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how is kind of a recipe for you get wages up and this is a recipe for why janet yellen -- it was easier for her to say i'm going to run the economy hot and let labor input recover. it might be tougher for jay powell to do that. david: thank you both very much for being here. you can find all the charts we just used and more by running gt tv on your terminal. coming up, more on the latest development's in the u.s.-china trade war with the u.s.-china business council vice president. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
how is kind of a recipe for you get wages up and this is a recipe for why janet yellen -- it was easier for her to say i'm going to run the economy hot and let labor input recover. it might be tougher for jay powell to do that. david: thank you both very much for being here. you can find all the charts we just used and more by running gt tv on your terminal. coming up, more on the latest development's in the u.s.-china trade war with the u.s.-china business council vice president. live from...
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Jul 17, 2018
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he said you hold the keys. >> i think we can remember a similar line of questioning at janet yellen yellen would spend a lot of time acknowledging the pain that goes along with a stagnant wage economy. but not -- also not give a satisfying answer. you know, powell just said not my area. honestly, we don't have the levers to pull even if we wanted to >> right >> they're a central banker, not a central psychologist >> his point was these problems go back to educational achievement in this country that flattened out in the '70s. a lack of tech investment post-crisis. his words, that's casting a long shadow over wages. >> and they're global. most of these issues are long-term global trends. many people in congress just don't get that either. >> rick, mike, thank you it's noon. dow is up 30 let's get to the half. >>> thank you very much, carl. welcome to "the half time report." we begin with fed chair jay powell delivering his semi-annual testimony before the senate banking committee the fed chair saying growth in the second quarter considerably stronger than in q1. that inflation will remain n
he said you hold the keys. >> i think we can remember a similar line of questioning at janet yellen yellen would spend a lot of time acknowledging the pain that goes along with a stagnant wage economy. but not -- also not give a satisfying answer. you know, powell just said not my area. honestly, we don't have the levers to pull even if we wanted to >> right >> they're a central banker, not a central psychologist >> his point was these problems go back to educational...
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Jul 5, 2018
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. >> it was something janet yellen put in as a monetary policy indicator at her first press conference in 2014. she wanted to see rage -- wage increases at 3-4%. one of the difficult to explain things, we have had a slowdown in productivity growth. if you have slow productivity growth it is hard to get fast wage increases. that is going to squeeze profits or result in higher prices. the labor market has tightened. wage increases are going up slowly but actually for the economy as a whole it is good wage increases are not going up too quickly. to raise force the fed rates at a faster pace and that is something i don't think the fed wants to do right now. vonnie: we are seeing a lot of turnover as well. what does that mean? do we know yet? rate is reasonably high. marketsee a tight labor and they're willing to change jobs. in the insured unemployment rate which has been a record low of 1.2%. very low unemployment. we also see companies are reluctant to let go of labor claims around 225,000. a record low share of the labor force. there are plenty of jobs. we know there were more jobs need
. >> it was something janet yellen put in as a monetary policy indicator at her first press conference in 2014. she wanted to see rage -- wage increases at 3-4%. one of the difficult to explain things, we have had a slowdown in productivity growth. if you have slow productivity growth it is hard to get fast wage increases. that is going to squeeze profits or result in higher prices. the labor market has tightened. wage increases are going up slowly but actually for the economy as a whole...
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Jul 19, 2018
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or replace ing her that liked janet yellen and had a lot of respect for she is a low interest rate person i like low interest rates. he said that before. and the key is whether this is a one off or a consistent message presented. if it's one off especially with the qualification that's really the. >> do you think it's a one-off thing. >> i mean once he sees the. >> i don't. >> who can know. >> as i said the president has shown enormous dplin on this in december he easily could have said i told you so because it was exactly his narrative. they were waiting until he got elected to raise rates any did exactly what he had said -- you know from his perspective they were going to do which he had been critical of and he remained silent. >> professor we got to go we have breaking news here thank you. >> thank you. >> randy kroszner. >> the white house weighing in on the president's comments eamon javers with the details. >> the white house putting out a statement in the past couple minutes about the president's interview earlier today with cnbc, particularly that sound bite that we played at the
or replace ing her that liked janet yellen and had a lot of respect for she is a low interest rate person i like low interest rates. he said that before. and the key is whether this is a one off or a consistent message presented. if it's one off especially with the qualification that's really the. >> do you think it's a one-off thing. >> i mean once he sees the. >> i don't. >> who can know. >> as i said the president has shown enormous dplin on this in december he...
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Jul 17, 2018
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as late as december, janet yellen in her last press conference dismissed it, then in the last minutes we got from them you saw clearly now there are several members starting to worry about it he may change the tone ever so slightly but i suspect that it's going to be certainly not a clear message. >> you mentioned janet yellen's last press conference. i think it was the last question she answered a distinction between correlation and causation. do you think that this idea, you go back over the last 50, 60 years, you look at that flattening yield curve, that inversion as a canary in the coal mine? do you buy this idea that this time around it's not a useful anticipatory tool? >> i don't if you -- since 1960, it has seven out of eight times of the recessions we've had an inversion before it doesn't mean the inversion of the curve triggers recession that could be a third element that sort of drives two things at the same time when you get that degree of correlation or coincidence, you have to sit up and watch that said, of course the term is low, things are going on with the balance shee
as late as december, janet yellen in her last press conference dismissed it, then in the last minutes we got from them you saw clearly now there are several members starting to worry about it he may change the tone ever so slightly but i suspect that it's going to be certainly not a clear message. >> you mentioned janet yellen's last press conference. i think it was the last question she answered a distinction between correlation and causation. do you think that this idea, you go back...
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Jul 20, 2018
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he talked about interest rates and former fed chair janet yellen back when he was out on the campaign trail. >> janet yellen is highly political and she's not raising rates for a specific reason because obama told her not to. >> she's keeping them artificially low to get obama retired. watch what's going to happen. it's a very serious problem. i think it's very political. i think she's very political. and to a certain extent, she should be ashamed of herself. i used to hope that the fed was independent and the fed is obviously not independent. it's obviously not even close to being independent. >> the fed declined to comment on the president's breach of protocol today. former dallas fed president richard fisher did weigh in telling cnbc "no president should interfere with the workings of the fed. were i chairman powell, i would ignore the president and do my job, and i am confident he will do just that." coming up, the one word in the middle of a speech the president was giving today that received special attention when we come back. >>> last thing before we go tonight, is something t
he talked about interest rates and former fed chair janet yellen back when he was out on the campaign trail. >> janet yellen is highly political and she's not raising rates for a specific reason because obama told her not to. >> she's keeping them artificially low to get obama retired. watch what's going to happen. it's a very serious problem. i think it's very political. i think she's very political. and to a certain extent, she should be ashamed of herself. i used to hope that the...
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Jul 19, 2018
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the first time that donald trump has criticized the fed or the fed chairperson you remember back janet yellen in 2016 during the campaign, the president was very, very critical of her, suggesting that she should be ashamed of herself for keeping interest rates so low in order to help barack obama during a presidential year help his story on the economy. this is not a man, donald trump, whether president trump or donald trump shy about airing his views and it's not something that we've seen other presidents do recently and it's not something that this president has shied away from at all we'll see the full tape of the full interview tomorrow on squawk box at 6:00 a.m >> eamon javers at the white house for us let's get a check of the white house reaction because initially we did see a market reaction the dow dropping more than 130 point, closing near the lows of the session and the reaction was really seen in the u.s. dollar before recovering some of those losses so the question here, we know about the trade war, of course we are back to see a trough-led war on the fed what could that mean for
the first time that donald trump has criticized the fed or the fed chairperson you remember back janet yellen in 2016 during the campaign, the president was very, very critical of her, suggesting that she should be ashamed of herself for keeping interest rates so low in order to help barack obama during a presidential year help his story on the economy. this is not a man, donald trump, whether president trump or donald trump shy about airing his views and it's not something that we've seen...
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criticized fat criticize the fed all the time you might remember he said to the former chair at janet yellen that she should be ashamed of her low interest rate policy but of course being president is a very different situation and it's highly unconventional to see a u.s. president make this kind of comment and economists warn that it can undermine confidence in the markets they would generally recommend against saying anything to this effect and the concern here is that comments like what we've just heard trump make this week are that he would be undermining the independence of key institutions in the united states clearly this is a president who has looked so perhaps he hasn't looked to the presidential playbook and said i just go in he's away because everywhere he looks he's just making up new rules he goes about making up new conventions as he goes along. yes well we see that all the time not just when it comes to economic policy and in this instance i think perhaps we're seeing it at this particular moment as a kind of distraction from the very terrible week that trump has had in other
criticized fat criticize the fed all the time you might remember he said to the former chair at janet yellen that she should be ashamed of her low interest rate policy but of course being president is a very different situation and it's highly unconventional to see a u.s. president make this kind of comment and economists warn that it can undermine confidence in the markets they would generally recommend against saying anything to this effect and the concern here is that comments like what...
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Jul 6, 2018
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how is kind of a recipe for you get wages up and this is a recipe for why janet yellen -- it was easier for her to say i'm going to run the economy hot and let labor input recover. it might be tougher for jay powell to do that. david: thank you both very much for being here. you can find all the charts we just used and more by running gt tv on your terminal. coming up, more on the latest development's in the u.s.-china trade war with the u.s.-china business council vice president. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ david: the united states went ahead with its tariffs on imports from china as promised and that was at midnight washington time. china responded immediately with similar tariffs of its own on u.s. goods. the chinese ago premier spoke in sofia, bulgaria, saying, "china will never start a trade war but will take measures in response to others." we welcome now our colleague from beijing, m emma o'brien. was this essentially priced and from the chinese point of view that they knew this was coming? see from the market reaction that even beyond china that this was pretty
how is kind of a recipe for you get wages up and this is a recipe for why janet yellen -- it was easier for her to say i'm going to run the economy hot and let labor input recover. it might be tougher for jay powell to do that. david: thank you both very much for being here. you can find all the charts we just used and more by running gt tv on your terminal. coming up, more on the latest development's in the u.s.-china trade war with the u.s.-china business council vice president. live from...
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Jul 14, 2018
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janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy. economy on the back of fiscal policy. but i'm not against it. but the big thing for me is that fiscal policy be ready, politically as well as economically, be used in the next economic downturn. as i look out longer-term, the biggest risk i see to the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy alone, because the consequences of having done this last time are not good. it has polarized our society. ♪ minor, the cio of guggenheim's investment division, says he believes the next recession is coming within the two years. is that what your time is? >> i think it could be sooner. what you see the fed doing now is tightening monetary conditions, and in the postwar , the stat is something like six out of the last eight tightening cycles have been followed within the 18 months of a recession and lowdown, because money supply is constrained, it has an impact on the real economy. moreover, i think the uncertainty created by the issident's tariff initia
janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy. economy on the back of fiscal policy. but i'm not against it. but the big thing for me is that fiscal policy be ready, politically as well as economically, be used in the next economic downturn. as i look out longer-term, the biggest risk i see to the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy alone, because the consequences of having done this last time are not good. it has polarized...
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is ank jay powell different kind of -- he's not bernanke and he's not janet yellen.e's easy to understand. i'm pretty comfortable he knows what the risks are out here. they are not going to move to shut this thing down. not going to hike too much. i don't think they're going make a mistake this year but certainly as what happens in many cycles, eventually the fed will make a mistake hike rates too much. year.t think it's this haidi: we spent great deal of time worrying about trade tensions. we looking atng tariffs's saying that only coming in list of concerns calls.in conference much more of higher is really the dollar. of given we had this leg up in the trading session, is this an indication that this is the next kind of bit of strength that we about?be concerned is it just a short term? >> when you look at the dollar, you look at the dollar index the euro, for at me if dollar yen went higher, that wouldn't surprise me. overall, i think the dollars will top in here. it's made pretty good run quickly. a top inng to find here. for us, as far as where we think the doll
is ank jay powell different kind of -- he's not bernanke and he's not janet yellen.e's easy to understand. i'm pretty comfortable he knows what the risks are out here. they are not going to move to shut this thing down. not going to hike too much. i don't think they're going make a mistake this year but certainly as what happens in many cycles, eventually the fed will make a mistake hike rates too much. year.t think it's this haidi: we spent great deal of time worrying about trade tensions. we...
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these quits feature on janet yellen's dashboard.hing is a better harbinger of higher wages than people feeling their boss to take this job and shove it. financials looked horrible today. the xlx is down from its january 26 high. that's when he went to davos and threw down the gauntlet on the global elite establishment. at some point it will make a deesive break. i don't know what direction. but if it doesn't go up, it's in danger of big collapse on its support. quarterly earnings. all of these things are down this year. city bank is down 8%. wells fargo is off almost 7%. financials are expected to see revenues up 4.5%. so there are big hopes overall for earnings. we had a monster first quarter. wall street look for lightning to strike again. you can see what we got in the first quarter. it all begins friday. i will say three days ago, i'm excited but i have got to tell you, there have been so few earnings warnings, that's a great sign going into friday. at the end of the day it's about forward guidance. we are going to leave it ther
these quits feature on janet yellen's dashboard.hing is a better harbinger of higher wages than people feeling their boss to take this job and shove it. financials looked horrible today. the xlx is down from its january 26 high. that's when he went to davos and threw down the gauntlet on the global elite establishment. at some point it will make a deesive break. i don't know what direction. but if it doesn't go up, it's in danger of big collapse on its support. quarterly earnings. all of these...
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Jul 20, 2018
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when janet yellen raised the rates the first time i thought she was doing that to show the world she couldn't be pushed around. the result was a crash in the market. wall street responded. we have seen this push-pull with wall street and the fed. now the president wants to get into the mix. >> you see the fed is always getting pressure different interest groups and certainly the president doesn't want a different standard for republican administrations than democratic administrations. he wants to make sure he's treated fairly, and he's one to assert his fair treatment. >> the american people being treated fairly. everybody gets worried about the banks failing. and being beneficial to them. what about being beneficial to the american people? that's the reason trump got elected. i can guarantee you most of people in middle america, finally somebody is saying can we call them out on this behavior? >> we had a pretty good session today. at one point the futures are down, and the hysteria. the commentators, any time president trump does anything, i feel like they are trying to talk us dow
when janet yellen raised the rates the first time i thought she was doing that to show the world she couldn't be pushed around. the result was a crash in the market. wall street responded. we have seen this push-pull with wall street and the fed. now the president wants to get into the mix. >> you see the fed is always getting pressure different interest groups and certainly the president doesn't want a different standard for republican administrations than democratic administrations. he...
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to start getting nervous about the future recession >> i want to see jay powell point back to janet yellen td rates, she drew first blood. have a great day appreciate it. >> you, too. >> president trump will head to europe next week for a nato summit ahead of that gathering hadley gamble was able to catch up with the nato secretary-general this morning in a first on cnbc interview. it's a big one hadley, what did you learn >> as you know we have had no shortage of tough talk for president trump when it comes to nate so allies he says the united states will no longer be the world's biggie tank bank and that ally also have to pay their fair share when it comes to defense spending or else i had a chance to catch up with the nato secretary-general and asked how this will play out especially against this back drop of europe peep tariff an ta trade war. >> you're right there are some real disagreements on issues like trade, but also on climate change and the iran nuclear deal these are serious disagreements. at the same time there's been disagreements between nato allies before. the strength of
to start getting nervous about the future recession >> i want to see jay powell point back to janet yellen td rates, she drew first blood. have a great day appreciate it. >> you, too. >> president trump will head to europe next week for a nato summit ahead of that gathering hadley gamble was able to catch up with the nato secretary-general this morning in a first on cnbc interview. it's a big one hadley, what did you learn >> as you know we have had no shortage of tough...
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janet yellen brought up in her last press conference that based on yesterday's testimony, where do you that? >> i think he stands on outsourcing the issue of what is a neutral rate to the market a child spread in the 20, 30, 40 basis point range for twos and tens is normal for this stage of the cycle. you can go back to the '90s and '80s and before that what stands out is not the flatness of the curve but how long the fed needed to keep the yield curve so steeply positive to reliquefy the banking system now we're at a point where this will trend here for a while. then the fed will go a step too far, the curve will revert, recession will come six, eight months later, but he's happy to watch the curve. when he sees the curve getting too flat, that will be the signal to him. >> we have to leave it there thank you very much for your time. that's it for today's show i'm willem marx. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. - i love my grandma. - anncr: as you grow older, your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep
janet yellen brought up in her last press conference that based on yesterday's testimony, where do you that? >> i think he stands on outsourcing the issue of what is a neutral rate to the market a child spread in the 20, 30, 40 basis point range for twos and tens is normal for this stage of the cycle. you can go back to the '90s and '80s and before that what stands out is not the flatness of the curve but how long the fed needed to keep the yield curve so steeply positive to reliquefy the...
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to remind our audience when president obama was in office he regularly attacked then fed chair janet yellentificially keeping interest rates low to serve president obama, and keep the economy humming. >> now he's president. >> now he's asking his fed chair to do the same thing. we really to focus on the fact that wages are down. the bls numbers from june 2018 are down. these are the most vulnerable workers. while the tax cuts is lined the pockets of ceos and executives in corporate america and shareholders in the buybacks, those who need it most are getting lower. >> i run into people, well, the tax cuts are working. sure, for some people. they're working really, really well. exactly the people we sat here for months telling people they were going to work for. they're not working for the forgotten american who thought that donald trump was going to get them a better deal. that's worth remembering. >> not yet. >> for the first time ever a top secret fisa warrant has been made public. we'll look at the document related to the fbi's wiretapping of carter page. we'll describe how carter page fi
to remind our audience when president obama was in office he regularly attacked then fed chair janet yellentificially keeping interest rates low to serve president obama, and keep the economy humming. >> now he's president. >> now he's asking his fed chair to do the same thing. we really to focus on the fact that wages are down. the bls numbers from june 2018 are down. these are the most vulnerable workers. while the tax cuts is lined the pockets of ceos and executives in corporate...
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during one of her final appearances in front of congress, i spoke with janet yellen about the opioid epidemic and its connection to not just economictcomes but unemployment outcomes. the impact of opioids on the labor participation rate, which has declined over the last decade, she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys many prime age individuals were not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. i look at these people we have , the next doctors, the next electricians, the next nurses, what do you see as the impact of the opioid epidemic on our workforce participation and economy? chair powell: it is a terrible families and for individuals involved, and from an economic standpoint, some high percentage of the primates force,not in the labor particularly primates males are taking painkillers of some kind. i think the number that alan krueger is a professor who came up with 44% of them, so it is a big number and having a terrible human toll on our communities and it matters a lot from the labor force per dissipation >> and economic activ
during one of her final appearances in front of congress, i spoke with janet yellen about the opioid epidemic and its connection to not just economictcomes but unemployment outcomes. the impact of opioids on the labor participation rate, which has declined over the last decade, she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys many prime age individuals were not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. i look at these people we have , the next doctors,...
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Jul 12, 2018
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janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy.n the back of fiscal policy, but i'm not against it. the big thing for me is that fiscal policy be ready politically, as well as economically be used in the next economic downturn. as i look out longer-term, the biggest risk i see to the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy alone. those of the consequences of having done it last-minute, and they are not good. mike: we have about 30 seconds left read you heard both sides on trade and tariffs. the worry about where we are? [sigh] i don't think it is a productive game for the united states to be engaged in. i wish mr. trump was not doing this, that at the same time, i do not think the consequences are going to be a disaster. , thinkaul mcculley you so much for joining us. back to you in new york. thank you to mike and paul mcculley. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: "what'd you miss?" rallying u.s. stocks led by tech names. jpmorgan and citigroup kickoff earnings. julie: we will see if they ca
janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy.n the back of fiscal policy, but i'm not against it. the big thing for me is that fiscal policy be ready politically, as well as economically be used in the next economic downturn. as i look out longer-term, the biggest risk i see to the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy alone. those of the consequences of having done it last-minute, and they are not good. mike: we have about 30...
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donald trump basically fires janet yellen, the most dovish fed chair in our lifetime.t is what he wants. he fired her. julie: i'm so glad great got that point. lisa: there are interesting aspects. the most interesting, markets just don't seem to be moving just yet. .hank you so much, greg we always appreciate your insights. coming up, a warning shot at bank stock. -- advising investors to ditch the big tech names. this is bloomberg. ♪ julie: too much love for tech. warning toout a investors to exit facebook, apple, amazon, netflix and google. the so-called faang. is there something there this time? some charts with us ahead of a busy earnings week. earnings, there doesn't seem to be a lot of concern. >> one thing i would like to pull up is these threads between the implied volatility versus calls. we have is the top panel. alphabet.ebook, those are subdued slightly. the skew on qqq q is elevated. it is like strategists are saying there might be some danger in tech but certainly not the stocks i know and love. lisa: nobody wants to admit there is actually danger. you ca
donald trump basically fires janet yellen, the most dovish fed chair in our lifetime.t is what he wants. he fired her. julie: i'm so glad great got that point. lisa: there are interesting aspects. the most interesting, markets just don't seem to be moving just yet. .hank you so much, greg we always appreciate your insights. coming up, a warning shot at bank stock. -- advising investors to ditch the big tech names. this is bloomberg. ♪ julie: too much love for tech. warning toout a investors...
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Jul 18, 2018
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dodd-frank, janet yellen's balance sheet and obama tax policies were enforced until the beginning of this year. in fact, the fed policies and the securities regulation remain pretty much unchanged since the obama administration. the chairman of this committee urges you to abandon all of the unconventional tools, while taking credit for the good economy that is in part a result of your unconventional tools. i would say keep your balance sheet as big as it was when we achieved the economic growth that is so good the democrats and republicans are fighting ver who gets credit. and certainly, do not cut your balance sheet until the chairman tells you how he's going increase taxes to replace the $80 billion of profit you gave us last year because you had a big balance sheet. the chair talks about the inflation rate, chair of the committee, you ought to have a oal of 2.5%, not 2%. the law draws a 3% objective or maximum for inflation and for unemployment. so unemployment is still too low, and inflation is still too low, and if we have a losser economic policy, maybe we'll get somewhat highe
dodd-frank, janet yellen's balance sheet and obama tax policies were enforced until the beginning of this year. in fact, the fed policies and the securities regulation remain pretty much unchanged since the obama administration. the chairman of this committee urges you to abandon all of the unconventional tools, while taking credit for the good economy that is in part a result of your unconventional tools. i would say keep your balance sheet as big as it was when we achieved the economic growth...
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Jul 13, 2018
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janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy.g a hot economy on the back of fiscal policy. so i am not against it, but the big thing for me is that fiscal politically ready as well as economically to be used in the next economic downturn, i think if we look out longer-term, the biggest risk i the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy and loans. that was former pimco chief economist at current cornell loss will professor paul mcauley at the rocky mountain summit with mike mckee. time for a snapshot of some of the biggest business stories in the news today. blackrock intruders are frontrunners to oversee about 120 billion dollars to lloyd's. no comment yet, but bloomberg has learned that a decision from lloyds could come in the third quarter. a single winner could be selected, or employees could split the mandate. invited good for the contract after ending a partnership with standard life aberdeen. and johnson & johnson will appeal a multimillion dollar verdict. a jury in st. louis o
janet yellen talked about the benefits of running a hot economy.g a hot economy on the back of fiscal policy. so i am not against it, but the big thing for me is that fiscal politically ready as well as economically to be used in the next economic downturn, i think if we look out longer-term, the biggest risk i the fabric of our democracy is if we have to fight the next recession with monetary policy and loans. that was former pimco chief economist at current cornell loss will professor paul...
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Jul 17, 2018
07/18
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janet yellen's fed have aired in the side of caution? r ae known really long time since the early 1990's. she would be looking at the data and being cautious. remember in 2008, in the spring of 2008, oil prices were rising, inflation was at 5%. she would be much more cautious. the danger clearly is why not wait and watch? i think she would have been more cautious. i think we pay a price for powell not being an economist and probably being ruled by the same staff that did not see the recession in 2008. i think the abstinent -- absence of governors on the fed, now being dominated by the bank president, we do not have enough people or put appointments to fill. it is being pushed to a hawkish dallas, in touch with reality. --l we need people to understand, why are they -- why are they raising rates? hard to say? >> thank you so much, during your holiday. now go back and have fun. thank you so much. coming to us from vermont. coming up, amazon, more on whether they -- it is ready to move ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ john: i am jon erlichman i
janet yellen's fed have aired in the side of caution? r ae known really long time since the early 1990's. she would be looking at the data and being cautious. remember in 2008, in the spring of 2008, oil prices were rising, inflation was at 5%. she would be much more cautious. the danger clearly is why not wait and watch? i think she would have been more cautious. i think we pay a price for powell not being an economist and probably being ruled by the same staff that did not see the recession...
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Jul 18, 2018
07/18
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ben bernanke and janet yellen had more severe situations. can identify where they were when things got rough. alix: let's talk about ben bernanke. there was an interesting chat yesterday, ben bernanke, tim geithner, and hank paulson. has some ben bernanke concern on the next financial crisis. geithner are had more constraints in a heavy crisis. i'm struck by that. we are talking about the today hikes. the issue is where you are around neutral when the next crisis hits. fed coal is to get rates as high as they can while they can. historically we have seen the fed cup 500 basis points when a recession comes. we are at 200 now. you can't cut more than that. they would like to get as much wiggle room as possible. the argument was made yesterday that we don't need to cut as far because this is a lower interest rate environment. in the financial crisis, they had to be creative near see you -- near zero. they are not thinking this will solve all of our problems. alix: i'm glad you mentioned that. jason: a lot of the talk among these veterans was ar
ben bernanke and janet yellen had more severe situations. can identify where they were when things got rough. alix: let's talk about ben bernanke. there was an interesting chat yesterday, ben bernanke, tim geithner, and hank paulson. has some ben bernanke concern on the next financial crisis. geithner are had more constraints in a heavy crisis. i'm struck by that. we are talking about the today hikes. the issue is where you are around neutral when the next crisis hits. fed coal is to get rates...
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Jul 16, 2018
07/18
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one piece says the janet yellen fed would hold on september. what do you think?ore color after tomorrow from the fed with the testimony. we do think they are on track and also recently giving that signal, even though it was just sort of a small change, but given that signal that every quarter is due for a hike, it would also be strange. tiedhave understandably the risk of trade to the downside on the u.s. economy. we do not think at this point it is a enough to justify backtracking from it. we think they are on track for the next to hikes. yvonne: how important is the chinese gdp today? a chart here shows the split outlooks we are seeing when it comes to the economy. versus what we are seeing in the shanghai composite, heading to a bear market. have we seen the worst of the chinese equities selloff? it seems like there are signs of resilience when it comes to the headline number. what should we be looking out for? >> what i do think we should look for, gdp overall, but certainly as one component, the exports. exports are not week in that sense, but they have peak
one piece says the janet yellen fed would hold on september. what do you think?ore color after tomorrow from the fed with the testimony. we do think they are on track and also recently giving that signal, even though it was just sort of a small change, but given that signal that every quarter is due for a hike, it would also be strange. tiedhave understandably the risk of trade to the downside on the u.s. economy. we do not think at this point it is a enough to justify backtracking from it. we...
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Jul 13, 2018
07/18
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so when the former chairperson, janet yellen, was trying to lift rates off of the zero lower bound, thereere some fits and starts, the market was not ready when she tried it in 2015 and early 2016. and maybe a year or two years from now it will be a similarly challenging scenario, because by that point the fed will be moderately tight and wanting to go, or wondering how to get more restrictive from their, but right now we are in this zone where if you look at the fed 7/8,y rate it is one and the natural rate is probably around 2.5 on a nominal level, so the fed has gone from super accommodative to basically neutral and of the economy is doing extremely well. the growth rates peaked earlier, but staying at a high level in earnings growing 24% in q1, and expected to grow 22% in q2. and earnings season is beginning. we are in a situation where things are really humming along. and until we get further into the cycle, i think that this is kind of steady as she goes. we are in that twilight zone between mid-and late and a year from now it will be a different story, because men earnings growth w
so when the former chairperson, janet yellen, was trying to lift rates off of the zero lower bound, thereere some fits and starts, the market was not ready when she tried it in 2015 and early 2016. and maybe a year or two years from now it will be a similarly challenging scenario, because by that point the fed will be moderately tight and wanting to go, or wondering how to get more restrictive from their, but right now we are in this zone where if you look at the fed 7/8,y rate it is one and...
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Jul 10, 2018
07/18
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janet yellen one said she is going to let the economy run hot.hink jerome powell essentially said inflation is going to go around the 2% target in a medium-term and it only becomes an issue if it is persistently above 2%. i think they have plenty of room to let it go hot because they fed does not want to cause the next recession. alix: it also comes in terms of trade and there was a note out of the bloomberg talking about television sets and those prices came way down as trade barriers were removed. neil: i think over time, the feedthrough is potentially quite material. one of the issues between the u.s. and china is everything that president trump can tariff is everything we buy. he can even force up the price because the entire consumer supply chain touches china one way or the other. i was in beijing in june. i think the attack or focus was a shock to the chinese. forink they will be going the operating systems and we will suddenly have two competing it ecosystems. companies will have to choose. do you have it made for sale in the u.s. and the
janet yellen one said she is going to let the economy run hot.hink jerome powell essentially said inflation is going to go around the 2% target in a medium-term and it only becomes an issue if it is persistently above 2%. i think they have plenty of room to let it go hot because they fed does not want to cause the next recession. alix: it also comes in terms of trade and there was a note out of the bloomberg talking about television sets and those prices came way down as trade barriers were...
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Jul 20, 2018
07/18
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. >> i'm thinking janet yellen ben bern naeng allen green span is also a former fed chairman who could up you might expect them to speak at some point. i think powell wants to stay out of this if he can. i think increasingly it's becoming difficult for them to do it. i think the reaction of the federal reserve is one where they keep going and stick to their knitting in terms of their intentions for this year right now that december rate hike has now become a political litmus test for the federal reserve. >> yes. >> and what's really interesting is president trump may have made that second rate hike more likely now because the federal reserve. >> that was your point. >> the federal reserve might have to do this. >> to prove. >> to prove independence. >> can we just highlight now crossing the wires u.s. dollar index slipping to four-day low after cnbc reports the president is worried that fed will raise rates twice this year. >> trump he likes. >> he is getting what he wants four-day low by the way is basically one-year low for all intents and purposes but gym, a goo good point. the more
. >> i'm thinking janet yellen ben bern naeng allen green span is also a former fed chairman who could up you might expect them to speak at some point. i think powell wants to stay out of this if he can. i think increasingly it's becoming difficult for them to do it. i think the reaction of the federal reserve is one where they keep going and stick to their knitting in terms of their intentions for this year right now that december rate hike has now become a political litmus test for the...
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Jul 20, 2018
07/18
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last summer during one of her final appearances before congress, i spoke with former chair janet yellen about the opioid epidemic. the impact of opioids on the labor participation rate, which has declined from 66% to 63% over the last decade. she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys suggest that many prime age individuals who are not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. i look i look at these people we've lost, the next doctors, the next electricia electricians, the next nurses. what do you see as the impact of the opioid epidemic? >> it's a tragedy for the individuals and their families involved. i think the number that ellen krueger came up with 44% of them. it's a big number. it's having a terrible human toll on our communities. it matters a lot for labor force economic and participation. >> thank you. >> that concludes the questioning. >> 30 seconds. >> a number have talked about pay. pay has gone up 2.7%. from june to june -- it's important to recognize that cpi has gone up 3%. we should never talk about nominal pay. we should
last summer during one of her final appearances before congress, i spoke with former chair janet yellen about the opioid epidemic. the impact of opioids on the labor participation rate, which has declined from 66% to 63% over the last decade. she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys suggest that many prime age individuals who are not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. i look i look at these people we've lost, the next doctors, the next...
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Jul 17, 2018
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last summer during one of her final appearances before congress, i spoke with former chair janet yellen about the opioid epidemic not just to health outcomes but employment outcomes. the labor participation rate, which has declined from 66 to 63% over the last decade. she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys suggest that many prime age individuals who are not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. you know, i look at these people we've lost, the next doctors, the next electricians, the next nurses. what do you see as the impact of the opioid epidemic on our work force participation, and in general, the economy? >> it's a terrible human tragedy for many communities, certainly for the individuals and their families involved. i think from an economic standpoint, some high percentage of prime age people who are not in the labor force, particularly prime age males who are not in the labor force, are taking painkillers of some kind. i think the number that alan krueger, who is a professor, came up with 44% of them. so it's a big number. it
last summer during one of her final appearances before congress, i spoke with former chair janet yellen about the opioid epidemic not just to health outcomes but employment outcomes. the labor participation rate, which has declined from 66 to 63% over the last decade. she agreed there was a connection and noted surveys suggest that many prime age individuals who are not actively participating in the labor market are involved in prescription drug use. you know, i look at these people we've lost,...
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Jul 25, 2018
07/18
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in fact, former federal reserve chair janet yellen, the only woman to hold this position in the reserve's 100-year history, has said that our country's economic growth in the last half-century was in large part due to women joining the labor force and that to continue the growth we have seen, we will need to do more to ensure more women have a level playing field in the workplace and society as a whole. but the progress women have made and the prospect of future progress today truly hangs in the balance. today i want to emphasize how real this threat is and paint a picture of how much more unequal life would be for women in the united states of america should judge kavanaugh be confirmed, and add a fifth vote on the supreme court for overturning roe v. wade and roll back reproductive rights women have had for more than four decades. let me say again the threat to women's reproductive rights is frighteningly real. it is real because unless democrats and republicans come together, president trump will follow through on his promise to overturn roe. on the campaign trail, candidate trump assu
in fact, former federal reserve chair janet yellen, the only woman to hold this position in the reserve's 100-year history, has said that our country's economic growth in the last half-century was in large part due to women joining the labor force and that to continue the growth we have seen, we will need to do more to ensure more women have a level playing field in the workplace and society as a whole. but the progress women have made and the prospect of future progress today truly hangs in...
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Jul 20, 2018
07/18
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FBC
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. >> president also opened himself to up attack by critics whenever he criticized janet yellen for arest rates are going up corporations are going to face a big -- >> i just want to -- >> because that leads to better pushing power for americans. >> but 1 wffled on that. >> the it will exert independence, the people onboard so far three nominations president has need to get approved makes him more strident if you want them to back off don't tell them to do that again, asserting independence they will continue raising interest rates, we will be right back. ♪ ♪ dancing ♪ like the american red cross, and our nation's veterans. we knew helping our communities was important then. and we know it's even more important today. so we're stepping up to volunteer more and donate over a million dollars every day. so our communities can be even stronger. it's a new day at wells fargo. but it's a lot like our first day. prediabetes?! i don't have time to eat right or exercise. i'm a busy mom! oh, you're a busy mom? yeah. this is great news! busy moms never get prediabetes. wait, what? let me just...
. >> president also opened himself to up attack by critics whenever he criticized janet yellen for arest rates are going up corporations are going to face a big -- >> i just want to -- >> because that leads to better pushing power for americans. >> but 1 wffled on that. >> the it will exert independence, the people onboard so far three nominations president has need to get approved makes him more strident if you want them to back off don't tell them to do that...
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Jul 17, 2018
07/18
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by contrast former fed chairman janet yellen that with just three lawmakers during her first four monthse central bank leader the story talks about what's going to be happening this week on capitol hill as that testimony gets underway today and expected to continue tomorrow as well. in a couple minutes on the washington journal we will talk baseball. the major-league all-star game taking place in washington dc today and we will be having conversation about the connection between presidents and based over the years for that discussion. until then, your phone calls. and he is in madisonville, kentucky. good morning. i feel like -- i'm a democrat and everything. i feel like yesterday i think .rump gone wrong have theke russia overhand and i know a long time ago russia said they would take over the world and do it through the mind of the young people without firing a shot. they're doing that through the drugs. i think russia was involved with 2016 election. to me i think we need to be praying for president and country because our country is divided right now. i think trump handle the wrong.
by contrast former fed chairman janet yellen that with just three lawmakers during her first four monthse central bank leader the story talks about what's going to be happening this week on capitol hill as that testimony gets underway today and expected to continue tomorrow as well. in a couple minutes on the washington journal we will talk baseball. the major-league all-star game taking place in washington dc today and we will be having conversation about the connection between presidents and...
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Jul 18, 2018
07/18
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dodd/frank, janet yellen's balance sheet and president obama's tax rules were in force until this year. in fact, the fed policies and the securities regulation remain pretty much unchanged since the obama administration. the chairman of this committee urges you to abandon all of the unconventional tools while taking credit for the good economy that is, in part, a result of your unconventional tools. i would say keep your balance sheet as big as it was when we achieved the economic growth that is so good that democrats and republicans are fighting over who gets credit. and certainly do not cut your balance sheet until chairman hensarling tells you how he's going to increase taxes to replace the $80 billion of profit you gave us last year because you had a big balance sheet. the chair talks about the inflation rate, chair of this committee. you also to have a goal of 2.5%, not 2%. the law that we passed in 1978 draws a 3% objective or maximum for inflation and for unemployment so unemployment is still too high, inflation is too low. if we have a looser economic policy, maybe we'll get so
dodd/frank, janet yellen's balance sheet and president obama's tax rules were in force until this year. in fact, the fed policies and the securities regulation remain pretty much unchanged since the obama administration. the chairman of this committee urges you to abandon all of the unconventional tools while taking credit for the good economy that is, in part, a result of your unconventional tools. i would say keep your balance sheet as big as it was when we achieved the economic growth that...