tom: jan hatzius predicts boring meeting. it is after-the-fact.att boesler with a really important question. making very clear this is about the present base effect analysis versus the truly ex post inflation expectation game. which is it? is this analysis of base effect dynamics or is it truly traditional fed analysis of an nation expert patients? jan: you mean what happens in 2023? tom: the mystery of how we get out. jan: i think that will be driven more by what you think about how tight the labor market is in the traditional stuff. the near term inflation increase is partly base effect, it is partly reopening effect, and it is bottlenecks, which michael just talked about. lisa: before we get into the granularity of inflation, i want to understand the granularity of tapering. people talk about as though it is a monolith but is it getting to zero, getting to know bond purchases before they hike rates? jan: that is our assumption. they have not said that explicitly but i would guess they are going to get to zero and then there will be some time th

jan hatzius as well.rning. ♪ look...if your wireless carrier was a guy, you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better - xfinity mobile. now, they have unlimited for just $30 a month. $30 dollars. and they're number 1 in customer satisfaction. his number? delete it. deleting it. so break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit an xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ >> yo

jan hatzius to join us later on the fed.

morgan tell us he stands by their low statistic, and jan hatzius said we are going back sub 3% gdp.re focused on that. jonathan: i imagine you believe this is daylight, between the likes of lead, kaplan, and the likes of williams. tom: there's daylight, but there's supposed to be. the independence of the fed. they are supposed to argue. it is normal to be that way. i think we do the world-class best interviews of central bankers worldwide, but this interview with john williams is going to be intense this morning. he has to re-justify their math. jonathan: mike mckee helping to lead that interview at 9:30 eastern this morning. coming up on this program, binky chadha, deutsche bank chief global strategist. looking forward to that conversation with your s&p 500 approaching 4220. we advance a little more than 0.1%. your yield is 1.4886%. euro-dollar back down to $1.1899. live on tv and radio, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one

a joy to have jan hatzius join us in studio yesterday.mark of had cs -- of hatzius' conversation yesterday was a gdp under 3% out somewhere. david wilson is our bloomberg stocks editor. this is our linkage at the hip, bonds and equities. what is normal? dave: normal over the last 20 years is that they tended to move in opposite directions. we are talking price. tom: for radio, we've got to get the hands out. stop rice up, bond price -- -- stock price up, bond price -- lisa: up, and therefore yields down. if you own both for the sake of diversification, you've got what you wanted. lately, and has been a very different story. the chart focuses on a 90 day correlation between s&p 500 futures and 10 year treasury futures. in fact, that has turned positive. you've got readings of about 0.4 at this point, the highest since november 1999. if you go back to the 1980's and 1990's, you can see that stocks and bonds did tend to move together then. it is just in the last 20 years, it has been the opposite. now we are kind of reverting back to the pas

ronnie walker with jan hatzius, talking about the supply constrained inflation, and when will it drift away. jonathan: we are talking about the end of summer, the start of fall. august, september, october. if you've got to wait until then to get a clean read on the data which is the pressure to move for we see that i, data? -- that economic data? tom: what is so important here, yield always leads the way, and yield and spread is speaking right now. lisa: the yield is going lower, confirming the transitory view of the federal reserve, but you are seeing tighter credit spreads. it goes back to what jon was talking earlier, goldilocks. we back to goldilocks -- are we back to goldilocks? tom: issuance is a big deal. was there issuance, and was there a change in that dynamic in the first half? lisa: in the first half there was a record pace of issuance, particularly for riskier debt. a lot of it did go down to paying existing obligations. collateralized loan obligations, which would be leveraged packaging of leveraged loans, the clo's, the record pace of sales. all-time high. tom: very good