fed chair jay powell suggested the fomc is ready to wait and watch the economy before it raises its keyagain you this after a job report supporting powell's view the u.s. economy is still strong. kathleen hays is here. this of course comes as we see this blowup jobs report one day after a scary manufacturing report. there seems to be a battle between soft and hard data. what it boils down to is the jobs report is the most u.s.tant report in the that comes out every month, the most comprehensive, the whole country, all industries, leading indicators, coincident indicators. that is why jay powell spoke of it very favorably. let's look at the numbers everyone knows what we are talking about. payrolls came in, they were up 312,000. the forecast was 184,000. 1.5 times that anyone was looking for in terms of consensus. as the jobs group, there was 58,000 more added to the previous months. the unemployment rate did rise. let's move on to the next point. what is going on? unemployment rate jumped. why did we think it was still strong? other evidence suggests it is getting higher because more pe

these are things jay powell is understanding. he is paying attention to ceos of caterpillar and apple. he is listening. charles: great stuff, appreciate it. the dow jumped big time as soon as number came out. for more what is happening let's go to gerri willis on the floor of the new york stock exchange. gerri, it made an explosive move on the statement. >> it did. we saw a pop on the dow of 40 points. came back down. people down here regard the statement postively. we have to wait until the federal reserve chairman actually makes comments. people question him to get all detail. just as i was coming to air, trader came over to me, gerri, the yield curve is steepening in response to this. so this is good news. what they like about these comments, the news we have right now from the federal reserve they're offering new guidance on the balance sheet. this is the number one concern of traders down here, that they are willing to adjust the balance sheet as needed, based on the economy, based on markets, that is good news. they say the

, thank you very much. >> thank you [ applause ] >> well, that was fed chair jay powell along with former fed chairs janet yellen, ben bernanke, speaking in a highly anticipated, closely watched panel at the american economic association annual meeting in atlanta. the discussion moving markets. fed chair powell saying the fed is prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly, based on how the economy performs here is jerome powell's thoughts on this, talking about the fed strategy a little while ago. >> with the muted inflation readings we've seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves but we're always prepared to shift the stance of policy and to shift it significantly if necessary in order to promote statutory goals of maximum employment and stable prices >> stocks are near session highs at this hour the dow up 622 points, 2.75% now, basically taking back losses in yesterday's ugly trading session. s&p up 2.8%, nasdaq up 3.6%, and the nasdaq 100 up just about 4% as well. tech stocks and material stocks are leading the gains today, but every sector in th

we heard from jay powell. yellen responding to what jay powell had to say, what jay powell had to say the chairman of the federal reserve moved markets. we were up 380, 400. we're now almost up 600 points. re-emphasize what he said there. the economic data is still very strong. he mentioned unemployment numbers today. strong, participation rates are up. he also said wages were moving up gradually. he didn't have concerns about inflation. with regard to muted inflation we'll be patient. with regard to the balance sheet which has taken away lot of liquidity in the markets, some believe bigger factor than rate increases he said look, we have all the tools at, available to us. we are prepared to adjust he says gradually and predictably dues the balance sheet but we can adjust if we believe we have to. all those very dovish comments. in other words we're not continuing on autopilot which he said earlier in another press conference that worried markets. that the fed would go ahead make moves without regard going on

jay powell: we would not hesitate to make a change.f we came to the view that the balance sheet normalization plan or any other aspect was part of the problem, we would not hesitate to make a change. alix: but the fed has stood by its idea that it is not quantitative tightening that is hurting the markets, what the you think? think in a sense -- i that was almost the most important line of what he said, because in the mid december meeting the market was deeply disappointed that the balance sheet remained on automatic. and he has now signaled that they are prepared to stop that and consider other options, if needed. this is the beginning of the move from the fed to stop in the balance sheet tightening. and putting it on hold for an extended period. i think it is encouraging and i think that was the key line, the shift in language from mid-december that was on friday. so i was encouraged by that. david: one of the things you have a focused on is m1 and other money supply and the way it has been treated globally as a percentage of gdp. i

that would give jay powell a lot more room. i think he would have been speaking about this a little more better and a little more clearly had that been the case. this speechaid, today might be the case for powell to sound a little steadier that he has and not be dumping all over the place from speech to speech. alix: yeah. was it a rookie mistake, with the learning how to do press conferences? thanks very much. don't miss our coverage of fed chair jay powell with david rubenstein. check it out on bloomberg tv and radio. it is going to be the have and have-nots, the retail holiday season, as we head into. great, missed at least one estimate, despite the fact that the company saw full-year earnings on the low end actually revised higher. that was the good part. november, december comp sales rose over what percent, and they boosted sales estimates and earnings estimates for the november and december timeframe, but they are missing one estimate, apparently triggering the stock. david: you wonder if estimates are too high. people th

folks watching the fundamentals of individual stock stories and also the broader conversation with jay powell, concerns about where yields go. shery: very interesting to hear chairman powell's remarks. really reiterating the cautious optimism that he said last week. he is talking about concerns about global growth, although he says he sees another your of solid growth in china. , as you talkedg about the market selloff, a little bit of downside today. that selloff pressuring financial conditions. showing theg financial conditions have been easing in the last few days, really getting close to that more accommodative stance around that zero level. my chart, you can see the u.s. financial conditions index. and that is in blue. you can also see the global conditions easing as well. that is in white. chair powell really had some interesting remarks today in terms of if he is taking any political pressure into account, saying that does not really factor into his calculations. also saying the fed is really waiting and watching to be patient and flexible. notas talking about tariffs having much of a

no matter what, jay powell not concern this. -- jay powell is not going to concern this.on the brink of some kind of we rating in the market when you have a shorter end of the curve inverting? the market is increasingly concerned about a recession in late 2019, and that is the impetus for a cut. that is what needs to concern the fed, the market is increasingly pricing in a recession. you have a scenario where every retail investor and technician hates this market and every strategist likes it, because the normal indicators of recession are not flashing. but you also have this confidence issue where the markets do not trust the economic data or the central bank, or fiscal policymakers. are looking out and not being pushed by inflation and you are close to the zero bound, it is prudent in our view to just take a pause, see how things go, and look, if we wake up in six months and everything is fine, get back on the horse. if not, you have not exacerbated going to far. alix: steve chiavarone, you will be sticking with us. livext, we will have coverage of fed chair jay powell,

lauren: the great rate debate, federal reserve chair jay powell speaks today.certainly react. cheryl: taking a look at what investors are watching, it's about the shutdown, it's about trade, after four days of gains futures are negative this morning. dow down 96, s&p 12.5, nasdaq down 36 and a quarter. lauren: after eight days of gains for oil prices, they're down as well, down 23-cents. cheryl: european markets on this thursday, initially they opened in the green. not anymore. ftse, cac, dax, all negative. lauren: i have one green arrow for you it is, the hang seng is up about a fifth of 1%. the rest of asia is lower. cheryl: the richest man in the world filing for divorce. could amazon shareholders be impacted? "fbn: a.m." continues right now. we're approaching 5:30 a.m. in new york. it's thursday, it's january 10th. good morning, i'm cheryl casone. lauren: good morning, i'm lauren simonetti. let's talk about the stock market. this has been a nice start to 2019. the dow is up more than 2% this year and we got comments yesterday from the fed chairman, jay powe

is why the markets are welcoming what jay powell said on friday. he is just talking about the possibility of a pause. there are other central bankers out there talking about the possibility of more accommodation. that leaves us in a dangerous spot. either for theed central bank to turnaround completely or what would be much more welcome would be for the data to get strong enough to get markets convinced that we don't need lower rates. markets again getting a bit o ahead of themselves. what happens to the dollar? with that kind of expanded space, with the fed waiting and seeing and maybe more room for the dollar to move lower which is what goldman sachs is saying. garfield: i think that is what risk assets want. when thelot of angst dollar was so strong. a weaker dollar would help a lot of places around the world. how closely should markets be watching the trade talks in beijing between the u.s. and china? they are just working level talks, how important are they? garfield: i think it is more that they are important from the point of view of creatin

we think jay powell is on hold until september.he market should be vigilant of is the seasonal factors in the first quarter are just askew in this business cycle. keep in mind minimum wages went up in a lot of states this year, just like they did last year. do not be surprised by a bit of a jump in wages on the it mayent report free of not be shocked by that. i think the market would not take it well, but i don't think it holds. taylor: noelle, jobs report, the fed, does anything change? noelle: i think the fed goes in june, and that is largely on the growth and inflation picture kind of stabilizing from here. in terms of next week, not much is going to change from the rhetoric we have seen earlier this month. as we get into march, that will be a little more interesting because nothing is -- barely anything is priced in for 2019 in terms of hikes. we will get to the scenario where growth and inflation is supportive but the market is , not. the fed is going to have to start to shift their rhetoric a little bit. that will be interest

worst of all, as i mentioned many times, in october, jay powell came out and warned us he was planningaggressively raise interest rates something that caused a huge panning in the stock market that we're trying to recover from just as powell was telling us that business was really scorching, and we needed maybe four tightenings to cool it down, we started seeing signs that the economy was slowing real weakness in housing, autos, construction, chemicals, all the industries that tend to peak first. between the president's trade war and the government shutdown, the market kept getting slams. from the highs in september to the intra day nader, it had plujed 26% since then, we have been bouncing, including today's move, aided by a strong employment number and a fed chairman who has suddenly seen the light when it comes to what's happening in the economy. the s&p is up8% from the boxing day lows the mark was up nearly 3.3%, 3.3% from president trutresidens inaugurati inauguration like we rolled back the entire trump rally. i think that's crazy at the same time, everybody was worried about a

if the data is still seen azrieltively stable. >> and i think the other thing jay powell is going to say, look, we have a data drought not going to get gdp out now so that does, that gives further cloudiness to the whole thing. >> flying on instruments right now. >> thank you all great stuff. lindsey, david and alicia is sticking around. steve liesman, appreciate it >> to the market's response, bob pisani, they like what they hear so far, yes? >> yes because they got the two thipgs they want number one, they wanted to have jay powell's comment in december b about being patient inserted that's what happened and they wanted to see comments they would make changes in their bans balance sheet it's like the markets wrote this, 26.60 we started out on the s&p 500 we're at 26.79 now let me tell you, what's the good news the bad news, the market's getting pricey now we are above the e recent trading range we've seen bulls might say that's a good thi thing, but we're not pricing in a dovish thread now. we're pricing in positive trade talk outlook we're price iing in a bumpy, bu okay earnings.

i think president trump would benefit and i think jay powell would benefit.athan: larry kudlow there earlier. what a meeting between the chairman of the fed and the president of the united states would mean to you. it's not unusual for the president to meet with the fed chair. it's a very peculiar time right now. >> i think it would be a very you haveg because here two of the most important individuals in our government and for them to communicate and exchange ideas and opinions and facts would be very important. yes, the fed should be independent but the fed should really be empathetic with the role of government and its affect on the real economy. i think president trump could learn some things about how the fed operates and the things the fed is looking at. they rely on historic business cycles of the time with zero money policy, things we have today are very distorted so it's a difficult time for the fed because the past is not future and that's one of their big problems is thinking this is a normal cycle and they will do what they did. a really it's diff

jay powell founded industrials group at carlisle. he speaks to ceo's. he paid attention to the fedex profit warning. he is going to pay attention to the upcoming earnings season. he sees disconnects between the hard economic data and what companies -- charles: why does the dot plot say two more rate hikes? why was that the message sent then? that scared the hell out of market? >> it did but by the same token, powell does not like the dot plat. this is simply 17 individuals inputs you can't gather too much about it. charlie evans is the biggest dove we know of. he said three rate hikes. these fed officials are have existential breakdowns. >> you're modeling for recession? >> absolutely. everything we've seen, outside of unemployment rate which is most lagging economic indicators, the jobs market turned in august. charles: jon what changes the fed here? feels like they turned on a dime. at least from the outside view looking in. what changes their mind gets us back to two or three or four rate hikes? >> i think two things. one most importantly if they sta

concerns for jay powell heading into next week's fomc meeting.e start with the big issue, uncertainty in the air at davos. >> people have certainly diminished their growth expectations and you are hearing all about that at davos. we don't think they have done it enough. >> i think the u.s. economy will grow at a lower rate than last year, and china will grow at a lower rate. >> although we have downgraded our forecast, the two countries that we have not downgraded are the u.s. and china. >> you have a growth that kicked up to a higher level and is coming down a little bit. that makes people nervous. >> we see an economy that is absolutely slowing in terms of growth but not stalling by any means. >> uncertainty is the greatest enemy of growth. >> the shutdown will ultimately start to affect economic activity. >> political uncertainty certainly doesn't make our job as business leaders easier. >> there is no question there has been an economic cost paid by the u.k. consumer and industry because of this uncertainty going on so long. >> all eyes are o

take a listen to what jay powell had to say. mr. well: if we reached a different conclusion, we would not hesitate to make a change. if any aspect of normalization was part of the problem, we would not hesitate to make a change. jonathan: what do you think of that? a total 180 from the chairman. bob: i think it's appropriate. it might be three weeks delayed from what would have been optimal delivery time. but nonetheless, it appears the markets have been well ahead of the fed and the fed is catching up. i think a deceleration in growth is baked in the cake. we were already going to decelerate from passing the peak fiscal impulse in the fourth quarter, early part of the seer, as well as monetary tightening over the last two years, and in december, the fed delivered a more hawkish expectation than the market was assuming and it reinforced the risk off, the elevated volatility for a while, and now it appears they are coming around. jonathan: there is a lot of people very unimpressed with the communication of the chairman of the federal

it is time for more negotiation, so a lot is resting on jay powell today. he needs to give markets reassurance. that the fed is taking the situation seriously and care about it. mcconnell has already told everybody that he won't even take up the legislation, so if markets move on that, then markets aren't paying any attention at all. maybe the much more important news that 46% of companies in the s&p have cut fourth-quarter forecasts. this really hurts the e in pe. if you are a bargain hunter, this is your nightmare. mark: one of the things that has happened over the last few days is when apple announced they were revising their outlook, they mentioned about china and the effect. china is affecting other major american companies, as well. they earn a lot of money from that part of the world and the subsidiary markets that go with it. the attention of the negotiators between the u.s. and china when they meet. both sides must realize that the trade war is hurting them equally. it is about time they found a solution. this is no longer about just hurting china

what jay powell said in the press conference. you went from december, the outlook not fundamentally altered, to the minutes, which it said the committee could afford to be patient. deteriorationhe of how powell -- ira: we will continue to get that incrementally more dovish fed. we will have a press conference, but none of the other bells and whistles that go around the press conference. dotconomic projections, no plot. jay powell will be able to explain exactly this transition from a relatively hawkish fed down to a neutral fed. the fed has to acknowledge the fact that we have leading indicators rolling over. with the exception of the job market, a lot of other indicators are starting to roll over. david: in the last news conference jay powell did, he moved markets. it was the balance sheet. what's going to happen today on the balance sheet? preset path not a but the fed wants to continue to reduce the balance sheet. at some point in the future, we might have to do more quantitative easing. at the same time, it's not obvious to me

i was jay powell's words. it is utterly alive. s&p 500 up. city says by the depth. they are overweight u.s. stocks. earnings-per-share slowdown is priced in the dollar index. who let the birds out on the dollar? jay powell let the birds out. suisse, affected by the dovish comments. notes are really rocked out. you saw the move by 12 basins points. that beat the 10 year government bond in terms of rally. it was the biggest increase since november 25. now the most overboard since 2008. the speed of her -- of retracement was visceral. trumps the deal. that is the bottom line. the data in the united states of america trumps the opec non-opec deal. of 9% -- up 9%. they cut the long positions and those of the markets. humphrey is standing by with the first word headlines. today. -- good day. trump isent considering declaring a national emergency to secure funding for the mexico border wall. nancy pelosi in the congressional democratic leadership is the source. they told chuck schumer the shutdown could last months or years. >> absolutely asset that. but i amhink it will,

react to avestors dovish jay powell.es the word flexibility and listening carefully. ♪ fully. ♪ ♪ 2:30 in tokyo this afternoon. this is a live shot of the emperor's palace, a beautiful site. shinzo on the, can he really deliver a sales tax hike this year? that's the question. dollar-yen, the dollar is on the move. that is one of the challenges, whether he can do something on the retail sales side. but let's talk about the market moves. keep an eye on the uber, it is the strongest in two months. policy, shrugs off the the biggest rrr we've seen in 2018. says to me -- this that they are shrugging off the possibility of rate cuts. our guest says you could get rate cuts this year. it's the sharpest bounce we have seen in the currency. 6.7 could be attained on the currency, so it will be interesting to see how the china trade talks play out. good morning. >> good morning. you have some calling for more cuts of 100, 150 basis points, but you could say the yuan is shrugging off with the pboc has done. on the other hand, it has

federal reserve chairman you jay powell saying the fed will be patient.iel marty march know, a formr dallas fed advisor joins us now. great to see you. this was music to the stock market's ear. we went up 500 points on the dow, it came back down but it was important to see the kind of confidence that inspired. do you believe the fed is bowing to the president's criticism? >> i don't believe that jay powell thinks that he is bowing to president trump but i certainly think that optically the markets believe it to be the case and i think that's more important in the current very charged environment, is what markets perceive, what markets believe. gerri: traders on the floor of the exchange told me yesterday the important thing for them, not necessarily what he said about rates, although they liked it, but it was the balance sheet. explain to our viewers in simple terms what this means and how important it is that the federal reserve chairman said hey, we're thinking about this, we're having a conversation about this, we could change our policy. >> so making

jay powell falling it up later. we were looking for signaling, but this meeting was perhaps whatmore significant than we had anticipated. kathleen: it certainly did not disappoint. those of us who watch the fed closely new it would be nothing about a rate hike, obviously. what would they tell us on january 30 that was so different from december 19 when the hike the key rate and signal more rate hikes this year? changeslly did make since then, saying they could be patient on policy for this over and over. this time it was in the prepared remarks. and importantly, the reference to further gradual rate hikes that has been in the policy statement for months and months if not years and years. importantly, let's listen to what jay powell said about where the fed is now and what it all means. grace we are now facing a somewhat contradictory picture alongside growing evidence of crosscurrents. at such times, common sense risk management suggests patiently awaiting greater clarity, an approach that has served policymakers we

so the fmoc meeting just concluding do you think that jay powell is handling the economy the right way? >> i actually do look, i i think jay was put in very difficult position but he's handled it very well i listened to the conference >> difficult in how so >> i think jay acknowledged that the united states economy is growing and agrgrowing well but in other parts of the world, he is having to deal with the slowing economic conditions in other parts of the world so the united states continues to grow and show good signs of strength, but other parts of the world continue to slow he is trying to balancing the equation between domestic growth and global growth and that is a difficult part of the equation and he is also realizing that we do not have a lot of inflation in the united states in fact the only real inflation we hopefully will have in the united states is wage inflation. we've seen wages in the united states get up to 3.1%, so we're start torg see wage growth in the united states. but outside of that, we really don't have inflation in the united states. and i know as chairman of

jay powell doesn't come from the traditional academic background as economy.completely different world. people look at fed minutes came out from the december meeting, they came out yesterday, saying what is the fed thinking? his remarks give us a full picture, but he is is dovish to the united states. look at our labor market. it is undeniable we're adding so many jobs people reentering the workforce. we have room to grow. however looking internationally. there are earn is aspects of the u.s. economy i would say give us pause. for example, our gdp to debt ratio. he is taking all these things into account. this is encouraging. connell: i hear you. alfredo, let me ask you what hadley brought up on jobs because you might have a sense of that. >> that's right. connell: from people you're dealing with, what are you seeing out there, particularly small business? we have good numbers. initial jobless claims again good. all the data is good. what are you seeing? >> the fundamentals of this economy are very, very strong. the low regulatory environment. low tax environm

what a difference a few months makes, jay powell back on october 3rd, much higher neutral rate, clearlyf the market is telling you that you might see cut over the next 12 months, that's a very, very different story from what i'm hearing right now out of the fed which is still talking about two hikes for this year and quantitative tightening on auto pilot and, look, my question for jay and the fed, it's simple, over the past 12 months we've added 200,000 new jobs on average each month to the labor market, inflation is falling before the fed's target, the economy is doing reasonably well, jay, why do you need to rock the boat right now? cheryl: again, that maybe changing if you look at the fed fund futures, we are still watching on screen. dramatic change overnight to what investors are thinking is going to happen. guy is not tone deaf, let's be honest. chairman of the federal reserve. the other thing is about china. we have gotten confirmation and this is helping equity markets that we will have discussions on monday and tuesday in beijing between lower-level authorities but still offici

jay powell says the federal reserve can be patient.ed chairman said he is watching and waiting to see how global risk impacts the domestic economy. they also confirmed the central bank is sticking to its plan to shrugging the balance sheet to a more normal level. submitsindividual level his or her projections four times a year. we did that in december. two rate increases was the median, conditional on a strong outlook for 2019, and outlook that may still happen. we are in a place where we could be patient and flexible, and wait to see what does involve. we are waiting and watching. ministerpan's prime says the whole world wants to avoid a no deal brexit. following meetings between shinzo abe and theresa may, he publicly backed the brexit agreement. lawmakers are debating the deal in the house of commons ahead of a final vote on tuesday. >> a no deal brexit will be avoided, and in fact, that is the whole wish of the whole world. support of theal agreement between the eu and prime minister may. debra: global news, 24 hours a day on air a

or wrong. >> i understand why the president is hammering jay powell.agen: i do to. >> he's sensed areas of economies are slowing so he's have a saucer entrance touch but up against that you're going into the capital markets for another trillion dollars of debt so you have to make sure people know you protect the currency and not have too much inflation. that harmony, if you will, is disrupting because the way the president treats. he'd be better off in the markets if he brought them into the oval office and had a conversation in the denver study off the oval office. dagen: that's in the works potentially. >> i hope it happens. it'll clear the air. the president has a good touch for people once he's in their presence and call the president down. the same way the president was upset about rod rosenstein, one of my classmates from law school rod rosenstein is a boy scout applies with air force one comes back to his job. all of that die down. i hope that happens. secondarily, you talk about fiscal policy and they done a good job three things you need to do

economic slowdown and credit concerns for jay powell heading into next week.e start with the big issue, uncertainty. >> people have certainly diminished the expectations and we are hearing all about that. in 2019, i think the u.s. economy is going to grow at a lower rate than last year. the two countries that we have not downgraded are the u.s. and china. you have a growth that finally kicked up the high level and that makes people nervous. >> we've actually seen an economy that is slowing in terms of growth. but not stalling by any means. across.nty is generated the shutdown ultimately will affect productivity. it certainly does not make our job as dozens leaders easier. >> economic cost paid by the u.k. consumer u.k. industry because it has gone on for so long. andll eyes on this talk hopefully will share some good news. i hope something positive will pop up. >> we have all this uncertainty and the possibility that it's slower than people expected last year. >> we are likely to see weak first-quarter. i think the fed is going to pause and whether the resume

jay powell can cannot and say what he has always had. the u.s. economy looks strong going into 2019. you are not on a preset course and we will do what with think it's prudent at the time. they have until march. nobody thinks they would move in january. will have more pmi's, more inflation data. he can sit back and say, no reason to panic. we was just to see what happens as the data comes in. better.wth looks does that suggests this company might be in trouble in terms of margins, what is a give more credence to the fence idea that there is inflation of the? michael: it is a little bit of both. that is the possibility of some inflation out there. if companies that were to be absorbing it cannot raising prices, the fed doesn't have much to worry about rate -- about. . jay powell was given a report of why would you consider raising? he didn't have a good answer. it all depends on how this gets passed through. do companies absorb it or do they raise prices? we haven't seen a whole lot of indication of rate increases coming. fact that the unemploymen

what will we hear from jay powell?been speculation we would see a less unwinding than previously anticipated. it is unlikely jay powell announces that at this meeting. it seems premature to think at this stage. a difficult balancing act overall. the market has priced out rate pricing any sort of moved so does he want to be more dovish at this meeting, in which case markets will price rate cuts? that is unlikely. we will probably see the last vestiges of any forward-looking guidance team taken out -- being taken out. the fed will probably move to a more data dependence tone. markets me see that as dovish, but it is only a knology where we are headed. data has been limited. the government shutdown has meant the fed has less of a gauge on some of the data it would have otherwise. he will be a tough one. i just don't see how being overly dovish at this meeting, even though he will maintain the patient tone. he doesn't want to give the markets a view that is wrong. he wase: saw last time more dovish than expected, there was

jay powell saving the day. before i let you run, steve, january meeting, nothing, right?arch, what about march? nothing? >> reporter: i'm just getting here, i don't have a full screen for you, but in the wake of the jobs report we're going to do 2.9. a strong end to the year and my endsing is most expect the first quarter to be strong as well it'll be a gift. making sure the whole thing clears out if markets stabilize. you can maybe start to think about something towards march. if you have a big down it will go the other day january is off the table in my opinion. march i think is 25/75 against hiking at this point unless you have a big change. >> you'll get through, joe, two earnings seasons if you will before the april/may meeting, the end of april into the first part of may, you'll see numbers and hear comments. off the table, do you agree with steve? >> i'll give you a date and a year >> if you're in the scott miner camp >> yeah. >> no hikes this year at all >> from an asset allocation standpoint that's interesting. rick rieder came on the show and made an asset call

jay powell says he can be flexible.laims president trump he has every right to declare an emergency to fund his border wall. coming up in about 20 minutes, our exclusive interview with xiaomi ceo. started with get how markets closed. pretty. -- the markets resilient despite slowdowns in the retail sector and not to mention the partial government shutdown in the u.s., now on its 20th day. we sow the -- we saw the s&p 500 higher. not much strength and utilities and other sectors, but we saw some weakness coming from the retail sector during macy's with disappointing earnings and dragging down coals and target as well. kohl's andble's -- target as well. we have some more positive sentiment coming out for the u.s.-china trade talks and not to mention the fact that chairman powell talked about being more flexible. that did not go down well with the markets. we did see a brief decline in u.s. stocks. when it comes to be set up in asia, we are seeing potential after and [indiscernible] four-day gain. we are waiting from data f