what does that mean for the fed's agenda joining us is jason furman former chairman of the council of economic advisers fedex is typically an economic barometer. they have realtime data on what everything looks like way before the fed chair, jay powell. do you think this warning ises go to make an impression inside the fed ahead of next week's meeting? >> i do not think this will make an impression on the fed the fed is focused on one aspect of their mandate, that's getting inflation down we had a terrible report earlier this week. inflation is just not going to get down as far as they're concerned unless the labor market loosens somewhat. they're just not going to hold off in anticipation of a recession. >> but if next is right and the economy is even worse than what investors were expecting and especially in the u.s., then that should bring inflation down and it also brings in the risk that the fed will overdo it on the economic side. >> so far the fed has underdone it we just have rates at 2.5% now we're heading to a number that's far from crazy a number around the range of 4, in t

terrific writing is always in your book coming out soon, warmer topic, advisory look at this, jason furmanw said that it is wrong to attack the parents were opposed to school shutdowns and more, the schoolchildren lost two decades of learning from the shutdown and also senator chuck grassley, warns the justice department do not attack the do not censor the fbi whistleblowers raising the red flag about the political bias fbi officials and doing things like stonewalling the doj probe into bided and legal legal next on the evening edit. bubbles bubbles so many bubbles! as an expedia member you earn points on your travels, and that's on top of your airline miles. so you can go and see... or taste or do absolutely nothing with all those bubbles. without ever wondering if you're getting the most out of your trip. because you are. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. [acou

jason furman had a story, to achieve the slowdown we could face unemployment of 6.5% for two years.eing pessimistic? >> the important thing is to ask why did inflation go up? it was because of demand, similar checks, unemployment benefits or did it go up because of supply chains? was it because of covid antivirus? we need to destroy more demand, and push employment up but if on the other hand it is not supply chains maybe we need time to resolve this problem because the supply-chain problem is getting better and a number of working people said look at this, 2 thirds of the increase in inflation was supply-chain issues and only one third was demand so the answer is we don't need to get the employment rate up to 6.5. once transportation costs come down and supply chains get better there's an important debate about the question, 6% is higher, what we have today. jack: where do you come down and where will the fed have to go as it weighs on these things? >> the federal reserve have a forecast that will go up to 11 more than 4%. that is why estimates as high as 65, very controversial bec

jason furman had story or not bad in the wall street journal, saying that in order to achieve that slow down you're talking about we could face unemployment of 6.5% for two years. is he being too pessimistic? well the important part of that discussion is to ask the question. why did inflation go up that inflation go up because of demand because of stimulus checks more unemployment benefits because people had more money, or did inflation go up because of supply chains? in other words, was this because of covid and because of the virus. because if it was the manned then the answer is well, then we need to destroy more domain and the fit needs to destroy demand and therefore pushed unemployment rate off. but if inflation on the other hand would not because of supply chains. well, then maybe we just need time to resolve this problem because the supply chain problems already getting better, and the fed has already written a number of working papers that look at this and there was a fit people from the san francisco fit that said about two thirds of the increase in inflation was because of su

. >> does that get you to the jason furman analysis for thinking 6 1/2 unemployment for two years? high to me but jason was the one who stepped in on the fiscal side and said on the student loan, it was like pouring gasoline on the fire, which is similar to what we're doing in the uk. >> that is kind of surprising. he probably wouldn't like it that you said it's surprising. >> you have democrat, democrat he was quite clear >> i understand. >> i give him credit for saying that. >> i do too. thanks, greg great to see you. >> nice to be back here. >>> when we come back, carson block of muddy waters research will join us in just a little bit on his read on the markets and the fed. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year did ikea open its first store in the united states the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues our internet isn't ideal... my dad made the brilliant move to get us t-mobile home internet. oh... but everybody's online during the day so we lose speeds. we've become... ...nocturnal. well... i'm up. c'mon kids. thi

that from obama economic advisor jason furman. another former obama economic advisor noted, quote, student loan debt relief is spending that raises demand and increases inflation. you will also tend to be inflationary by raising tuitions, end quote. well, there are even some current democrat members of congress that have expressed their concerns about the president's reckless student loan decision, and the president of the committee for responsible federal budget, which i mentioned, is where president biden's very own treasury secretary once served on the board, issued a scathing statement in which she said, and i quote, this announcement is gallingly reckless. with a national debt approaching record levels and inflation surging, it will make both worse. it would do nothing to actually make education more affordable. if anything, this policy will drive up tuition costs while raising prices on a variety of other goods and services for ordinary americans, end quote. again, from the committee for a responsible federal budget, which i

lockdowns and shutdowns so even jason furman saying that. >> exactly. there are common sense democrats out there thankfully but still not enough for we allow randi weingarten to stay in the position she is which is educating our children. liz: thanks for joining us, i'm elizabeth shalit, thank you for watching, join us again tomorrow night. ♪ kennedy: the deeper you dig the master gets, teachers unit digging up dirt on parents who just wanted to reopen schools for their kids so when do we get the crooks the all heico i think it's about time. according to newly released e-mails from hyatt the pandemic, one of the most powerful teachers unions in california targeting parents they considered political enemies. moms and dads wanted the kids back in classroom were painted as political villains after a parent association in san diego successfully sued the state to reopen classrooms. that angered the union so they set it snooping into the ideological meaning of parents but the problem is all they were doing opposition research, somebody accidentally e-mailed a

than people are expected for you we talked about this earlier today, there's a column out from jason furmaniser to the obama administration he said we could be looking at 6.5% unemployment for a couple years before the fed's able to get inflation back to 2% or 3% does that change your outlook for any of this, noah? or you really have a much longer timeline three to five years is a long time to wait >> i certainly have a longer time horizon i will remind everyone where inflation was last year and how everything that was coming was supposed to be transitory, and now we're in a prolonged struggle and everyone's turned themselves into paul volker. the reality is prices have come down significantly i wouldn't be surprised that the year on year numbers turn negative we've seen collapse in a lot of things and supply chains are beginning to ease. i think the fed doesn't want to make the mistakes of the 1970s most of the fed members were in their 20s in the '70s. they weren't around in the '50s, in the most war, post stimulus world war ii era and the '40s and '50s where inflation was much more volat

we have jason furman, how many of you have ever seen jason furman say a single nice thing about a republican? of course not. he makes his living berating those of us on the right and basically defending democrat policies. when the math has gotten so ugly he can no longer defend what democrats have done to people in this country, the medium c.p.i. which excludes all the marge changes in either direction and is a better predictor by labor markets, this is important trying to get here. jason furman is trying to help you understand that when you're busting through a 9 1/2% annual rate in august, the single highest monthly print in the data sets which started in 1983. i don't mean this to be disjointed, i want it to sort of become crisp. when the core of inflation is functionally higher than any time it's been published since 1983, how old were you in 1983? do you remember the level of misery? congratulations. this is what the policies tharnd place did. and if you get a clown that's trying to say, oh, it's ukraine, it's this or that. it's not. this stuff was in the futures market long before. do

. >>> still to come this morning, former white house economist jason furman joins us to talk about the england and the risk of a recession. that's next. >>> don't miss our exclusive interview with cleveland fed president loretta mester stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing. (vo) with their verizon private 5g network, associated british ports can now precisely orchestrate nearly 600,000 vehicles passing through their uk port every year. don't just connect your business. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) make it even smarter. we call this enterprise intelligence. >>> we're pro

liz: obama's topic said it's wrong to attack people against lockdowns and shutdowns so even jason furmanbut still not enough for we allow randi weingarten to stay in the position she is which is educating our children. liz: thanks for joining us, i'm elizabeth shalit, thank you for watching, join us again tomorrow night. ♪ kennedy: the deeper you dig the master gets, teachers unit digging up dirt on parents who just wanted to reopen schools for their kids so when do we get the crooks the all heico i think it's about time. according to newly released e-mails from hyatt the pandemic, one of the most powerful teachers unions in california targeting parents they considered political enemies. moms and dad

. >> brian cheung, jason furman, we appreciate you both being here.a as it brushes by bermuda tonight. we are on the island as it prepares for the storm. >>> plus fire, chants and marches in the streets. the death of a 22-year-old woman arrested by iran's morality police has sparked a movement not seen there since the islamic republic's inception in 1979. our report on the ground from tehran is next. m tehran is next announcer: type 2 diabetes? discover the power of 3 in the ozempic® tri-zone. in my ozempic® tri-zone, i lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. announcer: ozempic® provides powerful a1c reduction. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. and you may lose weight. adults lost up to 14 pounds. ozempic® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. don't share needles or pens, or reuse needles. don't take ozempic® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or

this is what larry summers saw., this is what jason furman, the chair fon saw, tr. obama said, this is what what i've seen. and i was at the jackson hole conference where jay powell sort of scared markets and said, look, i'm seriouous this time. -- wh and i think heer is e. but at the jackson hole conference, you know, it was scd absolutely clear because there was like a very sound academic policy tha paper presented that it was biden's policies that caused inflation to lift off. and again, can you imagine tha they had six percent growthherie that they because we had basically had the covid ba i regret in t the past, being part of the team that did that.t but we but we had economic policiesck u that got us back up and going. and that's why, you know, we had two quarters of six percentr growth, which is a really high growth number. when biden took office . t now here we're looking attive q probably the third negative quarter in a rowuart and the few tightening while that's happening. and so there's really no saying how bad thiss is going to be , especially if there's

that comparison to reagan just mentioned, jason furman, a former 0bama adviser, referenced that, theke, that policy back in the 1980s of deregulation, but also this increased spending and tax cuts, and saying while he hopes they do not have to reverse policy in a couple of years, no sign of that at this point, we have got the uk treasury secretary doubling down and saying perhaps they will be more majors coming in the weeks ahead. certainly not a sign of a u—turn at this point. not a sign of a u-turn at this oint. ~ . ., ., ., ~ point. 0k, michelle, for now, thank ou ve point. 0k, michelle, for now, thank you very much _ point. 0k, michelle, for now, thank you very much indeed. _ fiona cincotta is a senior market analyst at city index trading group. at this time, last friday, wasn't it, only a few days ago, you were saying this is all very risky after kwasi kwarteng's statement. you are notjoking. ida. kwasi kwarteng's statement. you are not 'okin. ., ., ., kwasi kwarteng's statement. you are not'okinu. ., ., ., ., ., not joking. no, not at all, and we have really _ not joking. no, n

former obama economic adviser jason furman called this gasoline on the inflation-year fire that is already burning. this is obama's economic adviser called it reckless. former obama and clinton economic adviser larry summers said student loan debt relief increases inflation. it will also tend to raise tuition. raise tuition. is that what the democrats are for? hey, let's raise tuition. we're for that. that's what larry summers says is going to happen as a result of these positions by the democrats in this chamber and the white house. joe biden continues to make life more expensive, more unaffordable, and more painful for american families. to bring down costs republicans propose doing the exact opposite of what the democrats are doing today. we need to produce more and spend less. we need to produce more, lots of things. energy is part of it. we need to unleash american energy. we need to lower costs all across the country by producing more american energy right here in the united states. not going hat in hand to saudi arabia. not going hat in hand as joe biden did just a year ago to russi

jason furman, my predecessor, doing a lot of thoughtful nonpartisan stuff lately hannah great piece iney have to accept the employment rate. inflation has been so out of control. that is the kind of stuff the fed is seeing. there was an academic paper, where somebody basically said the reason inflation is out of control is everyone has decided there's not going to be any deficit reduction so feds have to monetize the debt and that is why markets have gone crazy so the point is everyone serious about this, we know it is going to be painful at times. inflation is going to get worse and that is something powell said. she is not signaling a change in policy. as you approach an election it is common for americans to go but nervous and nancy. i'm nervous about markets between now and november because the normal political volatility is likely to start kicking in and that will happen when markets are learning they will raise rates faster than that. neil: they seem to be waiting but this great pivot, i don't see any pivot. always good having you and thank you for confirming that. kevin, always

president obama's former economic adviser sees trouble ahead, jason furman saying a lot of things to bring down inflation have happened. to the degree energy prices have passed to core, we should be seeing the reverse. i am skeptical of magnitude, labor force returning, and the white house has to stop the spending. tom cotton says biden should transfer the plan to cancel the loan debt to taxpayers, but the president is defending the spending as recently as yesterday. >> and by the way, when you hear your republican friends or anybody else tell you boy, they are spending a lot of money, guess what, we cut the deficit this year by over $1 trillion this year. >> the committee for responsible federal budget calls that a moot point because the student loan debt cancellation wipes out more than double the amount of deficit savings from the inflation reduction act that they are celebrating here today. john. >> john: nobody wants to talk about that either, all right. jacqui heinrich, thanks. sandra. >> sandra: bring back in democratic congresswoman debbie dingle, we are going to get back to

. >> do i hear -- >> that's what jason furman said using one model he ran it would take two years ofent to get back to 3.5%. >> i think roger ferguson would be saying that. >> roger has been saying for a while it's gone up there was a lot of hope in the market, a lot of hopes that inflation would be peaking, and that wasn't the case. >> hopium. >> hopiumcontin? >> yeah. >>> christina, let's talk through because it's been tough for the chips for a couple of weeks at least, if not longer than that. this was just another big hit yesterday too. >> yeah, yeah. the chips were the biggest drag on the dow, but -- or i should say on the nasdaq. the slowdown you're referring to is primarily in consumer elect electronics, and that's been no surprise we've talked about it for the past couple of months. it signals the weakness might be spreading across enterprise and model. western digital, for example, not only pointing that memory and storage prices have deteriorated in recent weeks but the china market is cold across all segments. that caution echoes a recent warning from seagate on softening

this is what we've been hearing about from jason furman and others what do you think about on that frontumbers and how the prices have changed over the last month and year, encouraging if you look month to month still very good. i would say the dynamics in the rails/labor industry are distinct you're talking about an industry that has operated at come prablt levels that has reduced the labor force 1/3. the productivity has gone up extraordinarily. we've made the system not as resilient as it could be and there's stress on workers not only on pay and quality of life that means the economics within this industry are distinct, so are the laws you look at the rail labor act, that's something that is an artifact of this in particular m the pay would look big on the outside, but the quality of life is difficult also truck drivers find safe and secure parking fundamental part of their being able to come to work is a challenge. yesterday we announced the intra grants including truck parking projects in florida and tennessee. i think there's more where that came from. flight attendants, truck dri

. >> austin, just referencing some of the stuff rick was saying and jason furman, he's kind of like-mindedoan action, austin? have we spent too much is that part of what's going into this right now and has troubled you >> that's not going in this. as you know, i wasn't a big fan of blanket debt forgiveness of that form, but that the amount of money that goes in as stimulus from a 10-year debt forgiveness program is very small in this year it's totally confused to say that the government spending is going up government spending is all compared to last year. it's actually shrinking by almost $2 trillion, the biggest drop in the deficit that we've ever had that's not what's driving these numbers. i couldn't tell what the month-to-month inflation in the core was it was worse than expected if the year over year was up more than expected, but that's the thing that the fed is looking at that's the only new information on the core, and if that's not coming down, i think -- forget about 75 basis points, that means we're going to be on a path that the fed is going to be raising rates a lot, not just

you have support from jason furman of the obama administration, jordan peterson, steven pinker. you did something right to get that diverse group of people to agree on your book, correct? >> that was marian. marian knows all those guys. i think what they were able to see is look, you have this framework. looking at things with time prices instead of money prices reveals a completely different picture of what is happening. so we have this framework. then we go out and apply it to actual data and see a different world. it is like a telescope almost. it is like once you have this instrument, this way of looking at things, you see a completely different world. the world we see when we look at time prices says we are experiencing superabundance where we do not see that population will increase and make us run out of resources. we will become more abundant. you don't see an increase in population that will cause these other kinds of -- i mean, recently we have heard about elon musk versus the new mall susie ends. -- new malthusians. thomas mall this wrote this --malthus wrote this boo