some republicans say they support jay powell. are you hearing from colleagues that they are open to resisting jay powell? sen. warren: i don't want to represent anybody else's point of view, but i am not the only person who has been concerned about his approach to regulation. i want to put this in context. i think back to 2007, 2008, when the fed would not step up and regulate the giant financial institutions. good on monetary policy, but not regulate financial institutions, afraid to rein them in. a bit at a time they kept loosening regulations until those giant institutions took on too much risk and crashed the whole economy. i came to washington to make sure that have -- that never happens again. i want to see a fed chair who cares about both parts of the job, monetary policy, but willingness to regulate giant financial institutions equally important. david: i have not talked to anyone who was around in 2007 who wants to repeat that. my law school classmate can tell you about it. how close are we to that now? how far have we c

let me recap what has been said in particular by jay powell. appreciate that it was hard to hear exactly what he was saying, taylor. what he was saying is that we are on track to taper asset purchases. he says that is likely to be completed by mid 2022 and he is indicating that he believes apply constraints will linger well into 2022. that is not at odds with this idea that we are seeing transitory inflation, but certainly talking about that transitory. -- that transitory period busting longer. taylor: it does not mean -- that transitory period lasting longer. taylor: that might not square with some of the definitions of what other people are talking about when they say transitory. guy: the real question is will it be a period of increasing prices? will we see a series of price shocks and then we stabilize at those higher prices or do the prices continue to increase? we don't really know yet. this phase is lasting longer. going through the pmi data, that will last well into next year. taylor: i will credit romaine bostick for pointing this out

coming up later we have francine lacqua speaking with jay powell. a conversation taking place from the research conference. david: just ahead, supply chain issues plaguing, mattel says they are working through all of these issues. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the choice of doing nothing is not an option. >> we have seen an increase month after month, a surge in demand for goods driven by e-commerce but also a shift away from services towards goods. >> it is a market influx. unlike the recession or bankruptcies or the tsunami that has caused shortages in the system, it is a supply issue. >> it has gone up in the volume is up 20% right now. it will even be more as that year goes on. >> the bigger issue right now is the labor force in the united dates and specifically getting more truck driver and truck capacity and warehouse capacity to labor and distribution centers. david: talking to us about the ongoing supply chain squeeze. we also heard from the ceo of mattel who says that his company is working through a lot of these that are hobbl

jay powell is up for renomination.ow progressives like senator warren has called him a dangerous man. you have the likes of treasury secretary janet yellen who says she supports his nomination. lisa: it raises the question of how much president biden would like to see jay powell renominated cannot shake the bow. what is the view on that? >> the infrastructure spending is definitely the president's first and foremost agenda. he will be having a number of meetings throughout the week he went to capitol hill friday to try to unify the party. in this sense there was a win for the progressives. he said the bills are going to happen together. we are not meant to get hard infrastructure until we get a framework, and the progressives want to vote, on reconciliation. he did say it is not meant to be $3.5 trillion. this is going to be the tenuous negotiation. the president is going to be a speech -- be giving a speech on the debt ceiling. a lot of issues for the business community are front and center. jonathan: can we get a bas

we'll let you write the bill s jay powell one of those other things, question mark? rre, one of the spokespeople at the white house did say for now, here is the quote, biden does have confidence in powell at this time which i thought was a little ominous. >> yes. charles: here's a question for you, jim, say we have brainard in charge of the fed, omarova at occ, yellen at treasury, fundamentally could they fundamentally change our economic and banking system? >> banking system for sure because i think open mo rove have and brainard are more progressive, they want to see higher regulations on banks. omarova doesn't want to have banks anymore. monetary policywise, the economic system, they were kind of in line with what the fed wag doing anyway. there is not a radical shift. you don't expect rates to go down or more easing or more quantitative easing. that part of it wouldn't change as much. look, i will be very honest with you at the end of the day if they want to hammer the banks in kind of a progressive type of vision where they're going to go, all the more positive f

there has been focused on the money printing done by jay powell and the federal reserve but that is a separate issue. that is something that applies in the hands of the u.s. treasury and janet yellen. because of the stakes and the possibility of a default of the world's largest economy, it has been the purview of the federal reserve to offer commentary on what the stakes might be to the economy if that happened so i think you hear commentary from jay powell, not so long ago, saying congress should act to address the debt ceiling and make sure the united states can pay its bills to stop there -- offer their recommendation on how to do that, saying they should raise the debt ceiling which i think is something we saw at the roundtable with the white house is a prevailing view among the wall street and the economist community. pedro: he is a reporter for finance -- yahoo! finance. if you want to ask him questions, you are invited to call (202) 748-8001 for republicans, (202) 748-8000 for democrats, and (202) 748-8002 for independents. you report on matters of the economy. what are those l

. >> does this whole episode, is it going to upset jay powell's chances of being renominated for the fed? >> you know, it certainly has raised questions whether or not he was quite the shoe in others thought ahead of time. he was already facing concerns about the inflation that's out there, whether policy has been right. and now this conflict of interest issue is something that has been a knock against him i think it's not -- it is fair to say this is an effort to get ahead of that. certainly, this is something the fed has done for the first time prospectively after the series of reports that have come out one after another about reserve trading. >> steve thank you for that, with the breaking news. >>> we are watching the s&p 500 to see if it can keep the winning streak going one more day. dow is lower, nasdaq higher, s&p 500 is flat. the focus right now is of course on earnings, especially the guidance bob pisani is following that from the new york stock exchange, hey, bob. >> hello there, scotty good to see you. bottom line so far is earnings are good they are just not as good as t

warren: i already said i can't support jay powell for re- nomination. my view is he ends his term, we put somebody else in place. i think the fed will be better off and our economy will be safer. david: let's talk about who that

what's jay powell going to do? a third of all the goods from china are hung up in ports outside of the u.s. west coast. that's the problem. now, we've all had, we've all said sitting here right now let's pour in $6 trillion in spending from the government on top of that. liz: oh, well -- >> it's not looking good. liz: speaking of which, we're getting right to that right now. scott, tom, lively discussion. and as i said, speaking of which, let's get to the spending bill and where we stand right now. let's go straight live to chad pergram, it's happening right now. democrats working feverishly, around the clock to try and get a detailed framework for president biden's build back better plan. they'd like to have nearly $2 trillion set before the president at least for the u.n. climate change conference and g20 next weekend. will they? and at a town hall last night, the president admitted key proposals would likely be cut to appease no rates within the party, name -- moderates in the party. to chad pergram who's been c

speaking on the senate floor, she questioned why jay powell did not prevent officials from making the investments. in a later interview, she repeated her opposition to powell's reappointment. >> i can't support jay powell for renomination. my view is he ends his term with somebody else in place. i think the fed will be better off and that economy will be safer. rishaad: the securities and exchange commission chair saying the u.s. will not follow china's lead in banning digital tokens. the government focuses on ensuring the crypto industry adheres to consumer protection rules and keep money laundering regulations also part of that. beijing also with a sweeping ultimatum against crypto trading, all transactions. that is a look at the headlines. yvonne: still ahead, gicc ceo says he doesn't face a risk from evergrande's debt crisis. that is next. hong kong's chief executive the last policy speech of her term. this is bloomberg. yvonne: equity markets in china right now. china is closed. they still exclude that. hang seng and h-shares doing this. some downside pressure as we count down to

jay powell and our elected leaders in washington had the same idea.ssion. they took bold action to present it from happening. we got major scientific breakthroughs faster than we thought, moderna, pfizer, j&j, which we thought would take a prolonged pandemic off the table. once the vaccines arrived the vast majority of american businesses were caught with their pants down they prepared themselves for a lengthy downturn jay powell gave the economy the lifeline it needed to get through the pandemic he's not going to start raising interest rates until we've cl clearly got the -- when we got the vaccines to begin with, who wauf thought people objected to taking it powell said this thing's not solved i think he looks like a visionary. it's not fed's fault that we haven't beaten the virus yet jay powell doesn't have the authority to force people to get vaccinated if you want higher interest rates, you should blame our elected leaders for dragging their heels on vaccine mandates. i think it's insane that our government lets this thing drag on rather than for

senator warren yesterday being pretty vociferous about her opposition to reconfirming jay powell as fedident biden's press secretary said biden does have confidence in powell at this time. what are you hearing in terms of what that means, how far that confidence will go in terms of going against the progressive wing in getting jay powell back in the seat for another term? emily: should biden decide that he wants to nominate jay powell for another term, usually when it comes to these biden nominees, we think it is 50 senate democrats, all 50 democrats need to be on board, and if one of them isn't, that is a problem. but that is not the case with powell. he has a lot of rapport from republicans, and a number of republicans have said they will support his nomination. that means president biden can technically afford to lose senators like senator warren and perhaps a handful of other progressive senators because he will make up those votes with republicans. also remember that in terms of nominees that biden needs to nominate to the fed, powell is not the only one up. there are other positio

until that october sale of stock jay powell, the s&p 500 went up 4%. that it has risen 31%. so there is a lot of investigating, further investigating that i think the media needs to do to look into this. charles: real quick, danielle. it is not a secret brainard wants this job. she made specific speeches auditioning for this job. >> she has. we have to remember she was promised to be treasury secretary janet yellen had hillary clinton would be elected. she publicly donated to her campaign which is a big know know at the federal reserve by the way -- no, no. she thought she was in line to be treasury secretary under president biden. that was looked over as well. i think she feels three strikes she is out. i don't think she wants lower provision of vice-chair of supervision, regulation. that is being bandied about. if you look at vegas betting odds, still have jay powell in the running and brainard's numbers have not moved up appreciate i about. to me that says what a difficult time the biden administration will have getting brainard's nomination through

senator warren said jay powell showed bad judgment by failing to stop unusual trading activity by topthe senate floor, she questioned why powell did not prevent officials from making the investments, and in a later interview, she repeated her opposition to powell's reappointment. >> i cannot support jay powell for renomination. my view is he ends his term, we put somebody else in place. i think the fed will be better off in the economy will be safer. laura: global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: coming up, higher yields for an ugly open and european stocks. haven flows into the dollar. we will dig into the market action. we will sort through this messy open. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in this environment where rates are likely to go up on the back of higher inflation, what you do not want to own his long duration income, because you are more vulnerable. there is no place to hide. you want to own businesses and assets that can grow, and if multiples come down, v

no, jay powell is so rigorous.n't i don't the term -- he didn't go on transitory the last time, but i think these little points, natural gas peaking, spr, they can start going and have a momentum and make it so the finance guys who, by the way, the finance guys are the buyers at the -- thank for you that, great work the henry hub, natural gas, a lot of that is hedge funds. >> speculators >> speculators >> do you think we'll be sitting here two years from now talking about it's transient or by then will you admit it wasn't >> i'm with jay powell ives with jay powell the whole time i'm staying with him. >> it's like the president may be with him, too. >> i think jen psaki was asked, does he have confidence, and she said, they do, the white house has confidence. >> he favors putting as many people to work as possible i think the problem is finding them everybody has to learn what happened to the 60 to 65-year-old cohort who left the -- >> the great resignation >> then people in their 60s. anyone who hears they need a

and what jay powell said about inflation. he spoke at a big conference in south africa reserve bank. our own francine was on a panel they got to ask him some important question. inflation was back down to our 2% goal. even more important, he said the risk is that we will see inflation persisting and inflation moving higher. that is why he said yes, it is time to taper. i don't think it is time to cut rates. since he is acknowledging the inflation risk, people have a sense now that the fed is on it and they will not flat -- let inflation get out of control. that is why we used -- we have seen a down spin in bonds. haidi: another key voice in the medium turn is janet yellen saying that over the weekend, there will be higher inflation. probably through the middle of 2022 but she said it doesn't feel to her that policymakers have lost control of the situation. it is a matter of perspective. many americans haven't seen these levels of inflation in quite some time hence, it might be alarming. it was was interesting that she hasn't

knows what to do with, the fed needs to stop it i guess should say and others whoever would replace jay powellworse, even more dovish if that's possible. >> we know what were dealing with with jerome powell, he understands hopefully the situation sooner or later they will have to quit buying the treasury bonds, they do that, when that happens you know it's getting ready to happen it's gonnaod get tough there gonna flood the country with all this money the 3.5 or 2.5 trillion but hopefully we can cut back on that and get people back to work and back to school and get small businesses going again were still hurting in alabama and all over the south and all over the country the blue state mayors and governors have almost put us all under but i think we've got a chance, we gotta do it the american way there tried to make to americas and we cannot survive to americans there can only be one. larry: i love that one from not moscow state university. senator tuberville, thank you for your time i hope to see you soon. >> the media and the left are vilifying kyrsten sinema and joe manchin to save democra

you mentioned that jay powell's statement that inflation may be more than transitory is concerning to investors but the s&p and nasdaq getting 2%, where are you seeing the inflationary concerns play out? >> if i am just looking for telltale signs, the fact that the fed actually increased the cost of living adjustment for next year for social security benefits to 5.9% for next year, that tells me everything i need to know, right if we look at the last couple of years it was 1.6% i believe in 2019 and 1.3% for 2020 so if i look at that, that's more than four times that c.o.l.a. for the last year, which tells me that if i am a retiree or even a pre-retiree, i should be concerned and careful how i draw down that portfolio going forward. if i think about the simple math on it, the rule of 72 for a couple who's living off say $100,000 in retirement right now, i divide 72 by 5.9%, that tells me that something like 11, maybe -- 11, 12 years is what it would take for that $100,000 to buy me $50,000 worth of goods p that's not great that should be concerning for anybody younger than, say, 90 ye

jay powell has said they should not be part of the stress tests. we should monitor them, but don't make them a requirement in terms of whether you can distribute capital or not. an interesting dynamic, an interesting sort of split on the fed here. guy: elizabeth warren really has set the cat amongst the pigeons in all of this, hasn't she? some interesting decisions to be made over the next few weeks. mike mckee, thanks very much, indeed. we are going to carry on a little bit with that environmental theme, that climate concern theme. aniket shah, jeffries global head of esg, is going to be joining us later on. coming up, we are going to talk more about these markets. jonathan golub, credit squeeze u.s. equity -- credit suisse u.s. equity strategist, joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are starting to experience elevated volatility in the markets which which can be attributed to the uncertainty that has been introduced by a delay in the debt limit. we would expect a continued delay would further destabilize the markets. guy: adena friedman of

given the recent stock trading news, do you think fed chief jay powell's days are numbered?february? >> i think they will keep him. that is my guess. i have no knowledge whatsoever but i think they think, hey, under him he has printed enough money to last a few decades and if kept markets in good stead which matters to them because, i must tell you, if the economy loses the wealth effect, all heck breaks loose. i think they will stick with what they know versus what they don't know. for some of the people who may get in, it is no better. they all believe trying to play god with markets. every time the markets are down, easier money or printing of money, ultimately that will be bad news. but again, i'm pretty sure they will stick with him. if i'm wrong, look out. lauren: do you think though dealing with many of the people that are making these decisions and how they think that jay powell just becomes a sacrificial lam to the progressive wish-list? that they're upset what he has done with the free money? they're upset with insider trading going on at the fed? >> well one thing

it follows a scandal that led to two departures and clouded jay powell's have to renomination.ly, why was this even an issue? this should have been done quite some time ago. >> [indiscernible] shery: we have a little bit of an issue hearing you. we will come back to that story. we now know more about the whistleblower who gave extensive evidence to regulators in a rigging scandal almost a decade ago. he or she was given almost $2 million as an award and that is a record. the tipsters identity is still being kept confidential. >> his or her attorney is saying yes, the identity remains confidential. however, in may the washington journal reported it represented a deutsche bank worker who was said to receive a major payout. it was one of the most sweeping abuses back in the 2008 financial crisis. global watchdogs investigating what appeared to be traders at multiple banks submitting bogus rates. what we now know is the $200 million payout has been awarded to the tipster who provided extensive evidence that included documents and trading records and that helped the regulators bring

maria: they are trying to -- they are trying to take down jay powell what i hear you saying trying tone else in there important point you are taking your thoughts on bitcoin near all-time high you futures bitcoin etf going to be on new york stock exchange would you buy that. >> i wouldn't, i have to say i am agnostic about crypto, i am a financial market person so i am trying not to make big value judgments on it, in my opinion, i don't view bitcoin as having real sustainable value. because no cash flows associated with it i also think that the regulations that are going to be brought to bear -- um -- by federal government central banks are going to be so enormous that it is going to be very difficult to transact as honest person in bitcoin. so the appeal of it, in my opinion, is not going to be particularly long-lasting that is my opinion. if you want to if you want to hedge currencies would i stick more traditional i think wise to hedge but i would stick more with gold, real estate, commodities overall. >> you made so many great points today thanks very much, by the way, we know it

republican say they support jay powell. hearing colleagues who would be open to resisting jay powell? >> never want to represent some of the else's point of view. i am not the only person who has been concerned about his approach to regulation. i just want to give this a little context. the way i think about this, i think back to 2007, 2008 when the fed would not step up and regulate the giant financial institutions. good on monetary policy but not step up and regulate those financial institutions. they capture loosening those regulations until those giant institutions took on too much risk and crash the whole economy. i came to washington to make sure that never happened again. what i want to see now is a fed chair who cares about both parts of the job. monetary policy, very important but willingness to regulate giant financial institutions equally important. >> i have not talked to anybody who was around 2007 and 2008 who wants to repeat that. how close are we to that now? how far have we come back from where we were in w

is it an acknowledgement of guilt or does it help jay powell's case for reappointment? >>> plus, the donald trump spac, the company set to take trump's planned social media company has fell 1,000% in two days and it is not the only name surging as politics and meme stocks collide. that story and more coming up. >>> first, record highs for the dow and s&p 500 chl welcome back, dom, as well david tepper, you heard him last hour, sees a potential turn offer for equity >> there's a lot of folks out there. i don't believe he is the only one that feels as though this market might be a little bit toppish, a little bit moreover valued, a little less attractive on a risk/reward basis but it tells you a little bit about what is happening overall thematically because we seem to be hitting the record high levels kelly said it first, so i will put the gold stars next to the dow and s&p 500. they did at one point today hit record intraday levels we are not at closes yet however, you can see the s&p backed off right now, down about ten points i will give you context. on the day's high

>> i would agree with that i think the longer term mantra for jay powell has been -- at least in thear has to be the jobs number has to be back to where it was pre-pandemic we're not there yet and we've had the pull backs and fears and pullbacks over the delta variant. i think when we get to a point the jobs are stable, the inflation rate, the j-- inflatin rates are transitory. >> we have seen the markets pull back a little bit and you think that even though most of the averages are down 5% or less that this is a time that you'd actually buy in. you think stocks are going to be up the last three months of the year >> i do. i think we'll finish in the green. i think september was a little bit of a hoe hum sort of month as it typically is but fundamentals remain strong, trillions of dollars sitting in savings accounts or money markets that are earning zero. we'll get some sort of spending bill on infrastructure and companies are flush with cash right now, strong balance sheets i think that will translate into hiring earnings have been stellar if that continues i'm bullish towards the e

process to choose that next fed leader and he has not decided whether to reappoint or replace chair jay powellvid: we spoke with sherrod brown and he began by discussion of the stock trading scandal which forced resignation of officials robert kaplan and eric. >> i don't know if we have got to the bottom of it, i assume we haven't. i introduced an amendment to a bill six or seven years ago that individual senators could not hold individual corporate stocks. every corporate stock a senator has his potential conflict of interest because we float -- vote on everything. the same with the fed. these are influential people, they should not be spending their time daytrading, not to mention the conflict of interest in the appearance of conflicts of interest. many presidents have resigned as they should have, i think we need to know more and i'm working on legislation i have been putting together for some time that would say members of congress should not be able to hold corporate stocks, reintroduce that and that fed chairs and presidents, governors and presidents who are the 12 regional fence, the go

jay powell the times said it thinks he probably has. what is going to meet that hurdle? payrolls for the month of september are expected to rise by 500,000. that would be more than double august 235,000. if we go to the bloomberg chart, there has been a decline in the delta variant cases. also an expiration of the pandemic jobless benefits. some people were getting $300 per week in addition to their state unemployment benefits. people are thinking that's going to push more to go out and find a job. jay powell was pushed the press conference. for what he is looking for in the jobs report. he said a decent report would be enough. when you look at these bars showing the last one at 235, not as big as the giant ones near a million, but that would be considered a decent report. in fact, if again as low as -- as low as 235,000 would satisfy the substantial further progress criteria. they are looking for a gain of 750,000. the unemployed rate expected default to 5.1%. not because the market is weaker, but because people are looking for jobs now. they are it having a job, they a

i don't think it's a smart idea to replace jay powell at this moment in time. maria: yeah.their narrative. great to see everybody this morning. thank you so much, francis, kenny and keith fitzgerald. quick break. much more ahead this morning. coming up, the white house skirting the question about migrant children being flown secretly from border states into the rest of the country, something we've been reporting for weeks now. new york congressman john k atko is here. netflix earnings roundup and the supply chain crunch, how it might affect your thanksgiving dinner. should you buy your turkey now? what you need to know. joining the conversation all morning long this morning, dagen mcdowell and tammy bruce. we'll get back to this fantastic panel when we come right back. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced s

elizabeth warren gave a lot of progressives cover by speaking so harshly about jay powell.ot of other progressives may jump on board. alix: we are looking at a world where we may get an infrastructure bill for the human infrastructure part, a world with more regulation where the tax burden may not be as significant and we are still heading to a debt ceiling. does this calculus disrupt the fed and their monetary policy right now? greg: it is a great point. within the federal reserve they have to be making contingency plans for how to deal with a real default crisis. i'm not sure if it is october 18 or november 7. it may slip into november. the main point is the fed may have to come up with extraordinary measures. they do not want to advertise it because that can make people on the hill less cooperative for getting something done. i think the fed's trillions of dollars may have to be deployed, at least some of it, to buy bonds in danger of default. guy: the shockwave that would send around the global economy are absolutely enormous. this would be a massive financial event. ho

haidi: president biden, we are told he has not decided whether to reappoint or replace chair jay powellpoke with the committee banking chairman. you discussed the scandal regarding the top fed officials. >> i don't know if we have gotten to the bottom of it, i assume we have not. i introduced the amendment to a bill six or seven years ago, that individual senators could not hold individual corporate stocks. it has a potential conflict of interest because we vote on everything in the economy. but the federal reserve, these are seven very influential people. they should not be spending their time daytrading, not to mention the conflicts of interest it presents, in the appearance of conflicts of interest. two fed presidents have resigned, as they should have. we need to know more, and i am working on legislation that i have been putting together for some time. it would say, members of congress should be able to hold corporate stocks, and fed chairs and presidents. the governors and presidents of the 12 regional feds, the fed governors, and the seven in washington, from jay powell told dale

chair jay powell opened an investigation into the ethics rules.news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much. against the backdrop of surging travel demand, the international travel transport held their general meeting. guy johnson spoke about the recovery of international travel. >> the other strong message i think is the resilience of the industry despite massive losses. we are still here and still optimistic. i think the industry has learned a lot. it has significantly restructured, and i believe the future is quite positive. >> you have indicated that you think the worst is behind the industry. what is your degree of confidence that the worst is behind us? >> i think the forecast for losses significantly reduced. that is to lead loss for the industry. but if you look back to 2020, we were talking about nearly 140 -- $140 billion. we are going in the right direction and we've got to take confidence in recent annou

elizabeth warren has criticized the federal reserve's leadership, saying chair jay powell showed bad nt by failing to stop unusual trading activity by top officials. warren questioned why powell did not prevent officials from making the investment. in a later interview with bloomberg, he repeated the opposition to powell's reappointment. >> i cannot support jay powell for renomination. so my view is he ends his term with somebody else in place and i think the fed will be better off and i think our economy will be safer. dani: chinese president xi jinping is said to be planning to skip the g20 summit in rome this month. sources tell bloomberg that xi will not attend the meeting in person, citing china's covid protocols. xi has not been outside of china since january 2020 but he has attended several meetings virtually. the g20 leaders summit begins on october 30. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani. dani: juliette, thanks very much. juliette saly in singapor

jay powell is on line 3 for you. guy: i will pick it up but alix will be think about the answer.ichael mckee, thank you. shortages of natural gas in europe and asia boosting demand for oil. that deepening the supply deficit. copper past $10,000 a ton, the highest since june. where do we go from here? does this continue? eddie van der walt giving us a sense of what is happening. normally i would take this as a sign the global economy is on a strong trajectory. is that the right way to read this? but the energy read across is very confusing. eddie: there is not a story in the global economy right now i cannot draw back to the commodities complex. banks are doing well. well, inflation is high because commodity prices are high. you ask whether this is a bullish story. i think we are seeing demand destruction happening in a lot of spaces. zinc smelters scaling back production because natural gas prices are so high. it comes back to commodities. does it keep going? i think we have got to worry it does because if it does, even though demand is not as strong as we but like, that tells us

this does really feel like mounting another attack on fed chair jay powell.ven if we were to get a different fed chief who be dovish, there will be some recalibration in the market as that leader proves themselves, what their rhetoric is, how they deliver press conferences and that is a jumpy time. guy: it is uncertainty, we don't know ultimately what it will lead to. the market will have to discount that. i think the emphasis will be more in terms of the change falling on the regulatory side but monetary policy could be critical over the next few months. we are dealing with an inflationary resurge. how is the communication go to change? all of that is obviously usually important for the market. i think you just need to fold to what is happening here because she is pushing at something that is part of a wider narrative. that is that you have this huge tussle and the democrats between the moderates, those more center, and those further to the left. we be those to the left don't get what they want in terms of the spending numbers. they be one way to deal with t

add to that, phil, speculation that jay powell may not be the next fed chairman, right?s increasing. over the weekend a lot of people talking about vice chairman clarida, aggressively trading on market on eve of a major announcement about covid actions they were going to take. lael brainard, who is far left in terms of banking regulations she may get the job. it wouldn't be just this one particular person. would you have a whole lot of people who did not really have faith in our banking system and our economic structure. in my mind they have want to change it based mostly on social justice, not necessarily economics. >> you're right. i just don't think you can throw the baby out with the bath water. people on both sides will look at this around see it is lunacy. she how much banks throw at them from lobbying standpoint to prevent this happening. there is hard concrete evidence we don't get there and what republicans and democrats would stand up, to the tone of this you're spot on, there is this mindset the federal government is better with your money than a private bank.

ken: the only time i publicly spoke out against trump was defending jay powell.nk trump's efforts to control the fed were improper. we need to maintain the belief in the separation of the fed from the whims of washington to maintain a strong dollar. it is just that simple. so every time a politician goes after the fed and a very personal and inappropriate way, if you are part of the financial community, you need to push back on that and make it clear that we need the separation between the halls of washington and the choices made in the federal reserve board. there is a geopolitical factor -- erik: there is a geopolitical factor weighing in that is china. there are many americans who believe that we are locked in an existential battle with china, a battle that will defined the 21st century and that it is high time we fought back. that is what they think. i want to be clear, and in fact more importantly, i want you to be clear, but as i understand it, you believe the united states is making a huge mistake trying to decouple this economy from china's, and you belie

problem number two, i would bet you cash money that jay powell and janet yellen would pick a differentord than transitory. it doesn't mean inflation goes up and down. it means the prices go up and then they stay there but the ral rate of inflation calms down. instead of 5%, it might be 3% or 2%, closer to the national average but we're not going to see prices from a year ago coming back in this economy. nobody should expect that. >> let's talk about some of the things i spoke with my last guests about, what's happening in washington. so this proposed billionaire's tax to pay for the president's spending bill, the proposal would tax billionaires on the gain in value of certain alteassets every year instead of when those assets are sold. could this raise enough to pay for biden's agenda? >> it can't. the president wants to spend $1.9 trillion, progressives want to spend 3.5 but we know it's not going to get there. even if you tax the 700 people, to which the new tax would apply, it would be a quarter of a trillion dollars, which is not enough money to get done what the president wants to

>> really all eyes will be on the saudi oil minister, he really is now the jay powell of the oil markets. the question is will the saudis and opec essentially say 400,000 barrels additional coming onto the market weis not enough we'r going to do more because we're concerned of an oil market the big question is, if we have a cold winter, are we going to have more demand in europe and asia for oil as a substitution product because there's real issues about power generation. so i think if there is a significant chance they say 400,000 is not enough we'll do more if they don't put more than 400,000 on the market they'll signal they're meeting every month and adjust as needed this is the new thing, the monthly meeting structure. >> i don't know if you saw over the weekend, but scott sheffield, the only oil ceo i've seen at an opec meeting. >> yes. >> over the weekend telling "the financial times" that basically opec is in control the american producers don't have the ability to contro prices because they're not growing. it's all about opec, would you agree? >> opec is really the only game in

give jay powell a break.nces he's in right now, all those people make fun and ask questions about why do people buy stocks and stuff, they would be silenced, because they have nothing to hueckle him with >> we'll be reporting earnings in not too long of a time. does this say anything about the overall macro? >> i still think there are not enough corporations that are bringing people -- you know, kind of cajoling people back to work, so to speak. obviously teachers don't want to go in and get sick look, people are still thinking about dying. the only people that aren't are the europeans, they have solved the problem. i%ing that we have not, but jay powell says, you know what i'm staying the course therefore, the market should rally. he's not going to be in the way. >> yousaw samsung, i thought there was a chip shortage. what did they do, 28% or something? >> there's nothing they can do when you see that mannheim index spike, you know there's just not enough cars. last night ford mexico, it's just every day the

but let's back up for a second and think about what treasury secretary yellin and fed chair jay powell were saying back in may. they said it was going to be transitory, right, which to the consumers minds means it's going to go up and it's going to go back down. and on friday powell said you know what, our supply side challenges are worse than we thought. inflation is going to steak around for a while. two things. number one, supply side challenges are we can't get things in through the ports, right? we don't have enough of what american consumers want to buy. that's problem number one. problem number two i would bet you cash money jay powell and janet yellin if they had to do it over again would pick a different word than transitory. because it doesn't mean inflation goes up and prices go down. it means the prices go up and they stay there but the rate of inflation calms down. so instead of 5% it might be 2% or 3%, something closer to the national average. >> let's talk about some of the things i spoke with my last guests about, okay, what's happening in washington. so this proposed b

but jay powell spoke earlier, saying prices that should come down once the supply chain constraint uses- eases. new says they will start to taper their bond buying program. so we will bring a matthew mish from ubs, talking to us about his call that we highlighted at the top. matt, you expect the drop in return to be almost as bad as what we saw in 2008, 3% compared to 5% during the financial crisis. matt: right. it's the third worst return we have had in 30 years. that's obviously driven by rates, specifically the rise in breakevens, but remember the investment rate market is 30% long-duration. so, we actually saw a relief, because the 10's and 30's have a flattened so much. -- have flattened it so much. obviously, we are coming out of covid at low starting points. historically, you have never seen back to back years where there are negative returns. our forecast next year still has 10 years going up four basis points and credit spreads widening in the second half of the year. there is a silver lining, it will not be this bad in 2022, but i think returns will still straddle flat, partic

of the employees we have plastic and that is hurricane driven so the fed can't pitch it unless jay powell controls the weather tough ask. what should powell be doing here i think he should be getting biblical he's been dealt a real job like hand here. people don't want to die they don't want to give up their jobs either but if their job gave up on them, then they want out somewhere else the pandemic changed our behaviors and hardly anyone saw it coming except dr. larry who helped device a frightening movie, a contagion, it is so scary. and he has been predicting exactly what is happened brilliant help to eradicate smallpox he knows what he's talking about. he would be a great adviser for the federal reserve. he would give better advice than most of the commentators the bottom line, for all of the stag flation and the '70s, our current bout of inflation is unique prices are going up because people don't want to die they don't want their families to die they don't want long-term health complications. i think this inflation with higher rates but with pfizer and moderna and j&j, powell gets i

the tightness of the labor market remains when it shows up in wages, and that is something jay powell and company have mentioned. new highs today above $80 again from west texas. they have not been there since 2014, and that keeps energy as a pretty buoyant group across the markets and helping out, and our jobs helping, as well. that yield is notable. we saw that pop after wage inflation today, so we see recalibrating slightly on where folks think along and should be. or what it is worth, we have dual link job reports today and we have seen a big jump in jobs to recover the 3 million jobs lost to covid, adding jobs in september. that does not quite recapture all the jobs in the sense that some of the jobs lost were still gone, and we should have created about half a million more jobs if there had never been a pandemic do just economic growth and immigration. however, it is better news that we might have expected, and that chart paints a picture. are we back to the starting point to where we were with this pandemic began? alix: it could always be better, but here in the u.s., we have u

at multiples and management don't invest in their businesses >> you're critical of a fed chair jay powellhasn't lifted a finger to fight inflation and they've designed to create inflation i don't know if you saw paul jones on the network this morning. he called fed pol see the most inappropriate monetary policy of his lifetime let's listen to what ptj said this morning, david, and we can react on the other side. i'd like your thoughts, too. >> i think the thing that to me is the number one issue facing the man on the street and investors is inflation, and it's pretty clear to me that inflation is not transitory. it's here to stay and it's probably the single biggest threat to financial markets and probably to society just in general. >> it sounds to me like you and paul jones agree almost 100% on the issue of inflation >> i guess that's right. i agree with everything i just heard and said the problem is you say that they don't have the stomach i think that's the word wyou usd making the point that it may cause a recession and caused the stock market to crash. >> that's right. when this ch

dagen: james freeman jump in here if you want to weigh in on the federal reserve and jay powell in ah speaking of the fed, a lot of us wondered why they hadn't-stopped creating money a while ago obviously, economy has been rebounding for over a year now we are sort of talking about the taper -- begins, and ends, what pace a lot of money has been created through this pandemic. >> huge amount of money unprecedented, over used term. they are going to continue to push even if they stay to taper mans which is to start in november, december, about 15 billion a month, treasury, public records 4 to 500 billion dollars in liquidity in market that liquidity is here to stay will get spent it has it is inflationary issues, i think interesting thing with you look at bond market starting to price in this risk of -- of fed mistake on both sides, do they tighten too quickly the bond market could perceive as mistake do they say easy too long not tighten soon enough to stave off nation, so unique push and pull that is happening underneath the surface in capital markets, but i think is important to wat

there has been focused on the money printing done by jay powell and the federal reserve, but that iseparate issue than treasury debt issuance. that is something that is in the hands of the u.s. treasury and janet yellen. however, because of the stakes and the possibility of what would be a default of the world's largest economy, it falls within the purview of the federal reserve to offer commentary on what the stakes might be to the economy if that were to happen. we had commentary from jay powell in congressional testimony not long ago saying that congress should act quickly to address the debt ceiling and make sure the united states can pay its bills. he stopped there. did not offer any recommendations. simply saying they should raise the debt ceiling, which is something coalesced by the white house yesterday, prevailing view among the wall street community. host: this is brian cheung with yahoo finance. he is a reporter for that organization. if you want to ask him questions on matter of the economy and other economic issues in washington, you are invited to call. republicans (202

maria: victoria quick will jay powell be reappointed in your view?arket if he is not that is going to bring a lot more uncertainty that is going to give is fed more he dovish what does that mean going forward, are key for markets to continue to move higher jay powell is that factory. >> understood, thanks so much victoria fernandez joining us on allocating your capital florida senator marco rube here a a hill mary to get a reconciliation deal done, selling real estate on social media the insta-stars growing traditional business with unconventional methods, you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. . when you're driving a lincoln, stress seems to evaporate into thin air. which leaves us to wonder, where does it go? does it get tangled up in knots? or fall victim to gravity? or maybe it winds up somewhere over the bermuda triangle. perhaps you'll come up with your own theory of where the stress goes. behind the wheel of a lincoln is a mighty fine place to start. ♪ ♪ remember when no dream was too big? ♪ ♪ and you could fearlessly fac

i think it would be appropriate to reappoint jay powell as dallas chair he as a lot of other things he'splacement. she's also been on the committee, by the way, she chairs the commit tee i've been inside i've got supervised, they go through the federal reserve also the behavior perhaps moved lael brainard into that position and then perhaps randy quarles >> to not be put in the middle of things -- including these trading scanned always that have come out with three of the different members there that i industry -- just looking at this historically, how would you describe it now? again there are rules i think powell has announced this properly there's an ig investigation of these with, of course, the biggest one, my successor. but, again, you have to remember, the way it works in the system, there is a committee of the board that goes into this every single year, so it wasn't just 2020. i think governor brainard has chaired this committee for the last four years, so they would have seen red flags coming up through that committee, and i guess -- i think they're handling it properly that th

this is the break that jay powell may have wanted, needed. >> you think so?ut he has to be empirical about what it means to cut back on why theism >> on that note, i continue to hear a litany of frustration from those who run large organizations in terms of their ability to get people back into the office i had a lunch and dinner last night, it's a neverending theme. i mean, some of these ceos are at their wit's end how do i get people back in? the younger people in particular they don't get it. they don't understand. it's a new world benioff is, i don't care, stay home as long as you said >> you have to have a test before you go to his house before dinner, and he asks you -- gives you a quiz, how many jobs did you put in how many circles do you make >> maybe he'll start to relax. >> though pwc, the big consulting and accounting firm, telling 40,000 u.s. employees they can work virtually, live anywhere, in perpetuity. >> and as a consultant, they tend to travel all the time anyhow. >> yes. >> but that's amazing. >> e.y. does talk about you need the one meetin

. >> i want to see the jay powell care bear. >> yes care bear's the new bobblehead. >> how much to pay>> shares higher -- >> freaky. >> on the back of the tie-up with target. we'll dig in with an analyst next the best stockn e ithspace he says is not affirm we'll be right back. isn't it a paradox? that the love for this world that gets us out in it sometimes leaves behind the things that can harm it? but now, flight by flight, we can make a difference. because delta has committed to becoming the world's first carbon-neutral airline on a global basis. we believe you shouldn't have to choose between seeing the world, and saving it. ♪♪ >>> shares of a firm rallying on news that it was partnering ahead of the holiday season. that stock is up more than 170%. let's bring you in chris, my first question on days like yesterday when the stock moved up 20% on target news, even more when the announcement came with amazon, does that correlate with the business that a firm will obtain by unlocking the huge consumer base >> absolutely. thanks for having me on. we have every one of these transactions