janet yellen obviously very well known. the fed for the research he's done. mary dale has had a lot of experience. she also did some work for yellen was there. obviously she's stepping into everybody oes but thinks she can fill them. >> talk about the job market. conundrum,en the big is the lack of wage growth. people are ot of wondering where she'll fall. ou would probably call her a janet yellen dove. her work is focused on whether or not we see income equality in job distributions and whether or not the job market is unctioning as it should, and she has suggested in recent speeches that maybe it's not and the inflation aspect of higher wages when job markets get paid, that relationship has down. so it suggests that she would do things the same way as janet you let the economy run and try to bring as many people into the labor force as don't worry about inflation as much as long as it's not going well over your target. as that debate continues, she's a bit on the doveish side. be there for the be there for the november 8 m

the black hole of debt there and that there would be bigger deflation and yet here we've seen as janet yellen recently suggested that the fed should create future booms right that the fed to deal with any crash they should promise market participants which eighty four percent of stocks in the us are held by the top ten percent but that they should promise market participants a boom and is this a sort of melt up are we seeing an irrational exuberance again are we see is this what the fed wanted is this an engineer and you know you do have amazon you do have apple worth a trillion dollars there are several other heading towards that as well. you know this it looks like a mouth up you see in the chart that that chart looks like a melt up right well i mean a flashing lights is just that the dollar is going down in value but the dollar's been moving up gold to moving down so you know from the classical economics perspective we don't see inflation well we see is financial engineering and. money being printed and given to people who support the politicians who print the money i mean that's that's ei

we heard a lot from janet yellen and haven't heard so much from jerome powell.t is keeping romance in it, kind of refreshing. i don't know that i need to hear from the fed head all the time, adam. >> he is not a academic, trish. mr. powell worked on wall street for 20 years. he ran an investment bank. he understands the subtly what it takeses to get different factions at a table to get transactions completed. as we talked about, there is so much transparency, understandably so in 2008, scared to death what was happening in the economy. we needed someone to hold our hands. the fed did that, did an admirable job. created bids when nobody else was buying. we're healthy and we can get over that. we don't need that kind of hand-holding anymore. trish: constant media attention, felt to me very overdone. >> he does not need the validation of the media in any way, shape or form. he is a big boy. he is really is. he is an adult. he does not have an economic agenda. he is simply truly data dependent. he is going to follow the data. he will not have preconceived notions ab

previous administration with its anti growth high tax redistribution us policies aid and abet it by janet yellen in the federal reserve who kept interest rates artificially low and was very slow to unwind a lot of the extraordinary liquidity measures otherwise known as q e one two and three inside the united states so now central banks are woefully unequipped to deal with that next crisis and because interest rates are still very very low bed that this nobody but surely rising let me just bring it to another possible threats to the global system financial regulation known as the dutch frank act which was put in place following the two thousand and eight crisis is now rolled back under the current administration doesn't that open the door to new let's call it reckless behavior. you know it was rolled back largely for smaller banks inside the united states who really the cost of compliance for dodd frank was prohibitive for smaller of smaller to mid-size banks and basically all that was functionally was a protection scheme for big banks who could afford the compliance the compliance costs involved

the black hole of debt there and that there would be bigger deflation and yet here we've seen as janet yellen recently suggested that the fed should. future booms right that the fed to deal with any crash they should promise market participants which eighty four percent of stocks in the us are held by the top ten percent but that they should promise market participants a boom and is this the sort of melt up are we seeing an irrational exuberance again are we see is this what the fed wanted is this an engineered you know you do have amazon you do have apple worth a trillion dollars there are several other heading towards that as well. you know this looks like a melt up you see in the chart that that chart looks like a melt up right well in a flash and it's just of the dollar is going down in value but the dollar's been moving up.

krishna: janet yellen said the fed should prepare themselves for a rerun of zero rate. that tells you all the policymakers are thinking. today, because of fiscal stimulus, everything looks hunky-dory in the u.s. and will probably grow at a rapid clip. a year from today, two years from today, if that scenario plays out, the fed tightens six times in 2019, expecting u.s. growth to continue at this level is per us -- is preposterous. it cannot sustain itself and the curve would be totally inverted and the dollar would be meaningfully stronger and you have a correction everywhere. in that environment where treasury rallies and rally in a meaningful way. mr. distenfeld: two more times this year. i don't agree with that. policymakers also say the long-term average rate should be about 3%. another six times will take us to a little bit above that. that is not necessarily unsustainable. it might be a problem for the rest of the world. the u.s. could continue to grow even if that kind of level. subadra: that's the fed raises want to twice this year and we go into recession 19, 2

about any flows that you see that are either related to this or other unrelated news including janet yellen the former federal reserve chair. she has come out and written a paper saying the fed should consider, i found this pretty shocking, considering we have such a strong economy, she said the fed should consider lower for longer strategy with interest rates that she said could be used to cut rates to zero because she foresees in a year or two real economic weakness. >> well if she's right, first of all, go to the bank, borrow some money and she thinks in two years we'll have that. this is a great time to capitalize on an idea. i think that no matter when the recession comes the feds going to be blamed for it, and i don't envy the current chairperson, because sooner or later we're going to have the recession kick in, and i guarantee you, both politicians on the left and the right, will be blaming the fed and janet yellen may be right and if she is right, you can certainly put that bet on now two years from now to make quite a bit of money if she's right. liz: true, and we could look at by

headline that might say that we might require helicopters coming soon because of course you know janet yellen the former chad fed chair i was going to chad fed chair woman she recently said that you know that for the next financial crisis that everybody's warning about the next financial crisis coming soon and that the fed should start buying equities actually get it going to the markets and buy a i wanted to cut to the last line because to give you a reason to use that prop and this is from jesse feller he said there have never been so many bonds that are almost junk b.b.b. be my baby and. here's the chart that's near junk this is the financial crisis these are the outstanding corporate debt so you see there's like almost three times as much outstanding corporate debt corporate bonds issued that's almost nine trillion dollars outstanding right now and most of it is this triple b. stuff right here it's all junk it's all a joke it's all going to be bailed out again or new is a helicopter exactly among those who are going to second to go gosh darn it.

headline that might say that we might require helicopters coming soon because of course you know janet yellen the former chad fed chair i was going to chad fed chair woman she recently said that you know that for the next financial crisis that everybody is warning about the next financial crisis coming soon and that the fed should start buying equities actually get it going to the markets and buy a i wanted to cut to the last line because to give you a reason to use that prop and this is from jesse feller he said there have never been so many bonds that are almost junk b.b.b. be my baby and i know you know exactly here's the chart that's near junk this is the financial crisis these are the outstanding corporate debt so you see there's like almost three times as much outstanding corporate debt corporate bonds issued that's almost nine trillion dollars outstanding right now and most of it is this will be stuff right here it's all junk it's all just it's all going to be bailed out again we're going to the helicopter exactly among those who are going to second to go gosh turn to promote a little

previous administration with its anti growth high tax redistribution us policies aided and abetted by janet yellen in the federal reserve who kept interest rates artificially low and was very slow to unwind a lot of the extraordinary liquidity measures otherwise known as q e one two and three inside the united states are now central banks are woefully unequipped to deal with that next crisis because interest rates are still very very low but bad that there's nobody but surely rising let me just bring you to another possible threats to the global system financial regulation known as the don't act which was put in place following the two thousand and eight crisis is now rolled back under the current administration doesn't that open the door to new let's call it reckless behavior. you know it was rolled back largely for smaller banks inside the united states who really the cost of compliance for dodd frank was prohibitive for a smart of for smaller to midsized banks and basically all that was functionally was a protection scheme for big banks who could afford the compliance the compliance costs invol

janet yellen was focused on the. will he be successful? i don't know. what about a downturn, john?t do you take that into account in making investment decisions? john: we try not to get too caught up in the short market bounces that are notable. but we are moving more and more toward a seventh inning. we had an extraordinarily strong recovery. the momentum is still there. but it is inevitable, because as we get higher wage rates, we get higher inflation, higher interest rates. that will ultimately sort of doom the recovery over the next 18-24 months. alix: what is the biggest risk for both of you heading into 2019? randy, go first. itdall: so for me, i think will be some of the instability in the emerging markets. and that could somehow bleed into something like italy, and we are seeing a little bit of evidence of that right now. in argentina, a lot of concern is on the fiscal side. i worry about that sort of ricocheting around the markets, including china because they have a budget problem. david: john, biggest risk going into 2019. john: if rates go higher quicker, that will be t

. >> unlike janet yellen, he has made a concerted effort to go on capitol hill and pound the caucus,s he puts it. he has visited about -- in the first six months, he has visited or spoken to about 45 lawmakers, roughly. that is three times the amount that his predecessor did over the same timeframe. behind this, of course, is our tweeter in chief president trump, who has broken with decades long precedent and take an open, public pot shots at the fed. carol: next week, we have another meeting. the markets are pricing in another rate increase. president trump has been very outspoken about not wanting higher rates. this is a test of his ability, not just as a banker, but a politician, how he manages that. he has stayed out of the spotlight by not reacting to what trump has to say. >> this will be the first inter-rate increase since the president went public with his displeasure. and this will be the first time when powell will be pressed to respond. so how he responds, how he does that, does he dismiss it? does he say the president can do -- can say what he wants, but we will do what c

i think jay powell and company and janet yellen and ben bernanke, hasn't been as bad as it could have in many ways the longer something takes, the more issues you have with outside issues, exogenous forces, different economies, emerging markets, trade issues that can slowly start to take bites out. normalization should have begun awhile ago, we can't go back in time removing accommodation is like putting the patient in the recovery room, but you can't keep them there forever. we need to remove it does it have hidden meaning? i don't think so let's go to the boards all of the price structure, that's an obvious meaning and it tells you things this chart back to 2007. the point is quite clear we had so many key tops before we did the violation of 3% 318, 320, 318. some bottoms, 317. we take out 311, we will at some point is m they're going to make a lot of train stops along the way. the double bottom in 2012 and 2016 is very compelling. the other thing i think we should take note of. after we made our may 311 high close of the year. the yoeest yield close we had was 278. they have to be

you have to give credit to ben bernancke and janet yellen.ar, this is not a bad time to do it. will it add to inflation? maybe. will it detract from growth? maybe. the only wild card is we will talk in the next few weeks, i'm sure, about interest rates going up and whiff of inflation starting to come back into the economy. >> greg makes a point. democrats and republicans, you know, suburban republicans and rural democrats who agree with trump on trade. >> a pervasive feeling that the chinese don't play fair. they steal our stuff and don't open their markets. i think canada is different. i was in toronto yesterday. picking on canada is different. china has a villain. has a lot of support in both parties. >> greg, good to see you. have a great weekend. >> you bet. >>> 39 minutes past the hour. it appears president trump may not release the documents related to the russia investigation at the urging of the close allies. this is days after the immediate directive. including the application for surveillance on former trump adviser carter page. her

janet yellen would say three years. that's just wrong.t's wrong if you get the good things happening, but it will be dead wrong wrong. i'm not going -- let me not pull a punch here, wrong. >> david tepper never pulls punches and hopefully he won't tomorrow when we sit down with him exclusively out in pittsburgh 12:00 p.m it's an exclusive. it's a great time, jim, to spend some time with tepper. >> i love tepper >> what the markets have done since we last heard from him publicly it's an extended interview >> the dance he did at the panthers game? >> everything. >> well, look -- >> he's a great investor, he has dance moves. >> of course he raised our taxes by leaving jersey. >> we need more fantasy points out of cam for sure. >> that was a terrible game. just a terrible game the team they beat are the skins. i can't believe it >> i believe it. >> i want to know how david feels about taking a big swing at some group. he takes a big swing at bank of america and it was 50% lower which is the group he's taking the big swing at i want to know wh

before we begin, i like to welcome andrew, the janet yellen professor of finance and management at the yell school of management and the director of their financial stability ofgram -- yale school management and the director of their financial stability program. morning.ood you are here to see what is the main event to catalog and explain the actions taken during the financial crisis by the official sector in the u.s. these actions were taken by these three individuals. while we can argue and discuss, and we will whether any of the specific things they did were good or bad or worked or didn't work, what is not in dispute is the extraordinary partnership that was forged by the three of two, the cooperation across different administrations of different parties, and perhaps even more surprising, across multiple agencies of one government. extended totion has the project that we are hearing about today where they have brought from the private sector, from government service, from academia, the people who worked with them as their key 2007-2009 back to do the work to explain what they did a

when oil collapsed a few years ago, janet yellen looked right through that.aw that as a transitional factor. production started sliding heavily in the united states. there was a bit of a reassessment, as shale production had tripled, the broader u.s. economy was in a different place. a $26 oil price was not constructive to the hole u.s. inflation story. wtithe fed looks at oil, if and stays0 or $90 there for a couple days, it will be interesting. not focus on core numbers, inflation metrics. i think it will certainly help reinforce -- certainly the energy reproduction story. you hear stories of truckers getting paid $350,000 a year. it will only accelerate the inflation story. the other chart that is adjusting to look at is the break even in inflation. those to be more sensitive to inflation than nominal yields do. yearu look at real 10 yields, for example, which have gone up a lot this year, you may see those starting to contract. what this ultimately suggests, if tariffs drive inflation could ignite a staflationary risk in 2019. shery: let me bring in econo

so i'm there, i speak in the morning session, the first day of these three days, and janet yellen -- who is the former chairwoman from the fed at the time -- had spoken first. and one of the things that she had basically conveyed to this room full of central bankers from around the world was that everything was fine. that the banks were sort of reformed, that regulations were many place to sort of protect the american and, by extension, global population. and there wouldn't be a crisis again. i'm paraphrasing, but this is basically what she said. and then someone from the treasury department came and sort of said the same thing but more confidently. and then a cardinal spoke. and one of the things he said to this room of central bankers was i don't know anything about finance or economics or what monetary policy is, but i do know that there is a world out there that could potentially be in pain and that it is your responsibility to remember the poor. and that was basically what he said. with that, i came on in front of this room. it's at the room where the fomc, the federal open mark

before we begin, i like to welcome andrew, the janet yellen professor of finance and management at the yale school of management and the director of their financial stability program. [applause] andrew: good morning. you are here to see what is the main event, a multiyear project to catalog and explain the actions taken during the financial crisis by the official sector in the u.s. these actions were taken by these three individuals. while we can argue and discuss, and we will whether any of the specific things they did were good or bad or worked or didn't work, what is not in dispute is the extraordinary partnership that was forged by the three of them, the cooperation across two different administrations of different parties, and perhaps even more surprising, across multiple agencies of one government. this cooperation has extended to the project that we are hearing about today where they have brought from the private sector, from government service, from academia, the people who worked with them as their key lieutenants in 2007-2009 back to do the work to explain what they did and t

but before you begin i would like to look into the stage and director, the janet yellen professor of finance and management a at the yale schoolf management and the director of their financial stability program. thank you very much. [applause] >> good morning. you were here to see what is the main event, what is a multimedia project to catalog, explain and analyze the actions that were taken during the financial crisis by the official sector in the united states. these actions were taken by these, as leaders, these three individuals here, and i think while we can argue and discuss, and we will, whether or not any of the specific things that they did were good or bad or worked or didn't work, what is not in dispute is the extraordinary partnership that was forged by the three of them, the cooperation across two different administrations of different parties, and perhaps even moreng surprising in official washington across multiple agencies of one government, the federal government. this cooperation has extended to the project that we are hearing about today where they have brought fro

remember when janet yellen hiked rates for the first time, it felt like she was going, trying to show wall street her independence. the data wasn't there. it was an odd move. it caught a lot of people off-guard. that was in december. that january, first two or three weeks of the month were the worst two or three months ever in the history of the market in january. wall street sent a message pretty loud and clear. wall street guy, not classically trained economist. you can't go strictly by the spreadsheet. he understands markets. he understands the economy. he understands main street. remember the rally we had after his comments at jackson hole were phenomenal. i'm hoping, i believe, i really believe, unless the data gets so overwhelming, you know, for instance, that the construction jobs, 23,297 over last year. i went over each category. that is only one where pay went down. neil: is that right? >> not a lot but only category we saw a decline. slow and steady, room to grow, not wedded to the idea of instant knee-jerk reaction based solely on the rigid parameters. i think that is what

what do you think of that idea >> this was janet yellen's plan. run the economy hot, we might get people to join the work force it worked for a few months, but it seems to have petered out jay powell, now the chairman, also supported the idea. allen krueger, your previous guest, supported it, too, saying it is a way to great bargaining power when it comes to wages, just run the economy hot. >> i'm sorry we're talking about a radical idea that the fed would sort of ignore the incipient or theoretical inflation concerns and just let it go see how far we can drive down the unemployment rate. see if there is a response by the way, for the record, i looked back 50 years there is no response ever of the participation rate to the unemployment rate. what there are are vast demographic trends of women coming back into the work force, enough deciding they're working so some leaving the work force there were big trends. this would be a radical experience megan, i think you're signing on for it, right? >> yeah. i mean, you said it right, the theoretical infla

[laughter] ben bernanke and janet yellen, because we really know who rests cued the economy back thensir. great to see you. >> great to see you. dagen: coming up, florence's fury. we head to jab sonville, north carolina -- jacksonville, north carolina, live as residents confront severe flood being, still. >>> plus, the world's largest diaper brand is reportedly ditching sesame street characters from its designs due to gender concerns. those details ahead. ♪ ♪ (vo) when bandits stole the lockbox from the wells fargo stagecoach, agent beekman was one step ahead of them. because he hid his customers' gold in a different box. and the bandits, well, they got rocks. we protected your money then and we're dedicated to helping protect it today. like alerting you to certain card activity we find suspicious. if it's not your purchase, we'll help you resolve it. it's a new day at wells fargo. but it's a lot like our first day. a hotel can make or break a trip. and at expedia, we don't think you should be rushed into booking one. that's why we created expedia's add-on advantage. now after booking

i'm most interested in is how he describes the dots one of the things that was so amusing about janet yellenmbivalent relationship with the dots, the projections that the fed makes for future interest rates. when they were in line with what she wanted, she would site them as an indication of where things were going and when they weren't what she wanted, she kind of dissed them. so i'm interested -- we'll see there's some new members of the committee. we'll see the dots going up. does jay powell -- do they speak for him or is he going to speak against the dots >> david wessel, appreciate it from the hutchins center on fiscal and monetary policy good morning to you, glen. >> so you do mention it and then you -- golly >> you know -- >> you know glenn hutchins >> i do. and i just e-mailed with him he's watching this morning >> then you know he's not hutchinson >> i have my own problems. >>> all right. amazon is going beyond smart home devices taking a stake in a start-up that actually builds homes. amazon's alexa fund invested in plant prefab that's a southern california company that uses sustai

you remember when janet yellen hiked rates, it seemed like for the wrong reese son.ok a serious hit. she learned a lesson from that. what does it mean for this rally? >> profits prevail. the profit rally is powerful for the foreseeable future. if you look what could go wrong, a lot of debt put on a lot of sectors of society with easy money. rates are going up. at some point rates go up to start to hurt to affect people but not yet. you're talking 12, 18, 24 months out. right now i think profits prevail. susan: isn't that a tough position for the fed because tariffs go up and paying more for iphones or in the future because of tariffs? charles: i will say this, in the last quarter, iphone selling price is up 19% year-over-year. is there any american, out there, let me know, tweet me, did you get a 19% raise year-over-year? that is how much the average apple phone sold for last quarter. they're going up. charles: without the tariffs. by the way apple, initial stocks on apple iphones and watches sold out. susan: sold out. charles: anyone here? did you get the watch? >>

and they are no longer comfortable using this our star conversation that was so prevalent in janet yellen's> meaning we are talking about the data coming in, going to be very dependent on what they see. do you think the fed's policy matches up with what they should be doing >> oh, i think for sure. i think you could be arguing they should be doing more given how strong the economy is, how tight labor markets have come. i think the interesting question in the global economy that relates to tariffs is we have the u.s. doing really well here. we have a lot of question marks about what's happening abroad. 10% tariff isn't going to do much damage. we have the issue of where that's heading, we have the issue of the chinese economy, nafta negotiations which we should be watching if we don't get agreement by canada, it's going to be hard to get a deal before the end of the year there are a bunch of issues still playing out here, most of which have to do either with trade or with what's happening outside of the u.s. >> given all of that, what would you say? what are you anticipating for gdp for the

i don't think there was a good reason to fire janet yellen, but he replaced her with someone who hasme views that she had. most republicans when they talk about the federal reserve during the presidential campaign and before, they made noises they wanted a hard money person. they were very worried about inflation. they wanted higher interest rates. that would have been a real problem for the economy. trump, to his credit, has had a better view on that than most people in his party. you've seen him lambasting the fed for raising rates too fast. that's a better instinct for him to have than what most republicans seem to have which is that the fed ought to be more hawkish. and he's done some negative things on the trade stuff, but the effects of that are small. >> you look lsz at the markets and the markets continue to go up. trade is the one area where i do give donald trump a little bit of a benefit of the doubt that he's not just being a day trader. you can actually see. and steve, i talked to democratic business men, republican businessmen, they all say the same thing. and first of

i think that is the headwind, in a way, the new chairman after janet that is the headwind, in a way, the new chairman afterjanet yellenstrong, and employment at record low levels, inflation creeping up, growth of a% a year, the concern from the fed is that there will be three more rate rises next year, is the an overheating problem? you‘ve also got this remarkable political battle with the president has criticised the chairman of the fed raising interest rates, saying it doesn‘t help with "cheap money" is the president calls it, and jay powell has gone around meeting congress members, saying, this is why we do what we do and we should be independent. so as ever with america, a new prison because of the way the president operates. you have to look at these things but the fed is concerned with things like overheating in the economy and this huge fiscal boost, meaning inflation could become runaway, high wages will feed into the system and i think that is the danger as well. thank you. we have run out of time, have a lovely weekend, kamal. this is set to stay in touch, we will look at your questions about loyalty. stay u