fed chairman jay powell has two days of testimony before the senate and house. ll is expected to be questioned about the economy as he considers the softer than expected jobs report on friday. the chairman said the jobs data is a major consideration when it comes to possible cuts. >> i would also like to see the labor market remain strong. we said if we saw the labor market unexpectedly weakening, that is something that could call for a reaction. >> along with jay powell, we will hear from treasury secretary janet yellen on the state of the international banking system at 10:00 a.m. eastern. we have president biden hosting the nato summit as investors weigh the viability of the candidacy against former president trump. joining me now is gina smilak. >> thanks for having me. >> you, of course, have been writing so much about this. i want to go to one point in your most recent story. the som rule is a market uptick on unemployment may be a sign of recession. when we talk about jay powell and the fmoc, do they see unemployment going from record lows to 4.1%, is that

today from jay powell.o-dollar in and reflection in terms of the french politics as the socialist reach out to macron's party, may be some kind of coalition. brent, $84 a barrel. gold posting gains at 2667. . avril hong with the data out of china in focus. avril: absolutely. we are seeing that is the driver of sentiment on the mainland benchmark csi 300 is pretty flat after the china cpi came in lower-than-expected, just highlighting how those deflationary pressures persist in asia's largest economy. potentially also leading to further expectations of a rate cut from the pboc in september when the federal reserve could also move. and this is against the backdrop of going into next, where there's going to be a big meeting with the top leaders of china and not much is expected in the way of stimulus from that third -- this is where you see the mainland movement. elsewhere in the region, given how powell sounding somewhat dovish, given how he flagged risk to the u.s. labor market but not getting anything in te

jay powell speaking in portugal.ay powell: we want to be more confident that inflation is moving down before we start the process of -- of reducing our policy, loosening policy. because the u.s. economy is strong we have the ability to get this right. tom: indeed. let's bring in mark greenfield for the -- mark cranfield. mark: he may well himself have an idea that he wants to lower interest rates but you can see traders are not taking notice as avril showed. dollar-yen is stronger so certainly the strength of the u.s. dollar does not suggests that rates are coming down. they seem relaxed, they believe in a strong dollar. yields are not down a great deal and it is no wonder because jerome powell sounded confident inflation would come down into the target range and we were thinking about a rate that. that did not happen, inflation numbers came in and people are thinking until we see hard evidence in the cpi we will not get excited, even though powell macy's something traders have not seen. in the background you've got

jay powell is set to speak at the ecb annual summit of central bankers. isen will be there and monitoring the discussion with powell. sara, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank, from sintra, portugal. it is a fascinating time to talk to central bankers because they are all moving a different speeds. they all pretty much hiked interest rates in the past few years to fight inflation. now comes the exit. europe cut rates in june and as we heard from the ecb president christine lagarde last night, she is not promising the markets necessarily they are going to keep cutting. listen to what she said. >> it will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above target inflation have passed. the strong labor market means that we can take time to gather new information, but we also need to be mindful of the fact that the growth outlook remains uncertain. all of this underpins our determination to continue to be data dependent and take our policy decisions meeting by meeting. >> reporter: the signal there after a cut in june,

he says jay powell is safe which is important because he has talked about replacing jay powell. now saying he would let him finish his term, talking about interest rate policy. he is saying they should not cut rates before the election. there may be a political readthrough but he is saying jay powell should finish the term. jay powell cut interest rates off the back of the introduction of tariff policy from the trump administration. tom: he is comfortable keeping him if jay powell does a good job. kriti gupta with the break down if he wins in november. thank you. elon musk will relocate headquarters for x and spacex. he said the announcement is frustration with a long related to transgendered children. elon musk endorsed donald trump and pledged tens of millions of dollars to his campaign every month. russia and ukraine are swapping prisoners in a deal facilitated by the uae, the sixth managed by the goal state. if it goes ahead as planned. they have swapped almost 1400 prisoners so far this year. hsbc appointed giorgio henry as the new chief executive, picking insiders for the

here is jay powell. >> good afternoon. and i remain squarely focused on achieving our dual man tate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the american people. our con has made considerable progress towards both goals the past two years of the labor market hats come into better balance and the unemployment rate remains low. inflation from a peak 7% to 2.5s. we're strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal in support of a strong economy that benefits everyone. today the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. we are maintaining our restrictive stance of monetary policy in order to keep demand in line with supply and reduce inflationary pressures. we are attentive to risk on both sides of our dual mandate and i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic development. recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. gdp growth moderated to 2.1% in

that is the testimony by jay powell in congress. eyes on what sort of rhetoric he will choose to give congress members today. of course, we heard from him not too long ago in sintra where he said the west needs to cut deficits sooner rather than later. i'm highlighting that comment because we know the fed is very careful to not sound political as we approach the u.s. election in a couple of months time. the fact he chose to address their concerns on the fiscal position of the united states is a position who is in the white house. i want to take a look at movements in europe. stoxx 600 is trading slightly lower. it is a mixed picture across the boards in europe. however, i have take you to the cac 40 in france. down at this stage .4%. yesterday, the cac 40 dropped 0.76% 0.6% on the day as investors are looking at the election and the outcome was not the worst possible scenario. we did not see the absolute majority for the far right or the far left. the hung parliament is still now posing questions about the future fiscal position for

the testimony for jay powell and the inflation data out of the u.s. tropical storm beryl is barreling down on texas. french markets on edge. the new popular front secured the most seats in sunday's parliamentary elections. macron's party came second. the far right national party had been forecast win but in a shock reversal came in third. let's get more on what fed in to the results. it is unprecedented for france and the moves last week played in the favor of meg ryan to the detriment of the national rally. you could hear how angry some of their leaders were. how do we get there and where do we go from here? >> some were skeptical that the national front would have a rally. in the end you had more than 200 candidates -- a lot of left and macron supporters voted for the candidate facing the national rally and in the end the national rally did pretty poorly. first came the new popular front. what is interesting to look at exactly how many members of the far left are within the new popular front. about 75 out of 180. we will see at the new popular front

we're taking a look at the bond market with fed chair jay powell return to capitol hill after what saw-opening day in the senate. the bench marc, 4.28, basically the same level we saw yesterday. on capitol hill, powell telling lawmakers the central bank is increasingly aware of the potential risk to the rate market as it considers its first rate cut since 2020, but adding the job market is a key factor to achieving a soft landing. >> the economy has made considerable progress toward the fed's 2% inflation goal, and labor market conditions have cooled while remaining strong. reflecting these developments, the risk to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balance. >> just to reminder, powell's testimony begins at 10:00 a.m. eastern time this today. >>> we're watching oil, coming off its worst day in more than two weeks. wti up almost half a percent. bent crude, the international bench mac up about a third of a per sem. that's your morning setup. we want to turn to other big setups in d.c. besides jay powell and capitol hill. biden is kicking off the nato sum

later in the week, we have cpi and jay powell on capitol hill.ow do you see the markets moving today with all this different inputs either behind us or coming up ahead of us? >> today, i would expect unless there is something that trickles over from europe here in the u.s., i would expect the data to be fairly benign. likely at the top of the show, there is a little pressure, but i don't expect anything significant today. of course, we get to later in the week and if there is a surprise one way or the other relating to cpi, that could be a different story. >> jay powell testifies for two days. we heard from him fairly recently. he was over in europe with sarah eisen. i know this is something you were looking at with ism coming in softer than expected and in contraction territory. >> absolutely. i think the ism coming in softer, that means it is moving in the right direction. i think he will continue to allude to the fact that the rate cut is coming. will that come in september? not sure. i think people are saying what the cpi does later this week

you've got to let jay powell do what jay powell is doing.david rubenstein did earlier, cnbc did a good job, he has done a good job getting to this soft landing. inflation has to stay under control. those who are most vulnerable suffer most from inflation. so, leave the fed alone and if you leave the fed alone, i think this inflationary environment and low interest rate environment stays with us for a long time. i do worry about the long-term debt. that has to be addressed in congress and we have to have responsible curbs on spending. we can't keep kdoing what we're doing. >> if you think short rates are going to drop and long rates stay where they are, then, you know, or go up a little bit, i think that's still a really good recipe for stocks. you get a steepening yield curve. that's why you see banks doing very well. stocks are going to like this back drop. lower taxes, lower regulation, you know, the prospects of, you know, the spending continuing. i think that's, you know, where it's at. i think it's not just going to be your top seven, y

markets in the green, more momentum continuing after another record close yesterday for the s&p 500, jay powelldmitting to the senate banking committee that the labor market has slowed in holding rates higher for longer could jeopardize economic growth, powell facing the house financial services committee this morning. we have the preview. key inflation dropping this week in the june cpi and ppi on friday with the big banks kicking off second-quarter earnings season, stay with us with a preview on that. european markets are higher in the eurozone despite the fact that the new french parliament is calling for a 90% tax on annual income about 400,000 euro. we are talking about the incredible tax in france. in asia overnight fractional moves across the board, joining the conversation bullseye american ingenuity fund manager adam johnson, managing director mitch rochelle and "fox & friends" cohost todd piro. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. maria: it's time for the hot topic of hour. former president trump rally with tens of thousands of supporters in florida weighing in on the disarray

think about the inflation data. >> jay powell comments. >> exactly. the jay powell comments. are coming into view and the goldiloocks is rea. people are buying equityetfs. people are taking a sunnier outlook on this market. >> we are seeing a broadening of the rally. small caps and transports with positive days. what does that say about the future of the rally? a lot of people wanted the market to broaden out. do you believe it can happen? >> this is too concentrated and we see the big rotation and everyone is caught off guard all of a sudden because there is a huge divergence with the nasdaq and the russell. it is wild. up 7% in the last week alone. i do think it sis a positive sin with the economic sectors. think the banks and small caps. if rates do go down, those could get another boost. investors i have been talking to say this could be painful in the short-term, but it is a positive sign. it reminds me what happened after trump was elected in 2016. you and i -- >> you were the first person after the trump trade. you came on talking about the trump trade. the broadening

fed chair jay powell. we're going to talk about jay powell in the markets.hat happened to greenspan? in the next hour, representative patrick mchenry -- when i say ati sound patriotic. what he expects to hear from fed chair jay powell today. "squawk box" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to pari

maria: we were to look interest rates ahead of the federal reserve chairman jay powell, after jay powellweek, he saw lawmakers in the house financial services testimony that the fed doesn't need inflation but though the 2% rate before cutting interest rates. watch. >> is it fair the pcm decks below 2% once in the coming months in order to contemplate every cut? >> no that is not fair to say, you don't want to wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2% because inflation has a certain momentum you wouldn't wait that long if you waited that long you probably waited too long because inflation will be moving downward and go well below 2% which we don't want. maria: emphasize the central bank will cut interest rates when ready in its regardless of the political calendar, watch this. >> you pride yourself in the independence, do members of the fomc acknowledge that a rate cut in september could be viewed as political just 30 - 60 days before an election. >> undertaking is to make decisions when and as they need to be made based on the data, the incoming data involving the outlook and the

jay powell will take the lectern at 2:30. let's continue the conversation on fed with kim friedricks. a little bit more. are you comfortable with what the market is pricing in in terms of a rate cut in september? some are talking about two cuts for 2024? kim: that seems very reasonable at this point. the fed has set themselves up in a perfect situation. they signal everything today and tell the world we are getting ready to go. they have their entirety retreao do and then in september they can come out at actually get started. they can make one move in september, another in november and wait to see how the entire election plays out. see how the third quarter numbers role in. see what is actually happening with the economy before they start making decisions about what they are going to do in december and into '25. scarlet: as mike reminded us there is no statement of economic projections this time around, that comes in september. jay powell said they do not provide a lot of forecasting value because it is a snapshot of a momen

>> i don't think -- jay powell i don't think is going to care about what is going on in politics, theters, yes, it is not that 2% but pce, 2.6%, trending down it was stuck for the first quarter, now we're starting to see down ticks if that continues to tick lower that is what they want see for soft landing narrative this is what it is. here is the problem. if he doesn't start to corrupt by say september is he too late because unemployment starting to get away. michael: i would say jobs number a tremendous amount of cover disaster tgs revisions, and you look at half all job growth last couple years comes from birth death adjustment nobody knows if real revision lower after beats, 1.8 million new part time jobs down 1.6 full-time, are 4.6 million full-time jobs really, really ugly number yrunder the surface. >> great to see you we will see you soon, of course, we are taking a quick break we'll be right back. stay with us. stay with us. . [water flowing] [water flowing] [phone dings] oh my god. what? the host is coming back. (♪) [birds chirping] [water flowing] meanwhile, at a vrbo... [b

jay powell, the testimony that mark was walking us through and yellen will testify as well. investors will be scrutinizing the language from both of those key participants. later in the day the u.s. will be auctioning off a three year bond so we will test the appetite for u.s. debt. sovereign debt has been well-received. a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going. terminal subscribers can go to dayb on the terminal to get a roundup of some of the key stories including joe biden. as the debate rages around his position leading up to the election in november. the u.k. parliament sits for the first time since the elections. we have a preview of what to expect for the labour party's first 100 days in office. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "daybreak: europe." the u.k. parliament sits today with a fresh group of lawmakers. yesterday the chancellor rachel reeves vowed to get written building again as she revealed a slew of planning reforms. >> sustained economic growth is the only route to the improved prosperity that our country n

listen all eyes are always on jay powell.u with respect when do you think they should start cutting? >> should or will two different things? the white to the eyes, first of all, i think powell did a great job this week. i'm no fan of the fed. i've been critical of jay and his predecessor. charles: he was swats them away. >> he did a really good job especially with warren. he pushed back when he needed to push back. i think the problem is almost whatever the fed's going to do now they have gone too far, it is probably too rate. unemployment is 4%. once, once it doesn't go below for a couple months the genie is out of the bottle. maybe we're headed toward zero growth, possibly negative growth. charles: right. >> i think they will start in september. should they start in september. is different story. i think they will start in september. charles: cries teen, people saying 4.1 is not big number. pace was going up. it was already a surprise. the pace is going up a little bit almost every time the reports come out. where do you se

markets are hearing part of what jay powell is saying. the other is, it needs more evidence before the fed is prepared to move. is there a disconnect in terms of what the market thinks about when easing is going to happen? mark: he will have more trouble in convincing traders that he can really get interest rates down and inflation is doing what it wants. it's been a stop star year. right at the beginning of the year, jerome powell being very optimistic on the outlook for inflation coming down into the target zone. it sounded as though he was ready to push the federal reserve towards pretty early interest rate cuts. at one stage, we were talking about rate cuts in the first quarter of this year. that was thoroughly upended when we had inflation numbers that were far too hot from the fed's point of view. there's been a lot of backtracking since then. the dot plots of change. we only have one priced in for this year. although jerome powell is probably encouraged, traders are going to need a lot more convincing that he can really push the co

jay powell meantime insisting the fed is not political again. does that mean september rate cuts are possible? and it has been said, a house divided cannot stand against itself. so how united or divided do you believe this country is right now? i love to hear your thoughts? tweet me @cvpayne. meanwhile i will can kayleigh mcenany on the solutions to bring our country together. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right, folks, for investors this is a crucial moment to consider portfolio adjustments as a potential trump presidency could have a significant impact on the stock market. interestingly, there are signs that the so-called trump trade has already been on the way. of course the trump trade is open to interpretation. we're going to explore that on today's show. before we get to november, remember this market was already celebrating a potential september cut at the heightened probability that the fed could cut, some were saying some traders were saying as much as 50 basis points, half a percent here. so that already

he said that if elected, he would allow chairman jay powell to finish out his term, which ends in 2026icy. >>> and, the nba's bort of governors approving new rights deals with amazon, prime video and nbc. owned by parent company of cnbc, which is comcast. the league is now a step closer to new 11-year agreements worth more than $75 billion. potentially the final step in that process giving warner brothers discovery a five-day window to match one of those deals. unclear when that window would begin. new contracts begin in the 2025-26 season. >>> this morning's big earnings report, johnson & johnson. beating profit and revenue expectations and raising its operational performance guidance for 2024 by 5 cents a share. thanks to government-driven accounting changes, johnson & johnson is lowering what it wants to expect. joe wolk joins us earlier to explain. >> left to its own devices, thrown a lot at analysts with some acquisition costs, taken guidance up by about a nickel overall. the s.e.c. changed guidance probably about 18 months ago with respect to what you can classify as special item

a year or two ago jay powell was saying that it was worthwhile to stick with it until inflation got down if that involved some pain. that was widely taken as, for some rising unemployment the risk of recession. now he says singing a different tune seems preparing markets for idea might easy policy out of concerns about labor market even if inflation isn't down to 2% that would be a risky course, that would raise the risk of a second surge in inflation i there i. maria: this is a really important point that you just made, mark tepper jump in this is a conversation we are having every day whether or not federal reserve is going to xrut interest rates before the 2% target is felt, does it as mr. lacker is saying potentially mean that we could see another wave of inflation too soon. mark: the question when talking about 2% target, in my opinion, not going to wait until 2% year-over-year, if they can get 0.1, 0.2 month-over-month reeking they're going to feel think of accomplished what they need to accomplish from inflation standpoint, but then the question is what did they break in the proce

what are you expecting especially when it comes to that jay powell news conference? i will signal a cut is likely coming in september, but what we should not forget is we still have two more cpi releases before september 18th ftc meeting. yes, inflation has come down, and that's been a significant improvement in terms of when we will begin to get cuts, but if we have two more, i think the signal today will be if inflation continues to move down, then we are likely to cut interest rates in september. >> gunjan, coming over to you, your new piece. the general consensus is the idea of a dovish fed is good. what are the fireworks that people are expected? >> thanks, frank. i mean, we have seen a ton of turbulence in the market throughout the month. and traders are expecting us to end things off with a bang. for example, pricing in the stock options market are indicating people are positioning a 2% move after the meeting. that's double the move we've seen since 2010 according to bank of america data. we're also seeing a similar dynamic in the russell. what it shows you is

jay powell is getting more confident.he neutral rate in terms of interest >> european stocks fell more than 1%. we've seen, european futures pointing to games and a focus on the u.s. 10 year, more than two cuts with yields down. 108 on the euro-dollar. brent at 3/10 of 1% and closing in on record levels, tied into expectations. donald trump picked j.d. vance as his vice presidential nominee after deliberation and thought. we report from milwaukee. >> we are in milwaukee where president trump announced his pick, j.d. vance from ohio and our audience might know him as a member of the banking committee. if we look at legislation a gives you a sense of the type of politician he has been. he focused on workers rights and vance is 39 years old. he aligns with former president trump. here in milwaukee delegates voted to make trump the republican nominee. and we know whether trump will take over. tom: this signals a break with the republican party old guard. speaking in milwaukee, the u.s. is stressed -- stretched too thin. >> we

jay powell took a lot of heat today.n the fed begins these rate hiking cycles, want to slow the economy, hurt the economy, focus is on housing, sort to break the wealth effect. how comfortable are you? if the federal government shouldn't be resolved how far should the federal reserve about to break the housing market? >> ultimately the federal reserve should focus on containing inflation. if they set their policy towards the breaking the housing market that will probably have unintended side-effects. the good news the inflation rate has at least slowed. prices are still high but the inflation rate has slowed. we'll have to see how many rate cuts before the end of the year. the betting markets are saying two rate cuts before the end of the year. if the fed does that, it would bring mortgage rates down from seven to 6 1/2%. maybe we see a 6 1/2% mortgage rate at the end of the year. i will not bet on that 100%. if we do that there will be some improved affordability for buyers but probably not enough to bring buyers into t

basically saying look to what jay powell says.xpected to be much more dovish which evidently, nobody cares about this week. how much do you agree with that? is there this sense that the weakening in the market has sufficiently spooked fed officials to push them to maybe even consider an earlier rate cut? >> if you look at the commentary over the last six months, it really has surprised this dovish side of things beginning at the end of last year, confirming the early part of the first quarter when we are willing to overlook some of the hotter data. i think that this that has historically wanted to limit dovish. even though you've got important dovish voices, the whole board moves with the chair in my mind. annmarie:annmarie: as john is mentioning, politics very much front and center in you see an increasing number estimates saying that either candidate -- for potential increase the deficit depending on the composition of congress. is that something you're coalescing around. the benchmark for >> all assets around the world. >>we ha

. >>> coming up, fed chair jay powell set to testify before the senate banking committee this morningwith the ranking member, tim scott of carolina. >>> but first, bank of america, from a neutral to a net weight, and then go higher, it sees less chance that the b of a stock will underperform. that stock is up in the pre-maety strk bju under a percent. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley >>> hackers getting rich off of cryptocurrency this year. a report from blockchain research firm trm labs says that hackers stole close to $1.4 billion in digital coins between january and the end of last month, and that's more than twice the amount taken in the same pe

it is the fed rate decision for the by the press conference with jay powell.et bets of a september cut? the person of the cycle? coming up, we will speak to ubs, what she is inspecting from the fed later today. how that ties into the ecb decision-making and lookahead to the bank of england which is finally barest in terms of their decision tomorrow. stay with us for the economic analysis, that is next. this is bloomberg. his after the boj, u.s. federal reserve is up next. bloomberg intelligence expecting a holder today with a hint that a september cut. not just on the fed but the boe which meets its decision tomorrow. take you very much for joining us bright and early this wednesday morning. talk to us about the fed and how it informs the taking of the ecb. there is the overhang of the fed. if they do not signal that september is in the cards, if the language is not there, does that handicap ecb in terms of its next cut? does that derail expectations around september for the ecb? if we try to take a step back and look at our quarrel, we have been is making the

jay powell talked about that today without making a value judgment. one thing we are seeing is the birth rate among americans going down. we have fewer people entering the labor force on a regular basis so for the u.s. it helps to have immigrants and leaving the value judgment of whether they are legal or illegal, the more immigrants we have the better the labor market can do because more people equals in theory more productivity. it is an ongoing interesting issue for economists and certainly a political issue in washington. katie: i'm going to give you the last word. we have been talking about cpi. we get another release this week to jp morgan finds the s&p 500 is poised to move .9% in either way. how important is this for the bond market? how much potential for volatility is there? liz: i think it is very important because this more data chairman powell wants to see front and center is cpi. inflation as he said last week, we are seeing disinflation come but they want to see more. if somehow this is a surprise stronger than expected cpi, i think in

wall street led by technology, the dow 46, nasdaq of lebanon s&p upper fraction in reaction to jay powelling the september cut is unlikely. a big day for job, jobless claims out the june jobs report is would come out on friday and take a look at oil prices, this is something were watching closely, were higher fractionally with the contract but the biden administration has just sold a million barrels from the spr more selling, european markets are in the green, the cac 40 and the doctoral higher. in asia markets higher in the shanghai composite the only weak spot, joining the conversation bullseye american ingenuity fund adam johnson and former trump administration tricia mcla mclaughlin, "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. cheryl: it is time for the hot topic of hour, bad news for biden keeps coming a new poll shows vice president, virus pulling better than biden with 45% to trump's 47%, it calls for the president to step aside coming from every angle, house democrats junior golden in the way god it on bite inside a vial calling for him not to run as reuters is reporting 25 democr

minimum i think jay powell has to tee it up on the july 31 meeting for september.nd further weakness i would not mind a 25 basis point cut this month. >> a bond market does not seem too terribly worried about the sustainability of the federal debt and deficits. are you worried? >> and no i am actually not worried. i looked at the debt trends they do not really get bad for quite a few years. mid- 2030s is when they start ramping up. right now if you take a look at the debt to gdp ratio and take out the foreign held debt which is holding steady we are really quite in the middle range of all other countries in the world and still well below where we were at the end of world war ii. i'm not saying i'm happy with a deficit but i do not think there's going to be a major factor for yields in the next few years. >> stock market concentration is the highest in decades a lot of artificial intelligence is that a good thing or a bad thing going forward? >> i like ai. it's very promising. but i do not like all of that concentration. we have had one of the biggest gaps between t

the jay powell press conference tomorrow. no cuts. no moves expected this time.ot of expectations for a cut coming up in september. is there still time for the investors to position your portfolio with the expected cut in september -- is that already priced in? >> it seems it is. markets are historically pretty efficient. i would not bet on the efficiency of the markets. you may need to rebalance your portfolio if you have not already. i think moments like this are a good reminder. if you moved allocation between stocks and bonds too heavily, take the time to rebalance and make sure your goals are where they need to be. when you look at what's happened, equities run ahead. make sure the fixed income part of the portfolio makes sense. yields attractive and from the total returnperspective, i would not forget fixed income. >> between the public and private markets, you believe interval funds are one way to get into the private markets and find that intersection. i want to ask why right now? the equity markets with volatility recently. why are you bullish on the ide

yelena: i think jay powell will probably make a big announcement at the jackson home at the end of august. how will the change affect the trajectory of real interest rates? i agree. the fed needs to push nominal is stressed right -- interest rates a bit lower so real interest rates don't make more strain for the economy. that's key here. this cutting cycle -- it's not an easing cycle -- it's a cutting cycle. and the fed will need to do that in order to not over tighten. it will be different, most likely, from the past cutting cycles that were driven by weakening economy into a recession. that is probably not what we are looking for. scarlet: important distinction. thank you yelena shulyatyeva senior u.s. economist atbnp paribas. coming up, a rap on nato. richard hass joins us to discuss the future of the alliance and geopolitical tensions as everybody watches president biden to see how he fares at the summit. this is bloomberg. waterproof leather. breathable fabrics. spikeless traction. the most comfortable golf shoe in the game. grab your pair today at olukai.com. scarlet: paying attenti

this comes as jay powell said going slower may allow the fed to go further. the fed has to cut this year to keep that consumer and small companies afloat according to our guest. >>> consumer is still traveling. wyndham hotels and resorts betting on that to continue. the ceo will join us live ahead with what he's seeing. >>> and then there's housing. if you're not buying a home because it's too expensive right now, you can still buy into the housing trade. we have a unique way to do that. before all of that, though, let's start with today's markets. mike santoli has the honors. >> yeah, kelly, broad market in levitation mode. the s&p 500, crossing above the 5600 level for the first time. it's yet again ratifying that all bit of wall street wisdom, never short a dull market. the index has been dull the past two days. minimal moves, inkru mental new highs but resumed the same angle we had in the first quarter. so obviously up 17.5% on year-to-date basis. it's a very good year, acting like a bull market. however, the critique is it's been concentrated in those ga

that part of the world ahead of jay powell. his testimony on capitol hill. u.s.ven after we clock in a 35th record high. there we go, for the year to be more specific. thank you for joining us. bloomberg markets: asia horizons middle east in africa up next. ♪ awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next. (aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo. i struggled with weight loss and weight gain my entire life. with all the yo-yo dieting i did in the past, i would lose 20, 30, 50 pounds just to gain them over and over again. in one ye

i would be curious if jay powell gets asked about it to hear what he thinks. the fed made a big deal out of jolts telling them the labor market was tight. katie: let's get right back to that fed chair jerome powell ecb president christine lagarde in brazil's central bank governors speaking on a panel in portugal. >> it doesn't seem like the president will reappoint you. do you worry about the independence of the central bank ? pres. compos: i was never up for reappointment regardless of who won the election. want to help design the independence law i tried not to have that in the law. and the reason was i did not want the president of the central bank to have anything to been his need to have any kind of reelection. -- bend his knee to have any kind of reelection. there is a risk premium in the curve. it has been elevated in the last couple of weeks as to when uncertainty of what happens when the next leadership for the next team takes place. in brazil, it is done slowly. the president can change two directors every. with eight directors plus the president. ri

the june cpi number is out in 90 minutes' time, it could be a market mover as jay powell says he will not wait until inflation falls below 2% to cut rates. the word on wall street panel is coming up next. don't miss it. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ maria and julio thought their life would never slow down. then one day, it finally did. you were made to find inner peace. we were made to track flight prices to paradise. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part

lisa: people have been talking about this inflection point in jay powell -- the potential is we have 5 signal to them time is up? andrew: it does raise concerns and that is what we heard from chair powell. we have been in an environment were risks were unbalanced and it was about upside risk to inflation. it is about upside risks you need to raise rates. now there is a balancing act that has played out were fed officials are thinking about upside risk to inflation but downside risk to the labor market. austin goolsby more dovish. we heard him say i've seen warning signs. he will see that 155,000 and say we should have cut in june. i do not think powell will be there but 155,000 is the kind of number where things are slowing down and we are getting the balance between employment mandate in inflation mandate. as early as the fomc meeting we should be seeing that read towards the rate cut. jonathan: a lot of people are using the word normalization. let's go to where we are today. let's get to jobless claims. can you walk me through what is normal post-pandemic and the danger zone? andrew

are you going to hear the same thing from jay powell?open to a sooner move? jonathan: these guys are shadowing politicians, including france over the last couple of years, we have all been thinking about what a trump presidency could mean for the market. how different are things in 2024 versus 2017? the playbook with the economy recovering from the manufacturing commodity downturn of 2015, inflation was not a headwind for consumers. 16 versus 2014 is very important. lisa: karen dawson had the same tone yesterday when she came on the show. saying that basically when you take a look at the unemployment rate, when you began, the wage growth had growing support and was completely different from where we are to now. inflation being more of a consideration with tax cuts if extended, it won't abide the same sugar as everyone else in 2016. these are the reasons people are saying there won't be the same economic to offset potential headwinds created by tariffs, as well as the other protectionist measures. jonathan: if it had been bond unfriendly,

charles: that is why jay powell is trying to kick that to the curb.at, who? thises report on friday, what are you expecting? >> we've seen the highest four-week average in initial jobless claims in the near term fall during the survey week. we were talking about the bureau of labor lable statistics taking that survey but we did have a higher print. i would expect you see disappointment in terms of non-farm payrolls that will be reported and another uptick in the employment rate, charles. charles: you've been focused lately, looking at your work on the auto industry what are you seeing? more importantly, how much of a proxy is that for the general economy? >> well, big-ticket items are always a huge tell. we have seen, we've actually seen equity analysts take down homebuilders today. we're seeing some sour notes out of auto sales today. this is a biggie, right? we've got the full quarter and we get a more robust report from automakers about the quarter ended june 30 but we're definitely seeing some weakness here, charles. i think this is indicative of

all of this jay powell testifying in front of the inking committee this morning begin that to any oftern the house financials committee tomorrow. key inflation the june cpi and ppi out thursday and friday, european markets a mix take a look at the eurozone with the s&p 100 in london again of six points but the cac and the dax index both negative this morning. in asian markets finish mostly higher, take a look at the asian embassies overnight, the big movers as you can see in japan and china, the nikkei average 2%, shanghai wanted a quarter percent. 20 the conversation strategic wealth partners ceo mark tepper and former new york state homeland security advisor michael balboni, "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. maria: it is time for the hot topic of hour. all eyes on president biden today as he kicks off the nato summit in washington, d.c. house democrats are holding up restricted caucus meeting as calls for the president to step aside continue to rise. the senate democrats will meet today for the first time since the debate and president biden is ripping up his efforts to s

mike: it will be jay powell talking to the house and senate.ibilities are good, which he may say. the timing, does he give us a sense that it is september? after him we get the cpi, which is important in the market deciding whether it is september or not. all of these events could be overshadowed by the biden drama, which will be into the markets if something happened. i expect powell might get asked about that during the next two days. he will duck under the table, i'm sure. lisa: i find that fascinating. i wonder if any congress member could follow up and say could you give us a sense of how you weigh your dual mandate? unemployment and the jobs picture or whether you are looking more at the inflation aspect of this. do you still pledge to bring down inflation to 2% at the expense of jobs if it comes at the expense of some of these policies? mike: you just repeat what he has been saying. it is the basics for them. they are committed to 2%. they will keep going until they get there. it doesn't mean they can't cut rates before that. they have n

and, by the way, i'm going to add one thing about jay powell.ation data back to 1936, charles, we've never seen the prices of goods in the united states of america fall at the pace that they're falling right now. the fastest in history back to 1936. jay powell's powerless right now to accomplish anything on the inflation front, the types of inflation that are really pound being american households -- charles: right. he can't do anything about it. >> it's time for him to movement. charles: can't it actually get worse though? you know, i'm looking at ppi yesterday, then the month before. ppi's gone in the wrong direction. >> ppi's going in the wrong direction, but it really is more of a reflection of services that company ares are paying for. -- companies are paying for. if you look inside, health care came down dramatically, and that's going to influence the core or pce which the fed if follows the most closely. they'll have that data in hand when they meet on july the 31st. charles: market's cheering three rate cuts rights now. is this premature

annmarie: and when it comes to jay powell, it will be highly clinical. representative barr said wants chair powell to rerate the fed will be -- night he is the house financial services committee, he says it will not be perceived as apolitical. it has gotten very tense in terms of whether or not the fed cuts in september. it is becoming more intense on capitol hill, given the dire straits the president is in. jonathan: let's start with equity futures. on the s&p 500 posited by 0.2%. make it a six, and we will equal the longest daily winning streak of the year so far in the s&p 500 paid in the bond market, just about unchanged on 10's. tons of supply coming out little bit later. lisa: we will have a three year auction later today pay later this week, we have 10 years and 30 years. how much d.c. some of the fears that we saw previously, giving sort of a floor to how much? longer term treasuries can rally? do we see that -- do we see that floor ebb away? jonathan: yields just about unchanged. this is the lineup. we will catch up with george goncalves of mufg.

senator ron johnson we are getting started this hour, quick break, then federal reserve chairman jay powell will speak at d.c. economic club today as jpmorgan are jamie dimon has a new inflation warning, u.s. bank asset management group chief investment officer here we are talking stocks investing in macrostory more live coverage from the republican national convention in milwaukee don't miss that you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business this morning from milwaukee. . ♪ limu emu... ♪ and doug. (bell ringing) limu, someone needs to customize and save hundreds on car insurance with liberty mutual. let's fly! (inaudible sounds) chief! doug. (inaudible sounds) ooooo ah. (elevator doors opening) (inaudible sounds) i thought you were right behind me. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, ♪ ♪ liberty. ♪ did i read this? did i get eggs? where are my keys? memory and thinking issues keep piling up? it may be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain. visit morethannormalaging.com maria: we'll bell, take a look at futures this morning we are looking at a s