fed chair janet yellen will be making their last speech before the blackout. begins. markets are practically guaranteeing a fed rate increase this month. couldd chair yellen acknowledge the deterioration and harder economic data or she relativelythe wave soon. joining us is senior u.s. economist for bloomberg intelligence. been set the softer data is better and the harder data is not may be as strong. we have seen manufacturing come in as forecast. we saw the service data come in quite well. where in the hard data are you seeing this? >> just this week we see revisions to gdp data. while it could seem like it is , it actually tells us all the strength in the economy is coming from the consumer sector. economy depends on the consumer. we received is that consumer spending a summer income adjust for inflation is actually a actuallyting -- decelerating. >> what about the idea that we are getting inflation. that would bode well for them? inflation is moving in the right direction, but it is not there yet. they just keep saying we are close but not there yet. they could hav

but what did we learn from chair janet yellen's comments after the meeting? bloomberg television and said that one thing was clear about yellen's stance. >> we learned that janet yellen is the perpetual doves, i suppose. even when conditions are rather hawkish in terms of full employment and employment growth , it proceeds in a gradual way. i don't think it's inappropriate . i think it's high leverage in the u.s. economy and the global economy. they have to proceed in a very gradual way. but she is a dove and that is why the markets reacted like they did. coming in this afternoon, i guess that's a good thing, bill. help me here with where we are going. i think there is great confusion about where neutral is. we have a restrictive policy and and our financial repression. which year will we get there? it will take longer than two years which is what the fed has suggested at the end of 2019. they call the neutral rate of interest. zero significantly below for the last five years. it is 1% or 2%. the question becomes what is the in a world damaged significantly in

so, that is how janet yellen the donald trump impact. people waiting to see. that is what is so interesting. where does this leave the markets now? we have been watching wirp for some time now, so where does wirp stand now? of a may hike are only 13%, but there is no press conference, so people figure the fed will wait until june when there is a press conference. money atare 50%, even this point. investors and economists will be watching economic numbers. december is the next month when the fed is expected to high, so that will be in focus. at four rateoking hikes, you are looking at that september meeting. stocks rallied. it is amazing to me that there was an undercurrent that the fed was going to get more hawkish, and they didn't. markets really seem to like it. rishaad: the fact the fed did not raise the consensus, but there was reassurance, wasn't it? >> there certainly was. you saw it in the market reaction. you saw in the commentary issued by some of the economist on wall street who might have been concerned that that was too preemptive, antici

janet yellen had no choice. to prevent the economy from going off the cliff she needed to be proactive, no longer needs to be as proactive. >> behind the curve for some time, they don't want to find themselves in that situation of growth happens too quickly. i agree with the other panelists. we have this growth in the economy and new jobs coming in and inflation is the to present mandate. the reason they should raise rates, and they did and the real question again is trajectory and velocity they do it in the future. they mentioned it will be two more this year, possibly three next year. in 2019 around 3%, long way to go. they havto raise rates at this point to keep stability in the markets and the markets like stability, they like to have prediction what is coming forward. trish: she had everyone over the head with it. a couple weeks ago, clearly signaling this is what she is going to do. >> he wants no surprises, doesn't want anybody to be surprised, here's what is happening and why i am doing it, she's laying

up next, more about the fed and all eyes on janet yellen in chicago. a hike this month near 90%. this is bloomberg. . . manus: investors receive clues from yellen's speech today. odds for a march hike around 90 pebble beach. anna: more than 60 french politicians say they can no longer support the presidential account as the embezzingment scandal engulfs her campaign. manus: it is day break, europe. it is our flagship morning show. i'm manus cranny. anna: i'm anna edwards. manus, you have some numbers out of germany? manus: i do. retail sales declined .8 pblet. the market was looking for a rise of .3%. that is a month-on-month figure on the retail side in germany. could it be the little bit of confidence with ve seen? -- we have seen? shaky in the u.s. etail sales come the at a drop of .3%. a little bit of a shakedown for germany in terms of data. anna: things looking different in the year-on-year number . mixed looking picture in that data perhaps. breaking news from the l.s.e.. the big m&a story we talked about many times has had cold water poured on i

we will hear from both stanley fischer and janet yellen today in and around lunchtime.ill they stick with the rhetoric of the last two weeks to suggest march is possible or change the tone? let's look at data out of asia overnight. japan's core consumer prices rose for the first time in more than a year. january core cpi at 0.1%. forecasters expecting the number to be flat. japanese household spending did drop more than expected. asian equities ending on a soft note. not been a great week in asia. hasn't taken part in the wall street and european gains. you can see we're down about three quarters of a percent in hong kong. european data as well, uk february services pmi coming in at 53.3, consensus was for higher, 54.5, which was also the prior reading. so that fall in the headline index coming down due to softer rise in new work. business optimism remains fine, but the point being this is lower than what is going in terms of across the rest of europe and potentially shows a bit of a slowdown in the uk for the first time post brexit rally. eurozone final services pmi, 5

gold waivers as janet yellen adds to expectations of a march hike being alive.d miner resolute here falling. we have an ecb and rba decisions this week. this will be the focus as the fed goes into its quiet period for the march meeting. let's get to first word news with paul allen. james clapper has denied president trump's claim that the obama administration ordered wiretaps on trump tower during the election campaign. came via breitbart news. there are calls for a congressional investigation. however, james clapper denies any wiretap was ordered. the french presidential n has rejectedo calls to step down, saying he is being attacked by those that want to block france's recovery. he has been accused of using public money for paying his wife and children for carrying out fictitious jobs. he denies the accusations. dozens of right-wing politicians have abandoned him. prime minister shinzo abe has strengthened his grip on japan with his liberal democratic party allowing its leaders to serve three consecutive terms. the vote came at the party's annual conference in

janet yellen will be speaking to the executive club of chicago.raders think that a rate hike this month is a done deal. we will look at european equities and trading. it is all about fed chair janet yellen's 6:00 p.m. european time we are up for the third week in 4. the currencies are rising against the dollar. the most yields are gaining today. commodities, sovereign, the world's big advertising company the most, falling following 8.9%, down 8% right now. slowd a relatively start, setting budgets conservatively. assuming an increase of 2% this year on a light from light basis setting its budget revenue on a light to light basis. it rose 3% last year. it is a bellwether of the strength of the global economy. companies expanding or cutting marketing budgets depending on the strength of the global economy. global ad spending may grow 3.6% this year versus 5.7% last year andto economic uncertainty the absence of the olympics, which bolstered expenditures last year. a fascinating piece of economic data from the u.k. britton's services index expanded t

but even with janet yellen speaking, no change.ver talk about long term indian rates, but there was a huge rally in government l bonds. and finally, french 10 year yields. this is the chart to watch. coming in on from middle of the that macoople assess n's odds of winning are on the rise. interesting that the dollar continued to sink a lower. scarlet: the dollar giving back recent games. weekd a big run-up this during a five-day advance as fed officials sounded hawkish notes. the mexican peso is the best-performing currency versus the dollar after comments by wilbur ross, saying the peso afterrecover quite a lot nafta renegotiation. it has been a big recovery since depreciating to a record low. also sitting around its 200 day moving average, so it might be stuck here a bit. joe: gold and oil up a little bit. cold catching a slight bit, oil up 1%. let's look at a one-month chart of gold. you can see the reversal. it had been higher, selling off lately on this general safety trait selloff, the same reason treasuries are selling off.

rate rise,fed sheet janet yellen warning there is danger. tightens his grip on power and may become the longest serving prime minister in japanese history.

we are hearing from janet yellen.rged to 77.5% from the cme and we will see the rate hike. your thoughts? >> we will get a rate hike from march. >> going to get a rate hike? >> the fed has been good telegraphing their policy and we have to be leave them for what they say, they have been clear on that. we have five fed officials capping off with janet yellen. we expect a rate hike in march. >> rate hikes are bad for stocks. we expect that -- >> and the economy is healthy. and that is what we have seen in the last 10 years. a stronger economy and stocks. >> so much controversy, the regulation will come and soon enough, the rollback and regulation and other things are going well for financial like a rate hike. >> i would keep buying the financials. they pulled back because they got very extended and you are absolutely right, the yield curve play, the growth play and regulation play and that is a trifecta of really good news. >> keith bullets, and on the stock exchange every day, thanks. warner: gamers line up for the new

we are awaiting remarks from fed chairman janet yellen.t was scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m., wall street time. it is scheduled to go until 2:00 15 p.m.. p.m. 5 dan moss jointly onset, and julie hyman as well -- let me ask about the historic perspective -- janet yellen was a looking ahead we expect the evolution of the economy toward further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate. how much is a strategy shifted over the last few years? dan: well, they have gone from a situation where they had to throw the kitchen sink at everything, and are transparent about that. rates were down to what economists call day zero lower bound. , theyere doing qe tapered, and there was a period rates were unchanged. 2015, december 2016, and now we're getting something in march. they are becoming increasing the confident they are close to goals. have a jobless rate of 4.7%, 4.8%, consistent with a long-term target come even though other parts of the labor market, as the chair may say, are not super awesome. inflation isre is there.e e

we'll be moments away now from the news conference from fed chair janet yellen. in promptly at 2:30 pm. she's usually pretty punctual. what do we want to hear from her? we'll talk about that and more as we await chair yellen. >> i would like to stop seeing that camera. we're getting a bunch of people's back of their heads, that guy's cheek bone. he missed a spot shaving here. apologize for that. so david, to me, it looked a lot more hawkish. dot plots went up -- i hate. the projections, out looks -- >> got more optimistic. >> more hawkish. but david kelly said it was as dov dovish. >> it is interesting to see what fed funds futures are saying in the aftermath of the fed decision from robert on the markets desk. 6% chance of a quarter-rate hike in may, and in june. >> five weeks ago the probability of a rate hike at the maven meeting was really very small. >> 30, 20%. >> then it got to 100%. >> very quickly. >> so that, to me, sort of explains the flip in hawkishness. >> the tonality in the -- >> tonality has changed completely over the last six weeks, right? >> go

rate rise,fed sheet janet yellen warning there is danger.be tightens his grip on power and may become the longest serving prime minister in japanese history. we are covering all of those stories across the globe from beijing. i will break down the work ul and china'so travel curbs on korea. >> we will look at how shinzo abe is strengthening his grip on power, giving him a shot at becoming the larger -- longest serving prime minister in japanese history. and talking about the rate hike, seems to be all but certain. this is daybreak asia, coming to you from the u.s. and asia. i am betty lou where it is just after 6:00 p.m. in new york. rishaad: it is -- yvonne: it is after 7:00 in hong kong. we are not talking about just beijing raining in its growth target, but when it comes to the looming rate hike that the martin is -- market is certain to price in, how will china's stem the offset? betty: you are right. the biggest risk for china and hitting the report on track is going to come from the united states and how fast and how far rate hikes are

in wall street, it is all about a speech by janet yellen. joining us to share his latest assessments of this market is michael holland of holland and company. and a wise head when it comes to market euphoria. justified inoffs stocks and treasuries? michael: the world has changed. you talk about france and deutsche. the u.s., obviously a huge change. repricing of assets around the world. the interesting thing is the backdrop, the fundamental backdrop has been improving. forget about the craziness going on of the world, but the craziness speaks to what people believe is going to be probably a better environment for profitability. vonnie: we will get back to the broader market in a moment, but i want viewers to get into my bloomberg and look at the deutsche bank. if you do bank go, behind the etfs.ghest priced talking they have been about this kind of stuff with respect to deutsche bank for several quarters now. not new news. having said that, they will figure out something. it does not mean you can't lose money in the securities. mark: what is

janet yellen was pretty positive on her statements in the economy.k like interest rates are rising slower than what was discounted in the marketplace. all that is favorable for the economy. melissa: as we look what is going on in these markets, the dollar is the victim today. it is at one-month lows against a basket of currencies. the nasdaq is just short of an all-time record. [closing bell rings] liz: only by four points here as the dow, nasdaq and s&p spike in the wake of what was widely expected to be a quarter of a point rate hike. that is what they got. here we go. closing bell with david and melissa. great action. david: it is great action if you have got stocks. stocks are soaring getting a big jolt at 2:00 p.m. when the fed announced it would raise key interest rates. when janet yellen said probably only three this year. that is when we went into triple digits. nasdaq closing shy of a brand new record high. hey, everybody, i'm david asman. melissa: i'm melissa francis this is "after the bell." we have you covered on all the first market move

with janet yellen --xi jinping visiting the u.s.an ensure that customers looking at global risks come to a warehouse of global risks. that is what cme's value proposition is. economies,wo major the g2 and china's economy. toare positioning ourselves work in collaboration efforts as we can to see to it that the revenue as a whole will be an opportunity and not a threat. this looking at the closing ceremonies in beijing. with most of these commodities being produced in asia and ofsumed in asia, at the end the day, the price determined in the west, how far and how long is that sustainable in your view? i think that when people are looking for deep liquidity pulls, liquidity wins. even though there will be scope for those to become more important in asian time zones, it will be a while before they prove to have the credibility and reliability that the overseas exchanges can provide. commodities are difficult. you have to have your deliver his right place, you have to .liminate some of the risk rishaad: up next, the white house is preemp

janet yellen will speak at 6:00 p.m. g.m.t. in chicago. giving the fed chair an opportunity to cement or walk back expectations for a rate increase this month. joining us now is bloomberg's macro strategist. do you believe yellen is going to confirm? does she have to confirm a large hike tonight? >> i don't think she has to, but certainly if she is to try to fight back against the guidance given by her peers earlier this week would cause a lot of confusion in the market and give a negative signal. i think she is likely to implicitly confirm one. she will be relatively vague but consistent on the message that the economy is ready for a hike soon. guy: why has the curve flattened out in the u.s.? this is strange. tell me what's going on. >> in 2017, the curve has flattened out a bit. it is a bit of a negative signal for the u.s. economy and policy. e're getting the flattening. what this is saying is that you know what? we're not sure we're going to get a sustained cycle or sure the economy will cope withan a sustained cycle. we might get a c

oft is a day in the life chair janet yellen look like? [laughter] chair yellen: a typical day in the life of chair yellen has many hours blocked off that say meet with staff, meet with staff, meet with staff. we have a ride range of range ofility -- wide response ability. we talked about monetary policy today. we have a lott -- of other responsibilities and supervision and regulation for the consumer and community and the other governors and i, we are privileged to have a wonderful staff both at the .oard and at the reserve banks highly professional staff, highly motivated staff, staff who are highly devoted to public service. discuss ath them to wide range of matters that are in our purview. and for days like that i really enjoy. to me, that is the most rewarding part of the job. there is lots of other stuff. you know, i am responsible for working with congress and making memberst congress understand the issues facing the fed and the economy, so a typical day might have a meeting with a member of congress, a one-on-one meeting. i testify

janet yellen says the data moves around.are on the path where we see things moving toward the goal. and it is interesting to see -- we are not on a preset course, confident, but we will have to watch both sides of the trade when it comes to the fed and the rate hikes this year. scarlet: i want to turn everyone's attention to fed go -- our landing page. you are allowed to look at market-implied policy rates not just for the u.s., but the rest of the world as well. it gives you a calendar. evans will be speaking on march 20, for instance commit one: 10:00 p.m. our thanks to kathleen hays, tom keene, and joe weisenthal. that wraps up our special coverage of the federal reserve announcement, "the fed decides. would you miss and the market closes next. the dow up 122 points. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" .reasuries rally i'm scarlet fu. joe: if you are tuning in live on twitter, we want to welcome every our coverage weekday from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern. rates bythe f

fed chair janet yellen signaled the most likely scenario sees rates changing three times this year. in recent weeks, fed streak and stronger economic data raised concerns among market watchers there might be four rate likes this year. >> policy is not set in stone. it is data dependent and we're not locked into any particular policy path. >>> the markets rallied with stock prices moving higher and bond yield. the dow is up more than 100 points. >> the fed is not going to precipitate any kind of recession. they're not going too fast but they're starting to get their groove. they're going to start doing what the market was expecting. >> today's statement was a little legal hawkish than some had feared so we're seeing rally in stocks and bonds. >> fed markets think they may wait until june for the next rate like. by then we should have a better idea of prospects this congress for president trump's plans for. at a cuts, deregulation and increased spending on infrastructure. for "nightly business report." hampton pearson in washington. >> steven whiting joins us now for more analysis on

we have already highlighted tomorrow's janet yellen yellen's speech beginning at 1:00 p.m.ave live blogging, all the highlights from her speech. of course, we will have charts that all of our customers can access as well. #tvgo is another one of our preferred functions. this allows us to watch what is happening on television at the same time. it has interactive charts, the programming you may have missed. actually go back to earlier in the day to look at what you might have missed. ♪ scarlet: snap made its trading today. at least $2 million in ipo's. snap outperformed all of them including -- all of them except for twitter. we bring in cory johnson who joins us now from san francisco. thing that already -- that always struck me is that snap.mpany's name is as that mean it will move beyond this disappearing cap that made it pop -- disappearing app? to offer company has something other than the one thing that is already done. in the case of snapchat, they change the name to step -- name to snap. one of the first things they say there is that it is a camera company. they intro

jonathan: this time next year will janet yellen be the fed chair? mohamed: no. should be a good pick, but i don't think so. lisa: no way. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this week right here on bloomberg "the real yield." a programming reminder, the lone dissenter, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari will be on "bloomberg daybreak: americas" beginning at 9:00 a.m. wall street time on thison from new york city for our viewers wodwide, that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 11:30 new york time, 3:30 p.m. in london. you have been watching bloomberg "the real yield." ♪ ♪ ily: it is one of the fastest-growing apps the world has ever seen that has revolutionized the way we express ourselves in a single photo. kevin systrom turned down a job for mark zuckerberg in college, shared a desk with jack dorsey as an intern with what would become twitter and in 2010, launched instagram as we know it. two years later, he reunited with zuckerberg and agreed to sell instagram to facebook for $1 billion. the company had 13 employees and

jonathan: this time next year will janet yellen be the fed chair? mohamed: no. should be a good pick, but i don't think so. lisa: no way. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this week right here on bloomberg "real yield." a programming reminder, the lone dissenter, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari will be on "bloomberg daybreak: americas" beginning at 9:00 a.m. wall street time on this monday. from new york city for our viewers worldwide that does it , for us. we will see you next friday at 11:30 new york time, 3:30 p.m. in london. you have been watching bloomberg "the real yield." ♪ . . ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. ♪ welcome- posts: hello, to this program. japan is going through

we are hearing from janet yellen from one -- from janet yellen at 1 p.m.e the effect? julian: minimal. it is a shot to the system that we move from this time last friday, wondering whether march with even on the table to this degree of certainty. what will be interesting for us is not necessarily what she puts her on march. i think we will be left with the same impression that we have now and terms of implied probability. but it's the probability of a june hike some of the next hike after, which is interesting. and if we hear language that doesn't allude to the potential for political uncertainties in france specifically, a juicy between now and then, that tells you the fed actually believes that the economy is moving along. the market tends to believe, well, ubs is a 2.4 and i argue is probably higher come around 2.5 or 2.6. jonathan: as we push toward the full coveragech, right here on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. that is coming up at 1 p.m. new york time. a check on markets for you. futures seeing a softer of them. down by 1.5% on the s&p.

you missed it. >> what she is missing is the reason -- >> janet yellen -- >> probably what janet yellen is missing because she is not timing rate increases to fiscal policy, the reason business confidence is up and the reason corporations are telling donald trump to expand some of it is baked in. it is confidence in the trump fiscal plan of taxes and less regulation. of those things don't materialize these rate cuts are not necessary and the markets will reflect that. >> you left one thing out, taxes, regulation, infrastructure spending, no question the markets, confidence at a high, markets feeling good and unemployment at the lowest rate it has been in many years, a trend that has been going on the last you tell me how many years. charles: one thing i will say, jobs being identical for the last three februarys, the last jobs report, construction, mining, manufacturing, they came back out of the workforce, that is the essence of household formation. >> they teased us in the past with that. i want to go to you about the fed being able to derail this. blocking them to the economy. >> the

fed chair janet yellen preparing her remarks.a, we will go to that live as it begin. maybe the rest of the year looks like. that's where investors should be a little more concerned b this one is pretty much expected. if there are going to be two more rate hikes that will impact a lot of -- equity prices especially. >> ron, do you think rate hikes can destabilize the market or is it more political policy that are the risks? >> there are risks on both fronts. with liz ann sonders at charles schwab, she did some studies on the pace at right hikes. stock market has had a favorable response. if the fed quickens the pace in the second year, it means the economy is strong enough to withstand it. that could be a good sign insofar as the fed is now normalizing rates. >> what's the go slow rate versus not go slow? >> they raised 425 -- >> greenspan? how long ago was that? >> greenspan to bernanke. >> owe long ago. >> that was going into the crisis. >> right. >> the fed may screw up and, therefore, everything will come crashing down or mayb

also this afternoon, same time, here on c-span3, we'll bring you news conference with fed chair janet yellen, the fed is meeting today, expected to announce a bump up in the interest rate, we'll hear more about that from the chairman janet yellen at 2:30 this afternoon. so here on c-span3, waiting for this hearing to get under way, the votes under way in the senate, so things should start happening here in the judiciary committee in just a bit. >>> you can see senator grassley in the room, the chairperson of the judiciary committee, and the first of two hearings we're covering today in that committee. this one this morning looking at immigration fraud using k-1 visas, the type of visa that allows a foreign national to enter the u.s. for 90 days to marry a u.s. citizen. and this afternoon, the judiciary committee hearing looking at russia's interference in elections and world democracies, that's at 2:30 eastern, over on c-span.

janet yellen will hold a news conference 30 minutes later.ou can watch complete coverage right here on cnbc. in addition to the fed, there's a fair amount of economic data today. february retail sales and consumer price at 8:30 a.m., followed by january business inventories and the nahb survey at 10:00. with the fed, we want to watch the dot plot, which is much more important. it wasn't so important the last couple of years, it was never really stuck to. people have a belief that the mentality at the fed has changed, conditions have changed, and the dot plot may be more accurate than in the past. >> so the dot plot is the projection by fed members on when they'll raise interest rates, how many times this year. in december when they raised rates last, they projected three hikes, now the buzz is things are looking up so much, it could be nofour hikes. does that matter? does that spoil the party in stocks. that is the question nobody knows the answer to, when does that reach a pain threshold. there's the politics of the fed, which is important r

janet yellen making her message loud and clear to investors. >> the simple message is the economy isoing well. we have confidence in the robustness of the economy and it's resilience to shocks, it performed well over the last several years. we've created since the trough in employment after the financial crisis around 16 million jobs. >> so that was the message from fed chair janet yellen, which was a good question that was asked, which is what message are you sending to consumers today with this rate hike? things are on solid ground. >> we'll discuss that more with steve liesman in about 20 minutes. >>> there are several pieces of economic data. weekly jobless claims, february housing starts out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. at 10:00 a.m., the jobless claiming. we'll have minutes from the previous monetary policy committee meeting. dollar general reports results before the open, after the close, adobe system. after the xhacompany reports, adobe's chairman will be on closing bell. >>> to politics, lots of developments out of washington overnight from a hawaiian judge blocking the president's

lori, investors really liking what janet yellen said. reporter: they did. in fact it was a bit of a relief on the floor that we'll get three rate hikes including today's, not four. that is why you saw the stock market shoot up. dollar got crushed. typical seeing markets moving in that direction when you have a growing economy, with a fed still despite a rate hike today, pretty dovish how the move was interpreted. look how sectors performed. infrastructure stocks had a great day today. infrastructure spending part of the president's economic growth policy. look at united states steel, up better than 5%. and homebuilders, we had a report this morning industry survey showing that homebuilder confidence, best in 12 years. no surprise those names caught a bid today. all-time highs today, because of the fed and expectations much economic growth. apple, facebook joining likes of google. back to you. david: lori, thank you veryuch melissa? >> oil ended up 2% at 48.86 a barrel. crude getting a boost from a weak dollar and first boost in u.s. supplies in three weeks.

here are the highlights of janet yellen's news conference.oday's committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by one quarter percentage point, bringing it to three quarters to 1%. it also reflects our view that waiting too long to scale back some accommodation could be required to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession. the basis for today's decision is simply our assessment of the progress of the economy against our long-established goals of maximum employment and price ability -- price stability. the data from quarter to quarter, we haven't changed our view of the outlook. ,e think we're on the same path we haven't boosted the outlook, projected faster growth. we think we are moving along the same course we have been on. we are getting closer to reaching our objectives, the policy is accommodative but also the level of the neutral federal funds rate is probably quite low. have antheless accommodative stance of policy a

forre all looking ahead comments coming from janet yellen.ming outus of fed speakers over the last few days. markets pricing over the 90% probability. on china in beijing. the national people's congress getting underway. perhaps the, capacity. >> we do have in pc as you mentioned opening on sunday but today, we have the cpp, cc kicking off its 11 day gather he. that is the government's top advisory. property among the biggest is that the u.s. rate hike possibility on the sectors. new orders did rise compared to january. at 945. down about half a percent following for a second day. a stick a look at what's going on. we had the peavy oc fixing slightly weaker, the six spot. ahead of that gathering. we have seen the yuan following. it. is closing it is closing in. the see that emerging market currency. it is trading at the narrow , it could send ripples perhaps through the yuan's newfound comments. with the currency and financial market are giving the worries. expectations. limit the probably appreciation to contain the risk of u.s. protectionis

janet yellen was picked by barack obama.y analysts do not expect donald trump to extend her term, which and next february. >> we have been said-watching and stock-watching from wall street. let's bring in our guest. >> i have peter here, a floor trader for 30 years. he you have seen much higher interest rates than right now. >> absolutely, but i think we are in a new rule mode. it finished a solid, up 20 points. the reaction to the fed was much different than people expected. >> what was your main take away? any big surprises? >> the market was not selling off for the last few weeks. it was curious. for the first time, it seems people are accepting the fact she is raising the rate for the right reasons, that the economy is doing better, so it is a data-driven interest rate raise and the market reacted in a positive way. >> one side effect might be if the rates are going to increase further, the debt might be more expensive. could that be bad for the u.s. consumer and economy in the long term? >> interest rates are at 50 basi

jonathan: this time next year will janet yellen be the fed chair? mohamed: no.t: i don't think so. lisa: no way. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this week right here on bloomberg "real yield." the lone dissenter, neel kashkari will be on bloomberg daybreak: americas beginning at 9:00 a.m. wall street time on this monday. that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 11:30 new york time, 3:00 p.m. in london. you have been watching bloomberg "the real yield." ♪ mark: from london, i'm mark. bonnie: and from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. mark: we are going to take you from new york to london with stories out of berlin, washington, and china. here are the top stories we are andowing on the bloomberg around the world. angela merkel for the first time with donald trump. the german warns of they may retaliate against any new u.s. import tariffs. a global rally spurned by the president and markets are beginning to lose momentum. emerging markets having their best week in a year. theresa may could be days

anna: janet yellen.te the move higher in rates, both the dollar and 10 year treasury yield fell on the announcement. joining us in the studio, peter chadwell, head of european rate strategy. rate have you on the program to tell us your thoughts post fed group. see so muchng to market reaction to something so widely expected. the way she talked after the decision. the things she said and some characterize this as dovish. is a fair that characterization. the point of what the fed is doing here is they are increasing rates, but also acknowledging the terminal rate. the peak of their interest rate cycle is still not very high. in that speech, she talked about still having a low neutral interest rate. that is important. the pace of hikes is still going to be gradual and that is another reason we had the rally in treasuries. and this is on gradual. but secondly, it means that we don't have to be too concerned about getting the funds rate up to a certain level very quickly. we do have to be more concerned about

janet yellen will be speaking as well as other fed speakers.nd there is a congress vote on obamacare revisions. ramy: that is right. some people are bullish about this, depending what happens tomorrow. some people are bearish. i talked about the bear and bullish side of things. i have a chart on the bearish side of things. the s&p 500 setting itself up for a near-term drop. 500,hite line is the s&p at 23.48. the bottom line is the relative strength index. the red line indicates the s&p 500 might be overbought. the green line, that it might be oversold. the fact we are heading down toward the green line potentially implies we are on a bearish track. that, we may go from 23.48 to 22.8. we look forward to what is going on on thursday and beyond. they lookill ahead, to what is on the agenda for chinese premier li keqiang's australian visit and whether they could be a movement on trade. betty: plus, what the trump administration may mean for the global retail market. we ask our next guest what he sees opportunities in new york and what he makes of e

janet yellen will be talking to the media.have major markets about open in a ♪ betty: wrapping up china's annual policy meeting as washington's is beijing is high on its list of problems. theresa may says she will trigger brexit as much -- this month. dutch voters hold the key in the latest test of nationalist politics. special report from amsterdam. is the second hour of "daybreak asia. ,'m yvonne man in hong kong where it is just past 8:00 a.m. can you imagine traders are taking a whole lot of risks to 24 hours away from that said decision. -- from that fed decision. first, let's get the first word news. haslinda: the european union may force the u.k. to wait until june for brexit negotiations despite prime minister theresa may confirming she will trigger the process this month. eu sources say the other 27 members are looking at a number of two years to begin talks. when she invoked article 50 of the treaty, power shifted to the eu. proceed in the coming days, so we remain on track with the timetable i set out six months ago

were there any surprises you heard in the fed statement or in janet yellen's forecast? >> she showed a lot of confidence and where the economy is. that is something we've not heard as much from the fed before. the fed has been very cautious about potential downside risk and such. she made it very clear, saying people should be comfortable about the economic outlook. i think that means a different approach. we've heard a lot about so-called data dependency. the fed will always be responding to this or that piece of data. she seemed to be saying were confident we will move forward even if the data is not so great because we are pretty confident in where we are going. the pacet do you think of rate hikes will be that will follow in the next year or so? the forecast of how many rate increases there will be suggest there will be three or so per year. i think they are on a reasonable pace to do that for this year. it seems to be a reasonable expectation and consistent with the forecast back in december. now they are executing on that and raising in march. kate: re: entering a

and that's what janet yellen has said. this is all dependent, and this is what she has said on the investment in infrastructure bringing the jobs back to america, which is residential on a sustainable infrastructure that donald trump has proposed. now, if that happens, then that's good for the middle class. if it doesn't happen, this is only going to benefit wall street who has been driving up the economy. because the reality is there is a shrinking middle class and if it doesn't work, it hurts them. dagen: gary b, doesn't janet yellen have to worry about keeping her job if she wants to stay until january of next year? >> it certainly puts her in a very precarious position. look, the people are human. they want to pleas th please the president, no matter who it is. there's no doubt that her and the president are at odds. i think in this case she can slip in that quarter point rate hike without trump going ballistic. any more after that, then she better be looking for another teaching job because donald trump's not going to

two, does he have the backing of janet yellen? >> let me get back to you. i don't have any comment on the federal reserve. what i will say is, you know, as

we had trump's speech to congress and janet yellen talking on friday. three major indices closed in the green, but really barely moving. the dow jones up 0.1% and the s&p 500 up .05%. pretty boring, yousef. yes, we were two hours away from the opening of the emirates market in dubai and abu dhabi. a good benchmark there. and you can see it's pretty much unchanged. that really puts the downside index.e on the the abu dhabi commercial bank is driving the gains in the abu dhabi stock market. we see big gains and consumer discretionary utilities. we have a weak spot with some financial concerns. but your travel, that stock moved under speculation it could have a tie up with big deals out tour in asia. also egypt, strong gains, up 2.6%. the finance minister underscored, tracy, the increase is going to happen gradually. tracy: thanks. oil is never far from our mind in the region and libya and has launched air strikes against a group known as the benghazi oilnse brigade that seized rigs, driving prices higher. let's get to anthony dipaola. anthony, welker's th

the janet yellen bloomberg dovish fed has got vacancies. there is going to be a presumptive's -- presumptive change. i don't know if we can make any on where productions the fed wants to take the environment. but indicates a change in the marketplace as it relates to the near-term probability. the reality is the fed talks an awful lot. hear the same thing out of them, they would love to raise rates. they redefine what those targets would be. certainly there is a higher probability of the fed going at its next meeting in march. on the other hand the quotes you put forward a few moments ago indicated what she said was soon. soon doesn't mean march. a very poor record of actually doing what they said they were going to do. >> not only does the fed have a poor record -- in general if we any investor trying to -- ict rates, it is failed jonathan: comparatively earlier yes, but as the fed behind the curve to some extent already? >> the way to fed defines it, even the way they define it they are somewhat behind the curve. properlyay it should be d

janet yellen has talked about that.a sense that they will get back to normal, then we can operate in the good ways that we have in the past, the 1980's and 1990's. >> that was john taylor from hong kong earlier today. investors are not necessarily counting on the reality of tax reform. the proof is in the data. surgeddman stocks index as much as 14% after the election. it is now down to .8%. -- 2.8%. you go beneath the surface. if you look at stocks, they have shrugged a little bit at the health care failure. not this group. joe: that was a lightning rod for the markets. yesterday carrying over, we saw weakness. it has been down 2.8% in march. it erased its postelection game. -- gain. donald trump was talking about his phenomenal tax plan. this was on fire. everybody wanted a piece of the companies in this index. now it is coming off. you have to determine which aspects of tax reform are likely to get through and either invest or watch sectors that will be most affected. in this case the most direct effect of tax reform

coming up, comets from janet yellen on friday pushed -- comets from janet yellen on friday. we will put the fed and focus, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ live from london and new york, i vonnie quinn in new york along with mark artan in new york. this is bloomberg markets. futures are pointing to rate hike next week at the march 15 meeting in the federal reserve to discuss this with this. it seems there's a bit of a dichotomy between what the short end of the market is saying in the long and is saying. >> it is interesting the turn they are taking. the expectations went from 30% earlier in the week to after janet yellen's comments, which were very hawkish. the market shot up to 75, now close to 100%. this is due to gain to the cpi and the ppi will be a place in data. one of the most interesting things is the effect it had on the market. we saw the s&p 500 as it had peaked out at 2401, now pull back. we're gold futures down about 25 dollars, $30 from the recent high. and copper has come from $280 to about $265. it seems like when the inflation data does come out, you want to be l

francine: is janet yellen right when she says gdp is noisy?t focusing so much on inflation and less on gdp? peter: given that the fed is where it wants to be on the ,abor market, full employment gdp is noisy. it bounces around. we are there on the activity side. the labor market, full employment. how much does it inflation overshoot? the fed statement talked about that we are there on inflation as well. we shift was no longer expect inflation to rise to target, but we expect it to remain where it is, close to target. you look at the numbers we got recently, cpi 2.7% year-over-year. on that basis we may he slightly above target. the fed is saying that they have asymmetrical target. the reason they are focusing on inflation as they have achieved where they want to be on the labor market. the question is, how much do we allow the market to overshoot? francine: coming up on bloomberg surveillance we speak to davide algebris investment ceo. we ask about political security and the president's meeting with angela merkel tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪