and i said, james carville. james: i used to think that when i went on television and i said something it would convince somebody. so much for that rot. one thing, it is going to be one hell of a big story the day after the election. turnout is going to be a hell of a big story. people say this is not normal. you're very observant. [laughter] you're very observant, it is not , and you're going to see it. we're talking about foreign policy, so i was thinking, coming here, to this nice prestigious hotel that invited us to be here, something i can tell my grandchildren or something -- but so i can give bull- answer nice or i can tell you the truth. foreign policy's influence on this election is going to be about that much. the great foreign-policy question of 2014, pulling back from argentina and i'm reading a college professor i don't know anything about, ebola -- that was the great crisis in october of and i'm reading a business 2014. foremostcle, and the expert on ebola was a scientist at tulane meskill school, a

i think james carville said it best when he said anybody that was in to supporting a blue wave tonight it's not going to get it maybe you get a ripple but i certainly don't think that there's only way or behind him right there i don't think we're ready for. it so we may get a ripple rather than a blue wave is that means you're right well i mean the truth is if you look at the structure of the electorate if you look at the mandate coming from the voters it is a mixed mandate i mean in the house we are seeing a big turnover but even if the democrats win the expectations is that they'll have only about ten to twelve seats in the majority that's a very thin margin and for a lot of those people eleven to twelve of them have pledged not to vote for nancy pelosi as speaker so that will send a lot of you know you're not going to have that kind of diverse decisive bloc that you could expect if it was a wave election so what about the notion that this vote has been a referendum on dog will trump. if you believe that what's what's the what's the grade that he's getting from the voters he's gettin

we have james carville and michael steele joining us next. also, more road warriors coming up in virginia, minnesota, arizona, and here in georgia. bellwether races you're going to want to watch. - [announcer] the typical vacuum head can struggle with large debris and stuck-on dust, so shark invented duoclean, replacing the front wall with a rotating soft brush. while deep cleaning carpets, two brush rolls pick up large particles with ease, make quick work of stuck-on dust, giving hard floors a polished look, and fearlessly devour piles. shark duoclean technology, designed to do more on carpets and floors, available in corded and cord-free vacuums, and only available from shark. discover card. on carpets and floors, i justis this for real?match, yep. we match all the cash back new cardmembers earn at the end of their first year, automatically. whoo! i got my money! hard to contain yourself, isn't it? uh huh! let it go! whoo! get a dollar-for-dollar match at the end of your first year. only from discover. i couldn't catch my breath. it was the

then that belies the old james carville it's just the economy, stupid. >> well, remember, when james hat, he was running an insurgent candidacy against an incumbent president. these midterm elections are a referendum on the incumbent. that's why that number that you showed is important. the difference in this election is that the president has some guardrails in that the senate map is so hostile to democrats that it prevents major losses there and the house is so redistricted and we're so partisanized now that there are limits to what democrats can do. he's insulated in that way. i agree with doris completely. the truth is that whatever you think about what the president has done, he has rallied his base and the question is, those independent voters, who john avalon was talking about earlier, how are they reacting to his closing act and will he drive some of them away? >> the evidence so far is that they don't love it. that's what we're seeing in the polls. >> right. >> a reporter i revere wrote yesterday the framing of this election, that it's elemental. what kind of country american

it seems they were wrong i think james carville said it best when he said anybody that was in to subpoena blue wave tonight's not going to get it maybe you get a ripple but i certainly don't think that there's a way we're here to do that appearance in texas which was seen as a bellwether a senate race the republican ted cruz won. this election was a battle of ideas but it was a contest for who we are and what we believe. the house is a much closer cool democrats have had key wins in pro trump and traditionally republican districts but whatever the final numbers for the house democrats will undoubtedly come out of this feeling brought the disappointed. ok a mile what was behind the disappointment why did the blue wave the democrats hope for failed to materialise. well there were a lot of factors going into tonight and one of them was trump coming out and campaigning very strongly for a lot of candidates in some very tricky close races including two that i should mention one is the gubernatorial race in florida where the democrat and or guillem conceded a little while ago that was a very cl

amazing it's always been about the economy the very famous political strategist under clinton james carville said it's the economy stupid and in this case trump has delivered results three point seven percent unemployment four point zero per. one it's about what is it he talked about that the president was announced why he was almost ignoring the good economic data and he said it's because people get bored with good news yeah well i think that is true that people become complacent and they don't get out and vote and they're motivated by anger and if you'll remember in two thousand and sixteen he tapped into the collective anger in this country he kind of threw a hand grenade into the establishment and people felt disenfranchised and left behind and we've had many walk away individuals from the democratic party so that's a wild card tonight are the end of pendants and also the millennial and their registration. and they normally as a voting block don't show up to vote in stormily older people and you know the most important block tonight will be suburban women and we've seen already that this

if we focus on the james carville maxim, "it's the economy, stupid." economy is strong, why should people want to change course, accepting all the things you said, why would they want the change course with the economy humming like this? >> because i think one thing people realize is that we're in a sense riding a sugar high from a $2 trillion tax cut that was unpaid for. now, the economy is doing pretty well right now. i grant that. i think the hangover is going to be pretty bad as we go into next year, but we can debate that later. what i think people are concerned about is they're concerned about this president that frankly, even if you agree that the economy is going well, that we need to have some level of check on him. the founders set up a system of checks and balances. we have a president in donald trump that is totally unchecked at this point, and rule of law and frankly america's standing in the world is being undermined. >> dickerson: i want to ask you about election security, but quickly on the intelligence committee report, your own report

i think james carville said it best when he said anybody that was in dissipating a blue wave tonight's not going to get it maybe you get a ripple but i certainly don't think that there's only way or behind him right there i don't think. maybe you get a ripple you don't get a wave well i mean as she's probably pointing out you know the white house is obviously going to highlight the good news of the night in deep red states ruby red states the factor played a very positive role for republicans in districts and suburban districts women turned out to me to movement went from a movement to a real political force and delivered a lot of democrats and what we're seeing right now is the swing area in the united states continues to be the midwest where a lot of these states the old blue wall as tell young conway would say you know when for trump and twenty sixteen is delivering a lot of these victories in governor's races and house races the democrats these cleavages in american society that we talked about that maybe shocked two years ago it seems that they're just more permanent than they wer

i think james carville said it best when he said anybody that was in to supporting a bully way of tonight's not going to get it maybe you get a rebel but i certainly don't think that there's only way or behind it and i'm right here all right so she's turned that wave into a ripple i mean she seems coming off of it should she be i mean the mandate here is for is pretty mixed i mean we have as as was mentioned in the report a polarized electorate and you're seeing that polarized electorate demonstrate itself in two different ways trump's base supporters and red states you know dark red states are delivering him victories in the senate that are pretty pretty decisive on the other hand we're having pretty decisive victories in the house so we're going to get to split mandates which are going to create more conflict and gridlock in washington and if the democrats ok let's say they do retake the hells will the future of the u.s. be rosy i mean we've got a divided congress now taking us into twenty twenty i mean this is basically how the system supposed to work i mean this is checks and balances a

wednesday morning we'll find out if that slogan james carville inswrented for bill clinton in 1991 is still powerful today. here is the lay of the land. the latest numbers from real clear politics show republicans having 194 seats in the house with dems 202. the top-up number is 39. it's shaping up top the highest voter turnout in more than five decade. dozens of states already voting. surpassing the number of ballots in 2014. it's the final countdown. we have all the key races covered with reporters coast to coast. we'll get to jeff flock who is in fort wayne, indiana where president trump is kicking off a rally moments from now. reporter: if the republicans don't do well tomorrow you might be able to blame the president for the message. maybe not making enough of the economy or making too much of judge kavanaugh and the caravan. but you don't be able to fault him for his efforts. here in fort wayne an overflow crowd as we often see at these rallies. this president has certainly made an incredible effort to get the vote out and get his people elected. so however it comes tomorrow, i

the great refraint, we learn from james carville, it's the economy, stupid.be trump wiped out isis, nobody those would. maybe he created these jobs obama kept swraig is he going to get them? he has done all of these things. but the prince of the air is the national media. they control what the people hear and see, so they will have an impact. we'll see what happens tuesday. liz: we see it. the viewer is not buying it. they see the facts. they are not buying the media narrative. we love how you laugh over history. love having you on. democrat nancy pelosi already claiming that the democrats have won the house. it is a nail biter. look at this. nancy pelosi is saying they will turn down the crazive rhetoric upon when the democrats regain power. they will be civil only when they get back in power it sounds like what hillary clinton said recently. we'll have more after the break. stay there. - [voiceover] this is an urgent message from the international fellowship of christians and jews. there is an emergency food crisis for elderly holocaust survivors in the for

remember james carville said it. healthcare, the number one pocketbook issue. it did help fuel the democrats to a big victory in the house. later in the show. marijuana stocks popping after jeff sessions resign. we'll show you which ones are really moving. can business is climbing. stay with us. at t. rowe price our experts go beyond the numbers to examine investment opportunities firsthand. like e-commerce spurring cardboard demand. the pursuit of allergy-free peanuts. and mobile payment reaching new markets. this is strategic investing. because your investments deserve the full story. t.rowe price. invest with confidence. i saw my leg did not look right. i landed. i was just finishing a ride. i felt this awful pain in my chest. i had a pe blood clot in my lung. i was scared. i had a dvt blood clot. having one really puts you in danger of having another. my doctor and i chose xarelto®. xarelto®. to help keep me protected. xarelto® is a latest-generation blood thinner that's... proven to treat and reduce the risk of dvt or pe blood clots from happening again. i

if you remember the famous james carville line 1992 on the clinton campaign with the blackboard it's the economy stupid. focus on the economy. but when the economy is bad there's a good chance they will punish the president. if the economy is good they vote on something else. some people will reward a president when the economy does well but not nearly as many that will punish when it doeslyer badly. so gdp is growing at three.5 percent. second quarter was four.2 percent unemployment was three.7 percent this morning. that is fabulous. almost the best in 40 years. that's terrific but job approval rating is not in a good place. y-letter? i probably should not do this but to use a family example. [laughter] we could have an unemployment rate of zero, we could have gdp twice the rate of what it is my wife and daughter will still really, really dislike trump and hold that against anybody wearing his jersey. it's not always the economy. so the last couple things on pulling thing getting to elections in the wall we look atsi intensity a couple different ways how strongly do they feel this?

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i think back to mary madeline and james carville. this is a thing that happens in washington.ference here which is interesting is they are both republicans. >> he said -- >> george conway is a conservative who was nominated for a senior position at the justice department. he took himself out of the running. we forget about that. these are two republicans who as many republicans do radio right now, disagree over president trump. >> speaking of that nomination, he said he was asked about why he turned down the opportunity and this is what he said. >> i'm watching this thing and it's like the administration is like a [ bleep ] and a dumpster fire. i'm like i don't want to do that. i don't know. then you got the comey firing and then you got him going on tv saying i had russia on my mind. it's like oh, no. and then it's like i'm driving home one day from new york and it's like robert mueller appointed special counsel. this guy will be at war with the justice department. >> that are answer is the classic case of don't just read what he said. you need to hear how he says it. you pic

it's the economy stupid, as james carville said, or maybe now not so much. abby phillip is at the white house for us. the president's consistent message once again is be afraid. i wonder why the focus remains there when they've got economic gains to talk about this morning. >> that's right, kate. they have really good economic news at their backs, but president trump has been really focusing and fixating on this immigration message. it's a message that's aimed directly at his base, and yesterday, he even used the white house and really the force of the entire federal government to back up this push to get tough on the border. he said that next week he would be signing an executive order making it more difficult for migrants to gain asylum when they get to the border. but he also suggested that one of the reasons for this push was the idea that in the last week or so, given the package bombs being sent to news organizations and to prominent democrats and also that massacre at a synagogue in pittsburgh, had slowed republicans' momentum going into the midterms.

was in tallahassee, florida, after a deluge of biblical rain and after listening to coverage, james carville comes on at the 10:00 o'clock hour and says it seems to be a trickle and the wave doesn't seem to be happening. within 20 minutes it starts coming in, in the west. those in pennsylvania turning purplish blue but where democrats are building is in the west, not the east, colorado where democrats had a huge night. in places like the rust belt where donald trump managed to eke out a 77,000 vote win, in places like wisconsin, which had -- let's keep in mind, one of the most aggressive voter suppression campaigns we've seen outside the south in 2016, 200,000 people were unable to register, et cetera. they can't do that now. the governorships are huge. it's so important to win back the statehouses governorships you said lost in 2010. that protects millions and millions of voters in color going into the next election. the optic of democrats are always losing lives forever, political journalism starts with default democrats are doing poorly and goes from there. democrats did really well, real

spouses you can have very different set of opinions, we've seen that with others, mary madeline, james carville granted they were two opposite parties. i think one other thing, what i found amusing about the clip you showed, the trigger point for george conway saying i don't want to be going into the administration was more the pain of filling out the financial disclosure forms, too, and whether this was worth it, and that is actually something for any appointee that has to face. you know, when there's so much controversy surrounding the administration -- >> you don't know how long you will last, right? >> well, i thought it was an interesting choice of words that he used, too, when he described the administration as watching a dumpster fire. just yesterday, in fact, a senior administration official told our jake tapper that there are arsonists and there are firefighters in the trump administration and he says that the president wants to keep the arsonists. anita, what does that tell you about the president's instincts to keep the folks who cause the trouble? >> well, i just think, you know, we

, paula jones, and ken starr and many of the players from the independent counsel office, and james carvilleblumenthal, and the goal was to be as complete a story ri as we could, and the main thing is that what i thought i knew about these events living through them, i knew very little. >> what did you take away that surprised you when it was all said and done? >> there's a lot of -- and so many things. the big thing that struck me is that there are a lot of women who figure into the story and not just monica lewinski, but juanita broderick and paula jones and so many, and i think that are portrayed as one dimensional and they come a wwa as three dimensional and not just caricatures. >> thank you for coming in, claire foster. ♪ ♪ i'm all for my neighborhood. i'm all for backing the community that's made me who i am. i'm all for my theatre, my barbershop and my friends. because the community doesn't just have small businesses, it is small businesses. and that's why american express founded small business saturday. so, this year let's all get up, get out and shop small on november 24th. i got

carville comes on and says -- james carville is a smart guy.comes on and says, comes on like jacob marley. >> he did it, van jones did it. >> everybody did it. >> why are democrats so nervous? they're all going in this election, oh, we're going to do it again like '16. what is that nervousness? ptsd? what is it? >> well, for me, it was ptsd. i definitely was in the fetal position around 8:00. >> you're pretty young, but you have been through other elections where you thought you would win and you did win. it's not like '16 was the only election in history. >> just the most recent in history, so that's fresh. >> there are many complications with hillary. >> early on tuesday felt like 2016, but difference is women saw what happened in 2016 and they stepped up themselves. i think the big message from this election is not just that women won but that women chose to step up and run for office. we're seeing that in other context in american culture. we lived through a year of me too, a year of women standing together and telling their truth, being br

. >> james carville, thank you for being with us tonight. >> thank you for having me. >> great to be able to toss questions to you about the democratic party going forward. i'm told there is some news out of the state of florida. steve kornacki, it can't be that it's further tightened. >> well, let's show you the bottom line in the race for u.s. senate. you see rick scott continuing to lead here. the margin about 56,000 votes. also the margin when you just look at the decimal points here. 50.3/49.7. 0.6 of one point. we said this earlier, but to remind everybody, one of the reasons you do not see a check mark next to rick scott's name is, there are still potentially some outstanding precincts here. even a slight, and i mean very slight, like one-tenth of a point improvement for nelson in that margin would bring that down to 0.5 of a point, and that would trigger an automatic recount. if you're at half a percent or less, automatic recount. nelson on the cusp of that. not all precincts in. we're still trying to make sense of that completely. it's still the possibility there this could

just for our audience he was actually calling me stupid that's a thing from a past election to james carville i think it was said it's all about the economy stupid so he was in college you stupid just want to clarify that. this country is. more to fear his story by treaty i keep thinking in one thousand nine hundred sixty eight was the country more divided than the now it just feels as if this country if you look at these vote totals they're so close is it worse than sixteen or is it i sure if it's different although it's turning to look a lot like sixty eight and also remember that nine hundred sixty used at the beginning one thousand sixty's through then can sixty eight are still passing the civil rights laws including the voting rights act so who could actually vote in this country looks very different but in two thousand and eighteen we're actually seeing something very similar in terms of who can vote in this country who is allowed to vote in this country that is also breaking down along partisan lines that we didn't used to break down along partisan lines per se but actually what's comi

james carville famously worked on 40 campaigns before he won his first one and the second one was bill clinton. you have to keep at it, and the best this is probably how you ended up in this situation but the best advice i try to give everyone is whenever you're choosing where to work for in a campaign or politics chooz the person you want to win not the person you think is going to win. once again for someone you are passionate for, the people who work for beta o'rourke, they feel so much better even though he lost, because they felt they were part of something special. so just keep doing it and know to yourself that every campaign even a losing one, particularly in a key state like this sets up the next one. the voters who registered, the doors you knock, the list you cleaned up. the message you got out there you slowly moved. it's not as fast as we'd like but it's progress in the right direction. we talked a lot about the issues in the where you say have the issues we were not going to solve while obama was president because politics is slow, republicans are intransient, but we thou

you can be james carville and go look at the caravan. looking at their son that's got a kppreexisting condition who's a diabetic and his medication is $2,000 a month. >> literally. >> we had somebody show us their medication. my child is a diabetidiabetic, $2,000 a month. they're not thinking about caravans. they're thinking of rick scott being really proud of attacking the affordable care act constantly. >> those are the co-pay voters. you go to cvs and stand in line and listen to the co-pay that many people have to throw in to get their prescriptions, it is astounding. >> when it was first passed it was very controversial, red scare and socialism. people have had obamacare now for a few years and they've had the protections of the program for a few years and now republicans are campaigning on taking it away. >> let's go to wisconsin where that exactly is playing out. joining us now democratic senator tammy baldwin. thanks very much for being on the show with us this morning. >> good morning. >> i'm curious. is there any challenge to se

remember james carville. the phrase it's the economy, stupid. look at the number and paychecks.nd 401(k), since he has been president, everything looks better. so, how is it -- what are democrats missing? >> well, democrats are missing a lot. but we don't have that kind of time to go into it. in a way, if you look at it, the labor department already said we have the largest increase in i would say, probably 8 years. since 2008. you saw -- i'm sorry, since 2008, you didn't see this kind of increase. september of 2017 to september 2018, we saw 2.9% in wages. people remember that now when to vote, you think about the money in your pocket. you think about the economy. i don't think we really even have to talk about it. i mean, actions speak louder than words. if you are going home and your paycheck is larger, that's what you have. ainsley: robert, what's your response to that why do democrats take a step back they might not agree with the rhetoric and tweets. if you look at your pocketbook and our economy and country, why aren't more democrats supporting him? >> well a few things. o

james carville famously worked on 40 campaigns before he won his first one and the second one was bill clinton. you have to keep at it, and the best this is probably how you ended up in this situation but the best advice i try to give everyone is whenever you're choosing where to work for in a campaign or politics chooz the person you want to win not the person you think is going to win. once again for someone you are passionate for, the people who work for beta o'rourke, they feel so much better even though he lost, because they felt they were part of something special. so just keep doing it and know to yourself that every campaign even a losing one, particularly in a key state like this sets up the next one. the voters who registered, the doors you knock, the list you cleaned up. the message you got out there you slowly moved. it's not as fast as we'd like but it's progress in the right direction. we talked a lot about the issues in the where you say have the issues we were not going to solve while obama was president because politics is slow, republicans are intransient, but we thou

katie: james carville says famously it's the economy, tuned.t we're currently in. >> that isn't how we would phrase it and we would try to say it's healthcare, stupid. we still have a 16-point margin there the economic numbers are undoubtedly great for the republican party. that's higher than in 2016 and 2014. if you unpack them a little bit more, you see that only 25% though think that they are better off than they were before donald trump came into office. and 60% say that they are still about where they were. so i think there is kind of a glimmer in there but, at the end of the day, democrats are messaging on healthcare over 52% of our ads are focused on it, as i said 16 point advantage there. and they are just going to keep hammering that message until we somehow survive tuesday. katie: kayleigh, republicans are making closing arguments, they need to hold onto the house according to the candidates and make sure nancy pelosi doesn't get back to the gavel. what are you seeing in the rnc final days of the closing arguments? >> certainly the ec

. >> i think james carville said it best when he said anybody that was anticipating a blue wave tonighting to get it. maybe you get a ripple, but i certainly don't think there's a blue wave. >> cecilia vega, people in the white house feeling a lot better right now than they did going into today. >> george, leading up to tonight, every white house official, senior white house official, and even republicans on capitol hill were convinced that the house would fall to the democrats. they were heading into this night, thinking that this was their loss. essentially tomorrow morning they would be back into a corner, facing things like investigation and the big other "i" word, impeachment. >> we do have another result coming in right now, comes from the state of pennsylvania. congressman connor lamb, democrat, he is going to win right there, his race against congressman keith rothfus. he had to run in a new district after the state supreme court threw out the old districts and jon karl, he's going to win there. third pickup for the democrats. >> he's going to win. expected to win. frankly, his