matt: jay powell says, don't worry about it.s a deal to buy shire for 46 billion pounds. president trump says he will announce his decision on the iran deal at 2 p.m. washington time and 7:00 p.m. for those of you in london. has the market already priced in america's exit? can tehran stay in the deal with that go good morning, welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. i am matt miller. guy johnson is in london. euro-stocks are flat. individual names are worth paying attention to. the buyback stock today is having an impact, a $6 billion buyback. unilever up this morning and rippling elsewhere. let me take you to the bottom end of the market. deutsche post is trading down by 6.81. there was a low end of the expectation range in terms of what analysts were saying about the numbers. factors coming together. transaction is something we are paying attention to and we will bring throughthat news to you the morning. and jay powell is in zurich today. we will bring you those comments. he has already released his statements. in th

joe: jay powell looks an -- luke: jay powell looks an uberhawk. jonathan: what gives you that indication? luke: just the rhetoric we have had since he got appointed a few months ago. he wants to get up the hill. he is the grand old duke of york. he wants to go marching up the hill with rates. so he has some room to get down the other side. i just think he is going to continue down that path, and the risk is just too much. and that could be where we get 2020 as our problem area. jonathan: that is really interesting. diana, real rates are still negative at the federal reserve. this is still an accommodative federal reserve, isn't it? diana: it is, but that is the point. that raises the likelihood that you do get more hikes. the federal reserve is concerned that we have had unprecedented stimulus at a time when the labor market is tight. we do not want to be caught behind the curve, but we want to see other language that way. i think the next two meetings, it will be important to see what happens with the dots. toexpect the median dot signal one more

f1 and comments from central bank including jay powell.his is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." over the next week, menace whalen election this weekend -- venezuelan election this weekend. of england and the fed jay powell and other central bankers will be at a conference. we will be watching closely to see if an italian prime minister is named now that the government program has been a agreed-upon. still with me is luke hickmore, joe higgins, and diana amoa. bcp's totally battered through the week and we wondered when the risk would bite. here it is. luke: you can easily say it is going to be tough to get things through. there is going to be so much rhetoric from them at the beginning when they get things done and how they will be successful and they will get brussels to support them, it is 164, i want to see 170 or 180. that longsis is not ago and we could get something a bit like that. it feels to me it should be 200 to compensate, not 160. jonathan: do think it might be conditioned

jonathan: you bring up the inflation story and jay powell and his followers for higher inflation. whether they were solo global central bank at the moment, and whether they are still sensitive to global financial conditions. in jay powell's mind, he's basically saying that this overstate investors the influence of the federal reserve on global financial conditions. that was the takeaway from his speech by a lot of people. do you think he is adult dating the that -- understating the fed's role on financial conditions? mr. buchanan: you probably do have to look at financial conditions and understand that there is a time and a place for financial conditions and the real question is, if financial conditions got disrupted in a meaningful way, would that fed put reengage. our view is it may be off the table i think the fed understands we run a very delicate situation, not only in the u.s., but globally, and that the removal accommodations need to be done with care and it needs to be done with active feedback from the market. if the signals like curve were to come close to inverting, i t

what did jay powell say kathleen: -- what did jay powell same?ut by saying the relationship between the u.s. reserve, financial conditions, the countries affected, this is the topic of his paper, subject of research lately. he says in the beginning of his speech the conclusion some have drawn, the fed policy has been hitting some emerging markets hard, has been exaggerated. in fact, he said that so far, policy normalization has not disrupted global markets. let's listen to one of his key phrases. said policy normalization has proceeded without disruption to markets and participants' expectations. figures seem well aligned with policy keeper expectations. kathleen: he said it is in line with their forecasts, made every three months. another sign things are on track. he also said normalization, monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, the fed, maybe the ecb, should be manageable for emerging markets. let's listen again. >> i do not dismiss perspective risks from global policy normalization. some investors and institutions may not be well-p

jay powell was an excellent appointment, rich clarida is an excellent appointment. the president has shown no overnation to send incompetent people with wild ideas to the federal reserve, although he has done that with many, many agencies of government. indeed, in many agencies of government, he has sent people that seem to have a mission to destroy the agency. when he has done with fed nominations is completely different from that. it has led people like me to applaud the decisions that we just hope it will keep up. there are more vacancies to be filled. caroline: would you applaud the views we have heard already in the statement was released ahead of time by richard clarida saying that you would see a balanced approach in terms of the dual focus of the fed but also in terms of banking reform? he seems to be a supporter of the reforms put in place since the financial crisis. in your book to you mentioned how those reforms help the banks but not the homeowners. do you think there should be changes or perhaps no one'ss -- nuances made when it comes to banking reform?

still ahead, the final spread, featuring fomc minutes including jay powell. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ on a thin: it is time for the spread. we have brexit negotiations continue. south korean president mine meeting with president trump. fomc minutes and the bank of england's mark carney, jay powell you and other central bankers will be at a conference for the bank and we will see if minister isprime named now that the government program has been agreed upon. with me, our guests. let's begin with you. btp's totally battered through the week. we wondered when the political risk would bite, are they a buy yet? >> you could say it is difficult to get a whole bunch of stuff through and that is right. it will be so much rhetoric from them right from the beginning of when they get things done and how they will be successful and get brussels to support them. , i want to see this at 170 or 180. the european sovereign crisis is not that long ago. to compensate 200 you. not when 60. jonathan: if we do -- is this about an increase of btp supply, two different things

or is the market taking too much but notice desk too much notice of jay powell? francesco: every central bank has taken notice of the market. these times of uncertainty and with high asset price violations, the concern is moving too abruptly in generating abrupt change. they are all trying to does the retreat of monetary stimulus in a general way. the market for this year is fairly aligned with the fed's dot plot, particularly if you add on the s curves, the term premium which we know is negative. throwing from his speech, an interesting set of remarks pertains to the connection between bond markets and different monetary policies around the world. francine: is there anything markets are misunderstanding about the fed? it was interesting to hear chair powell talk about dot plots. francesco: it is there. it is another piece of information that the market closely looks at. particularly given there's a lot of macro uncertainty, people are trying to piece out from how the fed sees the world, more information to be gleaned. that is why we look at dot plots. the diffic

the bank of england and the fed 's jay powell and other central bankers will be at a conference.lso we will be watching closely , to see if an italian prime minister is named now that the government program has been agreed-upon. still with me is luke hickmore, joe higgins, and diana amoa. btp, totally battered through the week. we wondered when the risk would bite. here it is. are they a buy yet? luke: no. you can easily say it is going to be tough to get things through. we have to get this government off the ground. there is going to be so much rhetoric from them at the beginning when they get things done and how they will be successful and they will get brussels to support them. it is at 164 over in italy. i want to see 170 or 180. the crisis is not that long ago and we could get something a bit like that. it feels to me it should be 200 to compensate, not 160. jonathan: do think it might be conditioned by a trading regime to some extent? is risk domination a factor or is it about increase d supplies? luke: it depends on how far brussels comes toward italy. if they don't come t

if we can call jay powell cool hand luke, that is what we are seeing.et: if the fed is not moving away from its course, shouldn't it make every meeting a live meeting, every meeting a possible rate hike? carl: it is a communication issue for the fed and they have not been satisfied with the evolution of the two-tiered meeting status with live meeting and dead meetings, so i think that we will see at some point in the not so distant future, moving toward a press conference at every single meeting. scarlet: this year? carl: i think we could see the this year. tom: we talked earlier with scott. and ira, the auction this morning, did anybody care about your briefing this morning? does it matter? ira: it doesn't matter that much to people at the fed. i think they will look at it from a market liquidity standpoint. ok, the treasury will have to issue more bonds, they will do some, mostly in the front-end. one of the questions is, does it impact the shape of the curve? with them issuing another $9 billion of two year and three-year notes, that is significant,

i am wondering if jay powell well. -- powell will.s the world bank when economic data impacts united states data. that happened in 2015. guy: where are we now? at the stage where global factors are not strong enough to affect the united states, given that china started to lucas -- to easy e policy. -- to ease policy. thank you gentlemen for coming to see us. we are to be on bloomberg radio very shortly in london. the stock of the hour is rbs. the royal bank is settling with the doj. the number really stands out. billion toelow $10 settle the mortgage claims in the united states. that number is half what the markets initially predicted. it will have a capability of making that. this opens the door back up to dividends being paid by rbs. the stock is trading well above , andge volume on the gd certainly outperforming the markets. it will be interesting to see how the british government ends the exit, which would carry a significant paper loss. it is a busy market move this morning today when it comes to stocks more broadly. bt group dow

three looks like it is a pretty solid story at the moment for the fed and jay powell.ghi is going to speak later on today, do you think he's going to give any emphasis to the upside to the euro? you think he would want to do that? mark: he will be china not to give away anything. the ecb have got themselves in quite a spot. they don't want to let the market know of any fixed date when they are going to be removing the qe. they want to leave them guessing for now. they would really like to push it further back into the future. he'll be working very hard not to leave anything on the table for the markets to digest. if the euro is unchanged today, he will be very happy. the market will certainly be looking for any hint that he is going to commit to september as the beginning of the exit date. he will try very hard not to give them away. guy: bank of america seems to be heading to $100 a barrel for oil, is the market ready? mark: i think nowadays, with the shale outfit, $100 is going to be a chiefly -- extremely difficult to achieve. the saudi's have done a great job of ke

in jay powell's mind, he is basically saying markets overstate the influence of the federal reserve onbal financial conditions. that is the takeaway of the speech by a lot of people. do you think he is understating the fed's role? >> you probably do have to look at financial conditions, and understand there is a time and place. the real question is, if financial conditions got disrupted, but that -- would that reengage? i think the fed understands we are in a difficult situation not only in the u.s., but globally, and the accommodation needs to be done with care and active feedback from the market. if the curve were to come close to inverting, i think the fed is going to pay attention to that. >> has the fed put changed? i mean global financial conditions, em, china. we saw the fed back off and em route in 2015. is the federal reserve more or less sensitive to that than they were a year ago? >> i think you're seeing them exit, sort of quantitative easing and rising interest rate environment we haven't seen before. they are setting the precedence for one other central banks are going to

. >> a week ago jay powell give a speech looking at emerging markets and movements of central banks in the federal reserve. seems to be the federal reserve does not have much to do with the recent selloff in emerging markets and volatility. moves are transparent and well telegraphed. they can handle this. we look at indonesia. we're looking at turkey. do you agree that the fed has very little impact on emerging markets and it doesn't have to be concerned with this as they change policy? corrects i'm in agreement with the chair speech on this. i thought he did a good job. this is an issue that has been around over the last six or seven years getting pushed back from emerging markets. thatnk the story has to be the fed's charges to make good monetary policy for the united states and that other countries have to follow their own monetary policy. haveure they would like to more influence over u.s. monetary policy that we have to run monetary policy for the u.s. we're certainly cognizant there is feedback from emerging markets. but there are a lot of countries out there. we can't do everyth

i do not envy jay powell right now. john: no doubt about it.id: at the top of the hour, we will speak with a central banker. michael mckee will interview robert kaplan. today is a big day for another reason, that is because the general data protection regulation, gdpr, goes into effect in europe, placing new limits on companies that collect and use data on individuals. to take us through the regulation, we welcome bart mcdonough, and sarah, who is our bloomberg intelligence senior analyst in london. we will put up a chart that indicates that outlines in the gdpr, take us to the important new restrictions. is wouldally, th apply to companies in you are in the world, if they process data in the european union. its impact is not insignificant. andrules on data processing storage come into effect today, and it is a huge challenge for companies, especially in the financial services sector, which may have been focusing on. we're talking about the average cost of 66 million pounds, compared to 15 million for 5100 companies. david: you are for the fina

tomorrow, jay powell and mark carney are among the speakers at the 250 anniversary conference.will have live coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: it is 2:00 in new york, 7:00 in london. to bloombergome markets. . scarlet: live in bloomberg world headquarters. the top stories we are covering on the bloomberg around the world. summit canceled. president trump scrubs a meeting with kim jong-un sending markets reeling. accelerates the push to revamp germany's biggest lender. crypto underscore new. the justice department opened a criminal probe into whether traders are manipulating the price of bitcoin and other currencies. u.s. markets closing in two hours. stocks were tumbling. >> the dow was down 1%. ashave seen volatility traders have been watching

jay powell is not an academic. to see them do that.will stop if they feel they are going to make that error. julia: even if inflation is above 2%? is where we were talking about the symmetrical inflation target. i would argue that wealthy people have disproportionately benefited from the policy makes over the last nine years while the average person, that does not own financial assets or is an hourly worker, has not dissipated. the fed has to be care -- has not participated. the fed has to be careful. if you tighten too quickly, you take the punch bowl away before the average guy gets a drink. sorry, we're out. from political point of view, the fed has to because of that. julia: jason, you are staying with us. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. julia: i am julia chatterley back with jason trennert. jason, we were talking before the break about sentiment throughout the united states whether it is a blue state or a red state. you are all so incorporating an investor sentiment. can you brea

in jay powell's mind, he is basically saying, that this market and investors, overstate the influencef the federal reserve on global financial conditions. that was the takeaway from the speech this week by a lot of people. do you think he is understating the federal on global financial conditions? >> i think, no. you probably do have to look at financial conditions, and understand there is a time and a place for financial conditions. the real question is, if financial conditions got disrupted in a meaningful way, would the fed reengage? i personally think, and i think our view is, maybe off the table, that right now the fed understands that we are in a delicate situation, not only in the u.s., but globally. and that the accommodation needs to be done with care and active feedback from the market. you get signals like if the curve or to come close to inverting, i think the fed is going to pay attention to that. jonathan: let us talk about the fed put george. has it changed? has the fed put changed? and i don't just mean that domestic story with where the s&p 500 trades. i mean global c

jay powell is pretty much -- yvonne: and the others.a: so in case the fed is going to go one way or the other all of a sudden because of mr. trump's outlook on the economy, it is proceeding that -- it is for seeing a steady past. once politicians take on central banks, you don't know where it will go. david: no luck are based on economic sometimes. thank you so much, and the . rrent, our -- enda curran we have an interview with the alaska governor who said his take is key to cutting the trade surplus china has with america. that chat is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: we are counting down to asia's first major market open this morning. the markets memorial day weekend in the u.s., but we see firmer shares in japan, the nikkei futures up, reducing the fall from the dollar-yen, weakness coming through for the yen. david: a lot of that comes down to where the dollar goes from here. we are getting a lot of data from the u.s. this week. we are getting revised first-quarter gdp numbers out wednesday about the u.s.

jay powell will pay attention to this.knows that deer and caterpillar and staple companies have their profit margins squeezed and companies can only withstand that for so long before they look to marry out with other companies to cut costs. your biggest line is cutting labor costs. amanda: around fed watching is a debate going around somewhat publicly about how the fed should act and how that runs counter to economic expansion. we see anything that muddies the market more? danielle: there could be some bit of confusion tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. eastern standard time because a big word was introduced in the last fomc statement -- symmetric. it implies the fed will make monetary policy as opposed to having a hard target of 2% and that they will make policy within a range. moves 1/10the core per month, it will appear's 2% target by july. therefore policymakers have , a fulled new language on propaganda campaign to explain to the public what it means that they are going to no longer make monetary policy based on this one unitary t

jay powell, carney, others. that was fascinating. storiesook at those because they have a lot to do with central banks and defend its and the power of populism and how it affects central banking decisions. for context, let's bring in marty schenker. in most powerful people economics, finance, global politics all on the program. mickelthwait.n mark: he asked -- vonnie: he asked pointed questions, he asked the vladimir putin how you deal with president trump? >> interesting to hear vladimir putin call john a particular. -- provocateur. he asked about the presidential election and vladimir putin said i had nothing to do with the u.s. election which got a big response from the crowd. the headline to me was trade. panel,sensus of the without naming donald trump by name, raising questions about his global trade policy. vonnie: real disagreements in france, for example, most people on the panel disagreed without a president is conducting himself. what was lacking was clear strategy on what to do about it. vonnie: there were other issues div

yes, it seems like jay powell is saying that e.m.'u look at indonesia, turkey, is that the way that he should be dealing with this kind of issue? where you look outside the u.s. anything, shrug it off, or should it be more cognizant of what is going on? hayden: my sense is that the fed always follows that script. when you get late in the cycle here and they make a mistake, it ends up in a circular fashion, coming back to bite the u.s. economy because the rest of the route is starting to get week. we are now in the second quarter of a synchronized slowdown happening around the world, whether it is your rope, japan or the u.s.. yvonne: but can we still see three rate hikes this year and 2019? hayden: i still think it is in the cards. historically, to to the 60's, usually we end up in a recession when the rate hikes 200 basis points and energy doubles. you have to have both things together. what he of had so far is a doubling in energy prices 1.5%, and we're pretty close to another rate hike. yvonne: just to say -- eddie fisher hayden, i

jay powell, speaking in zurich.nie: we will continue to monitor the oil markets that are beding out of had -- out of . just a while ago, crude took a bit of a nosedive. trading at 68.27 per barrel. rent is also following, but not by as much -- brent is also following, but not by as much. at wheree a look european markets are trading as we wait for the trump decision, as you said, 2 p.m. local time there. we are getting close to it. look at the situation across european equities today. we are seeing declines next for trump. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: from bloomberg has european headquarters in london, i'm mark barton. oil and crew declines in the last half-hour have taken a decline. oil and gas are down by 1.5%. we are waiting, little changed, for the announcement from donald trump on the iran nuclear deal. italian stocks are among the worst performers in the region as political uncertainty persists. this is the wonderful chart showing you the difference between the italian and german ten-year. the spread is widening

questionsthere is a component e andprojections telling us then it's obviously jay powell's job to put story around it. is sortnk john williams of more in favor of cleaning more heavily on that as opposed to the exact language in the statement which is more a signal about how far along we are in the tightening cycle. vonnie: does it mean going back to the previous -- people would have to read the tea lives of these statements. understandhave to these signifiers. >> it is more of a symbolic change because they do put out all of those projections and those are not going away anytime soon. they can't really roll back the transparency they have ruled out. the tweaking language is really toe of a symbolic gesture show this is the direction we are headed or maybe we are not headed in that direction so much anymore as a poster as opposed to taking information away. what did he have to say about symmetrix? has beenilliams talking about the sort of symmetric inflation goal. obviously inflation in the u.s. has been running below 2% for the better part of five years and it finally just reached 2%

jay powell has not done that.would be a good, woman to the -- it would be a good complement to the chair. nejra: a lot of these models are coming under question. he said a very complex picture lies behind the 3.9% job. the fed doesn't know -- we talk about full employment, what we are talking about is the maximum number of people who can be employed before you see wages rise and inflations follows. don't we are down to 3.9% and we aren't seeing wage growth area there is something different in the economy today. i was talking to rob kaplan who talked about global technology disruption and the globalization of labor forces as factors that were not present in the past. the fed has to take that into account which is why clarida told the fed today they need to look at a broad range of labor market indicators and not just be a lehman rate. vonnie: a couple of things to make mention of. -- the unemployment rate. clarida boeing was hurt in the boeing was hurt in the airbus case. $22 billion, the figure according to boeing

from jay powell's first meeting he attended in june of 2012, he talked about the rangers of not havingolatility in the marketplace, leading to bad asset allocation. i think he will be more -- >> it's interesting that you think he will pay less attention to the markets less spooked >> he knows through our policies, qe policies, cutting rates to zero, we pushed out the risk parameters. that was a deliberate effort, it worked >> you just compared him to paul volcker. >> he's shorter than paul volcker. >> volcker came in and saved things, but created havoc in the markets. >> this is different we don't have jimmy carter in the white house, et cetera it's a different mode. right now it's not the 2% inflationary target, it's putting as many nuts in the tree as i can for when the winter comes. >> how does it work in the room? does everybody go around and say this is what i think >> you start out with the staff briefing you do the domestic economy. the international economy. markets. >> all by the staff? >> yeah. conglomeration of staff. >> you ask questions >> you start with the desk report fi

what is holding up the process why isn't this getting done and does the senate not care that jay powelld chairman doesn't have a full roster to do the work he has to do and believe me the fed has a lot of work to do. >> absolutely. they should have seven governors sitting there. there is a lot of committee work to be done. you have to have -- in the old days you have to have four people there in order to have a quorum. these days there are only three governors. they changed the rules after 9/11. so you need the full team on the field. >> let's get down to two questions that have to be asked. i'm sorry, first thing i think of is why is the senate acting this way do you have thoughts is it just that they don't want to put a whole team? are they afraid the president will succeed are they afraid his team members will make the process better what is the issue? >> first of all, all the democrats have been opposed to opposed to mr. qualls, for instance, and mr. goodfriend, also wait nth wings. so the vote in the committee was 13-12 in his favor then you have a couple of republicans, mr. paul,

three or four months now into jay powell's chairmanship, we need to start read the tea leaves. is he going to seed u.s. interest rates? i think it is a new regime. a couple interesting comments made. it was not made by him, but it was at the height of the market back in february.the common was that it was small potatoes. i think what that commentary means is this federal reserve are going to be left sensitive to gyrations. the yellen put, the bernanke put, it is always going to be there, but it is a lot lower than people believe. the fed managing asset prices indefinitely is a fiction. the bar is quite high. i think what chairman powell wants to see is a normalized u.s. interest rates at a time when unemployment rates are very low and the u.s. economy is growing nicely. gyratingces might be around, but they are still near all-time highs. why would you not carry on raising rates? but the second comment by powell himself came last week about emerging markets. he was asked, can emerging markets cope with higher rates? he said, it is manageable. i don't want to be too semantic, but

fed chair jay powell says financial markets have gotten the message on gradual interest rate increases and should not be surprised right in section. he told imf reserves that tightening has proceeded without -- he warns some investors may not be well-positioned for rate hikes. >> i don't dismiss the perspective risks emanating from global policy normalization. some investors and institutions may not be well positioned for a rise in interest rates, even one that markets broadly anticipate. future economic conditions may surprise us as they often do. jessica: australia is forecast to surpass the budget surplus in fiscal 2020. economists say that relies on optimistic wages growth. the treasurer's budget for the coming year offers tax cuts to low and middle income earners, financial perks for retirees, and modest giveaways for help and finance. the average worker's pay growth by $10 a week. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. haidi: one-sided and horrible -- that is how president trump described

yvonne: jay powell make the declaration of central bank independence.under growing government pressure.

michael: jay powell is seen by the markets as a steady hand, continuing the policies of janet yellen,y. is that an accurate impression? jay for aave known long time. i think he is a really good guy, has really good character. my guess is those activities are more important over the next three or four years than some people in markets might believe. i suspect this is a continuity fed. what i'm looking for chairman powell and the new team that the president and the chairman assemble after they get their feet under them and put in place much of janet yellen's policies. they spend a few years after that reforming the institution. i think 2019 might be the first year before you see a new put his imprint on the institution, and for purposes of continuity that starks me as a good thing. michael: you argue to the one thing that is on autopilot that he would be cap -- would not be affecting, the balance sheet, needs attention. kevin: we cannot go back to 2014. my own judgment is the same as chairman bernanke he's in the depths of the crisis, which is that we cut rates to zero, we grew the bala

and i think jay powell in his speeches, has been trying to convey that.they want to move ahead, because they think there will be some normalization. but he has been straightforward and saying, this is an unusual. , so we have to move cautiously and gradually? kathleen: i would like to ask you about one of jim bollards main arguments on his tone, five reasons for the fed to be cautious. i think one of the main reasons is the flattening yield curve, which he says could very well invert, if the fed keep raising rates. if you get 75 basis points, the arithmetic argues that you are going to get an inverted yield curve. we have a chart that shows how it close we are to something like that. to 10 spreads, and also the five to 30's, and the two to 10 has spread. i think his- argument is that the fed has to be cautious now. because you are so close to dangerous territory, potentially? randy: i think we have to step back and think about whether you'd curve is relatively flat. i think that is because this is an unusual situation where the fed, unfortunately, in many

up, em is where it's felt usually the first we're seeing that play out >> we'll see if fed chair jay powellaks to this topic on friday whcen he talks. thank you. >>> time for top trending stories. we have to begin with florida. a power outage in lake worth prompting city officials to send out this mobile alert. power outage and zombie alert for resident of lake worth, there are far less than 7,380 customers involved due to extreme zombie activity. restoration time is uncertain. the public information officer apologizing for the alert saying lake worth does not have any zombie activity currently. >> i gave my brother a gift, a zombie apocalypse survival kit, had canned goods, water, maybe they need it there >>> brandi chastain inducted into the bay area hall of fame, but her bronze plaque was less than hall of fame worthy if you look at that the likeness was so bad. it really is bad it spawned comparisons to mickey rooney, gary busey, maybe even jimmy carter brandi chastain looks nothing like those people. the hall of fame says it will have the plaque redone for those people listening on sir

show rising fed interest rates may not be as big a risk for global emerging markets according to jay powellg in zurich, he vowed the central bank would communicate policy strategy as clearly as possible he says that, but of course the dollar has risen to new highs for the year, it's bounced about 4% in the last couple of weeks alone. still pretty much flat on a year-to-date basis i think the move in dollar over the last few weeks is freaking out a lot of currency pairs, not just in developed markets but also in emerging markets we've seen that in the lira and the peso just looking at this board, euro/dollar is making new lows cable about to break through 1.35 the theme is very much of dollar strength and what the fed decides to do ext. >> we look at the euro, one big factor is trade data germany posted a bigger than expected trade surplus for march. data showed exports rose 1.7%, rebounding from a 3.1% drop back there february, while imports fell by nearly 1%. joining us to talk about this a bit by phone from munich is the director of the ifo center for economics at the ifo institute i want

the equity market can no longer get --n jay powell to give them the time of day. that is right. lot of people are nervous that the fed put has evolved into the powell curve and that means they might be worried if the curve flattens in the u.s.. they won't be worried about the equity market falling further. i am less concerned about the 200 day moving average. was not a good guide and this year, it has been coincidental. because all the market has been watching it the past couple of weeks, it has taken on greater focus. i think the short-term pressures are still from pain in the equity market. overall, the longer-term story is good. we have more pain in the next month or two first. of 2.7 we get a read average wages, will that freak the market out? mark: yeah, that will be bad news for stocks. my colleague pointed out that it is one of those days where payroll could be the most negative outcome for equities rather than boosting equities on a good economy. it might worry that the fed will accelerate rate hikes. this market is nervous at the moment and you see that. -- an amazing e

. >>> jay powell talking about meaning markets overnight.n switzerland powell saying tighter policy should be more manageable for emerging economies and while emerging markets have had an incredible run recently they have hit a bit of a stumbling block. let's get more from seema mody >> emerging markets have come under pressure as of late. the main reason is the strength of the dollar which appreciated about 3% just in the past four weeks as we look to rising rates for more answers around tightening monetary policy a stronger dollar means emerging market debt becomes more expensive as emerging market debt is dollar denominated the sudden reversal in the dollar sent the argentinean peso to a record low pushing the central bank there to raise the rate to 40% there 27%. that's a dlramatic move experts say the pain may not be over it's not just the peso we've seen weakness in the brazilian real, the turkish lira and the indian rupe. the broader msci continues to underperform the u.s. market in 2018 after gaining over 30% last year but there are

. >> jay powell gave a speech .ooking at emerging markets -- ty much the argument telegraphed.y can handle this. you look at indonesia and looking at turkey having to raise rates. what you think of that? -- what the you think of that? -- what do you think of that? new.is is not really this is an issue that has been around for the last six or seven years. be the the story has to charge of the policy of the united states. sure they would like to have more influence, but we have to run monetary policy for the u.s.. countries outt of there. we can't do everything for everybody. >> yield curve flattening is on your list, there are concerns of volatility in emerging markets, particularly with oil prices rising. that the fedrned is entering a dangerous zone? >> i guess my main point would fed wasdea has been the , that out of position anything we did was inching our way back to an ordinary situation so you didn't have to think about reacting to the data. now, we are well-off. the balance sheet is shrinking. you have to take into account much more carefully and you know exactly what is

the product of trump powell, the chair of the thinkl reserve -- do you the president speaks to jay powell about interest rates? you say you will take a greater role. is there another example where you can see a model working for turkey? pres. erdogan: no. the united states interest rate policy is known. we don't need to reinvent it. we have all the information at hand. we know what the interest rate policies are and aren't in all the countries. we not just discovering them now. are not just discovering them now. we will take steps accordingly and make our assessment. we know what it is like in and britain.xico, we will always make this assessment. we will make her own decision accordingly. -- our own decision accordingly. guy: i would like to talk about what is going to happen in the upcoming elections. we have a parliamentary and a presidential election. if you found yourself in a situation where you won the presidency, but ended up in a mixed picture when it comes to 2015,ment, as it was in would you call another round of elections to make sure use occurred -- you secured the parliament

. >> jay powell, your marks for him in his debut as chair?ing well, his testimony at the initial part of january went well. talked about the importance of systematic policy and policy rules. he emphasized what he did in the last year of janet yellen's term, that is promising, normalization seems to be going well and balance sheet adjustment seems to be going well. >> is it time for the fed to rethink its policy regime, it's reaction function? >> they are in the process of doing that. not so much rethinking the reaction auction but getting back to the reaction function they have always thought about. what is promising is they talk about it a lot. you see it in reports and speeches, discussion of policy rules, such as the taylor rule. the strategies. where we are going? those things have to do with the medication at about where policy is. >> as the discussion goes on, john taylor will be a part of it. we will send it back to you in new york. david: thank you. mike mckee in stanford. you saw why the president might have thought putting him as ch

i think that jay powell, as much as he wants to normalize, needs to understand the dynamic and tready back to you. >> we're going to find a lot more in a few hours, rick, and we'll rely on you for that rick santelli in chicago >> meanwhile, dow hanging on to pretty moderate range today. down about 73 points apple has held its gains though. up about 4%. and then tonight, another chalk full of earnings spotify, square, kraft heinz, and fitbit >> a big afternoon for insurers. when you're talking about data, which we have been on the show for weeks now, the insurers are the other big boys in terms of collection all reporting after the bell >> watch all that, and we'll see what the fed says around 2:00 eastern time let's get over to scott wapner and the half >> welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner on talk trade, the apple aftermath, following the better than expected earnings report, is the stock primed for another takeoff. with us, jim, steve, pete, and with us from los angeles is kevin o'leary, the chairman of o-shares etfs and a cnbc contributor. let's begin with apple an

. >> would you prefer the fed's jay powell? know, i like her. btb bank,s the ceo of the second-biggest bank here in russia. guy: thank you very much, indeed. we're going to be hearing from the russian central bank governor in a few minutes time. petersburg international forum. all of that moderated by bloomberg's editor in chief on bloomberg tv and radio. it is going to be on life go. joining us now for a little conversation about what is happening more broadly in these markets from singapore, macro strategist mark. we got to friday, we finally made it here. i'm looking at what the reaction was to the north korea story overnight. the north koreans expressed surprise that president trump has pulled out of the talks. the markets barely blinking. why? mark: it's not really a market story at the moment. what is happened is that investors going into these talks were quite suspicious that the talks would go ahead on june 12 as planned. it seemed unlikely they would be ready for both sides to agree circumstances for talks especially since both sides we

something that mario draghi and jay powell are keeping a close eye on. -- how do you expect central-banke? obviously, draghi would love to get to the end of the consultative easing. -- the quantitative easing. giving that we possible? yes, we think it's possible. the rate outlook hasn't changed. we expect the quantitative easing to end by the end of the year. normalizationte in the first half of 2019. from that point of view, we should see some normalizing action before draghi's term ends. certainly, it has to be helpful to him and the rest of the crew to see euro-dollar trading below 117. thank you for your time, taliban. -- thank you for your time, tilmann. i said it was an m&a failure. i meant it was an rmb failure and annmarie will come and explain exactly why. a key drug study was dropped. genmab losing a fifth of its value. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european open. we are 43 minutes into the trading day. markets are closed and u.s. markets are closed later on. we do have stocks trading across the rest of the continent. they are up in europe with the exception of

jay powell has been speaking. here is tom mackenzie.well says jay financial markets have the message on gradual interest-rate increases and should not be surprised by factions. tightening has proceeded without disruption to financial markets, but he warns some investors may not be well-positioned for rate hikes. >> i do not dismiss the prospective risks in meeting with the global policy normalization. some investors and institutions may not be well-positioned for rising interest rates, even one markets anticipate. future economic conditions may surprise us, as they often do. >> china and the u.s. have clashed at the wto. beijing claims to be a defender enters trade, he says the realm of alice in wonderland, where white is black and up is down. on $150 billion of chinese imports. they said the geneva meeting was extraordinary in its intensity. president trump has spoken by phone with his counterpart after xi jinping's meetings with kim jong-un. it was their second meeting in less than two months. kim made a surprise meeting in late march

and i don't think anyone will find it different if you talk to janet yellen, stanley fischer or jay powelley would like to get rates at a level high enough to address the next problem down the road, the next time we have a recession, they have something that allows them to cut rate and not have to dip into unusual whichlike to be -- qe, are therefore crisis. they're going to be following the data. if he did is strong enough they will keep it up. i spend no time trying to believe they out there to deceive me. believeslike everybody , let's hang on every single word, it is too much. julia: it is have it. >> -- it is have it. -- it is habit. scarlet: it is recency bias. body all care about language. we read people's emotional responses to things we do but we have gone too far down to focus on every little thing. julia: what you need to see to make it more comfortable but thought you are seeing? we have midterms coming up, and a lot of policy from the u.s., moves whoon of the seen the shares down to tax reform? what do you want to see? >> 2:00 on tuesday afternoon, but happened -- what happene

i think right now that jay powell and company are hyper-focused on whether or not there is going to be a cooling in the second half of the year. and i think they have just telegraphed that, especially because they added the fact that businesses with all the trade war rhetoric could potentially be harmed and that implies that capital expenditures going up, again in the second half of the year could get hit. that dovish minutes to me. trish: okay. well then the market, the market should be celebrating this. they should be. >> should be. trish: if it is that dovish. let's not forget, shall we not, who members of the fed fundamentally are, gary kaltbaum, and that's doves, right? they always think they can get in there. they always think they can tinker. academics tend to think this way. there might be some case to be made for having the fed basically take on less influence. we can talk about that another day, but given that we know who they are, deep down inside, is danielle right? was this in fact a dovish minute report? >> they were doves yesterday, today and they will be doves going for