joining us is jane foley. thanks for joining the program this morning.had stocks give up a lot of the initial gain they had after that cpi, but the dollar losses were able to stick around. we were just talking during the commercial break and you were saying this is basically the big move we are going to get. why do you think powell and co. won't be packing as much of a punch in today's decision? >> now it's priced in. we had a huge dollar move. when we go into the fed meeting with the dollar having already sold off quite significantly, that changes the perspective a little bit. it's moving lower and that's a huge relief. core cpi is still three times bigger than the fed would like it to be and that suggests the fed is still going to hike more. it's probably still good a couple of 25 basis point moves in its pocket. what the market really wants to see our two things. a, where is the peak level going to be in the other thing is will powell push back against the loosening and financial conditions we have seen. he didn't really push. the fact that he didn't

jonathon: jane foley rabobank from is this u.s. economy picking up or slowing down? jane: this is going to be a really bumpy ride. there are different dynamics here and you had spoken about it. if we look at the oecd data, they have labor market shortages. this is in part a demographic issue. if you look at the u.k., almost 20% of us are over 65. there will be a shortage of labor. when we talk about our critical industry, pharmaceuticals, food, energy, it will be difficult to continue without encountering these shortages. you have this issue of fed interest rates irrespective of whether it is 5% or five .25. given that the equity market has rallied, it will be sensitive to that sort of information that leads us to assume that the fed rate can be higher for longer. tom: 18 of 38 oecd countries are enjoying double-digit inflation. how does your world change or adapt to that? do you become more and dollar centric in your analysis? jane: persistent inflation, labor market shortages but europe is where inflation is quite dangerous because at the moment, we have seen the eu

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