jay powell saying rates will go up higher, as futures point lower by more than 1%. we also have negative news coming out of china in terms of industrial profits, but also lockdowns in terms of covid very close to beijing. the headwinds around china, and i time when investors are downgrading forecasts. jay powell's comments, but also schnabel saying we will likely have hikes in the ecb into a recession. the debate is whether you go 50 or 75. the spanish ibex down 1.3%. ubs saying that eurozone is already in recession. goldman sachs saying the u.k. is headed in that direction toward the end of this year. the cac 40 down 1.2%. what you saw across wall street last week was on friday,, the nasdaq closing lower by more than 4%, the s&p down by more than 3%. investors digested what was largely seen as more hawkish commentary from jay powell. let's switch it over to how things are playing out across assets. the dollar down. pronounced leading into this risk off sentiment. futures pointing to further losses, 0.7%. yields moved sharply, particularly the two-year. the u.s. 10

jay powell isn't trying to be paul volcker. mays his goal is just not to be arthur burns. what are your thoughts on that? >> well look, hears the problem and this was the example of the arthur burns policy to stop and go, is that if you do not tackle inflation decisively, you're just going to make it worse and my concern is, you know, the fed is always super- aggressive or has been trained everyone to be super- aggressive in easing as soon as there's any sign of trouble, in terms of in a potential crisis. they slipped through this inflation crisis that is hurting so many millions of people. they've been very slow here. they call themselves being aggressive but they aren't. qt has hardly done anything this summer and supposedly final ly in september we'll see that liquidity coming out. so i hope that not too late to the party again, in terms of making another policy mistake. charles: sven, thank you very much, always appreciate these conversations with you. meanwhile, folks, also today, a wave of economic data out. i want to bri

jay powell speaking in wyoming, talking about where monetary policy is going and how long ultimately if he gets up to the terminal rate will it stay there? data dependency remains key. chair powell: restoring stability will require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. guy: joining us now is daniel tarullo, former federal -- fed board governor. thanks for time today. perfectly timed, this conversation. your reaction on what we heard from jay powell? daniel: i think today's speech was about the fed as an institution much more than it was about the economy. last year it was all about the economy. this year was about the fed and its credibility. the fed has obviously had a little bit of difficulty with messaging in recent on. the sense that there might be a pivot towards a looser, at least less-restrictive policy. what jay powell did today was to come out and reinforce the message that other members of the fomc have been giving him the last few weeks. first, he made the economic case for why inflat

in tokyo this is "bloomberg markets: china open," >> top story this morning, jay powell's hotly anticipated speech later on today we are live in jackson hole, stocks rise and the dollar shrugging off the warnings, the central bank timing is not over yet, chinese tech getting a boost with the signs of talks of u.s. regulators avoiding massive delisting is making progress. >> also on our storing, -- story the concern we had about what jay powell might say 12 hours from now thereabouts, this is a sense of being sanguine as well. we have yields pushing up to the margin the dollar all stronger benefiting here. this countdown as it work. >> it is helpful to look at this ways move, in the context of what happened in july and a reversal of that, treasuries or example, for straight weeks of gains they are on the 10 year yields. on the bottom rate locking into positions, the market ties his positions -- it's position at the hawkish consistency out of the fed. the stocks down, the dollars down, the tech story in china started yesterday and the conversations around delisting. you take that away, the im

francine: what are you expecting from jay powell this week? esty: i think there is a little too much expectation he might sound more dovish than he has recently. the minutes of the last meeting were interpreted as a little more dovish just because there was an acknowledgment that the fed will look at the impact of all of the rate hikes they have already done on the economy and we know there is a 3-6 month lag before you have that impact. i think the risk at the moment is that he is on the more hawkish side. think the fed wants to re-emphasize they are not done hiking. the pivot is not so much just going back to more normal hikes. i think we are on that way and past the most aggressive part of the tightening cycle but he could sound a little more hawkish and they definitely want to continue to anchor the long-term inflation expectations. tom: the rhetoric from officials from the fed the last few days has pointed in that direction. a reiteration of the aggressive approach. if we do get a steer in terms of 75 basis points in september and with al

what do you see so far and see is a challenge for jay powell? >> i think jay powell, even if he knew what to do, he would not say. he will be very careful tomorrow. i think the challenge is there is so much sorrow now on the supply side. you mentioned tension with china , trade issues, economic problems. europe is a mess now. they have inflation worse than us. in the u.s. we have inflation's and our own supply issues. we have major spending even though the government says they will reduce the deficit, it will increase and all of the money in the system has to be taken out. it will be a very tough call and interest rates have to go up. how quickly is the question. kathleen: anticipatory from that point, as the fed it did so long with inflation, waiting to see what happens. has that been one of the shifts at the fed? has it that contributed to a surge in inflation? thomas: i think they have been more ambivalent last minutes. chairman powell's last press conference, the market picks right up on that. he will have to be pretty clear that they have t

it is all about this hawkish message jay powell gave us friday. give to the dollar also playing into the fx space. the korean won down around .9%. if i -- it is the biggest decliner in the asia fx space. also keeping an eye the offshore yuan breaking through the key 6.9 level for the first time in two years. that sets us up for a move to the seven level, which our markets live team points out would be extremely important for local markets given their sensitivity to trading flows. what else we are watching, we had that red head crossing the two year yield on the treasury reaching the highest level since 2007. that is also being reflected in the debt space with sovereigns moving as well and the shorter durations. paul: all right, thanks. let's get more on markets and bring an chief risk correspondent for asia and mliv contributor, garfield reynolds. seeing a lot of selling at the moment, some repricing going on. how long do we anticipate this will go on for until markets have correctly priced in the narrative we heard from jay powell on friday? garf

what will jay powell say to the market? esther george is readying the bond market for 4% rates at a glide path. we will hear more from esther george and kathleen hays from jackson hole in just a moment. a quick snapshot of risk. stocks are facing the prospect of 4%. reasons to be bullish. higher wages is not good news for the equities story and we are leaning far too much on cpi. the reasons to be bullish are than a bit thin. dax gone with a rally of .4%. have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you have a yield curve which has bounced from the -50 to 73 and this is significant. this suggests that perhaps the worst has passed in the bond market. the dollar remains resilient. 18% overvalued on a relative basis, relative effective exchange basis. the past 10 years. is the dollar exhausted and something that may come into play? what will jay powell communicate to the market? we are going to the higher ground and we are going to hang out there for a while. kathleen hays is with me from jackson

it is that day where we are getting in that speech from jay powell. the hawkish commentary from bullard and esther in wyoming but the markets are looking through this. use our games yesterday and there is some diversions when it comes to features stateside and what has happened here in europe so far. the futures pointing up and the u.s. futures pointing lower. you have yields from the two to the tens stateside. we continue to monitor what is happening in the energy space and we will break that story down for you. james bullard coming out and saying he favors frontloading and esther george saying we could be above 4% as the fed tries to get inflation down. bullard also saying that the markets might be underestimating the need for the fed to stay longer to pull inflation down. it will be a stickiness possibly that will hang on longer. the cac in france getting 0.6%. let's see how things are playing out across assets and features stateside. -- futures stateside. we have gains of about 0.4% from the s&p yesterday. a pretty solid day across u.s. markets. e

they expected the measures they heard from jay powell. pact going forward is going to have to be taken step-by-step. as you heard, they always want to emphasize data dependent. a long road ahead still. powell has to feel good about getting this message through ahead of time. >> they have that one mantra about dealing with themselves. let's get to the chief rates correspondent. garfield, the dollar just keeps on marking new milestones against a whole gamut of currencies now. >> it is hard to see what will stop it in the short term. amongst the other things. but chair powell, he reinforced the leading role for the federal reserve in the global tightening move. that is driving the strength of the dollar and it is likely to go on driving the strength of the dollar. we talked about the you see the playing catch up. at the same time, we have the doj doubling down on dovishness and we have china also looking to ease policy. that is the last wing of the global currency market. they were nowhere near as hawkish as fed chair powell is sounding. the

jay powell is not necessarily buying that. jonathan: we had the federal president telling us what they are going to do. michael: i think that is the reason powell went to length to explain why he would back off. powell says you cannot go backward. you have to keep at it. that is the message they want to deliver. we are going to bring inflation down. we are not going to change our minds. tom: you look at the academic data with benjamin friedman, one of my first interviews -- a giant on growth. can they pull this off with recession growth? whatever america is feeling, can they pull off all of this, given tepid growth? michael: that remains to be seen. that is the part wall street is challenging. that is the part i will try to push back against today. you talk about under trend growth. you cannot come out and say recession is likely. he could sort of hint that this is going to happen and we are going to push through it. tom: great coverage today. is this the most controversial market economist in america today? jonathan: mike mcke

breaking now despite all the hand-wringing over jay powell's big speech at jackson hole this market is showing quite a bit of resilience. make no mistake powell is facing a "mission: impossible." i have a power panel. danielle dimartino booth and lyn alden will guide us what needs to be said before this economy self-destructs. biden facing major backlash making it rain yet again for college grads. market implications for jim bianco. he will weigh in at 2:15. everyone is fretting over jackson hole, kenny polcari warns us the september is not friendly for the stoke market. paying your own debts is part of fabric of america we must never for get. it bids individual character and into the greatest nation in the world. my take on that later in the show. all that and more on "making money." ♪. ♪. ["mission: impossible" theme] charles: all right. you know, you get the feeling, right, that at some point over the last few months jay powell he walked into a classical music shop. he went to pick up classical sheet music and inside the bag was several posts and charts. good morning, mr. powell. lo

all of this ahead of jay powell's comments at jackson hole and their big symposium today. he will speak at 10:00 a.m we have a taste of what's to come of the flurry of fed comments throughout the trading day here on cnbc yesterday >> when we look at the economy today, steve, we see imbalance imbalance between demand and supply that is putting high inflation at play. so, we still have high inflation. we saw easing in the july numbers. it remains broad based there is more work to be done. >> i'd like to see us get to say above 3.4% that was the last median in the s&p. maybe sit for a while. if the data says increase, we increase we have to get inflation under control. that is job one. >> if we act early and aggressively we will bring inflation under control quickly, but the risk is that the other side of that is not priced enough and the reality is we may have to be higher for longer >> all right with all that in mind, let's check on the bond market 10-year treasury at 3.07%. in energy, oil is above $93 a barrel that means gasoline prices are going to rise again. natural gas

this comes after jay powell's warning from jackson hole. schwab, global chief investment strategist will be here. joe biden's student bailou

with a market that is down ahead of fed chief jay powell's comments this morning, we are zeroing in onill speak at 10:00 a.m. eastern. we've got a number of guests coming to us this morning from the actual conference, to find out what the buzz is. what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? >> i'm expecting him to try to tow the line as tight as he can but he has to come can out and say that they're going to continue to be diligent about at fighting inflation. we have two down gdp quarters. we have inflation still high. i don't think it's over. there's this common expectation this will just naturally go down and we just don't buy that. so there's a word out there, i don't hear enough, that we have to start thinking about. that's stagflation. and so if powell's not careful, we're going to find ourselves in a place that we haven't seen in decades. so i do think he will be a little more hawkish than maybe what the market has thought over the last couple weeks. maria: yeah. explain stagflation for our audience, leo. because i know that that's when you've got inflation but also when you

how closely will jay powell look at the housing data as well?i think housing is clearly slowing probably the most. it is certainly part of the forecast ufocus. it was a hot housing market. it is a sensitive sector the fact they raised rates at the fastest pace since 1980s and raise rates more than where we are now. it is slowing housing. you know, i don't think it is undue concern just yet i think it is about the mandate and how much of the unemployment rate increase will the fed tolerate i don't think he will give a lot of signs about september, frankly. you have been talking about that earlier. the market is 50% priced for a 75 hike. the fed says housing matters, but so does inflation expectation. i think it is a data dependent fed without forward guidance volatility and the tension with the mandate on both ends and what they will prioritize will keep volatility high and i think the next report may be more important than jackson hole. it is all about the information going forward. >> sarah, where do we stand with liquidity? has a lot been lost

tom: fundamental is going to be that speech by jay powell -- jay powell on friday. they were reemphasizing yesterday that the priority for the fed and him has to be getting inflation back down to that 2% target. the economic data the came through from europe, but also the u.s., services, home sales looking weak. this is down .4%, across european markets and u.s. markets. the french checked out by 5/10 of a percent -- .5%. futures stateside looking around .2%. europe still below that parody level. the gains from the dollar we saw the last couple days, relaxing to some extent. king dollar, the greenback, u.s. 10 year still holding about 3% on that benchmark. brent, $100 a barrel. nominal gains there, where still -- francine: if you look at the imap, the companies are moving. we have one or two banks and financials of one or two in industrial. if you look at the one make up the stoxx 600, there gaining. the biggest is retail -- real estate. down went 6%. let's get to work bloomberg headlines managing editor. you are looking at u.s. business activity. mark: good morning

we got a hawkish jay powell and the market sold off. what was new in the statement that caused so much jitters in the market >> we had the analyst at the start of the show who said what you said there is a community of people out there who believed or wanted to believe that there was such a thing called a fed pivot in the sense that the fed were giving a reason to start cooling off on further rate hikes actually, you listen to everything he said since that moment and thatjune fmoc and h is consistent. the major focus of ours and major central banks around the world is taming that inflation beast. it is very, very difficult to keep inflation expectation anchored if investors don't feel like central banks have a hold on what is happening and regain the credibility. one part is them looking to remind the community that they will be responsible for bringing inflation rates down the question is if they believe them >> this fed faced so much criticism with the money they pumped into the economy. now they are being strict about approaching the

dollar as we lead up to this each from jay powell.uch should we read into the price action today? kit: it is still affecting risk sentiment on a day-to-day basis. the story from yesterday, maybe someone was saying that the easiest trade on the market is ahead of what is left. people saying that nothing is supposed to be easy, so it is a rallies and equity markets, but of a selloff in the dollar. tom: still the best game in town? kit: i think it is going to stay strong for a long time, not necessarily go another 10%. in terms of the price story, the price for gas, the fact that the u.s. has turned into an energy exporter, is a game changer for what this means for the dollar. but this has not spotted how bad the energy crisis is in europe and how much gas is needed for energy. tom: the euro-dollar now is driven by energy. kit: i think so this cycle because the terms of trade boost is relatively vastly bigger than anything we started with in terms of the trade sector. trading with all of these assets, this is enormous and bigger than any

just how hawkish fed chair jay powell will be. there is expectation starting to come in that perhaps investors have been underpricing moves of where the fed will go from here. in terms of equity direction, futures low for japan and australia. for the dollar, a little mixed. the yen yen is like this. we could see the dollar retesting a july high by the end of the month. let's turn to this charge. we have more than 300 companies reporting in china this week. the question is whether they hit the profit indicated in the data. in terms of direction for stocks, we have seen outperformance for chinese stocks in the second quarter versus the world index now well and truly reversing into the third quarter. we are down around 8% for chinese stocks, 12% growth. gains are like 80% for world stocks over the past couple months. in terms of where we go from here, this means that officials in beijing will have a lot of trouble to revive investors' spirits. shery: let's bring in our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays, chief north age

jay powell's speech.ng us from jackson hole is michael mckee way understand the weather is better and the view is still beautiful. what happened between now -- what happens between now and 10:00 a.m. tomorrow when the chairman speaks? michael: after we finished mopping up the rain. this blew down a bunch of trees and other stuff. there's a dinner tonight that kicks off for the host of the meeting, the president of the kansas city fed will give a short speech which is a welcome to jackson hole. then tomorrow morning we get the main event which is the keynote speech, first thing on the agenda from jay powell. after that they get into various papers that are prevented presented, this is an academic conference. the fed chairman speaking here. most of this will be theoretical and they help these guys think about things and long-run but not about policymaking. guy: you would've thought with some sort of rainstorm going on that some sort of hat would be a good idea. i'm sure you've got it covered. how abnormal i

is that something that jay powell has to address in his speech? >> i think that the focus on transitory has been important. we don't have this great flow of information. i think that the run of the federal reserve and the central bank is to ensure that shocks that can become our actually becoming temporary and the action of the fed can ensure this will happen. cracks one of the issues for jay powell and his colleagues is that marcus just don't seem to quite believe the fed is ready to do this. maybe bond yields rise but then they rally again. is it a lack of credibility? is it bad communication? will it be harder to convince people they can get the job done now? >> we are in a very unique situation. they are all coming at the same time. we have the pandemic, we have supply chains, we have food. some things the fed can do very little about. the fed wants to be assured it does not create unhealthy credibility and unhealthy stability. the fed needs to be much more ahead of the curve. i would not worry about shooting to build up credibility and reduce

we only care about jay powell. we can basically pack up and enjoy the rest of the week and turn up on friday. the market is going to do what it is going to do. it will bounce around into the speech. we don't know what he's going to say. kailey: i'm going to let you take that one up with management and let me know how it goes. michael mckee and katie greifeld , thank you. we will probably see you back here tomorrow. we will ask someone else the question of the day who happens to be working as we care for jay powell's speech. we will talk about what to expect and where the catalyst could come from with kevin gordon of charles schwab and what he will be listening for. this is bloomberg. ♪ [drone speaking] technology lets drones deliver pizza. no,no,no! have a nice day. but to deliver powerful insights that are on target you need more than technology. you need cdw. we can help transform and manage your it environment with a dell technology solution, so you can use your data to innovate. wooh pizza is here! i'm still go

. >>> jay powell pledges to get forceful about inflation all this against the broader s&p 500 pile up. hitting levels not seen since the height of the pandemic. >>> the bond market doing something for the first time since the financial crisis. >>> and futures for natural gas contracts hit the highest levels ever business owners are feeling the pain i'll tell you about it on this monday, august 29th on this "worldwide exchange. >>> good, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan maybe today we should say wherever in the galaxy because we also have cool outer space stuff coming up. it is not all bad news we have something to bring you together i i'll show you that coming up blast off with monday money. dow futures across the board u.s. dollar on the rise. nasdaq futures down 1.5% up 160 points. dow futures off 277. we are coming off what can be called a rough friday. i'm being light on that and a rough week for most stocks s&p and dow losing 3% each nasdaq losing nearly 4% all on friday alone all this as jay powe

all that in a moment, but first, rough day for the markets after fed chair jay powell warns the economys in for some real pain. tough way to end the week. katie: that's probably a good way to describe it. we finally heard from the man himself, jerome powell delivering the message saying they are going to fight inflation. that is enemy number one and they are going to get control and that even if it comes at the expense of the economy, and that went over pretty much as you would expect. the nasdaq 100 where big tech lives, off by more than 4%. don't be full by the green. that's the vix, and that went higher as volatility did as well, and the front end of the yield curve, though two-year treasury yields lifting higher as expectations rose that the fed will keep hiking rates from here. i do have a silver lining, some good news perhaps. if you look at where expectations for the fed rate at the end of 2023 has ended up, when we were at peak hawkish in his earlier in the summer, that's when you saw the s&p 500 high, so if you think about maybe that white line could move higher, maybe that wil

how can jay powell avoid becoming the second coming of arthur burns?had a devilish fed tilt for a long time. do we risk a late 1970's moment where we declare victory on inflation and then inflation soars back again about six months later? >> arthur burns said it is not monetary policy, it is something else. it was a mess. each of the emphasis of what really needs to be done. that is why they eventually made the adjustment. it was hard because of so many years. we don't want that to happen. we want to be a more stimulative, communicative indications of what the objective of the fed's. that is what is unlike arthur burns. i think jay powell has said -- i think commute getting about what used to be done is very important. >> jay powell mentioned at the last conference that the fed was neutral. i thought he must have meant long-term neutral. where do you see neutral? particularly in the near term or the medium-term. when you have a fund rates so far below, how can we call that neutral? >> sometimes it is interest rates of 1% or 3% and that sounds neutral b

it has to be a tough job for jay powell. his you go towards jackson hole, where do you think he is going to lean? is he going to lean steady or will we get more pools toward state? >> they have been preaching not to give them much freedom at all. markets are seeing financial conditions almost mutual at one stage. they are extremely concerned about inflation. they want to see if powell go through the hawkish. i think it will be hard not to go hawkish. i also think that is open to a volatile session. next week there could be another situation where there is one set of takeaways and we will have fed seekers coming out next week they could try and pick apart some of these interpretations. i think it is interesting that if you look at the move to index , that is the most elevated it has been. there are times when it has been more elevated and may be in 2009. now, we have the fed hiking rates. it is a very anxious time. hands are crossed in the markets. if they go higher or lower, it will change the calculations are all range of i

they will listen to jay powell on how far the u.s. central bank is willing to go to bring down decades high inflation the event comes with the disconnect with the markets and fed. rallying on the back of strong earnings and hopes the fed may slow pace of rate hikes to prevent the economy from tumbling into recession. markets are now pricing in a 50 basis point hike at the fed september meeting and even a possible cut next year despite comments from officials indicating otherwise cnbc will be at the jackson hole summit in wyoming. coverage begins thursday this summit comes amid a packed week of earnings and data. let's run through the highlights zoom and peloton both report this week as well as retailers macy's and nordstrom the tuesday numbers are pmi readings from august across europe and the u.s wednesday is six months since the invasion of ukraine. on thursday, the jackson hole summit kicks off friday, tension turns to jackson hole for the jay powell speech in the uk. let's see how u.s. futures are looking to kickoff the week. head

you said at the beginning can jay powell calm market fears, i think jay powell is what the market fearse market fears he will overcorrect much the way he overcorrected a year ago. to put a fine point on that, the yield curve has been inverted for weeks. that signatures that financial conditions are tight already and -- that suggests that financial conditions are tight already and perhaps he will tighten until something breaks. it's an interesting time. we'll see how it plays out. cheryl: the fed i think has been fasterrer to pivot on econ data than i've ever seen him. with all the economic data come out, new home sales, durable goods, it's a busy week. at the same time, especially when we saw the cpi data come out last time and the meeting and the speech, the first time i heard powell speak at the podium and admit that the inflation data, the cpi and ppi changed his mind. and they've never been like that before, in my opinion. >> yeah. well, you have a fed that was much behind the 8 ball for the last year or so, transitory inflation the way that they stuck to that will forever damage th

nasdaq down 2.25% following the jay powell comments.est says stick with big tech the fourth quarter will be ugly, but has ways to change it. gene muenster is here. apple and i go back as apple and you. apple held up well so far. how can you recommend it here? >> jon, it is the world's greatest company i think that distinction is something i've never given to a company. the reason i believe this can go higher at 250 the next couple years is the core products are necessity. 70% of products are necessities. i also believe they have an opportunity to get into new markets. these are things that can essentially really kick start growth they have a big problem in cupertino with growth. this is a $400 billion company tech companies are growing or dying. i think one of the key themes within cupertino is how to grow that jon, when i think about apple, i think about the strong core business and pull position with the markets of health, auto or ar any of those three can unlock significant market potential as you said, jon, you have known this compa

jay powell is going to raise rates.t we need rates to go higher, and i agree, they will go higher. but what i think the market needs to understand is that there will be alpha in the crypto asset space. and there is very good reason for that. fundamentals are absolutely increasing and improving. the technicals, if you think about the crypto market caps, they have gone down, but stablecoin have not that tells you a lot of people are just hiding and they are ready to deploy. finally, i know you guys want to talk about the merger with ethereum and that is a huge catalyst. i think it will surprise people is that zero point 75 correlation, no matter where the market goes, will go down, and that you will have some alpha in the space. sonali: you worked at tiger. darren moorehead also worked at tiger before. marking no regrets previously. how much do you need to be in touch with the macro to get the fundamentals right in crypto? is it more about the protocols or more about what is happening around the ecosystem? john: i have ha

we talk about inflation and jay powell.ark cudmore earlier last week was saying that it is the catalyst out there to put pressure on the european stocks. tom: i am down when it comes to sporting where and cutting a kind of go. there is a link there. i do not know if you are a fan. the ceo of the german sportswear maker, the surprise departure of their cfo and the good counsel. we look at adidas. francine: i wonder whether he said, enough is enough, and i need to find a new company. tom: what is behind the history, so that is adidas. iag's british airways have canceled 8% of winter flights. they are going to look past the increase in the stake, which is interesting to the stake in bt, up about 1.2%. francine: german power have sourced 700 megawatts per hour for the first time as the country panics over the dependence on the unreliable russian energy supplies. olaf scholz went to canada to try to find alternative sources of energy to end its dependence on russian gas. >> we will work hard to become independent of this gas sup

the most important part of what jay powell had to say was at the end.r one, federal reserve is responsible for dealing with inflation so while there may have been, you know, some points of too much fiscal stimulus, at this stage, who is in charge of this and jay powell clearly said this rests at the door step of the fed reserve of the cause and there may have been numerous causes. >> senator elizabeth warren and many people on the right are strange bed fellows. it is happening again here it is not easy for fed chair powell he is already talking about the pain coming. he is already very aware of the pain he is going to cause and if he is already feeling the pain, how do you stay committed to doing what's necessary when you have -- i was references senator warren she wrote the fed seized on aggressive rate hikes. high dose or big dose of the medicine at its dispoal although they are largely ineffective against inflation. you will hear that more and more when congress or certain members of congress will try to ask jay powell to ease up. >> right i think th

markets fall for a second day as wall street digests jay powell's morning. the fed's neel kashkari says it is a sign that investors are listening. intervention intention. the european union considers decoupling gas and electricity prices ahead of the emergency energy meeting in brussels. meanwhile, the u.k. chancellor tells bloomberg he is working on additional measures to help households and businesses with skyhigh energy bills. >> we know we need to do more because by december and january and into next year, those bills will probably go up further. i am preparing options for the new incoming prime minister. tom: let's check in on the markets. stabilization across the markets , again as investors digest the messaging from jay powell and the fed. there is a sense of calm. an interesting video from the office kashkari -- from neel kashkari and people were happy about the comments from jay powell. we also heard from the ecb officials, philip lane pushing back on the idea that we are going to get 75 basis points in september. the cac currently up 0.3% and the s

kathleen: the big focus is on jay powell.ionally the fed chair kicks off this two day symposium with official remarks. over the years it has become more expected of the fed chair to make a big statement. we certainly know that there is a big focus on inflation. how worried or how hawkish is the path he is going to paint? we haven't heard from jay powell on inflation since the last fed meeting, and since then, inflation numbers cooled off from a super sizzling rate to just very, very hot. we also see the perils -- payrolls numbers jumping. so it may be starting to break a bit. but we still have a strong labor market. a big question here, is powell ready to risk a recession? jay powell has said that he sees a soft landing, but he is still hoping that is possible. we have a look at the fed funds rate, clearly the fed is looking to go to a 4% by the middle of next year. markets don't seem quite onboard board. the latest person was tom barkin on friday, he said, we are committed to returning inflation to our 2%, and we will do wha

i think jay powell.'m rarely defend this man you know that charles, but i think that jay powell is actually relieved right now that he is not being pressed upon to print more money. that right now fiscal policy is on hold so that he can try to get this inflation under control. >> he might not be pressed to print more money and i agree with that but he was pressed by the president last month when he was at the oval office and pointed at him, the president said the job of bringing inflation down is to the federal reserve. so jay, go make it go away. so you could argue the question was right, does he have the tools he can do something about it? maybe, maybe not but he can't say, i can't do anything about it. the president just ordered him to. >> jay cannot create a pipeline. charles: if you're paying attention on sunday elizabeth warren wrote an op-ed in the journal essentially saying she will blame jay powell when everyone has feels pain that he was ordered to inflict upon us. >> bless her heart. charles:

that started friday after jay powell made his speech.t carried over into the asian trade last night. now we are finding there is still a lot of negativity although in the last 36 hours. j.p. morgan chase saying he has one foot on inflation and one on the banana peel. a note of caution. turning to the bond market, the selloff and treasuries -- and treasuries took the 2-year note up to a high of 3.8%. we were at 3.4% last night. traders are starting to price in recession risks. we have the dollar climbing another .5%. oil futures up to $97 a barrel. violence in libya could increase the european energy crunch. all these markets studying but we have hours to go. annabelle: that is right. the question is whether we will see reaction to jay powell's speech at jackson hole. this morning in asia, we have futures coming online looking like this. new zealand fractionally higher at the start. goldman sachs says the tightening pain is the dollar's gain. the aussie trading like this. the yen approaching the key level. let's look at the magnitude of t

that was not jay powell's business. >> right you were talking about the stimulus -- >> now it's doneast he's trying to get things coordinated. >> you've been a powell supporter -- >> are we on tv? >> we are on television, we are broadcasting. >> i feel like we're in our basement -- >> yeah. it's true. >> anyway, there's a lot of nice people here. all i'm saying is that i question the idea, david, i question the idea that powell can really do anything other than throw people out of work and the next big data point will be employment. and he needs to throw people out of work. he needs to see wages not go up. even if wages didn't go up -- >> that was a positive that continues to be a positive. now we're done we don't want wages to go up anymore? >> no. friday he laid it out. he obviously doesn't care about -- he does not care about commodity inflation. he won that battle >> right. >> he won that battle awhile ago. but he doesn't think peak inflation is upon us because wages are still going up and that's where -- he cares about my people tell me, my people, they tell me wages and rents h

markets, they seem to dread this more hawkish jay powell. maybe they just want him to get there so they don't have to keep wondering. the tough thing in this speech is he may not want and even if fed chair's are signaling some change, they may not, it's not like going to the press conference and here it spelled out, but presumably if he focuses on how high inflation is and how much they intend to move it up and keep it there, if he gets away from seeing what the long-term neutral rate and say they need to be more restrictive, when he said that, that confuse people too, and if he does not focus too much on why they need or can create a soft landing. if he starts talking soft landing, people will wonder if he's going all the way with reception to get the inflation down. maybe he will talk historically, mention paul volcker, what he had to do to get things done. it will be interesting to see, and no doubt the fed, everyone knows this is a speech, it's not like they're trying to please the markets, they want to make the message clear, and that w

then it would believe jay powell will back off a little bit.s far as the last break in last couple days, we rallied 18%. all of sudden we realized what the worst can happen? yeah, next friday, jay powell could come out against inflation. i'm not concerned about the selloff here. i think it's fine. charles: larry, what i find compelling when we get the misses on the economic data, they're not garden-variety. this number is the lowest in 27 months. they come down extremely hard, extremely fast. we feel like we know there is a lag effect with fed policy, at some point the lag effect may reveal itself. should we be concerned about that or is it too early? >> charles, americans are coming back from the summer, well-deserved summer break but coming back to reality. the real at is the economic data. the reality is seasonality. we're difficult seasonal period, september, october, periods with lot of volatility. that is focused on the economy. 3/4 of americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. that is how they view the economy, whether

jay powell really wants to see.ut could offer feedback into the monetary policy loop because the fed has assisted data dependence, watching all sorts of measures and financial conditions. the dollar being one of them. that could be very informative. guy: but we sing about u.s. corporate and the fact they were complaining about issues right now. nevertheless, are we going to get to the point where the strong dollar does damage to the u.s. economy? how far away are we from there and how does the fed react when we get there? >> very good question and i think we are not very far. especially when compared to what we are seeing in the ut and europe as well. i think the story here is that it is not just the dollar moving in a vacuum, it is that comparative strength relative to some of its key training partners. it is really hard to see any of these other currencies rival ring -- rivaling what we have seen in terms of the macroenvironment. kailey: coming up, we are inching closer to jackson hole. we will look for clues from

juliette: wait huge jay powell was going to be hawkish -- we knew jay powell was going to be hawkish. that boj and pboc is weighing into asia. the msci asia-pacific with the biggest two your drop since june. and a drop in bond markets, the aussie 10-year up by about 10 basis points. the yen could get to one point -- 140 now. and the boj with a stronger case for the on short currency showing concern about the continued weakness in the yuan, which is at a two year low, breaking through 6.9 for the first time in two years. let's have a look at what we are hearing from the bank of korea. kathleen spoke to the governor at jackson hole and they have indicated they will keep hiking, too. they won't start -- stop tightening until they see inflation peaking at about 3%. the korean won has fallen in the most in about 11 weeks. manus: it really is an asian fx collapse, relative to g10. the aussie 68.43, is going down, make sure you hedge. economists are turning more bearish on the outlook for the chinese economy, downgrading the forecast for 2022. it is now projected to grow 3.5%, down from 3.9%

instead jay powell in his much-anticipated speech here at jackson hole taking pains, taking strides to say the fed is going to be resolute in its fight against inflation, even warning, and something i've not heard from a fed chair before, the possibility that it could cause some pain to businesses and households. >> restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a stricter stance for some time. this cautions strongly about prematurely loosening policy. >> powell making a specific point about warning investors about making too much in the recent decline in inflation saying it's not enough to change the fed's course, at least not early on. >> while the lower inflation readings for july are certainly welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we're confident inflation is moving down so, we are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. >> mike, i feel like those who have listened to the fed speeches and comments that we've been reporting on the past co

like every member wanted to do except jay powell.ate hike is the only change i have seen where the market sees the fed and declining participation which makes the unemployment rate, never a real number. shows massive increases in part-time workers and actual decline of full-time workers. it looks fantastic but not just equities. the yield curve is even further. earnings are better than expected. many stocks left for dead in the ash heap of history. the bear market is staying alive. let's get right to it. a great panel to kick us off, silvio jablonski and scott martin with mahoney asset manager, but fed officials have been pistol all week, they are really upset now, because the market, it is a strong number, the fed will go crazy, 500 dow points. what is going on. does the market know something the experts don't. >> the markets going on, on the one hand we have these fears of inflation and the fed will continue rate hiking into recession. you have a hot jobs number that hells if we are in a technical recession, it is not that bad or w

decline, it's down 358, almost 59, 12,280 on the back of that very hawkish speech from fed chair jay powell we bring in our halftime headliner, tom lee is with us here now, managing partner head of research there. what was your take from powell, tom, and what does it mean for your outlook for stocks? >> powell gave tough on inflation talk it's consistent with the fed stance for all of 2022 so i don't think it should be a surprise to investors, but i think one of the takeaway staker me is the fed will respond when inflation is on a trajectory to be under control it's something the fed doesn't want to attempt to forecast and because the markets are nervous and don't have visibility, they assume it will be around for a long time. i think this is where people who are constructive on markets should focus on the drivers for accelerated inflation have essentially evaporated housing inventory levels are now at the highest almost approaching to where they were in the great financial crisis. durable goods like cars and furniture which became goods for a while as the prices rose, demand rose, they're

. >> you are starting from a lower level than jay powell.ch neutrality before other countries? >> it's very hard to tell. several principles, regarding inflation is essentially a tax, drag on economy once it's beyond a certain level. it hurts the lower income segments of society. it's imperative we bring it back to target. that is why we did the rate we did. all of these principles you saw at the recent jackson hole meeting. >> you are frontloading. you made that clear. >> it takes a while to cool down inflation. israel is in a good situation, so we expect the process of cooling down in the economy to be able to absorb that. it's going to take some time. at this time as was also mentioned, interest rates are likely to be at the higher level until we see inflation stabilizing around and inside our target range. >> you were in jackson hole last week along with many central bankers listening to jay powell's words. to what extent does the federal reserve policy guide your own, and did you stay in touch with jay powell and other central bankers a

. >> there is a lot of work for jay powell to do. >> fed chair powell saying we are close to neutral. >> every governor comes out and says something that is a contradiction. >> there is a tug-of-war from a macro standpoint. >> why quit now? >> 8.5% inflation, it looks different. jonathan: joining us now is a fantastic lineup, meghan swiber, luke hickmore and troy gayeski powell. what are you looking for? meghan: i wish we could say we were going to get a clear message from pal next week but with another cpi print to go and another payroll print to go before september, we think he will be endorsing a message of data dependence and not willing to give the market the forward guidance it needs. jonathan: luke hickmore, a quote, jackson hole might be boring, let's leave it there. luke: back from the levels that the fed would like to see. maybe he starts talking about the 1970's and the inflation we had back then. people are expecting fireworks. jonathan: troy, will we be disappointed next friday at 10:00 a.m. eastern time? troy: there will not be any shock and awe. it will be a muddled mes

i believe jay powell talked tough on friday.e things but i don't believe he will. >> i'm agreed. charles: this past saturday i had honor of delivering pa keynote speech at steamboat conference after i was interviewed by one of my favorite guests. >> the real h reality is we have serious divides and conflicts in this country but i'm curious to hear from you, charles, if you were speaking to someone who truly believes that social justice was a good thing, what would you say to them? >> it is not necessarily us versus them but it is versus the ideology that they have embraced. but if you want to get your cousin, your brother, your friends from school, you got to be armed with the facts and you got to talk to them in a way that is not you know, should be know animosity you know. there is a poll out, i think pew, about a week ago, about what the people in different parties think of each other. whoo. [laughter]. i think the most damning one was like republicans, you know, like 90% of them thought democrats were lazy. oh, man. so you k

there is this line from kashkari that he is happy to see the market essentially taking jay powell seriously. that is my read. enda: he's either saying he's unhappy to see the markets rally in july, happy to see the markets come off in response to chairman powell's speech, he warned the fed will not repeat the mistake of the 1970's when they began to ease up too soon, and he said he did not want to see them raising rates until inflation is licked. it is striking language for any fed official and it drives in how determined they are to keep ramming home this message to markets that they are not going to stop raising interest rates until inflation is well back down to within their comfort zone, closer to their mandate. we are starting to see global markets to as a realization -- too as a realization sinks in. dani: he stopped short of saying markets need to go down. enda curran, our chief economics correspondent in hong kong. china has intervened to stem its weakening currency. let's get this weight is news from juliette saly in singapore. -- let's get the latest news from juliette saly in sin

liz: kenny, do we have to wait till after jay powell speaks in wyoming on friday before we start to see some calming in this market? >> well, listen, i think it's gotten very confusing because last week we heard from five fed heads talking very, very aggressively and jay powell has been the one trying to maintain calm in the narrative; right. i think there's going to be lots of speculation up till he speaks but ultimately until we hear what he says, it he going to confirm the aggressiveness or try to, you know, calm the markets? i think we don't have a choice until you hear what he has to say because he is the fed chairs; right. >> yeah, and he's not going to say, don't worry, september i'll do 50 or worry i'm doing 75. liz: he will telegraph as we like to say. gentlemen, thank you so much. kenny, scott, always a pleasure. foams, we need to -- folks, we need to flag you about a crucial piece of e con no data coming out tomorrow, new home sales. between soaring rates and high prices are we barreling towards a full-blown housing re-.s a home builder going from order taker to financial the