jay bryson joins us. thanks for coming on the program on this new year's day. ind of effects are you expecting the pandemic to have on the economy as we get into 2022? jay: you know, matt, if you look at a year ago when cases were spiking, we had a pretty weak first quarter. we could be setting up for the same thing here. there has been a little bit of a pullback in travel, a pullback in terms of people going to restaurants. all that said, i wouldn't expect a complete downturn or anything coming from those, more of a little speedbump in the road as people get more cautious. it seems like most of us continue to go about our daily lives and in general, consumer spending should hold up well. matt: how does inflation look to you as we go into 2022? is it going to come back down or are we going to see inflation hold or rise? jay: in the near term, i wouldn't be surprised if you do see a seven handle in terms of the overall rate of cpi inflation among the euro. you talked about the pandemic, this is only going to make the supply chain problems a little bit worse over

joining us is jay bryson jay, good to see you today we've set this up as if the market's rising despiteps the market is saying it was more or less expected month to month and doesn't change what we expect the fed will be up to and messaging next week. >> yeah. i think that's right i think the market breathes a sigh of relief today it was on expectations and could have been a worse number, as well going into the fed meeting i think they accelerate the race of taper they pair it back. i think they take it to 15 and 7.5 next week. i think the market is priced for that >> and then, what about the jove all inflation trend? this statistical cli doesn't seem likely to moderate into -- maybe the next quarter of next year do we shrug that off do you think it will go back somewhere toward longer term trend? >> if you look at the year over year comps it is harder into the new year and should start to see the year over year rate come down what's interesting and what i think the market will react to is we continuing to get .7, .8 on the headline? if so then that year over year rate may recede somewh