tom: to go from jason furman to dr. thin shows the span of the debate here in davos.a: we talk about oil prices and how the inflation hits the middle class. this is also a big discussion of food insecurity and what that does to the social fabric. tom: i agree. the social issue this time around is food inflation. so much of it is about the constraints that the international community has the shock of war in ukraine and the shock of what we are seeing in the markets worldwide. we will go to the source with barry eichengreen. i can't believe i'm saying this. i think 24 years ago. -- changed the dialogue of economics and it's very evident today in the constraints that nations have amid this food crisis. please stay with us on radio and television across america and worldwide. this is bloomberg. good morning. >> president biden says he will review trump era tariffs imposed on imports from china. that led to a rally in the offshore yuan. the biden administration has maintained most of the tariffs imposed by its predecessor. president biden is seeking to reassure americans a

joining me is chairman jason furman of the national council of economic advisers. nks for coming on. >> thanks for having me. jack: there's not a great track record of hiking rates without recession. investors fear we are headed that way. what's your take? >> there is a lot to be nervous about whether we are talking about global events, domestic events or high inflation. i am not that optimistic about how the fed can land the plane softly but over the next year the economy has a lot of strength so my near-term recession worries just aren't that much higher than usual. jack: how high will powell raise rates to tamp down inflation? >> growth is going to be stronger than the consensus, inflation is higher than the consensus right now. as result i think you will need to raise the fed funds rate to four and higher by the end of next year. jack: that will be a shot to the market, good growth could be a good sign. that is the fed which is the main battleground in this front against inflation. what can the white house do? what would you tell president biden to do? >> presid

let's change it -- take this up with harvard professor jason furman. : you were one of the handful of economists on the democratic side who warned that inflation was going to be a problem and that a some of the policies of the biden administration could exacerbate the problem. you were right. inflation really is now seems to be well set in. how bad is the problem now? how long does this, do we have -- does this last? and what do we do to get out of it? >> i wish i was wrong, but thank you. i think we're going to be with in the for a while. this for a while. not at 8%. some of that really is transitory, some of that really is due to putin's invasion of ukraine but way above the fed's 2% target because a lot of it's gotten embedded in wages which then go to prices, which then go to wages. there's still additional sources of bland in the economy, and we're seeing inflation shift. it's appearing in a big way in services, especially housing. gerry: and wages, as you point out, inflation's at 8%, you say it may come down. wages are rising 5%. workers are seei

jason furman, a harvard university professor and formal -- former council of economic advisors. 5% isl for 30 year. we are going to look at how inflation is now heating retail companies. we are going to talk with jennifer hyman. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is bloomberg markets. you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, active expertise. that is at 3:30 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, here is the first word. u.s. house has approved a 40 billion dollar emergency spending a bill for ukraine. the measure pace for new weapons and provides economic and humanitarian assistance. it is significantly larger than the $33 billion president biden asked for. the bill now heads over to the senate. the u.k. and eu are at it again over the post-brexit deal for northern ireland. liz trust says the latest proposals on trading arrangements won't work. she signaled the u.k. would take unilateral steps if a new agreement cannot be negotiated. the eu is ready to suspend their trade deal if the

. >> brennan: jason furman was chairman of this council of economic advisors under former president presidento obama and he joins us from davos, switzerland, welcome back to "face the nation", you know, it was a rough week, really, for the markets, the treasury secretary kind of spooked people when she started talking about high energy prices, high food prices, having a slowing effect on the economy, ben bernanke the former fed chair also used this word, stagflation, what should american consumers understand is going on? >> look, i woul the ecomy. when you look at the ecom a 3.6t unemployment rate, you see 500,000 jobs being created a month, you see consumer spending quite strongly, so there is a lot of good things going on there. 0 but the market is sending a signal and it is one we should be somewhat concerned about and pay attention to, just no time to manic. >> brennan: but the treasury secretary was also sending a signal by acknowledging that this could be weighing on consumers, which would offset the data points you pointed to there. looking at that what are the odds of a recession? >>

jason furman on what they had been a station should be doing and whether the us is headed for recession

we talked to jason furman about what is driving those numbers. think inflation is mostly demand-driven. when i look at the past six months i look at a surprisingly high level of demand for goods that has been sustained. at the same time, demand for services has written month after month. that roughly matches what we are seeing in these inflation numbers. alix: joining us now is myles bradshaw, j.p. morgan fixed income strategies. it leads to the question we have of the day, which is, does it take a recession to control inflation if it is primarily driven by that strong demand? >> it doesn't necessarily need a recession, but it is unusual central banks are able to pull off a soft landing with a slow demand just enough below trend that it takes away the excess demand in the system. that is the key judgment markets have, whether what the fed has a signals is to raise rates rapidly. whether that will be enough to tame demand, enough to take the heat off inflation. i myself am slightly skeptical. i think you are likely to meet policies to be more rest

tom: i did not hear that from jason furman. lisa: i did not hear that from a lot of individuals we are speaking with here at the world economic forum. that i think is the tension underpinning the people who are bulls and the people who are bears at this moment. tom: the feeling is to the first day here, it is a much more international audience on a percentage basis. fewer americans, maybe fewer from the united kingdom. but even with that, there's a heated conversation we will dive into on economics, on international relations. but we are not going to forget the market turmoil we are in. we will get to matt brill in a moment. it is a quiescent screen was equities up today. i don't know what dow futures are. jon ferro says it does not matter. the yield is up a little bit. dollar comes and weaker. i got brent crude near $113. west texas intermediate, $111. this is to me the most interesting guest of the day. we've got lots of good guests, great guests like joe stiglitz on globalization, but interesting is the bond market. this is

look at larry summers, jason furman, people who worked in the clinton white house and the obama whiteho have been saying for a long time that joe biden was going to try to put forward and he succeeded in doing without a single republican vote is going to cause inflation. one of the reasons that people might not realize is why did he give a speech today? because tomorrow morning at i believe 8:30 a.m. you get the monthly inflation number and it is going to be bad. and they know it, so they tried to get ahead of it. and then the bus ran over him. >> tucker: it is unbelievable. dana perino, the most evenhanded person we know, we wanted to hear from you. thank you. >> great to be here, thank you. >> tucker: by the way, mitch mcconnell of kentucky announced out loud the single most important thing in the world right now is what is happening in ukraine, which most americans say, the single most important thing in my world is the fact that i can afford the things that i could afford last year. our economy is in trouble, no one in washington seems to care at all. putting another $40 billion t

it is the $4 trillion he has added in spending in 2021 doubles warned against by larry summers, jason furmanstrong democratic economists saying it would lead to too high demand in the face of supply constrained. on energy it is all talk. he's doing nothing to unleash american energy and make it easier for companies to get the permitting, building pipelines, get permits for new lng export facilities, and get our production back up to over 13 million barrels a day. kailey: if we could focus on the monetary policy aspect of what you mentioned, having the fed would's job, in theory, if the fed does tighten aggressively, it could lead to a higher unemployment rate, a slowdown in growth, if not an outright recession, something the market in particular is concerned about. would you be happy to see those things if it got inflation under control? rep. hill: inflation is a thief. inflation steals from hard-working families. it makes it very hard and it hurts our seniors who are on a fixed income. this is a result of bad fiscal policies by the biden administration, and keeping interest rates too low fo

this is former economic council chairman jason furman slams democrats and their anti price gouging billsuging bills, because he's got a lot of extra demand. what happens when demand goes up , prices go up. there's an old saying, the cure for high prices is high prices. that's a little bit of a painful thing to deal with, but it's what elicits the additional supply, it brings more producers into the market and it's what brings prices down and we need to let that process work. you try to interfere with it, you're going to make things worse. >> jonathan, quick reaction. >> right, i mean, who wants to go into the oil & gas business now when these people are being tried in front of congress because of price gouging. biden is going exactly the opposite direction instead of deregulating like actually jimmy carter had did, he's more regulating that's not going to do anything to keep prices down whether it's an oil, gas, or any other part of the economy. >> jonathan, carol, thank you so much. i want to bring in now american petroleum institute president and ceo mike sommers. always great to see y

>> jason furman was former president obama's chief economic adviser when also president biden was vice president. furman has gone from adviser to critic. we'll have the details after the break. schedule with safelite,ld? and we'll come to you to fix it. >> tech vo: this customer was enjoying her morning walk. we texted her when we were on our way. she could track us and see exactly when we'd arrive. >> woman: i have a few more minutes. let's go! >> tech vo: we came to her with service that fit her schedule. >> woman: you must be pascal. >> tech: nice to meet you. >> tech vo: we got right to work, with a replacement she could trust. >> tech: we're all set. >> woman: wow. that looks great. >> tech: schedule now at safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ big game today! everybody ready? alexa, ask buick to start my enclave. starting your buick enclave. i just love our new alexa. dad, it's a buick. i love that new alexa smell. it's a buick. we need snacks for the team. alexa, take us to the nearest grocery store. getting directions. alexa will get us there in no ti

judy: thank you very much, jason furman. >> thank you. ♪ judy: in the days other news, president bidens first trip to asia since taking office by addressing the global computer chip shortage that has been exacerbated by the covid pandemic. his five-day visit include stops in south korea and japan all aimed at reinforcing the u.s. commitment to its alliein the face of aggression from china and north korea. we will take a closer look at what is at stake right after the news summary. children and the u.s. just five through 11 began receiving their pfizer covid vaccine booster shot today hours after the cdc gave the final approval. they will be eligible five months after their second vaccine dose. the cdc estimates that so far fewer than dirty percent of the 28 million children in this age bracket have received two doses of a covid vaccine. if federal judge in louisiana ruled today that covid-19 asylum restrictions must continue on the southern u.s. border. the biden administration planned to lift the restrictions on monday. the trump era public health order known as title 42 has allowed o

obama official, larry summers, jason furman, they have all been talking about it, but congressman, thereway out of this. we can fix the economy. the crises are man-made. how we govern ourselves. how would you fix the economy, how would you fix inflation? >> first off this administration believes the way you fix inflation is to spend another five trillion dollars? you can't inflate yourself out of inflation. you can't spend your way out of inflation. stop the spending. even democratic economists said if you pass the two trillion dollar american rescue plan that would lead into unseen inflation in a generation. that is exactly what has happened. stop the spending. grow the economy. unfortunately this administration is shrinking the economy. we saw that last quarter with the gdp falling 1.4%. it is a disaster. every policy they touch they create a crisis. elizabeth: steve, we've got four new states now doing flat taxes. arizona, georgia, iowa, mississippi. but the white house, democrats claim that raising taxes is a fix for inflation. we feel like we've fallen through the mirror and we're o

i came across this tweet from the former council of economic advisers, the chair, jason furman, who wroteis is the inflation story, this is the story to worry about, core services inflation has increased for four straight months. we're getting the much predicted hoped-for reprieve on good price increases, but services matter five times in the computation of the cpi. what does that mean, jason? >> you mean jared. >> what do you think that means, jared? >> it means that there is -- one of the things the president talked about yesterday is that when you think about the causes of the current inflation, certainly the pandemic, he called it the first cause. when the pandemic hit, and this is what my good buddy jason is talking about -- when the pandemic hit, demand for goods over services shot up. so people were buying exercise equipment, they weren't going to restaurants. as that demand rebalances, jason is right, we have to look at the service sector. one of the ways we can help keep inflation down in the service sector and by boosting the supply of labor. as long as we have strong demand for

jason furman, who was the economic council chairman under president obama, said that's a red herring,h to bring inflation down. they just increase the type of shortages that consumers probably hate even more than high prices. there's an old saying the cure for high prices is high prices. that's a little bit of a painful thing to deal with, but it's what elicits the additional supply. it brings more producers into the market, and it's what brings prices down. we need to let that process work. you try to interfere with it, you're going to make things worse. we tried that in the 70s. it was a big failure. we shouldn't be repeating it again. >> jon: that sort of explains itself. i wanted to ask you about something that got you kicked off of facebook. what is the thing you posted that facebook didn't like? >> well, facebook does not like the fact that i have talked about biological males ought not to be competing against biological females. they just get really upset with that or with trying to get the definition of a woman. so they decided that they would censor me once again. but whether

you met jason furman got this right. . i mean, i think moderate w democrats with experience and some weight should be in and this administration and they should replace a lot of the economic policy makers and that's probably true good throughout the cabinet, as you noted in your and your intro.t e but again, i just want to make this point the longer they wait to take action to ward off this inflation, the worse it's going to b be and the worse the recession is going to be . we got to go there working folks are going to suffer. folks i get hammered. i'd like i'd like to avoid the middle class getting damaged and hammered, as you say. and that's, you know, stop. we got to it watching this onge it and change it now they don't want to own it.ei >> this is part of their plan.n, i'm actually believing they're enjoying this moment. larry, i love having you. thank you so much. and of o course democrats have been the leadership is laying waste to ourur urban areas as well. great american cities that we love now they're coddling cri

jason furman, the top economist for president obama pointed to a slight tempering in the wage growth which may auger a slowdown in inflation going forward, and reduce the risk of a wage in price spiral. the president will talk about work to do on inflation. jobs numbers and also the things he's doing as a matter of governance. he's here at a 3-d printing facility to announce a voluntary initiative, try to ease supply chains further by pairing manufacturers with 3-d printers and he's going to make the case for the bipartisan innovation act which is passed both chambers and is about to be negotiated in congress and would spend $50 billion on semi conductors. that's another element of the clogging of the supply chain. he's simply got to put his head down and keep moving forward, and i think that's what we're going to see today. >> michelle, let me come back to you. i spoke with an economics professor earlier this week who said he believes that inflation may have finally hit a peak. it's just a matter of how quickly the numbers start coming down. the fed did raise rates, so that should b

jason furman, the top economic advisor in the obama white house, says wage hikes are falling behind risingces. and nasdaq president adena friedman says a selling decision is much easier than a buying decision for investors who can't see where things are headed. some 2500 political and business leaders from around the world are meeting at that forum in switzerland this week. there are meeting in the alpine ski resort town of davos for the next five days. he said. geopolitical it's just that we are faced with war in ukraine, but also very difficult situations. many other places in the world. it is also climate change. it is also that the global growth is slowing, and we have to avoid that this very weak recovery and ends with and you recession because we have very limited ammunition to fight in your recession. ukrainian president vladimir zelensky is one of the scheduled speakers use calling for maximum sanctions on russia for its invasion of ukraine. event organizers postponed the traditional january meeting date for this year's summit due to covid concerns. there is some encouraging news t

some democrats like larry summers and jason furman, honest democrat economists, have also. but the point is, we have to come up with no new spending at all, period. that is why i have been so emphatic about this. secondary from my concern about the negative economic growth effects we cannot keep doing this. it is a matter of common sense. let me put it to you that way. i know i am a republican, a reagan guy, a trump guy, a conservative, a supply side. i get that. i am not masquerading as anything else. i think what you are seeing in the polls, in the run-up to the midterms, it is a matter of common sense. people do not want to go out this far to the left on everything. whether it is government spending more ending fossil fuels or taking parents out of the classroom more the -- or the open border or the file is -- foreign policy the afghanistan. i mean, this is not a campaign commercial. i am just saying that what you have here is an administration that is departed from traditional democrat concerns. this is why i love joe manchin. i speak as a former democrat. many years ag

some democrats like larry summers and jason furman, honest democrat economists, have also. but the point is, we have to come up with no new spending at all, period. that is why i have been so emphatic about this. secondary from my concern about the negative economic growth effects we cannot keep doing this. it is a matter of common sense. let me put it to you that way. i know i am a republican, a reagan guy, a trump guy, a conservative, a supply side. i get that. i am not masquerading as anything else. i think what you are seeing in the polls, in the run-up to the midterms, it is a matter of common sense. people do not want to go out this far to the left on everything. whether it is government spending more ending fossil fuels or taking parents out of the classroom more the -- or the open border or the file is -- foreign policy the afghanistan. i mean, this is not a campaign commercial. i am just saying that what you have here is an administration that is departed from traditional democrat concerns. this is why i love joe manchin. i speak as a former democrat. many years ag

even top liberal economists, such as larry summers and jason furman, both senior advisers to the obama, warned, warned that democrats' $2 trillion spending binge was completely out of proportion to the remaining output gap. the country didn't need anything like it. summers warned of inflationary pressures of a kind we've not seen in a generation. furman said it's definitely too big for the moment. but democratic politicians didn't listen. here's the senate, a democrat leader said, quote, i do not think the dangers of inflation, at least in the near term, are very real. that was leader schumer last march. so they spent all that money anyway. and sadly for the american people the rest is now history. democrats spent $2 trillion of the american people's money and purchased the worst inflation in more than 40 years. well, actually, that's not all it purchased. sure, the democrats' $2 trillion didn't buy our country anything lasting like a hoover dam or an interstate highway system. nothing like that. but the money had to go someplace, and boy, did it ever. democrats and lots of the media s

jason furman, former obama top economic advisor was saying this whole price gouging thing -- >> i thinkky, these price gouging bills because you know, he you have got a lot of extra demand. what happens when demand goes up, prices go up. there is old saying the cure for high prices is high prices. that is a little bit of a painful thing to deal with. what elicits additional supply. it brings more producers into the market t is what brings prices down. we need to let that process work to try to interfere with i you will make things worse. neil: could all thing demand ebbs prices get high enough we're in slowdown or worse? dave maney, with us, eddie ghabour, key advisors group owner. eddie, begin with you, maybe on the notion we're looking for sinister foils where there are none. what do you think? >> look, this process, and it's very painful what we're going through right now has to reset on its own. the fed can come in to do what they're going to do. federal government can try to do what they're going to do, the damage is already done. the consumer is already struggling. i think you wil

again that was jason furman, not exactly a conservative. while we're talking about all these issue, we're also failing to talk about police week. it is police week. across our nation police departments are struggling to recruit new officers to fill open positions. some cities are facing shortages as high as 17%. at the same time, our nation is in the midst of a crime crisis with homicide rates up 48% compared with just two years ago. the crime crisis is a direct result of president biden and the democrats' efforts to demonize the police, to defund the police, and also pushing for soft on crime policies. house republicans will always stand with our police. we will always invest in our nation's law enforcement. and we will always fight to make our community safer. that's why if we defeat this previous question, i will personally offer an amendment to the rule to immediately consider the communities deserve cops act. madam speaker, i'd also like to ask unanimous consent to insert the text of my amendment into the record along with any ex-train

larry summers, jason furman, others.ing. >> john: they tried to tell him about inflation and they were not listening. >> larry: that is correct. >> john: heading towards what looks like a blood bath in november. look at the results of a new poll, a couple things to put on the screen. it found 58% of americans are having a difficult time affording gas for their car. 52% of americans are finding it difficult to pay their grocery bill. the greatest increase in difficulty was among independent voters. and take a look at this. how many people think the country is on the right track, 18%. 79% say wrong track, 85% of independents say wrong track. larry, i can't remember numbers like that. >> larry: you are right, john. i agree. i'm not poll driven, i'm policy driven. but you know what, the polls have taken on a degree -- president biden is, after all, a long time professional politician. so if you understand the game of professional politics, when the country is moving away from you and away, and radically, rejecting his transf

jason furman, another senior obama advisor has said the far left claims about so-called greedflation are, in fact, quote, unequivocally wrong and confused. both summers and furman were part of the obama administration. the biden administration has also drained our strategic petroleum reserve to its lowest level since 1987 in a frantic effort to lower prices. predictably, this gimmick failed, and now we're much less prepared for a possible future crisis. so you will recall senate democrats gleefully, gleefully blocked republicans from refilling the strategic reserve to the top back in 2020, when oil was at rock bottom prices. we tried to do that. these guys blocked it. we could have filled the reserve to the top and crude was on a clearance sale, but democrats blocked it, and bragged about blocking it. so washington democrats keep finding new ways to fundamentally misunderstand america's energy needs. i note the absence of a quorum. the presiding officer: the clerk will call the roll. quorum call: >> to address the shortage and prevent fraudulent products from entering the marketplace

even top liberal economists such as larry summers and jason furman, both senior advisers to the obama administration, warned, warned that a democrats' $2 trillion spending binge was completely out of proportion to the remaining output gap. the country didn't need anything like it. summers warned of inflationary pressures of a kind we've not seen in a generation. furmand said it's definitely too big percent moment. for the moment. but democratic politicians didn't listen. the senate. the democrat leader said, quote: i do not think the dangers of inflation, at least in the near term, are very real. that was leader schumer last march. so they spent all that money anyway and, sadly for the american people, the rest is now history. democrats spent $2 trillion of the american people's money and purchased the worst inflation in more than 40 years. well, actually, that's not all it purchased. sure, the democrats' $2 trillion didn't buyon our country anythig lasting like a hoover dam or an interstate highway system, nothing like that. but the money had to go someplace and, boy, did it ever. de

even the prominent democratic economist, jason furman, puts the number at 2.5%. if just one, one senate democrat had the courage to vote with republicans in march of 2021, inflation today would be closer to 5% instead of almost 8.5%. steve rattner was a top economic adviser to president obama. he says the democrats' $ 2 trillion disaster will, quote, go down in history as an extraordinary policy mistake that put us way behind the curve on inflation. that's steve rattner, top economic adviser to president obama. everyone knows where this inflation came from, but president biden just can't seem to admit it. he just makes excuses that no one is buying. listen to a democrat political adviser, david axelrod. he said, quote, biden was saying, you know, everything is putin's price tags -- price hikes. inflation is putin's fault. people simply don't believe that, according to david axelrod. they know that we had inflation before this. they know that gas prices were high before this. you can't blame everything in the economy on putin. end quote. david axelrod. so it is th