jay powell didn't give us any hints of what he's going to do next. do you think the fed would be open to that? >> i think they are trying to do as little as they have to. to get inflation down. i'm just going on past data come on the record of the number of times inflation has been this high or higher and the fed has acted to get inflation down. when it has done so, is had to raise the real rate to above 2%. right now, the real rate is between 1.5% and 1% depending on how you measure it. i think the fed will try to escape by and have the real federal funds rate rise due to declining inflation in the second half of the year rather than raise the nominal federal funds rate and get it over with. it wouldn't surprise me if they do one more hike this year, maybe two if inflation rises back up again. they might pause here, they might stand pat here if the next couple of data releases are favorable. >> what's the risk in that? is that not the prudent thing to do if you see the data still not definitive maybe inflation isn't coming down that much but it's no

so, jay powell, jerome powell, who is he? where did he come from? for people who only heard of him a few years ago when he became fed chair. tell us about his background. he ended up in the position he's in. yeah. so jerome powell is a local he's from this area. he grew up and grew up in georgetown or chevy chase, and he was the child of a fairly family in the area. they were catholic. he went to georgetown and he went to the same school that brett kavanaugh went to. actually, he went private here. he went to georgetown afterwards. he went to princeton. then he went to georgetown for law school lawyer, worked in sort of law for a little bit, but then kind of made the jump to finance. spent a lot of his career in finance worked in private equity for a while and of flit in between the private and public sector for much of its career. so we saw him working at treasury sort of in the domestic finance arms. we saw him working at the fed a governor before he became chair and tell real quickly the story of how he ended becoming a fed governor, because that

but first getting set for the fed and why jay powell's track record with traders is far from ideal. >>> plus, showing investors how to think outside of the box. our weeklong look at ideas as it continues with some red-hot real estate players. >> and later what a tentative teamsters/u.p.s. deal would mean for labor costs and the economy. we have a very busy day ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. (vo) it's time to switch to verizon. sadie did. and now she has myplan. what will you create? the first unlimited plan that lets her choose exactly what goes in it. now she gets to pick only the perks she wants and saves on every one. and with an incredible new iphone on us, no wonder sadie is

how do you see the rest of the day playing out and the hike and jay powell not closing the door to anothere strong today because what powell said is we're going to be data dependent and that means we're not just going to go ford like we did at times when he said we would be raising so the market is saying, hey, if we can price in and discount the levels we're at today, then we can actually see where we want to be the uncertainty taken out provides a good foundation for the market and, frank, it's going to be earnings none of these companies will do well unless you have strong earnings and google and meta did very well. if you actually do not provide the earnings the street is looking for your stock will get hurt >> mcdonald's coming up. big day, i think it's the busiest day, sarat, a lot to watch. always great to see you. >> absolutely, thank you >>> all right, that's going to do it for us on "worldwide exchange." we got "squawk box" coming up next thanks for being here. ( ♪ ♪ ) don't cha wish your phone was fun like this? ( ♪ ♪ ) don't cha wish your phone looked more like this? don't cha

go back to jay powell. see what he is saying now. >> reporter: give to factors that don't stem directly with rate hikes or would that be in your control at all like easing supply chains and a drop in energy prices over the past year? >> yeah. so interesting question. let me start by saying the inflation surge we saw in the pandemic resulted from a collision of elevated demand and constrained supply both of which followed from the unprecedented features of the pandemic and the response from fiscal and monetary policy. we always expected disinflationary process would stem from both the normalization of those broad pandemic related supply and demand conditions and from restrictive monetary policy which would help return the balloons between supply and demand by restraining demand. that is what we think we're prodly seeing. to break it down a little further of course headline inflation has come down sharply from elevated levels as energy and food prices come down mostly reversal of effects of war in ukraine. th

and the question is how much can jay powell lean into the optimism.od it was only one month. we can have two more months before the september meeting in the economy has been more resilient than the fed is anticipated. even though inflation has been slowing down and that could make it harder for the fed and powell to firm up expectations of a second rate increase that officials have projected at the june meeting. growth as a road today has probably been too strong for powell to validate expectations that the market has that this will be the last hike. maria: it's interesting to write about christopher waller back in july that he wanted to see evidence that the inflation slowdown was not a fluke. it's interesting that they would even say that this can be a fluke it's come down to 9.1%. >> 's come from nine to 3% on headline but that was largely energy. if you look at core inflation the optimism is going to continue to come down because housing rent is slowing in used car prices which contributed tremendously to higher inflation are finally declining. we

what are you listening out for in terms of clues from jay powell?>> this is all about nuance, his demeanor, how he answers questions in the una. we don't get any updated forecast from the fed at this meeting there is no dot plot no updated inflation or growth forecast, it's all going to be about nuance. we know he will go for the 25 basis point hike today, but is there going to be any hint that that soft cpi print we got last week changes his conviction on this u.s. economy needing a further hike come fall? and does he change his language, his characterization of the labor market he has described this labor market as robust for nearly a year. it does he start to change that language, maybe start to concede the labor market has moderated, all of us will be hinging on his words and the q&a on how he answers those questions. >> we get more jobs and inflation data before the next decision which is ages away so by then this press conference might not seem so significance. >> that's right we get to see and to and if he's before they meet again he is proba

expected to raise interest rates a quarter point resuming tightening phase after a pause in june jay powell touted resilient spending to keep up he effort to tame inflation the chairman of the fed yesterday. >> we can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute as we let this unfold we think we are going to need to hold certainly homed policy at arriving restrictive levels simes prepared to raise further if appropriate. maria: joining me chairman ceo of bank of america brian moynihan with reaction, great to see you now good to see you now thank you so much for being here off the very strong quarter at boo i want to talk about that your reaction to tightening phase. fed has to win the battle on inflation they started late in admission, now, added will take holding rates that is what is clear so our prediction is they will cause a slight recession first part next er year, the first rate cut the middle next year, the recession predictions keeps moving out power of the consumer american economy good businesses doing good things outstanding people walk down 6th avenue, tourists in town ke

we'll here from jay powell and company. we want to know what the heck they were thinking when we get the fomc minutes. remember they finally stopped hiking rates. people aren't sure because everyone please they will continue to hike rates. meanwhile we share lessons we learned thus far as investors embark on the second half of the year. the first half has blown away everyone's expectations. meanwhile the constitution versus joe biden. the last week has been absolutely phenomenal. the constitution staging an amazing comeback. i will talk to rebecca walser about that also i break down the latest evidence of planned theft. i'm telling you, be careful. the ipo market will heat up again. remember the bird scooters? of course you did. they are everywhere. couldn't help but trip on one. aided and abetted by media investors lost a fort fun. we'll have a cautionary tale how you keep your money. forget about being happy or sad, foal, if you were tasked with inventing a new human emotion what would be? go to my twitter cvpayne, includ

if the committee is led by jay powell, who says we should raise rates this time, those who are more dovish will probably go along and we will not see any dissents. you will hear about it in their speeches after this meeting. sonali: we are looking forward to your coverage. we are bringing in simon freakley with alixpartners. they have advised many partners as well as high-profile restructuring. the reason for these rates are due to higher inflation, potentially sticky inflation. when you speak to ceos, how much is inflation pinching margins? simon: inflation is probably top of everybody's agenda. they are focused on how to thrive in an inflationary environment, it is tough. sonali: how much of is coming from the wage picture, and you expect more upward pressure? simon: it is like a layer cake, every layer is a problem in itself. while wage inflation is an issue, material inflation is an issue. the talent market is still a very tight, the skills market is even tighter. to get critical skills to pivot business models, particularly in a digital era, is becoming a real challenge. sonali: this

transitory debacle appearing before the select subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis in june of 2021, jay powell and they would abate and inflation would drop back toward the fed with long range goal with 2%. powell was following lead of predecessor for the fed and current treasury of secretary fed and by the way on may of 2021 she doubted inflationary cycles and incidentally secretary yellen mentioned there was no recession and makes me worried there would be a great regret of the fed and kept inflation too low. we'll talk about that at a different time and of course the term transitory, transitory inflation which is denied for the fibbers or folks that don't have the answers and think about this, it means temporary high inflation rate followed by period of low inflation. all right, there's no timetable there. so not so ironically, i'm already seeing in a financial print; right. some folks are pro fed, pro powell are saying that maybe jay powell got it right after all. listen, it's too late for that. for a number of reasons including the fact that jay powell himself gave ultimately the ghost an

it comes down to timing for jay powell.ou have to wonder if this is a right time for him to take a victory lap. ppi following the cpi, better than expected. are we almost there? bring in lonski group president john lonski. john, you don't have to be a chartist or an expert golly these things are coming down fast. is it coming down fast enough for the fed to take notice? >> i think it is safe to say inflation has peaked. charles: not get back up there. >> inflation is largely the consequence of what is now commodity price deflation on a year-to-year basis. the ppi's commodity segment was down 4.4% from a year ago. that helps explain why the ppi overall, up by only .1 by 1%. services up 2.3%? this is a different world. charles: irony here is that the service part is where we get all the stickiness from. that, we're starting to see cracks in that as well. >> yeah, we are and in large part this is because we've seen a peaking of wage inflation. that's come down from its high. the own sri worry i would have on the inflation fron

jay powell is going to want to push back on that.otherwise they tread lightly, what is the chance that friday is more exciting than today with cpi data? mike: it could be. you saw the chart abigail was showing. pca numbers have not gone down as far as cpi. they are constructed slightly differently. the fed looks at sea the they want to see progress. if we do not get that, maybe the fed has to do more. if pc comes down the way cpi did , you have people talking about the possibility that the fed is done. before we get to the next meeting in september, we have got several different reports that could be an influence. but for now, friday is going to beat maybe even more informational than today. dani: i do not think this helped me at all with my conviction that today's going to be worn. kailey: you know what never is boring is chairman powell trying to answer mike's question. he always stops him. that is what i look forward to every single fed day. dani: mike, thank you for joining us. coming up, we turn to tech. rebecca lynn will be joi

on wednesday fed chair jay powell will announce rate it is asking fully pricing in 25 basis points hikearch two fwo after fed paused cycle in june all this as inflation is cooling, price up 3% annually, that is slowest in nearly two years is it enough? joining me now former atlanta federal reserve president ceo, sam nunn school international affairs dennis lockhart how are you -- >> very good. >> always great to talk to you on reports i cover on show as far as fed what do you think is biggest takeaway that we need to have this week from the fed meeting of course, the presser after? >> i think big takeaway will be whatever we get from jay powell's press conference of the path of policy for the coming months, they signaled in june that likely to be two more one would be wednesday another rate hike sometime in the fall. then possibly a long term pause. so any indication we can get of the thinking of the committee forward would be help. >> big question here because we've had several guests one this morning saying she believes we are heading into recession, that recession could be in the fal

to jay powell's liking but we are getting there. to get the consumer price index report everyone has been waiting when is getting into the low threes and high twos and if we climb this month what we've been climbing on average this year you will be on the low threes. that is good news, core remains too high but a lot of that is shelter. if you look at other indicators such as the home price index or what's going on in the rental market they are coming down. cpi shelter usually lags by ten months, 12 months. you will see that come down as well. we are getting close, the bond market is telling you at least in the breakeven's, we are getting closer to the end of the tightening cycle. >> that is the good news, the bad news while we will escape recession in the near-term it is a business cycle so you do see a recession eventually. >> all business cycles and they don't have to be as catastrophic as of last two recessions 2020 and 0 eight. when the recency bias that they're all disastrous and policymakers need to comment was substantial su

>> i think it's harder than jay powell job. i believe christine lagarde would want to do what jay powell did. what's turning in the background is more concerning than what we see in the u.s. we are debating whether or not recession is imminent here. we've seen economies that have a technical recession in the u.k., the lending environment is type from a borrowing and investing perspective. lisa: which is a reason for the whipsaw action on the euro given that you might see higher rates but it's slower growth. where do you weigh in on the bouncing around we've seen of the euro-dollar? >> just looking at what's left in terms of central bank expectations, i don't think you will get a lot of change on the fed. you could argue whether or not 40% pricing for one more hike is appropriate. we are probably going to get more movement around the boe and the ecb and if anything, the pattern would be there is less expectation for hikes. i think you wind up with a stronger dollar type of environment because of the differentials and expectation

wednesday, jay powell's statement and outlook for the months ahead joining me is "the new york times" federal reserve and economicing reporter jeanna smialek. good morning thanks for being here. let's start off, everybody is assuming that hike will happen and i believe you believe it's going to happen but what you expecting from powell's press conference a hawkish tone or something different? >> you know, i think jay powell is going to keep his options open we have a long time before the next fed meeting the fed doesn't make another decision until september 20th so have two jobs reports and two cpi reports, so from their perspective they have every reason to really sort of play this as sort of loose as they can, try to make sure they sort of don't commit too hard to any individual path. >> so they want to stay loose. that sounds different from what we've heard from the fed so far and they want to keep it loose and heard in austan goolsbee and other fed speakers that we should expect two hikes including this one expected tomorrow do you believe that we are going to see that second hike

jay powell not as hawkish as some suggest that he would've been.he decision that the central bank of raising rates to 22-year high's will not aside gently mean a recession. that they can engineer a soft landing for the american economy. >> the staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth, but given the resilience of the economy, they are no longer forecast in a recession. haslinda: let's get to our next and what that means. rohit chatterji from jpmorgan. do you believe no recession? that can only be good news for mergers and acquisitions. >> i am starting to feel quite positive that while volumes were down in the first half of the year, we are starting to see things picked up in the second half of the year. if you are off the view the fed will engineer a soft landing, then that creates a confidence around the law-- outlook. haslinda: confidence can be rocked, especially by politics. we are seeing u.s. tensions rising. >> there is definitely murkiness in the macro environment. if you have a war, geopolitics, the specter of inflation. there is plent

you've spoken to jay powell. i think the last time we had you on the show, you had just interviewed him a few days earlier. can you get inside his head a little bit? he was insistent, don't say pause. that's not what we did. okay erik it's not a pause -- okay, it's not a pause, it's not a stop in your tracks for a bit. what does he mean by that? >> well, i can't get inside his head, but i think what jay powell has been trying to do and pretty effectively is telegraph what the fed is likely to do, and after it does it, explain it quite well. the tradition of the fed has been to be more opaque about what they're going to do and not all that clear about what they've done. jay powell is not trained as a ph.d. economist, he doesn't speak in traditional fed speak, and i think the markets are much better off when he can explain what they're going to do and explain what they've done. and i think the people on the hill appreciate that as well. he's spent a lot of time up on the hill, i think members like him because he sa

starting tomorrow when jay powell and federal reserve kickoff two day interest setting meeting and a quarter point hike is baked in at this point, what might force the fed's hand to continue raising rates beyond this month? if anyone has an idea, it's this guy, wall street journal chief economics reporter t nick timars and people stampede to "the wall street journal" to read it. the fed can trigger market jump scares and earnings as well. tomorrow is a huge day for megacaps and google and microsoft and gm and snap reports and verizon and general electric and this being the busiest week of the second quarter and 164 s&p companies opening their books, 12 dow members including boeing, coca-cola and reveal numbers wednesday by the way. throw meta into the wednesday pot as well. s&p right now, it is adding at the moment about 20 points. good for half a percentage point gain and at 18 point gain year to date and speaking of 18%, 18% of s&p have reported second quarter earnings, 73% so far have beaten on earnings, 61% have surpassed revenue expectations. are you sitting there thinking did i

jack mcintyre, when you look at what has just occurred and what fed chair jay powell says, your first gut reaction for if -- for your clients' money is to do what? >> so i'm not doing anything in reaction to what he said. liz: okay. >> i think in some ways this was sort of a nothing burger in the sense that, hey, we know that the fed is hawkish. i like the fact he talked about real fed if funds rate, because you don't just look at the nominal fed funds, you have to look at them the elative to inflation. -- relative to inflation. as inflation comes down, it's going to be more restrictive. i like treasuries. i like going out to the 10 10-year part of the curve as well. i think the odds are that we're going to have to go through a recession to get inflation down towards that 2% level. so i think being in treasuries is a good way to be positioned for that. liz: laird, you just brought up a great point about how concerned powell is about slaying inflation. for people who maybe just tuned in at the moment, i want to play one sound bite that really jumped out to "the claman countdown" team a

eastern today when jay powell tells us there's another rate hike on top. gas prices are starting to rise and rise sharply. regular $3.68, nationwide and that is a 5 cents overnight. diesel is moving up. up to cents to an average of 392 a gallon. a big day in politics, even before today's court hearing, drama swirling on hunter biden. jason smith wants evidence of political interference included in the hearing. the judge in the case accused one of hunter's lawyers, misrepresenting herself to remove damaging material. lawyers say it's unfortunate and unintentional this commun communication. hunter appears in court an hour from now on misdemeanor tax and in churches. "wall street journal" says you go to prison for what hunter biden did. then impeachment, speaker mccarthy has returned to the subject and says the actions i'm seeing on impeachment. i wonder if we've reached the place of impeachment fatigue. we will follow this throughout the show. crane on fire in new york city, part of the crane collapse into the street. a neighboring hotel has been evacuated,

the fed chair jay powell telling us nothing about what he may or may not do in september. is more unclear about what they did overnight. yield curve control tweaks. lisa: it is shockingly stable in markets given the uncertainty and ambiguity which is new terrain for all of the central banks, particularly japan. you said it is too early to say what the market reaction will be to the bank of japan. you said that several times. it is too early to see if people can buy into the soft landing narrative in the strategic ambiguity by all of the central banks and be ok with it. jonathan: they still have a target of zero but they seem to allow may be adrift above .5. ultimately if it gets to 1% they will step in every day and by 10-year gilts at 1%. where is the line in the sand now? we see the 10 basis point move overnight, which in japan is a real move. we push it to .6, .7? all the way to 1%? lisa: went to they start stepping in? how much is this about the yen? how much of this is getting the yen stronger? these are some of the ambiguities. the bigger question has been what impac

now jay powell is singularly focused on inflation and if he lose that, he loses everything.ia, one of the economic gdp reports is that investment popped back up and what's driving this? consumer spending is strong but investment. >> in particular, investment structures in equipment and it's fallen off in the previous two quarters and there's something with the bipartisan infrastructure bill and investment and propping for electric vehicle factories and that is chips factories or highway building. paul: heavily subsidized and moves them forward and liberal during the trump and we're being more experience for the short term sugar high from all the federal subsidies. the think the labor market and able to hire workers and i think that's actually increasing their ability to actually invest more and you're hearing that especially in the oil and gas patch. paul: sounds like we're still not out of the woods and we have to wait and see. thank you both. slow going on the battle stage and slow going in the counter offensive and taking shape and does kyiv have everything it needs to br

guy: is jay powell having a bad day? mike: somebody asked me that earlier. he does not want the economy to be bad, he wants inflation to go down. difficult to see inflation going down under these circumstances. i wouldn't say a bad day for him but just complicates what he was doing. we already had lori logan from the dallas fed say that she was one of the people that wanted to raise rates in june, still thinks we need to raise rates and maybe more than once. you will probably hear more fed officials leaning that direction. we are probably nailing down a rate increase in july. the question becomes what they do in september if we keep getting this kind of strength. that will be priced in by the markets. alix: we talk a lot about the goldilocks scenario. this is definitely a too hot then. to your point, that is why you can look at it as the good news is bad news. and do you believe it? how many reports have you read about nobody believing adp? guy: mike said earlier on that the adp is coming in under the employment report for a long time. if you look at today's

and roger ferguson is here teeing up the inflation data and what it means for jay powell and the policyay with us don't miss it. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. more exercise. eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. with over 150 personalized genetic reports from 23andme you can start your dna-powered health journey today. sleepovers just aren't what they used to be. a house full of screens? basically no hiccups? you guys have no idea how good you've got it. how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. >>> it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area still a lot ahead on "worldwide exchan

after the decision jim, what did you make of what jay powell had to say? he says he doesn't see a cut until a year from now. specific about a year from now i think a lot of people including morgan stanley expecting a cut before then. >> i think if a cut comes, it will be because inflation comes down faster than expected as opposed to a recessionary signal that mandates them to cut. i think the soft landing is in the cards as long as inflation continues to come down rapidly we'll have cpi i understand that. i'm of the opinion all of us live in. we have to fuel our cars and buy food i think it's harder for the fed to raise rates if the fed is done being data dependent, the market can continue to rally. >> i think quoit a few people share that opinion morgan stanley says in part we continue to see a soft landing for the economy with inflation and wages slowly easing as well as job gains we look for the fed to hold at the peak rate of 5.375 before making the first 25 basis point cut in march of 2024 do you see it the same way morgan stanley sees it >> no. i th

that june decision not as unanimous as jay powell might have suggested.awkishness weighing on sentiment in markets. the yield on two-year treasuries inching towards 5%, u.s. equity futures pointing to a lower opening. we get more jobs data later, ahead of the main event, nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. and the caution spilling over to the asian session with the hang seng leading declines. oil in the red, possibly a dollar move, we heard lots about that from manus cranny in vienna at the opec meeting. amrita sen underscoring the saudi message that they will do whatever it takes to get stability. we will keep up with all of that in the markets on "markets today ," coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. with over 150 personalized genetic reports from 23andme you can start your dna-powered health journey today. hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other pro

you heard jay powell talk about how that may be related to barbie and oppenheimer and people who might be going to concerts. matt: i'm going to the fish run tonight. michael: i bet you are feeling good about the economy. matt: absolutely. jon: we would like to ask the statisticians in ottawa whether they can measure the barbie impact in canada. we are seeing the stories about resilient economy, a contraction in the canadian economy based on early numbers for june 2023. i think also if he thinks about the fact that you've got an overall growth picture for the second quarter that may end up being softer than what the bank of canada zone or cast was -- canada's own forecast was, it was a question of where do we go from here? lara: we saw the preliminary data showing a 0.2 decline in gdp in june suggesting we are on track for 1% annualized in the second quarter. it is softer than the bank of canada was anticipating but a bit of a muddled picture the forest fires in may had a hard to hit on energy production, so is the energy sector climbed by 2.9%. that makes it tricky to see exactly how t

jay powell didn't shut it down yesterday. we'll be watching this.e rates we'll continue to take rates higher. what's the impact? at this point we need to see how much higher interest rates have turned people away from buying a home, turned people away because they put too much debt on their credit card. consumer spending is 2/3 of the economy. we'll see economic growth slow down significantly when -- the expectations have been pushed out on a recession. people are a lot more positive given the strength of earnings. >> jacque: anything that might impact this. since student loan repayments beginning again. >> the federal reserve has up against a tsunami of spending. most people will say yes, the federal reserve is the only game in town and the ones who own the vote in terms of taking the inflation down. not the democratic party or white house. they put more stimulus out there. i think the fed is getting frustrated with this. you don't hear jay powell speaking out about it but a lot of people have said slow down the spending. that's impacting our abili

. >> most people are expecting a hawkish tone on the press conference with jay powell, expect him tosay we're still data dependent, looking for inflation to cool down to 2% i think a lot of people put the analogy out there. it's like losing the last three pounds on the diet we have a lot of disruptions in the economy with labor negotiations that a lot of people believe could be inflationary. >> i wanted to get to you in particular on the strike we have until the august 1st deadline they're going to talk again tomorrow what is the likelihood they will not be able to strike and disrupt our economy? >> i don't think there's any real odds on it. they're going back to the table on tuesday, negotiating over pay. one of the sticking points is pay for part-time workers. u.p.s. made it clear they're ready to raise their pay rates but their sticking points around automation, work conditions that still have to be ironed out. in general i think most of us should be hopeful that some type of deal can be worked out. there's some reports out there, there would be a $7 billion negative impact on the

like jay powell says, that is what we will get over the next few weeks. haidi: the rba this week has one more hike left in its back pocket. the question is whether it will deploy it this week. kathleen: that is the big split. freighters are more inclined now to say they will not hike rates now, they will pulse again. but look at economists. they are more in that they are going to do more camp. 11 economists out of the 26 we surveyed see a hold. look at retail sales. they sell a lot. 0.8% in the latest report. that has been something chugging along nicely up in positive territory the last month. and most of the previous months. but rate hikes are starting to take their toll. the fact that mortgage rates have gone up. that is something else that eats into their pocketbooks. in terms of what happens next and what you are going to bet on in this meeting, 4.1% has been held steady for this will be the second meeting in a row they do that. but inflation, while it came down in the latest quarterly numbers to 6.0% year-over-year from 7.0% year-over-year. it is st

is jay powell's rate hike campaign over? >> reporter: i wish i knew for sure.aybe the gdp number coming in a little hotter than expected might push towards a yes. there might be an increase, we'll have to see. but inflation is the word of the year in economic circles. inflation has hurt the president's poll numbers, hurting across the board. inflation forcing the federal reserve there into its is 11th rate hike of this cycle. jay powell believes inflation will not hit the fed's target until 2025, and a possible nod to the fact that rates will remain higher through all of next year. listen to this. >> core inflation's still pretty el elevated, you know? there's reason to think it can come down, but it's still quite elevated, and so we think we need to stay on task and certainly hold policy at a restrictive level for some time. and we need to be prepared to raise further if that, if we think that's appropriate. >> reporter: so in an exclusive interview this morning with mornings with maria, the chairman and ceo of bank of america said we see a recession, but the

chairman jay powell said rates could hold steady at that september meeting. >> investors are set for another huge hour of earnings. all set to report results.

jay powell touting resilient spending and plans to keep up the effort to slow down the economy and tamelation. >> we can afford to be a little patient as well as resolute as we let this unfold. we think we're going to need to hold -- certainly hold policy at restricted levels for some time. we need to be prepared to raise further if we think that's appropriate. maria: coming up, the ceo of bank of america is here, brian moynihan at the top of the 8:00 a.m. hour with an exclusive look at the fed rates, the banking sector and technology and financial services, such as a.i. and tokenization. all of this as the earnings parade continues this morning, mcdonald's and southwest airlines out before the opening bell. we've got the numbers. check out meta rallying after reporting its most profitable quarter since 2021. we are also waiting on june durable goods orders this morning and the first read of the second quarter gdp, both out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. stay with us for those numbers. european markets taking a look at them right here as the european central ban at 8:15 a.. stocks are higher in

we'll hear from federal reserve chairman jay powell today at 2:30 p.m. eastern.ion he will give a press conference. that's what we're focused on, his language about the current economic backdrop. joining me is grants interest rate observer founder and editor, jim grant. it's great to see you. welcome back. >> lovely to be here. maria: you've seen lots of cycles over and over again. how would assess the current cycle and what do you think is most important for the federal reserve to talk about this afternoon. >> the cycle is a strange one. it has indeed -- many of the events of the past few years have been unusual, unique. the so-called yield curve, the alignment of rates over the course of the years, the short rate's very high. much higher than longer dated rates which over the past eight instances of recession, this negative yield curve has invariably been an indicator of the troubles to come. look at the stock market and other such indicators, speculative interest -- maria: that's right. >> there ain't no recession in the eyes of many people. maria: that's exac

there is an interesting pressure on jay powell. he has tried to play it both ways.ngs here and there at these press conferences. earlier i remember earlier in the year the financial conditions were starting to ease. he kind of said he downplayed it. he pulled out his on time horizon to make it look like it wasn't pulling back but one of the charts you posted we're clearly coming down a lot with respect to the goldman sachs financial conditions to the point i don't know if this is supposed to correlate with the fed's work but it looks like they haven't done much? >> indeed. financial conditions are driven by a number of market factors, short-term rates, long-term rates, and short-term rates are driven by the fed and of course credit spreads and stock prices and market like i said has moved on to a different narrative and it has allowed financial conditions to ease at a time when the fed is not done with its tightening campaign and based on that chart you can see the financial conditions have actually eased all the way to the levels of a year ago spring. charles: righ

but tomorrow in this hour fed chair jay powell will be speak live right here on "the claman countdown" on what the central bank might be mulling for the three meetings left in 2023. it's a must-see show, 3 p.m. eastern tomorrow. make sure you're there. now, to the here and now, microsoft and alphabet are about to report quarterly earnings after the bell, microsoft up 1.5%. google-alphabet about 1 percent higher. we're going to be talking how many times both of these companies mention a.i. during their conference call. last season microsoft mentioned it 50 times on the earnings call. google went beyond that. google mentioned a.i., or artificial intelligence, 64 finals. but it has certainly, their footprint in artificial intelligence has certainly helped these companies. we'll see what happens after the bell with their numbers. the dow looks to notch its 12th gain in a row, the longest streak since february of 2017. right now a chunk of the 60-point gain due to 3m. take a look at the dow heat map. 3m has the baton firmly in its hands, it is streaking to the top of the dow heat map after

you know, carol, it's so amazing because even as -- you know, jay powell says that, and infuriates meng moments before that, right? they raised rates. rich people have assets that increase in value, poor people lose their job. i mean, it's so amazing, this transfer of wealth, ask and you talk about this in your book. >> yeah. this is the most frustrating thing, charles. i want to basically break my tv every time i hear powell say this, but then i can't watch you, so it balances out. the fed along with the government has been the biggest driver of nonmerit-based inequality that there is. they say that their mandate is stable prices and full employment, but i really think their mandate is propping up the wall street as well as government spending. can if you think about the trillions that have been transferred in recent years, you know, first we saw the inflation and assets which benefited the wealthy and well connected while savers and spenders had their risks disrupted. now average americans are paying for it quite literally through inflation. and so everything the fed does seems to b

initially, this is what jay powell was talking about, this is transitory. it did. didn't seem like anyone was looking at this part, the runaway wages. >> i grade your analysis aaa. charles: there you go. >> top of the heat. you're so right, what we keep forgetting is we should not become complacent about inflation as long as there is a pretty strong likelihood that wage growth is going to pick up. average wage is up 4.4%. from what i'm hearing, all these companies, these businesses, manufacturers are having to pay wage hikes of between my five and 10%. never mind what is nevermind what is going on with some of these airlines. wage growth means higher labor input costs. as people make more money they are better able to absorb higher prices so you end up with the wage price spoil. and inflation goes up. and and ups looming large, $7 billion hit. and people even -- they earn more money and where does it stop? >> a softening of labor market, and rise in unemployment rate. charles: can the federal reserve do that, to break the labor market. >> might prove to be

it seems like there is a more logical way to do it than the way jay powell is doing it. the banks are getting richer, the rich are getting richer and poor people like me are getting poorer and poorer every day. guest: that is -- there is a lot of people who are frustrated with where we are right now with inflation. the point to keep in mind is if you do not deal with inflation and you allow it to become more persistent and let it run through the economy, we have seen in other countries is it is terrible for the poor. if you are on fixed income, not making a lot of money and your paycheck cannot cover the increase in prices for goods and services that you need, it is worse for the poor. the challenge here is there is never an easy fix when you get a problem like inflation. the question now is, over what period of time do you deal with it? host: the federal reserve chair said yesterday the board no longer predicts a recession. what did you make of that line? guest: what he is talking about is the fed has a staff of hundreds of economists that put together a finely tuned fo

on wednesday i did a piece for investment club which talked about, we're not going to get what jay powellants. i think there's a big mistake. i think that we keep thinking that he will be happy with, it's going in the right direction that's what we keep hearing. and i don't think he wants that. i think he wants it to be better than it was, and he stuck -- remember, housing used to be in the cpi, took it out in 1983, but housing's terrible and i use the story about the -- my favorite -- >> people may get confused when you say housing is terrible. within five minutes from now, you're going to talk about housing stocks being great >> you're absolutely right >> explain what you're saying. >> i apologize home prices have gone up 40% since 2019 but home prices are not in the cpi, but i honestly think that we may look at the cpi and say, maybe we're out of the woods, but i think that jay powell is saying, hey, listen, these have to come down we need more homes, and yet the housing companies are doing so well because for the first time, they're not building homes unless they have buyers. so, we'v

here's the head of the fed, jay powell saying that very thing that we and the fed are trying to triponomy without causing it to fall flat on its face. he says it more gently. >> we remain committed to bringing inflation back to our 2% goal and to keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored, reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. >> so the fed's goal is to bring inflation under control while not causing a recession by slowing the economy and we've got more evidence the economy is actually speeding up. yesterday the non-partisan congressional budget office said it was adjusting its economic forecasts saying a recession is far less likely than it first predicted. back to you. >> all right, thanks, scott. >> well, you wouldn't know it if you've been walking around here in the bay area this week, but right now more than one-third of the u.s. population living under an excessive heat warning.blistering heat impacting other parts of california and cities and towns all of the way east over to maine, e