still digesting the latest from jay powell and what he had to say about the policy path forward. >>> futures are trying to build momentum with wall street still on track for its fourth down week in the last five. >>> the focus for the market today is earnings as apple is set to report after the close today. the one big number of need to watch. >>> weight-loss drugs power the bottom line at novo nordisk and shares moving in an interesting direction overseas. >>> and looking at the u.s. and what jay powell said could give emerging markets a boost today it is thursday, may 2nd, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. we're coming to you live from cnbc london. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. wall street is waking up with whiplash after the rally that saw the dow surge 500 points higher and ending the day with marginal gains u.s. stock futures are trying to build on the gains you see they are gleareen acros board. dow opening at 120 points higher nasdaq off the highs from earlier, but up .50% all this a

what do you expect from jay powell.ng or not moving with the 2:30 press conference? >> i think it's widely expected that the fed's going to be basically be on hold. everybody's going to be sitting on pins and needles to see where they are going forward. we have now had four months in a row where inflation is showing inflation at 2.4% to 2.6%, which is clearly higher. that's why everybody is thinking they're not going to cut as soon as people hoped. but it's also not so high they're going to talk about cutting rates. i think you're hearing more and more rumors. we're kind of in this weird in-between where it's not getting down to where we want. i don't think we're talking rate increases. i think the next move is going to be down. later than people hoped. >>> all right. so we're one day away from seeing that year over year in q1 wagers increase by 4%. the average over the ten years before the pandemic. right now your w.e.x. word of the day, you're worried about stagflation. >> i'm not worried about stagflation. that's the

back to jay powell >> we looking at the 2.2% objective.ompany decided to maintain the target range at 5.25% to 5.5% and significantly reduce securities holdings at a slower pace >> u.s. futures are moving higher on the jay powell comments also looking at u.s. job openings they fell to the lowest level in three years according to the jolts survey this is indicating the labor market is cooling off. the latest data from adp suggests hiring is not slowing down private payrolls increased at a quick pace the chief economists said wage growth is resilient in the u.s. >> the pay growth for people switching jobs and high job openings means job wages are not playing along. they are higher with the 2% target as we look at what the labor market is saying, it is saying to the fed we are a smoking ember and we could ignite and watch wages. wage growth is strong. >> here to discuss the u.s. economy and european economy is dan lakai. great to have you here >> good morning. thank you for having me. >> that decision by jay powell give me a sense, how did yo

i know you defended jay powell but -- >> not a matter of defending jay powell. it is a matter of defending those who are creating the data. we now know they were not wrong. there was a loss of 192,000 jobs in the third quarter and september 30th, 2023. i -- charles: this stuff was revised months later. >> of course that was revised but that does not erase the reality where we were last year with job losses as of september the 30th. charles: how do we get around that? on friday, if he put out this is the jobs report, it is not real, ignore it, six months from now it may be 1000% different? >> that is not how market react. markets always pin on the initial print and you will see jay powell at the podium doing the same. he will talk about the initial print on the economy that appeared to be so robust. give it a little bit of time. he is talking about a false reality. charles: of these things which will be more prominent, fed rate cuts push them out, keep them in play. >> defend the rate cuts as the unemployment rate continue to do tick up after every meeting. he ha

mark cranfield with the analysis from jay powell, thank you indeed.rom the macro to the corporate facing stories and apples results after the market closed indeed. revenue expected to contract indeed amid a regulatory pressure and ai strategy concern. let's cross over to peter ahlstrom. what can we expect from the numbers? how much will be a china story? peter: all eyes are on apple, trying to figure out how the company navigates these -- these resistant forces ahead of it at this point. it's an unusual place, they've had an amazing run and now they are struggling. revenue declined this quarter. expectations are revenue will be down 5% because of the smart phone market and china has been challenging. iphones are a big growth driver for many years. in china they are facing headwind because of the resurgence of wall way and shall me. we've seen them lose ground in china to those companies, especially wall way. the u.s. blacklisting cause some problems, now there is nationalistic demand for phones in particular. one of the things for apple is they are st

jay powell's the type of guy, if you gives you forward guidance he wants to hit that guidance.orward guidance was essentially a june rate cut. obviously that doesn't look like it will happen in june. it may happen in july, august or september. what they're saying, not me, what they're saying he wants to do one not too close to the election, if they think there is significant progress, remember some of his language they're parsing. you need much more progress to 2% inflation. he said progress, didn't he? did i get that right? liz: uh-huh. >> progress is not 2%. liz: he said multiple times we will get down to 2%. >> we will, but before we start cutting i think he talked about progress. check the language own that. i think that's what they're hanging their hat on. if he sees progress of us going there. liz: if it mixed with a wobbling jobe market then he might cut. >>> we have a wobbling -- liz: did you see the adp number? >> gdp is slowing down. liz: by the way everybody, friday, we get the april's jobs report. that may solidify or change the whole picture. >> we had a lousy gdp

of course jay powell said he couldn't see the stag or the inflation.here are you in the economy in general? to your point the data is conflicting? >> so the economy is hanging in there. if you look at gdp final sales above trend at 3%. we're not really concerned about the economy when it comes to stagflation. we're more concerned about asset markets and the fed's response to that. for now the fed's response is asymmetric, i e. jackie: they will cut if it doesn't grow fast tough or will hike if it remains above trend. if inflation continues to remain above trend? charles: how much longer, everyone feels saying it is okay. in january it was the weather even though i was shocked economists were surprised it got cold in january but anyway if it stays above trend much longer woken the fed even have to acknowledge that or take action? >> well they don't necessarily have to acknowledge it by taking action in a hawkish direction. it can continue to delay the dovish action, could have this with treasury policy could downgrade -- charles: you don't see the fed h

the language from jay powell will be very consequential indeed. does he use the word less and it comes to the expectation around cuts? does he even put the view that a hike is possible on the table? all of those scenarios are being weighed up by the markets but a hawkish pivot seems to be what is expected. u.s. futures currently flat after the losses of 1.6% on the s&p yesterday, the worst drop since january. the dollar strengthening. again, concerned leading up to the meeting on the stickiness of inflation. u.s. futures as i mentioned currently flat. u.s. futures flat. the u.k., one of the few markets in the region that is open today. nasdaq futures pointing lower by .3% despite the decent numbers that came through from amazon with a focus on aws, the cloud part of the business with the ai component. let's flip the board. the two-year yield back above 5%. the dollar strengthening again. and the wrecking ball of the u.s. dollar and in concern and pressure many global fx and currencies. two-year back above 5%. in the oil space you saw a drop in bre

maria: you just heard jay powell comparing the u.s. to global central banks and a global situations, he said we have time because we have growth. well, they have growth. we have growth. it slowed down considerably from last year, 4.9% to 1.6%. did he misspeak there? does he mean we have spending? >> europe is accelerating and we're kind of slowing down. maybe it's too much growth for his taste but on the europe side, they're doing a better job allowing businesses to produce and very importantly their governments are not -- their fiscal deficits are not in the same league as ours. the u.s. is projecting fiscal deficits that will stay 6% of gdp out into the future. so i think the market is beginning to pick that up and say hey, i want to be in the euro, not the u.s. dollar under these circumstances. maria: janet yellen has become real plus call. i want to get -- political. i want to get your take on what she's doing. she's giving a speech in arizona, going to talk about trump being a detriment to democracy, it's an amazing speech you co

did jay powell get it right in the delivery? steven: i think he got it right in the delivery of the message. what amazes me is the bond market's reaction to the message. the message is essentially you thought were going to be considering tightening monetary policy and we are not willing to do that. can you thought we were going to do it because it is an inflation issue and we are not going to do that. so i am a little surprised the long end of the curve has not moved up higher in yield. he keeps telegraphing the message of the committee which is basically they don't want to raise rates anymore. they really, really, really still want to cut rates. the reality is the economy is not letting them do that is the net result is it is higher. annabelle: what was your reaction to powell's messaging? mixo: i think it was very important that powell clarified they are not considering rate hikes. this was one of the big concerns for the market going into the fomc. if you think back a few months it was the november december pivot when the fed

absolutely no one is surprised jay powell did not lift a finger. there will not be another rate cut the shipping john carney and taylor breaks away and on that. palestinian refugees flying in palestinian refugees and giving them green cards and senator tommy tuberville having something to say about it. madison alworth live at columbia with the very latest. thanks for coming. what's cooking out there now in what's going on? reporter: the campus was overrun by protest res and able to clear out happen ill ton hall and video from last night. around 9:00 p.m., nypd entered through hamilton hall through the windows and not # 300 protesters arrested, nypd confirming some of them were not affiliated with the university. in other words outsiders, that did not stop columbia faculty from protesting again todaypr faculty members letter protest that started at 12:00 o'clocotk this afternoon with no cops on campus and from the river to the sea, palestine will be free, we got to talk to students who wern skeptical about outside involvement. all. >> are you a stud

investors are turning attention to chairman jay powell. headlining a busy day of fed speak when he takes the mic at 10:00 a.m. this morning. not before p wwe get the latest read on ppi which is set to tick up from a month ago. consumer pricing are out tomorrow before the opening bell. with that in mind, let's see how europe is shaping up as things are in the early stages of the day so far. arabile gumede is in our london newsroom from across the bopond. arabile, good morning. >> we are in the wait and see mode with the ppi print you have been speaking about. fed chair jay powell is set to speak and the cpi print the market is anticipating tomorrow. you are still seeing a mixed board here in and iaround the flat line. the earnings picture will be of questions with rheinmetall out of germany has been reporting. we are watching out for those numbers. interestingly enough, we have news from the mining sector with anglo american deciding to strategicallyrestructure its business and diffivest from the platinum and even the nickel business is in

sticking to script, jay powell maintains a dovish bias.ager -- from pencil -- prince will asset management they write that it's been fueling market optimism, " also supporting a broadening of the market rally as rate cuts come closer into site." let's go straight into that. broadening the market rally, we heard the small caps got smoked in the month of april. why does it change this month? >> i don't think it necessarily does this month, the key point is that as they come into sight, for small caps to have a sustained rally, you need to know that rate cuts are around the corner and are certain of that. powell was dovish yesterday, but as you look at the strength of the economy, they can't have real confidence that rate cuts are imminent by any means. it will take a couple of months after what we expected for the small-cap to broaden out in materialize. jonathan: lisa mentioned this, talking about embracing the hard landing and not a soft one, andrew said. why the latter and not the former? seema: i believe that there are cracks warming and

the plain speaking fed sheet fed chief himself jay powell. he stopped raising rates and the rates got higher again. they are helping to slow the economy. powell took all of this in and recognized at the speeds he doesn't need to raise interest rates and he's consistent which puts them in a better position. and so we fret about apple, addressed later in the show, we get concerned we may have strong wage growth data on friday's drop report which would cause a group of critics to question his judgment which is why we reversed in the last hour of trade as if once again he doesn't mean what he says. >>> going to gary and my homestead of pennsylvania. gary. >> i'm in the house of shame with bristol-myers over the last couple of months. shed some wisdom on me, love your show. i do here's the problem. they told you of red j.p. morgan the dividend is safe. that was a move out. these prices, i think that the call is on. i don't see anything in the hopper it feels like pfizer. let's go to max who's in illinois. max. >> jimbo. how's it going? >> not bad

priya: jay powell was very clear.and rightfully so, a lot of confidence as the wind will inflation look like it's going back to 2%? they have a lot of confidence that monetary policy is restrictive. they don't know how long they have to keep it there. there was not any talk of rate hikes. he was asked again and again. that is what creates the asymmetry on the front ends. the long end, how much should you get paid to take on duration risk? there is a lot of treasury supply and not a lot of net supply. when we talk about supply we should look at fixed income supply. i would say that that ceiling at the long end is a little higher than the front end because there's more that goes on. it isn't just the fed. even their there is a ceiling. if the fed cuts rates the 6 trillion in money market funds, which is good, will not feel that safe and good because the reinvestment risk, the regret of, i didn't put this money to work when i could get 6%, i think that that starts to factor in. there is a bit of a ceiling on the long end

other day and said we will get interest-rate cut ended up be a month delayed, did he speak with jay powell, talk about not having the independence of the federal reserve, you have a sitting president telling us that interest-rate cut is going to be delayed by a month. go ahead. >> joe biden speaking of long tradition of president johnson and nixon and roosevelt, fdr and truman of course i don't think there's much new here except the reaction and janet yellen and what is new is the dependence of the federal reserve on the treasury department in the fed as we would say in the private sector, this sounds like a provocative word and certainly a disturbing one but every week the fed reports his own finances and is called h for one form and it shows that the fed has a witness without notes and the fed is $123.6 million in the hole to the treasury it is borrowed that much against its mounting operating losses and it pays out five and a half or so and it earns 2% to 3% and no way to get rich the fed is losing a lot of money. the fed shows negative capital. >> is an important point that you make an

maria: welcome back here's aware market ended the week after jay powell said more rate hikes are unlikelyil jobs report showed far fewer jobs added to the economy that expected, the unemployment rate take tiger to 3.9% while february and march revision showed 22000 fewer jobs added than previously reported, meanwhile treasury secretary and former head of the federal reserve janet yellen getting political and the battleground state of arizona on friday making thinly veiled warnings that another donald trump presidency would be a threat to our democracy and economic growth referencing the january 6 the riots and pressing the importance of a politically independent federal reserve, joining me now interest-rate observer founder and editor jim grant. it's always a pleasure to see you, thank you for being here this weekend. >> you are entirely welcome, i would not be any place else. >> article in the journal saying trump's allies are planning the big restructuring the federal reserve, meanwhile president joe biden gave a speech the other day and said we will get interest-rate cut ended up be a

all right, folks, coming up, jay powell, remember him? federal reserve chairman.didn't lift a finger today. i knew it was going to be another rate cut in my lifetime. we'll talk about it with john carney and our own taylor riggs next up on kudlow, stick around. ♪ (♪) (♪) try dietary supplements from voltaren, for healthy joints. ♪("baby" by summer walker)♪ ♪ ♪ book in the hotels.com app to find your perfect somewhere. (♪) the best way to solve a problem is to keep it from happening. (♪) at evernorth, we combine medical and pharmacy data with behavioral health data to identify members in need of care. predicting and treating behavioral health issues quickly... while lowering costs for plan sponsors and members. that's wonder made possible. evernorth health services are you keeping as much of your investment gains as possible? high taxes can erode returns quickly. at creative planning, your portfolio is managed in a tax-efficient manner. it's what you keep that really matters. book your free meeting today at creativeplanning.com. larry: all right, jay powell didn't

hearing from jay powell.eidi: big focus, the number caused a reversal, maybe the data is softening because inflation is very sticky. we are watching what the number has to hold. futures looking like a move upwards. it's 50 minutes from the start of cash trading. nikkei futures looking positive. watching tech stocks we saw mega caps leading the recovery ahead of the inflation number. china futures are soft. hong kong and korea are closed on account of the buddha's birthday. one of the travel despite not seeing a market reaction is how we digest tariffs. are they significant? take a listen to what we heard from president biden and katherine tai. biden: i want fair competition. you're not competing, that's not competition. that's cheating. we've seen damage in america. catherine: we are interested to see how china responds. this is not intention to escalate or confront. it is a set of defensive measures with the investments we make in green and clean technology. annabelle: china blasted the move, vowing to take

last time you were here you said part of the problem was the marshmallow test that jay powell failed.d they would cut before they raised and that it loosened financial conditions. since then, the markets have gotten over the possibility of this year, yet i haven't seen financial conditions tightening. why haven't they? scott: for whatever reason, chair powell keeps talking about cuts. even at the last press conference he says he still believed the next move would be a cut. i actually think that chair powell and janet yellen have both hurt president biden's reelection chances by using financial conditions last november december, where we got a real acceleration economic activity and is worse for consumers. we have gotten a lot of real acceleration of inflation that has now put the fed on pause. probably through at least september through the end of the year. katie: that was scott bessent, t-square group founder cio and ceo. david, good to see you in studio -- in studio again, back from milken. his view on overseeing things when it came to the deficit, what did he have to say about trum

jonathan: fed officials are expected to hold rates steady today, looking for a hawkish pivot from jay powellvid rosenberg writing that hawkish now means relative to market pricing not what it once was and that powell seems to be moving away from his earlier view that the inflation pickup of the first three months of the year was due to statistical aberrations and said that he still believes the inflation deviation for the second half of last year will be corrected and david is with us now. we will get to the aberration in a moment, but i want to start with a hawkish shift. so many of the notes has said the same thing, hawkish chair powell, i think you have nailed it. hawkish relative to what? relative to the last meeting, that's a low bar. to what's priced? that's a different story. how hawkish is this going to be? david: at this stage, for him to sound hawkish enough and move yields higher, he would have to strongly suggest that all of the rate cuts -- and there really is only one left for the year, they are off the table, for sure he's going to be asked at the press scrum about what his vi

listen, wall street desperately wants jay powell and company to -- that money printing machine.n addition to the jobs report that i'm sure you've heard about, the ism services number snapped it 15th month of expansion. it careened into contraction for the first time since december of 2022. the problem though really, it's a tough one, because as that goes into contraction, prices which have been on the move for 83 months are are increasing even at a faster speed. so is while the stock market is cheering the bad with news, the bond market also breathing a sigh of relief. in fact, a big sigh. it looks like a december rate cut back now p at least at the c me, fed watch tool. that's 100 more than we thought coming into today's session. right now the s&p 500, you can see this, folks, we've talked a lot about the 50-day moving average being critical. we're sort of above it right now. i'm i happen to love what i'm seeing right now, my next guest says despite five major policy errors by jay powell, he deserves an, a+ for his e statement this week, let's bring in kip her ridge. you really

lisa: jay powell really did seem to want to cut and take rate hikes off the table. it seemed powell was trying to push back saying it would take longer to feel confident saying they've been surprised by how hot the data is coming in for the first part of this year. do you think he can put this genie back in the bottle? they've heard the dovishness and are not to go back. george: they've managed to do that number of times. there hawkish speakers in the day. if we get a market that overreacts to the softer inflation reading i'm sure to try and instill the idea they are not rushing to cut but i do think the genie is out of the bottle britain you've done it twice, they got the market excited. and you also just qt. the market is looking for any sort of signs of economic weakness to justify earlier cuts. annmarie: you are looking into the weaker than expected jobs report. can you walk us through what you are seeing? george: it's a whole host of features. the early morning signals, there's a whole litany of crack's that are there. if you start looking at the actual annual g

take a listen to what we heard from jay powell in terms of the inflation picture. also despite this being a very nuanced set of tariffs, we could see inflation pressure as well. >> the first quarter in the u.s. was notable for its lack of further progress on inflation. we had higher readings in the first quarter. higher than we expected. we did not expect this to be a smooth road but these were higher than anyone expect. what that has told us is that willing to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work. haidi: let's bring in paul dobson. we really had an inkling from the ppi read. i guess the question is, what kind of a print the market we need to see to see any kind of relief? paul: it seems to me that probably the market is a little bit more tilted towards expecting a more favorable figure here. if you look at the premarket surveys, we are suggesting that more people see a risk-on after this number. it is a psychological thing. we have had three in a row where the inflation figures have come out higher than analyst estimates. some people basically saying

investors after a selloff in stocks yesterday, futures extended the losses this morning ahead of jay powell conference at 2:30 p.m. after stocks sold off yesterday on the hotter than expected employment cost index, wages spiking, yesterday 500-point selloff capping one of the worst month on wall street since september 22. watching jobs april adp number out this morning along with the march number in april jobs report on friday, marketed april marking the worst one of the worst months on wall street since september 2022. we are watching the jobs picture as well as international markets, let's take a look at the european embassies this morning, the s&p 106, cat condo 80 and dax lower by 186. this morning european markets and asian markets also under pressure. in asia a mixed story, we had some gains overnight but they were fractional. the worst performer in japan, nikkei average down. president trump is defined by the courts for violating his gag order he is threatened with jail time if he violates it again, everything you need to know this morning, joining the conversation bullseye ingenuity

they say jay powell is a pretty tough job. so many different fed speakers are giving different projections. you mentioned no projections this meeting, however, in previous meetings, jay powell has gone out of his way to clarify whether those projections still stand or they've been outmoded. he's in a pretty tight spot. >> i think he will acknowledge they're no longer applicable, that the degree of easing that was thought would occur, he'll clarify that that's not sort of the case. but he won't want to send two strong sort of signal some of that's why i think you'll see dovish notes. >> he doesn't update it at all. >> he'll kind of signal that it's not as relevant. the underlying message will be that rates sustained longer, but we don't want to rule out rate cuts. >> you say we haven't quite seen the impact of the higher for longer situation, but q1 gdp, wasn't that a read on higher for longer rates? what other points outside of it? the markets move on every other possible gauge. what outside of the inflation report do you thin

larry: jay powell didn't lift a finger. interest rates stayed unchanged.y will for the rest of the year. let's talk about this. john carney, "breitbart" economics editor, coauthor of the "breitbart business digest, and our own taylor riggs, co-host of "the big money show," my favorite. thank you to both of you. on the market, taylor, the market was up almost 500 points at one point. then it closed i think, the dow plus 97 or something like that. that is pretty big swing down at the close. do you have any idea why? >> john and i like to joke about this the first move is usually always wrong. don't believe what you see the first move. >> i powell, get through the statement, the conference, market digest it. why the s&p and nasdaq rolled over into the red. dow in the green slightly. this is great hikes totally off the table. he thinks policy is restrictive and rate hikes are unlikely but for the most part they will hold. it is higher for longer. if rates are higher for longer, we're not getting cuts anytime soon, i think that's sort of that other hawkishness

jay powell opened the barn door on the dot plots whatever. >> he did.seven, that is what wall street does. he says no rate cuts, feels like a similar mistake, possibly. >> possibly. i still see the possibility we see two to three rate cuts. normally when we see the unemployment rate reflect like this, we have ah-ha moment. charles: is 4.1, 4.2% enough to start cutting though? >> i think it is. remember the floor was 3.4%. we've already moved well off that floor. once you get to the 4.2, 4.3% in matter of months in 2008 it flipped. you started seeing half-point increases in the unemployment rate. they will know enough about history to be prudent, even if they have to launch on september 18th right there ahead of election. charles: feels like they're champing at the bit, 4.1, 4.2, you don't think it is high enough though. >> i don't think it is high enough. charles: would you be surprised if they kid cut based on that? >> i wouldn't be. if the trend is the right direction, inflation is the key metric they need to look for. see the shoe dropped a little it

that would be after this because stocks sky rocketed higher after jay powell's comments yesterday.he market gave back the gains later on in the session. will have more on what jay powell's comments mean treasury yields here with ten-year yield at 4.16%. >> let's go to lindsey and talk at the same time fed chair jay powell said bringing down inflation will take longer than previously expected he cast doubt at the next policy move could be a hike. >> it's unlikely that the next policy rate move would be a hike i say unlikely you know, our policy focus is what i mentioned which is how long to keep policy restrictive. >> that's all fine and good. joining us is stifel chief economist lindsay pietza do you remember the days of mike and drexel, lindsey? do you remember when someone would have a high degree of confidence and when you could arrange financing? do you have a high degree of confidence we know exactly where we are in terms of inflation and rates right now? >> no, i think it is telling that the fed chairman conceded it will likely take longer to gain the confidence and inflation

tomorrow, jay powell. kashkari and bowman wednesday. you have been good on this, how much is the consumer pushing back on pricing or absorbing them? because they are still able to borrow at a time when card spending, where if you look at bank of america, you are seeing people still spend, even on the lower tiers of income bracket. dani: not even just cards, but by now, pay later, people using that has swelled, which tends to be the lower income brackets, by have this nagging feeling. what happens if retail sales data comes in strong but we hear from walmart and home depot, and they tell us what everyone did earlier, couple weeks ago, that the consumer is weak? it feels like we keep getting this conflicting data, and what happens, if at the end of this week, we say we still do not understand where the consumer is? lisa: i have a feeling that is probably a base case. [laughter] what we have seen so far is include something pretty typical during changes in cycle, where people do not understand exactly where things are headed next, and that

this is a problem for jay powell. it's not of his making, but he has to deal with it.f gang rates above 7, dan, and real incomes because of inflation having risen almost not at all during the biden administration, maybe not so much in the last year, but over the full administration, no, on average. you are talking about -- maybe that's the explanation for why the president isn't getting any credit for the jobs market and overall growth. >> yeah. i mean, it's all these disequilibriums in the economy, higher rates for mortgage, higher prices for gasoline. it might come down next month, but the prices that people -- that affect if most voters or directly are staying high and persistent. and the president is just going to get damaged if that per seeses through november. paul: thank you both. >>> still ahead, taxes emerge as a sleeper issue of the 2024 campaign as a president biden vows to let the trump era cuts expire next year. we'll talk to former trumps no economic adviser kevin hassett next. to see and things to do. that's why you choose glucerna to help manage blood s

right away jay powell was pretty smart bit. you can't fight it, you have to admit. the committees 2% inflation objective. yeah, sherlock, we know, right? we cut to the chase. the real excitement came during the q&a part. rate cuts, pausing the rate cuts remember, powell gave us he said three rate cuts. not like wall street pulled it to seven. he said three. he said we don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy until we gain greater confidence. you're the one who said maybe three rate cuts. he talked about the labor market being strong and inflation moving sideways, maybe they're not gaining greater confidence as things that would really push off these rate cuts. restrictiveness. this it sticky point. he was really cool about the whole thing except at this point. restrictiveness. it is pretty clear the policy is restrictive. is it sufficiently restrictive? oh, boy. let the data answer that. i guess we'll let the data answer that. meantime, remember rate hikes, everyone started talking a little bit about rate hikes. it is unlikely the next

even with jay powell bringing home that higher for longer narrative. we are seeing pretty decent sentiment here, big tech rally in the u.s. leading some of those stock sire in the region here in asia as well. it is a little bit of holiday session, hong kong as well of -- as well as curia close. the markets are online, we see decent gains. one of the big stories across the bloomberg, spotlight on china property is starting to see play through when it comes to these key assets like dollar china as well as the aussie dollar watching iron ore. this proposal that beijing is said to be considering to have local governments across the country by out millions of unsold homes. this is according to people familiar with it. this is such a huge ambition and a lot of questions around this if it does come through in terms of the effectiveness of such a policy. let's bring in stephen engle in our china economy editor james major. let me start off with you. let's get to you, james. we have all been covering the highs and lows and really the mostly lows. in the propert

warren buffett praised jay powell for steering the country through the difficult times in years. >> jayowell is a great human being, but a very, very w wise man, but he doesn't control fiscal policy. he sends out a disguised plea for please pay attention. that's where the trouble will be. if we have it. >> as i mentioned before, we will have more from warren buffett later in the show. >>> you can see the boards here in the green. this follows a down week for the yo european markets with the exception of the ftse 100 closed for the bank holiday. the ftse mib is performing better after the services pmi came in better than expected. this is a busy week for europe for central banks including the bank of england and richts bank. when it kamscame to pmi, it is swinging into expansion territory at 50.5. higher than the forecast of 49.9. that is boostsing the french index. the swiss is up .13%. looking at u.s. futures. the dow is up 50 points higher. nasdaq and s&p are fractionally higher. we will continue to watch the markets. let's welcome our next guest. the cio of bank cis. charles, great t

. >> i think wall street neithers uptick in unemployment rate jay powell made it clooer in a couple q&a answers at fomc, that, unemployment that is going to be trigger to start cutting rates listen everyone knows higher for longer in terms of inflation federal government, by the way, fiscal money raising monday boggling i go back to that mirror wild card government we know mined boggling check out aci report employment costs index shocking, not the private sector the private sector is free-fall, this government was up to 4.8% second highest last decade really truly monday boggling jolts report yesterday job option done except government 68,000 government hiring more people paying out outrageous money, how can you see local governments doing this part of american cares act that biden put through, 817 billion dollars is going to state and local governments so far pandemic oversight, where money is coming from, you know one hand, it is a form of manipulation the job numbers fantastic not forever, pay attention to the private sector, pay attention to jobs that are creating, you know real

the calm before the storm that could be jay powell later today.t of outliers. i don't know when the outliers become inliers i don't know whether jay powell is going to affect things. i think the actual data is in charge now, not the fed. the fed's more reactionary >> that's actually a fair point. >> right >> yeah. >> i don't care, really, what he says what he says is going to be determined by that next inflation number, probably there's the ten-year 4.66%. and the two-year, 5.02%. we really need to be renaissance -- we have so many things we talk about here. it's hard, isn't it, to keep it all straight >> it's interesting. >> make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ >>> good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange futures, red fed day, and some high-profile earnings misses. skyworks, marriott, yields are lower as this treasury refunding announcement was in line our road map begins with a monster move for earnings mo

charles: jay powell went out of his way the last two fomc q&a periods, to mention labor.joe, i believe the fed will always 4.1, maybe 4.2 percent unemployment the excuse or reason to start cutting rates. >> they may, charles. it depends where inflation is. the three and six months rates of change have to be at least where they were last november when powell gave the decent pivot. on the labor market if it weakens, certainly that could bring the fed into play much sooner. i believe the labor market is soft but to danielle's point about layoffs, the bls data, third largest government adjustment creating jobs that may or may not exist in the history of net birth death adjustments. if the labor market is weaker than i think, i believe danielle thinks the same thing the payroll numbers will ultimately revised down. charles: these revisions after the fact never move the needle. >> no. they don't. as long as equity market thinks this is any vana, you create a lot of wealth, you keep the party going. >> to joseph's point who cares about the third quarter of 2023 except for the pe

but we see three, 4/10 inflation , it is going to be very difficult for jay powell to make a statement that the next meeting that he's going to get inflation down to 2% and yet there is no need for any rate hikes. it is going to be difficult to call this inflation reversal or lack of progress transitory. come the june meeting and certainly the one after that. so that is going to be the story, i think, for the second part of the spring and into the summer of 2024. >> if you listen to powell's tone and sort of reading to the demeanor and such, he definitely comes off exuding confidence, that he thinks they can pull this off. at this, being the soft landing because he does expect that growth is going to remain strong enough and inflation later in the year, is going to get down closer to the target. you have been looking for a recession. albeit suggesting that it was getting pushed out. you hold to that call, are you changing that? >> i'm on the fans. as to whether we get a recession in 2024, largely because the unemployment rate has been so stable. i would be very concerned if the unemplo

jay powell doesn't need to hold i aq&a session after every meeting. he's chosen to do a highwire act without a net. that's an extremely risky maneuver that he has chosen. jay didn't need to say they're perhaps done raising interest rates last year. employment's incredibly strong as long as employment's strong the fed had no business taking hikes off the table. powell's fix yaitded on all sorts of data points but all he was thinking about was employment because the incredibly robust job market is the whole reason we have inflation in the first place people without jobs are less likely to spend or buy cars or homes. less spending is what allows prices to come down. i wish there with a better way to do p but the only way the fed beats inflation bicausing unemployment o'the big providers of goods, walmart, costco, amazon, with the latter being shunned by federal regulators because the biden administration is re reflexively skeptical of any business they see as too big amazing. without any help from our elected leaders all we can do is accept our fate from

my next guest says jay powell's worst nightmare is cutting rate es and then having to raise them.is here right after this. i'm spending on 3 kids in college. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next. with homes that have been given to, catastrophically injured veterans, first responders, gold star families. for a groundbreaking of their amenity center. every aspect of this building has been designed with accessibility in mind. i saw on the blueprints, it looks amazing. this is going to have a rehabilitation center aquatic therapy, it■s going to have recreational therapy. it■s going to have art therapy. we've got a fitness center. we've got pools that have ramp access for all of our residents to be able to use them. we've got a game room for the kids. we've got an indoor gymnasium, a full size movie theater in here. two outdoor kitchens fully equipped with propane grills and refrigerators we got an entire children's neverland village, got a splash down center for the kids. you name it. we've built it here. until you

hillary kramer's here to share her thoughts and why jay powell is trying his best not to be a villain's that after all. doe ♪ ♪ and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? we just got back from her sister's in napa. who gets married in napa? my daughter. who gets married someplace more expensive? my other daughter. cancun! jamaica!! why can't they use my backyard!! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. can we get out of here? i thought you'd never ask. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real life conversations. empower. what's next. i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like m

lisa: jay powell looked -- laughed at the idea of stagflation.comfortably with that in the services read we got friday? veronica: i do kind of agree with powell, i don't think we are in that environment now. we could see some stickiness to inflation, but something that is more stock at around 2.5-3% inflation, not a bakery acceleration. and typically would expect activity data weakening first and then you would expect that show up in softer pollution. -- inflation. i think the fed officials with think that inflation slowing is coming. jonathan: we are trying to work out whether these are the early signs of companies protecting margin by laying off workers. are we starting to see that develop? veronica: we are seeing signs that businesses are looking to do labor cuts. we had some anecdotes last week and not replacing workers if they happen to leave. we've seen hours worked coming down, all those early signs that businesses are looking to cut labor costs, and layoffs haven't really happened yet, but that would be the last step. jonathan: would you

jobs market we're near record highs again, raeann >> we have seen a pullback again last month and jay powell came out and reassured we weren't going to see, most likely, most rate hikes and earnings have come in strong it is really been supportive of that we have seen the multiple compression with the moves it is interesting to see what those companies are reporting on consumer spending trends right now, the market is in a good spot. we could see more move up from here, especially if we get, you know, an inline cpi print this week. >> home depot and walmart tell us a lot about the sumu.s. consumer how important are those with the market near record highs >> i think the market will react to some degree the these are really large companies with a lot of exposure home depot will give us insight as to what we are seeing on the housing side than discretionary spending which has come down a lot since the pandemic we will see what the improvement trends look like here. walmart is investing a lot in the business they have a value orientation. it is interesting to see how they report. >> not just tha

does jay powell have to move on rates this year? >> they hope they can move on rates.hey really want to cut rates. >> they want to cut rates? >> they want to cut rates. that gives them the ability to say we won the battle against inflation. the fed cannot do anything in june, for example, because inflation does show it's still high and has sticky elements. if they were to lower rates right now with the market up, they may actually exaccelerate e economy too fast and you get inflation rising. i think they're careful. i think they want to cut rates later this year or early next year. >> this is also a market where there are known catalysts happening in the back half of this year. namely a massive u.s. election for the president of the united states. with that back drop, is this a market that can continue higher given what we know about inflation right now? >> i think if you look at what happened from march to april with the 5% dip and we rallied right back up with the inflation number moderated and things looked softer, this is the environment. if we get another pullback

. >> that's a good point you mentioned the two key data points jay powell said we need to be watchingy are looking at every cough and spit with every pmi. you are laughing as we continue to watch it. mark, jobs are one of the key things he looked at here if this report comes in hotter than expected, what are your exhe can expectation? is good news still good news or is good news/bad news? >> any data point that suggests too much strength in the economy or not enough strength, i'm sure the market will react in the short-term we had a lot of fear that inflation is really stalled here now and won't go lower we could also have surprises, positive surprises s s that seh market higher. >> rate cuts are not canceled, but just delayed i want to move on to apple which is part of the big story today part of the magnificent seven stocks is there concern of overconcentration in the big cap tech stocks? is this still a safe place to put money? >> i think the way we look at it is in our base case where we see the inflation picture improving and rates start to be cut, we expect the rally to broaden

what do you think is a key driver at this point, earnings or what jay powell does?: earnings are definitely the most important driver unless the fed makes a very extreme move in either direction. right now the fed is staying balanced on inflation data and employment. i think if they were to shock the market than yes, the market be dependent on fed moves. but as long as they stay within these broadly defined guardrails and keep following the data, earnings are going to matter. that is what you saw after the close also as the semi earnings came in and that was the conversation you are having earlier. if you look at the magnificent 7 in the u.s. has been up 60% in the last 12 months, that has largely been driven by earnings growth of more than 40%. earnings are definitely driving markets at this point. haidi: when do we start to see a deeper impact with higher for longer? we are seeing the difference in the broader economy between goods and services and aspects that are benefiting and those that are not. do you expect to see that playing through more in the corporate?

maria: point out, that jay powell removed that line said banking sector is sound. >> took that out still have questions of bank today, of course, to deal with jpmorgan we are watching banking sector soft hold in broader economy cheryl i wonder how you feel about reaction to this report. i think market needed better than this i think market needing a bigger signal to say inflation is getting under control go back for a second we had three holt months, january, february, march all elevated inflation hotter than expected here we have april, you reported a minute ago that it was month-to-month better than expected up 3/10 versus up 4/10 year-over-year same 3.4 versus estimate 3 point 4% that is it sends dow industrials up 150 points i am not buying it if in a adams's shows he would be a seller right here what do you say. cheryl: i agree with you market isn't open i am wondering what close is going to look this might be one-off for april i am in camp -- this stephanie pomboy the favorite line with, amazon not a consumer products company stuck in my head market gaining t