a lot of it depends on what janet yellen says. i'm going to tell you that she does start out with the word hello. not recall but it could be an adele song for all i know. but i'm just telling you i have it here. and some at the fed are going to be, like, you're not really going to read these embargo comments, are you? well, that depends if you give us janet yellen. in the meantime we are looking at a couple of things at why it's so important and why we are building a little bit of drama around it because it could represent the first time in almost a decade that interest rates will stat are the moving up and you know the drill here. one and rarely done. you follow a pattern either when you start raising them or start lowering them, we certainly know that when we started lowering them and now the bet is when they will start hiking them but there is that opposition camp that says, you know, they're lowering them in europe, we've got a tense global environment, we've got terror, paris a couple of weeks ago, is this the environment to

the emerging markets index had been declining in the lead up to janet yellen's comments. look at the bloomberg terminal, you can see the losses in the lead up to yellen's speech. we are off our lows, but still, a drop of .4% for one day. the setup was fairly negative on expectations that janet yellen the fediterate that would proceed ahead with liftoff as long as the data supports that, and it does not seem to have changed the tone. alix: we are seeing some thing similar ripple through the currency market as well. you go to the bloomberg terminal and you can see the u.s. dollar against the ruble, the dollar gaining in strength, which means the ruvell is declining against the dollar. 11:00, thery, 11:30, bottom put in for that part of the session, and then a steady decline for the ruble, and of course, the lows of the session here. lowest level since mid-september. definitely, it seems like emerging markets in part is where we are feeling some of the shock or the ripple effects. the question is, how much is priced in? will we see some kind of software will it be relatively

julie: a janet yellen waiting game. she is scheduled to speak at the economic club of washington so it looks like markets are waiting for her comments to perhaps get more direction. we have had some commentary from other officials over the past 24 hours. ar. heard from leo brain we heard from dennis lockhart, he says he does favor raising interest rates is month. in addition to hearing from those officials, we also heard from adp. it's payrolls report saying the u.s. economy added 217 -- 217,000 private jobs. this was precursor of the jobs report on friday. thoughts for investors to consider. p -- wirp. at w.a.r. the likelihood the futures market is pricing in another increase. we have seen an increase in the probability. it stands at about 74%. that is something to consider as we going to these remarks from janet yellen. that's take a look at the treasury market ahead of her comments. we are seeing an increase in yields. 2.18% help in part by jobs figures. a bump in the u.s. dollar versus the euro. the ecb, we will hea

we are awaiting janet yellen's speech, and awaiting the ecb tomorrow. the macro highlight of the day was the euro area's latest inflation report. consumer prices just rose 0.1%. economists expected 0.2%. that is reinforcing that the ecb has to do something tomorrow to accelerate inflation. don't forget, inflation has been way below the ecb's goal of 2% over a two-year horizon for the better part of three years. betty: ok. so staying on what is going on right now, mark, the worst-performing european stock today was steelmaker arcelormittal. what prompted this 12-year low? mark: check that out, betty, down 9%. a big iron ore producer today said steel prices are heading lower next year. citigroup says arcelormittal's earnings have further to fall next year. they cut their recommendation to neutral from buy, and said they jumped the gun in upgrading shares in october. they are facing a double storm. china is flooding the market with cheap exports, particularly in europe and the u.s., arcelormittal's big markets. the other side, iron ore prices have sunk to

we know what happened in the spring and janet yellen spoke.n she speaks later when she sits there and delivers that speech, do you anticipate a ?lavor of what is to come ramin: the reaction will be very interesting. it will be a little rehearsed with what happens with the fed hike. and it just to see the euro-dollar reaction in the equity market reaction. jonathan: ramin nakisa, we have done bonds and stocks. now we are going to do commodities. iran's having sections lifted. programcountries include a military dimension? we will debate, that is next. ♪ jonathan: good morning. i am jonathan ferro joining you from the city of london. the ftse 100 in the green. iran and focus, voice to take a big step focus. poised to take a big step today. iran nuclear program included a military dimension. bloombergs middle east editor elliott goeken joins us now. iaea, whatwith the the anticipate that's what do you anticipate? -- what do you anticipate? elliott co. that is absolutely right. allowing them to enter facilities pretty much unfettered in iran. that

fed chair janet yellen takes center stage at the next two days though she is not expected to give away much about the fed's plans at the meeting this month. yellen speaks to the economic club of washington this afternoon before she testified to the joint economic committee on capitol hill on thursday. ted peters joins us. chairman and chief executive of blue stones financial institutions fund. also he served on the board of the federal reserve bank of philadelphia from '09 through to 2014. good to see you. so if you were still serving on the board, what would you want to see happen now? what do you think the fed should be doing? >> well, i think the fed has been late in raising rates. we've had increased fatigue over the last six months where everybody is ready to go up and keep postponing it. they're very data driven as you know. i'm almost 100% positive. rates will go up in december and i would look for probably at least three rate increases if not four rate increases or whatever. the fed wants to get the funds rate up to 350 which would be a normal area for it to be in. >> is that s

is the wage growth out there to give janet yellen actual progress? tom: i think it is interesting that -- it was the very last question asked, and she sort of conceded the point that wage growth could be on the rise. that is certainly part of the narrative she was trying to weave. keep in mind, if you look at inflation, to me this is one of the key is to points within the summary of economic production, and feel at the inflation forecast, they took down their inflation estimates. yet even with that, even with the admission that inflation, kids -- because it could be a touch lighter than they think, this is not close to the estimate. so they will continue to have hikes next year. i think that is all part of the bigger point that if you look at the long run estimate of the unemployment rate, they do not touch it. and there estimates for 2016, 4 .7%. if you're reading between the lines, that means they are probably buying into the notion that you could see wage fracturing. buying income obviously bill gross is not buying them. wrom morgan stanley, d yen

could janet yellen have backed off again? not really. you are saying the markets do like this. they like the clarity. stephanie: yes, it is a good thing. it is like you are set up to fail. you are obligated to give every last detail and information, you leave yourself no wiggle room. john: does any republican or democrat have a reason to attack janet yellen? stephanie: janet yellen nailed it. they have enough time to attack one another right now. john: bipartisan happiness. stephanie: no such thing as that. john: we will roll that videotape from yesterday's debate. ♪ consistent --ty broad consensus that be debate did not change some rank order. we will start with a man who hearly ate some nails before had breakfast. bush.ould be john ellis jeb bush: he is a chaos candidate. he would be a chaos president. dealing with the islamic terrorism. this is a tough business. donald trump: you are a tough guy, jeb. mark: you suggested this was his last gasp. trump seems to agree with you. what did you think that no one else on the stage even tried

fed chief janet yellen indicates further rate hikes are ahead. german chancellor angela merkel says germany has a special responsibility to protect the achievements of european integration. she has been talking about migration and head of hers day's european summit. as you watch our next report, imagine a young man in the prime of his life languishing in a prison cell, his health failing and his dismal routine and she agonizing beatings. his crime involves a bold act of courage -- during to speak out for religious tolerance and freedom of speech in the oil-rich and archconservative kingdom of saudi arabia. incarcerated for that courage, he has been awarded a prize for freedom of thought. >> as she accepted the prize on behalf of her husband, she told the european parliament that freedom, like air, is essential to human existence. >> he is a man of these. he did not want to be part of the heard that blindly follows religious scholars that do not live in the present. reporter: in 2012, a saudi court sentenced him to 20 years in prison and a thousan

that was pretty much in janet yellen's comments today.ything, this gives us a good pop to get in now. abigail: the s&p 500 slice to write through its first 200 a moving average for the second time in three weeks. what do you make of that? >> what i look at is a direction of the paper today, direction of the put call ratio. it is barely up to 20. it backed off a little bit. i would expect the volatility to be much higher given the news we have seen today. again, i think this is a beleaguered place for those investors waiting for this pullback to get there -- the technicals are there and very important. the last couple times we have gone through, we have snapped right back. abigail: thank you. moving to your trade, ultra asthmatics -- cosmetics. >> revenue year over year expected still in double-digit growth. everybody is piling on this easy trade. not that i think the stock is not going to go up but i want to sell a put spread because if the stock happens to drop i'm ok with that because i would want to buy the sure is below 158 anyway. th

break,: before we go to we will hear from janet yellen at today's news conference.ssed the news that they blocked clients from pulling their money from the fund. >> after you focus credit funds with rather unusual open-ended funds, it had very concentrated positions, especially in risking and liquid facingand it had been very significant redemption pressures. ♪ scarlet: welcome back to "what did you miss?" tomorrow we will look ahead to what investors need to monitor coming into this historic rate increase. 6:45 a.m., the fixing of the overnight life world rate. that theysting is began rising last night in anticipation of the tightening. joe: then of course at 8:00, we have the reverse repo rates updates. this is such a key tool for the fed to start soaping up the a liquidity. we will start to see how they will make the mechanism work. scarlet: 9:30, rates on commercial paper. fedkey here is that the doesn't just raise rates at banks but across the financial system. joe: then we will have the results of that reverse operation at 1:15 p.m. eastern time. we will get a

yellen,that for janet can she look at one america or is in a quality so large now that janet yellen iswo americas in our analysis? -- in her analysis? >> inequality is a growing problem in america. i don't think much of what janet is thinking about at the moment as she looks at the rate increase -- i want to congratulate you guys. you have managed to arouse an awful lot of suspense about a move that i think is pretty much a foregone conclusion and better telegraphed that almost any move the fed has made. tom: i'm going to start crying . this is fantastic at you have done this. we try to make it as suspenseful as we can. what will you listen for in the press conference of today does not matter? not say today does not matter. i think they will raise today and i think it's the right thing to do. it would not have mattered a lot if they had done it at the last meeting or they do it at the next meeting. to gok it's important ahead and raise and they have telegraphed pretty clearly that they are going to do it today. i think their motivation is mainly to get back into a more normal range. th

stephanie: janet yellen nailed it today.ailed it because the last thing we need is more uncertainty and volatility. the street liked it. it was steady as she goes. why do we like that? the election is coming. 1.375% is where it should be by the end of 2016. the number is still very low. john: yeah. stephanie: what does this mean for the general economy? the number is still very low. it is about confidence. we finally have a sign that things are getting better. we saw the jobs number improve. as the slack gets absorbed, we can get some wage growth. think about middle america, all of those people getting behind cannelton's -- behind candidates like donald trump because they are frustrated. they might have a chance where they can start a business, get a job. john: the reason this happens is because the fed decides the economy is growing strongly and maybe there is some risk of inflation. stephanie: some inflation is good. john: for most people, the interest rate is a fact of life, but also a psychological thing. people have got

we want to bring you now live to janet yellen's temperature. >> we are going to take a quick break herellen is testifying. we will take the "q" and "a" when it agains. back in a moment. ho, ho, hello... can you help santa with a new data plan? sure thing... uh right now you can get 15 gigs of data for the price of 10. that's five extra gigs for the same price. looks like someone just made it to the top of the nice list. in that case, i want a new bicycle, a bike helmet, a basketball, a stuffed animal that talks when you squeeze it. and... yes, yes. i got your letter. we're good. oh. okay i was just making sure. get 15 gigs for the price of 10 now at at&t. >>> several developments this morning. janet yellen is in front of the joint economic committee giving her testimony, which we have gotten comments on. "q" and "a" begins shortly. >>> getting word that the white house and the president will have a comment on the san bernardino shooting from yesterday. when that happens, we will take it as well. >> as we wait for janet yellen and her questions, let's bring back richard fitcher, the form

presents janet yellen to the economic club of washington. michael mckee joins us now. peech comes at before herime, a day testimony before the economic committee of congress and two days ahead of the crucial december jobs report. what is she going to say? michael: we tend to forget how little she talks about policy. the last time we heard from her on the economy was september 24. clearly she had something to say. fran, to paraphrase your former prime minister, margaret thatcher, her market -- her view was "markets do not go all wobbly on us." no matter what happens on the jobs report, she wants markets to stay where they are. they are priced to move and she is going to try to reinforce that. keep the markets from going all wobbly. she has been a fed chair who has talked about policy before. ishael: the j ec meeting really going to reinforce what she says today. today she has a friendly audience, and she can make her case, which is likely to be that the cumulative effect of the economy, progress that has been made, justifies a rate increase, almost at full employment. in

tom: is that the danish janet yellen? erik: your greek names. a first here on bloomberg surveillance. yellen. [laughter] we have so much to talk about. we go to the draghi press conference. most exciting day for monetary economics. as well for environmental economics. all of that happening in paris. i will be tomorrow with francine lacqua in paris. a very important meeting sponsored by bloomberg philanthropies. willayors of the world provide a solution. stay with us. ♪ caroline: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am here with tom keene. tom keene is getting up to paris. croissants. the ftse 100 coming out of the red. where in the green. -- we are in the green. let's focus on business. vonnie:u so much -- investors are expecting reaction from central banks. speaks 45mario draghi minutes later. investors have priced in a wanted to percent probability that the ecb will -- a 100% probability that the ecb will cut interest rates. federal reserve chair janet yellen is a student -- is suggesting a change the way fans look at rate hikes. on

mark: federal reserve chair janet yellen's lame and groundwork for december interest rate hike. day before the economic club of washington, chair yellen said she is increasingly confident the u.s. economy is growing enough to achieve a better labor market and higher inflation. she warned that keeping policy too easy or too long creates risks. >> to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting most of our goals. such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into a recession. moreover, holding the federal funds rate at it trying level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability. federal open market committee meets later this month and is widely to -- widely expected to raise interest rates . french police have raided a mosque about 20 miles east of paris. seized in nine millimeters revolver, computer disk, and jihadist propaganda. it is the third mos

bill gross: janet yellen today in the press conference, to me, suggested a rather hawkish stance. is definitely thoroughly not modern millie, or thoroughly modern janet. she reflects a fed model that emphasizes transitory as opposed to structural factors, and continues to suggest short legs in monetary policy. i think the fed basically is living in an old age as opposed to a new age, reflective of high leverage, globalization, factors in terms of demographics that are pushing down inflation. she refuses to acknowledge it. >> i want michael mckee to jump in with his sophistication, but i have got to ask you that key question. which way will the spread differential play out? is full faith and credit going to make higher yields or do we see carnage in the high-yield market? >> i think we have reached a point of stasis in the high-yield market. for the most part it is a function of retail, and retail confidence. certainly it has been shaken of the past few days and months as high-yield prices have gone down by 5%, 10%, 15%. that is not a confidence-inducing type of and fullest but i th

joe: janet yellen discuss of the carnage in her press conference. ceo, ousted from cheniere energy.e will get his take on the energy market. talk about the u.s. stark market giving back yesterday's rally. jerkeemed like a knee reaction from what we saw. the commodities selloff and the prospects for global growth taking center stage. the strong dollar putting pressure on commodities. i don't think anyone really knows why markets fell today, and i think this speaks to some good advice come no reason to aggressively interpret the fed great decision right away. we will be debating this narrative for a while. like gold, oil, copper across the board down. index takingrgy 16%, the etf that tracks the stocks. the commodity route is adding pressure to the market. -- commodity route is adding pressure to the market. part of the reason why commodities got it was because of the dollar trade. look at the strength in the dollar, a 11 year high versus the canadian dollar, almost 2% off the south african currency. joe, you can speak to that in terms of a fed great hike. the market said, ok, we can

is janet yellen wrong? alan: i hope she is right.predicted we would see labor force participation decline. since then, we have seen labor force which is the patient declining. the reason has been a long-term unemployed have been withdrawn from the labor force. there's not much of a tendency to rejoin after they have exited . they may retire or move on. carl: what you say to the folks that believe if we see higher wages they could be coaxed back into the labor market? alan: i think it would be a small number compared to the demographic trend. it may be a small recovery, we have not seen any yet. any recovery we see going forward will be offset by the fact the labor force is getting older and we will see more retirement. carl: structural outweighs the cyclical? david: janet yellen talks about unemployment, the wage growth being important. what do you focus on? alan: part-time workers is important. more and more people are getting jobs because they want it or it is the only job they can find. that is another factor. there are a lot of t

janet yellen is overly concerned about inflation. and that is not an issue.aurence: it is about looking through the windscreen or looking in the rearview mirror. i know when you look at the inflation prints it looks like it is not an issue. we all know that. we see headlines, we all know because of base fx that that headline rate will move up substantially. we know the core inflation is rising. and core inflation, measured by , in the u.s. is at target. if you might want to be the opposite of bill gross, what are they doing with interest rates at just a quarter to a half a percent? they should be moving quicker. he is on one side of the argument and there is a spectrum. you would expect that. the fed's job is to go down the middle, and it seems to me that most markets with the exception of the treasury market, she is going more at the right speed. that was the reaction we saw overnight. >> we got some more clarity but as we look ahead to 2016, there is still uncertainty as to when they are going to hike again and the asian markets, and implications there. >>

. >> you are listening to janet yellen. earlier today, mario draghi .ecided to cut the deposit rate joining me now is michael mckee. michael: she made the same point she made yesterday, the economy you wouldo the point want to raise rates. unemployment is close to its neutral rate. she made the same point to congress that she made to investors yesterday. the sed cannot -- the fed cannot afford to wait longer. here's what she had to say. betty: we do not have that available. michael: if they wait too long, they will have to raise rates faster and perhaps farther. away that a lot of people looked at yesterday, why they believe the fed is going to go into summer now is because she is signaling they do not want to wait longer. she did hint that the fed might be behind the curve. michael: it is much easier. they know what to do to respond to inflation breaking out. they would like to get started because they want to have ability to respond without additionalesort to qe, which they feel has lost its ability to stimulate. the othe

. >> cheryl: investors will pay close attention to janet yellen today. her assessment comes about two weeks before the feds final policy meeting of that year, of this year, excuse me. first hike in interest rates in nearly 10 years. one fed official says he's a bit nervous of raising rates later this month but evans says it's more critical to focus to raise rates at a pace. november estimate is 190,000 jobs. that will be up from the 182,000 added in october. also, we will get the big monthly reports this friday. economists are looking payroll by 200,000 and unemployment to hold steady. >> nicole: bigger the number, the better it is for jobs. sources say the company's board will weigh a sale of core internet business this week. board to proceed yahoo investment in alibaba. 7% after hours on that news. you can see it on the spike. ceo faces more pressure over the company's performance. efforts to turn around yahoo now in their fourth year have been challenged by low morale with at least a dozen top executives leaving the company. >> cheryl: zuckerberg anno

steve liesman reports. >> reporter: fed chair janet yellen making generally positive economic comments in a major speech in washington, pointing the way to a potential rate hike at the fed's meeting later this month. yellen signaled a rate hike more through expressing confidence in the economy than saying outright that rates would go up. she cautioned that the data between now and the next fed meeting, which is december 15th, could change the outcome. the data includes, most importantly, friday's big jobs report. but yellen was clear, the fed's goal has been met on jobs, and she's confident it will be met on inflation. >> i anticipate continued economic growth at a moderate pace that will be sufficient to generate additional increases in employment, further reductions in the remaining margins of labor market slack and a rise in inflation to our 2% objective. >> reporter: the fed chair acknowledged the dangers of hiking rates too early, but she was much more specific and pointed about the dangers of hiking too late. she warned that the fed risked bankrupt rate hikes if they waited too l

federal reserve, the chair woman janet yellen. let's listen in. >> the central open market committee decided to raise the target range. this action marks the end of a seven-year period in which the interest rate was held near zero to support the recovery of the economy from the first recession since the great depression. it recognizes the considerable progress that has

manus: that was fed chair janet yellen speaking in washington.er comments come as the latest sign that the committee are ready to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. still with us is george and bloomberg's chief international economics correspondent, simon kennedy. are we there yet, george? george: i think we are. time, wasor the first quite clear, i thought, so i think we should expect that they will tighten. manus: dovish forward guidance compounded yesterday, which was the rate rise pace will be down to actual progress on inflation. simon: you are going to see more and that if and when they do hike this month. it is not the hike, but the pace of future hikes next year. quite a disparity in the market and economists about how aggressive the fed will the next year. forecasters say one more hike, but not until june. manus: what does that say to you about the u.s. economy? -- what, 1.5% by that end of next year? george: i think this idea that the federal reserve is setting out to raise interest rates once or twice and then they are

if you listen to what janet yellen said, it's going to be conditional.a through the fed meeting before they make the decision. i said this over and over again, i think the fed pace of increases is going to be measured, moderate pragmatic. maria: next year-- >> the fed paces themselves at a more measured tone. dagen: it seems like people are missing something underneath this. we talk about the fed's raising rates for the first time in nearly ten years, but how do they actually get rates up? they have to use unprecedented, untested measures to do that and nobody knows, nobody, not even the people at the fed, knows what the impact will be on financial markets because we are entering unknown territory. maria: especially with a $4 1/2 trillion balance sheet. >> they're not touching, right? >> this is why the fed is doing this in a pragmatic manner, why they'll raise and pause, see what the implications are for the financial systems and real economy and why this is going to be, as i said before, the fed is going to act very deliberately. the last thing you wan

we just heard janet yellen speaking about the risks of waiting too long. do you think there's a risk of the fed going too early. >> i'm more concerned about this inflationary pressure. we're talking about not meeting the expectations for the last four years. you have seen a report about the whole middle income. it's shrunk first time in a minority compared to 1970. the largest cycle points to disinflation and my view is that -- let's say fed doesn't go now and it makes a mistake it can always go next time but if you go now and then if you have it you can't put the same thing back the way you did now. so i would earn more in the signs that i'm not concerned about inflation. if there's a concern about inflation it's that we don't have one. >> that's a failure on the part of the central bank. and not just the fed. is it realistic to assume through qe through the stimulus that the central banks can still reach inflation of 2%. >> i doubt it. what you have done is why i keep coming back to the whole middle income. the middle income really supports the growing g

let's turn to janet yellen and her testimony. jobs, confident about inflation goals are attainable, making no promise of a december rate hike. there is nothing yet in her testimony that is different, correct me if i'm wrong, from what we have heard before. >> it is the same as the speech she gave yesterday to the washington economic club. there is a danger in waiting too ,ong for rates to go higher setting congress of the same way she set the markets up yesterday. she has to explain to members of congress who do not want the fund to move, why they are doing that. she will get some questions fedt that politics -- about politics. how the you think the fed and chair yellen have been communicating? >> i think she has been pretty clear. it is likely that rates go up in december, but the much more important message from the fed and janet yellen and her colleagues is that the rate hike path would be very different from furious cap -- from previous paths. along, janet yellen is now beginning her testimony, so let's listen in. >> since th

divergence when it comes to monetary policy since janet yellen is looking forward now to a rate hike that would be a testament to the u.s. economy's recovery from recession. yellen testifies before congress later on today says the timing of a rate hike really isn't as important as subsequent moves which she says will still be gradual. >> were the fomc to at the lay the start of policy normalization for too long we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk taking and thus undermine financial stability. >> u.s. markets selling off after the yellen comment which is are the most hawkish that we have heard and pointing to a rate hike this month. u.s. futures are telling us we will recover from it higher above fair value. so dow jones industrials recovering 148 points. >> that's it for today's show here on worldwide exchange. thank you for watching. >> u.s. squawk box coming your way next. >>> new t

janet yellen: job growth has been solid for a number of years.isposable income in spite of the fact that wage growth has remained in that 2%, 2.5% range, there's been a lot of job growth that is added to disposable income. david: she is saying she is still worried about slack, big jobs report coming ahead of the meeting. how bad a number would we have to get for there to be a bad number that would forestall the feds raising rates this month? the fedt does look that is heading to raising rates. 75% probability that the bloomberg showing amongst economists in the markets. i think they should not be doing that, because the number we should be looking at is the employment rate, which is 3.5 ts below what it was pre-recession. the proportion of americans in jobs is much lower than it was. the amount of slack in the andomy is really very high, the logic is that wage growth is nowhere. have a view that we are a long way from full employment, and these jobs numbers should not be pushing the fed there. the worry is if they raise rates, they have a negativ

. >> janet yellen, today, said in the press conference suggested, to me, a rather hawkish stance. definitely not thoroughly modern millie, or thoroughly modern janet. she is a fed in a fed model that emphasizes transitory rather than structural factors. she suggests short legs in monetary policy. the site is living -- the fed is living in an old age as opposed to a new age. it is reflective of high leverage. reflective of globalization. effective factors in terms of demographics. >> i want michael to jump in. i have to ask you the key question of the dysfunction between full faith and credit and the high-yield market. which way will that spread differential play out? is a going to move higher in yields or do we see real carnage in the high-yield market? >> i think we reached a point, at least to rarely, of spaces in the high-yield market. for the most part, it is a function of retail. retail conference. it has been shaken over the past few days. and over the past few months. high-yield prices have gone down i 5%-10%. i think at the moment with high yields where they are, and the 5

the reason janet yellen's small move could have an impact on your bottom line. and donald trump is not back down. >> san bernardino, he was born here but she wasn't. >> the only live national news show at 11:00 eastern. >> we start with breaking news. >> let's take a closer look. >> every day is another chance to be strong. >> i can't get bent down because my family's lookin' at me. >> to rise, to fight and to not give up. >> you're gonna go to school, so you don't have to go war. >> hard earned pride. hard earned respect. hard earned future. >> we can not afford for one of us to lose a job. we're just a family that's trying to make it. >> a real look at the american dream. "hard earned". sunday, 10:00 eastern. only on al jazeera america. >> we're back talking about the federal rirve' reserve's decision to raise rates one quarter%. my next guest says janet yellen has another reason to raise rates, so she can lower it plaimpt later. ecri successfully predicted down turns, good evening, good to see you. i asked ken rogoff about this, the likelihood of them needing

janet yellen and policymakers hike interest rates.arkets around the world go into rally mode. good morning, i'm nicole petallides. >> cheryl: good morning, i'm cheryl casone. the dow soured over 220 points yesterday. the dow pointing higher by 55, s&p by 5 and three quarters. >> nicole: on the camp taken trail donald trump talks to the commitment to the republican party while hillary clinton doubles down on taxing the wealthy. >> cheryl: defense secretary ash carter in hot water after the pentagon admits he used personal e-mail. >> nicole: city of baltimore on inch after judge's declaration of mistrial in the first case charged in the death of freddie gray. >> cheryl: and in sports soccer star abby wambach puts up the cleats. fbn:am, first look at morning markets and breaking news and what to expect on the day ahead. >> nicole: that hike coming seven years to the day after the central bank cut its benchmark rate to near zero levels. traders are applauding, but the rate hike is drawing mixed reviews from economists. >> right thing fina

the reason janet yellen's small move could have an impact on your bottom line. and donald trump is not back down. >> san bernardino, he was born here but she wasn't. >> i'm off the coast of hawaii. >> we are on the tipping point of an ecological disaster. >> this coral is not dead. >> techknow's team of experts show you how the miracles of science... >> this is what innovation looks like. >> can affect and surprise us. >> i feel like we're making an impact. >> let's do it. >> techknow - where technology meets humanity. >> we're back talking about the federal rirve' reserve's decision to raise rates one quarter%. my next guest says janet yellen has another reason to raise rates, so she can lower it plaimpt later. ecri successfully predicted down turns, good evening, good to see you. i asked ken rogoff about this, the likelihood of them needing the tool to have interest rates to lower is probably not too real but look at what's happened in europe. they've actually had to go into negative rates. >> i didn't think they would like if they didn't think a recession was

janet yellen's view is that you raise early, and then overall.t raise 17th is factored into markets and i don't think we will see that much reaction. it carries on with divergence in monetary policy between europe and the u.s. i think it will be more interesting to see what happens in q1. with q1, we could see good gdp number and good growth. we may have warm weather that boosts it over the winter. then you get the second rate rise in march next year. i think that is when people start saying -- is this something that will keep on going, and how do we look at bond markets? this time it is in the price. anna: global pacific currents are in favor of warm weather, i'm very? that should help the u.s. economy. if we get a rate rise, even if the pace is slow, doesn't put any strain on certain parts of the economy? i'm thinking of high-yield companies in the united states. some 25% of those are made up on the energy sector. they are struggling because of the weakness in the energy prices, and if they have to start paying more money for the money they bor

the reason janet yellen's small move could have an impact on your bottom line. and donald trump is not back down. >> san bernardino, he was born here but she wasn't. >> we're back talking about the federal rirve' reserve's decisio raise rates one quarter%. my next guest says janet yellen has another reason to raise rates, so she can lower it plaimplater. ecri successfully predicted down turns, good evening, good to see you. i asked ken rogoff about this, the likelihood of them needing the tool to have interest rates to lower is probably not too real but look at what's happened in europe. they've actually had to go into negative rates. >> i didn't think they would like if they didn't think a recession was on their doorstep. >> for fear to trigger it. >> to hasten to -- >> i like that idea. >> what you do if you bring up the appearance for example, they trieeuropeans frequent, now the. here ms. yellen said as much today and she said it in her minutes in past recent minutes that because of the climb in long term trend growth, real rates, the effective equilibrium r

really pushing janet yellen to make that rate increase.re thomas jordan of the swiss national bank, is janet yellen your central banker of the world? ewen: you want someone else to take up the heavy lifting. the fed is right front and center. the u.s. economy is in its cycle, rightly so. , janet yellen is the central bank of the world. that is one reason you saw mariota draghi soft peddling last week because the last thing they want is the dollar to be too strong going into next week. -- on theto be any fed side. thinko you and blackrock we will be a year from now removed from negative interest rates? ewen: in europe, no. in switzerland, no. --'re talking about negative a concern would be the inflation remains so subdued that we get a rise in real rates in america without normal rates moving. tom: you heard from esther cameron watt. it -- from mr. cameron watt. it is about nominal versus real rate. coming up, we'll have mr. ferri with mr.rsation thomas jordan. with futures up 11. now futures up 75. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ tom: go

the concern is the fed's chair, janet yellen, inadvertently or not, may adopt a more hawkish tone trigger be a wave of concern which means traders might sell stocks yickl lquickl. a lot is riding on what the fed is going to do and on their tone. b >>> our guest says the equity market is set up for what will be a rip-your-face-off rally that will surprise a lot of people. jeff, you are saying and your models are saying what a lot of market watchers aren't saying. why do you think we're going to see this rally and over what period of time? >> well, first of all, i think the markets were massive live oversold. they were as far below their 50-day moving average -- as oversold as they've been in the past three years. secondly, you're into this option expiration that everybody's worried about. historically december option expirations have been better for longer term downside protection. last reason is sufficient's entered the santa claus rally. it is tough to put stocks down in the ebullient month of december. >> your model pretty much called the august bottom also a turn there in october, as i

scarlet: i am glad you mentioned janet yellen.ude trichet spoke about the divergence between the ecb and the fed. >> it is normal that the central banks are reacting with the appropriate decisions to different circumstances. their goal is the same. to anchorf the ecb is inflation expectations at close to 2%. the goal of the u.s. is to perform at 2%. the goal is the same. i am fully confident there is no problem of the burgesses -- of divergences. scarlet: do you agree, brenda? brenda: i think the ecb has been slower to act than the federal reserve. that is due to the mandate that the ecb has. coupleeral reserve has a of mandates they have to fulfill. the ecb has a single one. stability was seen around the 2% mark. obviously, any sort of interest low move was to keep it rather than drive it higher. i think mario draghi is doing his best to do what needs to be done. i do feel there is a divergent path there. it does come down to timing and it is very much due to the fact that the ecb had their hands tied for a while. scarlet: brenda

listen into janet yellen. ms. yellen: we do not want to cause a recession through that type of dynamic. at some future date. it is prudent to begin early and gradually. also emphasized there was a lag between when the announcement takes place and it affects the real economy. the longer they wait, just to take you through the 15 year hikes,those are the rate 2006. that is when the crisis happened. and you had the zero interest rate holocene. riskonger they stay, the increases. that could tip the u.s. into a recession. they will be working with their primary dealers. the high and of the range. the amount not put in. that one goes into that one, at least that is the hope. these are the targets. what do you want to watch? these are the things you want to watch. are cominghen they out. eastern time. thursday, just after the lunch break in the u.s.. early morning in asia. that is when those will be published. these will show you how much demand there is for money with the fed at those rates. whether it works. let's go f

we had janet yellen speaking.ugh, as you heard a couple of segments ago, she did not say anything substantially different than what she had been saying, we have seen stocks go lower. i am curious for your market perspective on that. dan: i think you have got other moving parts and what you're seeing is the anticipation for tomorrow's's announcement from the ecb. i think that is taking center stage. the magnitude of what might be initiated moving forward, as far as rates and deposits, the duration of the liquidity position, and the amount of liquidity provisions as well. markets are taking that into account. maybe if they hedge a little bit , the market has been thinking -- that is why you're seeing a selloff this afternoon. i know your trade today has to do with small caps interestingly here. the iw m is what we are talking about here. why are we looking at that? from a seasonal standpoint, the small caps typically outperform the larger caps into january. given the fact that if you believe the market will continue

we believe janet yellen will bend over backwards to say the fed will be judicious.y will keep the economy moving n that environment, stocks could do very well. we're very positive next year. liz: key word would be gradual and moderated depending on what the economy is doing. john, thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. liz: john treanor, people's you nighted wealth management cio. stay calm. they will be fine. buy financials. they stand to do well. we haven't seen back-to-back gains in the s&p 500 in six weeks. we may see it today. that will do it for "countdown to the closing bell" join us tomorrow with the big decision. david, melissa, you will be a part of it. david: absolutely. thank you very much, liz. melissa: "tale of two cities." both receiving similar threats to area schools. the nation's second largest school system in los angeles standing by its decision to close all 900 of its schools. 640,000 students were told to go home and stay home. david: former mayor of l.a. will be here to weigh in on that. meanwhile new york city schoo

federal reserve, the chair woman janet yellen. let's listen in. >> the central open market committee decided to raise the target range. this action marks the end of a seven-year period in which the interest rate was held near zero to support the recovery of the economy from the first recession since the great depression. it recognizes the considerable progress that has been made to,d and >> the economy judged that the fund rate market is now appropriate. recognizing even after this increase monetary policy remains accommodative. as i will explain the process of normalizing interest rates is likely to proceed gradually. it will depend on how the economy evolves with employment and 2% inflation. it will target the range when it sees further improvement in the labor market and it was reasonbly confident that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term. in our adjustment these two criteria have now been satisfied. the labor market is clearly shown significant further improvement toward our objective of maximum e

they give a nod of approval to janet yellen's rhetoric. the european close starts right now. ♪ betty: we are going to take you from new york to london in the next half an hour. so mark, kick things off with how europe reacted to this. mark: janet yellen said the economy in the u.s. is in good shape. the path of rate hikes will be gradual. what more do you need for a rate hike rally? it was stronger earlier in the day. the three-day rally is the biggest in four months and it wasn't solely a stock rally. bonds rallied and the euro fell for a third day. and this is the key index, the fear index, it felt the most since august 2000 -- august 27 2015. calm after the said rate hike record. betty: we are going to be talking about divergence. more data is coming up. mark: the drop in german business confidence was unexpected. they are in the foreground lower oil prices, does that damage the ecb's ability to reach its inflation target? we have the refugee crisis can that spill over and create a political crisis? the u.k. data was good. sales were st