julia: jay powell the man -- julia: jay powell the man at the moment.ar as hikes this year, three, some concerned if he indicates 4. the dot plot will very much be in focus. we have seen a more hawkish by price around 77 basis points for 2018 as well. what will that be after we get the statement and after the press conference? strength to the canadian dollar, to mexico, hence perhaps the united states is softening their position as far and the content requirements are concerned. if that is the case, this will be a breakthrough for nafta negotiations. francine: this is what i am looking at. we are looking at treasuries and we will be all over that for the next 15, 25 hours. this is the average and i say it's the average two-year yield china, u.s.,es, u.k., euro area, and japan. throughy, you can see the chart and we will push it on our social media platforms, for radio listeners, good morning to you. the average is at least 2% or line --% and the dotted there with me, radio, we are trying to explain, it is significantly below where it is now and that's t

put it in context of how you think this particular fed chair and jay powell will go down in terms ofommunication skills against everybody else that you've seen. >> yeah. i tried to count yesterday i think there's been 28 press conferences by federal reserve chairmen i think i've been to all of them the first thing i noticed when i looked at my watch it was 3:15 when they were done. i thought the previous chairs took the full hour then i said to myself, hey, has he answered as many questions? i looked around the room at my colleagues, all the people who usually get to ask questions did. he answered as many but maybe more questions and did it succinctly didn't give us a lot of theory pretty straightforward it will be easy for those in the markets and maybe those not in the market to understand what powell is saying that's a plus. i think eventually he will sometimes have to talk more theoretically and field more theoretical questions. he didn't have to now. that could be something that is a challenge for him. but i thought he did a good job. he's obviously a smart guy he's been a gover

jay powell will deliver day two of his semiannual monetary policy report.s time he'll appear before the senate banking committee beginning at 10:00 a.m >>> a lot of economic data on the docket weekly jobless claims, personal income, construction spending. >>> and the auto sector in focus. car manufacturers will report monthly sales throughout the morning. >>> the big question is does jay powell see the need to modify or slightly walk back this perceived hawkishness he had a couple days ago. it's not clear he would want to do that. besides that, the ism number will be interesting. you had a bit of a soft patch in some of the macro data. >> something to watch. mike, fun hour with you. that's it for "worldwide exchange." look at the futures, we are lower on the first day of mah.rc "squawk box" is next >>> good morning for the bulls, good riddance to february the dow fell more than 4% in the month snapping the longest winning streak in 59 years. >>> in earnings news, get ready for today's big retail reports we have kohl's, best buy, nordstrom and the gap. >>> a

>> the biggest concern is jay powell is new.e don't know exactly how he handles himself, and he is a straight shooter and answers questions honestly and uses plain english. when he was up on capitol hill a few weeks ago, the street looks like it's at 3, what gets you to 4. he answered the question the market got unravelled, because he said if the economy picks up, forecasts pick up, we see increasing inflation, the market is used to a more nuanced fed chair that uses oblique language i think we'll get used to this also a press conference after a fed meeting is much easier than answering people on capitol hill the press conference is more germane to what his role is. >> the political posturing that happens and questioning on capitol hill >> right >> when we're talking about inflation, how much attention are we likely to see paid to the role of inflation and the broader economy and what will we hear from jay powell >> that's the hard part. employment is looking good there's slack in the employment, but we can point to the fact tha

i think jay powell is extremely conscious of this. worried about the economy running too hot, we have a trade war coming. is that going to be the push back against the progrowth tax cuts? tom: it could be. said, a trade war is never a good thing. clearly in parts of the world, it will have more than impact. concerns onhere are .n export led economy exports are up to 45% in germany. this is more of a problem for parts outside the u.s. matt: what do you think about libor rates?g every day i see it at the top of rea storiesd.st investors, markets are concerned about it, and typically a jump in the short term financing , even agnifies problems crisis. tom: that tightening in policy does signify the potential for a slowdown ahead. that is what we are facing. it is a tricky balance that jay powell faces today in his comments. he needs to be seen on top of the situation. the economynot let run away with itself. at the same time, he needs to not scare the horses in terms of the markets. anna: we are getting some news from shell. saying 67 bil

>> i think the market is getting to know jay powell a little bit.irst i will be looking for how the market reacts. we want signs that economic growth is still good and a guidepost. people are still trying to figure out exactly what -- >> i think we lost your mic. in the meantime, steve grasso? >> to pick up where lori left off you want to see if he's thinking three or four for 2018. we have heard him sound hawkish, dovish we want to see what we get from jay powell today do we get a tax reform analysis that we thinks will be a lot less hawkish than he once thought? does he think productivity will ramp up? where is inflation the mysterious inflation number, is he still perplexed by that? >> we have the mic situation ironed out lori >> i think markets are still trying to figure out if they trust this guy they want to know there is not a policy error, that they are going to move at a measured pace, not stifle growth. at the beginning of the year people said will they move too far, too fast. people are focused on growth they want to see you maintain the

coming up, more on the fed chairman jay powell fomc debuted. features flat. dollar a little softer into the meeting. we'll discuss the markets we will be watching with michelle meyer's. before we get to break, headlines and the bloomberg european capital markets for. barclays ceo jeff bailey being interviewed and deutsche bank the deputy ceo is also there. making some headline saying we are making progress in the investment banking and it is focusing on returning capital to shareholders and not taking longer than they thought for the banks revamp. they are considering buybacks as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ caitlin: bayer has cleared a big hurdle for $66 billion takeover of monsanto. the european union has given its ok for the deal. one condition, bayer have to sell its seed, pesticide and agriculture to dss. annualas increased its profit forecast for the second year in a row --second quarter in a row. fedex and its rival ups are cashing in on higher demand caused by rising online buying but there challenges that deliveries to holmes are less profitable -- h

what can jay powell say today that would move the currency?hort-term as a bottom so i don't think it's that big of a deal. we see in the europe and the pound as of late. some folks really like it, but i think it's not a really good idea especially not when the raise rates. you know you can do to make a dollar stronger right away as raise rates. he has to give their verbiage to make folks think they will raise and strengthen the dollar. lauren: scott shellady, thank you for joining us. we say good morning to maria bartiromo, mourning said maria. >> good morning, lauren. even a few minutes. thanks for joining us. i maria bartiromo. 6:00 a.m. on the east coast. the winning streak snapped. the dow industrials on a sour note folly nearly 400 points. the worst month since january january 2016, snapping a 10 month winning streak for both indices, the longest since 1959. features this morning, let's take a look at what's happening right now at the declines continuing. one quarter 1%. the s&p 500 for point s&p 500 for a point by the nasdaq weaker by fo

learnvestors, what did we or what did investors learned from the testimony by jay powell? rman powell is upbeat about the economy and he thinks he will be able to raise interest rates this year for a good reason, he is catching up with excess demand. joe: earlier in the show we were talking to tim duy who said he picked up a tonal change with powell and more concern about avoidance of overheating. perhaps less of a willingness to have an asymmetrical 2% target. it is mostly continuation. jay powell is delivering the notcy of janet yellen, 2.0, 1.0. janet yellen agreed in principle to re-normalize and tried to delay as often as she could. 2017, jay powell will do the same thing. it was tightening and then a balance sheet action. there was a style difference, though. that is jay powell was willing to express his own view more distinctly. a couple of times he said this makes me more confident. the way i read the data, this is what is going to happen. he is distancing himself from the official communication. scarlet: why is that significant? doesn't mean he's trying to convince

we look ahead to jay powell and the trade concerns.n post reporting we could see washington hit by the u.s. tariffs of up to $60 billion by as early as friday, there's certainly a lot weighing on investors. we have to look ahead to what is going on in china as well. we had to hear from president xi the annuallowed by press conference. let's take a look at how markets are right now. we are seeing red on the screen. new zealand, -- like this.ooking shares down 0.5%. the market open in tokyo, seoul, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yvonne: 8 a.m. here in hong kong, live from bloomberg's asian headquarters, i am yvonne man. welcome. facebook has been embroiled in scandal after cambridge and america was accused of meddling in the elections. fundtecheigh w may again.weigh on tap once betty: trade tariffs and trump talking about protectionism will be tempering talks as economic leaders meet for the g20 talks. president xi jinping tightening his grip on china. ♪ yvonne: betty, first and was apple, now facebook. over all, sentiment when it com

coming up we dive into jay powell's first fed meeting.ribe reminder to to our weekly podcast on itunes and it is called what you miss. our favorite interviews of the week. you can listen to them on audio and it is the perfect way to spend your weekend. scarlet: i think hans is a confederate this week. this is bloomberg. ♪ julie: let's return to the fed meeting, this time to the charts it joining us is matt, our chart master here. let's talk about what happens next. what people wanted to know from today's meeting from the press conference. judging by the first chart, was the read on that? wethe take away is that what got from jay powell today was a little more dovish than expected. you can see here we have the white line showing the probability of three plate hikes in 2018 based on futures. the blue line shows the probability of marked by tags, and that four or more number has been coming up. earlier today it was all the way up to 33 and 35% come it was close to becoming the model expectation for markets. jaycan see after death powell pres

we wait to hear from jay powell what he says about inflation.he truth is three rate hikes this year, three rate hikes next year. inflation is higher, what we've been expecting. lauren: nicole, you said it well, it was baked into the cake. as we await fed chair jerome powell to address the news media in the first news conference as head of the fed any minute now, we're waiting for that to get underway. we'll bring back the panel. gary johnson, gary kaltbaum, keith fitz-gerald, mark luschini. thanks for sticking around. keith, i feel i owe you a question. what do you think mr. powell is the best thing he could say it assuage the market would be? >> one of the single most important things he can do rather than say to adopt the same measured tone and approach that he did when we saw him earlier. the single biggest problem for a fed chairman they're danged if they do, danged in they don't. here is the thing, comes off, consistent, knowledgeable, measured in his approach, traders will sit and listen and take perspective from that. perspective leads to

we have the ec, we have jay powell who we are hoping to have a good press conference. that's a one-two punch and maybe we'll get through it so maybe thursday afternoon >> much more cramer's mad dash is coming up futures are higher only 40 points >> and ftc took facebook down. >> "squawk on the street" back in a couple of minutes

yvonne: up next, details from jay powell's second they of testimony to congress and will ask if theres any more clarity of the fed rate outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪ betty: this is "daybreak asia". yvonne: fed chair jerome powell on the this week on capitol hill by delivering the same message he gave on tuesday. strong growth, full employment, and inflation will rise. but not just yet. kathleen hays was watching his performance, and not a whole lot of difference between they went and a two. kathleen: i have my own theory that people are not used to hearing jay powell speak, he is less of a trade academic economist, and he said look, the labor market is getting stronger and unemployment is low and there's momentum there and fiscal stimulus in a stronger global economy, so i see more rate hikes. three is best case, maybe for. ur. i am paraphrasing, but that is what i got from his testimony. it is important that when he looks at inflation, he gives the reasons why it is going to rise but he doesn't see wage exhilaration yet. let's listen to what jay powell said on thursday. >> most of th

on the fed jay powell heads back to capitol hill to testify before the senate banking committee that hearing gets underway at 10:00 a.m. even. weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern, along with january personal income and spending at 10:00 a.m., the ism manufacturing index. automakers will worth february sales throughout the day best buy, kohl's, amc networks report before the bell gap, nordstrom, american outdoor brands also out after the close. a lot of people will be watching that one >>> in earnings news, shares of ab inbev moving higher after reporting strong quarterly results. landon dowdy joins us with more on those numbers >> that's right. shares of anheuser-busch moving higher after better-than-expected earnings. they reported higher profit in the fourth quarter thanks to savings from the sabmiller acquisition and a rebound in brazil despite the strong finish, ab inbev is still struggling in the

a hawkish jay powell indicating another two hikes this year and more in the future.

will be fed through jay powell come out with another push?blithely because he has no record to standby at the moment. janet yellen at our he succeeded in the early part of -- had already succeeded in the early part of her tenure. i think you are right, he might be more inclined -- i think he will start out talking, but he will be inclined to put in some trapdoors, if the market falls over, or the economy. guy: freddie will stick around, joining us from latitude management, where he is the cio we have a number. events coming up and you can follow them on your bloomberg. there is one currently running on tencent, which is about to drop earnings out of hong kong. we expect those within the next 10 to 20 minutes, before 9:00 london time. we have the fomc meeting coming up as well, and the bank of england rate decisions coming up as well. we have an exclusive interview that francine lacqua will be doing with jes staley. he has a new investor, an activist investor. that will make interesting times for jes staley. we will see what he thinks of that.

jay powell gets right to the point and moves on.y 45nference was minutes, instead of an hour or more. what did we see? fed perhaps a bit more hawkish. yes, they do see more rate hikes in three years. maybe the doves are on the back foot now. they have three rate hikes penciled in for 2018. people saying this move opens the door to four rate hikes in 2018. let's jump into the terminal, .ng at dots you can see the previous array of dots, what is coming from each fed official. where it was before the meeting, where it is now. it was a narrow consensus first three rate hikes. there were six people not seeing that, and four seeing more. you have six seeing three, six that seefour, only two less than three hikes. a slightly hawkish tilt. you have a three in 2019 and three in 2020. urges. key, the hawkish the faster speed of hikes next year. interesting they stuck with of the three hikes for now -- they stuck with the three hikes for now. david: they stuck with their guns. kathleen: they see a lot of stuff picking up next year. that is

meeting being live which which would actually make may a possibility i think that jay powell who founded the industrials group when he was at carlisle i think he's going to be paying pretty close attention to these earnings reports that are going to be coming out in these coming weeks we've already heard from companies like general mills that input costs that raw material costs are eating their margins alive i think that jay powell is going to pay attention to these cues coming out of the earnings season unlike his predecessors and he's going to be on the hunt for inflation and he's going to get more signs that inflation is bubbling up a tad even as growth is slowing bart i think you know that that's called stagflation and it is a nasty critter we haven't seen since the seventy's danielle de martino both the author of. we thank you so much for your time as always. and most people can't start their day without a nice cup of hot coffee but have you ever wondered where it comes from or what companies have the biggest share of the markets for the answers to these questions and much more let'

david: jay powell did his best. he was doing just fine, thank you.owth overseas and then yesterday, we got disappointing emi numbers, down in europe. julia: they are whoppers, trust me from the european girl, when we talk about pmi's and 56, maybe they are softer but still great numbers. bingo. david: exactly. the european girl she called herself. michael mckee and nathan sheets, thank you for being with us.coming up , the maker of brass dolls wants to save toys "r" us. commute today, turn on your radio and tune into our colleagues. it is 7:00 to 9:00 on the radio and then pimm fox joins the conversation from 9:00 to 10:00. can berg surveillance heard all across the united states on sirius xm. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ kailey: this is bloomberg daybreak. i kailey leinz. coming up on bloomberg markets, neel kashkari, federal reserve bank of minneapolis president. and now to your bloomberg business flash. there is a report that target and kroger are discussing a possible merger. the talks began last summer about a partnership. now, the

jay powell said something important in that regard on tuesday, which is that he sees the merger of regulatory powers and monetary policies as important for the fed. mark: given that powell spoke his own view, many have the obvious follow-up as does the rest of the fomc fall into line? is there a problem, or can the rest of the fomc state their views? or did powell win the masses? since ben bernanke took over, it has been about trying to create consensus well at the same time everyone having slightly different views. jerome powell didn't really talk about that. his communications policy seemed to extend what ben bernanke and janet yellen did during their tenure. mark: kevin, just coming back to tuesday, from what you have heard, how did the white house take the fed chairman's first testimony to congress? they liked it. i was speaking with a source before coming on, who noted that this pick, buy yes, he doesn't have the traditional background that other folks and other fed chairs have had, for the large part he has been a consistent successor to the fed chair yellen. with the exception, has mik

new fed reserve chairman jay powell gave an upbeat view of the u.s.ony to congress this week, -- in his testimony to congress this week, making some investors fear that he might increase the pace of rate hikes. bloomberg television spoke with several prominent guests about the financial markets. let's start with the erik schatzker conversation in abu dhabi with former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers. erik: we learned a lesson in january about underpriced risk when it came to volatility. is risk underpriced? mr. summers: the risk of a calamitous decline in asset price? i see more people who seem too serene then i encounter who seem to be excessively alarmed. to that extent, this does not me, to be a profitous time for investors. erik: how difficult a situation is this for the fed chairman? mr. summers: it is a difficult balance between the legitimate desire to stimulate the economy and to get as much employment and growth as possible, and certainly to the that inflation gets back to 2% and maybe even the average inflation rate gets back to 2%. at

jay powell racking up testimony, and he said nothing suggest to him that wage inflation was to accelerate and there is no evidence the economy is currently overheating. powell is saying expectation is gradually or three raising rates as light as the economy continues to perform at this rate. well,out fiscal policy as and for that lets me some experts joining us now to discuss, international correspondent, michael mckee. the market reacted, the dollar got stronger, and treasury is the same. what backsk powell what some of the policy said on tuesday? michael: you the job where i think i understand what you think i said? he said the economy is going to grow faster but there is a lot of slack in the labor market. bigwe're not going to see changes in inflation, but that could come down the road the right now we are ok and does a coded message to the markets tuesday'soverread testimony. he is basically saying we could absorb what you current address and it seems to have worked because if you look at the yield curve, eels are down across the board. it is interesting what he said about labor mark

jay powell said our view has been that the combination of raising the threshold and giving us the ability to go below it in cases where needed gives us the tools that we need. and former chair, federal reserve chair janet yellen has said we've already said we would favor some increase. if congress sticks with the $1 threshold, that we would support some increase in the threshold. an approach based on business model or factors is also a workable approach from our point of view. conceiveably some of the enhanced standards should apply to more firms with lower level of assets and others with higher levels. so i think either type of approach is something we could work with and would be supportive of. that's the former chair of the federal reserve. our bill right sizes regulations by raising the $50 billion threshold to $250 billion. banks with total assets below $100 billion are exempt immediately from these enhanced standards, while those with between $100 billion and $250 billion are presumed exempt 18 months after the bill is enacted unless the federal reserve board determines that they ne

jay powell's debut press conference before the world tomorrow.tension going to be in not just -- his news conference? bill colin powell has to show -- bill: powell has to show he's his own man. the market is betting he will be market is betting he will be much more hawkish, maybe hinting at a fourth rate increase, but he doesn't have a lot of economic support for that. inflation really isn't there, and with retail sales collapsing, it might be growth isn't there, because growth estimates have been revised down rapidly, talking below 2% for the first quarter. joe: if you got to ask a question at the press conference, what would you ask? bill: i would ask mr. powell, how is it that you will be able to raise rates at the same pace you projected before when you thought the economy was doing a lot better, in light of the fact the economy seems to be slowing? julia: and how should he respond? bill: well, everything is subject to the data. [laughter] i am sure the response will be, we will move our policy as the data warrants. right now, there is no pro

continue talking about these markets ahead of jay powell's testimony.going to talk more about what's going on with the u.s. and donald trump's fledgling trade war with china. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: welcome back -- matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. let's take a look at how markets are shaping up across the continent. in the u k, british markets are down. i wish markets are gaining. across the continent, we are looking at a see of red with a drop of -- a sea of red. germany.in across the pond, so to speak, president donald trump is expected to announce steep tariffs on steel, and scott, do you say "aluminium?" guy: we can go around the houses on this one. it's like "herbs." h" in it.an " we digress. this is a tough story. some people say the trade war started. this is one of the toughest ones we have seen thus far. it's going to be interesting to see how this works its way around the globe. we have already seen china's reaction. china has said it will take "proper measures to safeguard its rights and interests." mouham

market prepares for another day of jay powell's testimony. the central bank governor on the new president and central bank independence in south africa. president trump ranks of rhetoric against china. how will beijing respond? good morning everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." wppu was actually halted about 10 minutes ago. tom: the news flow is extraordinary this morning. i think this really filters into the dynamics of technology. it comes on the back of the bombshell yesterday that nbc across all of their platforms in america are going to reduce the advertisements that they show in prime time. i don't know how that translates in europe and the united kingdom, but that is a huge change for advertising in america. francine: you're right tom. i think everything is tied together. the advertising is very global, but when you speak to some media analysts say reading the statement from wpp, there's a little shocked and all -- there's a little shocked and awe. in the meantime, let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here's tayl

that will be followed by jay powell's news force. and then salesforce.com is buying mulesoft.tock had popped during the day yesterday on reports that a deal was near, but you can see this morning mulesoft up another 4% salesforce down by 2.5%. >>> the founders of nordstrom have ended talks about a possible deal. the discussions had been aimed about taking nordstrom private but the two sides couldn't agree on an acceptable price. >> breaking news, the suspect in this month's series of bomb attacks in austin, texas, is dead according to police chief brian manley he blew himself up with an explosive device followed by a confrontation with law enforcement officials. manley says officials believe the suspect is responsible for all of the recent incidents which killed two people and injured four others. the suspect has not been identified yet publicly. you always see a lot of things i'm not sure it's confirmed 24-year-old individual hopefully solely responsible for what happened that i guess at this point -- >> it's been three weeks for that city being terrorized. >> solely responsi

he says to jay powell who is not yet chairman of the federal reserve but is now. senator tester says, but i'm a dirt farmer. i read things as they are and don't read a lot of extra stuff into it. you're the man in the fed so i need to know your opinion and senator tester goes on to say to jay powell, does this bill, senate 2155, does it require the federal reserve to weaken any of the dodd-frank enhanced prudential standards for the f.b.o. such as deutsche bank, u.b.s. or barclays? jay powell said it does not according to the text -- i would say the text of the bill. next. senator crapo, who has put together this bipartisan legislation that led the way with a lot of help from senator tester and others. senator crapo asked, this is a hearing from last july. he is asking, the woman who is the chairman of the federal reserve. i think janet yellen did a great job. senator crapo asked chairman yellen, there appears to be growing consensus that congress should consider changing the $50 billion sifi threshold ; also, changing the volcker rule, exempting certain instituti

what do you expect from jay powell in washington dc today? going to spook the markets the way he did on tuesday? i don't really expect that. i think what spooked the markets was that he sounds different to what we have heard, not as more confident in a way. i think that will continue. nejra: is there a risk we read too much into what he is saying? the fed is a consensus, so while people were reading the hawkish tone that may have to do with him? different,does sound but when you look at the messaging, it was very much the same that we have heard before. , but the see too much confirmation we will continue on the rate hike part, and there is not more dovishness coming in. whether there is more hawkishness, i did not see that. economyes the u.s. justify it? let me put it this way. will the economy be fine with three rate hikes this year? you expect a big increase in earnings from corporate america? increase inpect an corporate earnings, but perhaps not as much as currently priced in. i think the u.s. as it is going at the moment can live with t

his i saw jay powell give testimony, he spoke to some of those issues talking about the fact that wenot pulled people back in that left the workforce during the great recession. the great recession was so long that people got detached from the workforce. especially in the u.s. where a lot of people went on disability and we have the opioid epidemic. some people have the view that those things are baked into the cake now and there is nothing we can do about it. wageew is that a stronger market will help. we are seeing people coming off of disability and looking for jobs. that is what jay powell actually how -- we will not know many workers we can pull back into the market unless we try. that is encouraging that he is aware of the same issues that i am and he may not be as big and inflation hawk as the market fears. cohn, you mentioned gary what are the chances that he will actually leave? reporter: personally, i don't think the chances are that high. not higher than 20%. the reports are frightening. there are people who said he was very upset and leaning towards leaving. we heard the

we are watching jay powell and what he will say on wednesday. tilt from jay powell, do you expect more flattening of the yield curve? have we seen enough priced into the treasury that that might not and the shorter and might not move as much as we saw a earlier a few weeks ago? >> when we look at markets today, we have three, slightly more, for, rate -- four rate hikes priced in. jay powell's first conference after the fomc meeting, whether his style indicates that the fed will be more hawkish and that will allow more dots to be priced in to the market -- dots being the fed long-term expectation for rate hikes -- i think the market will look very closely at how the statement is portrayed and whether they should take anything from higher levels or faster levels of interest rate hikes. david: the pricing right now the two-year, 2.3%. we will have to leave it there. interactive tvr fashion is tv . you can catch up on the past interviews you may have missed. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out, tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ vict

federal reserve meets for the first time under jay powell this week.ight -- a rate hike is a foregone conclusion as far as the market is concerned. the policy decision comes amid tense political turmoil in the united states and following the markets meltdown. how might that influence the fomc? let's ask head of middle east research. as i was just saying, we are expecting a rate hike next week. the question is, is it a hawkish rate hike or does it end up being a classic dovish hike? >> that is what we will watch to see in the minutes. forouse, we are expecting rate hikes. the market on the whole is looking for three. three point two is effectively what is priced in. if we get indications fed is for rate hikes, you will see it reflected in the value of the dollar. the chances are there will be a more of a bounce in the events that we see the markets realigning. powell's is jerome first proper fed chair meeting and will come with a conference. given that the last time he spoke in public, he did not some might your traditional central banker. to impact nex

jens: jay powell, as they call them, is a trade lawyer, which is also not unusual here on wall street obviously prefers very clear and open language and was open as he followed ben bernanke, and also fed chairwoman janet yellen. if we think back to the old days of alan greenspan, the fed policy was pretty wild. a guessing game. people on wall street tried to figure out how the size of his briefcase, how fed policy would change. jay powell also hinted he might be in favor of even more press conferences in the future because only about every second fed meeting we have conferences. so we might have the federal reserve being even more open and even to read which could be a good sign, but we cannot forget what would happen with fed rates in the future depends on the u.s. economy, and nobody really knows what is going to happen in the near future. so it is still a guessing game how much rates will move in the future. maybe one final comment, what is still interesting to see even if the federal reserve becomes more progressive, the dollar is not moving in the direction you would expect. it d

maria: you mentioned jay powell, the federal reserve. when people start getting nervous on 3% on the ten-year and 1.75% on the fed fund. yeah, they raised rates a quarter point. >> from the consumer's point of view and the average mortgage is 200,000, ten thousand a year, 200,000st dollars a week, it's impacted the margin and that's what it's supposed to do. rates have been so low so long, and we have to get back there. and the $4 trillion that were pump into the system has to be withdrawn. so we have to get more financial flexibility to the fed and that's what they're doing. i'm not too concerned. the only thing that will happen is the headlines when you go to 3% or 3.5% on the teen your with, going to say wow, a huge head wind and what does it mean for the stock prices. maria: bottom line, you feel good about the backdrop for investing? >> i love volatility, the algorithm of trading and the etfs being bought by investors, they're going to step back and say whoa, it's not one way. maria: even the backdrop in terms of earnings growth and

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it is fed week of course, the first policy decision under jay powell.et you a quick update on business flash headlines. saudi arabia has reported willingness to delay the aramco ipo, due to a lack of interest in the u.s. saudi officials pitched the listening to some of the regional hedge funds. we told investors that the soul -- the fellow this, the dividends aramco is prepared to pay and the impact of u.s. shale on global oil prices. betty: the crown prince of saudi arabia is planning to meet apple and google during his trip to the ever -- to the united states and have started to donald trump and senior administration officials. mohammad bin salman will have meetings in san francisco and l.a. saudi arabia was the first foreign country president trump visited after taking office. is paying $1.5 twoion in stakes in offshore oil facilities in abu dhabi. it will help develop the production of crude and natural gas. they have been working in this .nergy sector since 1939 it generates electricity at a solar plant and produces and sells gas. a roundup of the

the reaction yesterday was a combination of both jay powell testimony in front of congress as well as this surprise tariff announcement which nobody expected until next week, and they dropped that bomb yesterday afternoon. you saw how the market reacted steel stocks in the u.s. had a better day, but the broader market came under extreme pressure as a result of that conversation and what does it mean for trade and the u.s. economy. so there is some concern and the market as a leading indicator has said that yesterday and markets around the world are saying that this morning >> this is a market that has been fairly jumpy in recent weeks, looking for any excuse to sell off what do you make of those dynamics in the background >> listen, i think you're right. the market has been, ever since we had that selloff in early february where the market plunged nearly 11% over two, three days, that extreme correction that came right back up, it was much too fast, much too nervous, you could feel the anxiety in the market and with theny f new fed chair, then thi week the conversation again about wha

i think jay powell has a lot of experience in these judgments.an experienced public service in a real professional. >> in the u.s., we just had the best consumer confidence reading i think in 17 years. a lot of people are putting that to the tax reform bill. do you think this congress and this administration is setting up the economy to continue to do better? david: i think the tax reform bill will help the economy. no doubt about it. we have guarded incremental. we already have $20 trillion in debt. at some point, we have to pay debt off, but right now people are feeling good about the economy and growth rate. matt: speaking of borrowing and speaking of rates, treasury rates, what do you think about the talk of going over 3%? i'm starting to hear doomsday scenarios from people. about what companies will do the do if it goes -- do if it goes 4.5%.% -- david: i don't think they will go up dramatically. i lived at the white house when we had rates at 14%, 15%. i don't think anything like that. we are so used to low interest rates. right now, intere

i think jay powell pays attention.e's going to pay attention to the fact that people are finding work at the quickest pace since may of 2009. he will see that people left their jobs voluntarily and are out of work for five weeks or of them are2% finding work. wage inflation will build and what he told us yesterday is if the data changed, i will change with it. i do not look at the increase yesterday to the outlook for growth. it's the fact that they did not touch inflation and that will change. he said that will change. david: the data have to change but the question is when. you can have unemployment well below without getting inflation sooner or later. >> exactly, which growth will come along but that is part of globalization. if you have low inflation globally, it's difficult to raise wages in the united states because we are not competitive and i can suppressed. wage inflation has that groundswell to lift globally but it's taking longer than people thought. had record insurance proceeds in 2017 through natural disa

it's the federal reserve banks that control the vote here however, jay powell has extraordinarily good relationship with all the bankers. having assumed that reasonability in the board before he became chair of being the liason with the federal reserve banks. i don't think they're going to part from the path from a management standpoint, why would you? it would be an odd way to start off on that foot taz new chair. so i don't see anything new and exciting happening what i'm watching for is a con fir mag of what i believe, which is jay powell feels much more comfortable in front of a camera, in front of the press, than his predecessors. now because they weren't brillia brilliant, but because they had a different set of personalities. he's very comfortable. less formal. and i just expect no surprises after this meeting >> so, rick, 290 on the ten-year note maybe getting closer to 291. does that tell us it's priced in >> so i think the comments have been b right and i agree markets have definitely priced in the fed's going to keep moving there's a lot of information value today. i think s