joining us in studio, jason schenker. you're not talking about the last recession, jason. >> i'm not. >> you're talking about the coming recession. >> that's right. >> which is coming? >> by the end of this year or in 2017. >> given that we sort of papered over the cracks ahead of the last one s it going to be much worse? >> we see something more mild. in the last recession, it was an overextension of credit to the consumer. this time we see some of it being the overextension of credit in certain spaces, oil and gas being one of those. also, the extremely strong dollar we've had. while other currencies are racing to the bottom, the dollar continues to rise. the fed is still talking about rate hikes. then of course that's also spilled over into manufacturing, which is quite weak. five months of contraction now in the ism. those things are all disconcerting and highlight a much bigger probability. >> but jason, the data has looked better. at least over the last week or two. there are some signs that manufacturing may be bot