stronger, yen stronger, then janet yellen started speaking.the gains for the commodities currencies soften a little bit. brazil was the strongest emerging-market gainer after that weaker than expected data. had lost some ground this afternoon as janet yellen was speaking. here.ities a story very good characterization of the action. let's have a look at commodities. the big mover had nothing to do with the fed. that was crude oil. down nearly 4%. brent crude in a death cross. increase gasoline andntories, gold down, silver gaining. those are today's market minutes. "what'd you miss?" as we have been discussing, the fed forged on with an interest 25 basis points and maintaining a forecast for one more hike this year. the fed laying out its balance sheet roll up plan. economists it did not know whether we would get details. stayed at three hikes this year. 2017 headline and core inflation estimates revised down a little the fed saying it is monitoring inflation developments closely. joining us now is a professor at princeton university. he was al

donald trump and janet yellen really did not become best friends.l street journal came up here today with a story that maybe gary cohen, the top economic advisor of donald trump, might be a candidate to fill in, but not right now. she will probably finish her term, then there is so much more time passing until february 2018, when he next chairman of the federal -- when the next chairman of the federal reserve will be nominated by the president. javier: it will sure to be one of his friends. thank you for the analysis. killing an elephant to get ivory does not sound like a sophisticated task. but the groups behind it are smarter than we may think. a study by interval -- interpol says smugglers are using the darknet as a platform for transactions, and it is paying off. trading with wildlife is the fourth most profitable illegal business after drugs, weapons, and people. reporter: four decades ago there was still an estimated 1.3 million l.a. -- elephants in africa. today that number is down to 350,000. poaching is to blame. elephant tusks fetch high p

janet yellen will have a news briefing at 2:30 p.m. i am joined by my cohost tom keene and michael mckee. gentlemen, my initial thoughts are the economic data we got this morning was interesting, critical data that moved in the wrong direction. bondl sales and court cba, debt and core cpi, does it give the fed reason to adjust its characterization of the economy? michael: i would say the same thing. based on the way the market is set up and the death and what the fed has said going to the meeting, you figure they will still go ahead with a rate move but it raises questions about their forward guidance. wouldonomic projections indicate one more rate increase but when you get to september, if we still see disinflation and weak consumer spending, do they really want to go ahead question mark they will have a debt limit debate underway in the possibility of a government shutdown. it may change what they say about what will happen going forward the rest of the year. what will they say about the balance sheet. tom: i agree with that. i agree

will janet yellen remain the fed head? that is -- trish: that is a very good point because, steve cortes, donald trump wasn't necessarily a fan of janet yellen's on the campaign trail. >> right. trish: and if you couple that what he said about her in the past with the fact that she is not necessarily doing him any favors here by raising rates right now, he might really be looking to replace her. what are your thoughts on that? could gary cohn be in the mix? any other names that you can think of? >> i think potentially, i'd love to see somebody like cohn, somebody outside of academia. enough of mit economists because they created a world by the way harmful to regular working americans. they have created in a sense ironically, donald trump you should appreciate janet yellen, because she created the kind of economy that led to his election. that is economy only rewards owners of assets which is very small slice of people to the detriment of working masses. how do we break outside kel? we're normalizing rates albeit slowly. wh

over the course of the afternoon when janet yellen was speaking, and ended inlosses the green. chnology was the reverse, higher in the day. as chair yellen started to speak a he went down to near session lows, down 0.5%. there are talks by some analysts that it was a growth to value rotation. let's take a look at what is happening in terms of individual stocks. the bank stocks up, goldman sachs up 1%. the best of the banking stocks. technology stocks, most were in red. we saw some reaction on the dollar in treasuries, as well. how did they do? see the actual graph, it is basically a horseshoe shape. the bloomberg dollar spot, you can see we were talking about the weaker than expected inflation and retail numbers. themthose came out, we saw deep. as chair yellen started to speak, they came back up. this is a similar look when you look at the treasuries. the u.s. two-year, which is more sensitive to movements in interest rates, came down and then up as chair yellen spoke, ending at the day 3.5%. the other yield at 1.2%. shery: thank you for that break. let's get a bond investor's

janet yellen there, the head of the federal reserve. saldanha. al exuberance warning from the fed. what did you think? richard: i concur. when we talk about yellen comments it is interesting to reflect on that. this boils down to this hard versus soft data debate we have been having for quite a while now. the strength in terms of business surveys, pmi's, etc. not necessarily feeding through in gdp numbers, inflation numbers, etc. that will happen, it will take a little time to feed through. from a corporate perspective things look quite strong. the earnings were continuing to be good. the hard data is earnings and that has been good. will be interesting from a needrate perspective is we more investment. janet yellen has been clear on that. from a company perspective a lot of that is dependent on policy certainty including what we saw with a health care will. as you see a bit more policies from the trump administration you will see that investment coming through. manus: with the faltering of health care, does that we can your belief in fiscal refor

janet yellen, on the front page of the journal, looking for her replacement. is that coming up? committee. >> it could come up. >> a small say whether that comes up i would have a small say woe possibly it could come up. >> ask it. come on. >> happy doing her job and not yet considered the chance to -- >> one thing, scott, get in there. we got guests. >> i got to say, i think that we got a lot of information today on just a lot more than all of us thought. >> oh, yeah. >> even my view, which was i thought they'd talk about the balance sheet, they way exceeded my expectation. >> scott, thank you. >> times exceeded our expectation. bond markets expectations. >> think about this. opposed to how many meeting it's last six meetings, we got virtually no information except information on changing rates. all of a sudden they use this as big data dump, and the market gave them a free pass. >> david kelly, comment and question comment, be on-set can't get in unless you're hear. got to physicianly jump lphysil jump in. >> true. >> a lot of people don't like janet yellen, view her leaning d

janet yellen is a dove. she is doing what donald trump wants to do which is marginally raise rates now and essentially say i'm not going to do it unless i have to. >> don't you find it interesting that donald trump said we should be raising rate and as a real estate guy i love low rates because people sign on to margin mortgages but now he said he likes the low rate environment. >> donald trump set all sorts of stuff during the campaign. one time he said ted cruz is old man might have killed jfk. the prerogatives of the job are different once i get into office he needs lower interest rates until he gets his fiscal policy through. if he doesn't get this fiscal policy through, then he better hope someone he puts in a fed chair is a dove and wants to accommodate because he's not going to have a lot of tools at his disposal. the thing is, the market is really interesting because you had bond prices spiking again. that really was the action. the bottom market said, were probably not going to get tax cuts this yea

what did we learn from janet yellen? hanging on for hanging on to their credibility or they believe inflation will creep up? the most interesting th ing she said about the balance sheet was this year. 2017, a lotetime in of people think because of the timing of their plan, this could start as early as september. beliefey do this, their is they will not affect interest rates at all. like watching paint dry, she says. it could substitute for raising interest rates in september. goingre is something else on in washington like a debt ceiling crisis or government shutdown. francine: it is unusual to have falling and rate inflation also falling. is the u.s. creating good jobs? michael: we are creating a lot but we arege jobs, also creating high wage, high skill jobs. there are a lot of openings in those high skilled jobs. we are creating the jobs, but not finding the workers. janet yellen talked about the need for additional trading -- additional training, problems monetary policy cannot solve. tom: i thought you were great in

a growing internet retailer focused on southeast asia and my guest says federal reserve chair janet yellen is way off the mark in a speech delivered in london she said another financial crash like the one two thousand and eight won't happen in her lifetime or beyond stand by the bust starts right now. deutsche bank went out on an inflation limb which put it on track to lose up to sixty million dollars the issue at stake is whether traders went around the risk limits on derivatives trades which were tied to u.s. inflation this of course calls into question the quality of the which is risk controls which have already drawn scorn worldwide let's go back to short months to what the federal reserve find to your bank for not keeping its traders in line with the volcker rule which restricts lenders from using their funds to make speculative trades those close to this matter say the sixty million in losses because of this that does not look like it's going to shrink the german lender which earned about two hundred seventy million dollars in the first quarter of this year now seeking to overall how

mario draghi and janet yellen all spoke. king to the british economy in london, yellen spoke no change. our global central bank watchers today. >> who doesn't love central banks? what are you talking about? [laughter] let's go to the boe. we are talking about some concrete action. that is in terms of raising capital requirements. clearly governor mark carney saying there is a need for a diet in terms of the u.k. financial system because of a credit binge we have seen from brexit accommodation. pop into the bloomberg terminal. i want to show you the borrowing boom the u.k. has been seeing. 10.3% the annual gain. it has hit its fastest peak since september. they are going to take out about 11.4 billion pounds from the system. they will increase the capital requirement. they will raise the capital buffer to 0.5% from 0%. if all goes expected, they will raise that to 1% in november. carney is keeping an eye on brexit talks. president mario draghi of the ecb is stressing persistence as well as prudence. take a listen. ghi: we can

lord stern's sitting down with janet yellen on stage. from what we should be looking at from michael mckee. she is overseas and the flavor of it different from what we might see from janet yellen in the u.s.? michael mckee: perhaps more focused on central banking in general than specific conditions in the united states that a local might ask about. there's enough to talk about that i think she will make a news. anna: it could be a wide ranging conversation. i understand from the british academy, could be asked about regulation, economic outlook, global monetary policy and all of this within an hour. michael: you know what the market's want to know, when is the next rate move coming

what will we hear from janet yellen today?hael: i would guess that is going to be a similar message from her. they are ahead of the ecb because they have announced plans for dialing back the balance sheet and have raised rates three times since december. she is going to reiterate that the fed is on a steady but slow -- and use mario's words prudent course of raising rates and conditioning the market to the fed's timetable. she will make the same points that draghi made about inflation. you can look past it because most of the factors are temporary. some of it has to do with currency translations. some of it has to do with oil prices. some of it has to do with one-off factors with the drop in mobile phone prices here in the united states. vonnie: let me come back to you and ask what the main risks that the boe are considering. jill: in comparison to the report last year, it is much more skilled back. the boe says the risks are standard at this point, but they are still monitoring consumer credit growth, which is why they took t

my guest says that is outrageous he says there is no excuse for janet yellen so-called complacency thieve head of economics history of politics that kingston university joins me now thieve good to see again what do you make of that statement. i just can't believe it i mean that is so delusional it is simply going back to saying before the cross as i said no crosses could have. the only explanation i have for across this was a huge exultation a shock something from outside the economy like thing struck by media from new york or really really bad luck and just bad sort of economic numbers absolutely and i'll explain and then also to the cross as janet yellen spoke at the harman minsky conference in two thousand and nine on raids very very superficially a piper by minsky where the argument is that these two crosses a systemic ten years later a coming up to the tenth anniversary of the cross and the only accept explanation for those beliefs is she still thinks it's going to shocks she still wasn't going to be on the media or from the loft she has still no idea of what the cross is it could an

janet yellen with plans to normalize monetary policy. that is next.is bloomberg. ♪ manus: betting on inflation. the fed hydrates. yellen says do not dismiss future price growth. softeright of the inflation readings the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. anna: details delivered. deutsche bank the lender said to announce a new structure for its corporate and banking division. manus: going soft. philip hammond is said to make the case for a brexit that protects jobs and economic growth. theresa may fights to stay in office. anna: turning to trump. the u.s. investigation into u.s. russian election meddling is whitening. looking at whether the president attempted to slow the flynn probe. tous: you're welcome "bloomberg daybreak: europe." anna: i am an edwards. it has gone 7:00 a.m. in london, 8:00 if you are in paris or berlin. weneed to be mindful of what see on the u.s. futures on the back of the story that the investors are probing if the president himself attempted to relation totice in the michael flynn story in that seems to capt

onare keeping an eye toshiba, looking ahead to reaction out of janet yellen what she has been sayingnd marriage draghi and that is how it is buying out when it comes to equities. looking at the markets themselves and etf's, i want to pull up a chart, #445, and this is the growth we have seen in the demand for these etf's, and now on pace to hit a record of $300 billion, topping 2015 and 2016 combined, growth driven by foreign buyers piling into these funds during the first half of seeking out u.s. stocks in this rising interest rate environment, all of this down to goldman sachs and saying it is only the second time during the past eight quarters that foreign investors have been net buyers of u.s. equities. there you go. all of this very interesting as we have had a slew of central banks be that take away from janet yellen, valuations and asset prices looking expensive, giving investors some food for thought. not much has changed in terms of whether we expect the fed to change or fear from its rate it down dayory, but in asia after the selloff on wall street overnight. we do have sou

stocks fell after fed chair janet yellen acknowledged valuations and equity and other asset markets haveisen noticeably in recent weeks. the deal was -- that was a code by john lamb's. yellen was speaking during a visit to london. >> asset valuations are somewhat rich if you use some traditional metrics like price-earnings ratios. i would not try to comment on and thosee valuations ratios, what to depend on in long-term interest rates and the sun -- there is uncertainty about that. by standard metrics, some asset valuations look high. there is no certainty about that. shery: president trump's agenda hit another speed bump with senate republicans postponing a vote on a new health care bill. members block to the bill. it was drafted in secret. it delays another setback on the seven-year campaign to repeal and replace the 2010 affordable care act or obamacare. >> we're going to talk and see what we can do, we are getting very close but for the country, we have to have health care. and it cannot be obamacare which is melting down. the other side is saying all search of things before they eve

rather eclectic in tols -- anna: let's go london where janet yellen is speaking. -- janet yellen rather eclectic, in total if something changes and the price of oil goes up or down or if there's under shock to the economy, what implications might it have for the economy's path relative to a baseline? and also models we would use to consider monetary policy strategy. the workforce model is called forb-us. of the large-scale model macro economy it is the intellectual descendent of the 1960's,ly model in the communists were very optimistic about their ability to model the economy. they began to develop large-scale models. this work was done at m.i.t. and brookings. ed, although use of these models in academia phil out of ther, -- fell out of favor, fed needed for these for the work we do and will continue developing these models. forb-us is the intellectual descendent of the early models. they have some of the characteristics that you described. first of all, they tend to have sticky wages and therefore, they and for deployment at a time and they do have a long-running growth path. it depe

janet yellen speaks at 6:00 this evening.n terms of what you can expect from janet yellen, issue going to give any clues or waiting for the data? simon: i would be surprised if she gives us too many more clues. problem,have a expectations surrounding 2018 because the market has a radically different view about what the fed will do next year. , startse starts to lead laying out a little bit more strongly her view but the reality is i suspect the market is probably right, that we actually are going to be talking about far less than three rate hikes next year. ed: it looks outwardly appalling . we have had a massive string of very poor economic outlook -- outcomes that tells you if they were data dependent they would never hike rates. francine: they are concerned they were never -- will not have enough ammunition in the next crisis hits. ed: if you raise rates you bring the risk of recession closer. over 80% of the time that fence hike rates they cause a recession so what they are preemptively raising rates they might -- it soun

back in august two thousand and seven you say in a recent article there is no excuse for janet yellen to complacency and it you say according to the o.e.c.d. back in august two thousand and seven the current economic situation is in many ways better than what we have experienced in years and then crash. coming right up in two thousand and eight do you think they've lost their memories. well they they they think with new a classical economic theory if you stick with that in theory you con remember anything it's all about equilibrium the system returns to recall agreement after him on a shock value even after a major shock it just takes longer and they think well they've got processor shock now. so they can forget about what happened back in two thousand and eight and they see that as being a huge external shock the odds of another huge one but trivial in the future this is a model which which rules out memory would mean. that capitalism is driven by a credit driven by debts as you accumulate more debt than it should dish and all boom locks are you going to have a crunch that's what hap

the dollar then recovered once we got the rate hike and janet yellen's comments.nded the day broadly flat this morning dollar strength by a third of a percent against the british pound and euro fractionally higher against the yen. gold prices, down around 0. -- up 0.6%. yesterday breaking a five-day losing streak. >> to today's top story, the "washington post" reporting the special counsel is starting to investigate president trump for possible obstruction of justice. eamon javers joins us from washington with the latest good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what can you tell us? >> the "washington post" story last night got all attention in washington, d.c., all of official washington focusing on the issue of whether or not the president is under investigation personally and directly for obstruction of justice that's what the "washington post" reported last night. let me run you through some highlights of their report with the caveat that i can't independently confirm this reporting. but it is not being denied by the president's personal lawyer or the white ho

the announcement from fed chairman janet yellen will come on at 2:00 p.m. today.xpectations are for a quarter point rate hike. we'll see if we get it the ten-year note holding on to 2.2% look at the dollar ahead of that fed announcement we will get data on inflation, retail sales and business inventory. a lot of economic data for investors to digest before that announcement the u.s. dollar 1.10 against the yen. we've seen some weakness against gold of late up week to date. right now at $1,270. >> i think the bond market and currency markets so calm ahead of this fed meeting. i would say if we didn't get that 25 point hike, it would be a surprise, but the hike very much priced in all eyes on janet yellen's testimony on the level of tightening to come, and the route they will do that, whether it's balance sheet reduction or interest rates 2.2% for the ten-year note >> as we said, the fed will be front and center today there's also a trio of economic reports before that decision may retail sales and cpi released at 8:30 a.m. eastern, followed by april dizziness buss

janet yellen pressed ahead with plans to normalize monetary policy.he ongoing strength of the liver market will prevail over the recent weakness of inflation. the bullish curve is going to work. she spoke following the decision. >> with employment near its maximum sustainable level and the labor market strengthening, the committee expects inflation to move up and stabilize around 2% in the next couple of years. in line with our longer run objective. nonetheless, in light of this softer recent inflation reading, the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. provided the economy evolves broadly as the committee anticipates, we currently expect to begin incrementing a balance sheet normalization program this year. is plan is one that consciously intended to avoid creating market strains. and to allow the market to adjust to a gradual and predictable plan. i fully intend to serve out my term as chair which ends in early february. i have not had conversations with the president about future plans. guy: let's get more details on what was said,

komal sri-kumar: she wants, janet yellen, not christine lagarde, janet yellen would like to keep hikingt. that assumes the united states is an island and she can do what she wants without much regard to the rest of the world. what you have is a situation where the central bank and europe are getting -- in the europe are getting more control and the u.s. is lacking. the ability of janet yellen and fischer,iams, stanley the way they want to tighten because of the somewhat rich valuation is all going to be offset by what happens to employment, what happens to the economy and inflation in the united states even where wages are not picking up. you cannot tighten in a very slow economy. with a they talk about somewhat rich valuation, you and i remember alan greenspan of the 1990's talking about a rational exuberance. to tightenmething it, it was too late, we were getting ready for the recession. i think that's the likely result if the fed continues to hike. guy: the eurozone inflation remains very subdued. if he starts talking up in the eurozone economy, we will see what happened yesterday, j

after janet yellen's remark it sent stock to session lows. oil tumbled to a seven month low we are watching that action but first to nicole on the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole, what did janet yellen say that spooked the market. >> she basically is saying look, there could be further rate hikes. i think some people started to run wonder about the hikes after they got tepid economic news and recently, overall with the retail sales numbers, just showing a consumer that is a little more conservative. inflation is not going the way people think. people started wondering about further rate hikes. they are unchecked but what's interesting is the market did raise during the time and we are closing at a record high for the dow. utilities paid dividends, that's a good way to make money. energy, and oil got hit because of the latest inventory numbers. : there was a little hope for a bounce yesterday. but guess what? that group was back in the red again today. that will be a technology chat throughout the rest of this week melissa: nicole

i thought it was the press conference janet yellen has done. thought she was a directed, committed, unwavering. there were questions that have been distracting. she laid out the pn. fry i ink some of the short-term data, she rightfully ignored and thought about the bigger picture. she is focused much more today on financial conditions. those financial conditions since march, they have gotten easier. jonathan: last year we were talking about a fed that did not stick to the forecast and they had a credibility problem. now we talk about a fed that ignores the data and somehow makes a mistake. which one is it? are they stuck within a rock and and a hard place? >> it is not clear they are making a policy mistake. they are sticking to a forecast dependency. they moved off of data dependency. there are some really good reasons for that. they cite the inflation data being temporary. that may eventually be an error, but right now, it is not clear that it is at all. this makes a lot of sense and it's important to the market that it is still data dependen

jonathan: final question -- who last longer -- prime minister may or janet yellen? n. >> yellen. >> yellen. two easy. jonathan: i love how much of what you are getting in. you have been watching bloomberg. ♪ megan: robert kraft leads a a corporate empire worth $5 billion. as the owner of the new england england patriots, he has built an organization that has won five super bowl championships. robert: in our organization, people are free to do what they do and are not encumbered by corporate bs. megan: kraft shares his thoughts on what makes tom brady special. robert: he's the most genuine, nice, hard-working person. a on his toll so with a league over to deflategate. i do not hold grudges, but i will also do not forget anything. [laughter] megan: and on his close, personal bond with president

that would be the way that janet yellen is putting it.ion going into the economy, and the balance sheet has not been drained. they are not starting that yet. they are buying treasury securities. david: they have raised rates several times, and yet financial conditions overall have become looser, not tighter. what accounts for that? does that at carriage them -- does that encourage them to keep going? mike: it does not encourage them to keep going, but it may give them some impetus to go farther and faster if inflation picks up. other central banks around the world are continuing to dump the -- to dump liquidity into the global economy. with u.s. rates higher than other countries, and the movement of global capital being so easy these days, the fed is having a harder time transferring monetary policy into the economy. that does not bother them yet. they are trying to get rates up to a more normal level for this level of economic activity. david: mike mckee, thank you for joining us from washington. the ecb is driving the bus, it appears. j

federal reserve chair janet yellen forged ahead with tightening monetary policy despite concerns overeak inflation. how will it impact the tech ecosystem, then sure, and how could that trickle down? joining us now, jeremy lou and the first the sea investor in snap. fed officials raising rates, the

we were watching before this a conversation with the venture janet yellen in london. anna: it seems that wilbur ross is speaking by video link in germany. janet yellen making a few headlines in her conversation with george nicholas stern regarding a whole host of macro topics. mike mckee still with us on set in new york. anything that's caught your eye? as we gone to the conversation, she does seem to be talking more about inflation and how to doesn't want to avoid making too low inflation ingrained habit is kind of comments. mike: she's finally getting to the good stuff, the things that wall street wanted to hear. she is saying the fed is going to continue its policies, it does not believe the phillips curve is broken. as long as unemployment continues to go down, the odds are inflation will rise and also, that upon implement falls farther below the national rate it --l employment, then the inflation rate will rise faster, and that's not necessarily a bad thing for the time being. she does say the fed is concerned about how the markets are reacting to what they are d

janet yellen really does need to do the review she hinted at. that this target needs to be changed. this isn't the economy we once had. and there's bottle necks in here and my opinion, due to a lot of policy errors. not necessarily all of our feds. that has to be addressed >> dorothy, what would you add to that? >> well, i'm not expecting there's going to be a total shakeup in terms of the targets. i think where she was guiding us we still believe that that's the right place to be. the same with the normalization, what they're doing with the balance sheet. as let's stay the course we need to get back to a more normalized situation and we don't want any surprises. so i'm not expecting any dramatic shakeup in terms of the targets. >> rick, can i tell you what's changed? what's changed is markets. the fact that the fed can do -- >> exactly that's where your inflation went, steve. >> say what it said earlier about the balance sheet and you have such a muted reaction in markets means the fed is taking advantage of the opportunity in the markets to normalize opportunities it did not have

turnes this probably can janet yellen's statement?rly subtle move what is it tell you about the violation bank in question mark >> part of janet yellen's comments were about long-term .tock valuation's to history that is one conversation. an entirely different commerce station is the value of a negative interest rate. a we are talking about extorted -- in a manner that getting into it it is an experiment and getting out of it. we don't know how we will caliphate. >> the financial conditions are tighter in the eurozone because of the euro. -- that will pose a real issue for the ecb and they phenomenal what they want. christ i think they will be able to tighten more than what they want. message is the exit policies.ntional that the market reaction will be predictable and that is the challenge. market -- a big spike yesterday. now from the ecb -- -- it is a big story. walk us what we have learned. yesterday, he talked about a potential path to stimulus. the euro rose, bonds fell. it was supposed the a bounce message saying they are all o

vonnie: janet yellen's future seems uncertain.visors want a new leader at the central bank orton to two administration officials. what do the markets want? we are joined now for that and other russians by the head of global interest rates strategy at td securities. before we get the discussion, as there is much to be discussed, let me ask you about the potential unveiling of the senate health bill, why should health care and its future have an impact on rates? huge impact will you what's next. if we can look kind -- we on health care, let's say it doesn't get past but they stop voting on it, the next step will be taxes. and i think the rates mac -- market has priced out for fiscal stimulus. the chance in the market is almost zero. if congress can stop -- start work on taxes, you got the entire fourth order. there's the debt ceiling and the government sharp -- shutdown, maybe the market will say, ok, we can probably price in a probability of tax cuts. i would argue that it would mean higher rates. house passage or non-passage of th

how do you read the warning shot from janet yellen?asmarket can flying too close to the sun and sowing the seeds for the next crisis defying gravity. bear inhe things to mind is, who is the biggest higher of equities in the world today? companies are the ones who are the biggest buyers of equities. you saw that with a large announcements of share buybacks. liquiditydo their own injection in the system. this has been a key driver of performance. it generates what is called earnings accretion. the question is whether this can be sustained, and we do need to see more capex to have the real sustainable long-term earnings required. manus: do you see those buybacks and during? kokou: no, because buybacks become less efficient. we like selling companies with week balance sheets and owning european equities. manus: thank you for go -- for joining me this morning, kokou agbo-bloua. you can watch the show using tv if you're a bloomberg customer. you can influence the conversation and ask the guest a question at the bottom of the screen. com

the fed reserve, led by the chair, janet yellen, had plans to shrink the bond holdings and massive debtse built up during the financial crisis. our correspondent michelle fleury sent this report. it is steady as she goes at america's central bank. officials here are determined to stay the course of slowly but steadily raising interest rates. the fed chairjanet yellen explained that with the world's largest economy improving, this and further rate rises are needed to head off inflation. we continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate to sustain healthy labour markets and stabilise inflation around the 296 and stabilise inflation around the 2% long run objective. and stabilise inflation around the 296 long run objective. and the head of the international monetary fund, speaking in germany, said that the hike was positive for america, long a driver of global growth. inflation is getting close to where it should be and notjust inflation but core inflation as well, so those are good indicators of an economy that is doing

trump aides want to replace janet yellen after her term ends .want to install their own person, however one positions as president trump likes yellen and feels no sense of urgency in the matter. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. voting from opec members is kicking up. the kuwait oil minister saying opec, non-opec compliance was 160% in may -- 106% in may but they need to do more. brent getting a break today but it has been a brutal year for the commodity this year. joining us from our european headquarters is our bloomberg news network strategist. have we seen capitulation? itif not, something close to . i think those comments tell us all when he to know about this deal. we have got a group of countries more than fully with the agreement they have done and yet we still have oil prices tanking. clearly this deal is not big enough. we said it before the last opec meeting that they needed to do more and cut further. they extended the cuts a

sh-- janet yellen. at least three republican senators said they would vote down a draft of their party's health care bill. plans to repeal obamacare in danger. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it is "daybreak: europe." here's juliette saly. reporter: bmw is bolstering its best defense against donald trump's trade row with germany. yesterday the german automaker revealed the revamp sports utility vehicle in the palin a, as it carolina, release plans to create another 1000 jobs. >> we are releasing in the united states market. it is our second home. we are manufacturing and assembly as many as possible. that is why we are investing in other $600 million, another 1000 jobs in the next four years. we are coming into the market with a new urgency. the united states is a very important market for us. reporter: italy's finance ministers says no more of his country's banks will need state aide. he was speaking in schools of lead to bloomberg after the italian government are castrated a 17 billion euro rescue of fina

we will get more from janet yellen with she begins in 15 minutes. welcome to the viewers on bloomberg television, listeners in radio. this is the fed decides. we have several people joining us. this is the former president of the minneapolis fed and is a bloomberg columnist and a professor of economics in rochester. and the chief investment officer from fixed income at often higher funds. let me start with you. tom gave a data check with the narrowing yield pledging. what does that mean? is that market signaling a policy error? rates policy of raising in the environment where the conversation is rolling over is indeed wrong. we can talk as much as we want about taylor rules. is allng this has proved of those are things of the past. none of them -- we need to think about that and take that into consideration. the something from the past, and we keep water -- working off of that, it is cap more. scarlet: pushing on the string. what should the new model be? >> we don't know. that is part of the challenge. , itou are going to err has to be on the side o

here's how janet yellen responded to the question of whether she would stay on after her term expiresry. what i said about my own situation is that i fully intend to serve out my term as chair, which ends in early february i have not had conversations with the president about future plans. >> our cnbc fed survey shows 6 % of respondents think fed chair janet yellen will not be reappointed by president trump that's down a bit from back in december with more unclear after positive comments trump made about the fed chair. leading the fed chair derby, the former fed governor, 24% think wirsh will be the new fed chair, taylor down 20%, and gary cohn at 20% glenn hubbard at 8%. chair yellen said she understood the white house is hard working three vacant spots on the fed board of governors we don't know how much work is being done looking for that next fed chair. steve liesman, cnbc business news >>> a lot to talk about with beth ann bovino. thank you very much for joining us this time on this side of the pond let's start with the monetary policy outlook the fed is forecasting one more hike

." ♪ coming up, janet yellen hikes interest rates once again as data in the u.s.tarts to soften. 10-year gilts drop to new -- yield dropped a new lows. raise cash literally today. we start with a big issue, hawkish fed chair janet yellen. >> this statement forecast is more on the hawkish side. >> they are trying to nudge the market in a direction that is more favorable to the vet. -- fed. >> they will go until the evidence is overwhelming and the other way. >> patient have looked at the data this morning and said this is really dovish. >> we can talk as much as we want about the taylor rule and phillips curve and all that, but this has proved that all of those are things of the past. >> we should be seeing the gradual upgrade inflation inflation that we saw for a while -- in inflation that we saw for a while and then stopped, which i think she did too. >> i think of them as being violent and a plane that are in ag to soft -- pilots plane that are trying to soft land the plane. >> joining me today from blackrock's rick rider, alongside him jeffrey rosenberg, and ha

what will be the first question for janet yellen? mike: people want to know why financial conditions are getting looser. then beforeser now they started the tightening cycle. does that mean they have to go faster to get where they want to be and avoid being behind the curve? that will be a key question for wall street going forward. jonathan: i want to bring in the chief equity strategist here. -- doto stick with this you stick with this? >> there is no news as far as the rate, but everyone wants to know if september is more or less likely. if september is on or not on, but the fed is not going to answer that. everyone will try to read between the lines on the issue. jonathan: it is difficult, mike. we want to know what kind of data they are looking at. we caught up with charles on the fed communications policy. take a look at this. thatat it really means is any datacan look at they want and decide if that is important to a policy and change their minds. i think it is important to be data dependent, but you need more information on h

janet yellen's press conference is going to be so interesting this week.ith this market rally from bonds, essentially not something we can consign to the history books. some people have been predicting it for quite some time. reporter: four or five years now. every year, it seems like the bears are proven wrong. but a great story today on bloomberg news about doomsayers saying it could finally have. -- happen. someone at deutsche bank sees it at 3.25% by the end of the year. even higher in 2018. tom said to bloomberg news that wages are already trying to rise. always do. that will put an end to the interest rate rally. let's look at this chart. we are going back to the early 1990's and the blue line is the 10 year yield for the u.s. it was around 11% then. follow that line all the way down. actually, the u.s. -- the u.k. guilt was so high. around 10 --ne was 8% for the u.s.. we have had a massive global market rally. the bonde reason why bears say at some point it has to turnaround, and when it does, it could be costly. strategists saying by the end of the

we have janet yellen and mark carney speaking tomorrow.are traders or investors saying they are holding off on doing because they are waiting for central banks to set the tone? >> it's an interesting in because -- different it's an interesting environment. there is a new element now where they are looking at specific economic data. i have a chart i want to dive into. case, theis is the type of numbers we want to hear from the fed. the top panel is looking at ppi finished goods. that's in the white. , that's what not wages look like, too. in blue is flat. if it catches up to output and wage growth, that could potentially have a negative effect on corporate margins. there is not a lot more room to stretch. if things start to get more expensive and wages take up, there could be adverse things to deal with. or maybe they will have to invest in productivity enhancing investments. >> you would think. upyou think rates are going -- and i know you have to deal tech situation and that's a big part of your interest -- infrastructure, you would think

we have janet yellen something more hawkish.he bank of england with five votes on those who want to raise rates. what does this mean for risk assets? there is a shift. get the bank of japan if we can mention that. cameron: we have been in an environment where we have had a massive fail of monetary policy. on the market, it is less supportive. ring theean we will bell and everything will go wrong? not necessarily, but the odds are not in their favor. >> we said it five times already and i said it, this word of normalization. isn't that a loaded term? what does that really mean? cameron: listen, we are at negative real fed cycles, which is abnormal in the grand scheme of the history of the united states. that is not regular. the neutral real fed funds rate is also lower than normal, which we have to take into account. it.that is the gist of we have been very negative for a few years now. --'s get somewhere let's let's get some were less negative. >> can we get into your scary data gesture again? actually, you can. my wife has told

the last section is janet yellen, an average of 1.1 percent. ld make yellen the only fed chair in three decades not sustained inflation close to the fed's goal, which is remarkable when you consider that she came in saying she would let inflation run hot to get more out of the labor market. joe: why is janet yellen so hawkish? [laughter] , the inflationy side is the fed focus. what about the labor market? this summer, american teenagers should find it easier to get a job. rates a 27% unemployment in 2009. what if they are not looking for a job? the overall participation rate, the white line, sitting around 62.7 percent. the blue line shows you the foricipation rate teenagers. now, the bls thinks the participation rate is going to go below 27% in 2024. scarlet and i were talking about this earlier. out byy being crowded those over 65? there are more seniors working then in 50 years. immigration? an interesting study about enrollment in college, of course, and education. two out of five have enrolled in school in july last year. that's four times

in march you were at that press conference with janet yellen. a bit, she was hesitant when it came to her answer when it came to the prospects of inflation. what are you looking out for in this? more on yellen may be that side of the argument now i'm more worried about week inflation. a couple of things, there were two or three fed officials who only sold to -- to rate hikes this year. what if you get more dot plots that have pulled back from three? that could be interesting to see . the fed will be updating its economic projections. in the policy statement, it may be a signal they see stronger gdp. we are going to be action-packed by tomorrow going through all of this to put it all together. >> we sure will. we continue our focus on the fed. coming up next, what asian central banks are doing. >> a preview of today's china factory data. by some are predicting a slowdown in growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is daybreak asia. aresian central banks stockpiling and rebuilding foreign-exchange reserves against a third fed hike in six months. tim jo

we do get janet yellen speaking in london, also the ecb portugal. meeting in that will be the focus for investors in this session. south korean won gaining 2/10 of 1%. strength for the korean won. south korea's cost -- not doing much. still at the highest level on record. you are seeing gold falling for a second consecutive session, down 2/10 of 1%. that of course after traders were shaken up by the plunge we saw in the london session of 1.8 million ounces of gold being traded in just one minute. the be more than gold reserve so the goal of finland. that was a who -- huge move we saw in commodity markets. steel, we optimism about supply cuts. we are seeing some closures and china, leading the rally in steel. something to keep an eye on , takata. japan they are expected to trade up any moment. we saw that after filing for bankruptcy, they halted trading. their market cap, look at this. a huge fall of the market cap right now, at 118 million u.s. dollars. after they filed for bankruptcy, they are expected to be de-listed on july 27th if i am not mista