and our trader talk on this friday morning, james ramelli of keene of the market.com joins us and james... it's going to be an interesting trade today-- the market is closed on mondays. so what will be your trade of the day? > > my trade of the day might be no trade. this has been a very interesting week for the stock market. we've seen some really bullish price action but that action has been on very little volume. we've had one of our lowest volume days of the entire year this week, and while the market continues to head higher, i don't necessarily trust it at these levels. what we're seeing is very light volume in the options markets as well which tells me one of two things: either options traders have already gone on vacation or they don't believe in this rally. either way i think that the market is going to be very choppy going through the rest of today. we don't have any economic data to speak of except for new home sales. outside of that's it's going to be a really quiet catalyst-free day. > > what about the lowdown on the vix? these are levels we have not seen in a while. > > ri

joining us now is james ramelli of keenonthemarket.com. james, is this the stock you would play? > > yes absolutely, it's been under pressure but what we see is that it's actually a pretty strong performer on earnings. it's rallied five of the past eight quarters on earnings day and on average moves around 8 percent. the options market is currently implying the stock can move around $3 which is just around 8 percent by friday's expiration and i think that expectations in the soda stream earnings are very very low and if they come in with any kind of good number, the stock could get a good bid here. i want to get long in soda stream with an upside target around $3 higher, we saw a nice move higher in green mountain coffee. they're in a similar type business and i think that any good number out of soda stream earnings could send the stock higher. > > how much do you think investors are counting on starbucks taking a large stake in soda stream? > > i think they're probably pricing in that news quite a bit if that doesn't happen, the beauty of options is that i know my downside risk

james ramelli of keenonthemarket.com joins us now. good morning, james. > > good morning. > > well our shopping cart runneth over with retail stocks today starting with tiffany reported earnings. traditionally does this stock sell-off on earnings? > > traditionally it's a mixed performer on earnings. over the past eight quarters it's actually sold off four times and rallied four times with an average move around four and a half percent. this go round the options market is implying a round of four and a half percent move for tiffany by this friday's close. what's really interesting here is that that target would line up around the $93 level and on tuesday going into the close we saw a lot of institutional money coming in and buying complex options strategies known as one by 2 call spreads with a target of around 93. so when i see institutional money getting long t i f with that target around 93 which also lines up with a lot of historical and implied levels, i want to do the exact same thing so i am long tif through earnings here with a

james ramelli of keeneonthemarket.com tells me he wants to talk donuts and discounters this morning. morning, james. look at the historical performance, we actually see a little bit of a bullish look there. the stock has rallied 5 of the past eight quarters. i like big lots because it's a traders stock. on average on earnings day it moves 11.2% and like i said, the chart is setting up very neutral here, however order flow has been very very bearish. all throughout this week and through last week we saw a lot of very large blocks of bearish spreads being put on in big lots. institutional money coming in and selling calls to buy put spreads-- that's extremely bearish activity. when institutional money gets short of stock, i want to get short of stock with them. they're implying a move of around $3.65. so i'll be looking for a downside target in big lots right around $33. > > which is so odd because you would think that the american public would be shopping at big lots and maybe the company would come out with great sales numbers... let's move on to krispy kream-- let's talk doughnuts. >

james ramelli of keene on the market.com is standing by with today's chart talk. good morning james. > >good morning. > > what do you think about some possible stocks to pop this spring? > >i think that a lot of these social media and tech stocks that have gotten beaten up through the first part of the second quarter are starting to represent good value. when markets get frothy, it's important to look for value in stocks. i don't want to buying into charts that look overbought. one really good example is yelp. we saw a very strong year out of them. they're not yet a profitable company but momentum has been to the upside. stocks like that that have come off quite a bit from their highs could start to represent good value. like i said, when markets get choppy and people are uncertain, it's prudent to look for this type of value. > >what other names do you like and what do you see in the options market? > >pandora is another stock that made a really nice run in 2013 but may have gotten beaten up toward the second half of the first quarter or the beginning of the secon

good morning to james ramelli who's watching the charts for us. james, this stock could be hard to fight. it has been going higher into earnings. >>it has but if we take a look at how it performs on earnings day, it's actually a relatively mixed mover. it sold off 4 times and rallied 4 times over the past 8 quarters. what makes chevron tricky to trade on earnings is the fact that it doesn't move that much. the stock is trading just under $125 and they're only implying around a $2 move to expiration today. so it's not going to be a stock that's a high flyer. i was looking to get short premium and try and fade that movement into chevron. i was not filled in by a trade but i don't think that we're going to see any huge moves higher. we have seen nice bids in a lot of the other big cap oil names. i do think chevron is going to rally but i don't think it's going to move very much. >>maybe not so much now but you're thinking maybe long term? >>right. i think that this is one that's going to grind higher over the long term. that's typically how this stock