it's actually young compared to japan and china. ulation peaks in 2035 which is later than japan or china. what about the united states? there is aging in the united states as well. what's interesting is the united states population will not peak this century. because of immigration the u.s. is the only one of the economies i'm discussing where population and labor force will grow and the u.s. population is project ed to reach 500 million people by the end of the century. china is projected to be down to a billion people by the end of the century. if you take the projections seriously the difference will be two to one by the end of the century rather than four and a half to one that we see now. i start with the demographics and spend more time. this is an important foundation of economic growth for the region. for two reasons. one is it's hard to have rapid gdp growth once the labor force starts to decline. if the labor force is declining you have to move workers from one to another. with population and labor force growth the adjustm

china city. the government ran a survey last month covering 3,000 people aged 20 or older. japan controls the senkaku islands. china and taiwan claim them. the japanese government claims they are a part of japan's territory in terms of history and international law. it says there's no issue of sovereignty to be resolved over them. the surveyed response was 60.9%. among those who responded was 74.5% who indicate an interest in the islands. that's up eight points from last year's survey. those who showed little interest fell to 23.8%. the survey asked what aspect of the islands they're interested in. the majority had 63.3% had japan easter tor yal rights to the islands. the second answer was the historical background chlgt the survey asked about the tack shim islands in the south of japan. the japanese government maintains the islands are an inherent part of japan's territory. it says south korea is illegally occu occupying them. the survey shows that 66.9% are interested in the islands. that's a drop of 4.2 points from last year's survey. 30.7% of respondents expressed little or n

she later said we should hold a foreign ministerial meeting among japan, south korea and china in the hope that it would lead to a summit meeting. as a leader of japan, i would like to cooperate toward that goal. >>> officials in neighboring countries have been closely watching the developments in tokyo. diplomats from china and south korea want abe's administration to improve relations. >> translator: china hopes japan will continue to take a peaceful approach and play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the region. >> they referred to an agreement last month on how to strengthen the two nation's ties. she suggested china will monitor japan's moves including its national security policies. diplomats in seoul say they hope the japanese government will make sincere efforts to advance friendly and cooperative relations. and they want abe's administration to move bilateral relations forward in a future-oriented way, based on a correct view of history. >>> the israel government called on people living near the border of the gaza strip to be on alert on christmas day. t

or korea-japan-china will come up with a kind of trilateral format, korea, japan, china. my question to professor lee, what is the china's take on promotion of the trilateral summit meeting among japan, korea and china. so i want to hear your view on that. finally i think u.s. issue will play a role. i don't think u.s. can determine this situation but as for the comfort issue i think the u.s. can take much, much stronger position on that and abe will do it smartly. thank you. >> thank you, professor park. i would like to test the tolerance of the before lunch but i always have some two questions. one question, why are, chinese pressure on north korea lead to destabilization? if pyongyang believes, beijing is serious, would it not cooperate and reap benefits of the western economic aid? maybe somebody could make some soness. -- some response. or this could be discussed in the third session. second question, seoul and moscow are working together with north korea on development project. a port, potential laying pipeline development. despite u.s. demands that south korea confr

the company uses the same menu in china as it does in japan. it claims to provide the highest level of care. the cost of accommodation is at least $500 a month, that's two to five times the price of an average chinese nursing home. but the japanese-style care with its focus on detail, has proved popular. >> translator: this place is very comfortable. out makes me feel like i'm at home. >> reporter: about 50 local people are employed here. jun yu is one of the nurses. she moved to shanghai from a town 300 kilometers away in order to earn money for her son's university tuition. >> translator: i'd like it if the home could keep attracting more elderly residents. it would be great if i could carry on working here for a long time. >> reporter: many of the caregivers are women aged around 50. facilities such as this are increasingly important employers. the management is preparing for even more growth. it plans to double its staff to 100. >> translator: in china the retirement age for women is 50. so places like ours are a popular option for retired

of investors will be watching for what the federal reserve may do and how the policymakers in japan, china, europe as well as emerging economies react. and that's all for me for this year. >>> that was ramin mellegard from nhk world's business desk. >>> japanese workers are known for putting in long hours at the office. many spend a lot of time behind desks, which takes a toll on their bodies. now they're being encouraged to be more active on the job, to improve health and productivity. >> reporter: this is a major software development company in yokohama. about 700 engineers use computers for long hours. because of the sedentary nature of their work many are suffering from obesity and stiff shoulders. so when the company moved in august, it designed the new office to promote physical activity during work hours. the floor in the hallway has a series of lines corresponding to one's body height. for example, a 175 centimeter tall person is encouraged to walk with an 80 centimeter stride. that's because lengthy strides can burn more calories. this chair has a small seat with a unique arm rest

japan. mostly dry over the pacific side, including kagoshima today where the launch was -- took place. however, because of the system coming in from china, lots of rain is likely for the pacific side of japan, including tokyo. our high is going to be only 11 degrees. that is your figure in seoul throughout the day. here's your extended forast around the globe. >>> that's "newsline" for this hour. i'm gene otani in tokyo. >> our stories. coming together to crush the islamic state organization. the meeting gets underway in brussels. on the agenda, how to hit the militants' finance and stops foreign fighters from joining them. costsunders of hong kong occupied movement -- hong kong's occupy movement surrendered to police. up for a bitter election cycle. snap elections will be held on march 17.

controls the islands, and the government maintains they are part of japan's territory. china and taiwan claim them. soon after, coast guard officials saw chinese government ships intruding in japan's waters. there was a spike in 2013 of 188 vessels. that number dropped to 81 this year. abe's visit to yasukuni shrine last december further froze relations. the shrine honors japan's war dead. those remembered include leaders convicted of war crimes after world war ii. chinese leaders say the visit aims to glorify japan's past militarism and aggression. but this handshake looked to be the start of a fall in relations. in november, prime minister abe and president xi jinping held their first summit. >> translator: neighbors should maintain dialogue. i believe we can find ways to resolve any kind of challenges through frank discussions between leaders. >> reporter: but there's another neighbor to mend relations with, south korea. japan and south korea also have disagreements over history. north korea's nuclear and missile development is another concern. authorities in pyongyang lau

things going and keep the course as it is to see this kind of growth, which is comparable to europe, japan china and elsewhere is behind us. america is great keep it that way. >> gary b. is keeping america great mean more government spending. >> god, i hope not, brenda. seems like the past few administrations, whether it's the obama administration or george bush administration, going back to fdr, every government solution is to take money from our pocket and spend it themselves. listen, i might be fine with that if there was positive benefit. it's been shown in study after stud brenda -- >> you have seen benefit. >> hold on, please. if you take a dollar from me and the government spends it you get back less than a dollar. two, where in the constitution did the founders lay out it's the government's responsibility, whether they do a good job or not, to stimulate the economy? where is that? it's the private sector. it's not the government's job to reign in inflation or tap on the gas or any of that. protect our shores, protect us from ebola, enforce the laws, then go away. >> gary b. -- hold on da

but also on how policymakers in japan, china, europe as well as emerging economies, react. and that's all for me for this year. >> that was ramin mellegard from nhk world's business desk. >>> voters in greece will head to the polls for general elections early next year. the parliament has rejected the nominee by prime minister samaras for president. he was unable to gain the 180 votes needed to win the post. the former european commissioner had not been able to get the mandatory two-thirds of the 300 total votes in the previous two rounds. the requirement was lowered to 180 for the third round of voting. samaras set january 25th as the date for a parliamentary election. the greek government has been implementing severe austerity measures in exchange for assistance from the european union. the country's financial problems have affected the rest of europe. the main opposition party, which opposes the measures is leading opinion polls. it is yet unknown whether samaras can remain in office. the greek stock index closed 4% below the previous week and at one point it was down 11

china to shelf issues regarding the senkakus. and he said there's no change in the government's position that the islands are an inherent part of japan's territory, both in terms of history and international law. china and taiwan claim the japan-controlled islands. >>> a japanese university professor is turning to films to help solve a language problem. he's trying to get more of his students to learn chinese. and he's getting help from some special guest speakers from abroad. nhk world has more. >> reporter: haneda airport in tokyo. three young chinese movie actors flew in last month as part of an exchange initiative by a japanese university. in the film the three actors play contrasting roles, a girl who is suffering under the weight of her mother's expectations. a spoiled boy from a wealthy family who goes off the rails. and a street kid who survives by pickpocketing. all reflect issues faced by children in modern china. >> translator: japanese people have a bad reputation in china. i want to find out what they're really like. >> reporter: the initiative was the idea of tatsuo yoshikawa, an officer at kaio university. he says the nu

so you are saying some restriction in the economies there in japan and china, so -- why won't opec cut supply? pacicly when we talk about opec, the only country with the kind of capacity. >> saudi arabia. >> right. >> saudi arabia would have to make a cut between 1,000,002,000,000 a day. it would be the only country to take the losses well everybody else would enjoy a free ride. iran, venezuela. so it is difficult for there to be coordinated action. opec today has less than 40%, they are a minority of the world global oil production, so don't have the power to influence. here is the thing this' kind of a booming oil shale business. they could jeopardize -- in the u.s. domestic production. >> . >> things are quite different, a lot of the oil that's been produced is associated with natural gas, so it is -- these -- it is going to happen if you are producing the gas and oil, a lot has already paid for their licenses their rigs they won't stop the production, just because the oil prices have gone down they are getting a lot more efficient, so i think all of these -- the theories that they

whether china will continue to play history card and then try to cut the korea-japan ties. or come up with kind of a trilateral format created in china. so my question to the professor is what is china's take on the promotion of the trilateral summit meeting among japan and korea and china. so i wanted to hear your view on that. and finally, i think the u.s. should play a role. i don't think the u.s. can determine this situation, but as for the comfort woman issue, i hope the u.s. can take a much more stronger take on that. very smartly, silently. thank you. >> thank you, professor park. i would like to test your tolerance before lunch. i will just have two questions. one question is why -- the chinese pressure on north korea lead to destabilization. if pyongyang believes beijing is serious, would it not cooperate and reap the benefits of the western economic aid? maybe somebody could make some of these points. or this could be discussed in the third session. second question is, seoul and moscow are working together with north korea on development project. despite u.s. deman

there are obviously problems between japan and china relating to these. how does the united states navigate its way on that problem between japan and china? >> well, you have some complexity. you complexity. you have some complexity of the starting with china and japan that goes quite deep based on history, geography, politics, based on worldviews. you have in one capitol a deputy prime minister under mao, and on the other end in tokyo you have shins a lobby, the grandson of noble shoe was a wartime minister and help to administer japan occupied men's jewelry. already there is tension without even talking about anything else. else. layer over that the geographic sovereignty disputes and the history which, of course, we we will be celebrating and celebrating and celebrating and celebrating and remembering and remembering and remembering. managing that relationship, and i thought the ice cold handshake we saw in the media recently was a major positive step. whoever would have thought that that kind of handshake, an advanced person and the white house and nev

japan. we don't know so that is one factor. the other is china where they will try to create the ties or they will come up with a format. so my question is to take on the meeting with japan and korea and china so i wanted to hear your view on that and finally the u.s. should play a role. i don't think they can determine the conversation but i hope they have a stronger take on that. >> thank you, professor. i would like to pass the parliaments before lunch. what would increase the pressure needed to destabilize. >> they are working together with north korea on the development project the pipeline development despite the demand that [inaudible] will this succeed? to >> it is the same category that could be discussed but if anybody could respond it's up to you. there is a question for you. >> north korea believes to have nuclear weapons is very important. that's why it hasn't been able to give up. i want to say a few words on the comment that they are playing a history card. i don't like that term. it we are not playing it. it is an issue that unfor

there are obviously problems between japan and china relating to these. how does the united states navigate its way on that problem between japan and china? , atou have some complexity least starting with china and japan, that goes deep based on history and geography and politics. also based on worldviews. ,n one capital, xi jinping whose father was a deputy prime minister under mao, and in abe, theou have shinzo grandson of a wartime minister who helped administer japan half-occupied manchuria. when you layer over that the sovereigntynd disputes, and the history which, of course, we will be celebrating. and remembering. managing that relationship, and i got the ice cold handshake we saw in the media, was a positive step. whoever thought that kind of a person -- if you are in the white house and you had a picture like that, you would be fired. it was a breakthrough. you know what it means in each capital. the fact that they are standing together shaking hands, the next thing you know there will be a delegation going over and meeting at the lower level func

down, they loveed that idea of prices coming down from a global perspective it is frightening, japan, china, europe, latin america we hear the d word in a dangerous way in this situation. >> it pains a negative picture, you think terrible bred lines, but, i feel there might be an investment opportunity here. when you see this bryce drop you see -- price drop you see the consumer benefit, you see is over, you will see consumer buy more, more products, and even when it comes to restaurants and food. charles: that is backward prosperity, money goes into the economy. >> milton freeman said there was some good deflation too. talk about some investment ideas based on this a hedge, what will investor consider. >> you look at maybe a bellwether like intel, technology has been in a deflationary period for many years as prices come down, intel paints 2.4% dividend. charles: there is more's law, one of pioneers of silicon valley, according to him, computer chips every 18 months get twice as smart, go down in price twice as much that is why a lot of people avoid semiconductors but they have found a way

staring up from these walls, photos of some of the 300,000 people china says were massacred here. japan still disputes that figure saying it was at least half that number, either way it amounted to one of the worst wartime atrocities in the century. >> trade with japan and china is worth billions of dollars, but at times the two countries still seem enemies. chinese children still learn about this episode from an early age. >> my son was know the terrible facts. the massacre can never be denied. history is history. >> why does japan never apologize? can chinese people ever forgive them? never. >> our interview was abruptly ended by police. he was taken away and questioned and then let go. al jazeera. >> ten fighters have been killed in an air raid. security forces say the men were killed when their hide out were targeted. state media said that the raids destroyed a video thought to be the attack on the men by the police. >>> witnesses say shia houthies attacked the outskirts of a town using heavy weapons. houthi fight verse been expanding their territory since taking the capitol sanaa i

so is the crisis management mechanism in china and japan agreed to in principle last month in beijing, which we hope will become operational soon. conversely, last year the declaration of an air defense identification zone in the east china sea with an object lesson in how not to handle a sensitive issue pertaining to overlapping national interest. the coming year, 2015 presents us with a particularly sensitive set of issues. the anniversary is for mark. the 70th anniversary of the end of world war ii. the 50th anniversary of normalization between seoul and tokyo. 1945 saw the creation of the u.n., the dropping of the atomic on and hiroshima and not the sake. the united states occupation in japan, korea's independence and also at division and nationalist china's decision to recognize mongolia as an independent country, a country note that next year also celebrates 25 years of democracy. navigating all of these anniversaries, working through these remembrances, this is going to require restraint. it's going to require good judgment, political and diplomatic skill. and frankly, i welcom

there are obviously problems between japan and china relating to these rocks that are out of there. how does the united states navigate its way on that problem each when japan and china? >> well, you have some complexities. you have some complexity, at least starting with china and japan that goes quite deep based on history, based on geography, based on politics. taste own worldviews. you've got come in one capital, xi jinping, the son who was a deputy prime minister under mao, and on the other, in tokyo you have the grandson of a wartime minister and helped to add minister japan occupied. so already you can sense the tension that exists without even talking about anything else. view layer over that the geographic anthology disputes and the history which, of course, will be celebrating and celebrating and celebrating, and remembering at remembering and remembering. so mentioned that relationship, and i got the ice cold handshake we saw in the media recently was a major positive step to who ever would've thought that kind of handshake. if you're a an advanced person d why does it hav

china. finishing the transpacific partnership, the tpp, with japan and others. all of these will provide a huge lift to the global economy. china's ftas. korea's ftas. trade proposals like rcep. these are all an important part of the conversation as well. now the u.s. and china, as is well flown, are the world's greatest emitters of greenhouse gases. but our recent action on climate change, on targets, show we're determined to address it. so do president obama's and prime minister abe's pledges to the south korean-hosted global green climate fund of $3 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. and our countries are indeed's manufacturing capabilities will keep us at the clean of the clean-energy forefront. our tremendous experience from the bird flu and the sars experience helps ensure that our nations are key contributors to dealing with ebola response and it's certain that we'll need to do more in the future. and we're major providers of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from syria, to iraq, to the philippines after the super typhoon. we are also tacklin

particular when you look at metrics on book value, europe, japan, china, india is probably the outlier in terms of cheap but there you are getting the best e growth. 16, 17%. all the other regions you are trading 1.5, 1.6 book times value. here in the states 2.6. i would also say you don't want to necessarily sell the u.s. market just yet because our economy is getting better. and as the economy gets better our revenues are going to get better. so our earnings growth, which we just saw about 9% in the third quarter, versus 3, 4% in the first half of the year, i think you can see earnings acceleration, especially with low oil prices and interest rates are going to stay low for longer. >> the case for u.s. stocks, doc, becomes harder unless you get the multiple expansion that stephanie is talking about because of the continued earnings growth, correct? >> true. but i'll take a point from josh, where he said -- and i agree -- that it's all relative. if you are going to tell me -- and they did say in their note, soc gen did that basically europe credit, go for that rather than the u.s. com

he's got russia with ukraine, china, japan, the south china sea and a global pandemic that could be aserrifying as anything we have witnessed. and that's leaving out smaller crises. so, i think to blame him because the world is a mess, as i said, that's just crazy. i do think that his failure to follow through on the use of force where when assad used chemical weapons and obama had drawn that red line did really make many people wonder: was the u.s. prepared to stand up for things that it says are absolutely critical? i think that introduced an element of uncertainty. i don't think, though, you can say putin would not have invaded ukraine had obama been stronger. i don't think you can say isil would not have arisen. factuals. factuals. works. >> so when does the u.s. need to intervene? do our vital interests need to be at play and when is an interest a vital interest? >> so there is a clear vital interest where, you know, the defendants of our homeland, the defendants of our people, the difference of our allies all of those are things where, yes, we are prepared to use force. where i m

staring up from these walls photos of 300,000 people china says were massacred here. japan still disputes that figure saying it was at least half that number. but either way it amounted to one of the worst wartime atrocities of the last century. >> trade between japan and china is worth many billion dollars, but at times it seems the two countries are still enemies and it's the events 77 years ago that has come to define this problematic relationship. >> the chinese children need to learn. it's something that can never be denied. history is history. >> can chinese people ever forgive them? never. >> our interview was cut off by police. he was taken in for questioning and later released. with the presiden >> still to come on al jazeera. women who fled violence in their homeland come together in london to cook for peace and harmony. and in sport the latest from hawai'i where there is a free battle to decide the world surfing crowd. >> world war one... four years of bitter conflict.

we got japan's gdp shrinking more than expected, you've got a pretty weird china export number, you knowthink that people are looking at both of those countries and saying japan we get, but china's looking even worse than we thought it would. >> well, yeah, absolutely. i mean, they're -- they just surpassed us as a biggest economy in the world last week, that came out. yeah, you've got to watch what's going on in china. we've seen this developing, they were easing rates over here to try and help some of their rural banks. so, you know, if china was to have a real issue, it's going to be felt in the rest of the country, certainly through the rest of the world. liz: right. >> the one thing you've got to look at though, the chinese have pegged their currency to the u.s. dollar. the u.s. dollar is near five-year highs, we're dancing around that level, so that's something to look at. that may be a play that guys are looking at as they're trying to take advantage of that currency issue. liz: for everybody who was looking for an entry place in equities, maybe this is that buying opportunity you

now reuters out with a new report saying the united states consulted with japan, china, south korea andussia seeking assistance in reigning in north korean cyberattacks according to reuters sourcing a u.s. official on friday. the officials saying the united states is working through diplomatic channels to register our concerns and ask for assistance here. clearly interesting that in the fbi's statement they referenced north korean attacks on south korean banks so clearly there is an effort behind the scenes here by the united states to sort of put a ring around north korea diplomatically and get a lot of countries involved in whatever the response is going to be. >> it's a multinational response they are spear heading here rather than turning around to this country's security services and saying we unleash the hounds. >> interesting that they would invoke russia here. there's a lot of complaints about russian cyber activity and the united states has sanctions imposed on russia now and the united states has complained for years about chinese cyber hacking so to reach out to the chinese i

wang left his home in beijing and now staying in japan. in china, wang became known for his cartoons exposing social problems which he posted on the chinese social media equivalent to twitter. in november, world leaders gathered for the apec summit. the skies over beijing are shown as clear blue, that's because president xi jinping depicted as a spider is restricting traffic and closing factories that are the source of the city's chronic pollution. at one point, attracted as many as 900,000 followers in china. >> translator: instead of expressing stereo typical anger, i try to make fun of the situation. exposing the reality behind the government's image as being virtuous, that is the power of cartoons. >> reporter: since last year, the xi administration has been cracking down on people who express their opinions over the internet. wang did not escape attention. he was questioned by the police on several occasions then in late july while he was visiting japan, his webo account was suspended and was at warning. and when a tweet by wang drew attention

and for sure around the world in both japan and china and europe and emerging markets, all four of thosetation was. so the fed would have to be nervous if they said, you know, on one hand we want to start tightening, but if we start tightening, it's going to drive the dollar up even more. so i think it would be a -- it would be a difficult spot if they're in that -- liz: right. >> -- but to be in that, this would have to continue, and i don't know that it's going to be as strong and robust as the last month showed. liz: okay. maybe it'll go in fits and start, but the breaking news right now is now the dow is down 300 points. who would have thought that weaker oil prices, which are great for the u.s. consumer, is suddenly very bad for the u.s. markets right now. i mean, we can put up the dow jones industrials intraday, and you will see it not only dropped off right off the bat, but now we are seeing a big giveback at the moment in these last couple of minutes. why is this happening? >> well, yeah, i don't totally know. i'm not fully persuaded that it's people in a panic about the price of

trade between japan and china is worth many billions of dollars, but at times it seems the two countriesnemies and it's the events here sieve seven years ago that have come to define this problematic relationship. chinese children still learn about this episode from an early age. >> translator: my son must know these terrible fact, the massacre can never be denied, history is history. >> translator: why does japan never apologize? can chinese people ever forgive them? never. >> reporter: our interview was abruptly cut off by police he was taken away for questioning and later released. with the president here, local officials are silencing all forms of di sent, even decent ee directed at an old adversary. >>> haitian president has confirmed he will accept the prime minister's resignation. there have been street protests for several weeks calling for both the president and prime minister to quit. dominick kane reports. >> reporter: for days the chance of the political opposition have resounded in the streets. chicago was no different. protesters came with slogans and a cough town mark what

look at japan, china, india, all of these large and small will drop huge income boosts and benefits acrossremendous amount of investment in our energy sector. >> are we going to see double-digit returns in the u.s.? >> we are looking for a 9% global return. the u.s. can produce something with our% return markets at a steady valuation. it is an important part of returns. into thise are late recovery cycle in the financial markets. more than halfway through a global economic recovery. this is not a below point. >> i want to show you the chart tom keene got me. tom keene gets out of bed for an oil chart. the question is are you concerned this is going to translate into contagion in the large -- contagion in the broader market? >> it is all back to bed. >> you have to look at this as the dividing line of performance. for consumers this is not the largest part of your budget. it's not likely to be that sort of contagion. we could have sovereign defaults over this oil price drop. >> we are watching wrubel. -- it is not the ruvell anymore. ruble anymore. does annuity know how it is to nominated?

. >> translator: relations between japan and china are important for the two nations as well as for the rest of asia. >> japanese government courses quoted li as using a saying learn from history and aim for the future. an adviser to the board of toshiba led the japanese side. >> translator: the premier expressed his hope of normalizing relations with japan. relations have been strained for a long time. >> this is the first time the committee has met in three years. they want to continue toward peace and stability in asia. >>> people around the world are marking international volunteer day, and a japanese man is marking the occasion by turning chocolate into hope. he's using it to help underprivileged children find the path to sweet success. nhk has that story. >> reporter: colorful chocolates roll off the production line. this confectionary factory in central japan produces sweet snacks. here, you can find treats that support disadvantaged children around the world. this 51-year-old started the charity organization this past june. he uses some of these chocolate delicacies to give back

i want to show you a chart that shows the white line, china, and the yellow line, japan. both have been scooping up t-bills. on your screen, the middle of 2008, the financial crisis, what happened there is significant. china overtook japan to be the top holder at $1.25 trillion, compared to japan at one point $2 trillion. usually these two lines on your screen mimic each other, but what has happened as of late is you have china reducing the amount of foreign holdings, while you have japan scooping up, buying more because they benomics.upport a >> the fact that china is reducing holdings in u.s. treasuries, what do we read into that? care? should investors the number one reason is the upside pressure to yield spread that could be a big problem. you see higher yields for higher mortgage rates and i could put the housing market in jeopardy to number three, destabilization of the bond market. today we have the fomc meeting. if they get rid of that key phrase, " considerable time," what does that mean? you could see a hike in interest rates around the corner and a bunch of thes

china is slowing down. europe is on virg of deflation. japan has been stagnant 20 years. it is not good. curt, china is buying a lot less. that is the interesting stat that stood out for me. their imports are way down. they are buying less of stuff we produce. >> very true but i think it's a temporary situation. am like your previous guests you had on from raymond james i think we're in a long-term secular bill market. i think china and everybody else, this will help in the long term the lower energy prices. i don't think they will last that long. i think they move back to $75, $80 a barrel. at that price everybody can make money. somebody will get hurt, russia, venezuela, iran, places like that will suffer but the united states overall is becoming energy independent. that keeps billions and billions of dollars in our country hiring american people. i think we'll have just a tremendous opportunity to go forward. david: on the other hand, kerry, we are not an island. what happens abroad does affect us. >> right. david: can we survive an entire global recession which at least in terms of j

if we look at all the major economies -- u.s., europe, japan, china -- they are all energy consumers.nt decline is going to generate more growth and inflation and that is positive for stocks. >> do you see the correlation between the other asset classes is tight enough, that it signals something we can't see? >> tight enough? >> yeah, tight enough, between commodities -- do they signal something different? >> i don't think so. >> in a research note you write that the days of 5% gdp growth weak spirits during the precrisis years are not likely to return anytime soon, as such heady rates of growth depend on rapid growth in emerging world. and then you use tom's favorite word. >> thin mints? >> mediocre. are we looking at mediocre growth? >> christine lagarde we can thank for that phrase, the new mediocre. 3, 3 .5% growth we're experiencing globally. emerging world is no longer able to grow at 6-8%. we have settled into a new normal for the emerging world at 4.5%. a lot of that is due to china rebalancing towards the growth model away from investment and towards consumption. they can't g

so india china and japan getting a huge benefit here. and yes i know that crude oil is priced in dollars, scott. but in europe it is not like since the drop has happened that the euro has just fallen out of bed. it's been 123 for weeks now. so they are getting the benefit of the lower. >> the bond market is not telling you anything? -- >> -- >> 211en the ten year. >> you're absolutely right to bring it up. i think that is a reflection of the european woes more than anything. and europe, we're going to get to february/march before too long. when the whole sanctions thing started happening with the ukraine. and in terms of gdp i think you see europe growing again by the summer of next your because the comps so are easy. >> when the shocks hit like today. down 200 plus on the dow. all related to oil in my opinion. because of that that means there are stocks getting pulled down because when it flattens for a while we'll see those stocks go higher. >> if our first guest is worried he certainly isn't showing it. not only is tony dwyer an unaba

. >> charlie: what about japan and china? japan is in a recession even though its stock market is going up. >> yeah, this is good news for japan in a number of ways. it imports basically all its natural resources so the price coming down is a boost to its economy, its industry, its balance of payments. in addition, you know, they had the terrible nuclear accident at fukushima and as a result of that they have been importing l&g lick fyed gas and that price hinged the plies of oil. price of oil is coming down, price of natural gas for generating le electricity is cog down and electricity costs are coming down. china which is kind of where you started, i was china ten years ago getting in on the high growth track that really stimulated this whole boom in commodity prices, high prices in oil, but now the premier of china recently said we're moving from high to medium-high gross h and others are saying medium growth, so you don't have china as a dynamo of importing oil. they import 60% of their oil, so for that to come down, thoug