well, we have jay powell. actually much better than jay powell.ere is what we have, john carney, "breitbart economics and finance" editor and coauthor of the "breitbart" business die gist which digest which is a must-read. we'll put in steve forbes here in a minute. john, go ahead, tell me how great jay powell was today. he didn't mention -- i don't want to be like friends of mine and ask the question and give you the answer, but the fact he never mentioned the oil spike which is an oil shock, except when our reporter edward lawrence a very smart chap, clever chap, asked him about it, gave the stupidest, goofiest answer i ever heard. >> i am glad he was asked about it. this does not only affect of oil and money people spend for it but other things note made for oil. if you pay for gasoline you don't have money to spend for a concert or movie ticket. it is a tax on americans. joe biden loves that he wants there to be a tax on americans in the form of higher gas prices because they have a religious fanaticism about hating the production of fossil fu

how would you grade jay powell? one of the things they keep asking republican candidates, would you keep jay powell on the job? >> no, i would not. i grade him, he is weak like biden he is weak but he is in a very important position. i'm in a business that so goes housing and commercial real estate for that matter so goes the economy and he is killing it with interest rates and another hike, i know the fed didn't do it today but they will have another hike before the end of the year. supply chain shortages. lumber mills are having problems. a lot are shutting down. you will not be able to get supplies. it is a whole host. only way to correct this is change the administration. they're tone deaf to anything positive in america. charles: right. >> the jay powell, the next question who do you replace him with? charles: yeah. you read the teleprompter [laughter]. >> no, i didn't. who do you replace him with? i don't know. there are viable candidates out there but being handed a with what the policies of this administrati

do you think jay powell will scare the markets tomorrow, people will say no problem, soft landing, nove the highest regard for jay as you do. we used to have lunch with him while we're at the white house. he is real serious about fighting inflation, 100% want to. he is getting bad advice. jay is not a phd economist. they have 500 of them at the fed. all of them are trained by kensyians in cambridge, massachusetts. we're all going to be okay but we're not. jay will see another month or two of bad data then he will crack down hard. i guess he is signaled a pause. he doesn't want to surprise things. that he won't be crazy when he talks to markets this week. larry: kevin hassett, we'll leave it appreciate it. >> thanks, larry. larry: live on set, liz peek, syndicated columnist, fox news contributor, deroy murdoch, senior fellow at the london center for policy research and also a fox news contributor. what is this oil thing do? i will go to deroy first. deroy, this is a basic necessity including the fertilizer, dot, dot, dot, food part, right? these are all kitchen table issues what does t

meeting is being held today and tomorrow.od there is an f1c announcement followed by the usual jay powell conference slated for tomorrow afternoon. i guess at 230.he >> for all you fed watchers anrd others concerned about the stock market portfolio. the fed has a brand-new challenge it's called a hundred dollar oil pretty good story oni the wall streetet journal websic all about saudi and russiautn production cuts in the fed is going to hold their interest rate target study tomorrow. i guess everybody thinks that the several and novelist think world oil is under stock by several million built into barrels a day and going beyond the journal oil story, joe biden has essentially frozen drilling in alaska at big chunks of the gulf of mexico and closing downs oil and gas exploration in the t great state of new mexico. i believe we got that news today which happens to be the home of the interior secretary, deb haaland who is a native american who insist on going against the tribes in new mexico were sowh many other native americans would love to have high-paying jobs in the oil fields, go figur

so september is shaping up as a battle between jay powell and housing. with pesky energy costs at the same time. i do not envy this man. but unlike pretty much everyone else in the media, i'm giving the guy the benefit of the doubt. after all he's navigated us through since covid began. he deserves that benefit of the doubt. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer, see you tomorrow, "last call" starts now. >>> governor chris christie on the record, the gop presidential candidate making his case for his economic vision for america and much more in a wide ranging live interview. >>> a mess in the unfriendly skies, a brief nationwide ground stop for united airlines raising even more questions. why have there been so many air travel issues over the past year or two? former united ceo oscar munoz is here. call it media's last stand, the fight for your tv and your money taking an unexpected turn. the ftc writing the antitrust hammer against amazon. we'll have the breaking

jay powell's comments really spooked investors this week, ben. >> yeah.ld say that the market is fed up. they were expecting no rate hikes, and they didn't get a rate hike, but they were also expecting the fed to signal that the cuts would start next year and that there would be about four cuts. the fed actually has two. and that combinedded with some comments powell made about maybe a soft landing not being the base case, that was a problem for the market, and it really did sell it off. i think if you're looking for a silver lining, the market looks very oversold right now. sentiment is way down, and the number of stocks that are trading above the 50-day moving average is down to about 20%, and that could be a bullish sign going forward. jack: just because it's so contrarian. a lot of headwinds, ben. the uaw strike, probably a government shutdown and then the economy refuses to play to the tune the that jay powell wants, the jobless claim numbers just came out, and they're lower than in a long time, so that job market keeps on moving ahead. and then the

what's so much cheap they're jay powell can declare victory? hard to think of anything for me. toes think of many things much more expensive. for two years we've heard the fed's rapid rate hikes would crush inflation and lead to rate cuts. that's not happening. let me give you the disconnect. the hedge fund managers, the bill nation, they don't go to the supermarket. someone else goes to supermarket for them. they're not suffering from higher prices because they don't even know about the higher prices. frankly, the supermarket budget is way too small versus the discretionary income that they have. these gas bags have either forgotten what it's like to not have a lot of money or they never lacked for it all. they don't forget it's a big deal when rice is up 50% in a couple of months or glass of beer is 8 bucks or scallions cost $2.99 and a box of annie's mac & cheese goes for $5.40. you can use all the fed speak you want, but powell doesn't care than stuff. he is talking about the cost of scallions. he talking about the wild rice plants. he knows the real score, even if the pund

those job numbers should bring a smile to jay powell's face. but forget about ufo, who's running the fed? and we're going to break down the current labor trends. more importantly for us, the challenges, small businesses, they have some unique challenges. we've got some unique ideas. what about nepotism? it's all the rage, right? everyone's talking about nepotism these days. well, it's entered the housing market. is that a bad thing? i've got a next guest who says beware. and forget yolo, how about you only die once? if why americans are ruining their future to be hot in the moment. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, folks, you can see on the board markets sort of meandering although the bias is to the upside as we get ready to celebrate labor, a long 3-day weekend. with that in mind, there is intriguing action though, and this is what i love about this show because that's what's i loved to do, find these nuances, nooks and crannies, these developments that you have to know. if you missed the first half, you can

here is what jay powell just said and then i want you to comment. because he was asked by reporters two different times and there was a little bit after miscommunication. and afterward the second reporter said, jeez, i didn't get the sense is a soft landing was your number one priority. here is your reaction. >> to begin, a soft landing is a primary objective. i did not say otherwise that is it what we're trying to achieve for all of this time. the real point though is the worst thing we can do to fail to restore price stability because the record is clear on that. if you don't restore price stability inflation comes back and you can have a long period about the economy is just very uncertain and it will affect growth, it will affect all kinds of things. it can be a miserable period to have inflation constantly coming back and fed coming in to tighten again and again. so the best thing we can do for everyone, we believe is restore price stability. liz: you don't want to see a stop start, stop start, do you, bob? >> for sure not. i think, liz, what h

we will also hear from central leaders such as jay powell and christine lagarde.pce. if the fed preferred measure of inflation. you are expected to see core pce drop as headline continues to heat up. that mirrors what we saw in cpi expected see the same thing with pce. the diversions we see between headline and core pce maybe it will row if we continue to see energy prices continue to climb. what that means for the federal reserve, we will see. from new york, that does it for us. this was bloomberg real yield and this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? have we piqued your inte

the dollar climbed as jay powell signals cuts are not on the horizon. stocks sold off in the u.s. session. >> prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. we intend to hold policy a restrictive level until we are confident inflation is moving sustainably to our objective. kriti: the knife edge rate decision in the u.k. after inflation unexpectedly fell to an 18-month low. central bank-palooza continues. tottenham hotspur chairman daniel levy is open to selling a stake in the london football club. let's get it quick check on markets because it is central bankk this is a howell hangover, if you will. take a look at futures. anything can happen as we get more information from the bank of england. euro stoxx 50 futures down 1%. a lot of that is going to be priced in from pain in the equity market. he saw after chair powell's comments yesterday, the idea that we ours ticking to hire for longer even if it means pausing at the top. at the end of the day, we got a hawkish skip, however you want to say it. futures indicating that as well because a lot of this was priced into the afterno

compensate for the transitory if he can engineer soft landing against all odds, so i don't think jay powellcriticism. >> i think it is happening do i believe that the data i am seeing especially we are seeing a cooling off in the labor market, i have a feeling because cover this report every month weaker numbers than what even expecting because big part the strikeout -- but see if i am right or wrong, three minutes also too i think with labor market cooling not far enough, people getting not mass firings right now would be -- >> that is going that could happen, i think as demand goes down, let me tell you two charts that i have here, that are not floating around in terms of work charts, corporate sentiment, is nearing all-time high employee outlook employee sentiment, at lowest point since 2016. the employer is now back in charge you saw with quits rate back below pre-pandemic levels, certain people skill sets you can demand certain amounts of money, but we saw 350,000 jobs taken out of first quarter number, i don't think jobs market is strong as has been made out to be. >> i kind of disagr

also in energy, a recent thorn in jay powell's side we look at wtis, the u.s.enchmark right now at under 90 bucks a barrel down 1.5%. brent crude just above 93 bucks a barrel down about 4% right now. to the action or inaction on capitol hill, congress is staring down a deadline to avert a partial government shutdown at the end of this month, now just 11 days away infighting with house republicans is preventing lawmakers from passing a stopgap measure after funding spires on september 30th republicans failing to advance the spending bill yesterday. a group of five hard-lined conservatives are joining democrats to vote against opening debate on the measure. much more on that story coming up later this hour. >>> first let's get a check on some of this morning's top corporate stories. our silvana henao is here with those this morning good morning to you. >> good morning to you, thank. ipo's klaviyo prices ipo at $30 a share. the stock will begin trading at the new york stock schainch today under the ticker kvyo with blackrock and a.b. bernstein agreeing to buy up t

football markets trying to -- financial markets trying to regain their footing after jay powell appeared at least to throw in the towel on a soft landing, so today a brigade of fed speakers trying to keep things real but at the same time trying the keep things calm. we're going to play scenarios out for you on this show. we've got you covered how you want to be positioned. plus, the bond boondoggle. never have bonds been down three years in a row. we're going. to discuss the risk of risk-free investing. and then there was a time when ph.d.s were actually a rare thing at the fed, that's right. now, of course, you trip on them every time you walk down the hall, but could the fomc actually use some street smarts? senator bob menendez hit with his second corruption charge in less than a decade after fbi agents found gold bars in hissous house, even cash stuck in his pockets. i can't wait to hear what david webb has to say about that. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, folks, coming up we've got one of these things it's the end of the world and the other one,

jay powell signaling a careful approach to the central bank interest rate strategy. >>> not giving up lock in the votes needed to pass the bill with days before the deadline. >>> and shares of fedex getting a pop on the back of quarterly results as the shipping giant capitalizes on the struggles by rivals. >>> it is thursday, september 21st, 2023 and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. >>> good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland coming to you live from the washington, d.c. bureau. this has become the center of attention for wall street for the looming federal government shutdown. with that in mind, let's check on the u.s. stock futures after the fed's decision to pause the rate hiking campaign for now. looking at futures which are under pressure. dow is opening up 100 points lower. nasdaq down .50% in the pre-market. chairman jay powell stressing the central bank has a long way to go in the fight against inflation. >> inflation is moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. longer term expectations appear to remain well anchored. the proc

maria: i wonder if this is a topic today for jay powell, looking at europe, looking at china. the japanese yen. all of these things are factors. >> of course. and capital a is fluid. as jay knows, capital discriminate across borders. it goeses to where it's treated best. you're right, maria. what's happening in europe and china should be part of chairman powell's thinking. maria: what are you watching for today when you hear from the fed chairman. >> so we can all the take that it's i've effectively completet he won't do anything today. the fed fund futures market is saying it's 50%, a toss-up, that he's going to raise rates in october. i want to see how handles that issues. is it no, we're going to be sensitive to incoming day that we may, we may not. i think the market's going to steer very hard in his eyes and try to figure out exactly what it means for october. maria: next two day meeting, october 31st and november 1st. jay, it's great to get your insights on all of this. thank you so much for being here. quick break and then senator mitch mcconnell warns republican lawmak

charles: tomorrow jay powell is going to speak.he will try to re, reintroduce the notion of a soft landing. i don't know how he does it. his body language let us down last week and the market has been straight down ever since. >> i got to tell you i'm with you, i don't know how he will be able to convince anyone there is a soft landing coming because i see it, you see it, inflation is start being rear its ugly head. we'll get the pce tomorrow, which is their favorite inflation gauge anyway. it is already expected to be elevated. two weeks behind that we'll get the september cpi, ppi and that is expected to be elevated and with oil nookiesing $95 a barrel, where do you think inflation is going, is it going down? if you take the pieces out it is going down. if you leave anything in there that is legitimate, how could it possibly go lower? charles: everyone acknowledges the stymie money is gone. we spent our money faster than any other country so we should be proud. we got the last version of the gdp number. consumption was cut dramat

the focus is going to be on show jay powell thinks about recent economic challenges. have the autoworker strike, higher oil prices, higher long-term yields and a potential government shutdown. beyond, that the focus is on what the fed signals for the rates and economy next year. no chance of a hike built in for today. but a 30% probability for november. 40% -- sorry, right, and 40% for september. meanwhile, there's a 43% chance probability of a rate cut priced in for june. but when you look at the actual yields, the ek xpectations for next year are higher than they were in may. so all that has convinced the markets that the fed is going to be higher for longer than previously expected. given that success so far, it's unlikely the fed is going to give markets a reason to think the fed also be easier next year, especially since it's fighting the inflation battle. the reckoning whether the fed is too high next year can wait, guys, for next year. >> i promised myself coming into this that i wasn't going to use that phrase, but i'm going to violate that promise now. >> you

i used to have a great big income business and it went to nothing because of jay powell and now it isack again. for people that want, buying one and two year paper above 5% riskless, with no local and state taxes. you can't go wrong with that but people that can't stand the ups and downs of the stock markets. charles: gary, man, you and i spent a couple of 9/11s together. i remember sitting on a roof across from the empty space where the buildings were. i think you often on this day, my man. glad you're on the show. >> thank you, charles. tough day. we pray for all the families. charles: certainly do. i can't wait to tell you the a story about parents of one of the brave men who lost his hot. that is later in the show. thanks, gary. i ask guests about their macroeconomic outlook because it really matters particularly for stock-pickers. take a look at this table. it is a important interesting table. it gives you four economic conditions, right? goldilocks, disinflation, re-flation, assets. how. this goes back to 1973. th helps figure out where you want to position your portfolio. i wan

rising up whether the long-term run rate will be the same, whether it is a moving variable that jay powells feeling his way through looking at each piece of empirical evidence at a time? betsey: well, you know, powell said at the jackson hole conference that they are navigating by the stars under a cloudy sky. that is a lovely poetic way to express it. the stars he is talking about are the neutral rate. and, the unemployment rate. the natural rate of unemployment. the reality is nobody knows what those are now. i think that is one of the challenges. not long ago we were worried a neutral rate had really fallen and was stuck at a very low place. i do not think anybody has any confidence it is going back to where it was pre-pandemic. at the same time, i don't think anyone has any evidence it will not. so, your guess is as good as mine. haidi: i want your thoughts on stickiness and inflation. one of those are expect that may challenge the outlook for energy prices and the other could challenge the outlook when it comes to wage inflation. these ongoing examples of labor market activism. you ta

maybe it is not jay powell. maybe it is not the president. maybe it is taylor swift. alix: if you are talking about taylor swift, you, if you are talking t. swift, i feel like you are the counter indicator of where we are going. [laughter] enda curran, liz mccormick, thank you so much. is inflation rick celebrating? ankur crawford is fred alger mangement's executive portfolio manager, coming up next. this is bloomberg. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. this is a clustomer. hello! it's what happens when marketers group customers with very different behaviors... into one tangled mess. this is a mess! with mailchimp, markete

chair jay powell said economic strength pushed the rate expectations higher. >> i always thought theoft landing was a plausible outcome. a path to a soft landing. i said that and it is also possible that the path has narrowed and widened apparently. ulti ultimately, this may be decided by factors outside our control. >> here it is. anyone who has been watching these meetings will know this is the fmoc dot plot. it is very important because it shows the majority of fmoc members expect one further rate hike this year. the average projection suggesting two cuts next year. that is the one that really caught the market by surprise. you can can see the dots here. they raised the forecast for where the interest rate is going to end up. that was interpreted to be hawkish from market participants. projections showed tighter policy than the forecast had at the june meeting where it indicated four rate cuts next year. fmoc members seeing an average rate of 3.9% in 2025 compared to 3.4% in june. this meeting was the first time the members projected policy in 2026 where they see rates above the l

new york time. 30 minutes later you get the jay powell conference.ll we see fireworks? alix: the fireworks will come from mike mckee because he asks the best questions, and 93% of the time all the analysts that write up the research after all quote the answer to his question. i think last time it was on the taylor swift economy. it's usually you. do you know your question yet? mike: my kind of question, underlying question to jay powell about this is given all of the known unknowns out there like oil prices, the government shuts down, what the uaw strike, how much confidence do they have in whatever they are forecasting today because a lot could change in a very short period of time. i think that would be a key question for them. yesterday there was an 85% chance they would raise rates and other futures markets show less than a 50% chance. guy: are you really asking the fed chair if he knows what he's doing? mike: sure why not. it's not a question if he knows what he's doing but how does he know what he's doing if things can change so much. we'll get

that could solidify the bets the fed will hold the line on rates when jay powell and policymakers meet next week. traders are pricing in a 97% chance of no wrate hike this month. outlook is uncertain with a 40% odds of .25 hike next month. let's discuss that with mark avalone. >> good morning. >> what was your read with hotter than expected inflation report? specifically when you breakdown services where we saw hospitality and air fares come in higher than expected. >> it is not surprising to me. it is because we travel a lot and with we have client meetings and planes are sold out. the pricing is through the roof. the wages that the workers at the organizations are earning are higher than the fed target. if you have higher costs and higher demand from consumers and then higher prices is the result. we looked at the higher oil prices and higher energy prices. if the fed takes oil out of the numbers and data crunching, oil is a part of other component parts throughout the cycle and economic chain. we are not surprised that inflation is stubborn. we expect it to remain so. >> what does i

fed starts the two-day policy meeting today with the economic forecast set for tomorrow afternoon jay powell and fmoc members are widely expected to keep rates on hold the markets have been bumpy since the july meeting when they hiked a .25% the s&p is down 2.5% since the july meeting let's talk about this vince larusso. vince, you are here in the house. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about this $1.6 billion in assets under management what are you telling clients about positioning and all allocations ahead of the fed decision >> we are active managers. we have been managing money for our clients. we have a team of analysts that look for opportunities we see all of the cross currents in the markets it is self serving to say that we have been doing that for 20 years. when you think of the uaw and the fed today and thinking about the dual mandate with lowering inflation and keeping labor in check. we are doing within the capital markets is seeing the consumer slowing down excess savings are depleted. interest rates will have an impact on delinquencies. we are finding sectors and themes with

alix: we love the question where they asked jay powell do you believe your own forecast? do you biontech here or do you sell it? -- do you buy tech or sell it? joanne: if you're trying to build wealth you need to own tech because technology companies will be growing. they are responding to the changing demographics of the world. whether it is a i are the aging population and effecting opportunities. these are the places you need to own if you're going to build wealth over time. longer term you want to own microsoft, broadcom, cisco. guy: do i need to own them now? this is the key question everyone is trying to understand. if we are higher for longer, with future growth that it different level how do i make that adjustment if the adjustment is still coming? will there be a better entry point to own the stocks down the road? joanne: trying to time the appropriate entry point is challenging. one thing you said that was on point, rates will be higher for longer. so what are you waiting for some biontech? the decrease in valuations is already in those numbers. is this a good t

i will take each data point like jay powell approach yes cycles things come home to roost i think ifn now, you still have that he covid crowding hangover extremes now starting to go -- i think cpi numbers, you know in core coming tomorrow. >> inflation tomorrow talking about it i have a feeling jay powell never, ever again will use the word are transitory. >> no. >> i think out of his vocabulary. >> don't you think there is a realistic possibility we get sticky inflation, somewhere in that three to four percent range debt, deficit, i know energy situation, when talking about strength of consumer, three or four percent a year compounding that eats away at middle class isn't that a concern forward. >> it is a concern i am looking two lenses stock market, and economic market, i am going with stock market is doing economically you are one hundred percent right energy watch energy tomorrow gas prices went up look what happened in texas hottest summer on record, bills went up student debt coming back, there are concerns. but when i look at how stocks are reacting to those overall concerns

what jay powell said yesterday?nd of clinging to the phillips curve, like that's really what they believe in, and we're all just kind of wondering, hey, are you guys going to make the soft landing that we're expecting you to do? the fed is not a bunch of pilots. it's a bunch of firefighters. they really don't have easy mechanisms to make this perfect, delicate, soft landing, and that makes it really hard for them. they want the soft landing, and they want the ability for job growth to continue, but not too much, and they want the ability for inflation to come down but not so much that it negatively impacts the rest of the economy. it's hard. >> i mean, they have that horrible sophie's choice, whether they want to have a soft landing with inflation staying quite a bit above 2% or do they want a harder landing where they get inflation under control? that's not a great choice for anybody. >> i think they would rather err on the side of waiting at rates too high and having less economic output. i think they're just terr

disappointed at the fed's meeting because i don't think except for our reporter edward lawrence, jay powellon, oil, energy, which could be a more serious problem than anybody realizes and if that's true, that's target going higher and lots of interest rates are going higher and stocks going lower tomorrow. and the strategic petroleum and it's masking for a very long time and biden policies and buying votes. they're buying down. they're still 3, 400 million left and the peak was over 700 million and 357 million barrels left. think that was a key point? >> i certainly do. absolutely. again, now what we're seeing is in place of strategic reserve being drained down, private reserves are coming down making up for the fact we're run ago deficit in terms of oil production. lyrics david, we're getting screwed by they're not our friends, opec+ and russia, saudis, iran, venezuela, and we're not prepared for it because we're not producing near capacity and not even remotely near capacity. >> i don't have a sin l good thing to say about opec+ or saudis but they're not screwing us and we have the abilit

jay powell is thinking about the $6 annie's macaroni and cheese.o hit a few things that we haven't got to yet. all the -- many of the content producer stocks are up. we've got a lot of news this morning. disney's up, fox is up, paramount, warner bros. discovery, netflix all up, perhaps on my reporting from last night and this morning that, you know, the end to the writers' strike may be near. we'll see. 9:00 a.m. today pacific time is when they meet face-to-face again. my understanding is based on conversations with people close to the negotiations, there were very few remaining points. that certainly seemed to be the hope. however, if, in fact, that should change, and the writers show up with more asks than had been anticipated by the producers, then you might have a different outcome. there was a good amount of optimism about the possibility they could finalize a deal today, and you can see what's happening there. separately, we got rupert murdoch stepping down as chairman of fox and news corp., and then we've also got this other story that we ha

a lot of disruption since jay powell indicated higher for longer. where do you go from here? i think it's important to note the nasdaq and the s&p on a three-week losing streak as well. >> i think you have to go a little bit further because july 31st was really the peak in the s&p, and then all of a sudden the two year and the ten year start moving up. and i think as soon as the two year got to five and the ten year hit that 4.25, all of a sudden equities can't handle that. and so you're seeing really that digestion of higher for longer, which jay powell just reiterated. and so i think that ultimately this will be settled because typically stocks follow bonds but bonds have been following stocks and that all year long stocks have said no recession, soft landing, rates are going to get cut next year. bonds have been saying recession, recession, recession. and now, hey, i think the stock market was right. you're getting that uninversion of the bond market. to me that's the whole story here because you really have to rerate what the multiples can be, how high can the stock marke

how much can chair jay powell do about that? valerie: not a lot when it comes to oil prices for the auto strike in the u.s.. to juxtapose that argument, we have seen a lot of progress when it comes to wages moderating whether that is average hourly earnings being the lowest in two years, the atlanta fed wage tracker softening, the implement cost index which is a quarterly measure of wage inflation also softening. the last few months we have seen labor market come into better surprised -- supply and demand. when it comes to oil prices, powell is likely not to be deterred on this because the recent rise in oil prices is really not shifting inflation excitations. inflation excitations was a battle the fed fought last year and they have done it successfully. so far, there has been chat that the recent rise in oil could dent consumer spending power causing economic growth to slow, which would be positive for powell and something he wants to see before calling and trusting the moderation in inflation we have had in the last 1.5 years.

investors disappointed after jay powell gave up the ghost own a potential soft landing even though thean mantra for the fed it has been higher for longer it is an epiphany? we'll guide you through a spate of emotions. housing market continues to be out of reach for would-be buyers. don't think you find value in the cute tiny homes. amy nixon here to explain why. there is a monster deal today, cisco, 26 billion-dollar acquisition. many are saying there could be a tidal wave of megadeals. if that is true, kenny polcari joins me in studio and how you potentially could get a piece of action. do not miss my takeaway, on the gargantuan mistake made by the grand old party by not supporting the uaw workers. they are trying to beat inflation which is from the biden climate mandate which is taking away their jobs. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right, to give up the ghost, right? if someone gives up the ghost they stop trying to do something, well they no longer believe they can do it successfully. the big headline from yesterday's fomc press conference, it actually

the remarkable thing over the last year and a half is how well it's turned out for jay powell. they've managed to reduce inflation a lot without tanking the economy, as you've said. the problem is the last mile's hard. getting back to goal and anchoring it there is going to probably require some pain. and when there's pain, there'll be complaints. >> that's what they said at jackson hole a year ago! >> yeah! >> yeah, so i was at jackson hole. my main takeaway was getting covid, but the other main -- yeah, i know! i avoided it for three years. but if you go through all of those airports required to go from the east coast to wyoming, it's kind of tough. the main takeaway is number one, they're sincere, they want 2% inflation. they read it as inflation, you know, is at goal. and compared to the year before, it has been much less painful than they anticipated. a year ago, he had prepared markets, prepared the public for real, real pain. guess what, the unemployment rate was an at the same level in both sets of remarks a year part, but inflation a lot lower. thus far, it's worked. t

he is jay powell speaking. >> we need to get to a place where we are confident that we have a stanceat will bring inflation down to 2% over time. and we have been moving toward, as we have gotten closer to it, we have slowed the place we have moved. now that we are getting closer we have the ability to proceed carefully. reporter: u.s. stocks slumped after the fed suggestion that that interest rates are set to remain higher for longer. wall street wall street indices ended. the s&p is dropping 1%, the nasdaq down 1.5%. the french government has called -- to join all effort to reduce prices at the pumps. they announced it would lift a ban on selling petrol below cost to cushion the impact of soaring crude oil prices. major supermarket chains that operate around half of petrol stations have rejected the idea. reporter: it has not happened since the 1960's. the french government is bent on going through with plans to push retailers to sell fuel at a loss. >> faced with inflation and the rise in fuel prices, we believe that everyone must and can make an effort. the proposal is not bindin

jay powell decides 2% is where they're trying to go, so that's a factor. >> steve, let me bring you ine. >> yeah. john, i'm a little bit, i don't know confused or whatever, but when you see the fed's own forecast for next year, they do show inflation coming down. they have a pc inflation number of 2.5% on the headline. 2.6% on the core. and yet, they maintain a funds rate of 5.1%. that's according to the average. again, this is not policy, this is the average of the official's forecast. but when you do the math, john, help me out here. doesn't it mean the fed gets tighter next year? and why would you want to be tightening policy into falling inflation? do i have my math right and please tell me if i'm wrong. >> the inflation has come down. it was 9.1% not long ago, now it's 3.7%. it's on the way down. i think rate, based on historical comparisons, is about where it has been for similar inflation rates. so this is a little bit of a tightening and a restriction. but it's important for economic growth. they've done this in a way that has not stifled economic growth so far, and hope it doe

will jay powell give us a hint, hard landing soft landing no landing? good news for you i have some of the best fed watchers, stephanie pomboy, bob elliot and many others. megacap starting to struggle just a little bit. dan niles, he was there in 2000 and he's here now. he will tell you what are the differences and what you should be buying through the volatility. crude oil continues to erupt. you ain't seen nothing yet. wait until i tell you estimates how high they think crude can go. i want to know president biden was at the u.n. today and made me think of some famous presidential speeches including george washington's farewell address. we want to contrast with a very special guest, you know her. kennedy is here. all that and so much more on "making money" ♪. charles: all right, so the market just stumbling on its way through the month of september which is not hisly a bad thing. i mean consider seasonality. this is typically the worst month. consider the macro conditions out there. really things could be a lot worse. now the problem of course is lead

jay powell will come out and speak during this hour about, well, he gets to be grilled by all of the reporters there. what do you get the sense of when you decide whether all of the numbers are lining up for a soft or maybe a crash landing? of the economy? >> in fact, if i were the fed, i'd be wondering how i lost control of the entire process. because a year ago the bond rate was 4%, it's 4% still. we're still talking about recession. so smoke and mirrors and how the fed is going to engineer all kinds of stuff, my reaction is where's the beef? what exactly has the fed done that actually has shown up in the economy? it's almost like the fed has lost control of the process, and it's trying desperately to make itself relevant again. liz: professor, i want to, i want to audit can your class. that's what we used to call it, awed a admitting the classes. [laughter] good luck to you, and thank you very much for talking with us right now. >> thank you for having me. liz: between arm and instacart, it's a september to remember for ipo exchange-traded funds. the renaissance etf is up 30%, and

you wonder if you will see similar bloomberg.com messaging from jay powell and the fed tomorrow. >> that'sng because to me personally, the position of the bank of canada versus the bed are similar these days. the inflation rate is not actually superhigh, around three or 4% not back to target but what they do is they allow the central banks to take a step back and look at a fuller picture of not inflation but other data which includes labor market data. we saw the unemployment rate increased by half a percent early this summer. some of the other measures as well in consumer spending are starting to show the aggregate demand is losing steam. in canada, we have inflation starting to pick up but a broader macro backup is deteriorating to put those two pieces together and that allows the bank of canada to say hold on, let's pause and wait for more weakening and macro economic data to come through let's see if that can ultimately slow inflation back to target as well. that's a good segue to the fed because it's a similar decision-making process or thinking process. there inflation is looking rea

the decision following the fed also taking a pause yesterday, federal reserve chairman jay powell saysbring inflation still to 2% and this is suggesting we're going to see higher rates for longer than we expected. a new report reveals the housing market is headed for the largest sales slowdown since 2011. are we feeling the impact of 11 rate hikes at this point in the housing market and do you think it gets worse. >> we are certainly feeling it and it is going to get worse. you look at housing starts, single family homes month over month were down 4.3%. multifamily housing starts was down 26.3%. year over year, multifamily was down over 40%. so absolutely having a huge effect on construction, real estate lending is down and so we're going to have a much smaller supply of new construction. and that just is going to make the supply shortage even worse. maria: so what are you doing in terms of dealing with an economy, macro story that you believe is going to get worse? how bad can things get? because most people expect that the effect of higher rates takes a year, year and-a-half. so we h

but i recommend taking jay powell at his word, accepting that things will be rocky for a while before they get better. i don't really see any other way to look at it. we don't have some crazy person running the fed. we have a rational person who wants to bring inflation down as part of his mandate as the fed chief, and he accepts that there's going to be some collateral damage like job losses. so own stocks that do well in inflation if you have to like the oils. we bought one today for the charitable trust literally during our monthly meeting. and when the fed wins the fight, lighten up a little on some of these commodity stocks. that's where they start losing value. i recognize the two parties have an insanely toxic relationship. it's even become toxic in the republican ranks in the house of representatives. i could make a big deal about a potential government shutdown. it's just that it won't impact the vast majority of your stocks. american politics are exhausting and discouraging and downright miserable. but i think that's already baked into the market. sixth reason is strikes. no

jay powell i thought was marginally hawkish at januaries son hole.hs he is going to get inflation down to 2% and it was looking good there when it got down to actually 2.98 i think on headline cpi but they want the inflation rate to come down and i think they understand that when you have inflation pressures and they're still shelter pressures which are probably going to ease but there is also wage pressures the only way to get wage pressures down is have demand for labor go down. and so you know, i think it's true they realize that they're going to have to have some sort of economic slow down and we have some crosscurrents right now. i saw the "beige book" yesterday and the, really the word of the day yesterday was, the word subdued which is in relation to the labor market. we have not heard the word subdued describe the job market for a long time now and, sure, it is only a two month period, july and august, but what is strange about this third quarter, there are forecasts of gdp, there is one by the atlanta fed, it is called gdp now, it is forecas

jay powell was very clear and i think this was an important issue at jackson hole last year. he said he would keep at it and this jackson hole, he closed that the fed will keep at it. i think that was a very strong signal that they are data-dependent and they are not afraid to continue to raise rates if they need to. katie: you heard mary and bring up the point that rates look oversold. there is an interesting debate going on on that debate, let's take a listen. >> continue treasury is a screaming bot. i think we continue yields vector 3% and i don't think it happens this year i think that will be a first half of 2024 event. >> i think the screaming by is the two-year. there you have the best combination of yields and as we see in the market reaction, it brings changes to this kind of normalization. that is the partisan yield curve where you will have the best risk reward in terms of owning duration. katie: we've got that view. where is the screaming by in your minds? >> i'm tempted to split the difference and say the intermediate part of the curve is pretty good. it gets you

that is one thing we will see at 2:30 because jay powell goes live.w the fed in its rate decision affects the housing market. we will talk about that with our next guest, bess friedman. this is bloomberg. ♪ make a splash with the ultimate pool party essential. blendjet gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go, so you can soak up the sun with a frosty beverage. enjoy 15+ blends before rapidly recharging via usb-c. and it even cleans itself with a drop of soap and water. stand out even when you're accidentally twinning with our kaleidoscope of colors. make this summer the coolest ever. order yours now from blendjet.com. sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh all-day energy starts with clean hydration. lmnt. more electrolytes. zero sugar. you feel the difference when you get it right. stay salty. matt: this is "bloomberg markets".

. >> he said not too long ago you are not a fan of jay powell on the way he is handling nation.that correct? >> yes. >> you think is done a better job recently in getting inflation back in control? >> i think it is largely out of his hands. i think inflation will never be as low. we have entered a period of moderately high inflation and moderately high straight. low rates push up asset prices. high rates push asset prices down. >> gmo cofounder there. perhaps we got a taste of the reflection yesterday. you mentioned that caps selloff around 2%. we also have homebuilders. their worst day since october, falling by more than 5.5%. >> we did hear from the chief investment strategist thing that despite this -- u.s. stock market performance has been impressive. this is a result of the better than anticipated stocks. more on his comments there. coming up, japan and china both back against the surging dollar. discuss the effects trends. that is next. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with

the fed kicks off on wednesday with jay powell acknowledging the economic backdrop is more favorablehan a year ago but that policymakers are ready to raise rates further if needed. investors will watch the next policy steps in brazil and paraguay which began easing cycles in august. thursday, the trade rolls into asia and europe with the boe expected to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage state -- percentage point. and traders interpreted the some recent comments on wages and inflation is potentially hawkish and that is your week ahead. haidi: our next guest says it is premature to assume the worst of china's economy is behind us. this theme will be top of mind this week for policy makers. it is great to have you. we saw signs of stabilization in domestic activity numbers and we have seen lower key policy support measures, particularly in the property sector. are you optimistic we will see the efficacy of those measures now? >> unfortunately i am not. i'm not that positive. i know we have seen improving numbers this week but i feel i am concerned about the developments in key dr