we'll talk about it off with jason furman and jason, a pair of jason's.day through friday 4:00 p.m. right here on foxbusiness. for some reason you can't make it, text her favorite 9-year-old and she will show you how to dvr the show and you will never miss a trump trial or conduct. i am kudlow. we'll be right back. ♪ nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years. when i have customers come in and ask for something for memory, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's safe and effective. does not require a prescription. and i've been taking it quite a while myself and i know it works. and i love it when the customers come back in and tell me, "david, that really works so good for me." makes my day. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. i was only 23 when i was first diagnosed with non-melanoma skin cancer. 40 years later, i've had almost 20 mohs surgeries. i had just accepted that the pain and the scars were going to be part of my life. but when i was diagnosed with two basal cells on my face, i became determi

you know jason furman, mike falkander. i know jason furman very well, honest guy.linton economist, obama economist. he was out, i think he said on cnbc or some station, he said that if you can sell all these student loans, the point is it will boost consumer demand, which will cause higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher mortgage rates. thought on that, mr. falkander? >> yeah, i mean what jason is fuhrman is doing demonstrating there is still a part of the democratic party has not bought into this far heft approach towards government and wants to have credibility after joe biden is shown the exit because he and larry summers were have been out this the entire time saying if you throw this much money into the economy you will get inflation. larry, let's remember, i mentioned this before, but larry summers came out recently and said, if you inchewed mortgage interest payments and car loan payments that the inflation rate under joe biden would not have peaked at nine it would peak at 18. if you go to the traditional way, the way we measured inflation back

according to harvard economist jason furman. the six-month line has been coming down, the blue line. you see this mountainous range of inflation has been sticky. of course, still above that level of 2%. let's take a look at the treasury yields. the two-year in particular has been bumping back up against that 5% level after a steep drawdown in yields earlier this year. we have not seen the level we have seen. we have met resistance and have not gotten there this week and there are questions among some in the market on whether we can even move a little higher than that. this week we heard from the cantor fitzgerald ceo who gave his take on when the fed would cut. >> i think right before the election, not that the fed is involved in elections, but september? i'm thinking september and it is not really to move the economy, it is to show off a little bit, help a little bit, the guy who was employing it today. maybe he will give you your job again if he gets elected. it can't hurt. i think september, one cut, just showing off. sonali:

joining us right now is former council of economic advisers chairman jason furman, he is a professor ool of government. jason, we were reading your tweets, because you were pretty active tweeter yesterday, we were reading -- or xer, i this say, we were reading your xs as you were doing this real time on your reaction to what happened with the cpi number. you're of the opinion now that there is basically no way they can cut anytime soon. >> yeah, look, becky, i allowed myself to get optimistic a couple of months ago. but, you know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. we now had three months in a row of prints coming in above just about what everyone expected. it is time to change the way we think about things going forward. the market has done that for june. but, you know, continues to hold out hope. i'd love the fed to be in a position to cut rates later this year, but the data is just not close to being there at least yet. >> what's so concerning to you on the inflation numbers? we have a lot of people who will look at it and be able to argue it away. we just had

sonali: i want to pull up this comment from jason furman about a day ago.e said a huge asymmetric uncertainty is a problem. he said if he's too optimistic and inflation is 3%, we are in a world of hurt and they need to tighten more. if it is more like 2% refined and there is no reason to worry unless it fell below one point 5%. i'm curious how you would react to that? >> i would frame our world of hurt -- the sectors that are still problems. there is an interesting study that looks at the categories. i think we absolutely have to go under the hood to figure out the inflation dynamics. we are down to categories that are not interest rate sensitive. if we see a pickup in those sectors, we are in a world of hurt. what rate increase are you going to do that will get all of these people to move back home with mom and dad and get rent down? what will it take to get these insurance structural changes done more quickly? we are in a place where the fed's tools, they can do it, they can destroy enough demand in other places. but that is where the hurt comes in. i don

jason furman, president obama's chair of economic advisors he couldn't resist taking a shot at paul krugmangher on a three month basis. you can see september, 2020, took a victory lap. team transitory for the win. he points out we're up 3.5% on a 3 month basis. charles: ouch a little infighting there. kelly, thank you so much. jpmorgan asset management fixed kelsey berro, white house chief economist, and seb, joe lavorgna. wall street always celebrates, americans are spending well, they're spending more. the savings well are running dry. red yard rates are through the roof. answers are through the roof. how does the federal reserve view this? is this good news, that spending is through the roof even though at the expense of savings, or is sitting more ominous? >> so i don't think that the fed is particularly concerned right now. that's because the consumer is spending bawls they're fully employed. so ultimately the speed limit for consumption is going to be income growth. and income growth will be generated because we're in a very tight labor market which we will see again on friday. we're

barclays says one, and we even heard from not one, but two former obama economist larry summers and jason furmanxt move from the fed is not a rate cut. it could actually be a rate hike. now, too early to actually forecast that. but it speaks volumes that we're even talking talking about rate hikes right now. >> yeah. and i know you're reporting that moody's chief economist has said that gas prices could be the big mover here, can create real problems for the economy as well. we will see this is not good news on inflation. had he can thank you so much, sir? >> all right. this morning, donald trump failing in his latest bid to derail his criminal trial here in new york for the third time, it just three days a new york appeals court judge denied his request to delay the trial. it's going to start on monday unless something really unexpected happens. cnn senior crime adjusted reporter caitlin poland's is with us now. so i mean, there are a couple of days to go, actually four until monday. so what next >> well, that's out. we'll have to see what the next couple of days bring, but what we saw monday,

as strong as they are, and at some point before the year is up we could get an employment -- >> jason furman will be cuts from the fed, it won't be a function of inflation. it will be a function of employment >> yes, i agree with jason i've argued that all along inflation has come down but it stopped the last few months which is unsettling and will need a handful of months before they feel it is on the lower trajectory that gets us to the thick of the convention season. i hear what people say politically. but i don't think the fed wants to do anything in july and it will be harder in september. i agree with jason if the payroll data and the unemployment rate goes meaningfully above 4%, the fed will cut the question is does that happen that's sort of the debate. >> kashkari said he sees cuts because of the political cycle in part and williams said, you know, it's not the base case scenario but if the data bears it out we're ready to hike rates. >> we came in thinking it would be weak and running massive deficits it's clear the economy has held up reasonably well and pushed our cuts out so now

. >> is we'veven heard from to former obama officials, larr summers and jason furman. they've suggested briana that next move from the fed might not be a rate cut. it could be a rate hike oh, my lord yes. that child on the playground is not sting. matt egan. so we're going to have to figure something out here, matt, thk you for that we appreciate it for u >> from trump's money man to rikers inmates today, alan weisselberg walked out of a new york courtroom in handcuffs headed for rikers isnd aer a judgsentenced him to fiv mohs for perjuryweisselberg is the former chief financl officer for the trump organization, and he admitted that he lied during a deposition in the new york civil fraud case against donald trump and his co-defendants. that's the one with the 464 million judgment weisselberg gave false testimony specifically about the size of trump's apartment, triplex, and he's already served time in 2022 for tax fraud let's talk about this further with john dn. he's former white house counsel for president nixon he actually testified against prident nixon and the wat

joining us right now is former council of economic advisers chairman jason furman.essor at harvard's kennedy school of goof government, we should point out you were in your position in a democratic administration, so you were speaking out against what a democratic administration is proposing to do right now what are your problems with it >> look, we have unsustainable debt we have high mortgage rates. we have an economy that has not landed softly. this is a plan that we have only heard estimates for part of the cost of it but when you take the plan as a whole, it is likely to be 250 to $750 billion is that a quantitatively huge contributor to the problems i cited? no is it moving in the wrong direction on all of them yes, it is and we shouldn't be doing that right now. >> i have seen arguments out there that say, hey, what are you talking about that this costs anybody any money. all it is is we just say, poof, it goes away, nobody has to pay this and it doesn't result in anything >> yeah. i mean, there is, like, all sorts of magic fairy dust, pixy dust arguments out

on "squawk box" this morning, jason furman summing up the middle ground. >> what we're seeing in thenoise and post pandemic gyrations. what we're seeing when we're reading about what's happening in a.i., the developments in company, the developments in the technology, i think that's real. it's just not in the data yet. >> cutting to the chase what's it mean for the fed? higher productivity can mean lower for longer because it's a positive supply shot, add f factories and workers without adding either. that means a higher short term rate until the positive effecteds take hold, guys. >> it seems clear it's going to mean more demand for capital, doesn't it, steve? we talk about it all the time, just the data centers alone not to mention powering them is an enormous amount of capital. >> if you looked at the durable goods report, kind of on the negative side. but year over year, new orders for computers and computer products have been up strong double digits for a long time now. i don't think, david, that the stuff bought then maybe just barely showing up in the productivity data now. bu

if you have somebody who served a democratic administration looking at this and saying jason furman is a numbers guy who looks at the numbers and says this doesn't make sense. >> you are right. susan collins, the boston fed president, gave an interesting talk yesterday. she said the urgency to cut rates has gone down. she wasn't pointing to the inflation numbers. chef she said at the beginning of the year you could paint a picture of the labor market which had some cracks in it. you don't see that right now. the data is better this year. she pointed to the financial conditions which has eased. she said that maybe interest rast rate policy is only moderately restri restrictive. if the labor market is better than you thought it would be, then the case to cut rates has receded. that is why you see all of the economists pushing back when we start the cuts and how many you are likely to get this year. all conditioned on the economy continuing to run at a solid pace here. >> nick, thank you for talking this through with us. we watch it closely. >> thank you, becky. >>> let's get to leslie pi

jason furman an exist at harvard is now saying and i think a lot of folks on wall street are listening were to lower interest rates later in the year it wouldn't be a sign about inflation, it would be a sign about unemployment, meaning that the employment picture would be weaker than you would want. so, you know, it sort of depends on what everybody is really rooting for. i don't think you want to be rooting for a slowing economy and it's going to probably take a slowing economy for interest rates to come down anytime soon. >> you know, andrew, i mean, we keep waiting for the soft landing. do you know what, the jet doesn't want to land. i mean, the economy just keeping roaring and they keep trying to get it to land, it keeps going. very interesting market reaction yesterday, after the announcement i was expecting everything to plummet. i'm wondering had wall street already -- had they already factored this in? you and i had talked about it before, he went going to get to the two or three cuts when you have inflation running above 3%, the economy is still hot. and it looks like early --