and hints are just what investors will be looking for when fed chair janet yellen liesman reports, many economie path of spres rat >> at the meet at its annual retreat, raging fires in the majestic mountai meeting interest, which is focused on finding a framework to dtsds but the krbz fed survey found e. just 24% and 16% meanwhile, 47% say current policy is made based ton latest qureport. though some say the fed has been inconsistent, the data itself has been inconsistent. >> the problem has been as they've been looking at the l you use, they haven't had a consistent period in which they could act in a consistent way to raise rates. >> as it is, survey respondents have pushed back yet again their expeck tases from december to january 2017. they now think that t fed gets hiking rates at 2.29% in early 201. while rate rs forecast to stay low, stocks are seen rising just modestly this s& hitti 22.75 in 2017. the stock comes with modest economic growth. gdp is seen gaining just under 2% this year and a bit above it next year. the many concern the fuallout frd te uncertainties, the outcome o

first, we start with janet yellen. steve liesman is on the ground where it all took place in jackson hole, wyoming. steve, she? >> well, she was clear i thought this her keynote speech here at the meeting that rates will likely rise soon. here's from the speech quote in light of continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, i believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. that means it's coming, but was unclear about when the fed might hike, but later, i asked the vice chair, sfan fisher, if a rate hike was possible in september and maybe one this year. >> i think what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data. people people get upset about ut saying we're data driven and i see criticisms of data driven. i don't know what the alternative is to a coin? >> so, his comments prompted reversal in stocks. based his outlook to improve in the seco

janet yellen in jackson hole. those should be coming in any moment. the dow as you can see up about a quarter of a percent. to steve liesman. >> thanks very much. yellen saying the case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months. the u.s. economy is reaching mack mum employment and price stability the two goals of the federal reserve. the u.s. economy continues to expand and that solid growth in household spending. had solid growth in household spending. long talk about what the fed would do in the next recession that is actually the subject of the speech beyond the comments on the near term outlook. she said the fed needs to retain the new tools it gained from the crisis and has the tools to fight the next recession even if the funds rate rises to just 3%. those tools include interest on excess reserves they'll play a key role she says for years to come and the possibility she talks about this model of potentially using two $2 trillion of additional quantitative easing in order to fight the next recession. doesn't say that's what they'll do but says there's a model out there and that would be helpful in context of it. couple more contex

let's begin with fed chief janet yellen's comments in jackson hole. steves liesman joins us from wyoming with the highlights. steve? >> reporter: yeah, hi, kelly. fed chair janet yellen pretty clear at the fed's annual jackson hole retreat that rates likely rise soon. she wasn't entirely clear about when. she said, quote, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, i believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. the market kind of rallied on that. today's gdp report showed sluggish growth just above 1% and stan fischer said he dismissed it as a back-looking measure. >> we want to be looking ahead making this decision. not back. we're reasonably close to what is thought of as full employment. and inflation right this year is higher than last year's. it's still not up to 2%. it's been growing so you ask what are the big numbers we look at that? they're better than they have been for sometime. >> reporter: and so maybe the one that got the market's a

janet yellen herself speaking. thanks. >> my pleasure. >> steve liesman. three trades on three stocks making news today.t fitness posting strong quarterly results. jimmy? >> a good ipo. stock done well. a lot of momentum. earnings supporting it. i think if you're a momentum player a stock you want to own, on a valuation basis, a little pricey. your a value investor probably not going to own it. >> josh, i don't remember off the top of my head where nvidia was two weeks or so ago. >> 57. >> at 57. >> or 56 and change, and he nailed it. >> okay. >> you hadn't -- originally bought the stock. you liked it. liked it on the show. >> yeah. >> now you've bought the stock as of a week or so ago. >> i bought tattle after, a few days after talking about it and staying with it. here's what i think is important about nvidia. without repeating what i said originally, jut the general gist of the stock is it's a semiconductor company that is levered to every single major secular growth trend within technology. wireless and pc are the past. the futch sir going to be things like virtual reality, augmented reality, automa

ahead of fed chair janet yellen's speech tomorrow, the federal reserve is coming under increased scrutiny for its recent policy decisions. steve liesman reports from >> reporter: for the past several years the fed has gathered for its annual meeting in jackson hole, the grand tetons have served as a majestic background fcrisis, the great financial crisis, fiscal cliff and the feefrts break-up of the european union to name a few and as markets away janet yellen's speech friday, the debate is more about fighting crisis and more about removing accommodation. fed speak for raising interest rates. >> labor slack is coming out of the labor market. we're making from us straightly slow progress but some progress on inflation, and i think that gdp growth in the second half of the year will be stronger because the consumer is strong, and even the second-quarter gdp number which was disappointing, was disappointing because of an inventory adjustment and final demand was in fact strong so, yeah, i think the case is strengthening. i'm not going to speculate on which meeting. >> there's still plenty of reason for worry. u.s. and global growth has b

the fed chair janet yellen hours away from taking center stage in jackson hole, and investors will be hanging on every single word she says. cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman is on the ground with what is sure to be a very big day for the fed and for the market. steve? >> reporter: yeah. melissa, good to put it in context. for the past several years the fed meeting in jackson hole has taken place amidst a crisis, the financial crisis and the fear that the european union would break up. >> labor slack is coming out of the labor market. we're making frustratingly slow progress and the some progress on inflation, and i think that gdp growth in the second half of the year will be stronger because the consumer is strong, and even the second quarter gdp number was disappointing, because of a inventory number and final demand was strong and i think the case is strengthening. i'm not going to speculate on which meeting. >> reporter: so there's still plenty that the fed is worried b.u.s. and global growth. been sluggish. inflation below the 2% target and the fed's framework for deciding on rates, that's the topic of the meeting. it's the subject of some pointed cri

meanwhile, investors watching jackson hole where fed chair janet yellen is set to speak tomorrow morning. st. lou steve liesmanl guest. hey, steve. >> carl, remember yesterday we had clouds on the tetons and take a look now, it's gorgeous tetons in the background. i think you will see more in a second. introduce my guest here, dallas fed president robert kaplan. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, steve. >> let me begin with our fed survey, which shows that 60% of our respondents say i mean, basically the fed is making it up. they don't think there's a framework, 47 to 37, they say, the fed is going from the latest economic data. not going on the medium term forecast. is that the right way to think about it? >> are you making it up? >> of course not. part of the challenge fed is adjusting to that and what's happening is, is a lot as many have said, the neutral rate which sounds a little wonky but the natural rate of interest has been declining and a period of transition where the fed is adjusting to that and i think our job is to communicate much better than we do. how we're thinking about the economy and why we

. >>> as we look to janet yellen's speech in jackson hole friday, what does wall street think the markets are headed the rest of the year? steve liesmanhole already and has more on that. hello, steve. >> hey, mike. yeah waiting for janet yellen's speech on friday. we'll have several interviews with fed officials that i'll talk about in a minute. and our cnbc fed survey showing that the market believes the fed will act later than they had previously. this is the cnbc fed survey special jackson hole edition. now let's look at where they think the market will be. and you need to think about this in two ways. the first when you look at where we are right now, on the s&p, seen rising a little bit for the rest of the year, less than about a half a percentage point and then maybe another 4% through 2017. so not a lot of upside viewed by our 39 respondents to our survey in august. but then look at it, it all occurs in a context of low interest rates. the 10-year yield seen rising to 176. call that about 20 bit from where we are right now and 226 in 2017. so interest rates stay down, stocks stay high but don't rise much further. art hogan from

on friday, janet yellen is set to speak at the annual jackson hole symposium, aka the biggest monetary policy event of the year. so of course our own steve liesman, you've been looking at the results of the latest cnbc fed survey and i understand you are seeing a response that has never happened before when it comes to an election. >> yeah, that's right, michelle. things were getting strange and now our cnbc fed survey shows that our 39 respondents believe it's best for the economy if a democrat, aka hillary clinton, wins the election. if you look at the chart, clinton now leads on best for the economy 47 to 37 among the economists, fund managers and strategists who responded. and when you look back at the history, we've been asking this question since march, the republican has led by 20 points in general. so a huge reversal. then we ask who's got the best policies for the economy. it's a little bit closer there, but you can see clinton has made tremendous strides. this coming of course after that disastrous week that donald trump had in which even many republicans were critical of his remarks. and that seemed to have turned the tide among some

janet yellen's speech arriving today. right around here. at 10:00 a.m. and then a little bit later, after the markets were rallying a little bit, seems like status quo message, our steve liesmanewed vice chairman stanley fischer right there and the market went down from there. we'll hear more from steve in just a minute. we'll take you to jackson hole for that. >> we'll come back to that pattern. >>> alom