economy is still, as jay powell put it, doing just fine. the small open asian economies that still rely very much on exports to the u.s., even more so with china saying that's the message they want to hear. by the same token, the austrian central bank is happy that it doesn't suddenly face pressure to cut a lot of other central banks. they can see a path to easing now that the fed is gone, but without that threat that we're going to have a panic, after all, at times when there have been concerns about a global shock, that's when the u.s. dollar rises, even when interest rates for the u.s. are going down. that is off the table as well. so the best of both worlds as far as central banks and markets are concerned, especially across asia. is looking pretty good for europe as well, at least as far as the futures are showing for now. tom: it certainly is, as things stand. garfield, thank you. now to the bank of england, the boe is of course likely to slide against cutting you a -- u.k. interest rate for second straight meeting, maintaining a pati

good morning that and big cut more than a month before presidential election but fed chairman jay powell told me yesterday this was about the economy. >> -- have how do you respond to criticism will likely come deeper rate cut before election has political motivations. >> this is my fourth presidential election at the fed and, you know always the same we're always going into this meeting in particular, and asking me what is right thing to do for the people we serve, and, we do that, and we make a decision as a group. and then we announces it. that is always what it is -- it is never about anything else nothing else is discussed. >> calling a recalibration to protect labor market big cuts historically during times of stress like day-to-day 50 basis point cut september 18, 2007 because of mortgage cries glenn youngkin with a nod to new knox fuse poll showing 70% registered voters see economy poor or only fair. >> i think the move today represents the fact that the harris biden administration, has so damaged this economy, that they had to take extraordinary action only seen in states of rea

if you had the first question, what would you ask jay powell? >> this is going to be an interesting press conference. charles: yeah. >> what caused them to make the 50 basis point move. because i think -- and i think he'll do an expert if job at not answering that question. charles: how does he answer the question without spooking everyone that the economy is far worse than generally assumed? >> so that's exactly what he has to not do. there is a way to say that he, he's almost back dating to july. charles: okay. >> there is a way to say that he is simply front loading and that none -- but the dot plot shows that he's not front loading because the actual terminal if projections came down. so excited, i forgot to breathe. so it's going to be interesting, and he's going to be asked that question in a numb of different ways -- number of different ways by a number of different people. people are going to be looking for what he's seeing that the made him make that low probability move that danielle was talking about. charles: danielle, where can he p

and no amount of year interest rate finagling by jay powell is going to change this. mr. p's record solidly entrenched in voter minds. powell, meanwhile, keeps telling people how great the biden-harris economy is. but if so, then why has he made this 50 basis point super rate cut, something that's only happened in emergencies like 9/11 or covid or the financial meltdown? i don't get it. perhaps powell is acknowledging, on the other hand, just how bad the biden-harris economy really is with maybe much bigger job losses coming down the road, even higher unemployment. anyway you said i will say this, donald trump has a much -- anyway, i are say this. -- i will say this. here's what mr. trump said last night in long island. >> we are going to grow, grow, grow to start paying down our debt, and we will keep the u.s. dollar as the world's reserve currency. we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home. very simple. [cheers and applause] larry: there he is completely on messa

so did jay powell's fed just go political? we'll ask john carney and wall street star scott besson, but first up our own edward lawrence is live at the federal reserve. edward explain this one to me. reporter: you know, larry, yeah, this is the first time the federal reserve made a move in eight consecutive meetings and this 50 basis point will shock some in the markets but this was not a unanimous vote. in fact board of governor michelle bowman voted against this saying there should have been a 25, smaller 25 basis point cut. now, here is why the federal reserve chairman says they needed to make the deeper cut. >> it's a process of recalibrating our policy stance, away from where we had a year ago when inflation was high and unemployment low and that process will take place over time. there's nothing in the sep that suggests the committee is in a rush. reporter: so the dot plot of that hadssep talks about shows a forecast of two more rate cuts this year if they were to move 25 basis points, then four rate cuts next year and t

>> well i think, charles, the important thing is that this is jay powell's fed.view where you talked about the fed speakers coming out over the next week or so and i really wonder whether that even matters because i think basically what happened last week was powell took everyone in the room, locked the door with all of them inside and said we're going 50 today, everybody and you can either sit there and take it or like it, and that's basically what happened so to me this is his fed. i don't think it speaks matters that much but to me what's important in the statement is first they talked about maximum sustainable employment and the fed is here to support labor market conditions. that's important. that's what got some of the soft landing juices flowing on the street and they are talking about greater confidence on inflation so that tells you they think the battle on inflation has been won. charles: that's sort of, you know, an assumption that people are already saying maybe just a little bit early on it. are they taking, i mean, you were in the 50 basis point cam

larry: i want to play a sound from jay powell -- no, it's donald on jay powell on critique of immigration, illegal immigration. take a listen, art. >> federal reserve chair joe roam powell said "influx across the board service connected one of the thins that allowed unemployment to rise and rise substantially. to save your jobs, you must vote for trump". larry: well, there you go. saving jobs, vote for trump. jay powell is saying unemployment is going up in part because of illegal immigrants and do you agree with jay powell? >> not really. he's logically inconsistent, larry. >> white chevrolet you look at employment growth, it's declining dramatically, larry and that's the problem and unemployment rate, and trump is completely right by the way and unemployment rate increases because of tax policies and that's a serious problem and trump's policies by the way would lead to enormous expansion of unemployment and look at some of the things on the tips, no taxes on tips and you're i love the some deduction limitation and i did. i'm from tennessee and getting rid of that, that does increase th

in stocks, take a look at futures indicated again after stock stumbled on wednesday following jay powell'sision, european markets and the green take about gains across the board in the eurozone, the bank of england making the right decision today at 7:00 a.m. eastern, and asia overnight grade across the board, take a look at the numbers we had gains with big moves in japan and hong kong up 2%, back at home a potential strike is looming for port workers that need to open the holiday season, the efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table as president biden says he will not stop the picket lines, new fox news poll shows kalama harris is edging out president trump nationally, another poll puts trump ahead with independent as the 45th president landed in new york yesterday with hopes to sway the traditionally blue state. we are on a joy the conversation strategic wealth partners ceo mark tepper, posting the president of lonski and partners lee carter and kingsley asset management cio scotty martin, "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. maria: the federal reserve cutting in

it's not political but yesterday president biden falsely claimed that he's never met fed chairman jay powelled, watch this. >> like my predecessor i respect the independence as they pursued it to mandate to bring inflation down. i have never once spoken since i became president. >> jay, the floor is yours over to the side. >> mr. president, thank you. >> he said he never spoke to him but we have video he introduces him. >> baby his words are dissecting words and maybe his term spoken is another definition that were not familiar with but of course it's unambiguous that he actually spoke with him which again kind of focuses on the credibility of the relationship and what we hear from both of those officials, remember he has higher power over the fed so but the very structure there is influence there, major influence. for us to think that they do not speak to each other is really very naÏve in these hard times. maria: of course, john lonski uam. >> what strikes me as being somewhat odd despite the half of a percentage point cut of the federal funds rate what is the ten year treasury yield do, i

do you agree with jay powell.on: not really, is logically inconsistent larry, hannah mina in employment when it because of illegal immigrants, and he had come up with they come in some of them get jobs and some don't in the labor force when you look at employment, the growth is been declining dramatically, and trump is completely right by the way >> can i get yes because i am from tennessee but if you to get rid of that, does increase the after-tax rate of return, for upper income or purse, and it would be an increase in jobs of an employment and income. larry: firing to be the last word. in the last year, probably longer but jay powell said this in the last year the nativeborn jobs, have put down illegal immigrants have taken those jobs away do you agree with that. byron: i do agree we are seeing this phenomenon where those skilled labor is being up in part by illegal immigrants in the country and that's why that harris biden on wide open border policy has been but diabolical struggling families working families

but listen to details coming from jay powell and company tomorrow. if the fed signals their intention to cut more quickly mortgage rates could move lower. remember, any fall below the psychologically important barrier of 6% could impact the housing market by spurring boomers to sell and increases inventory and by the way, buyers would have another $9,000 on average in money to spend on that house. look, credit card rates on the other hand could ease lower based on a fed cut but every little bit would help with rates at 20.78% on average, that's -- and 30% for store cards credit card balances are at an all time high, up 48% since biden took office. don't expect any rate you pay you to fall instantly. the credit card and type of card matter. most student loans have a fixed rate, the current average, 6.53%. during the pandemic rates were 2.75. plus, the government allowed bborrowers to stop paying interest during that time. lower rates are good for borrowers, for savers not so good. yields on saving accounts, cds, money market funds, that will be lower

. ♪ ♪ >> forty days before the election coming it was like pentair jay powell just get kamala harris 50 basis point gifts by slashing the target rate one half of one percentage point is my wealth of the central bank smack in the middle of residential politics somethig they pledged not to do now in lt of them honest commodity prices and long-term interest rates and a softening the labor market, and 25 basis point would seem to be justified in economic terms. no political overtones that was alert but super cup well this sounds kind of like the ultra democratic senators elizabeth warren and they're all the fed to lower interest rates by 75 basis points and into the economy is growing above the feds 2 percent growth target, while your dear inflation how soft commented to have percent remains above at the feds 2 percent inflation target and the problems those of it affordability crisis in consumer prices throughout biden here is term, having traced faster than wages and across the living index is up about 20 percent weekly wages is up about 16 percent. the working families have lost about

make the case. >> let's start with jay powell. he's already made the case. he waited too long, and the best way you can show that you waited too long and that you get it, and that you are becoming more responsive to where we are on interest rates, is actually go ahead and do a nice, big rate cut. keep in mind that keeping those rates high, as he has done, keeping those interest rates so high, actually has contributed to our measure of inflation. so it means for all those housing developers out there, we need more housing, right? they say i can't afford to do this because the interest rates are too high. borrowing costs are so high. it means we have fewer new apartments coming online, fewer new houses coming online and for families that want to buy, the cost is higher. talk about a loop that feeds back into the measure of inflation, and keeps that number high. look, overall, we know we're headed in the right direction, inflation is down from 7% two years ago. so it's a third of what it was. and yet the fed hasn't budged. it's time to show that they remember t

jay powell said the u.s.conomy is in a good place and the decision yesterday was designed to keep it there. so, the fed stressing out there's no reason to be concerned about the u.s. economy because naturally, a 50-basis point cut could be interpreted as a sign of the economic concern for the united states. that is not the message from the fed. when you look at european markets today, we are seeing green across the board. the stoxx 600 trading higher at this stage. yesterday, ended the session down .50%. the investors are digesting the commentary from the fed. worth keeping in mind, it is time to hear from the bank of england with the interest rate decision and the cpi for the month of august came in at 2.2%. at this stage, some positive momentum on the ftse, but we'll keep a close eye in uk equities today. let's look at the different sectors to understand what is the corporate story this morning. at the top, we have basic resources. the best performing sector at this stage up 3%. significant moves when it co

senate democrats including massachusetts senator elizabeth warren are calling on federal reserve jay powello cut rates by 75 basis points, they say waiting this long to cut rates threatened the economy left fed behind curve what elizabeth warren sheldon whitehouse john said macromavens president stephanie pomboy you say you are firmly in hard landing camp do you expect 75 basis points cut tomorrow realistic. >> god i hope not if they did maria -- hard day imagine nakedly political we've got inflation data last week trend is not the fed's friend i know everyone cell celebrated numbers key driver housing not going up un, going up suggests inflation numbers actually going to move higher if anything in future, the fed having come up with a new measures include everything you need food, energy housing even by favorite news supercore measure inflation is growing 4 1/2%, up, from 3.8 last october, where is the wiggle room for them to cut rates much less 75 basis points? i mean give me a break! maria: amazing to me elizabeth warren is now, the expert on this telling them that they missed the move,

this is why wall street did not when jay powell to go 50.erday, i heard his voice was determined that gives me a lot of comfort. i am more confident to be honest with you right now today the federal stick the landing that was yesterday. so far if you look at all on the screen it looks like the street is more confident as well i want to bring in jim paulson. just your thoughts. not just to the move but so far at wallwall street's reaction te move. >> i guess what i am thinking about is like you said the fed cut is way overdue. cpi inflation peaked in mid- 2022. the commodity prices peaked they were off more than 30% since then. here the fed sets it five and half funds rate. it's long overdue it gives a sense they're finally bringing it. that's important for this regard this is the only bowl we've had in postwar history that slid its entire existence under fed tightening. no other bull market has been like that. the result of that has been the fed has held up a lot of the normal support that it normally gives in a bull market. normally the eas

lo talk to to you -- love talking to you, david. >> jay powell speaking right now.an see we're drifting a little bit, but we've got some headlines coming in. more importantly, we've got sheila bair. she told the fed not to cut at all. she's here to reiterate her case why they made a mistake, next. ♪ ♪ they get it. they know how it works. and most importantly, it works for them. i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. i don't have to worry about a mortgage payment every month. it allowed me to live in my home and not have to make payments. if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access a portion of your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan can eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and put tax-free cash in your pocket. it was the best thing i've ever done. really? yes without a doubt. these folks know, finance of america can show you how a reverse mortgage loan uses your built-up home equity to give you tax-free cash. it's a good thing! so look, why don't you get the facts like these folks did and see if a reverse mortgage coul

the metaphor jay powell used is cooling.looking ahead and they do not wanted to cool anymore. they expect the unemployment rate to rise a little bit more but they want to act preemptively from keeping the labor market from getting worse because they think they basically won the war against inflation. my friend is a former obama advisor and he said this is as close to mission accomplished as you will hear. amna: they are making a bigger cut now because it was said they were slow to recognize the slow down and they are trying to catch up. do you see any validity in that? >> absolutely. some people think they should have started cutting rates in july. jay powell was asked about that and he said if i had seen the numbers, maybe we would have. they might be behind the curve but they do not want to be far behind the curve. amna: this lowers federal fund rates between 4.75% and 5%. what does this mean for everyday americans with mortgages and credit cards? >> one way monetary policy works is through financial markets. financial mar

harris have done as far as the border goes we want do let everybody know waiting on comments from jay powelleaking later, we're looking to a potential rate cuts in november what size cuts are we getting, remember, this is the last day of september third quarter, you are "mornings with maria" live on "fox business." ♪ growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. vizsla silver has consolidated one of the largest high grade silver projects in the world in mexico. we've just released our pea and that's the first step to production. we're massively undervalued, with less than 9% of our known veins having been drilled so far. the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. we're massively undervalued, with less "soulmates."ur known soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. an

one of the reasons i think the market's really kind of doing all this, obviously, it's pressing jay powellcut 50 basis points tomorrow, but it's sort of having your cake with a cherry on top moment because not only are they pushing powell to be more accommodative, but right now we see a large number of money managers saying, hey, no recession on the horizon for at least the next 18 months. imagine that, an accommodative fed and a friendly economic backdrop? goldman sachs, in fact, just now saying, you know what? we're going to to go to 6,000. over the next six months, 6,000 should not be unreasonable. maybe there's a different message emerging from the bond market, folks. this is the really interesting here. so just so we understand, even though we're right about 25%, look where we've come in just about a month's time. the bond market getting a little antsy on the probability of a recession. one of the reasons that we used to the talk about a lot and not as much before, you remember that steepening yield curve here? well, it's really starting to move bigtime. and p again, this track record

lisa: this is basically what jay powell said himself. it was fantastic.s is why it is good to have the lawyer as the central banker. there is an advantage, but what it -- one advantage is the ability to make a 50 basis point can't make -- sound like a hawkish move catering to everyone at a time when there was almost a concession by jay powell that this was catch up from july. jonathan: so what is going on? peter tchir was in the room about 50 minutes ago, and as he headed to the exit he said, look at dollar-yen. he said maybe people were waiting to see how dollar-yen took things overnight in asian trading. and if you got some stability then may be risk can start to make a run. dollar-yen is at 143. lisa: basically argues for the hawkish 50 basis point cut. this is the reason why. if he believed this was the fed that was going to ease more significantly you would expect that the vergence to widen. if the bank of japan were to hike on friday that would only widen the gap further at a time when you are seeing other central banks move away from the fed. the f

thursday, all eyes will once again be on jay powell speaking.less claims, coming out more and more, and important data point every week. and the preferred defense inflation gauge, pca -- pce with sentiment data. final thought, fed speak in the pipeline. even just after today hearing remarks from waller about inflation is the key decision, remember, we also have folks like austan goolsbee speaking, the chicago fed president, where the story about employment will be an even bigger question at the end of the day. fed supervision chair also speaking next week and of course, bank capital rules are front and center. from new york, that does it for me. same time, same place next week. this was "bloomberg real yield," and this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana

jay powell speaking on monday and christine lagarde. you will not want to miss that.lys being read. a vice president -- every tea leaf being read. some economic data. friday, the u.s. jobs report. for my final thought let's dig into the u.s. jobs report. looking at estimates. this is a report where the market is hanging on a thread to know whether 50 or 25 basis points will be necessary. the estimate this time is 140,000. you heard from meghan robson at bnp. the worry measure is if we fall below 130,000. average hourly earnings is estimated to be lighter than the prior read at .3% higher than the month before. 3.7% higher than the year before. that is a slower pace than before. from new york, that does it for us. this was "real yield" and this is bloomberg. ♪ peaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those s

and the question now is does jay powell have something going here?0 basis point cut, did he leak that to the newspapers so the markets would be paired if that happens or can you convince people to do it? this is one of the most interesting meetings in a very long time. it was september of 2016 -- 2015, rather, the last time we did not know going into a meeting for the policy decision is going to be. jonathan: amazing, remember it well. delaney, good morning. i don't want to kick it off with a conspiracy theory but i'm going to kick it off any conspiracy theory. market pressing toward 50 basis points. leave them no choice on the committee but to go with 50 basis points. >> i think there is something to that and obviously the lack of pushback from the fed through perceived backdoor channels suggests that probably that was the making of the chair, because after all at the jackson hole meeting, he was double. so we were so spoiled. we have been so spoiled. here is the data and here is the decision that you're going to expect. before the decision itself.

traders awaiting remarks from fed chair jay powell later this session. powell will be taking the stage at the national association for business economics at that conference. this will be power's first public remarks since' announced the fed rate cut decision. for more on what markets might be listening for, we're joined by the senior economist jennifer lee. we have heard from other speakers, but this is the first time that we'll hear from powell. what will be his main message? >> hi there, thanks for having me on the show today. i think his main message is not going to stray too much from what he said a couple of weeks ago. i think that was the equivalent of his mic drop when he had the 50 basis point rate cut, and he said all the right key phrases that you ought to expect, this type of, the size of rate cuts going forward. but they're not in a rush. they're going to take it out, and they are not on a preset course. since then, it's been interesting. we saw a few economic indicators that actually were coming in expected, like upward revisions to g.d.p.,

. >> we don't know if jay powell will flip a coin. our point of view, it's a county flip. >> i guess how much does it matter? and what message does it send in either scenario? >> not a great deal. what matters much more than whether it's 25 or 50 is what surrounds the 25 or the 50. you canhave a 25 that sounds aggressive about future cuts, but you can have a 50 that sounds light more passive about future cuts, and frankly it's not so clear which of those two is the more expansionary policy. i think the pros in this case matter much more than the number of base points. assuming it's either 25 or 50. and the fed doesn't have some big surprise in store for us, which i certainly don't think. >> yeah. like 37.5? or nothing? i mean -- >> no. 75 or 0. yeah. we'd be shocked. you'll be shocked, i'd be shocked. that's not going to happen. >> they seem not to necessarily be looking to shock the market already a little off balance in term what's to expect. i guess the nature of a potential soft landing is that it's in the eye of the beholder depe

jay powell likely set to cut rates for the first time in four years. betting on 59% chance of a 50-basis point cut. 41% expecting a .25 cut. let's bring in alan here from re regents bank. >> good morning, frank. >> does it matter for the markets in a big way or small way? >> i think basically it is a coin flip right now. i think what is really important is what does chairman powell talk about during the conference because we only have a few more months until the end of the year and are they behind the 8-ball here? it is telegraphing what's to come. there is a lot of time between then and now. >> we want to get to a few things. what are you telegraphing? >> we think they will come in at 25 with the possibility of 50. what they will telegraph is the employment situation is not as dire as some have talked about saying we're going over the cliff. this is not a wily coyote moment. this is a cooling, not a coll collapsing. don't worry. we're still on this. 25 is enough for now. the only thing we think about is could you do 50 just to placate the market and s

maria: what about three senate democrats including elizabeth warren sent a letter to jay powell demandingrates by 75 basis points says waiting this long to cut traits threatened the economy left fed bin curve patrick mckinney blasted lawmakers said demeaning role trying to influence fed central bank should act in a way the data indicates. nick, do we have a sense, do you have a sense, of whether or not the fed has missed their can you be the and is in fact behind the curve the way elizabeth warren charges? >> well, you know, the comments from, interview that i did yesterday basically said the instead should do white has to do period i this is what fed is going to do here. i think the reason this is a close call today because you know there was a debate at the last meeting july whether should cut they, obviously, decided not to cut interest rates then, then two days after that meeting you got a job report that was much softer than what almost anybody had been looking for. i think if they had that number in front of that at that meeting probably would have cut interest rates you don't get m

jay powell says he doesn't see any signs of a recession risk.e of elevated inflationary pressure yours. the labor market is actually in solid condition. and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. you can say that about the whole economy. the u.s. economy is in good p shape. it's growing at a solid pace. inflation is coming down. maria: so what's your reaction, jay? >> well, we think that chair powell is really doing a catch-up. he absolutely should have cut rates in july and he didn't really want his legacy to be the behind the curve fed and so we think it was a catch-up, didn't really affect the future estimates of cuts and -- but it's very bullish and you're seeing that. people tried to fade it yesterday. you're seeing it overnight, the rest of the world is rallying hard, super bullish, going to usher in other cuts overseas, more liquidity to the market and higher prices and makes our 6,000 target look potentially too conservative given that we're ripping towards 6,000 at the end of september which is usually a terrible

and jay powell doesn't do drastic unless he has no other choice. e is a whole cottage industry of people eager to criticize the fed and chairman powell, i generally think our central bankers have done a pretty good job. of navigating covid and the post covid era. they were accommodating when they needed to be early on, saving the economy from ruin. when it became clear they pivoted and they've gotten inflation almost entirely under control in barely more than two years, which is extraordinary and they've done it without tipping us into recession, which is amazing. they don't want to take a victory lap, so i will do it for them. in my opinion we are the logical next step where the fed can begin to unwind the tight money posture. the fed has done a magnificent job signaling this is coming, so there's no need to surprise the market with a double rate cut. if they did hit us with a double rate cut, i think that would cause people to panic because it would signal the economy is doing much worse than we thought and there is something awful lurking that no

jay powell understands trends, right? if he knows what's going on. he understands what's really happening in this economy. forget about the government day a. the he knows the real economy. it's not muddied in his mind. he understands aggregated data where a couple of rich families have offset poor families, right? he knows it's going to be revised lore. he also understandens most americans need relief right now. his rate hikes did not stop food prices from going through the roof, so why should people pay 23 interest rates on credit cards -- 23% interest rates to the buy food? he's going to take a series of rate cuts to make kent in your credit cards. he's a -- a dent in your credit cards. i think he's worried about his place among other fed chairs, and i say that really a because, for him, i say take the first down, jay powell. forget about what the book says, go with your gut. over to liz claman. liz: charles, wait, go back to the whole, um, you know, al michaels thing. [laughter] i like your sports commentating. charles: thank you very much. liz: l

we'll hear from jay powell at 230 eastern today following the decision, wall street tycoons are weighingld close the gap and cut by half a point, he's predicted a 50 basis point rate cut today, ever core isi also echoing calls for higher cut ring he would be shocked if it is not a cut of 50 basis points. meanwhile on capitol hill 37 democrats including massachusetts editor elizabeth warren calling on jay powell to cut rates by 75 basis points saying waiting this long to cut rates has threatened the economy and left the fed behind the curve, has financial services patrick mckinley blasting the lawmakers saying there demeaning the role kind influence the fed and the central bank should act in the way the data indicates, former president trump weighed in on the anticipated cut with supporters in michigan yesterday. watch this. >> the economy is not good in interest rates will do the rate cut another political stuff tomorrow, will he do a half a point or quarter of a point but the reason the academy is not good otherwise you will not be able to do it but were getting interest rates down. mar

let's hear from the man of the hour, jay powell. this is what he had to say, announcing that 50-basis-point reduction to the fed funds rate. let's have a listen. >> i do not think that anyone should look at this and say this is the new pace. you have to think about it in terms of the base case. of course, what happens will happen, so in the base case, what you see is you look at the sep, you see cuts moving along. the sense is we are recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level, and we are moving at the pace that we think is appropriate. paul: so the fed's decision to cut by 50 basis points, though, not unanimous. michelle bowman cast the first dissenting vote by a fed governor in almost two decades when it comes to a cut. she preferred to 25 basis point cut instead. for more on what this means, let's bring in bloomberg's asia economics correspondent. what was michelle bowman thinking here? >> she was probably thinking that it's not quite time to make these big cuts because she is more focused on keeping interest rate

before that, let's start with the market action and we'll hear from jay powell later this hour, by the in the meantime, rafael bostic moments ago said he's open to a half-point cut if the labor market remains weak. dom chu, how are markets taking that? >> the markets are taking it relatively in stride. we're off the best levels of the session, but we're off the worst one, as well. in fact, we're pretty much flat for the major s&p 500 broader measure. again, down one point amid those comments and other comments by some fed speakers. the nasdaq composite is marginally positive, just about flat again, only up 11 points to 18,130. the s&p 500 is at 5736, pretty much flat, just down two points. we were only up five points at the highs of the session and down 14 points at the low. the dow industrials is the real underperformer down .25%, and it's good for 125 points to the down side. another place to keep a close eye on that's not been doing anything modest at all these days has been the chinese market. the shanghai composite index, that broader index, is up 8%. its best one-day gain in roug

annmarie: maybe a journalist can ask jay powell about this at the press conference. with credibility it is doubly. why don't you just get started is what he said. i take dudley's comments with more weight than leaning towards 50. jonathan: bill has been making this comment for a while. if you're upside, let's get a move on. the point that bill dudley made around interest rates is important. 25 instead of 50 because you are worried about the signal, why cut interest rates at all at this point? that's a valid one. lisa: it is highlighting the lunacy of some of these arguments. if they cut by 50 basis points may be the market would extrapolate 150 basis point. why not cut by 50 at every meeting? you can come into a lot of scenarios. the fed can do a lot with the stitching. is not just about this particular move. it is going forward, where the balance of risks is. jonathan: wednesday is a three-part act. the decision, the forecast, and a news conference with chairman powell. futures firmer by 2%. the bond market, yields are a little lower, down one basis point. on the tw

i think jay powell kind of alluded to that, too. he seemed quite aware of the differentiation between new tenant rents and rolling of old tenant rents. and it's happening at a rate that is shorter, the timeline is more extended than most people, i think, are used to assuming when they look at the rent levels. that's another reason why i think that the fed is comfortable. he says he's balanced, he used that word over and over. what i heard was we're more worried about the employment picture than the inflation picture and i agree he's right on that. >> you've made the argument that if people assume that it's going to be -- as some have suggested, that this is going to be a golden aged for fixed income because of the trajectory of rates, that it's more nuanced than that, that you need to be more selective and careful than just thinking that way. how? >> yeah, i mean, the golden age for fixed income was a year ago when spreads on high-yield bonds were 500 over and the base rate was at 5%. you could get 10% if you underwrote your credit

i think jay powell made a very big mistake and you're right mickey bowman deserves kudos. warsh, sm smartest of the smart. larry: coming up charlie gasparino once said donald trump knows kamala harris' economic agenda better than kamala harris knows her economic agenda. charlie will be here and so will steve forbes, right here on set on kudlow. t. (other money manager) you can't be that different. (fisher investments) we are. we have a team of specialists not only in investing, but also also in financial and estate planning and more. (other money manager) your clients rely on you for all that? (fisher investments) yes. and as a fiduciary, we always put their interests first. (other money manager) but you still sell commission -based products, right? (fisher investments) no. we have a simple management fee structured so we do better when our clients do better. (other money manager) huh, we're more different than i thought! (fisher investments) at fisher investments, we're clearly different. think scaling your ai pilots is hard? think again. with watsonx, you can deploy ai a

what do you think is driving jay powell. i go back to 2018 hike four time, markets falling apart.he ghost of christmas past over the holidays because he came back in early january and gave his speech and his focus shifted to main street a little bit. why is his sensibility seem so much different than everyone else's? >> he has more of a forward-looking perspective than other peers and colleagues and we've been saying for a while that the economy has been slowing for some time. we're seeing slower labor market growth and more prudence on the part of consumers and businesses are more cautious so in that environment where inflation is no longer the main threat we have to be concerned about it's optimal for forward-looking policy makers to focus on the next 12 months and those next 12 months are a little bit rocky, so we have to have monetary policy that's no longer as restrictive but much closer to neutral. charles: you also say large cut implicit is an implicit admission of a policy mistake. what if there is a policy mistake? isn't it sometimes okay to say, we might have gone too fa

more cuts by the end of the year but jay powell emphasized they will take it meeting by meeting. >> meeting by meeting, there is no sense that they can meeting feels it is in a rush to do those. that a strong start to this and that is really frankly a sign of our confidence, confidence inflation is coming down towards 2%. >> investors using the language in those pressers, aggressive, more cautious cycle, markets immediately seemed confused. banded down over a hundred points but we were all over the place during the day. president biden to configure your right -- lob, saying that we just reach an important moment, inflation rates are falling while the economy stays strong, our policies are lowering costs including jobs pick one word of caution, you cut too quickly, inflation could spike back up to the levels we have seen in recent years pick just because the rate of inflation is downed as ongoing costs are down, this will continue to be a delicate balance with inflation in the labor market it, always an election less than two months away. >> neil: that's the weird part, one of the ar

there's so many things out of jay powell's hands. >> yeah, there really is., the timing at this point if they're hoping to the affect the economy in the next six months, say, they are way late to the game. they've pretty much made their bed at this point. the time for the fed to stop in and cut this off would have been, what, 2021 when we had this just tsunami of government spending. of course, that's what fed the inflation. that then knocked the fed on this pend if lumbar where they keep swinging too far -- pendulum too far in one way to the other. at this point the fed if is very reactive. they're trying to sort of balance things between the inflation and what looks like a looming recession. now, the trick here for the fed is that historically recessions drop inflation by a lot. so in the past four recessions going back 35 years, inflation has dropped 3.5 points on average because of the version. recession. you have unsold goods, excess capacity. so at this point the fed can't be sure, you know, is it really mission accomplished on inflation, or is it missi

i know jay powell is concerned. they have a lot of room to work with. they can go 50 and also massage the language saying we'll continue to watch from here. we just had a revision in the jobs report, 818,000 fewer jobs. we can't afford that right now. we will barrel into a recession. the ultimate 1-two punch for the average american is fighting with inflation that's destroyed your real purchasing power and maybe losing your job after that. >> dana: i want to show you the board. the rising prices under the biden-harris administration. if you are just -- i could read everything about the fed 20 times and still don't quite understand it. if you are a single mom raising two kids trying to make ends meet and look at these prices. out of all these categories food, shelter, auto insurance, energy, pet food, if the fed takes this action today, where might somebody like her get relief? >> there won't be any relief any time soon and why the argument that it's political, i think honestly republicans are missing the real story here. the real story is forget about t

and i think jay powell after staying at zero for long, got into a sweet spot to do this. >> if you lookas the only fed that eased while the inflation surged almost all the way to the peak and then tightened since it's coming down. fortunately, all the other economic policies did the opposite. as the fed was waiting to tighten, money growth collapsed and bond yields went from half to 3.5%, and the dollar rose. there was a lot of tightening that broke inflation, and then the fed started tightening and all the others started easing, and bond yields have stopped rising up over that period of time. >> yeah. >> i think they were offset by some of the other policies. >> the only thing that would concern me is we have gotten our move in the tightening cycle and there's no reason to get another move in the easing cycle. >> i think there's some move in that statement. we are getting aspects, as i said, we have never gotten. we never lifted confidence yet. we are seeing evidence as we are nearing the fed easing, and that's a big thing that helps the stock market. we also have never had full on mon

jay powell may be constrained a little bit internally.a: the economy is the number one issue for voters. we heard over president trump just that the fed could be playing politics you. how do you look at that? >> this was inevitable. whatever they did, the review to of something. if they did too little, the democrats would sathey are holding back. i actually believe the fed that they are doing what they think is necessary for the economy. they are trying to avoid thinking about the timing of the election. people believe that but that is why we have an independent central bank, so they can do what is right for the economy. they know they will get recent from the republicans. although the republicans were a little bit ambivalent. amna: you well know the inflation rate is not at the target of 2%. fed officials say part of the reason behind the move today is they are confident they are moving sustainably toward that target. are there unknowns at had that mean inflation could take back up? >> there are always unknowns. but it looks like we are

do you think grabbing jay powell by the lapel and saying cut the key policy rate down is the right step? >> i think bank of canada and ecb can cut, because the canadians and the europeans exercise some level of fiscal prudence. they are not two footed driving. there is a natural economic cycle, and jay powell has been easing, for whatever reason, he felt compelled to ease financial conditions last fall, after the fomc meetings in november and december. the statements were very anodyne , and he walked out at a press conference and gave very dovish guidance of rate hike, rate cuts are coming and a massive ease of financial conditions. by doing that, what happened? he pushed up the stock market, which benefits the top 20%, and then we are back to the bottom 50% who don't own assets, they have debts, so rates have had to stay higher for longer. i actually think that he has hurt biden's chances by reigniting inflation, pushing economic growth, re-accelerating economic growth, when it could have been slowing. and i think they could have been cutting rates, but they are not. and i would also p

i mean, you had secretary buttigieg -- >> jay powell didn't do anything?en possible with high energy prices, and they would tell you no. >> and a lot of probably the initial inflation, which was supply chain related, was due to higher energy prices. >> both sides of the aisle, pick any economist, and ask them, could this have been done without bringing energy prices down like we did? they will tell you, no. >> do you remember energy prices flow through everything we do. every product we buy was delivered to a store or was delivered to your house. it was delivered by something that consumes energy. every product we buy was manufactured by something that consumers energy. energy is the most important single factor in the economy, so when the price of energy comes down, it flows through everything in the economy. so, going back to the policy of pumping oil, and we're up to 13 million barrels a day in this country, and fracking and producing natural gas, is the most important ingredient to driving down inflation and putting purchasing power back in consumers'

it has fallen 25 basis points since jackson hole when we got the clear indication from jay powell thatexpect rate cuts coming up. the two-year falling 50 basis points since jackson hole right now at 3.55. thafrnl . >>> that is the money set up right now. we have the top stories with one tech giant putting its foot down with being in the office. pippa ceris here. >> andy jassy is ordering staff members to return to the office five days a week starting after the new year. the company believes it offers significant advantages. this moves a shift from the previous stance which required workers to be in the office three days per week. >>> openai announcing the safety and security company will become an independent board oversight committee. the committee created in may, will oversee the safety and security procedures of openai deployment and development. this comes as the chatgpt maker pursues the funding around to value at $150 billion. >>> the head of the faa will testify before the house transportation committee next week on the boeing fall quality improvement plan. this comes in the wak

do they look towards rhetoric out of just jay powell? how about everybody's?the quiet period? jonathan: we cut interest rates by 50 basis points with jobless claims still in the low 200s. lisa: it was a recalibration. jonathan: i heard that on repeat. lisa: it was a recalibration. this was the most demanded fed cut since the early 1980's given how far the front end of the treasury yields have fallen this is a fed that craves to be on the right side of the market. how do you get the market to cooperate with our mixed signals? herein lies the question around some of the messaging. jonathan: equities at all-time highs. equity futures pulling back from those levels this morning. down .2% on the s&p 500. yields higher by basis point or two. the 10 year, 3.7319. sam stovall of cfra as stocks come off record highs. christian weatherby of wells fargo on a gram 2025 outlook. and veronica clark of citi on why she disagrees with the fed on recession risk. stocks stalling at all-time highs as a fed rate cut euphoria begins to fade. sam stovall saying we remind investors t

it's disingenuous to say because jay powell can indicate this is a start of the accelerated process ofate cuts and only go 25 and do exactly the same as he would intend to do if he went more extreme and went 50 as well. the market knows that as well. that said, there are strident views out there what they should do with the fed funds rates. a lot of people price off the 30 with the mortgage or ten-year treasury. it is not just the fed fund rate we need to look at with the cost of finance in the united states. that said, i did speak with the economists and nobel laureate joseph stiglitz here in the forum. i asked whether the fed has fallen behind the curve. very interesting about why he thinks perhaps the fed is c creating more inflation with its policies than they like to do. listen in. >> i've been criticizing the fed for going too far too fast. really important for it to have normalized interest rates. zero interest rate is not the cost of capital and that was a mistake probably to have it that low that long since 2008, but then they went beyond that to where the interest rates have

we will hear from jay powell and kugler and bowman.t week. we heard mixed messages. austan goolsbee said policymakers can't be behind the curve for the u.s. to achieve the soft landing. raphael bostic said the fed doesn't need to go on a mad dash to lower rates. we have roger ferguson with us. roger, good morning. as always, great to see you. >> good morning, frank. nice to see you. >> roger, what do you make of us hearing from so many fed officials? obviously, they are speak bing about the economy and moving markets. what's your general take on it? >> first, it is not a departure what from what we have seen in recent years. after the blackout period, the fed opfficials are speaking. it is a lot to have on one day, but that's the trend. i think what's going to happen is a consistent message which is we don't want to fall behind the curve. some with risks more balanced. there will be some on 25 versus 50 points. you see someone going on 50 and others say no need for a mad dash. i think volatility is going to come from a second place whi

monday, jay powell will speak and everyone will be focused on that. hopefully we get some thoughts from him on the way forward. adp on wednesday, jobless claims, and then on tuesday and thursday we get numbers for manufacturing and services. there will be a lot of focus on the labor market next week. it is getting everybody's attention. we have jobs day on friday. before the fed meets again we have another jobs report, pce report and cpi report. it will be important next week but it will not be the final word. scarlet: we have five or six weeks before the next fomc. mike: we have to get through the election before the fed meets. scarlet: let's step away from the markets and the economy for a moment. earlier this hour new york city mayor eric adams pleaded not guilty at his arraignment for corruption charges. miles miller joins us. he has covered new york city for years. miles: his quote was, "i am not guilty, your honor." adams in court recording -- according to our reporters -- his expression was very grave. he was taking in the moment, the severity