when jay powell was talking and i think most traders were watching jay powell's speech, janet yellenid they are not going to be increasing deposit insurance and that's when you saw the s&p 500 fall further. it had rallied a little bit after the initial 25 basis point decision. and we also saw bank stocks, the s&p regional bank etf falling 6% after the janet yellen comments. then throughout jay powell's meaning, he was talking about how they are not planning a rate cut. a lot of traders i spoke to said it was both janet yellen and jay powell. bonds are in their own world pricing more cuts, years -- yields falling even though jay powell said we are not going to be cutting rates. >> adam touched on this earlier. the gap between janet yellen's comments and jay powell's comments when it comes to deposit insurance, how the restoration of confidence would play out. that did not go down very well. >> traders are trying to parse through how much of this banking turmoil that we have already seen, how much tightening is that already creating beyond the rate hikes the jay powell is focused on, h

i bet jay powell wishes the jobs report came before the speech this week. ey are both really important to watch clearly we are going keep an eye on whatever powell says about the speed of rate increases and the speed going forward. he is unlikely to commit in any direction. you see the creep on the committee where they may signal they will do more because the economy is so strong the jobs numbers on friday could confirm if that is accurate. we saw more than 500 million in january. >> you are the fed reporter and asking those questions one thing i want to point to here is how does the jobs report, i guess -- the gains in jobs have been in hospitality and leisure and consumer spending no other area of the economy is hit hard if we continue to see thie growth, what does that mean? >> it tells powell that vservics is hot you know, it is the fundamental economic momentum inflation is how i think of it. hot economy equals strong services i think they will take a signal and take it as a sign they have more work to do to cool the economy down if they hope to get inf

jay powell opens the door to 50 basis points. flags 6% in the european markets strike down .2%. yields are edging up with interest in the u.s. are looking up. francine: the picture is one of trying to figure out what happens with inflation. we look at the jobs data later and then unemployment in the u.s. on friday. coming up, we also look at finance in the u.k. with the chief executive officer of deutsche bank u.k.. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: good morning everett -- francine: here's what's coming up on today's program. >>

where does this put jay powell. >> this puts jay powell in a tough spot. this is provocative.e has to still go 5. charles: what is provocative? >> 25 again. he cares much more about inflation. he will live with market instability. that recovers. we know that he would rather beat inflation and win. will not be guy didn't win it. he will have to fight it back. it doesn't mean can't take opportunity of obstacles. treasury market. 3% on paper. tech stocks prevent volatility. take advantage of the what market is giving you. charles: i bought a bunch of of the bills on monday. thanks so much, i appreciate. what exactly caused this svb collapse? what can we learn from it? barry nap will talk about whether this is a lehman moment. my next guest says not to lose faith in a springtime rally. he has a lot of -- can't wait for ryan dietrick to share his optimism. he is next. [laughter]. ♪. this man needs updated covid protection. so does she. yup, these guys too. because covid is still out there, and so are you. and if your last vaccine was before september 2022, you're out there with fad

powell. host: this is from jay in connecticut on our yes line. you are next. caller: caller: i have confidence in jerome powell. it is extremely complex. people are thinking this person just makes a decision off the top of their head and that is it. it is not that easy. there is loads of behind-the-scenes conferences and people getting together with this stuff. to roam powell is raising things, lowering things with an extremely complex situation. and the other thing is, if it is not him, who else is going to do it? is there anyone else out there that confident? host: that is jay in connecticut giving us a call. we have made it simple about expressing your opinion. if you say yes, (202) 748-8000. if you say no, (202) 748-8001. and you can tell us why. one of the people expressing confidence yesterday on the show was senator mark warren. he is the chair of the senate banking committee. when asked his confidence level, here is his answer from yesterday. [video clip] >> with the fed expected to raise interest rates yet again, do you have confidence in jerome powell

>> i think it's all about what jay powell says to the house powell is, you know, driving the committeeike this one this is a large committee. if anybody's ever had to lead 18 people, you will know it's hard to get agreement here. obviously there were some different views at the last meeting. there were a few fed presidents that wanted to do 50 then. i do wonder if you would have had a sense of that, if they had done 50, you would have had discements from people who wanted to do 25. you'll get the sense of how the rest of the committee reacts to this after it felt like they had socialized the plan of raising rates 25 basis points at every meeting until you've seen some sign that you've done enough this is a reflection that if you had that data in hand at the january meeting, maybe you wouldn't have done 25 at that meeting. >> nick timiraos, thank you. it seems like they're still responding great to have you here. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," president biden's big buncht proposal and ushering higher taxes on wealthy americans. we lay out the wider net first as we head to break,

the map is not the case with jay powell.— they? the map is not the case with jay powell.th jay powell. there has been some catching up _ with jay powell. there has been some catching up to _ with jay powell. there has been some catching up to do - with jay powell. there has been some catching up to do in - some catching up to do in terms ofjay some catching up to do in terms of jay powell being accused of having been late getting inflation under control, and being in this position now perhaps what i wanted to do a 50 basis point hike in the us because inflation that is still very strong and now will be hamstrung between a hike no hike at all. we hamstrung between a hike no hike at all-— hike at all. we shall watch with interest. _ let us talk about sri lanka once again. it has an immediate lifeline. sri lanka will receive immediately $333 million as the first tranche of a near $3 billion bailout from the international monetary fund. it's been going through its worst economic crisis since independence. the bailout deal with the imf has been nearly a year in the making and

coming up next, fed chair jay powell dublin down on the hawkish path. we look at the monetary policy next. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson. the new chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the new ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. >> disconnect again between what the fed says will happen, even more so today. let's discuss it with our guest, professor of economics at t

julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european equity markets are in awaiting pattern as jay powell is giving testimony. >>> and china ratchets up the rhetoric and xi jinping is blaming the west for the country development and the diplomat says both countries could be on the verge of conflict. >> firmly oppose the cold war mentality and confrontation and acts to contain and hold back other country's development. >>> china imports and exports pull back as the country exits from covid. >>> and carlsberg trade slows as the ceo will retire by the end of the third quarter >>> warm welcome to "street signs. it is a big day in terms of monetary policy. we have jay powell kicking off the two-day testimony before congress where he will try to convince lawmakers the ability to cut inflation taking the benchmark rate between 4.5% and 5%. in the key report on friday, fed policymakers expect ongoing increases in rates wall street chiefs, however, don't feel the same as jamie dimon expect a down turn on the horizon. dimon told bloomberg a soft landing could be possible, but the fed will have more

maria: quick break markets moving jay powell heads to capitol hill for day two of testimony. what will he say now? will it be a market he mover talking abo ing about ed hyman, are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ ♪ ♪ . ♪ ♪ get $1500 purchase allowance on a 2023 cadillac xt5 and xt6. ♪ visit your local cadillac dealer today. before... & bath fitter. before.. & bath fitter. if you have a "before" bath, now's the time to call bath fitter to get a beautiful "after." with our unique tub over tub process, there's no mess or stress. spend smart on a beautiful new bath done right, backed by a lifetime warranty. join over 2 million happy customers who know: it just fits. bath fitter visit bathfitter.com to book your free consultation. ♪ ♪ maria: welcome back. futures in changed dow industrials up 3 s&p up a quarter point nasdaq up 1.back-and-forth this morning, after federal reserve chairman jay powell yesterday admitted that more rate hikes are necessary, to get back to the target range of inflation and that we could see higher rates for longer. watch. >> -- to

the focus is on the week expect to hear from jay powell.he address the gap between market pricing at 5.5% in terms of the terminal rate and the dot plot of 5.25% which was back in december. will he address that gap and open the door possibly 250 basis points, the next decision at the end of march? this is what mike wilson at morgan stanley would describe as the bear market rally. he thinks it has further to run and then pain will be felt in the medium term. dax up .1% aired broader benchmark is 464 just a gain of .1%. thanks gaining .3% as they move higher. healthcare in the green. it is very modest. about half of the sectors in the red led by technology down by .5 percent. francine? francine: jamie dimon says russia's war in ukraine is among his top concerns. he said is up to governments to consider their security priorities and policies. >> the thing i worry most about is ukraine. it is oil and gas. the leadership of the world and our relationship with china. that is much more serious than the economic vibrations we all have to deal with

but as federal reserve chair jay powell finishes up that news conference where he was pushed hard on a lot of issues, this after the fomc announced raising short-term interest rates an expected 25 basis points, powell made some extraordinarily defendtive -- definitive comments about the banking crisis, and the market response can only be sphwrieb described as many push than now pull. we do have the dow jones industrials down 0 the 8. while he was speaking, we hit a low of a loss about 271. s&p down 17, the nasdaq is losing 26 points. we've got the russell 2000 also down 26 and the transports down about 116. but let me show you some of the intradays here, because they really demonstrate how investors were absorbing and digesting each minute of the day and then, of course, later in the session. stocks opened relatively flat to the downside and then slipped further ahead of the 2 p.m. rate announcement when the largely anticipate thed 25 basis point hike officially hit the tape, the major averages initial arely surged. and you can see that right there around 2 p.m. eastern time. but hen

if jay powell goes home tonight and says, nailed it, what is that?nks for having me on this show. a win would be if jay powell can message to the markets what they intend to do and the markets actually believe them. there has been this ongoing disconnect. the fed has been very resolute, has delivered on everything they have said so far, but the markets have not believed them. i think that is going to be the challenge today as well. we think they are going to raise 25 basis points. i think the inflation picture is -- it just does not allow for a pause or stepped back right now. we also do not see any adjustment in spite of the risks from the credit side. we do not see any risks right now, immediate risk to the labor market. we think the fed should stick with the plan. guy: was the u.k. data that we saw today, exhilaration in inflation once again, do you think a warning for the fed? rubeela: absolutely, i think so. they have been talking about this for a while. you know, the sticky component, we think core goods inflation, yes, we expect to see that de

charles: all right, folks, coming up, jay powell will take the trip to capitol hill.ell you the fed chairs they loathe going to capitol hill but maybe he will have to do his best paul volcker impression just yet again. i will ask gary k. about that at 2:40. my next guest says beer can be an important economic data point. jeff joins me to break down the recession beer index. some other comments. is one of the most brilliant guys on the streets. he is up next. ♪. i count on personalized financial advice from my ameriprise advisor. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. this man needs updated covid protection. so does she. yup, these guys too. because covid is still out there, and so are you. and if your last vaccine was before september 2022, you're out there with fading protection. but an updated vaccine restores your protection. so you can keep doing you. get an updated covid vaccine and stay out there, safely. sa

a lot of times people real into what jay powell is saying.fore, i think they are onia pause. just like looney tunes.çó they say that-that-that's all. they will take a pause and sitç back and measure. the beauty of what isñr(t)jt on they don't know what to measure with. they are having a harde1 time quantifying óhrt happened. look at oil, frank. that is downi] year to date. the only sector up on the one-year look ñrback. what about tech? you were here about theq nasdaq and nvidia and tesla and lucid. >> tesla and lucid and nvidia. that is still working for us. we re-balance and reposition. yesterday was a tremendous opportunity. look at boeing. they picked up a 21 order from japanese airline. that is a big deal. when you talk about a headline name like japanese airline, boeing is an opportunity. lastly, lockheed martin. similar line. >> jeff, we have to call it a day. lookxd a i think i'm ready for this. heck ya! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know

charles: five minutes jay powell steps up to the microphone. he will face serious questions, walk delicate of tightropes. when will the fed pause? what is impact of banking crisis particularly in the policy and economy. the market is seeing 150 basis points in cuts. the dot plot sees cuts as well. bring in quill intelligence, ceo, chief strategist danielle dimartino booth. danielle, i want to get what you're saying on these projections the dot plot. i guess so far the thing has surprised me most. >> yeah. i'm 150% with you, charles. i think right now what we need to focus on is the fact that the committee members now see the terminal rate at the end of 2024 as being higher, 4.3% instead of 4.1%. even though it sounds like i'm digging in the weeds i think implication is higher for longer than the markets are anticipating. i think that is what chair powell is going to try to very vociferously communicate when he gets to the podium. yes, we're prepared to pause. we're prepared to nod to the fact that we wouldn't call it a banking crisis but obviou

the only constant jay powell is really focused on his legacy. think he wants it to read he came, he saw, crushed it like paul volcker. we have mvp chief economist joe lavorgna. joe, i have to give you props, up calling you were calling for the fed so slow down a long time ago. >> i did but there were reasons for that. charles: reasons for that. most guests were saying hey, the fed wants to break things, they want to break things and things to fall apart. we have couple bank failures. call it a qe, don't call it qe. balance sheet is going back up, people are own pins and needles. what do you make now of the notion that jay powell will still probably stay the course and go at least 25 basis points wednesday? >> on the balance sheet, the balance sheet is going up, massive discount window borrowing increases reserves like qe but they have the qt going at the same time. money is going in one area coming out of other. they have to stop the qt, that is number one. number two, i don't think they should be hiking an don't think they will. as short-term b

what do you make of the now and the task that faces jay powell. ined line of inquiry, one senator after the next making their little pitch but what they should have been asking is, chair powell, you told us back in august that you were going to have to cause pain, that it was the only way to reverse the runaway inflation and that you would have to slow growth, you would have to cause unemployment, and that would cause pain to households and businesses but it would be worth it. charles: right. >> i think the first thing they need to ask is, in the wake of decent growth reports and record low unemployment, and sustained demand, what is wrong with the model? because as we've already talked about in this session, you can go back to look at those models, the phillips curve tradeoff and we're not seeing that idea and so i'm afraid that the fed's model is collapsing into the meyer -- higher the interest rate lower inflation n is exactly wrong. charles: let me pick up on that with danielle. we have less than a minute but i want to get your final word, fina

jay powell is just starting so i suppose we will go to him. guy: we will listen in. here is a chairman. chairman powell: i am strongly in support of returning inflation to the 2% goal. we have taken actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy and have covered a lot of ground and the full effects are yet to be felt. even so we have more work to do. policy actions are guided by the dual mandate to promote implosion -- employment and price stability. without price stability we will not achieve a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all. i will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy. the data from january on employment, consumer spending, manufacturing, and inflation have partly reserved -- reversed the softening trends that we had seen a month ago. some of this reflects the unseasonably warm weather in january in much of the country, and still the breadth of the reversal along with revisions to the previous quarter suggests that inflationary pressures are running higher than expected at the time of our previous me

kicking off tomorrow is jay powell and the two-day testimony on capitol hill. this comes after friday's jobs report after the latest read on the consumer prices on the 14th. on march 22nd, the fed has the policy decision. the fed testimony and february jobs report and cpi and fmoc in 13 days. the data looking at 50 basis point hike over 25 hike in january. you see the set up here. january 6th, the probability of the moves happening has market edly so. we see the 10-year treasury at 3.9% the 30-year is 4.4.86 west texas crude is down just a bit compared to the end of last week in crypto, bitcoin and ethereum trying to find more upside traction they are not getting it this morning. bitcoin is flat. still be lose 23,000 .25% decline for ethereum. >>> let's get a check of the trade in europe with julianna tatelbaum who is standing by in the london newsroom with the latest good morning, julianna >> good morning, dom here in europe, investors are paying attention to the headlines in china the 5% growth target for the year which some said was disappointing relative to

jay powell said they are not making decisions jobs report tomorrow and cpi next week.t know? can we take him at his word or is the market doubting the 50 basis point hike will happen no matter what? >> i think we need to take him at his word. through the process starting almost 18 months ago, the fed has been painfully clear in the path forward they held true to the path with the 75 basis point moves and slowing as we have gotten on we are closer to the end athan the start. there is a hope of the fed pivot, but jay powell has to reemphasize the fact that inflation is first and foremost the primary focus. he is being clear. i think equities are continuing to look for the hope we will get the pivot. in reality, inflation is showing no signs of slowing down particularly with how tight the labor market is. that is the decision here. >> we see the worst earnings season since great financial crisis a lot of investors are turning to bonds and two-year note the top has crossed to 5% yield. what is your take on the inv investability of equities? >> you are asking the equity guy

certainly the janet yellen, jay powell split screen that caused concern and angst. janet yellen suggested there was no discussion around guaranteeing deposits putting her at odds with the signaling from jay powell. in little bit more relief coming through as u.s. investors away up those mixed messages. yields coming up about 23 basis points at the front end. that's deepening of the yield curve continues. the pound and focus as we lead up to the bank of england. strength coming through for sterling. the bank expected to hike. that is the shape of things across these assets. let's get back to the fed. hiking by 25 basis points jerome powell signaling may be more in store. >> if we need to raise rates higher, we will. for now, as i've mentioned, we see the likelihood of credit tightening. we know that that can have an effect on macroeconomy. we are going to be watching to see what that is. tom: in a senate hearing at the same time, janet yellen said regulators are not looking to provide like it insurance for u.s. savers. >> it was not considered or discussed anything h

the fabulous image of jay powell poised on top of a hawk.t is available in the bloomberg anywhere app. this is bloomberg. ♪ what does it mean to be ever better? its your customers getting what they ordered when they expect it. discover how ryder ecommerce makes your customer's experience ever better. shery:shery: now to the latest on silvergate. the bank has been in talks with u.s. regulators to find a way to salvage the business. su keenan has more. is there a way of this -- a way out of this financial turmoil? >> it looks like there may be some kind of rescue plan at least available to the bank. sources are telling bloomberg's that regulators from the fdic have been on the scene at the la jolla headquarters of the crypto from the bank since last week. officials have been discussing with management we are told ways to avoid a shutdown and one possible option may involve lining up crypto industry investors to help silvergate shore up its liquidity. the fact we are hearing the fdic is on the scene could be the latest sign of urgency. last wee

the big event tomorrow is the first day of testimony from jay powell on capitol hill. i think he is going to set the tone for the week. wednesday, the jolts data. it is going to be really interesting to see what happens. inflation on thursday from china. we have the biden budget coming up. we get to a couple of key events you will not want to ignore. the primos number is what you will want to watch out for -- payrolls number is what you will want to watch out for. a huge we coming up. after a significant lack of clarity, that brings us to our question of the day. is this going to be the biggest week of the year? are we going to finally get some clarity that it is going to allow us to deliver some certainty in terms of some of the investments that are being made right now. let's debate that right now. joining me on set. we have china already. we have obviously a cautious attempts of a growth target. we have a huge week coming up this week. how important is that chinese decision going to be for the global economy and what else are you watching? >> i am on coffee all day

what matters isn't whether jay powell gives us a quarter point hike next week or no hike at all. i think we'll be fine either way. eight days ago we thought powell was going to hit us with 50 basis points because inflation refuses to be beaten now we know he doesn't have to do anything to beat inflation, those bank runs will do it for him. for real the job is done. we just need to watch it play out. sure the bulls didn't get it the way they wanted it with a soft landing and a gradual reduction in all prices but they got what they needed, with a stunning flameout of the first national bank of wretched excess and a few banks more bottom line, we got what we need and now glorious we no longer need to worry that jay powell's going to have to blow a 50 basis-point fuse let's go to trey in texas. trey >> caller: jim, i bailed on another penny stock today at a substantial loss i don't know what it is, but it seems like every one of these companies turns out to be terribly managed anyways, as you might imagine, i'm looking for a real thoroughbred to get me back in the winner's lane and i

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jay powell has spoken and now the market reacts. bostick along with scarlet fu kicking you off to the close. scarlet: that is a lot of red on the screen. sending the market a reality check again. romaine: again. we have been here so many times before. the most optimistic scenarios and jay powell has to say, i said what i said last

dani: amazing to see people texting in the background, like jay powell is not rocking markets right inront of him. that was jerome powell warning that the fomc may raise rates higher and faster than previously expected. let's get to maria fight mana, senior multi-asset strategist at state street. what we didn't get from powell yesterday is him saying the disinflation process had begun, we did not get him saying a fall in inflation was gratifying, welcome or encouraging, all things he said on february 1. why change his tone at this congressional testimony have not earlier in the month, why? marija: good morning, dani. that's exactly the question i have been asking myself since the beginning of the year. we at state street have the privilege to observe online inflation data in real-time, as it has been strong since the beginning of the year. inflation is still there, prices are sticky, consumer spending, so for us it has been quite in inflation every period. being bearish on the market was painful, now it is a little gratification for us. the economy is still strong, and indeed, what cha

mixed messages from the fed chair jay powell. the markets are looking at 40 basis at least come march 22. you are out front last year in calling for higher rates. what is your assessment of the terminal rate? raffaella: good morning. the tone is mixed because data dependency at this juncture i think it makes sense. i also the fed like most central banks is not yet clear on how to handle the long-term structural trends that impact the labor market and the inflation. our current guidance is the peak rate will be 550 but we have been signaling since last fall that 650 is completely possible. the difference between the two is what the fed decides to do with the housing market. at 550 which is what we observe currently, the housing market is weak in volume but still high in prices. it is inflationary. if you want to go to 650, what you are doing is shock it and that will trigger a price correction already. now gives you an immediate relief on inflation. it causes problems from 2024 onwards but it is a personal preference of the fed. t

also today it's day one of jay powell's testimony. he's likely to keep raising rates, but the army of fed watchers has no clue how high he raises them or for how long. he speaks in one hour. now, in advance of that, not that much change for stock prices, as you might imagine. the dow is down all of 5 points, s&p up 1 points, nasdaq is up 11. as for the 10-year treasury yield, well, we're down a little bit to if.9 -- 3.93. as for the 2-year, that's also down a little bit at 4.87. that may all change by the close of trading today. politics. the white house is considering a reversal on border policy. "the new york times" says biden may consider reinstating detention the of migrant families. that would mean a return to trump's policy. biden's desperate. he knows his border policy has been a disaster, and there is an election coming next year. 23 people arrested and charged with domestic terrorism in atlanta, georgia. only two of them are from georgia. a fund has been set up to bail them out. which democrats will contribute? this is a it's

edward jones >>> good morning fed chair jay powell with this latest hawkish message to senators >> it'say well be higher than we were at the summer. >> today is take two powell will address the house financial services committee we'll ask judy shelton about the message to the markets ahead of that, let's go to an interview with house democratic leader whakeem jeffries. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now >>> good morning welcome back to squawk box right here on cnbc we are live from the market site in times square. andrew is off today. right now there are some green arrows the dow just turned negative, indi indicated down 5 points after tough comments from jay powell when it looks like they're going to raise rates higher and faster than anyone anticipated. if you've been watching the treasury market, yields have pushed up pretty significantly yesterday. in fact, the two-year note today is above 5%. the ten-year is is at 3.96 president biden is set to unveil his 2024 budget proposal tomorrow topping the list, tax increases on high-income americans joining us for more is hakeem je

jay powell did just say inflation extremely high.rom the department of justice and doj sued to block the jetblue spirit airline merger at $3- $3.8 billion tieup with 10% market share. if that gets blocked and doj wins that lawsuit, there's more business for others and more business to go around and united up grated at b and p and upgrade at ever core and worth $47 in their view and i've been watching the jay powell senate testimony, that's been very interesting by the way. interesting back and forth with senator elizabeth warren, also senator kennedy as well. there's a tech rally taking place and that's counter intuitive than with jay powell and rates going up higher and faster and markets lessing a full half point hike this month, that's 50 more basis points and that usually hurts growth companies that are priced on the future earnings and dock ewe u s and more and if rates go up, that makes future earnings look less and the stocks usually fall. why do you think they're up two and a third percent and largely unprofitable tech compan

kicking it off with fed chair jay powell, set to testify before congress today. onomists and markets will be watching for commentary on how high rates can go in the u.s. let's bring in michelle. what might we get from powell today? michelle: real must-see tv. we had the usual string of fed speak last week into the weekend which helped rally the markets last friday as they felt like they understood where the policy is going. powell could throw that all four rate whirle. number one, we have to watch what he will say for inflation. we are expecting a hawkish tone, the inflation fight not being overpaid we heard them say that many times over, but we expect to hear that message again. powell will have to square this summer outlook with high inflation, tight labor markets. he's really going to have to come out with this message of tighter for longer. that could jolt markets a little bit. now, the other thing we would warn is that bloomberg u.s. chief economist and along said they may have to go more hawkish, talk about being restrictive into next year. a lot of areas th

after the sentiment from jay powell.fed is ready to speed up the pace of the monetary policy tightening. if inflation does remain sticky as it is. ahead, we have an adp employment report. yvonne: we are watching where the treasury market is, the inversion is looking scary, when it comes to how stock investors are looking at this. let's cape cod up with the latest business flash headlines. shares jumped war than 20% after the singapore tech giant delivered its quarterly profit earning $.72 a share on revenue of $3.54 billion. analysts had expected the company to report a loss of $.64 a share. the ceo attributes the bottom line to efficiency and profitability efforts. elon musk is seeing brighter prospects for twitter, he expects the company to breakeven on a cash flow basis in the second quarter, or go positive. musk told the conference how he was startled how little money the company receives. he knows the cost of servicing twitters that is around $1.5 billion annually. intel is seeking more subsidies from the german gov

but jay powell in my world is right.e is using the tools available to him to bring inflation down and if we don't act now, the people senator warren claims to support will get even worse off than they are now. see, if you can take a swipe at the socialists, there's nothing boring about the fed. second harper lanes of varney just getting started. ♪ stuart: all right, liz peek with us this wednesday morning. i say, it's the run away government spending that's getting us into this inflation mess. warren is wrong. what say you? >> i think there's no question about that. we know that's -- if you track the influx of federal spending on top of what was already a hot, fast recovering economy, stuart, that's what guided inflation. you can track it and it's very obvious what happened. democrats need a scapegoat because they're responsible for the surge in inflation, and because they pretend to care about middle class voters and middle class americans. the st. louis fed last year, i think it was, said that they have suffered the wo

losses today, jay powell hinted that he hoped that they be modest, that they be light maybe. right now, the fed is only modeling for a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment. i suppose in hopes that people coming back into the labor force will keep that down, participation but that also means recession and it also means take a look at this chart, that once people start losing their jobs in mass, more than likely it won't stop at 1%. its only stopped at 1% once. only one-time. but here is the thing. i blame congress. not the fed. congress should demand that the fed create better tools, and of course, they should stop making their job harder. the spending is absolutely nuts so president biden wants to spend $1.6 billion to find out what happened to the ppp money. i'll tell you. it was stolen. stop spending our money. cheryl, that's how i feel. >> cheryl: we've talked about this in the morning charles all that stimulus spending led to inflation and that was jay powell's big word today, and here we go with the market down almost 600 points. there you go. right? we'll be doin

i feel like the notion -- jay powell?n of being able to look at at an income statement, even adding a little technical analysis, that that's not enough anymore. >> what i said on wednesday with neil cavuto was right now everybody seems to be about the fed, the fed, the fed. oh, no, it's not the fed. inflation, inflation, inflation, it's not about inflation. interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, no it's about the fed. welsh think about it, because i don't think most people do. the fact is, forgetting everything i've ever said about the fed before and i'm normally a fed critic, the thing the fed hates more than inflation is bank failures. and this week is a wake-up call to the fed to think about kind of in the ve narc lahr of carrie underwood's hit song, i don't even know his last name. it started off, hey, cutie, what's your name, and it turned into, oh, no, what have i done? charles: you go from sir john templeton to carrie -- [laughter] that's amazing. i'm impressed. more so with the things you know about the m

all we talk about is what jay powell had for lunch.ion, two more for you, back to what you just said, give us an example of a niche that kind of fits that right now? >> you know, again, i want to hesitate to going away from sectors. we can talk about about a couple seeing opportunities there are bigger things to focus on. when you look down cap that is an area that has been left out in the cold for a good you know, segment of time. why is that? it is because again investors have gone more focused on indexes which were larger cap focused. also there were fundamental reasons. the largest companies were growing at a fast rate. you know, 16, 17, 18% growth for the top five to seven companies, that has been cut in half and so when you look at the growth rate potential it's now coming down cap. charles: smaller caps. >> as the economy, yeah, as the economy slows, those smaller, medium-sized companies are going to have a better opportunity to grow going forward. so we're looking down cap. that is one area. charles: i want to change the, befor

jay powell did walk back some of his more hawkish commentary on the day prior. in terms of reaction we are seeing an aussie stocks, we are still trading lower. we did see the wall street session rising a little bit into the end of the day's trading but still when you look at trading volumes, they were off their 20 day moving averages across the board. that tells us the level of uncertainty that is coming through in the market. in terms of the aussie dollar, that is trading flat but we do have chinese inflation data adding to the risks on the horizon. looking at what we are seeing across the rest of the region, there is still banks coming out to recalibrate where they think the fed funds rate will end up. that is putting a lot of pressure on asset including currencies. we are seeing the japanese yen rising above the 200 day moving average for the first time since december. a lot of focus on that rate differential between the boj and the fed. shery: let's assess what was said because a somewhat different tone from jay powell was perceived by the markets. this was

tom: stock futures wobble as jay powell looks to balance fighting inflation against the banking crisis. treasury yields are lower. ubs said to be unwinding. the swiss lender offers to buy back bonds sold. plus u.k. inflation unexpectedly accelerates likely seeing the deal on a boe rate hike tomorrow. we are in frankford live to hear christine lagarde's closely watched address. francine: let's look at the futures now. they started higher. looking at some of the futures here. certainly when it comes to the ftse a bit of -- they have to choose between the banking crisis. tom: traders the most uncertain leading up to this fed decision since the start of this tightening cycle. what will we see in terms of revisions. expecting this forecasts to be changed since december when the highest rate was put at 5.1%. given the balance they now face in terms of price stability and financial stability. we will hear it from the ecb later today. here's how things are opening. you saw a very -- gains in asia. that cpi inflation rising for the first time in four months really raising the pressure on the bo

traders are also watching fed chair jay powell's congress testimony on tuesday.et's get more from our mliv contributor garfield reynolds. one of the reactions, as steve mentioned, is that it will be a fall. how are markets going to interpret that report? garfield: the biggest problem for markets is the upside of growth later on. that does not help them right now. there were strong expectations going in that there would be a more aggressive approach, what might be seen as a more markets-friendly approach. instead you have got this measured set up. you don't have much in the way of stimulus coming. you also have the increase in defense spending that emphasizes both how strongly everything is being placed on the control of the current regime. it also emphasizes the potential for tensions with the u.s.. so none of that looks particularly promising for market that had gotten very excited about china very quickly with that data surprise last week which ended up setting up the npc precisely to take a more measured approach, a lasting literary one, because the economy is

maria: we will take a short break when we come back jay powell on the hill kicking off two-day testimony today in front of senate banking committee talking with thomas hoenig what he is expecting to hear from powell how it may move markets. stay with us. he is coming. ♪ ♪ take us out -- we can dance on it, slow summit, as far as i can tell ♪ ain't got to -- coming on ♪ ♪ research shows people remember ads with a catchy song. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's a little number you'll never forget. did you know that liberty mutual custo— ♪ liberty mutual. ♪ ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ ♪ custom home insurance created for you all. ♪ ♪ now the song is done ♪ ♪ back to living in your wall. ♪ they're just gonna live in there? ♪ yes. ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ ♪ ♪ to all the chevy silverado owners out there. the adventurers and the doers. to everyone that works hard and plays hard. whether it's your first silverado or your tenth. thank you for making chevy silverado the #

wednesday, what do you want to ask jay powell what will be the focus? . >> i think, that the chairman has been dealt a very tough set of cards here maria. trying to bring inflation down, that is his charter but trying to do that in face of massive spending that joe biden and democrats have put into the system going on two years he overheated the skepticism with massive stimulus spending very interested to see perspective on what might be done in terms of the spending in pipeline yet to be spent that is more inflation ahead he has to fight is there anything that we can do to federal spending problem that is making it so difficult for him? i am deeply worried he has to put private economy into recession to accommodate massive federal spending underway. maria: s a great point. how are you going to stop of reckless spending as we smaek president biden is trying to get his student loan to proveness through we spoke about appropriations process jim jordan joined me yesterday stephen miller on "sunday morning futures" they said only thing house has is power of

jay powell is on day two of testimony. will he revisit after yesterday course double down and say we have no idea what's going on today we also get a bank of canada rate decision this is interesting because they signaled a divergence from the u.s. possibly a pause in they rate hiking cycle what does that do to the currencies of next that want to move back from some of the rate hiking cycle they are in if the u.s. is going as quickly as jay powell hinted at does adp matter? we are in this new moment of data dependence that's going to be really interesting do we get an ongoing reject celebration? that see data difficult to parse through the accuracy and the market will trade on each of these data points because nobody else has a better guide. jonathan: payroll on friday. here is the chairman of the federal reserve. >> the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected. nothing about the data suggests we tightened too much. we have more work to do we are very far from our price stability mandate. the ultimate level

powell. host: this is from jay in connecticut on our yes line. you are next. caller: caller: i have confidence in jerome powell. it is extremely complex. people are thinking this person just makes a decision off the top of their head and that is it. it is not that easy. there is loads of behind-the-scenes conferences and people getting together with this stuff. to roam powell is raising things, lowering things with an extremely complex situation. and the other thing is, if it is not him, who else is going to do it? is there anyone else out there that confident? host: that is jay in connecticut giving us a call. we have made it simple about expressing your opinion. if you say yes, (202) 748-8000. if you say no, (202) 748-8001. and you can tell us why. one of the people expressing confidence yesterday on the show was senator mark warren. he is the chair of the senate banking committee. when asked his confidence level, here is his answer from yesterday. [video clip] >> with the fed expected to raise interest rates yet again, do you have confidence in jerome powell

i don't want to be jay powell. you have to look at high inflation now and rates moving higher and likely to stay higher for longer, plus the potential of recession, which means lower earnings growth. that makes investing challenging. we look at our clients and particularly the ones looking to be in retirement and need the cash flow. we have several higher income strategies that mix together fixed income and equities. equities can do a lot that bonds cannot do in this environment. >> right we know about the yield curve and how it can forecast a slowdown or recession. if the inversion gets higher and now over 100 basis points. the highest since 1981, does the size of the inversion give an accurate forecast over how deep the recession is if you have to raises higher because the economy is so strong, then it doesn't -- it seems like that could be a good thing that you can raise rates a little and tackle the inflation and maybe the economy survives >> there are several things going on one of which makes it difficult to

traders will be watching for fed chair jay powell's testimony on tuesday. and we have the unveiling of the premeasured growth target from china. let's get garfield reynolds. what is the bigger driving force for you this week? garfield: the fed is the ultimate driving force and has been for some time because of the impacts yields have on other bond markets, but also the equity setup. and in asia, what is going on with the u.s. dollar. the ultimate message from markets last week was that even in the face of some very, very strong moves higher in yields, some of them back above 4% for all treasury yields, that pivot narrative is not dead, it has simply been delayed a bit. we saw the way bonds came roaring back. the way equities came roaring back. we also saw the way the u.s. dollar ended up lower, which has sort of defied the expectations that the moves to price in a higher fed rate and a higher treasury yield for longer would support the dollar. instead, the dollar came off. so there is still the expectation that even if the fed is going to bring back one or

to the markets, jay powell has begun his testimony on capitol hill. a few moments ago he said of the data suggests we would increase the pace of rate hikes, that's what he said and that is why the dow is close to 200 points. our market watcher of the morning, good luck. very tough to analyze this market in the middle of a fed testimony, but what do you expect to come out of this? >> if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bs. that is what jay powell is going to do. we are going to deal with volatility until we get the data. of congressional testimony is not a platform of the fed to change or pepper their poverty. it's about political grandstanding from politicians, the fed to reiterate what they said, saying it is data dependent. if job growth is as strong as it was in january and we have strong uppers, employment is superlow, the fed will keep hiking rates which we've been talking about for two months, people need to reset expectations widgets not wanted to more hikes, probably a 50 basis point, if inflation keeps going, 3 or 4, ra

. >> my view on jay powell is well known at this point.had two jobs. one is to deal with monetary policy one is to deal with regulation he has failed at both. >> would you advise president biden to replace him >> look, i don't think he should be chairman of the federal reserve. i have said it as publicly as i know how to say it i said it to everyone. >> senator warren accused the congress and fed of working together to weaken financial regulations. there is something for everyone here there are other people that would say and andrew, i know, we disagree on this the fed and congress work together to really ignite the inflation that the fed is trying to deal with right now at least that is one viewpoint >> i don't disagree with that. no question they created a lot of the challenge >> she was parcel to everyone of those bills that extended -- there was a pandemic and a lot of emergency relief that the fed was forced to do if you look at the piece kevin's piece in the journal and this is what druk ckenmiller was saying. it is weird. jay powell

chair jay powell heads to capitol hill tomorrow.e looking at china and figuring out what to do next. mark: the message from china to the markets it will not be a flood of stimulus this year. they set himself a modest growth target of around 5%. it was 3% last year and they missed it. they don't want to miss it again. across the benchmark in europe against a .2% after weekly gains that closed out friday last week or the dax adding .2%. lightly different picture in the u.k.. ftse 100 down by one point. they are tying into the story around china expectations that with less stimulus there is lightly to be less demand for iron ore and oil. let's see how things play out across the sectors. travel and leisure was near the top near point 6%. energy fairly well again of .4%. six sectors in the red so far this morning around eight: 31 on this monday morning. basic resources down 1.6 percent firmly tied it to the china story. when it comes to the fed we are looking out for jay powell's testimony tomorrow. markets pricing a terminal rate of 5.4