janet yellen hinted at that today. the fed is not back at 2% inflation until 2018. , we watched core inflation more than the headline. isis fact it will backslide given the dollar strength we have seen. at the market move. .67 print on the two yields. extraordinary. >> people are watching everything. do you agree there has been a shift? the affluence he led by janet yellen is finally acknowledging there is a hurdle? when you set an inflation target, you have to pay attention to it. >> absolutely. i'm getting to feeds here. let me go back. the key thing here has been the persistence of it, inflation.target the longer that persists, the longer it seems that is not doing what any to do to get the basic mandate. i think that played a role in the playing a role today. tom: when we look at the moment to 1950, and going back and harry truman in the we haveent of the fed, come to a new point. are the models that she spoke of in the press conference going to be forever changed from what you used at carnegie mellon at richmond a

comments from fed chair janet yellen yesterday. for the dow industrials. we're expecting 250 point move at the open. european markets trading well this morning. take a look. triple digit moves in england, france, germany. across the board, ftse up better than 150 points. 3 1/2% rally in cac in paris. yellen telling audience at university of massachusetts that a rate increase will come this year. >> most fomc participants, including myself, we currently anticipate that achieving this conditions will likely entail a an increase in the federal funds rate later this year. followed by gradual pace of tightening thereafter. but if the economy surprises us, our judgments are data appropriate. excuse me. monetary policy will of course change. maria: my bet october on the fed increase. world comes to the united states. pope francis addressing united nations this morning in new york while in the nation's capitol china's president is expected to make a joint announcement on climate controls along with president obama. we're covering both stor

you either read it as janet yellen looking at inflation or this is janet yellen saying, i'm not sureoking at, i'm not sure if this is a recession. brendan: the other thing to pay attention to is that the fed looks at a different kind of dollar than you and i look at. we look at the dollar is a value against the major currencies. the fed is looking at a trade weighted dollar. that dollar is much stronger than the standard cross dollar with the euro and yen. the is another issue with what tom keene calls the "rubin dollar." francine: there is always one guy, one central banker favoring a negative interest rate. brendan: we know who it is. the most dovish member, a dovish convert voting member of the fed of the minneapolis fed. lastis his swan song, his year he is on the board, his last chance to affect policy. not only is that lonely little. gone negative, he does not see a raise until 2017. that is the first time we had a dot waiting until 2017. janet yellen said negative rates are not something we have ever realistically can uttered -- considered. subtext, i don't know what he was do

likelyth dot is highly janet yellen. it is position for the fed to hike rates at the next meeting where this press conference happens. that means janet yellen, the next meeting with the press conference in december will be a rate hike. tom: let's pause on this chart for a moment. this looks like something out of a jodie foster movie about going interplanetary. brendan: it does. like a videogame from the early 1980's. i remember them well. mike, the dots of course cluster the farther out you get into the future. dots time i see those cluster, it feels a little lazy to me. sometime in the future everything will be the way it used to be. can we still assume that we can cluster around 3%? tony: 3.5%. halfway through 2016. they adjust them all the time. their level is still above the level that the market sees the rates at, but the exact number, they move around. tom: tony, what does this mean for retirees, what we deserved yesterday at -- what we observed yesterday at 2:00 p.m.? you said the inflation distortion continues fo

joe: today we are from that child janet yellen who fed share janet yellen who reiterated that a ratey in the cards for 2015 but it was not a guaranteed saying. not a hawkish statement. move much. did not she continued to say that there was no reason to wait until inflation hit 2% but obviously she is paying attention to all of the things that are concerning everyone, global markets, financial volatility, the situation in china, and obviously the domestic economy. angie: joe weisenthal. time now for a look at the stories on the corporate terminal. here is shery ahn. sherry: the fallout from brazil's biggest scandal is widening. the offshore contractor is being linked to the petrograd corruption inquiry for the first time. a former executive has testified that someone pretending to be a transocean employee bribed him to win contracts. downs facing calls to step despite saying she knew of no wrongdoing when she was petrograd chairwoman. facebook is betting on virtual reality. sellculus unit is going to movies through the vr headset as it tries to make the device appealing to the average

#janet yellen.ave a look at social media reaction to >> a lot of hashtags trending that the reaction has been muted from key policymakers around the world but we did get comments from economist, from people in the finance industry following this decision. financial services firm raymond james tweeting out, its chief economist scott brown saying, the key issue is not the precise timing of the initial rate hike, but the pace of timing beyond that first move. we also have the head of u.s. macro economics -- greg -- saying #federal reserve will likely raise in december. but this will require a much, much better communication on hike and path. another person commenting on the timing of the next fed decision is an economics professor at the university of michigan, saying, yellen's claim that october is a live meeting sounds hollow. she has to say it is live. but what difference could a month make? october is not taking seriously because there is no press conference scheduled along with the rate decision t

janet yellen says the u.s.on track for this year unless something happens to the global growth environment, saying china. is withs is -- nicholas us today and he spends days lori on the hot miss yellen -- worrying on behalf of ms. janet yellen and liz is on top of what the markets are doing. odds of weare the will see something economically negative out of china? bad enough that it will derail plan?ds net: i think that is less than likely. we certainly see a slowdown in growth and i don't think the government is panicking. they have tools to offset that. it will be an increase in cyclical support through the economy into next year and the pboc has been on talk of monetary easing and i think i continues. china's economy is slowing down but we don't see that sharp this juncture. there are also a lot of regions where the growth rates are dramatically different, not to mention the difference between manufacturing part of the economy and more consumer parts. are those dispersions getting wider? i think that is mostl

janet yellen has confirmed by the u.s. is still on track to raise interest rates this year, but what factors are weighing on the central bank? most of my colleagues and i anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year, and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter. if the fomc were to delay the start of the policy normalization process for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting the bulk of articles. the united states has experienced very low inflation on average since the financial crisis. reflecting persistent economic weakness that has proven difficult to only counter with monetary policy. unwellanet yellen felt toward the end of her speech. she was given medical attention, and was ok by the end of it and was able to return. you just heard some of the key messages that she had to deliver. it will take a short break here and will ge

let's look at what janet yellen had to say. yellen: most of my colleagues and i anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range of the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter. if the fomc were to delay the start of the policy normalization process for too long, we would likely end of having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. the united states has experienced very low inflation on average since the financial crisis. in part reflecting persistent economic weakness that has proven difficult to fully counter with monetary policy. francine: we should of course mention that fed chair janet yellen has resumed her planned schedule after feeling unwell towards the end of that speech. she felt dehydrated and was seen by medical staff. let's introduce patrick you're sticking around for half an hour. thank you so much for joining us. janet yellen yesterday seemed to be

matt: does janet yellen address this directly?ve economist on all the time like alan krueger from princeton who says the reason you have so much, for example, or so little precipitation -- participation historically is that demographics of the country is changing but it has to come from somewhere and it can't come from retirees. increasedslack has and we do have fewer workers but the question is how much of it is demographics and how much is discouragement? alan krueger argues a lot of it is not discouragement mosey demographic. fromthose people are gone the labor force i want go back. a number of others say there is pool of people who would come back and we saw this in the 1990's when we had such a strong economy and unemployment got down into the trees. retirees decided i might as well work and make a little money because the economy is so strong and there are those that didn't even if we see a lot of people leave the labor force, they could be enticed to come back. or that, we need wage movement. matt: bloomberg news has drawn

janet yellen is about to give a major speech on inflation. will she use this chance to better explain the feds inking on interest rates? scarlet: that sinking feeling. we look at the emerging markets must -- emerging-market mess. joe: and norway's central bank unexpectedly lowers interest rates. what this means about the health of the developed world. we begin with the markets. andegin to mount a comeback to not have the juice and are closing in the red once again. for sectors closed in the green -- six out of 10 groups still down, led by health care and industrials. the outlook for inflation among investors is headed for the lowest since 2009. just another ugly day. we could not get act to but it was better than it could have it. one stock i was watching was the m w. a report early in the morning from a german newspaper that they might have some innovations issues of their own and the stock initially got them. late in the day, there was a clarification from the newspaper and it said we really don't have any indication that there were issues.

bam. >> this is a live shot of janet yellen, the fed chair.e from her speech taking place at the university of massachusetts that a rate hike could happen this year. we'll continue to monitor and bring you all the news. >> next, it's been a rough week for the nasdaq biotech index. one stock about to see major moves. meg tirrell has the breakdown after this. alaska. finally. the search for brown bears begins. denali highway. low on gas. pit stop. fill up. double points. yep, that's cold. tired. day 2. coffee. eggs. double points. beautiful. majestic... nothing. where are you, bear? warm. warmer. warmer. yes. wherever the journey takes you, carry american express gold. it's more than a card. it's the gear that gets it done. here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticip

janet yellen's comments seems to has refocused it a bit. she allowed it to influence the decision as much as it did. alix: one part of the story is about volatility. i want to take a dive into the bloomberg terminal. you can see the huge spike up at 21. let me put this into perspective. let's go back one week. look, higher volatility actually was. the front end was up by 8%. we can all freak out because markets fell and volatility has picked up that in relation to seven days ago, we are calmer. joe: the market generally is not like what it was a couple of weeks ago when it felt like panic time. i want to dive into my terminal. we talked about this idea that we haven't seen the type of market reaction you would expect to see. here is a chart of the brazilian real. you expect them to rally against the dollar. that did not happen. new lows in the real. alix: which is it worth? the dollar being stronger, or those countries are so bad that they can't rally even with a dovish fed? market selling off. our guest joins us now to break it down. what

now we go to amherst massachusetts to hear janet yellen. [applause] janet yellen: my thanks to the chancellors for this lovely introduction. my thanks to the university of massachusetts for the honor of being invited to deliver this year's philip gamble memorial lecture. in my remarks today, i will discuss inflation and its role in the federal reserve's a conduct of monetary policy. i will begin by reviewing the history of inflation in the united states is the 19 axes. highlighting two key points. inflation is now much more stable than it used to be. running it is currently at a low level. costs then consider the associated with inflation and why these costs suggest that the federal reserve should try to keep inflation closed to 2%. after briefly reviewing our policy action since the financial crisis, i will discuss the dynamics of of inflation and their implications for the outlook and monetary policy. anyucial responsibility of central bank is to control inflation. the average rate of increase in the prices of goods and services , keeping

janet yellen: we are getting closer. the labor market has improved. we do not want to wait until we have fully met both of our objectives to begin the process of tightening policy given the lags in the operation of monetary policy. reporter: unemployment is down to almost 5% and growth is accelerating. those facts alone could prompt a rate hike and janet yellen says that october is a possibility. if conditions continue to improve, it seems almost inevitable. >> what can you tell us about the markets in new york? reporter: it's interesting. we have to reactions. if you look at the stock market itself, first, there's not much going on in the dow jones at all until we are suddenly during janet yellen's press conference a spike for no account reason and it went away as fast as it'd come. an interesting reaction of traders on the floor when the decision came. there was quite astonishment here and were surprised. people were shocked. you can literally hear that on the floor. that was interesting because initially most evil and wall street had said that they

let's start with janet yellen. janet yellen, the federal reserve chairman.is out of the way, there were concerns about her health at that speech. you can read about that on twitter and websites. we want to focus on the substance of what she said. a lot of people talking about it right now. she clearly indicated she expects a rate hike in 2015. some of her fellow central bankers are commenting as well. he said, waiting to hear from yellen. it was quite a long speech in fact. brookings institution, which we know is top-flight, has great data on the janet yellen dashboard. shery: also trending, iphones. the launch of the success and -- 6s and 6s plus. just an upgrade from last year's model. is that an ipad she is holding? i have no idea. this is happening today. people excited about that. one person tweeting, today, the released was ribbon they posted a funny video. here is what you can do with it. it you can use it as a nepad. you can put your glass on top of it as a coaster. it is just a phone. people are dying because they do not have clean water. i repeat,

but the fed and janet yellen tells us that it is code for what happened in china. ie: you think he is listening to the imf warning, there is no expectation once you raise rates to go backwards/ . enda: only to reverse it later, i guess she wants to be sure that there is a lot of difference in the market. they know that it could trigger turmoil in american markets. a freshhat didn't cause downturn, more shame for the american market, the fed not want to take blame for that. angie: it is what i heard that was very interesting. janet yellen in her press conference saying that october and december good still see rates rise. a lot of people dismissed october as a possibility. is that back on the table? enda: i think it is still a possibility. economists are not sold on november just yet. we're back to yesterday, when -- the capital outflow story from impact on currency the region, we are back to where we started many ways. angie: how are emerging markets going to fare after this decision? put: it will hardly currencies that are vulnerable, like the malaysian currency, i

janet yellen talked about the economic outlook in the u.s.eing in line with what they expected during the press conference but at the same time pointed to international concerns over the stronger doll -- strong dollar. rishaad: -- angie: how long do they hold it off for? jeanna: that is a great question. so they have two more meetings this year, one in october and what in december. in december. theoretically they could raise rates at either of those but the october meeting is just six weeks away and the december meeting is at a point of volatility in the markets that we are not sure if they are concerned about. it also is not much more data, more time for the market to recover. you raise the probable it could be as late as 2016 at this point. -- problem it could be as late as 2016 at this point, some economists are saying. you could make markets think that any source of uncertainty means you will delay and the fact does not want to surprise the market because that will cause unneeded volatility so that is another risk of not hiking in septemb

maria: let's not forget what janet yellen said in her statement last week.it very stressed. she was saying housing should be stronger based on the demographics. >> what she says versus what happening. if you look at the u.s. economic data and all of this, the only accelerating data in the u.s. economy is housing. it was slow last week. u.s. housing has been prompted by interest rates testing all-time lows again. that the catalyst. the fed doesn't want to raise rates to stop the only good thing going on. dagen: i know we are so many yourself from the financial crisis. they've now moved back into housing because of the sentiment showed a willingness to step up and buy. >> if i'm right, they will go back to the all-time lows within the next three to six months. everybody's going to refinance and get a mortgage. it's free money. maria: as you analyze data that has been weak, you want to look at what's happening in terms of the dollar ended the dollar keeps going higher, what does that mean for stock. >> what it is doing right now is much like the new york giants

janet yellen saying a rate hike likely this year. there are two more scheduled policy meetings left. we'll ask one fed watcher what he expects the fed to pull the policy trigger. s&p down one and a quarter. nasdaq down seven points. very volatile session yesterday, nicole. nicole: look at asian stocks. shanghai, hang seng, kospi all gaining. nikkei pulling back 2%. nikkei the story. somewhat of a mixed bag this morning. lauren: how are stocks trading in europe? opened to the downside and trading to the downside. dax is down almost 2%. 1 1/2% decline in paris. ftse down 1 1/2%. nicole: chevron the best performer on the dow. crude oil is on the move. seeing it to the downside, down .75% at 46.55, lauren. lauren: show you gold prices. after the fed passed on the rate hike, investors putting their money here. $1133 a troy ounce. nicole: a lot of talk about the euro-dollar. let's see where it is. saw it pull back yesterday, gaining today against the green back. u.k. dollar, peso, all stronger against the dollar. lauren: strength against t

yellin, a -- and janet yellen, a superstar on today. john, thank you so much for joining us. john: you're very welcome. happy to be here. alix: if you were advising janet yellen today what would you say after today's report? john: i think more important is what i would have said yesterday afternoon, which is no single jobs report probably matters much. and probably shouldn't affect the view, the general view of the outlook and thereby shouldn't affect the policy decision much. i think there is a common misconception the fed may turn sharply on any given and that wasn't what i experienced. there have been a lot of very solid signals that the u.s. economy has been doing okay in the sogget growth we've seen for -- in these solid growth we've seen for several years now and so i think it would have been very surprising if there had been a weak jobs report. and as we saw, it was sort of right up the middle. and it shouldn't really affect the view of the policy makers much at all. on top of that, it turns out for the last several years august

so much for that relief rally on janet yellen's speech.the rally stayed as the day went on. we have seen the dow as the leader throughout the session. that continues. now it is counterpart -- now it's counterpart, the s&p 500s, and the nasdaq have turned lower, the nasdaq very solidly so. a big swing in an average today. techs --00 versus bio that is the biggest drag we are seeing today we are for the us of the 500, virtually all of its drag is from the health care groups. you have the s&p 500 in yellow versus, and white, the idb, an i-shares biotech etf. the idb has the drifting lower throughout the day. the s&p 500 was holding up well until around 2:15, when it broke down and started gaining steam to the downside. pharmaceutical stocks are some of the worst performers in the s&p 500 today. it was biotech, but it is also big cap pharma. all of this, a cell of continuing since hillary clinton tweeted a few days ago that she was looking into capping pharmaceutical prices. it is interesting that the selling in that group has not abated. it h

i'm not in the camp that janet yellen is all knowing. she missed her window and now she's reacting to the market. >> andrew jackson? that's a little much. >> some are saying that hamilton should never have created the fed. but you're the one who likes what they have been doing. >> when you have a job that needs to be done, send a woman. >> there we go. >> oh, wow. >> i have to send that to jonas. quick response. >> if if you look at the history of this country when we didn't have central banking, that was a scary time. i will take the frothiness over the panic. i personally think this is the strongest economy right now. personally, it is a fact and the whole world right now, and in that case as an american invest investor, you don't need safe havens like gold. in america, stocks and bonds do well. gold is down 40% over the last few years. as much as the stock market fell this 2008 that is not a safe haven for u.s. based investors. >> i want it give it over to susie. >> i have gold in my safe. i feel that there is value to gold. i won't g

janet yellen and her colleagues go beyond dovish. the reason behind their decision, and what it means. i michael mckee, along with tom keene. we have a market check. if the fed is worried about global growth, so are we. starting in asia, the nikkei 362 points. in europe, the stoxx 600 is awful by 1.8%. six points on the day. in germany, down 2.8%, 290 points. that pressure transfers to the s&p. that is a 1% drop for the dow and amenities, 100 73. the nasdaq is off 47, 1% as well. this is being reflected to a huge extent in the bond market. the 10-year note yield drops from yesterday, two .16%. it was almost 2.3% yesterday. the five-year, 1.4 four and six basis points for the two-year note. the dollar.ing your best proxy for immediately figuring out the market impact of the fed. the most traded currencies diving. implications for emerging markets, particularly europe and japan. the greeks go to the polls this weekend. they will answer the big question, who cares anymore? voter apathy is high for the third election this year. polls sho

you have janet yellen speaking tonight at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. you will watch the futures after the overall cash market closes. could be a wild evening as well. will she walk back interest rate expectation as soon as a lot more to do here on cnbc. thanks for watching, everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> yes, hi, and welcome to the "closing bell" i'm kelly evans. >> and i'm bill griffeth. it must be important because we're already sitting at the set at post 9 at the new york stock exchange. the dow has come back. we could be positive any moment here, we've come back from a 260 point decline earlier in this session. who knows, maybe it's on hopes that janet yellen could strike a more dovish tone when she speaks on market policy. that's coming up in two hours at 5:00 eastern time. meantime, the stock market still dragging down the markets. caterpillar is a huge decliner today after announcing this morning it is cutting 10,000 jobs. >> we will break down the ripple effects of that news coming up for you. also walmart stressing its supplier

fed it becomes about the when janet geller speaks later today. going to move markets. tom: i was going to open on the opening of the brazilian trading. this has been fabulous. david goldman, formerly of bank of america and mike mayo of clsa moyniharp comments on han. we will continue. really focused on the 5:00 p.m. speech of janet yellen. this is bloomberg surveillance. >> this is a bloomberg's "surveillance." good morning, everybody. 8:00 on wall street. auto investors shift into panic this morning. perhaps the pope can offer absolution. investors convinced today. i am michael mckee tom keene. let's get you caught up on the markets at this hour as to get closer to the opening. we will start in asia with the shanghai composite did not move a whole lot and finished up a little stability. fromesident xi has washington, leaving seattle for not soton, d.c. today, much stability in japan. investors unimpressed by the three newster abbe's areas of economics, we will talk about that today. the yen has strengthened considerably -- has fallen considerabl

we will look at what janet yellen might say later on today.ks like and has selected matthias mueller as its new chief executive according to the wall street journal. how the emissions scandal could affect the company overall. ♪ pimm: this is the bloomberg market day, i am pimm fox. betty: i am betty liu. we are coming off a little bit of a slow section. is here with the markets. ramy: investors are waiting to hear what janet yellen has to say. raise rates at this month, analysts are worried it could happen by the end of the year. stocks are down for a third straight session. nasdaq is down the most by about 1.3%. let's take a look at the caterpillar, it is one of the world's biggest mining equipment companies. china seen a slowdown in and in the emerging markets, it is down by 6%. by $1 its forecast million and cut the 2016 forecast by $2 million. -- by $1 billion and cut the .016 forecast by $2 billion volatility is at its highest in 10 days, folks are waiting for any indication of a fed rate raise. we may haver know, to wait through december

he and his wife janet had cleaned at thermo fisher for years. was one of the two to find michelle's body. >> detective mcvay interviewed him the day of the homicide, and really nothing that put him to the forefront of anyone's mind. >> reporter: and last, there was ed yuska. he was the supervisor who called 911 after finding michelle. >> the blood is right by her office door. it looks like she never got in her office. >> reporter: detective stahl found out that ed yuska had some health issues. >> the thought that ed could do all this to michelle, drag her down the hallway and get her to the mezzanine logically to us says ed's not our guy because he physically probably couldn't have done that. >> reporter: which made detectives feel comfortable eliminating ed yuska from their suspect list. and so then there were four. now, how to rule out the next one? the csi team had collected some dna from michelle's body and belongings, but detectives knew it would be months before a forensic lab could report whether any suspect was a match. meanwhile, invest

is that a sign from janet yellen yesterday? choking? feeling that she could not hike rates because the economy isn't strong enough meaning that the u.s. doesn't have a chance. if you are watching in the u.s., will you be watching the rugby world cup? do you care about rugby? >> you're already trash talking and the tournament hasn't even begun. >> it's important. new zealand, big, big favorites but the kiwi dollar is falling. they've had to ease. perhaps that shows weakness. >> well, new zealand, there you go, that's my picture of meeting them in hong kong in 2010, maybe i was a deciding factor. lucky charm in that rugby world cup win. >> what are you doing this afternoon? let's get you to the england team and get a photo. >> i could meet them, you think? >> i think. >> will johnny wilkinson be there too. >> he retired. >> i know. >> but we could arrange for him to be there. >> excellent. >> he'll be covering it for television i have no doubt about that. he's such a legend. >> he is such a legend. >> well, you know, we're going to talk a

charles: more details on janet yellen.he paused numerous times throughout the last page of her speech. i want to take a listen again. >> monetary policy will, of course, change. let me stop there. thank you. [applause] [applause] charles: and ambulance did come, but about ten minutes later they left without janet yellen, so she is not receiving medical attention. she has been taken off by her own motorcade. she was lightheaded, went to the green room, drink some water, and everything is okay. set to resume her schedule thursday. now i wanti want to get back to the pope for david's historic speech. herehere to break it down to congressman who attended the address. recently visited the vatican. thank you very much. the business to the vatican, tell us about that and your impression so far particularly with this joint session of congress? >> very father like command one of the surprise was that he had a great understanding of america's tradition and hit it out of the park when he said america is the land of the free end out t

janet yellen: inflation has continued to stay below our 10% objective. partly reflecting declines in energy and import prices. my colleagues and i continue to expect the effects of these factors on inflation will be transitory. however, the recent additional decline in oil prices and further appreciation of the dollar, mean that it will take a bit more time for these effects fully to dissipate. charlie: joining me now is glenn hubbard, the dean at columbia business school, a top republican economic advisor. gillian tett is a managing editor at the financial times. alan blinder is a professor at princeton university and a former fed vice chairman. david leonhardt of the new york times will be joining us. he has joined us now. i am pleased to have him as well. alan, give me a sense of what happened today. and because you have been there, what might these deliberations have been like? alan: i think they were contentious in a polite sort of way. everything is polite. the committee is divided. from the statement, you can tell clearly that janet yellen was on

janet yellen hugh?e streets to ask passers-by and we will share what we found. >> do you know, who this woman is? >> janet yellen the chairwoman of the fed. >> no. >> i have no idea. >> not at all. >> we're not from here. >> janet yellen. hi my name is tom. i'm raph. my name is anne. i'm one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here. usaa makes me feel like i'm a car buying expert in no time at all. there was no stress. it was in and out. if i buy a car through usaa, i know i'm getting a fair price. we realized, okay, this not only could be convenient, we could save a lot of money. i was like, wow, if i could save this much, then i could actually maybe upgrade a little bit. and it was just easy. usaa, they just really make sure that you're well taken care of. usaa car buying service. powered by truecar. online and on the usaa app. deirdre: do you kn

jonathan: are we expecting a different janet yellen today?developments this evening whatsoever? jim: she is an extremely careful communicator, i would not expect to get a lot of new news out of her speech. jonathan: your point on confusion is an important one, it is called federal confusion. we can't decide if it is positive or negative for risk because they have such a pessimistic view of the global economy. that is caused somewhat of a pullback. has that added on to risk? im: we have been reducing risk steadily in the wake of the downturn of the markets. we put our first step back into the markets, increasing our recommended exposure towards europe, the u.k., and japan. backe taking a first step towards increasing risk, but we want to see more confirmation that the economy is growing for us to increase. jonathan: one thing we do know is they hate frightening financial conditions. the question i have been asked is whether the federal reserve's concern has given investors the green light to buy credit again. is it a green light? m: we think t

. >> investors focus on key speech from fed chair janet yellen. the first since the controversial decision to hold off on interest rate hike. >> in politics, a new fox poll, shows unannounced candidate joe biden doubling his support. we'll have all the results. welcome to "fbn:am," everybody. first look at what is moving in today's markets, latest breaking news, what to expect for the day ahead. >> let's kick things off with breaking news this morning. at least 220 pilgrims killed in a stampede outside of the muslim holy city of mecca in saudi arabia. you're looking at pictures of that from earlier. two million people are recall pardon ming the performing the annual haj pilgrimage. they are having medical teams helping out but tragic news on a holy day. >> in asia let's look at the stocks. abe will be speak around 5:00 p.m. shanghai, kospi up. nikkei pulling back down 2.7%. >> opening for first day in the japan. the market has been closed five days. a long weekend for them. this is how stocks are trading. up arrows just fractionally. i do want to

joe: we had a huge surge in the wake of janet yellen's news.hey seem to like the slightly more hawkish yellen. it really gave it up -- the by a the biotechs got obliterated. a brutal dive. everything sells off. scarlet: everyone trading on momentum stocks now. -- everyone is hating on momentum stocks now. joe: everybody blames hillary clinton's tweet, but there has been this global sentiment shift that biotech's are caught in. we got strong revisions to q2 gdp. the personal consumption index grew 3.3%. this is the hero of the economy, the american consumer, u.s. consumption continues near its highest level. this is a 10 year chart. we are at the top of that range. scarlet: we will see if that continues to be the case on monday. i want to look at u.s. swap rates, what they paid for loading rates. when the great below treasury yield -- that is happening now. the 10-year maturity shows we are below that. the two-year spread is narrowing, 9.5 basis points. what is going on? large-scale selling of treasuries. companies issuing debts. regulation as a

janet yellen affirmed she is ready to raise rates at some point this year. here is what you need to know about her speech. >> most of my colleagues and i anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target rating to the federal funds rate sometime later this year, and to continue boosting short-term rates and a gradual pace thereafter. forc were to delay for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. united states has experienced very low inflation since the financial crisis. in part, that reflects persistent economic weakness that has proven difficult to fully counter with monetary policy. jonathan: let's get the conversation on central banks. gentlemen, great to have you with us this friday morning. charles, to you, i believe there are some available spaces on the board. if you were on the board, how would you be voting right now? charles: i think that i would have voted to raise rates, but 12.5 have raised them by basis points just to in

is janet yellen catching up with ubs? >> i think it is difficult to think of the fomc as a single person. it is a cluster of dots. -- not necessarily a cluster of dots, there are different views. but it is not as though there are two competing ideas. there are 17 competing ideas, and they are all being talked about. we do not even know what the probability of a rate move is. vonnie, you said 32%. if you look at the 2-year note, it is higher than 32%. higher commercial rates -- there are all these different ways to look at what the probability is. because we are moving in a range, it is less certain. say 17 opinions, but the three top opinions carry more weight, right? stan fischer, janet yellen, and dudley? drew: i would say with the rest of them, there are people who are very well regarded. the question is, how much do financial conditions matter? that is the only question because they talked about the model driven. it was no model i know of that the fed would used that would say we are going through our natural rate of

it's highly likely janet yellen. or the first time, the six dot is in position.will be a rate hike at the next meeting in december. >> let's pause on this chart. this looks like something out of a jodie foster movie like going interplanetary. >> like a video game from the early 1980's. the further out you get to the future. lazy to me.ittle sometime in the future, everything will be the way it used to be. can we still assume we can cluster around 3%? get past 2016 and the dots are essentially meaningless. they adjust them all the time. the important thing is their level is still above the level the market sees. they move around. forony, what does this mean retirees? your shop has said the great distortion goes forever. q you continue with that statement? -- do you continue with that statement? >> investors should be thinking especiallyand europe. the ecb will probably have its policy rate around 1% in 2020. for retirees, income will not be rising over time. a signaling function there that if the fed came down to 2% right now, everyone would say what's wrong with

for janet yellen, delaying this ultimate hike, whether it comes in october or december.you look at the euro-dollar play, and this is just part of yellen didwhat ms. put a little more pressure on the european economy. upr-over-year, exports were to the united states, in large part because he has seen the big moves and the big weakening in the euro. if you look at the export story, which is one way to look at the european economy, because there is not a whole lot of growth internally, china looks slow. if you shifted more to the borrowing costs story, whether or not you see borrowing costs in your states, you may be slightly more positive. either way, it looks like this could make mario draghi's task more challenging, but a little easier. he has to expand quantitive easing and add a few more zeros to whatever they are thinking of buying. jonathan: brian, i shifted back to the effect argument. the challenges that kuroda faces, does this increase the likelihood they move next month? brian: yes. i think it does a couple things. i would start with the 2% inflation target that

janet yellen giving us rocket fuel this morning.t night arguing the case for raising short-term rates this year. last week checked there are just three months left, we have a meeting in october, and meeting in december, more fed fund future indicate dis. i am looking at a problematic issue, december more risky, you have reverse lines and decreasing bank plans sheets, a lot of people close their books for the year. have you stocks that are struggles with the dollar, that is getting fresh 5 week highs on janet yellen's speech. that u.s. dollar, greenback looking firm today on the news that we might see a rate hike next month. joining me now, aaron gibbs, and derrel crocs. making sense of this, aaron, looking at market today, they are tentative. a lot of headlines to grapple with, what about next week and the end of the quarter? >> i think for q3, you know we're 2 or 3 weeks out, we have a same story, somewhat of a decline in earnings, energy is holding back. we see potential for healthcare. liz: durrell. where do you fall on this one.

. >> european stocks see red after the fed holds steady but janet yellen is criticized for creating a third mandate and blames the growth concerns in china for the decision to hold. >> the outlook abroad has been more uncertain as of late and concerns about china and other notable market economies lead to notable volatility in state side markets. >> the dow swings 300 points. but today's futures are pointing to higher open. >> a vote could throw the imme menation of the bailout in doubt. >> japanese stocks closing in the red despite optimism for the bank of japan. growth is returning but they will keep a watchful eye on china. >> the reaction by european stocks this morning is a negative one as you can see. we're seeing red particularly in italy down 1.34. now the reaction was sort of simulate yesterday in the u.s. we didn't see a rally, certainly. it was sort of mixed to down and we are expecting a bounce back today for u.s. equities. the dow expected to open up about 10 basis points. s&p similar and the nasdaq just above flat. for this negative reaction we've seen in europe and the

it's what fed chair janet yellen looks at. 3%.s right around 10. the average of the long term was about 10.7%. we are below that average and the last time the fed hiked in 2004 it was at 9.4%. so it really goes to show that we are coming up on that level of our unemployment picture getting better. >> you are better with the track pad. the more comprehensive number there. more is included. alix: today's jobs report isn't the only factor the fed chair needs to take into account when deciding if they should raise rates or not. they must also pay attention to we global market volatility continue to see. traders are putting the odds for a september rate hike at 28% with odds not above 50% until december. joining us now for more is the economic professor at john hopkins university and former adviser to fed chairs ben bernanke and janet yellin, a superstar on today. john, thank you so much for joining us. john: you're very welcome. ix: if you were advising janet yellen today what would you say after today's report? john: i think more important is what i w