integl we think jay powell himself, chair powell is so he has been the anchor in keeping the consensusround three. the numbers have been good, employment is strong, inflation has been drifting up. , theythe fiscal stimulus may have overestimated that a little bit. the main thing for them will be signaling, whether they want to lock themselves into four at this point in time. they may put in three. but still going four anyways. if you signal four, it is hard to go back down from that, at this point in time. jon: we were talking earlier about the trade uncertainty right now. i wonder for all of these central banks, how can they factor in that intangible when they are trying to determine whet the -- where the economy is headed in 2019? sassan: very hard to factor. this has been the biggest risk point, for the ecb specifically, mario draghi has pointed specifically to this as a major risk point. a lot of of the threats have not materialized. some of them may july 1. we have some deadlines that come due on steel and aluminum exports. the numbers are relatively small, the markets are looking

. >> jay powell says the u.s. economy is doing well with inflation near target and unemployment low. u.s. stocks close lower in the trend year -- 10 year yield recs love it >> donald trump reignites trade tensions think he is about to confront china " very strongly." sydney, thisfro is just past 8 a.m.. i'm haidi lun. we're 12 away from the opening of asian markets. >> just past six :00 year. -- six a got here. we will look at how the asia-pacific training day is going on. only in new york but also in washington. the fed when of 25 basis points. that was expected given we are looking at new ranges for the gdp as well as the. for future rate hikes -- the dot for future rate hikes. let's go to what the chairman said to some of the economy. >> the economy is doing very well. most people want to find jobs are finding them. unemployment and inflation are low. forrest rates have been low some years while the economy has been recovering from the financial crisis. ramy: what does this all mean looking ahead? we will get t

jay powell on wage growth -- why haven't those been rising?hat is an indicator possibly of rising higher. pceis talking about core rising over 2.1%. there is a disconnect over both. al: that is true. lots of technical factors could affect that. the way i look at that, the corum, if you want to use that term, is part of the broader picture of the phillips curve relationship between unemployment and the tightness of labor markets on the one hand, and the broader inflation rate of prices generally -- did not work the way it did 20 years ago. it appears markets don't have the same kind of impact on inflation expectations as was the case when i was working at the f. it is a bit of a curiosity. i would suggest the following as an explanation. when we were using the phillips curve a lot in conducting monetary policy decisions, the fed's credibility for keeping inflion down was much lower than it is now. as we move through the 1980's and 1990's through the way the fed the hate, i think we have -- behaved, i thk we have built up credibility toward keep

francine: jay powell strikes an optimistic tone about the u.s. economy, while raising rates for the second time this year and signals more are on the way. , and couldext announce an end state to asset purchasing. but how specific will they be? and comcast gets back in the ring, offering $65 billion for 21 century fox. inwait for disney to respond the fight for rupert murdoch's empire. welcome to bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london. focus yesterday was on the fed. jay powell got through the testimony, the news conference without making waves. i am sure ecb members will want to do the same. for the moment, you can see the stoxx 600 down a half of a percent, crude oil gaining. we did have a tweet from president trump saying opec is not good enough, that oil prices are too high. we go into the opec meeting in vienna next thursday. at 1.1818. this corporate stock is leading links to technology, do not confuse it with the insurance company. talk oil, trump tweets, and later on, our brexit show. andre joined by gina miller howard john

the most important comments come from jay powell. he says the case for gradual rate increases at the fed is strong. saying the fed is 100 basis points below the neutral real rate of inflation, and estimate, an art and not a science. saying that he thinks this economy can still add more jobs. unemployment, he thinks the u.s. economy can add more jobs. he said among the prime age working group of people in the u.s., the participation rate is below historic norms. some interesting comments from powell. you have market commentators, someone on twitter said he thinks it is too aggressive and markets are now reacting. vonnie: we will get to market in a moment but the theme was the flattening of the phillips curve making it more difficult to get inflation up to target for all central banks. mario draghi it an interesting foray into the realm of fiscal policy when he talks about the new document from france and germany. almost making it sound like central bankers have done their job and it is up to governments month -- and monetary unions. :

but also some surprises for those who sat in much the entire meeting with jay powell. we will get more from our edward lorenz. >> good morning, sheryl and kristina. a quarter% of an to the interest rate to the federal open market committee would eliminate the forward guidance in their statement that talked about more rate hikes in the future and the addition of news conferences after rereading starting in january. jerome powell painted a rosy picture of the economy saying wages are rising. lower unemployment in the future. >> i think we do believe it has moved on significantly over a long period of time. it seems to be driven by slow-moving variables like the education level, functioning of the labor market, things like that. it may have moved on, to on a cyclical basis lower if the economy gets higher and higher. >> price of oil to the end of the year. an increase in inflation because of that. another uncertainty is trade policy are rising a think it's fair to say. also coming are beginning to you for the companies holding off on hiring people. right now we don't see

david: that can all with mario draghi and jay powell. stephanie: they stuck to their guns and wanting to lay out the path are moving away from bond purchasing schemes. david: market reaction -- euro against the dollar over two days. euro strengthens. how much of that is because of stronger europe and because of weaker dollar? stephanie: we have the dollar driving things more. we could see a change through the second half. alix: the dollar was strengthening because of global synchronized -- weakening because of global single night growth. now that we have a stronger dollar, i wonder what that signals about growth? marty: it will be interesting to see how the fed reacts. we are now factored in three rate hikes this year. the fed has taken a path of independence of the rest of the world. they are aware of what is happening elsewhere but it looks like the fed is intent on raising rates on this deliver course of the year. david: third story. trade. every day, trade. fascinating report on the bloomberg now -- who was on what side within the wh

>> i hope jay powell wants to stay away. >> i think he's going to his go to has been just the facts. the old sergeant friday. i think he's going to say, look, we are data dependent and we're going to go to the data. >>. >> as an investor, what are you looking for? >> i'm going to be very interested to see how the different sectors react after the session comes out. >> i'm watching how the consumer sectors are going to act past week. done better over the historically, these are not places you want to be when the fed is hiking. >> just to make it interesting, the home builders are having a terrible day but as you just said, this should all be factored in. >> i don't think the reaction is going to be as bad as the window dressing >>> as we go into this fed decision >> federal reserve raising interest rates, raising 1.75 to 2% the fed further forecasting further rate hikes are gradu increases ahead in the target range for the funds racing this is consistent with the goals -- a strong labor market and inflation near its 2% target the consensus fed forecast looking for four rate hikes this

i hope that i wish jay powell would say, look, like gary cohn once said. if you don't include amazon into your calculus of inflation, you're missing the real world. because it does it's a deflationary force. >> you know it's funny given our last conversation, obviously, about anti-trust and amazon it comes up so often as maybe the next real target. >> delrahim doesn't want to target innovation. >> you spoke to him. >> thas a big thing on facebook. >> judge leon is saying those e >> they haven't seen that much a medium. >> yeah. >> you need the government to go after these companies and i don't think the government is going to d he did say he's following the alphabet decision very closely. >> judiciary not congress. >> but he did say i asked him about alphabet in the eu hoping he would blow off the eu's big fine but he didn't do that. >> right. >> i think he has no desire to stifle innovation because he believes it keeps costs down. >> to the point that amazon continues to bring deflation is good. >> anti-trust, as judge leon says over and over again to kee

does his neutral rate framework conflict with jay powell might want to do?ght be a year or two away from that. investors watching the fed do for anything in particular we can pinpoint or are they just focused on the ump administration, the trade war, china and other factors? >> the fed is important. it is important for the u.s. and the rest of the world. the dollar is the reserve currency. if you look at the flow of funds data,, $4 trillion worth of dollar-denominated debt. the fact the fed is putting rates up, what are we seeing? rate rise.s anyone out there, a non-us government or company last taken on dollar debt has to face the int that they owed money dollars which is appreciating. you have seen the crocs that have appeared in turn key, and indonesia. india, the central bank governor complained. it is the classic phenomenon where monetary conditions tighten because the dollar is unique, conditions tighten elsewhere in the world. lower making are the dollar debt more attractive. they tighten elsewhere in the world. that is where the fed is thought of as

jay powell said he was confused yesterday. only thing they are hearing and a definitely come everything in the beige book is labor shortage, labor shortage. the highest level of compensation costs since 1984 when they founded it. we are at the same time not seeing it trickled through to wage inflation. i think that there is a little concern that there is a barbell affecting the economy, the trade, the terrorists, panic buying, and this could flameout. david: wage pressure might suggest there is not as much pressure to raise rates. are they thinking about the possibility of a downturn? they want to make sure they have something they can work with. so they can cut some rates. >> there is a will to get moving. at the same time the big theme is this overshoot and this gradualism. it seems like they are giving themselves a lot of time and taking that wait and see approach and see how things go, particularly on the inflation front. david: how bloomberg view columnist, thank you for being with us. this is time for bloomberg business

stephanie: when you listen to them talk, jay powell was how poor the about economy is to have a tightor market we are having now. you wouldn't say that the communication suggest they do have that? larry: i think you pick up substantial concern in the united states about the phillips curve and inflation as well as picking up concerned about maintaining the momentum of output. shy at certain points about being a sharp critic about central-bank policy. i think the response to necessity, central banks have tended to move towards a posture of recognizing the secular stagnation threat, and being prepared to keep interest rates low. they just need to be prepared to stick with it and not confuse the results of successful policy with the lack of need for strong policy. stephanie: jay powell said that maybe he was going to deemphasize the unobservable concepts like the not central rate or the natural rate of policy employment. do you think the natural rate has any meaning in the world? ry: jay powell, i think got it just right when he applied that notion to the natural rate of unemployment. it

we heard from jay powell this morning. about how the fed funds rate will be neutral relatively soon. i actually brought this chart up before. i want to bring it up again mode actually shows the fed funds rate is already at that neutral rate. that is a conceptual rate. i think what a lot of people will agree with is that we are nearing the end of this targeting cycle, in the back half. we are perhaps inhe0th time. of regular we will see how it goes, but it does indicate they will not be able to raise as much anymore. rishaad: or do they give manchester united extra time? let's turn it over to haidi. haidi: i'm going to brush up on my football analogies before tomorrow. i'm taking a look at the u.s. dollar. at the ricocheting affect we have in a bloomberg dollar index overnig, it pulled back and we're not quite sure where he goes next. if you are a dollar ball, you might want to be convinced in this chart. indexoomberg dollar spot formed this golden cross earlier this week. it is when the 500 day moving average crosses the 2

federal reserve chair jay powell who last week said that the jobs picture wasn't particularly rosy and neither of those rallied the precious metals which was odd the gold close yesterday at twelve fifty one was the lowest since december thirteenth of last year as time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return we have a look see at the revenues of the fashion industry with our chief correspondent tricky job plus i have a few thoughts about a misstatement earlier today by a top trumpet ministration of vishal it involves numbers and those numbers to mean something as we go to break here are numbers at the closing bell oil up more than one percent and pushing towards seventy five dollars at the closing bell we'll be right back. right we'll send started five times that he has this economic. he's not going to talk about no fly just me right after the mars explorers what do you put it there to. record. to say well we don't. know palace rome well welcome to sophie and co i'm so sorry shevardnadze and today i woke up lots to talk about in our program and our guest is. the uk th

though will chairman jay powell signaling faster pace of rate hikes in the coming month.tributor john thomas, chief investment officer at global wealth management. good morning. thank you for joining us. i know the market right now has priced them essentially a rate hike for this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. what about that.plot, which pretty much projects future interest rate hikes in the future. that said doesn't want to type up this, but it's what the market cares about. >> well, and the r going higher than ear rates in tenure based, which are around 3% now. there's a very limited room here of how much higher they can go. they also can't go higher than other countries was still substantially lower interest rates about the flood of money coming in, which could potentially hurt the economy. there's a limit here what th're going to do based on the other improving but are nowhere near high inflation growth expectations like we had either. krthank jonathan. i just want to switch it over now. can you explain why the language is so important in these meetings. we often parse over t

has beenhat gilt emphasizing --jay powell has been emphasizing. david: thank you very much.e waiting for wilbur ross. onwelcome now listeners bloomberg radio and bloomberg television as we talk with the man at the center of the united states trade policy, secretary of commerce wilbur ross coming from the select usa investment summit in washington. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for having me on. david: we have been focusing on what central bankers have been saying. jay powell talk yesterday about seeingent to which he is businesses really looking at the trade nsions, frictions, even in severe war. this and to what he had to say. -- listen to what he had to say. >> we have a wide range of contacts in that this is world in the u.s. and around the world. they continually an increasingly expressed concern over trade developments. those concerns seem to be rising. for the first time we are hearing about decisions to postpone investment and hiring. david: you heard what he had to say. he is seeing postponement of decisions to invest. are you seeing that? , i am here at

is the message that jay powell wants to give to the world. look at the global balance sheets around the world, the bank of japan is going to continue to add global they will not be higher than 1.5% next year. rememberoyd warning us 1994? i'm happy you mentioned that balance sheet. if we look at the forecast around the market, it is all about rates. are we talking enough about the size, where is the fed's balance sheet going to end? let's be clear on this. the fed is going to keep liquidity. that is going to be the security blanket. that is going to provide a lot of comfort. we are not talking enough about that yet. there is going to be a big reduction in risk when the fed communicates- their balance sheet projections over the long-term. anna: one commentator was talking about how this is the elephant in the room for the fed. fed putback for equity markets? >> i think that is going to be the new normal. it is going to come hand-in-hand with economic growth. the level at which short-term rates become sensitive to changes at the balance sheet, t

john: what really stuck out to me today was how positive jay powell was about the economy, he couldn'tsay often enough how strong the labor market is, how strong economic growth is and also how inflation is near the fed's 2% target. you know, it looks like a goldy lock's economy r now and what i would be worried about if i were in the markets out there is that these are the moments when you start seeing excesses build. when everything is looking great, something is overshooting. jay powell is very confident, very positive, you have to start wondering if they are getting complacent. cheryl: dow at session lows, andy, did he miss anything, did he miss the mark? >> absolutely, i think there's tremendous systematic risk in the markets right now. i think it starts with the merging markets, i think they are teetering and i don't think europe is much better. what i'm really looking forward to see tomorrow is what droghi says, he sees it and powell doesn't. it'll be a big problem in 3 to 6 months. jon is absolutely right. he was very positive on the u.s. economy, did a great job to soothe thin

to accelerate too >> jay powell did note oil prices, and we'll see higher than the target rate of thinflation in f because of the higher oil prices. nigh own view is we'll s some overheating. the fed has rcheted up four rate hikes, instead of three. the problem is we're ratcheting up inflati as well due to tariffs, so a y the factors together, we like a warming trend, we don'tant an overall hot flash that's really, really bad for the u.s. economy. we don't wayne to fry here. >>> you're a economist not a forecaster, but is th the environmental where profit grow? can continue to we're really running off the rox cuts this year that will support profith along with strong revenue growth. we do have margins n bit as we move into 2019. that's because we are wages to pick up, but also costs are picking up, everything from energy t prices some of those tariff costs and the costs of materials in those are things that happen later in a cycle. this year will probably be theb est in profit growth. >> diane, thanks again for joining us tonht. >>> well, the economy of today is all drawing some comparisons t

if i were jay powell and asked about tariffs i would say that is none of my business. is what i would say. my business is monetary policy. and so we need to get rates up. by the way, i have a quick comment on tariffs. you know people hear this over and over, putting a 25% tariff on canadian steel is a attacking our friends. they're attacking ourhat about g tax rates on wealthy americans and successful business people in america? is that attacking our friendly family? like i don't ever hear people talk about that. so -- neil: very good point. >> what is fascinating about this, i love, in a way, i love pressure because what happens is that peopl say nonsensical things, they expose themselves because they're willing to raise taxes onsuccesn america but they don't want to raise taxes on canadians. and so tha is hypocritical. neil: we should point out no less than alan greenspan, not a bug -- big fan of this president, cutting corporate taxes in particular is a godsend. he has been srtive of how that stimulated activity to the point we can do a lot of what we're doing, comi

tomorrow, federal reserve chairman jay powell will announce that they are almost certain the latest hiken interest rates expected to top 25 basis points. the ecb and doj decisions both hang in the balance this week as well. joining us is genus molech -- smaller.ech -- gina gina: the meeting starts in washington and it is going to be a really interesting meeting. the rate hike almost guaranteed and we basically know it's happening in markets expected. what's more interesting is the and there'sjections a good chance we could get another hike and is a good chance there going to change the employer forecast i think those two things are something to watch when the numbers drop. vonnie: what should we expect we see those economic projections and the sort of looks like right now. jeanna: the first one is the obvious point that everyone is talking about which is how many rate hikes do we have? can we get one more or do we think we get to more? the second question is how i is that terminal rate? do they move up the furthest hike out in the hiking cycle and can that you higher because that would b

federal reserve chair jay powell who last week said that the jobs picture wasn't particularly rosy and neither of those rallied the precious metals which was odd the gold close yesterday at twelve fifty one was the lowest since december thirteenth of last year and it's time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return we have a look see at the revenues of the fashion industry with our chief correspondent tricky job plus i have a few thoughts about a mistake earlier today by a top trumpets in a stray shot of vishal it involves numbers and those numbers to mean something as we go to break here are numbers at the closing bell oil up more than one percent and pushing towards seventy five dollars at the closing bell we'll be right back. financials along today with the money morning first to this is this is a see this is. this is a good start well we have our three banks all set up something in your something in them. something over the cayman island to do all these banks are complicit in or. to do some serious money laundering ok let's see how we did while we. watch for max an

backed off a bit i think that jay powell is doing a great job communicating. maybe the best communicator i've seen running the fed i've been monitoring it basically since 1978 and i think that his message is reflected in the markets i think the key tomorrow is going to be whether we take out some of these key resistance levels if i was a trader i would look at the response in most sectors. almost got your toes wet but eased back a bit i would think when we come in tomorrow, if the 10-year isn't well above 3%, then you'll see this thing ease off as we move and distance ourselves from the fed. then put the europeans in the box. but that could have a distort. with the post-fed process of pricing in the fixed income markets. >> there's some good alliteration kenny will continue the theme. there was once upon a time if they came out with this, the market would have been down more >> i think rick is right he's got this kind of style in this way about him i think janet did too. but i think the problem is we were in a different time when janet was fed chair. people we

david: is mario draghi catching up with jay powell?n: he is, but both are moving in the direction of tightening. mario draghi seems more effective at sounding dovish in the prospects, than powell. the has learned to be able to ease well with words, holding off on future tightening. if you think about this, go year ahead, honestly the federal reserve will be closer to the end of its tightening cycle and the ecb will just be beginning. global recessions, bear in mind, it was 2009, before that it was world war ii before the book of the world economy was going at the same time. recessions tend to be regional. the u.s. will have impact on the rest of the world, but even that is beyond probably 2019. alix: you can see it reflected in the treasury bund spread, almost 260 basis points. the trade going in, you would actually be shorting bunds and you will see the spread narrowed, and that in no way has played out. steven: we would not put the money to work in the bund market. this is not necessarily winning trades, when central banks can purcha

jay powell is shaking things up at the fed chair considering a plan keep people guessing about the outcome of policy meetings. but we could see a lot more of him every meeting. we wilplain. stay with us. to your bumper, cause.... i don't think enough people heard about your big day. but nothing says "we got married" like a 12 ounce piece of scrap metal. yo! we got married! honk if you like joint assets. now you're so busy soaking up all this attention, you don't see the car in front of you. and if i can crash your "perfect day", imagine what i can do to the rest of 'em. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem. like me. this is a jungle gym... and a baseball diamond... ...a mythical castle ...and a grand banquet hall. this is not just a yard. it's where memories are made. the john deere x350 select series with the exclusive one-touch mulchcontrol system. nothing runs like a deere™ save $300 on the x350 select series™ tractors with the purchase of a mulchcontrol™ kit. and that's how he intended to keep it. then he met the love of his life. who came with a three foot, two inch bo

federal reserve chair jay powell who last week said that the jobs picture wasn't particularly rosy and neither of those rallied the precious metals which was odd the gold close yesterday at twelve fifty one was the lowest since december thirteenth of last year as time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return we have a look see at the revenues of the fashion industry with our chief correspondent treaty plus i have a few thoughts about a misstatement earlier today by a top trump in astray should a visual that involves numbers and those numbers to mean something as we go to break here our numbers at the closing bell oil up more than one percent and pushing for seventy five dollars at the closing bell we'll be right back. plate for many flips over the years so i know the game and sorry guys. the ball isn't only about what happens on the pitch for the final school it's about the. passion from the fans it's the age of the superman each kill the narrowness and spending two hundred twenty million on one player. it's an experience like nothing else on to because i want to shar

federal reserve chair jay powell who last week said that the jobs picture wasn't particularly rosy and neither of those rallied the precious metals which was odd the gold close yesterday at twelve fifty one was the lowest since december thirteenth of last year as time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return we have a look see at the revenues of the fashion industry with our chief correspondent treat them plus i have a few thoughts about a mistake earlier today by a top trumpets in astray should a visual it involves numbers and those numbers to mean something as we go to break here are numbers at the closing bell oil up more than one percent and pushing towards seventy five dollars at the closing bell we'll be right back. and shoot camera. to me once the show and some for the. videos to come.

dividend plans to receive much pushback from the federal reserve under the new leadership of chairman jay powell. president donald trump's trade policies are now coming in for criticism from two pillars of support for his republican party on friday both the business roundtable and the u.s. chamber of commerce raise red flags over the impact of chinese retaliation and the prospect of further escalations the business roundtable a group of corporate c.e.o.'s posted a statement opposing president trump's recent imposition of tariffs on fifty billion dollars of chinese imports to the u.s. walks pressing sympathy for some of president trump's complaints about china's trade policies perhaps the round table opposed what they called quote the administration's misguided focus on temporarily reducing america's trade deficit with china through goods purchased the trump a bit of traction previously attempted to float a package of supposedly chinese promises to buy more from the u.s. as they gain from a confrontation only to see if chinese the chinese deny such commitments the chamber of commerce president to

is at risk of sliding into a recession even as the federal reserve as was reiterated by jay powell just last week in portugal that the federal reserve intends to raise interest rates four more times before all is said and done to get from two percent to three percent the implication for the yield curve is that it would indeed invert based on federal reserve actions to come that's very interesting thank you for explaining it are you personally concerned right now or are you think it's going to be ok. well look today we saw some consumer confidence numbers come out and it's very distressing to me when households report that their expectations for income growth are falling and yet that's what we were starting to see come out of the household sector we know that in certain pockets of the labor market that you could name your price as an employee and that that is having a detrimental effect on employers and their profits and my concern is again if hell soldier starting to see that there are fewer job opportunities out there and or that they have less in terms of power to ask for that price r

could be talking about what's going to be happening at the meeting in between june and september if jay powell is going to actually be a mature adult and have every single f o m c meeting be alive instead of half of them being neutralized which was in my opinion a very misguided policy implemented by ben bernanke so you're view is that these meetings should be not open or what they should they should all be like i agree with you now why in the world should taxpayers have to foot the bill for for meetings if policymakers are going to be so paralyzed that they can't take any action because they don't have a press conference afterwards to explain themselves you make every meeting live and then the fed has much more flexibility and transparency with the public you know and you don't necessarily need a press conference if you just watch the deal you can count on the i don't know news networks to do the news and people that comment upon what they've done but i agree more transparency the better your let me ask you about housing you know we did see housing construction increases in april and we spent

central banks making headlines today, jay powell facing criticism.d of the central bank in powell --ng that jay the rate decision coming up in australia in a few hours. not pulling any punches. >> you make a point. when you put in article, an op-ed in the financial times, exactly what he did, basically saying one big reason why emerging markets have been in turmoil is because of the fed. the title is "emerging markets face double dollar whammy." you said it is not a fed rate hike, it is the fact that the fed is tapering down its balance sheet, at the same time the u.s. treasury department has boosted the issuance of notes and bonds to finance the tax cuts. he says that this is a problem, it is slowing down global growth. his plea is slow down the tapering to stop the turmoil. this is what he said. "dollar funding has evaporated from sovereign debt markets, emerging market have witnessed a sharp reversal of capital flows for the past six weeks, often exceeding five fillon dollars a week, as a result currencies have fallen in value." he says the fed ne

rishaad: tell me something, is jay powell behind or ahead of the curve in your view?le bit ahead of the curve, in so far that we have not yet determined what extent the economy will keep its momentum, or after we take away coming through or takeaway the fuel price effect on inflation. i think jay powell is trying to steer the rate hike cost along the right trajectory. there in mind the balance sheet reductions that are taking place we tend toground, discount that. the fed normalization overall remains quite robust, especially when compared on relative terms to what other central banks are doing, edging forward a little and then scaling back, so on and so forth. whetherwant to watch is the vice chair follows up on what he said about neutral rates. m neutl rates, ande not very far that is at odds with u.s. activity picking up momentum. tot really leads us determine how much further the fed would go beyond neutral rates, and that is the clarity i think markets are looking for. rishaad: i'm just going to bring in our economics corresponding. reporter: do you have any thou

dividend plans to receive much pushback from the federal reserve under the new leadership of chairman jay powell. president donald trump's trade policies are now coming in for criticism from two pillars of support for his republican party on friday both the business roundtable and the u.s. chamber of commerce raise red flags over the impact of chinese retaliation and the prospect of further escalations the business roundtable a group of corporate c.e.o.'s posted a statement opposing president trump's recent imposition of tariffs on fifty billion dollars of chinese imports to the u.s. walks pressing sympathy for some of president trump's complaints about china's trade policies perhaps the round table opposed what they called quote the administration's misguided focus on temporarily reducing america's trade deficit with china through goods purchased the trumpet ministration previously attempted to float a package of supposedly chinese promises to buy more from the u.s. as they gain from a confrontation only to see if chinese the chinese deny such commitments the chamber of commerce president tom d

all of the central bankers, whether jay powell, draghi, kuroda, their main concern at this stage is aboutalating trade tension. there hasn't been any hard data showing at this stage it is already starting to negatively impact economic activity, but they are concerned if things really do deteriorate. it is important to remember these tariffs announced by the u.s. and china -- at this stage, the economic impact is fairly negligible, but it is the threat and the threat of more inward looking trade policy that is a major headwind to the global economic activity. rishaad: absolutely, and if you have a lessening of global economic activity, you have a lessening of trading activity -- fx trading activity. a dollar one which actually gains on the back of it or the other way around? the imf on what higher currencies would mean came to the conclusion it would be dollar supportive because it would filter through higher willtion, meaning the fed probably have to raise rates faster than anticipated. it is also a lower current account deficit for the u.s.. it triggers a little bit of financial tension

that's what the fed is remaining vigilant and in my opinion doing a good job under jay powell. the short end is going to be firm trying to figure out why the long end is not critical our economy is doing pretty good and yield should have been higher global forces keeping the curb flatten and it is going to potentially give a window for more horsepower in the equity market and i am not sure how long we could benefit from that market >> larry, are you sa iiying thaf we did not have the dispute from china right now and everybody else that the stock market would be raising ahead >> yeah, kel,ly, one of the rea concerns that we have is interest rates are moving up quickly. investors where uncomfortable of the grand scheme of thing. it is enough to derrel houail h and slow aspects of the company. short term yields are moving off. that yield curve is not signaling a recession. it is signaling the have's and the have's not we want to keep it that way and we think the fed is doing a good job. i this i the fundamental backdrop ireally solid and investors have focus on earnings and the ta

clearly dominated from what we got from jay powell in the federal reserve, increasing the amount of perspective rate hikes to four. bydownplayed the hawkishness the market. we got a choppy session. down by 1.5%.ow the nasdaq is outperforming. the real waste in the session, down 4.5% and that is why we hone in as well. the at&t and time warner decision, waiting forom matheir offer for the asset 20th century fox and they did that 4:00 p.m. eastern, topping e previous proposal from disney. they are providing an all-cash offer reflecting a $55 billion value -- $65 billion value. a 19% premium over the disney offer per share. how long does it take for disned what's you miss? the court rejected the department of justice's argument that the at&t and time warner merger would hurt consumer choice and lead to higher cable bills. but the target was the issue. that is what bloomberg opinion columnist says and he joins us now. >> nice to be here. >> you are saying it is politics. perhaps, you would not have made in a different light. >> i'm not saying it is politics, i saying it is down dumb.- it is [laught

we heard from jay powell earlier saying trade could affect their outlook for economic and monetary policye gone far enough and are set to start dialing back? that is still an assessment people are making. haidi: adam, it looks like that triple-r cut with not enough to convince investors. guest: we are still at that 19.6% level from heading into the bear market. we are so far down off the january highs. a is difficult to see situation where domestic stocks in china can get any kind of relief rally. no sign of any sustainable move. we have the weakness of the currency. there is also the pace of how much that currency move happened. as you say, that triple r cut not really swaying anyone. investors are taking a wait-and-see approach. haidi: the bloomberg global markets editor. e some of those charts on gtv on the bloomberg terminal. the growing trade tensions between the u.s. and china is a problem for australia. china is its biggest customer and the u.s., its largest investor. joining us for an exclusive interview is john lorde. great to have you with us. looking at the narrative overnight,

will jay powell answer them? we have to wait and see. david: three or four hikes this year, the top line shows what the market this. that is a little below 3.5 this year. right in between. the yellow line is next year, closer to 2. what will you be looking at? >> for the treasury market, it is not so much the case of hikes but how much will be the endgame. the number of hikes between now and the end of 2019? that will be the key. looking at stops, not so much for the pace, but more for what is the terminal rate, will be ultimately important for five-year bonds or 10 year notes or even auto loans. most auto loans are priced off five-year debt, because of that, g go?nt to know how high the ife important, they will hike in january december -- doesn't matter. shery: back in march, mr. powell showing concern over uncertainty. in europe, could this have an impact on what he decides to do and in the future? >> certainly in the future. there will have to be an announcement thathere are risks in the market. when you look at u.s. data, yesterday's

markets going into the announcement for jay powell, from the ecb, we will take that statement, marketsoard, and the worst performer, korea, what roseanne barr wants you to know, the embroiled start back on twitter, what she says about herself this morning, target under fire, take a look at this. we have backlash coming up. the u.s. open seeing up half an hour from now. we will tell you about the tournament and a look at the best vacation destinations this summer. we are coming to you live from the u.s. open. building with anticipation, the department of justice ig report and handling the hillary clinton email probe will be made public today. politicians are bracing for the impact of this report with rudy giuliani giving a preview of what he thinks it will reveal when it comes to jim comey. >> i don't know the report in detail, and from the leaks, you wonder how they take place how it is going to criticize heavily for its first hillary press conference and the second hillary press conference. >> in your mind. >> he became the atty. gen.. he is director of the fbi. >> fox news legal anal

there is a hurdle big high enough that in events you could get jay powell out of his comfort zone, butre comfortable in market volatility, much more comfortable in having markets determine prices and probably more comfortable and confident that market economies generate good outcomes if you don't get in the way >> i'll tell you what. every trader i talk to has this real deep feeling for exactly what we're talking about traders like the markets to create the outcomes, not preet designed by policymakers which leads me to mario. we have a minute left. i don't understand it. for awhile the big term in the world was synchronized growth. i don't understand how he's going to synchronize policy to such a varied group of countries and economies whose personal citizens do not really want to meld cultures, which make it is difficult to meld financial cultures your thoughts? >> think about economic performance. italy hasn't even recovered its level of real gdp back in 2008 the experience some of those economies like germany were working above capacity some are still considerably below capacity har

. >> i thought jay powell was cool. what about the fed? never know what can happen in washington, d.c. we may have the beginning of the china trade war because we'll officially level tariffs on some of their items. >> if there was a negative outcome from the trade war maybe the feds wouldn't be raising rates and markets would go up even more. right now the market is showing signs of health. you are seeing the growth coming out there is in line. charles: then it would be goldie locks. coming up. kathy griffin is back and foul as ever. reinforcing that all black people coming comedians are supposed to hate and insult president trump. this is no ordinary coffee. it's single-origin kenyan coffee from the nyeri highlands, 6,000 feet above sea level. but how do you really know that the beans journeyed to the port of mombasa and across the pacific? that you can trust they're 100% authentic? ibm blockchain. a smart way to track every step, ensuring this coffee did indeed come from 6,000 feet above sea level. and not a foot lower. ♪ ♪ retail. under

by the way, we have a big fed decision coming up >> we do it's jay powell's second press conference lasttook 43 of his 60 allotted minutes was quick. i'm done let's go b of a is expecting four rate hikes in 2018. joining people thought to be way too hawkish. now it seems to be coming into the main stream. i don't think the market has four rate hikes priced in at all. >> why >> i think the market has started to factor in mario brinking, even though other people obviously >> define blinking what does that mean? if he brinlinks? >> that means he'll allude to december the bigger of the two meetings next week, is the ecbs by far i think he blinks next week. >> who is more important for our viewer and listeners' money. stock market, bond market. who is more important, our federal reserve or the european central bank >> right now, the european central bank is more important for the very reason that if they follow through with tapering their purchases, we hit a net negative on quantitative easing. >> which they're staill doing. >> yes >> they're still doing it. they're calm of years behind us. >

the most important comments come from jay powell. he says the case for gradual rate increases at the fed is strong. saying the fed is 100 basis points below the neutral real rate of inflation, and estimate, an art and not a science. saying that he thinks this economy can still add more jobs. unemployment, he thinks the u.s. economy can add more jobs.

people may think it still does to that end, there's three basis points would jay powell, who we bothg sevens to tens, a precursor to the entire curve converting if you wanted to raise rates? >> it's definitely at the forefront of their mind. however the feds changed their protocol at this point in time four rate hikes next year, three the next and one the following year we'll have to prepare for higher rates going forward insofar that growth continues approximately 3.7%, that's a powerful metric for them to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future as we approach the inversion, that's not necessarily a warning bell to go off in fact, while it's a signal of recession it's not necessarily a signal of timing recession. >> there will be a whole lot more fed speak, i think, moving forward in my crystal ball, about inversion of curves and why you shouldn't be too nervous about them do you think that's gone >> i think it's coming investors have an easy way to do it. >> stay in the front we agree with that thank you for joining me jon? i'm sorry, it's now carl back to you. >> no, it'

gerri: jay powell speaking at the ecb event in portugal today. what are you expecting?pect mr. powell to deviate from what he said at the recent meeting. it will be interesting to see if he deviates in the context of the escalation in the rhetoric between u.s. and china or possible consequences to u.s. growth. i can't imagine his message will be significantly different than what it was two weeks ago. gerri: michael huson from london. cheryl: now it is time for maria bartiromo. good morning. >> hey there, ladies. good morning to you. i maria bartiromo and is wednesday june 20th. top stories right now 6:00 a.m. on the east coast. president trump highlighting why the administration is taking action to address the trade imbalance with china. >> you see what is happening with china. we have no choice. they should've done many years ago. we are going to get smart and do it right. maria: markets yesterday seen or covered this morning. features indicate a gain of better than 100 points. a third of a percent higher in the not deck this morning. this comes after big declines acro