we're back with jan hatzius . a risk. there was there is a divergence here. at is this part line telling you about actual conditions ja?: jan: the a low-lying is are we -- weightedof average of long-term rates and credit rates. the weeks are chosen to mimic the impact of each of these variables on gdp growth over the next year. when it is high that means we restrict the negative impulse and vice versa. is essentially our rules for financial conditions. we have a federal reserve that would like a natural conditions bench how far the way our away the -- how far away they are, when the inflation is high and the economy is overheating. now, the line is relatively low because inflation is quite low rate but actual financial conditions o have tightened quite sharply. there has been a lot of tightening that the markets have put in place right there is an incentive for the market to push against the tightening to ease financial conditions and push it back to appropriate conditions. totallynot be mechanical about that. these role model calculations right it is more of

jan hatzius is the chief economist at goldman sachs. you have been saying september since june, others have joined your camp. what do you see that so many others do not? jan: it is looking at what the committee seems to be communicating at how things are developing relative to that. we switched our call to september from december right after the meeting in june because it seems like the message sent by chair yellen was more of a december baseline message it and then the question was really, did things after that come in stronger than what she expected at that time? the answer to that is no. in our economy, it is fairly close to expectations. in the financial environment, clearly weaker than those were expecting. that said, pretty clearly, unless our assessment of where she was back then was very wrong, that should not even close a call this week. joe: if the fed looks of the economy right now, let's ignore the market volatility for a moment right if the fed looks of the economy is a severe not there yet, what are we going to see between