here is janet yellen, more on the yellen banking curve.that she has to be on the is to real economy curve? mr. gallo: obviously, the fed does not have the deflation problem. you have a lot of imbalances. the job market is polarized. you have a few people with high paying jobs, a lot of people with low wages. china is deflating the global economy. inember, the fed decision december is adjusting the ecb. if the ecb does a lot, the fed will be constrained. tom: the headline that jon ferro pointed out of negative interest year yieldegative 2- in italy. this is the italian two-year down. to see the negative interest ites we saw the other day, has to spill into a u.s. analysis? mr. gallo: the biggest beneficiary of the deflationary story in china and the spillover to quantitative easing is europe. that is where the central bank will go forward. they have not done much before. we are still long on italy and spain. italy is using a little bit of its headroom to spend more. they have a 40 billion tax cut planned, which is ambitious given the level

and that janet yellen has to stay on it for months?he answer to all questions that begin "is there a ," is yes. have made it clear that this is not the time to raise rates or to commit to rising rates. on the other hand, if we started to see inflation accelerate, the right and responsible thing to do would be to raise rates quickly, and i don't think there is something in the financial totem that would be a bar raising rates. there are a lot of issues going forward with the financial terror how we built a misfeasance, which the world hasn't quite figured out yet. there are issues of liquidity, there are many issues. but at the same time, there are important things that have been done to make the financial system more stable. david: tom keene, thank you so much. larry and megan, please stay with us. return with -- of under armour, we would like to know what you think. coming up, we will talk to larry about liquidity in bond markets. coming up on bloomberg . ♪ stephanie: here is your bloomberg business flash. budweiser is making anot

federal reserve chief janet yellen announced the long-awaited hike? more coming up in about a minute. stay with us. sarah: welcome back. amid a diplomatic push to in the war in syria, thousands of refugees make the tough journey to germany through the balkans. the u.n. has warned of the risk of serious disease and health problems following monday's major earthquake in south asia. the death toll from the pakistan -afghanistan trimmer is now more than 360. rescue teams are still struggling to reach areas cut off by the quake. phone and power lines are down and landslides have blocked roads. authorities say to still too early to assess the true scale of the damage. the destructive force of the quake was felt across pakistan with reports of entire villages being destroyed in mountainous regions. pakistan mobilized its military overnight, sending medical teams and rations to affected areas. rescue efforts were affected -- hampered by landslides. damage to roads hampering access to afflicted areas, it is feared that thousands of people could still be very u

michael: that is what janet yellen said. there is not a whole lot in here that is completely different from what the fed had told us at the press conference. they got wall street all upset. looks -- some closer like right now we are not seeing much of a reaction in the major averages. the fed officials say it is prudent to wait for clarity on the outlook. many of whom see officials expected a fed rate lift off later this year. hearing a number of fed officials comment in recent days that they were still looking at a likely fed rate increase before the end of the year. far, markets have not seemed to buy it, have not been pricing that in. stocks actually take a bit of a leg up here. we have seen a mix to negative for much of the session. the nasdaq is still down. upsee the dow and s&p 500 here. thus look at treasuries. that is where you would expect to see the most reaction. note, look at the 10-year we have been seeing a leg up in yields, rising up ahead of the fed minutes. not much has changed from those levels, but a incre

what would happen if janet yellen stunned the world with a one-off rate increase.t everyone would expect. what is the going well in the risk on environment would reverse. rallyingr has been when risk was on. i would not count on the dollar rallying. i think the dollar would plunge. the euro being a funding currency may well increase. a lot of things that people are todicting are not going happen. thesecourtesy of devotions -- of these that the central banks have created. jonathan: the riksbank, gdp running at about 3%. they are expanding she week. what is happening? axel: they are scared of their currency being too strong here it they throw everything at it. centralthe key thing is banks are looking at headline inflation. in onxcuse to go all weakening the currency is going to fizzle out. u-turn they have to do a . they are doubling down. in the next couple of months, these banks are going to blink. this swiss are a prime candidate. axel merk is good to stay with us. we are going to have a special program on the fed decision. this is bloomberg surveillance. good mo

it is something that fed chair janet yellen is leaning on right now.to the extent that we have seen a divergence in the fed views, is that different? i want to quote while bringer, i do not viewrd, the improvement in the labor market is a sufficient statistic for judging inflation." " a variety of economist rick-- totally throwing out the phillips curve. is that unusual? >> people are making a big deal of this right now. i don't think janet yellen and stanley fischer are so adamant about the phillips curve being correct. i don't know it there is a difference between them right now. when you hear someone like janet yellen say i expect to raise interest rates, that's not necessarily a high conviction call, given all of the uncertainty around the economy. that uncertainty is rising. we can see that in their commentary in the minutes of the fmoc meeting that came out last week. i don't really think there is this beta cap between defense leadership and these other members, as some try to imply. >> the phillips curve is a theory that by economists. the data

stephanie: is janet yellen failing? donald: i do not know if she is failing, but she is a very political person. what she is doing -- and i am sure that it is with the blessing of the president, because he does not want a recession or worse in his administration. so she is keeping interest rates here,et him get out of let him go to my golf courses because i have the best one in washington. he is going to play golf and somebody is going to suffer. i am a developer. i developed property. i am doing the old post office. i pay almost no interest. i am not complaining from my own standpoint. it is great. but at some point you have to raise interest rates. stephanie: is it too late to raise them, though? donald: they're trying to put the recession into the next administration, but that is not fair. stephanie: it is day one, you're in the oval office. who do you want as your treasury secretary? donald: i do not want to say because that would be insulting to a lot of folks. carl icahn is a great business leader. there will be $

angie: i wonder how much lack of discipline that it starts looking like for janet yellen.er predecessor kept very tight reins on even the public announcements and comments and statements from the fed presidents and janet yellen has not been able to do that. peter: she herself has come out quite publicly and said what we need to do is not normalize rates. despite what the data says, she says she sees that as transitory and it is better to act anyway before inflation gets to its target. these rates are not normal, we need to start normalizing policy. members coming out and saying, that is nonsense. inflation below target is a big problem. we really need to wait. i think she would lose credibility for committee does not raise rates. rishaad: it does seem an empty statement. she talks about the economic data. the only real argument for raising rates, they have been abnormal for a long time. peter: they have also focused on teams that -- on things that are quite unusual. they made it very clear that china was one of their concerns as well. they are being too transparent in the

i think janet yellen. state bullet.: you hear people saying that she screwed up, but you think that vindicated her? matthew: a little bit. there is not a lot of inflationary pressure. there is no rush to go. this is not necessarily a bad report. need to't necessarily do more easing or anything like that. it underscores the notion they have a little time. alix: the other number you are pointing out was construction share of total payroll employment. what did that tell you? matthew: this shows the growth in construction share in total. this is a common cyclical indicator that people like to use as an indicator of where the business cycle is going. it is also slowing down. it is in line with that other chart. that thet another sign labor market was a lot hotter a year ago than it is now, and construction is one of the things that people talk about. it is a big case for the economy. we are not seeing that translate into higher job growth at the moment, even though construction funding is taking off. because we hired so many

stephanie: is janet yellen failing?d trump: i do not know she is failing, but i think she is a political person because everyone says she should raise the interest she has always been known as a dove on interest rates, but what she is doing, and i'm sure with the blessing of the president, because he does not want to have a recession or worse and his administration. he is keeping interest rates low and let them go to my golf courses because i the best one in washington. he's going to go play golf. someone is going to suffer. betty: on his golf courses. stephanie: he packs a mean punch clearly. i had asked him about banking and regulus. he says what everyone does. we need smart regulation. betty, there is no funding. where are you going to get smart regulation when you have these government bodies without any money, without the ability to hire people to pay them wages that would be comparable to the talent that banks can pay their bankers? but he said the bankers need to toughen up. when you look at these people who run

janet yellen has mentioned china before. so what will the statement be? will they go from describing the expanding,modestly or from moderate to modest? that would be a downgrade, some economists say. at a two-monthil low. this has a lot to do with the a new fuele've got supply report coming out wednesday morning. to -- oil drop down bouncing up and electronic trading this hour. wednesday should be an interesting day for the u.s. in terms of oil trade. durable goods fell in september while consumer confidence dropped to the lowest since january 2013, or the -- or by the biggest amount since then. so the fed is going into the meeting with not the greatest picture of the u.s. economy. that ita is telling us is weakening. the same economy said that most people are expecting a cut in pay statement from the fed, so nothing really earth shattering. somewhate bonds react to the action in washington where we had the white house and top lawmakers coming to a deal that would avert a debt default after november 3. that also had the bonds moving there. what fed funds

we saw janet yellen come out and try to speak to the market that i, janet yellen, think december is ini think that is an important message for the world to know, because i have always believed that there are three votes that matter. yellen, deadly and fisher on the fed. iswing what their view is critical. the data supporting anything she was saying will help to move the market in that direction. vonnie: fisher is in boston today. mike: tony rodriguez is cohead at fixed income at nuveen management. our thanks to phil mattingly. hope he can stay dry. i'm sure he would rather stay in the studio. but he will be there to break the news at 8:30 wall street time. what are payrolls going to be for the month of august? coming up in our next hour, we will talk with alan krueger of princeton, the former chairman of the council of economic advisers. how's the quality of jobs? are they paying a lot? do we get benefits? what is the expert think on bloomberg "surveillance" ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance" from boston and new york. we get ready for the jobs report. jon ferro fro

you have a second -- you have a policy of not too second-guess janet yellen.n is it appropriate to raise interest rates question mark if inflation was at 2% today, would it be an appropriate time to raise interest rates? mr. bernanke: the inflation rate is central to this. target for set a inflation, 2% a year. it is important the fed reach that target. the judgment they are making is this -- how strong will the economy be? will it grow at a pace sufficient to keep putting people back to work and to have the economy heating up enough that inflation will move back to target? they will be looking at the data on u.s. economy and looking at the global economy, which is the major drag on our recovery. china and the other emerging markets are slow right now. the imf just downgraded their forecast for the emerging markets. that has been a drag on the u.s. economy and the fed has to make an assessment about whether or not the forward momentum is sufficient that we will keep adding jobs and the economy will begin to heat up and get higher wages and meet the inflation t

janet yellen piled on. the statement filed on. feel pretty good that we will have a rate increase in december. the market wants clarity. this is providing clarity and that is in my mind the main reason why we have had this big rally off the lows. angie: it really is as if good news is good news again, that the u.s. economy is looking that it is going to be pretty resilient here despite the rate hike and the jobs forecast as well. you saw also the uptick in banks and financials overnight on wall street. didn't do well today and i do not think interest rates are going to move up -- banks did do well today and i do not think interest rates are going to move up. some were arguing that the fed if they did something in december, it would give people more confidence that the fed had higher confidence in what was going on in the economy. the fed is frequently wrong in its projections. i do not think that had a heck of a lot to do with it. i think people believe the u.s. growth is modest but dependable. we are not going to see much inflati

quick, does janet yellen have to act in relation to the ecb? if they are going down, that she have to stay where she is? michael: i do not necessarily think so. foughthing, the fed has more aggressive action on the ecb and boj because they are prices that need more aggressive action. just go back to the january minutes where after the ecb qe, people on the committee said that this is going to be good for the u.s. growth because it is taking out some of the downside risks are emanating from overseas. i'm not necessarily convinced that more ecb action means that the fed cannot move later this year or early next year. alix: looking forward to it. 2:00 p.m. will be exciting for all the nitty-gritty details, even if we do not get any kind of move. thank you very much michael and our own brendan greeley. scarlet: senior economics correspondent. alix: those are cool complicated charts that we did. scarlet: you have to tweak that out later. at programming note. we will have live coverage of today's fed decision with mark crumpton, tom keene, and kathle

but, in all seriousness, i have great respect for janet yellen.y opinions, i will not second guessstephaniu give her? to give her an "a.?" larry: i would give her an incomplete because her term is not yet over. i have great respect for janet yellen. former treasury secretary larry summers. we are atg note -- one family's enduring love with jewelry. the shop blossoming into an operation that encompasses the middle east and asian elite and royalty as well. them about their favorite memories. >> my favorite dimon is the 218 -- diamond is the 218 karat. he named it the star of macau. that dimon is 218 -- diamond is 218 carats. it is the largest diamond in the world. >> was it something that was presented to him and he got interested? >> we presented it and he got interested. well, we have the social media snapshot on the way. find out why youtube's latest update to its site looks more like a downgrade when trending business continues. ♪ rishaad: let's take a look at the stories making technology headlines. sony's restructuring may be working. it says

no one knows what janet yellen's next move is. neil: jonathan, thank you very much. big tax relief so we do not have to defend on the fed. >> i believe that every american should pay something on the federal level. >> i also liked like the idea of sending in a return and say something. >> rudy giuliani. it is always good to see you. he is adding 70 million households to those that don't pay taxes. it is better in the long run. what do you think? >> i believe everyone should pay something. a symbolic amount. i also believe that everyone on welfare should work. the government should supply the work. if you collected welfare, you have to work for the city 18 hours a week. i did that. continue the work ethic. we eventually took 6000 people off of welfare. people with jobs. private jobs. i rewarded my welfare workers with bonuses if they found jobs. even if they have to pay something, even a small amount of money, i think that it is a good idea. neil: that is not to say that they are not paying other taxes. they do not have any federal income tax payments. they are not as

but in all seriousness, i have great respect for janet yellen.ld you give her? : i would give her an incomplete because her term is not yet over. as i said, i have great respect for janet. that was larry summers. for more on economy, tune in tomorrow to hear what ben bernanke had to say about yellen , inflation, and his new memoir. up, we will get a behind-the-scenes view of the intense negotiations that led to the new deal on trade for pacific rim countries. and then to janet yellen and the fed interest rates this year. the imfhear why director of monetary policy says the fed should wait as well. and a dramatic twist in the beer wars. million -- sab miller turned down $100 million. ♪ betty: it is time for our business/. sab miller says no way to the biggest buried deal ever. they unanimously rejected a 100 million -- a $100 million ineover from budweiser death. bev.b inve inmev believes that they where the board should recommend. betty: shares of young brands are getting hammered today. it cut its full-year forecast. the company raised $110 mill

fed chair janet yellen says she plans on raising interest rates this year.n: rip the bandaid off already, that is what a lot of people say. donald trump spending time with charles payne last night. asking the gop presidential front-runner if he and ben carson close in the polls, provide the country with much-needed wake-up call. >> i think there is a big wake-up call going on right now. i think people are tired of it. they're tired of incompetence. you look at isis, how did that happen? so many different things. how we never make good trade deals. we lose with every country. lauren: trump firing back at mitt romney a day after the 2012 presidential nominee predicted that trump would not be the republican nominee this time around. trump tweeting that romney choked back in 2012. you can watch the entire interview with donald trump tonight, "making money with charles payne," 6:00 p.m. eastern right here on fox biz. nicole: there are reports today that warplanes believed to be russian conducted a third day of raids in syria on three towns held by the islamic sta

he would like to see them up a quarter%, so does janet yellen said by end of the year, you are more angry that message is different from the actual action? >> absolutely, but i think that -- again to stress, the way to get the economy is going to raise rates to point where the banks want to make loans, right now they hold 25 percent of their deposits in the form of reserves, that is -- this was 1% in december of 2007, now 25%, they don't want to loan because rates are too low, if they don't loan th the -- the one that president mester was talking about is having higher interest rate for the savers and also for the lenders. the same people can be willing to loan money. liz: would you say raise rates in october? >> i would. i would say go ahead, the economy not only can stand it, but the economy needs it for that reason. liz: then you are in agreement. >> you -- know we're in agreement. liz: michael cox we must go thank you so much we appreciate it he is fired up but he agrees with loretta mester, we can hand el a quarter of a point rate point hike but she is not a voting member, not until

is what you are telling janet yellen, america's central banker, to wait, and for how long?ould not tell janet yellen to do this or that because she is strong enough, smart enough, and very well advised. what we are saying is if it is data dependent for the announced , and this is very appropriate, it is well communicated, it should take into account data, including on employment, inflation, core inflation, inflation expectations, it should include all the spillovers, to the effect that they help effect the u.s. economy. michelle: under your leadership, the imf has changed its focus, doing a lot more work on issues like inequality, climate change, gender equality. do you want that agenda to remain after you have gone? ms. lagarde: i think it will continue to be critically important. we don't do that out of tantrum or simply because a woman is head of the imf. it has critical consequences good when women participate in the economy, they raise gdp level. when climate change is not addressed, it is a major threat and uncertainty going forward. when public finance is used to sub

i think janet yellen is vi vindicated by this number. if they raised rates in september, how would this number have looked? wouldn't it have looked like a policy mistake? >> it would have looked bad. it's ironic, i think the fed has tried to communicate things well. the markets don't always hear what the fed has to say. clearly if the fed is looking down the line, you know, monetary policy affects the economy with a lag of about 12 months, 18 months. there's a lot less slack than there was in the labor market. a year from now there will be less slack. the fed doesn't have to be at neutral, but it ought to be closer than it is now. so, there's no need to hit the brakes. they do have to consider taking the foot off the gas pedal. >> pile on, david. >> i think the notion of monetary stimulus and zero interest rates is wrong. the thing is when you raise rates, nobody will stop buying houses if we raise mortgage rates. that's not a constraint on them. but you will raise interest income. a lot of people would spend more interest income if they

janet yellen airing on the side of angels. plus, banks that have funded much of the oil boom have so far escaped the oil bust. find out how banks are still making money off of those deals. >> forget the polls, the all-important presidential fundraising numbers are in. jeb bush is now trailing ben carson and ted cruz. >> we begin with today's activities. we need to head over to the markets desk were julie hyman has the latest. expiration date, is that creating gyration in the market? julie: i guess it is. i would be third friday of the month already? that crept up on me. expirations futures and options contract, there is some volatility, but it is in a narrow range which is what we have been seeing lately, at least until yesterday, a late day surge. overall, a little lift in the markets. it looks like a combination of earnings, companies coming back from the declines that we saw yesterday. take a look at the bloomberg terminal and the various sectors on the move. we are seeing gains, a decent amount of red is on your screen com

striker: janet yellen.k's report, if you took a minute or two of what he said, you can figure out why you have people at the very top of this list. you have interest rates, you have -- manus: janet is on the front page. and number two is ping. there aren't many price. -- many surprises. one thing about the list, because they are so influential, you should have heard of them. there are a few surprises because it is a subjective listing. it is scientific up to a point. so you have the pope on the list, which you normally wouldn't find him on a list of influential people in our world, the world of business. francine: talking climate change. stryker: exactly. then you have the number two person in china by our reckoning is someone that not everyone has heard of but he pent a lot of time in a cave with ping and is in charge of the anti-corruption campaign. manus: we had a couple seconds before we started the conversation and you mentioned angela merkel and christine le guard are having a tough year in terms of i

he wouldn't second guess janet yellen. the up with attracting the most headlines is more executives should have gone to jail. the things that went wrong were the actions of individuals, not abstract firms. >> so interesting, because the former ceo of wells fargo has come on and said the real problem is that the shareholders ended up paying the bills for the people in the bad. he is closing the door after all the bad horses left. i think he made a compelling case to start remembering again the deflation is a real worry. because he worries about the average worker and the wages. and that those who have criticized the fed have been wrong in terms of the growth level. it was -- can i say he looked great. he looked like he had been -- the weight of the world had lifted from him. he was very clear-headed. said that it wasn't 6.5, and therefore tighten, that was part of the criteria. i salute this man. he was unwilling to slag anybody. had a crystal clear view of things. i felt great. i felt better after listening to him in terms

janet yellen says she is in favor of 2015. all of these people are voters. there is still a good chance it could happen this year but again, it is what the numbers tell them. david: charles speaking right now. >> he has also reported it at all. things are going well in the u.s.. all of this is happening over seas. >> they are not quite convinced of a december lift off. the latest numbers about 41% on your that number absent flows with the risks. it is a weird catch 22. the more the market rallies, the more people are going to think that there is a chance of a rate increase. and tells the story of why we are caught in this range. the august back from lows, emerging-market stocks were upwards of 11% to the s&p 500 was up 6%. oil was up 30%. it is clear that those lows we saw in august were an overshoot of the concern about the economy ground is,he middle is anyone's guess right now. the more we rally the more those rate increase chances will go up. david: talk about the economic undercurrents going on right now. talked about the likelihood of a recession in th

>> i think janet yellen is on the same page, talking about lingering labor. i think most of the core of the committee is still standing behind that view as well. was theyork president one who was talking about letting the economy run hot and i think he is going to reiterate these things. there is no rush to liftoff. one concern i have is that the the postd about liftoff trajectory. imported you cannot ignore the significance of the first move. you always want to find out the checkpoints. what are the checkpoints to december? the jobs report? we know that the foreign part of the economy trade has not been doing well. inventories have been too high. what fed officials are focused on right now are the domestic economy. we will watch the cpi report as they go forward. obviously, in november jobs report is going to be very keen. we do not have to go back over 200,000, but we need to keep seeing progress that would be a good thing for those who want to raise rates. if we saw the implement rate declined a little bit more, or , if thent job progress snow continued to

i have great respect for janet yellen. they had an incredible lineup of guests. they have been bernanke tomorrow. you saw a lot of banks pushing back there forecast -- inc. of america pushed it back and now there is a slower rate of increase. that seems to be the trend -- everyone meeting goldman sachs in some capacity. everything he has said so far has been very backward looking. "vanity fair" new establishment summit concludes today in san francisco. alix: emily chang is there along with redstone and she is standing by with evan williams, cofounder of twitter. thank you so much for joining us. it's great to have you here. i know you have had an eventful last two months, said thank you for taking the time. talk aboutg to twitter first. you said in your own medium post that you have had more conference calls in the last three months that you have had in your entire life. guest: there are a lot of conference calls involved in doing a ceo search. emily: how did you come to bringing jack on his permanent eeo? ev: everyone from the beginning new jack was capable and

that forces janet yellen to be central banker to the world.rink bill gross words to you about janet yellen being the central banker to the world. let's play a little bit of the conversation. but the fed is for now the world central banker. when there are hints they will raise rates or may not, tremendous amount of dollars liabilities and assets, trillions of dollars back and forth creating this liability situation, which ultimately not only affects financial markets but damages real economy. betty: we have the hong kong financial secretary on earlier you said i once more clarity from the fed. there is so much uncertainty. tom: the other message from bill gross and dominic coster and, we have exhausted monetary policy toolbox, toolkit we have. .o this, do this both bill gross and dominic koster and are looking for a fiscal courage to provide demand strength through the budget process. the book with that. that is about as good as san francisco 49ers fielding a good football team. it is down to that. how is bill gross doing in his fund? tom: i th

you obviously have a policy of not second guessing janet yellen, your successor.but tell me when it is appropriate, in your judgment, to raise interest rates and if inflation was at 2% today, would it be an appropriate time to raise interest rates? >> well, the inflation rate is really central to this because inflation has been quite low and, for good reasons, the fed set a target of inflation for 2% a year which was done when i was chairman and i think it is important the fed reach the target and i think they agree with that. so the judgment they're making is first how strong will the economy be? will the economy continue to be growing at a pace sufficient to keep putting people back to work and to have the economy heating up enough that inflation will move back to target? that's the first question. they will be looking at the data on the u.s. economy and looking at the global economy which i think right now is the major drag on our recovery. >> rose: especially china. china and the other emerging markets which about half the global economy are slow. the i.f.m. j

where does this lead the conundrum for janet yellen? constantly said we have to make monetary policy based on u.s. financial and real economy conditions. that is what they are going to do. influence that somewhat. ultimately, it is highly contingent on the real economy data. tom: i believe there is an october meeting coming up your. draghider -- is mario data dependent? >> i think he is, to some extent. the acting has to wait. he does a wonderful job in terms of drawing things out. tom: what does it mean for the german people? that might be the case in the future. francine: the currencies that we tied to saving the euro, are seeing the elections on sunday, 4.25. what do you see for those currencies under pressure? >> the fundamentals are being constructive as of late. they are not typically weakening. tom: what does it mean for swiss franc? draghi affects everything in europe. >> they seem to leap frog the ecb with negative rates. >> it is almost a negative rate war. war with alane ruskin. francine, thank you. what a week here. ballmer

the indications of when janet yellen is speaking not.participants saying, it is crazy that we think nothing would happen in november. are we getting ourselves a twist? carl: i think the fed has to be clear that there will be a press conference. just saying we can raise rates and call a press conference afterwards i think creates the potential for the markets to go haywire in the period between the rate hike and the start of the press conference. october, out of the picture. policymakers worked great pains to keep october's a live meeting. that has fallen by the wayside and i suspect same will be true for december. the fact that she is scheduled the speeches made be to provide advance warning that they are not moving in november. mike: i was talking with john williams, the san francisco bank president. he would take issue with the characterization of the jobs reports as weak. jobre going to have a lower rate. the important -- what is important is that the unemployment rate. carl: we should see the pace of job creation slow. supply and dem

will hold any clue of what janet yellen is thinking about? s deal may give new light to bond traders. twitter will be releasing earnings. could be something to watch given the company's struggles to add new users. and of course, the switch to jack dorsey now as the new ceo. ♪ betty: good afternoon. welcome back. it's time for the bloomberg business flash. sec is conducting a probe into the way the company accounts for revenue recognition. ibm light in august that regulators were looking into the transactions in the u.s. shares declined on the news. alibaba's revenues were better than forecast in the second quarter. china's 32% despite slowing economy. alibaba says it has stepped up advertising to ward off the slowdown. air travel in iran was sore once the nuclear deal with six world powers goes into effect and sanctions are lifted. the accord to the international air transport association is forecasting air travel will nearly triple to 260%. it says airline serving iran could expect more than 30 million at your passengers a year, that compare

janet yellen is at the top of that list. argue with that?ho has her finger on a bigger button that janet yellen? avon: thank you very much. bloomberg markets's most influential summit meeting tomorrow for a day of newsmaking conversation. that's live tomorrow on bloomberg television. still ahead on the bloomberg market day, meet the next generation of golfers -- can they help and industry in the rough? ♪ to thewelcome back bloomberg market day. the new pga tour season begins in less than two weeks in california. and a 23-year-old earned his place in the big tour, making a 25 foot birdie putt. the web.com tour has become the primary pass to securing membership to the pga tour. joining me now are three rising golf stars. let me ask what the tournament was like and what it means for you going forward. guest: it is my first win in the united states. we have been traveling the last entereeks and i had to the last one to get a victory. i can't wait to start on the pga tour. david: obviously winning one of these is a big deal. there's something cal

what kind of ripple effect it would have the way janet yellen had to.hink they would like to go in december and clear the way for everyone. i think with the ecb easing or possibly easing in december, and if the fed doesn't move, i don't think the boe wants to be the first out of the gate. that seems kind of dicey. in december, you could have an ecb that's easing and a fat hiking at exactly right at the same time. joe: it could be a really fun month. scarlet: we are going to be busy for sure. we have much more coming up. china has ended its one child policy. you can now have two kids there. we will discuss the implications of that, next. ♪ scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" let's get to mark crumpton. want the jobnot initially, but now paul ryan says he is realistic about partisanship in washington. in his first address as speaker, betold his colleagues, let's frank, houses broken. but he added we are not settling scores, we are wiping the slate clean. in his farewell address, john boehner called the house the great embodiment of the american dr

janet yellen is a consensus person.sten to her fellow fomc numbers and try to build a consensus. i do not think she will be one of them. i think she will be part of a majority and the substantial majority. everybody assumes janet yellen knows what she would do in december. december is a long way from no with a lot more data and we will note more. then you deal with the facts in front of you and make a decision. he was cap furnace, -- in fairness, he said based on the data right now, but we have a long way. like you said. things could develop, so he did not say no rate hike. stephanie: what does bloomberg tell us? is price, not yield and you can see a selloff in treasuries after this number came out. that data fromng macro came out and said it is too bad cpi does not matter otherwise they would be going. it is interesting to see this new piece of inflationary data but it is not a piece of inflationary data that the fed cares about so much. and you focused on core don't see as much movement as you do in cpr. stephanie: le

er: unsurprisingly, it is janet yellen. interest rates are being discussed over and over again.ve been four weeks and they will be four weeks more to come. that explains why she is up there. jonathan: why she is only front page of today's issue. janet yellen tops the issue. i wonder what the themes are the on rates. stryker: it is interesting. the united states is most represented on the list of 50 people. it is no supplies. it is still the largest economy for all of its problems every once in a while. the second important thing to note is, even though we have had a slowdown in china, asia continues to be more and more represented on the list. there are more asians on the list than there ever have been before. the third thing is europe. unsurprisingly, there are not that many europeans on the list. in total.eight given what has been going on with the european economy, that not a big surprise. some of those who are on the list are on the list because of europe's problems. de, have merkel and la guar because of greece. jonathan: people will be wondering how this is compiled. is it

from the standpoint of janet yellen, it is a problem.dpoint of someone that pays money for stuff as a regular person, that is great. as good ass also not janet yellen would have liked to have seen. a gain of 1/10 of 1%. we were looking for 2/10 of 1%. so, half of what we are looking for. futures gained -- i will show you the producer price index x food and energy. this is not that inflation number the fed looks at closely, but this is the price producers are paying to make the stuff that you buy, and it is coming down. there is none of the inflation janet yellen needs to see to raise rates. maybe that is a positive for the market. david: old habits die hard. when i see numbers like that, i think about advertising and the broadcasting business. run aonves, you largely business that -- you run a business largest uploaded by advertising revenue. -- largely supported by advertising revenue. what you think when you see numbers like that? 70%moonves: our business is advertising. -- 60% advertising. it used to be 70%. we brought that down. you

michael: it shows that janet yellen is holding the committee together. jeff lacher has made his opinion clear. there are others who would probably agree with him, but there is no point going strong with the dissent because it would not, which anything at this point. we know there are others who would like to join him, but most people are still willing to wait. the interesting thing is they talked about next year instead of december, and they are not pushing back either. tom: can i see the -- say that the chart looks like the promo x-files movie? it just looks like something that mulder or scully would look at. i'm just saying. ira: we have been talking about 18 months. you've heard others say is not a commitment. not: i'm not -- ira: i'm committed to hiking. but they have said it. what is the use of things like thatt plot and the fact other members said they are going to that? tom: i know you're going to julie. julie: i want to start with the bond market. we have seen a loss in the bond market as well. it is important to point out the move in currencies

speaking for myself, what we see in the meetings is enormous respect for janet yellen as the chair. all are, she is weighing the various countervailing influences on the economy. domestically it's doing great. here in san francisco this economy is booming like never before. many parts of the country are like that. there are global factors that are slowdown in growth abroad. commodity price declines that have an impact on the u.s. economy and there are obviously risks to further slowdowns abroad. we have to weigh these factors. there are strong arguments on both sides and we must come to the best decision that we can knowing that in six weeks we will have to do all of that analysis again and have another opportunity to come to a decision. do you have aael: credibility problem if they don't raise rates? we're making decisions based on incoming information and overtly the data is all the map. we have indicators that things are strong, indicators from abroad that things are slow. we have to read that data, analyze it, come to the best decision. it is one of those things that i described

it is not all about janet yellen, it is also about mark carney and mario draghi. let's bring in the founding member of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england. he is still with us. great to have you. first question. you are sitting on the mpc today. does it really were you what you see happening abroad? does it factor into your decision? >> no, i don't think so. i think there are wobbles, certainly, in the markets are certainly nervous, but it seems to me that the fundamental view you will have to take is -- is this country in need of an interest rate increase or not? the debate, i suspect, will be pretty hot. i think we might well see one or two more members voting or a rise this month. i don't think we will see a change but i think the vote could well be a change. good morning.us, i know you studied at iowa state university, and i wonder if you could agree that not only janet yellen but mark carney's central banker to the world. they seem to be the only two economies working. i think certainly the u.s. and the u.k. are in better shape than many worl

where it does janet yellen in her heart of hearts, hard to think janet yellen is more hawkish than larryre democrats, they don't want the fed to do anything -- >> janet yellen is a democrat too? dagen: assume janet yellen is impossible because she is running the fed. and democrats -- >> that is the recent -- >> the lobby -- >> i would like to believe -- >> they have portfolio they care about in interest rates. and hedge funds. >> larry summers investment advice. and we need to have that to fiscal. after 600 rate cuts, no economic growth as far as the eye can see the labor market rolling over, and -- >> is that the right move? the rate hike? >> i am not that smart but this is what i do now. rates stayed low and an extended period. on the short and long end of the curve. not exactly the same. and at merrill lynch, rates stay lower. >> really important point. from 1951. >> the baby boomers, they thought, and at facing anything like that. and through retirement based on the current environment we are in and equities are the answers. >> when john said it is not that bad, depending on what the

the more i watched janet yellen at the fed, the fomc, trying to decide whether or not to raise rates,ore i hear data dependent and listed excuses, the more i am reminded of his problem of conjecture. that is not to say that i think the fed should be raising rights -- i am slightly inclined to the larry summers you. but what i think is dangerous is permanent decision. there is an atmosphere of uncertainty around what the fed is going to do. we no longer have a clear feeling. all we are told -- it's injure says that is the worst kind of policy, because it is the absence of a strategy. manus: credibility begins -- many people are saying that the fed missed their opportunity. where do you believe they will raise rates this year? it is about credit -- the credibility of forward guidance. what do you think he would make of the credibility gap that now exists between markets and forward guidance from the central banks? niall: i think central bankers can learn from the world of geopolitics. credibility is a huge part of kissinger's theoretical framework. -- can use u.s. credibility the fed is

it is really down to janet yellen. she won't move until she feels she has enough consensus. to me the really interesting thing now is the profile of the raise after the first raise. at the end of 2016, i wouldn't be shocked to see 50 to 75 basis points range. this is not going up fast. people have looked to past tightening cycles i don't think this one will be anything like that given the deflationary impacts around the world. >> investors coming into this meeting weren't pricing anything. 50% price now for december. >> that's right, julia. it has adjusted. you know, this is a very foreign environment to many bond managers who have been acted in a period of high yields. i would not be shocked to see on a two-year yield, the yield curve going to almost flatter two. i think the yields are going sharply up is really -- it is going out of the consensus. and i think that's right. and i expect to see it -- >> but adjusting expectations would suggest that we're ready for action but we may not get them in december. if they don't go in december, don't they lack correct if they miss s

the speech that janet yellen gave at the university -- you could use that. university of massachusetts when she was at amherst, and the headline coming out was, "don't worry, just because we did not risen september doesn't mean we're not going to do it in december." lisa co they were still talkish .-lisa: they were still hawkish this jobs report today change that conversation. it was devastating on every level. it was that anyway you slice and dice it. there were as no wage growth. pimm: i think 2.2% year-over-year. lisa: maybe can make the argument we are reaching for employment, so that is why you're not adding as many jobs, not as many firings. there are lots of arguments to explain it. but how do you explain no wage growth? that arguably is one of the most telling signs that there is very little momentum right now, and people are talking about qw4. pimm: qe4? than fedher credibility, have they been unsuccessful in their attempt to generate growth? pimm: can you please give your twitter handle? it is really catchy. pimm: thank you very much. lisa abramowi

janet yellen is appearing to disagree with her opposition on the dove 4 scale.t other fed presidents seem to favor a 2015 rate rice. any position would be dated. >>> let's discuss this further. joining us from europe is michael purvis, chief global strategist. michael, very good morning to you. thanks for joining us. in the last couple of days we've had very dovish tone out of the fomc. does that make it less likely that the fed itself will tighten because of what's happening in central banks around the world? >> absolutely. i think the ecb move, which was a strong one that we just saw, one of the most noticeable things of course was the impact on currencies. you know, janet yellen or her colleagues won't necessarily, you know, directly and explicitly address that. the fed obviously doesn't have a dollar mandate but the impact of a very strong dollar not just on u.s. exports and so forth but also as sort of a tail risk for global markets and what i mean by that is, you know, emerging market fx getting beaten up too much by an ever growing dollar. yellen has to b

so, yeah, i think it's a huge impediment that's removed for janet yellen and company.hether or not they seize on the opportunity i'm skeptical. >> whether they do it this meeting or next meeting or not until 2015 we will find out at least in terms of october here in just about an hour's time. let's turn to the reason you're in colorado and why so much of the political world and, indeed, national attention is focused on colorado. that's the debate tonight. >> right. >> you say that the current front-runner in iowa and really nipping there to be the front-runner in many polls, ben carson could be exposed tonight. your words, because the economy and economics is not his strength. explain. >> well, i think the thing that people have to understand about donald trump and ben carson is kind of the inside baseball is that they haven't spent a lot of money. they've been really kind of benefitting from earned media, so to speak. they have no ground operations in the states. secondly, we've talked a lot about domestic policy and thankfully cnbc is hosting a debate tonight that's

>> janet yellen a speech where u3 was a good measure of slack in the labor market.eople leaving the labor force makes this recovery different, but most members have said this is still the best measure we have. alix: what ones are keeping you up at night? that when thes fed does hike, will that be volatility reducing or increasing volatility? this is important for rates and vix andfx. a lot of questions i get, we have done this, is that a sign, people say that everything is stable, or is that a sign that they did hike rates so we will now have more volatility. this is important for all asset classes. joe: awesome stuff. alix: thanks to the chief international economist at deutsche bank securities. joe: why does one analyst known as "mad dog" -- ♪ >> before the break, we watched why the analyst called man. -- mad dog would be against the dollar, driving down the nikkei average. >> the analyst predicted in 2011 and he believes that japan's quantitative word only psychologically failed to boost inflation. >> it also talks about the fact that inflation is going to rain,