jay powell seemed to express confidence that this would be transitory. t's listen to what he said at the press conference following the fed's meeting. --ir powell: kathleen: what he said is that inflation has fallen to 1.5% year-over-year. let's look at one of our bloom -- our bloomberg charts. it tells the story well, one picture is worth 1000 words. you can see on the right-hand side of your screen, the headline number fell to 1.3%. you can dismiss that as oil prices, they go up, down. the fact that the core is down to 1.5% year-over-year that got people thinking the fed could be getting ready to at least open the door to the possibility of a rate cut. said thatd president recently. jay powell said these are temporary factors. portfolio management services, the prices of those have fallen, that could be temporary. think of the shoes, clothing, how temporary cannot be if online shopping continues to keep prices low? he talked about airfares. autumn line, current policy stance is appropriate. no need to move rates in either direction. it is steady as she

jay powell says the current policy stance is appropriate. not looking for a hike or a cap. -- or a cut. , if not justto see lower inflation, lower growth for that to happen. david: at the moment he is sounding his support for a stronger economy, that is the view so far at least. any chance that low inflation might change his mind? first, the bet on the stronger economy, low-end -- low unemployment, he sees it pick up in the second half of the year. purchasing managers index fell sharply. hass still signaling growth been down. export orders are down. maybe he is counting on a trade deal soon so that some uncertainty is eliminated. we spoke to former federal reserve bank president dennis lockhart, he was there from 2007-2017, through the financial crisis. he does not think we will see a hike or a cut. when i pressed him on why inflation keeps falling, here is what he said. people can over read the situation. thinkwell today, they policy is set at an appropriate level. modeare in a wait-and-see for the foreseeable future. i would be surprised i

jay powell said yesterday he thinks the drop in inflation is transitory.ows the labor market is high. he is counting on that to ultimately boost wages more to help create a stronger economy. payroll up a good number in april, not quite as strong as much, but that will harden the fed, make them say yes, we got solid growth and we could maybe continue on this path. unemployment, as i said, at three point it present. watch wages, though. i think a downside surprise or upside surprise could have an impact on the market. >> thank you. that was our global economics and policy editor. the indonesian president is on aurse for reelection and business tycoon says his pledge to focus on human resources in his second term will benefit companies are writing education, health care, and entertainment. he spoke exclusively to haslinda amin who asked about the threat of a legal challenge to the result. >> i think my view first of all i don't think is going to be bad for economics and politics because we've seen it before. when we look at the last 10 years, standard divisio

jay powell has brush that off. is he counting on the end of a trade war and a trade deal being signed to get that export going again and getting manufacturing going? >> if he is, he is probably overstating that. we have seen this trap off globally. on the one hand, the consumer looks pretty good. but the industrial economy is starting to weekend. that does tend to be the sector that leads late in the cycle. and the one that turns over first. that really does bear watching. so where does this leave us for the rest of the year? do you expect the fed to use later? you hit the right point with that last remark about the data. of course they will be watching the data. we should all believe them. as long as the economy is going well and inflation is relatively well-behaved, they will stay where they are. market likes to see movement. they will speculate about the upside and downside in the next two months. there is no reason to expect that they will change in the next few months. unless you have some cataclysmic market e

that was jay powell in the last hour what we saw, jay powell taking the stage starting to explain theirtion ideas and the market took a dip lower. higher going into that news conference off the statement lower on the powell comments and tumbled into the close, mike santoli. the fed making it clear they are firmly patient they're not giving any clues as to the next move whether it's going to be a hike or a cut. and maybe the market wanted to lean more into the cut side of things see that core inflation is more problematic for the fed. he kind of dismissed it by saying it's temporary. >> a little bit of a concern about persistently low inflation and then given a couple of opportunities in the q&a, powell didn't really buy into that. it's not necessarily automatically a bad thing for the market that the fed chair says the dip in inflation may be transitory janet yellen was using that phrase in 2017 the stock market moved higher. we kind of felt like there was an acceleration going on in the economy. not as much sensitivity. >> it's interesting how much sold off in the final half hour of tr

let's measure up. >>> fed leaves rates unchanged jay powell is set to have a news conference at any momentll take you there let's get final thaukts from the panel as we count you down to powell paul, what do you think? >> i think it's going to be an interesting press conference it's now center stage. the phillips curve has broken. we are below target, and we've seen no reason to anticipate we're going to be above target any time soon. inflation is center. >> why why is it broken >> that's what they're studying. a lot of us have lots of opinions about it. but the fed needs to have a viewpoint. you can't be missing your target for ten years and not effectively have a plan b. >> it is a question you would have david for jay powell. >> are you comfortable asset prices doing up this fast? i think advertise mission is going to be try to make sure people are not expecting a near term rate cut. the fed cuts rates and people say what are they scared about and you get into a pattern i've seen the fed cut rates in this kind of circumstance and help things. >> the late 90s. >> that was a very specific

they black listed huawei from national security concerns fed chair jay powell talked in corporate debtida overnight. mr. powell saying the level of debt in the corporate balance sheets could sfres stress if the economy were to weaken aeedded the fed would continue to impact growing jet and sees the overall risk to the economy as moderate. and the eocd is out with the latest global growth forecast. the headline here, broen, global growth has slowed abruptly over the past year and is going to continue the eocd expects global gdp growth to be 3.2% this year. the group blaming a lot of the slowdown on rising rates >> it's still good kate rogers, we're going to fight later in trending. are you ready for trending >> i don't know if i'm coming back >> kate rogers she'll be back, and it's going to be great. here's how your more than e money in the markets look this morning. futures are up about 70 points right now. the markets fell half a percent. wow. kate comes on, and the markets jump 40 points dow futures now -- take a bow, kate up about is 12 poins right now keep the moves in contest, tho

that is how markets interpreted the commentary from jay powell. lots to talk about on that but also some trade headlines. we couldia reporting see progress on trade, a deal as early as next friday. we will keep an eye on that. that is the overnight session in asia. mark cudmore, our markets live managing editor in singapore. a lot has been written about the fed already had what jay powell said yesterday and what he meant to communicate. wherer he's understood the market is positioned. it seemed the market was devilishly positioned and he came out less dovish than the market had anticipated. did he mean for that to happen? mark: absolutely. i think jerome powell has been consistent. he's stuck with the line of being patient on rates. thes the market that made mistake of thinking the word patient meant rapidly change course and policy. the fed never said that. they said they would be patient. it was right to price at the rate hikes that were priced in earlier and the markets said for some reason, started pricing cuts rapidly. the fed has been consis

confirm with me that nothing that we heard their influences jay powell. >> it is in the back of theirds but it won't. they are professionals and a lot of them are economist. now we looking at the data. where are we now, where we going? therefore the best course of action right now is to remain on hold, not do much. amanda: that was a private that this bed made, the word patient is one to watch out for. a series of data points, all over the map in terms of how tepid the outlook might be. ism today not amazing. are you looking for anything suggesting a change on the balance sheet? that did surprise some people. one thing that is important is the federal funds rate has started to creep higher in the band they have set. part of the reason for that is the balance sheet runoff. it is certainly one of the impacts of the reduction of the balance sheet, reduction of bank reserves, and therefore interest rates have to creep higher. they could tweak the interest they pay on excess reserves. it is possible, and i think they should announce a new facility that would allow them to control interest

jay powell downplayed recent weakness as transitory.e gave no indication the fomc is weighing a rate cut, despite from thefrom -- washington and wall street. do not think the first quarter was related to anything we did in terms of raising rates. we do not know this, but you never know only with hindsight -- you never know, you only know what hand -- with hindsight. francine: let's talk about the fed now with our bloomberg mliv editor. mark, always a pleasure to speak to you. given this patient's, what does it mean for treasuries? i think one of the controversial things is you might see the curve of flats in a bit. the fed is sticking to the patient policy. it is the markets that has overreacted and interpreted the word patient as looking to rapidly change policy. they have reiterated patience. that is why it is unlikely front end rates will move. they were discounted because of the pressure from trump and markets. so the chance for the front end, a bit means that treasury yield actually comes down a bit. that is because we are clearly

jay powell admits u.s.rn but insists the fed is not asleep at the wheel and the system

charles: i guess until you can hear from jay powell himself. nevertheless this number is decision markets are looking at particularly as the dow is on a cusp of making an all-time high? >> yeah. i think you've nail it there, charles. we're up 3 points. i just plans -- glanced down, up 3 s&p 500 points. that is a little muted with them coming out with solid, solid adverb, adjective everyone has been talking about. i was expecting a little bit better pop if they talked postively about this. what we'll see if the fed chair, if he is going to put in some dovish language. i know ubs had some leanings that would be coming out this afternoon. if that happens, i think we can push this thing a goodly bit higher even this afternoon. charles: so there is a lot of theories out there why the fed should cut rates. one theory is that there is no inflation. they have got room to do it. another theory there's a liquidity issue. maybe why they took the action they did do with the bank reserves. there is another theory, hal was leaning toward this. hey why not ma

one man who knows a thing or two about it is jay powell.ownplayed the recent weakness and gave from -- indications that fomc is weighing on rate cut despite pressure from the white house and wall street area and >> the weak first-quarter performance was not expected and i'd don't think it was related to anything we did in terms of raising rates. , we don't to be more know this but you never know until with hindsight. some of it does appear to be [inaudible] of macro guest is head rates and strategy. good to see you. as i read the various stories that come through, it struck me that perhaps this is powell trying to quell our thirst for a rate cut in the u.s. he wanted to try to re-grasp the nettle's. what did you make of it? >> i think that was part of it. if you look at front end rates in the u.s. from november last year, they have come down significantly. expectations have gone full circle. there was expectation back then there would be more hikes along the way. most 50%sterday probability that they cut as soon as september. there was a ne

jay powell's best friend today, william barr. can make some news, jay powell would like to make none. david: there is a chance the attorney general will make some news, given the controversy over the mueller report. as a practical matter, why shouldn't the fed reduce rates? it is not the absolute number, but certainly the relative number we are sure about, that is a lot closer to a year ago. michael: they are afraid of goosing the economy too much. ,f to get things going too fast that could be a concern for the possibility of bubbles forming in asset markets. alix: thanks a lot. -- davee obedient donabedian will be staying with us. the fed decision is coming up at 2:00 eastern time. this is bloomberg. ♪ alright boys, time for bed. listen to your mom, knuckleheads. hand em over. hand what over? video games, whatever you got. let's go. you can watch videos of people playing video games in the morning. is that everything? i can see who's online. i'm gonna sweep the sofa fort. well, look what i found. take control of your wifi with x

even that's where i part company with jay powell. en at 3.5 trillion that we're going to get, that's seven times more than we were in the financial crisis. >> powell zigging, trump zagging. that was not a fed chair yesterday that sounded like he was going to cut rates any time soon. >> no. it looks like we're pushing and they don't plan to do anything at this point. and, look, most of this rally is largely on the heels of a reverse of the federal reserve policy no matter what kind of analysis you do, stocks do not live anyway vacuum. the rate is a politic dynamic. if we get back to 3. 2% like we were in october, that's where risk allocators will derisk like they did then, they'll see an opportunity in the bond market and go there. >> why, looking for a 3% gain? >> they didn't want to be in the stock market in the first place. >> 2.5% yield drives you into the stock market because the dividend yield in the s&p 500 is about the same yield on the bonds and you're not getting any upside necessarily. >> that's why we're so totally dependen

that's followed, of course, by a news conference from chairman jay powell. officials expected to hold rates steady. but there has been a lot of criticism from president trump to make a cut. >> we think our policy stance is appropriate at the moment, and we don't see a strong case for moving in either direction. >> they are in a wait and see mode, i think, for the for seeable future. i would be surprised if there is much of a movement in terms of policy, perhaps for several months, unless you see a real change in how the economy is performing. >> i really saw him walk the tightrope there, because we saw a statement that underscores lower inflation, acknowledging inflation is below target. it is. it is something the fed has talked about, and then he walked it right back and said, it is low. but we think it is transitory, and he laid out specific reasons why he thought it was transitory. the change in measurement on apparel prices, which could pull up over the next couple of months, and that is why they are not ready to do a preemptive cut on rates yet. >> s&p

michael: in march, jay powell said low inflation was one of the major challenges of our time.aid inflation problems are just transitory. people are a little confused. richard: i don't think so. i think what jay powell was referring to in march is the global economy, eurozone or japan, if you look at big chunks of the advanced economy and global economy, inflation is well below the levels they would desire in those countries. in the context of the u.s., our inflation rate is near 2%. there are some transitory factors we think will play out. i think in march, we were really talking about the global economy and more recently, we are talking about the transitory factors in the u.s. michael: if you look back, pce is your target rate. over the last 20 years, it has averaged 1.8% since you adopted it as a target, it averaged 1.4%. why should anyone at wall street take a 2% target seriously? rishaad: that is an excellent point. our job is to achieve that 2% objective. richard: we say on a symmetric basis. obviously going forward, our goal is to get inflation up to 2% and keep it there

president trump has made a series of appointments to the fed that are widely applauded including jay powell. i think most people involved in business and economics they that people like powell and claire da have done a very good job. this is a moment where the president's keeps trying to play to his base and as stephanie just suggested, he may not mind, it may not be any skin off his knee if stephen moore gets be embarrassed and he can go to his base and say look what the these politically correct people tried to drum up about him and fire up his base even more. >> the point there though is that powell was lauded at a good choice, kelly, but increasingly, the president's been in a spinning match with him because he's not doing the president's bidding, which by the way, a chair of the federal reserve is not supposed to do. >> it's what stephen moore was willing to do. >> this is the problem. the good pick not with standing, the good pick is not doing what the president wants and by the way, kelly, because you've been through so many elections, you remember during the election cycle and prior

so goldilocks scenario, equities continue their journey higher. >> jay powell was right. he said we should worry about the economy. he clearly said this is not overheating. exactly, this is not overheating. average hourly earnings, 3.2%. that is telling you that this economy is chugging along nicely. at the same rate, unemployment, 3.6%. >> you are getting blowout numbers on jobs like today. 263 plus. you have blowout numbers in first-quarter gdp. a blowout number yesterday with year on year productivity, 2.4%. you know how important that is for the health of the economy, for wages, and for an absence of inflation. let me reiterate that point -- what we are seeing is low unemployment, 3.6%. i think somebody told me it was the best since the late 1960's. low unemployment, strong growth, and virtually no inflation. so all of those phillips curve models should be buried and we should look at a new world. people respond to incentives. that is exactly what is happening right now, and the economy is freer than it has been in 20 years plus. >> still ahead, as we review the week

taylor: we know he had been a little bit critical of jay powell.e heard from trump talking about cutting rates. where did he stand come and how does that compare to herman cain, who was also out? what do we do next? polls reallyf the support in terms of no hikes in december. that would have made a lot of sense. in this respect it is actually a good thing when you have a diversity of opinion on the fed and i'm all for it. look at what happens when everybody thinks the same way. sort of collective thinking, right? you tend to make mistakes. we actually think the december rate hike was a mistake. in that respect i agree with him. at the same time, the key thing to remember is that you really have to make decision on research, data, and not political biases. amanda: we are seeing -- speaking of political, the politicization of the fed in a way it is hard to recall ever seeing before. picks being combed over. obviously the language from the white house about fed decisions. does that change your thinking about the power and control the fed has over their

chairman jay powell have remarks on rising corporate debt as he addressed the atlantic fed conferencefor more in his comments, kathleen hays joins us. key takeaways? wasleen: the speech practically all about rising corporate debt, but everyone wondering where the fed goes next on interest rates wants to know, what did he say about the economy? the little he had to say and is prepared remarks were pretty upbeat. let's listen. >> the economy is showing continued growth, strong job growth, muted inflation pressures. kathleen: it answers questions, we got a little more flavor, some of the big picture eco-questions. when asked about this, the fed having this bid review of its monetary policy, he said the framework has served the public well. he also said one alternative might be looking at an inflation range instead of sticking just to that one point, its 2% target. let's jump into the bloomberg library and look at a chart that fits well, why the fed would think this is a good idea. the blue line at the top is the unemployment. you cannot see the peak at 10% during the depth of the great r

. >> jay powell was right. >> low unemployment, strong growth, and virtually no inflation. so, all of those phillips curve models should be buried. plus, expert perspective from the global conference. >> we are 10 years into an economic recovery. at some point, there will be a recession. >> economy is chugging along -- china is chugging along pretty well. policy should be relatively stable. it is all ahead on "bloomberg best." hello and welcome. i'm rosalind chin. this is "bloomberg best." your weekly review of the most important business news, and analysis from around lunenburg. let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines. alphabet released quarterly results following earnings on facebook and amazon the week before. >> googles parent tumbled after first quarter revenue missed evidence. sales came in at $29.5 billion, ofsing wall street estimates $30 billion. revenue did rise. how would you characterize the threat of amazon and its agile advertising business? >> google has said they see it big,al advertising as a green field. they are seeing a lot of money movin

jay powell brings up the inflation range. power down. tesla shares both -- fall below $200 for the first time since december 2016 and a series of issues stoked analysts caution. manus: let's get straight to the moving markets. the aussie dollar is under aessure as the governor sets fresh blow. it is a killer blow. we will talk about the potential for rate cuts come the june meeting. you have to rephrase the probability of rate cuts. you have a trade war, ground zero is the aussie dollar. look at nymex crude, also dealing and grappling with trade but also responding very much to the language from the past two to three days which is we are going to stay the course. that is the message. bank of maryland merrill lynch says the market is nearly balanced in the oil market for 2019 amid trade wars. then you take a look at the rest of the market and you see dollar on the move as well. that is your aussie dollar and your nymex trued. -- nymex crude. yesterday we saw european equities drop as well and it was those tech companies and thus a my cond

today's i is an report, you heard jay powell talk about reduced trading strains -- today's isn report. the report is riddled with concerns about the border dispute with china, -- the border dispute with mexico, china, etc. if markets move up and are optimistic, policymakers need to worry a little. scarlet: let's recap some of the numbers that did come out in the markets during the close. qualcomm had second-quarter earnings and revenue higher than analysts estimates. it also gave a third view that includes a revised or $.5 billion or $.5 billion a $4.7 billion on the apple settlement. it seems third quarter none gap -- qualcomm has reversed its gains and is down 3% in after-hours trading. we want to say thank you and asdbye to stephen whiting well as bloomberg's sarah ponczek, our cross asset reporter. that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in next four "what'd you miss?" -- for "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde and here's a snapshot of how u.s. markets closed down

jay powell has a new word, transitory.hair powell: we expect some transitory factors may be at work. we have reason to think that some of the next but you decrease appears to be transient. there's good reason to think these readings are particularly influenced by some transitory factors. there's reason to think those would be transient and turnaround. are baseline view remains that with a strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2% over time. david: for those of us old to remember groucho marx, a new magic word. [laughter] david: now it is transitory. what he is saying is don't worry about inflation going south of 2%. it is going to come back again. hasn't he said this before? stephanie: i think this is one of those times where he was, on purpose, was an element of strategy here. the markets are firmly expecting a rate cut before the end of the year, which went quite far beyond anything the fed has talked about and what we were seeing in the data. i think you see a bit of a push back their. it did p

right now the federal reserve's target rate is 2.5 if investors expected jay powell to do nothing for rest of the year, the fed futures would be at 97.5 the fact that they're at 97.9 may not seem like a big deal to you, but it's huge trillions of dollars bet in this market, it means the futures markets are forecasting that the fed will start easing sometime in the next six months that doesn't mean these speculators will turn out to be right. people who try to game the fed are often wrong and disappointed last november when jay powell was making threatening noises on how he needed to raise interest rates aggressively, the fed funds rate went to 97. okay, meaning people were looking for a 3% federal funds rate then the stock market cratered, the economy slowed down and powell changed course talking about the need for patience. garner points out it didn't take long for the futures market to go from anticipating no change to anticipating rate cuts by april the fed funds rate futures were soaring so you can see this big rally. that's all people making a bet how would a bookmaker break it d

i don't know what jay powell's motivation was. going going to ascribe nefarious motivation, trying to wreck the economy to prove he is independent. remember what happened? the stock market fell by 1000 points. remember in early january the fed had to reverse course and admitted it made a mistake. we had a nice run. i'm here to tell you the fed is still too tight. they have not just reduce the federal funds rate but the reduce interest rate fed is paying on bank reserves. that will free up money for loans and get more dollar liquidity in the market. charles: should the fed take on a new role, steve, where they don't come to the rescue? in other words, what is wrong with the u.s. economy growing at 3% and fed taking actions to help it grow to 4%? why are classic economists so against that kind of thinking? >> look, the optimal monetary pricing is have stable prices. things that moves you from stable prices inflation or deflation, moves you away from optimal growth strategy. this idea somehow, even my friend rich clarida, he got caug

economy and jay powell made it clear he is not so concerned about growth. if anything, he expects solid growth this year. he is concerned about inflation because it has fallen and he has said he thinks the decline is transitory. it is temporary. he is looking past the fact that we have not seen a solid response from rising wages from tighter labor markets, from acceleration inflation. 3% --e hourly earnings, a 3.3% year-over-year and 3.2% year-over-year in march. powell isat jay looking past as he bets on a pickup in the second half and more forces to drive inflation higher. the top line is unemployment. it has come down a lot and the depth of the great recession. it is at 3.8%, nearly a 50 year low. the men -- middle line is average hourly earnings. they are supposed to go up again to 3.3%. a steady trend higher, but not a marked trend higher and the yellow line is the tce gauge come up 1.5% year-over-year, further from the fed off target. this is what the fed will look at. that is the filter when they look at the jobs report. payroll seeing a bump of 190,

jay powell has talked about that. that the -- the oecd saying that that constrains the ability to raise rates. thati think it is correct we are in a presidential election. the likelihood of a crisis i think is less than you would peacewhen you watch the parts. but i do think we will find our way through this before there is a crisis in trade to come but there is, of course. alix: this is a conversation we would have a year ago and say do you think the u.s. economy can tintin you -- economy can continue to be good. do you believe that is the case? inst: the corporate sector the u.s. continues to surprise us in a very positive and popular way. we have to watch these other issues play out. the impact of trade wars on imports in the u.s. will be quite dramatic. david: what is the effect on capital investment? bob: if you think about any country where manufacturing is at the heart -- germany is a good example -- they took a big hit in the fourth quarter. people haven't talked about it taylor: germany has -- about it. germa

jay powell this week addressed critics who argue the fed is asleep at the wheel. as concern rises over the poses of leverage lending to the financial system. powell agreed it looks a lot like the mortgage industry in the run-up to the subprime crisis. .egulators are watching closer the financial system is in better shape. he pointed to mutual funds. investors have been whipped into a frenzy over eagerness for yield. cio of arena investors, a neat -- a new york-based firm. great to have you with us. is jaystion, simply put, it is not a crash threat. would you agree with that as a starting point to our conversation this morning? >> no. crisis,saw during the mortgages were obviously ahead of themselves. so were a variety of others within the yield universe. similarly, leverage funds are away beyond where they need to be from a credit perspective. there are several other areas where things have become overheated. where the fire starts, you never know. nejra: you are a chaser of liquidity. you are also unconstrained. around concerned leverage lending. where do you see t

his comments echoed those of chairman jay powell at last week's news conference. >> inflation has been running on the soft side, recently. we think there are some temporary factors to release some of that, so the baseline view is that inflation will begin to move up towards 2%. but we are certainly looking closely. cut --central bank has cut interest rates to 1.5%. the first central bank in the developed world to begin loosening policy. remainy inflation will below 2% until mid-2021. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, nejra. manus: thank you very much. some live pictures of the president of iran. get ready for a statement in regards to the nuclear accord. is he ready to step away or water it down? will are expectations he notify those who signed up for the agreement in tehran. we will monitor the story right here on bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's take you back lines from iran -- to the ines from iran. the president is saying he will n

the wage debate after jay powell downplayed the slide in u.s. inflation.ill the april jobs report show a tighter labor market in the u.s.? hsbc is moderating cost growth. the cfo tells us it can continue to have positive jaws rate euros for the rest of the years. --eu commissioner plus, france's third-biggest bank sees fixed income sales weigh as troubles at its investment bank continues. >> at the beginning of the quarter, the same order of magnitude as last year, low demand. a slight rise saw in supply and demand. ♪ matt: and the breaking, earnings continue to roll in. -- $429 million is what swiss we learned in the first quarter. the estimate was for $518.3 million. so they miss on net income. pnc reinsurance had a combined ratio of 1020%. first quarter -- 10.3%. positive r.o.e. there. for up to one billion in swiss francs in share buybacks. that's an important headline if you hold the shares. you'll get a boost by about a billion swiss francs may 6. saleso had earnings out, were 16.2 billion euros compared to the 16.1 billion euro estimate. the bsf had

. >> jay powell was right. he said we should worry about the economy. notstly, this is overheating. average earnings, 3.2. chugging along nicely. unemployment, 3.6%. blowoutre getting numbers on jobs like today. numbers inowout first-quarter gdp. a blowout number yesterday with year on year productivity, 2.4%. you know how important that is for the health of the economy and an absence of inflation. what we are seeing is low unemployment, 3.6%. somebody told me it was though best since the late 60's. virtually no inflation. all those models could be buried and we should look at a new world. people respond to incentives. that is what is happening. the economy is freer than 20 years plus. >> still ahead, as we reserve -- review verily with a -- we review the week in bloomberg best. others weigh in from the milken institute global conference. and highlights from the earnings report. the turning -- >> we have made huge strides forward resecure any foundations. the >> this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg's best. of theesume our round up most interesting earnings reports. standard cha

rate steady, the markets pulling back on jay powell's comments suggesting that interest rate cut is not being considered at this point. again, investors wanted more. in europe we have slight losses in england and france, dax there up slightly, in asia overnight, markets in japan closed for holiday, hang seng and kospi and south korea, to the plus side. latest round of trade talks for u.s. and china, the u.s. says progress has been made for a deal, next round of negotiations set for next week in washington. massive starbucks recall. mornings with maria starts right now. dagen: more fallout from the mueller report. attorney general william barr will not testify before house judiciary committee later today. ag disagreeing with the judiciary committee changing the format of questioning. president trump commenting last night on this during an interview with fox business trish regan. >> they worked around the clock to address concerns that attorney general just informed us that he will not attend tomorrow's hearing, the department of justice told us said they will not comply subpoena on muell

we saw jay powell backtrack on what the fed's outlook for 2019 was in january. said he has put in place a powerful it to go -- a powell put to go along with the bernanke put. do you think it reacts to markets too much? to be careful. the word put is overused as a way to describe policy. the fed should be thinking about the economy, inflation, growth and all those things. and the market is reacting to many things. it is an indication of how you say he is doing. you do not want to say it is automatic pilot. that is too extreme. markets are part of that. it is not fundamental. michael: what do you think of the balance sheet in the way they handled that? john: i am of the view they should go back to a balance sheet like they had originally before the crisis. that would be where the interest rate is determined by supply and demand, it is a market determined rate. they postponed the move to that a little bit. it is discussing refunding. anormalization which includes federal funds rate would be a good idea. i do not know if they are going to do that. going back to the

michael: in march, jay powell said inflation was one of the major challenges of our time. inflation problems are just transitory. people are confused here. vice chair clarida: for the global economy, whether you look at the euro zone or japan, if you look at the globally economy, inflation is well below the levels they desire in those countries. in the context of the u.s., our inflation rate is near 2%. there are some transitory factors that will play out. recently, we were talking about the transitory factors in the u.s. michael: if you look back, pce is your target rate. over the last 20 years, and has averaged 1.8%. why should anybody in wall street take a 2% target seriously? vice chair clarida: our job is to achieve that 2% objective. our own framework, we say on asymmetric basis -- our goal is to get inflation up to 2% and keep it there hopefully on a symmetric range. that is the goal, i agree. michael: the goal, but what is the monetary policy strategy statement? it says we want to be at 2%. how do you get above that? vice chair clarida: our focus is getting the inf

he has an even bigger fe-fi-fo-fum >> i think 300,000 number given jay powell's hawkishness will put even more pressure on rich to deliver on the fed staying dovish >> danielle demartino booth. thank you. thank you. >>> a big stock to watch today beyond meat. it's soared its market debut it is up again right now in the premarket. frank holland is here with the details on beyond meat >> i was also there at the nasdaq to laurng the ipo a lot of excitement there. you know, i'm going to just use this line right now. investors clearly have an appetite for plant-based meat. beyond meat up 17% this morning. the maker of a plant-based meat alternative launching its ipo yesterday and becoming the best performing unicorn this year it's been a big year for ipos. shares of the -- closed 163% higher yesterday the company now has a valuation of 3.77 billion yon dollars. they're trying to get a piece of the 1.3 trillion global meat market with its plant-based foods that include burgers, sausage, and a whole other range of products. it's currently sold at ploern 17 nous retail locations like while f

i think it's counter productive when the president bashes jay powell for taking interest rate too high it makes it hard for him to change course but trump's not wrong. we'd be in better shape if the fed would give us a rate cut after these numbers it would be justified. it was obviously a painful mistake to raise when powell did, but no one could ever admit to that. although you can bet that trump will be running against powell and the chinese in his 2020 election bid here's the thing about this kind of environment, it's perfect for companies that don't need a strong economy to make the numbers. in the old days the biggest winners were just fang, football, amazon, netflix, google and now alphabet. numbers may be too low there even apple came charging back after opening down a couple of bucks. why not? the president is playing nice to the japanese and europeans that gives him a stronger hand with china these days we also round up the usual suspects we have a whole cohort of the cloud kings you heard me name over and over again. they become go-to names. when people are worried about an e

jay powell starts it off.rything you want to hear him say, we'll have more rate cuts but he says it is transitory? >> that ruins everything. he is going along so great. kind of conversations i have, you say one thing, one word all of sudden markets get crazy. you know it is interesting, i think the markets reaction to him saying that word was fair in the sense that i believe that jerome powell probably overplayed that hand a little bit because if you look at any data points out there, charles, whatever your inflation data point of the week is, whether core pce. gdp deflator, cpi, all those things are running buy low the fed target rate at 2%. to me, they have been doing so for a while. some of those numbers are coming down further from being higher last year. so to me, saying this back off of inflation is transitory is probably not the right word to use because of the fact that it seems like it is picking up speed. i think that is what the market is concerned about. charles: i talk about wall street temper tan

jay powell actually talked about this on the conference call that the downward pressures on inflation are transient and when they start to come back and we start getting close to the 2% number the market will be focused on what the fed's going to do and the talk of a cut is going to be a distant memory >> he was very explicit. there was no reason in his view, in the policymaker's view to move either way on rates >> they know he's going to cut rates and let's be clear, folks, and i say this over and over again. a growth scare is a lot worse than an inflation scare because it does mean that there would be some underlying strength to the economy, pricing power and you name it. the fed is trying to restore asset prices and guy brings this up all of the time and if you look at asset prices we're at a scary high number and the fed has to do almost a miraculous job while stepping out of the way of fueling it. i think the market -- what dan is basically saying, tomorrow the market will wake up and say the fed did almost nothing and you probably should be holding your breath. the seasonal effe

that ofents echoed chairman jay powell at last week's news conference.hat of chairman jay powell at last week's news conference. >> inflation has been running on the soft side recently. we think there is temporary factors to some of that so our baseline view is that inflation will begin to move up towards our 2% objective. we are looking at the data closely. >> iran>> iran is scaling back e commitments made as part of its nuclear pact. the nation has submitted a letter to the various nations that are party to the deal. this is in response to the u.s. ratcheting up economic pressure earlier this month. did not extend waivers that let some governments import iranian oil. this is part of a drive to cut around oil exports to zero. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna and matt. matt: thanks very much. coming up, jamie dimon channels andinner brexit minister says no deal is better than a bad deal. -chinatalking about u.s. trade talks. w

. >> you know what i think, can the fed be more fluid in i think jay powell that's the ability to bet nervous about this and stretches out a bit whether it is mexico or china, one or the other or both. if they decide they want to ease, not take a chance, just to give not necessarily an insurance cut but to deal with some of the volatility and uncertainty with tariffs getting longer in the tooth, are they quick to take it back if things start to improve and talks started to make head way i wouldn't have a problem with that if they can't do that, then they should keep the powder dry >> you don't want that, rick you ask for. that you don't want that >> i always want that. >> no, you don't listen to me i'll tell you what you want, rick >> we don't know what that make of the fed we go this way for a minute then back the other way there is incredible momentum to policy >> so, steve, when you buy a position in stocks, you never get out? it goes up and down, you don't adjust it? why can't the fed adjust >> making interest rate policy for the most important economic country -- >> press it out

he says jay powell should echo what the pboc is doing to support the economy in china.will be pumping money into the system and reducing rates to make up for the business they are losing in the trade war. he added it would be game over if the fed did the same and he still thinks china wants a deal. president trump has dismissed a new york times report that his administration is planning for war with iran and will send 120,000 troops to the middle east. tensions have been rising after trump revoked waivers that had allowed iran to continue selling oil to some customers. the president says the latest reports of war plans are groundless. pres. trump: fake news. what i do that? absolutely. but we have not planned for that. hopefully we are not going to have to. we would send a hell of a lot more troops than that. jessica: saudi arabia briefly shut its biggest oil pipeline after attack drones targeted pumping stations. a rebel group in yemen claimed responsibility. the u.s. ambassador to saudi arabia says separate saudi claims of attacks on oil tankers should be investigated

it was as if, as if they were frozen in time right when jay powell gave the market the heisman when itsted to him that the markets were expecting a rate cut. they held the line in those minutes today. i don't think the market is going to like it. dagen: gary, look at the markets, kind of teetering and tottering, roughly down 80 points at the moment, about 79 points on the dow right now. listen what secretary mnuchin said on capitol hill about the trade talks, gary. >> we were beginning to set up a date for the two presidents to meet and a signing ceremony. i think it would have been the most, biggest change in their economic relationship that we ever had and unfortunately china is taking a big step backyards. now sometimes you have to go backwards before you go forwards. i'm still hopeful we can get back to the table. the two presidents will most likely see each other at the end of june. dagen: are people being too optimistic about this getting done, gary? how do you invest money? there was a great story in the "wall street journal" called, trading a trade battle. the markets don't app

we will bring you full coverage of the fed decision and chairman jay powell's news conference that allrts today at 2:00 p.m. eastern >>> turning now to china another round of high-level trade talks just wrapping up in beijing. we heard from treasury secretary mnuchin overnight. he tweeted, u.s. trade rep lighthizer and i just concluded productive meetings with china's vice premier we'll continue our talks in washington, d.c. next week in the meantime, president trump and democratic congressional leaders finding common ground. the two sides agreed to aim for a $2 trillion infrastructure package. house speaker nancy pelosi and senate mind leader chuck schumer said the white house meeting was productive and they would return in three weeks to hear the president's ideas how to pay for the bill i'd guess that would be a much more contentious discussion. the republican lawmakers may be tougher to convince. gop leaders warned about deficit effects of a major new spending bill in the past the president and the republicans have said they would like to see public-private cooperation and a lot of

. >>> federal reserve chair jay powell spoke last night at an event in florida here's what he said about>> despite cross currents, the economy is showing continued growth, strong job creation, and rising wages, all in a context of muted inflation pressures >> powell also said that the fed will continue to assess the impact of growing corporate debt, but seize tes the overalls as moderate. >>> the ongoing trade war with china continues to weigh on stocks, but driven by fear and greed it's been a benefit to the bond market. that's according to our next guest, mark grant who is the chief global market strategist at b riley fbr it's great to see you, explain what you mean? >> well, the chinese issue has caused every day for the last month, you know, the market's up because the china trade tensions have eased, the market's down because they've escalated. as a matter of fact, becky, i think the china issue is the second most important issue. i think the far bigger issue right now, which nobody's talking about, are the elections in europe because i see germany and france being outed by the popu

by the way, the two-year and ten-year, they have not inverted yet, but that one, jay powell himself,id that's a chart you have to watch, so if he says it, we're going to show it to you, and there it is. all right, clearly a lot of risk out there. but should it be all fear or can even the most bearish among us find reasons to buy? joining us is charles schwab chief global investment strategist, jeffrey kleintop we're going to walk through reasons to buy, reasons to sell. i wants to start with the good news, if you had to make the bull case for equities anywhere in the world, the green light, what would you say >> i'd have to say there's the possibility of fiscal stimulus, maybe tax cuts in europe, maybe even japan this year that was something that really made a difference for the u.s. last year, but this year even as the u.s. china trade war doesn't really touch europe, they are looking at an economic slowdown. germany has the capacity through a massive budget surplus cut corporate taxes. we're hearing this elsewhere, francis macron who suffered a big setback in the parliamentary elec

as the market kept rolling over, we kept hearing rumbles that jay powell supposedly knows something.aybe the employment number tomorrow will be too strong. you know the drill you get an excessively positive report from the labor department tomorrow morning and anyone calling for rate cuts will look like a dope. [ booing ] instead, the same course of inflation hawks who convinced powell to declare war on the economy in the fourth quarter of last year will come right back and start arguing for more hikes immediately at 8:31 tomorrow these people will never admit that they're wrong they refuse to acknowledge the fed overdid it when it tightened nine times and gave us an inverted yield curve where the short rates that the fed controls are around because they're even higher than the lower term rates it often signals an economic slowdown that whole litany has come right back into play, darn it. like the fourth quarter. geez, it makes me so angry, because that's inspired the powell bear market now let's put everything on hold for a second instead, let's go back to the original selling yeste

jay powell has talked about, edward lawrence our colleague asked him about it, a healthy outlook for growth what he talked about. maybe market and investors ahead of themselves, expecting a rate cut. how do you see it? >> i think that is ridiculous which is why the fed should be abolished anyway. if you have 3.2% gdp growth, 280,000 print in adp jobs this morning, struggle for jobs, struggle for everything else, input cost of farmers and cost of services are boeing higher yet we've got a problem. you tell me why this economy is if it is so good why can't they hike rates? why are we talking about cutting rates? i understand the political side of it, but from a straight monetary standpoint the fed should be ended because they can't make a decision. let the free market decide because there are higher interest rates everywhere but the federal reserve. melissa: the pictures on the side of your screen there. these are violent clashes escalating in venezuela. we've been watching this as opposition leader juan guaido is calling for the largest march in the country's history against disputed