. >> reporter: janet yellin and fellow monetary policy makers wrapped up the first fed meeting of the year by making clear no rate hike is imminent. the overall economy has been expanding at a solid pace. and thanks to falling energy prices plus a strong dollar inflation has fallen even further below the feds 2% target. reason enough it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. leading economists and fed watchers are looking toward the mid june meeting as the first real test of the fed's patience. >> they are going to look at inflation as transitory low. a couple years from now, inflation will be higher. it isn't going to be zero rates. when do we have a small rate hike and what will the path be. the economy is going to get very hot. it's even getting a little hot now. >> while the feds did not mention the slowing global economy, it did say it will take international developments into account in determining when to start raising interest rates. that triggered concern in the bond market. with yields on u.s. treasuries going lower. >> keep in mind that the

maybe, janet yellin. if europe and japan and the middle east continue to deteriorate the way they are, janet yellin's job will get a lot tougher. >> do you think we will see interest rates rise by the summer of this year? >> no. i think it would be good for the country, but i do not think -- i do not think the economic conditions will be stable enough at that point. there may be a token rise, but the real rise is far off. >> it sounds as though people are factoring in 25 basis points on the initial. >> unless you are in the carry trade business, what difference is 25 basis points make? you can factor it in. you are being conservative, but relative to the overall impact that is not where the rubber meets the road. >> it is not going to make much difference for you? >> no. >> earlier, we were talking about how you're gone into some of the junk debt of these fractures. that is a big investment idea that you have for 2015. did me your next two a guest investment ideas -- give me your next two big investment i

>> no, because now the honeymoon is over for janet yellin. why? because she had a year to coast and to hang out and chill under the old regime. she put that word patient in, and now the expectation is going to begin. does patient come out in march? remember what patient means. it's code for two meetings. >> what happens when patient comes out in march? what's the market reaction? if it come out. >> i think there's zero chance of the fed raising rates this year. i think the markets -- >> you're -- 2016. >> i -- >> can you envision? >> one more point -- >> yeah. let me sober you all up. we're going to get -- >> i would like to be. >> sorry about this. look. this is central bank. the kind of economy we have and the kind of economy that gives us achievement of a full employment objective is not an economy that a central banker can leave with zero rates, let alone zero rates forever. and they'll look at inflation as at transitory low, and a couple of years from now inflation will be higher. it isn't going to be zero rate. the question is when do we hav

janet yellin said discouraging work er workers are part of the decline. fact that some workers have stopped looking for a job put a damper on the unemployment numbers? >> it does. if you listen to what chair janet yellin is saying she's going a bit further. she's saying in fact, we think if we can get the job market really tight evened up so we start to see wage pressure, instead of too many workers chasing too few jobs, the other way around, employers needing to bid wages up to make better paycheck offers in order to get people back to the workforce. chair yellin thinks we can pull some of those folks back in. yes, the bottom line is there's more slack in the labor market than that 5.6% unemployment rate would suggest. that said, we're still moving in the right direction and moving there more quickly than we were. >> you touched on it. let's talk about the other weak spot, average hourly wages fell 5% in december. can there be a successful recovery of workers seeing the benefits of higher wages? how do we factor 20 states raising the minimum wage? >> fir

getting jobs and i think the so-called underemployment rate will fall as well and that's a sign that janet yellin and the fed watch adds to how many of these jobs are full-time versus part-time and all last year and i think again in december i know there's a lot of talks about part-time minnie mouse jobs. but if you look at manufacturing services and the number of breakdown between full and part-time, the jobs we created last year and i think in december are more full-time better paying jobs. >> all right. stewart hoffman with pnc financial, thank you so much for joining us tonight. >> thank you. >>> one big growth area for jobs, the app economy. apple helped create indirectly and directly more than 100 jobs in the apps industry. roughly two-thirds of those positions are developers creating programs for iphone and ipod device. >>> the most iconic consumer brands with soda sales falling, part of a cost cutting plan. and mcdonald's amid slumping burg sales. >>> crude prices ended higher but not by much. up by 14%. and your international brent and 51 dollars a barrel andrew sorkin a number of busine

of course it's all dependent on what janet yellin tells us. >> the mortgage rates out there, what do you think will happen? >> well we're looking for the ten year to get up to 3% by tend of the year. data dependent, it could be 27 2.75 or 3%. we see tinhe inflation under control and we think there could be capital expenditure. >> one of the resolutions is to put some of the savings and money in the market for january. what advice can you give where are good places to put your money in the new year and then come out okay by next year at this time? >> all right. so our themes we're looking for capital expenditure. that would lead us towards the industrials. you know that the consumer has got more money in their pocket. that would lead us towards consumer discretionary. we believe interest rates are going up. that would lead us towards the financial sector. and then look at the energy sector. you want to be really careful here but we think that the baby has been thrown out with the bath water on a lot of these names and you can very selectively look at these names also. >> a lot of our

it will be the tonality of what janet yellin and her cohorts say. will they remain patient? what does that actually mean? we are in a different economic situation. is it right to assume the patients is six months? over 70% of the people in the polls we look at suggest the fed will not be concerned about lower levels of inflation. this is the dollar index i am showing you. we are back in the green for a day. up a third of 1%. don't fight the trend. even the bloomberg story talked about clichÉs. deutsche bank says the momentum remains intact. >> i don't mind a clichÉ. you are welcome to give me that every morning. i am looking at a stronger dollar. that is the story ahead of the federal reserve meeting later today. the markets are opening a little bit higher. a selloff yesterday in the united states on wall street. you had losses over 1%. the s&p and the nasdaq. there is one company riding high. that is apple. apple crushed expectations delivering the biggest corporate profit in history. up five point 74 percent. let's get to caroline hyde. give us some of the numbers. high ba

but janet yellin is right to say that it all has to hinge on the data. and we'll see the data as it comes. she's right to say that the fed is going to be flexible and respond as events come. >> okay do you read the data different than she reads the data? >> i don't know. at this moment i think both of us read the data the same way which is that at this moment the interest rate is in the right place. and i'm not sure how the fed will read the data as it comes. where i would differ in emphasis from plane people is i wouldn't raise interest rates because i thought the economy was overheating because it had grown fast. i want to see the proof in what's happening to inflation before it would be appropriate to raise rates. and if i can just say the reason i think that is that if we let the price-- we let inflation rise slightly that's a problem we've seen before. that's a problem we know how to control. it's not even clear how big a problem it is. on the other hand, if we allow deflation to happen that's potentially catastrophic. and that would be where i woul

janet yellin and her team are meeting today on interest rate policy.ting them to rise. they just want to get a further look at what the fed is thinking about inflation. that is the big question. >> i wouldn't be optimistic that we will get an enormous amount of clarity at the meeting today. we don't tend to get an enormous amount of clarity. if you look at the economic data, it hasn't changed all that much. >> durable goods came in worse than expected. housing numbers were stagnating. i don't know. i don't know if the base case scenario is --. >> i don't know if you raise rates in this environment area --. we have oil falling to the floor. i would've expected that money to find its way into other areas. it hurts texas and oklahoma. you would think the people in new york and connecticut would be happy. >> it is to some extent. there is the lay in that affect. maybe rates go up in the summer. 80 consumers>> as the fed starts their policy meeting, i want to bring in pat dorsey. pat any kind of clarity you think we're going to get from the fed today? >> th

bilateral talks would be a first step forward -- >> on the global economy, the new mediocre -- janet yelline best -- collapsing price and negative interest rates. peter fisher has a more optimistic outlook. deflation, justin rates -- adjusted rates -- what is the environment mean? >> step back and think clearly about real borrowing costs. 100 years ago, if a kansas corn farmer faced falling prices of corn, his income was falling and his debt payments were fixed. that debt burden went up. the factory worker had rising really income. we have to think clearly about what it means to borrow. business today have positive operating margins, 10% or better. the army are borrowing money for free. not because inflation is low -- we have to untangle that. >> bringing microeconomics into the view -- let's take the germans. a weaker euro is a plus for germany. these are good things. >> that is unquestionably a good thing. not a good thing from the low yields in europe. they make money on the term premium. the spread between short-term and long-term. when it gets flat it's hard for a lender to make money.