jeff bush is back with us. he is a partner at the washinoion update and he us now with his thoughts. good to see you back with us, jeff, welcome. >>> thank you, sue. >> you make the point in your opinion the markets have priced in a democratic house win. if that is the case, what has thearket not priced in right now? what might surprise the market a bit? >> well think there are two potential surprises, one the republicans would maintain e.ntrol of the ho and i think we would see an immediate relief rally. at some point the market will remember that there are systemic issues to deal with, rising interest rates, the tariffus dion, trade wars and the like. which will tamphat rally down a little bit. >> clearly the economy is in good shape, jeff. unemployment, grow, you nam it. does that resonate with voters right now in your view? in other words does the president have coat tails that extend into the house andgn sene camp this season. >> where the coat tails exist they existg very l coat tails. the problem is those

jeff pegues, thank you very much. fran townsend served as homeland security adviser to president george w. bush. s e is now our cbs news senior security analyst. fran, so much to wrap our heads around here. ndat stands out to you right now about this investigation and arrest? >> jeff, this was classic police work, right. you've got the fingerprint, the d.n.a., they used the cell phone technology to locate him. but let's remember, without the forensics, if this guy did not a cri criminal-- prior criminal record, we wouldn't have had his fingerprints and we wouldn't have had his d.n.a. those things-- the fingerprint and d.n.a.-- on file, is the key he khem cracking this case and r.resting cesar. so we're very fortunate that this guy had a prior criminal record. if he didn't, that fingerprint and the d.n.a. wouldn't have been as useful in actually focusing in and getting to him. tt glor: what about his profile, lian, his political beliefs? being alone, it would appear tanstantly, the blatant van that ri was driving around florida, what do you make of all that? >> you know, it reminds me very much, j

bush. >>> all right. last word for jeff. >> it's going to be nice tomorrow morning.ust a little bit of cloud cover near the coast and the bay. cool in the 50s. for a lot of those inland valleys, we're going see the a lot of sunshine for tomorrow. what about the extended forecast? it goes warmer, upper 80s friday, saturday, sunday. and some wind. it will keep the fire threat high. but if we watch out for our neighbors, i think we have a good weekend coming our way. >> thanks, jeff. that's going to do it for us. we'll see you tomorrow. >> bye-bye. >> bye. >> steve: fr studi6b in rockefeller center in the heart of new york city, it's "the tonight show starring jimmy fallon."n jiy and his guests -- jonah hill,

bush. >>> all right. last word for jeff. >> it's going to be nice tomorrow morning. just a little bit of cloud cover near the coast and the bay. cool in the 50s. for a lot of those inland valleys, we're going see the a lot of sunshine for tomorrow. what about the extended forecast? it goes warmer, upper 80s friday, saturday, sunday. and some wind. it will keep the fire threat high. but if we watch out for our neighbors, i think we have a good weekend coming our way. >> thanks, jeff. that's going to do it for us. we'll see you tomorrow. >> bye-bye. >> bye. [ cheers and applause ] ♪ >> steve: from studio 6b in rockefeller center in the heart of new york city, it's "the tonight show starring jimmy fallon." tonight, join jimmy and his guests -- jonah hill, charles barkley, musical guest bazzi, and featuring the legendary roots crew. >> questlove: 943! kansas! >> steve: and now, here he is, jimmy fallon! ♪ ♪ [ cheers and applause ] >> jimmy: oh, my goodness. that's what i'm talking about. whoa! looking great out there. looking great. welcome, everybody. welcome to "the to

jeff, republicans called that another stalling tactic. >> glor: nancy cordes, thanks very much. fran townsend once served as homeland security adviser to president george w. bushis now our senior security analyst. fran, explain why at this point the f.b.i. would not have potentially talked to christine blasey ford. >> well, it would make perfect investigative sense, jeff. ul you waited to the end, you would want to interview a bunch of witnesses. you want to see if you gather additional information, then you would interview dr. ford, judge ivanaugh, and use any additional information you might ive gleaned. it's inconceivable to me you would complete this phase of the background and not talk to them ew all because, after all, the f.b.i. has never interviewed dr. ford. both dr. ford and judge kavanaugh gave very detailed testimony before the senate 'sdiciary committee but that's quite different than sitting down with the f.b.i. >> glor: and can you wrap up a background investigation in a week's time? >> this is very limited. this is not a full and complete background investigation, which for judge kavanaugh probably took several weeks. this is very limited to th

be nominated by donald trump, given the things donald trump has said about bush and who worked for him, but this goes to jeff tubin's point, this is what was very galvanizing for republicans, because they also saw a president who they may be on the fence about stick with brett kavanaugh through this very bruising fight, unlike what president barack obama did and how hillary clinton did not even mention merrick garland during that election. i think that was interesting. i think also that republican voters are awakened and some are reenergized, those that were the base, and others are energized who are on the fence about donald trump because they saw the supreme court battle as important. republicans always do to the courts as maimportant, and they also did not like seeing the process and path we were going down on how brett kavanaugh, his character and integrity and record were being distorted. >> i think there's an alliance and difference when you look at the views about the national press, about the media in general, those are the ties that bind that are separate, i think, from allegiance to donald trump. >

jeff pegues, thanks very much. to a certain extent here, it would appear-- fran townsend served as homeland security adviser to president george w. bushe is now senior national security analyst for cbs news. they knew what they needed tough to make a bomb, fran, but certainly not in a very sophisticated way. >> we're hearing that it's a crude device. but it's not a standard recipe, so what we're hearing from law enforcement sources is this is an individual-- he didn't go on the internet and just pull down t standard al qaeda recipe, which we've seen before. so he's left his own signature, naght. there's something unique about the way this has been put together, which will be very helpful to investigators. >> glor: but the notion that it's p.c.v. and not metal is that it could potentially get through a metal detector is a little frightening. >> that's right. this is somebody who thought about it. costen, that's also the reason tu have all the return addresses being debbie wasserman shultz, to all these democratic leaders, thinking perhaps it wouldn't be screened, because it was familiar. they would have expected something from her. e g

jeff flake and joe mansion all voted yes. lisa murkowski of alaska voted no. testers filled the halls of the capitol calling out to mansion as he spoke with reporters. former president george w. bush reportedly lobbied collins and others to support kavanaugh. their struggle was clear in their comments. >> it was a difficult decision. i think you will be confirmed. >> reporter: collins gave a speech lasting more than 40 minutes. she said that report's emotional testimony was not corroborated eyewitness news. >> the allegations failed to meet the more likely than not standard. therefore, i do not believe that these charges can barely prevent judge kavanaugh from serving on the court. >> reporter: for michalski, it was an issue of his comments and press of behavior during his testimony which called the american bar association to reassess their support and prompted justice john paul stevens to withdraw his support . >> i think his performance during the hearings caused me to change my mind. >> he is a good man and is clearly a learned judge. in my conscience i could not conclude that he is the right person for the court at this time.>> reporter: a political subplot -- science profess

jeff flake said there is no additional corroborating information about the kavanaugh allegations but the left, alaska's lisa murkowski's is most difficult to read it. i'll have been lobbied by george w. bush and former secretary of state condoleezza rice who both worked very closely with kavanaugh and are trying to close the deal. lindsey graham says the undecided should feel better, democrats were never going to be satisfied. >> why don't we dock in the water and vote. enough, enough already. >> today, his high school and college friends wrote about something that came up in last week's hearing. they said the devil's crack triangle referred to a drinking game similar to quarters which is what kavanaugh had testified and noted it was not. >> mike, thank you. the trump administration is pushing hard to get the votes to confirm kavanaugh but democrats are not giving up calling the report a sham. john roberts joins us now with that part of the story. >> after three bruising months the confirmation process with so many twists and turns, the white house believes it is closing in on the finish line. but it is leaving nothing to chance. >> i think he is very well. i think he is doing fairly well

bush. my thanks to both of you. senator boxer, i again with you and the caveat there's much we don't know. do you think the cnn president, jeffker, a colleague of our, a competitor of ours, has hit the point over confronting the r rhetoric at the house. >> i'm proud of him. he's going up against a president who has a large following in the country who says the press is the enemy of people and praised a congressman who actually assaulted someone from the press. look, donald trump has weaponized politics with names attached. every one of those people, individuals, who this person or people tripe etried to attack, people have been named by donald trump over and over. you've heard it. you've seen it. lock her up. low iq. it goes on and on. president obama. he still doesn't think he's a citizen and all the rest. it goes on and all. he weaponized politics. he named the names, including cnn. yes, i think it was good that the head of cnn stood his ground. it took donald trump days to say oh, yeah, the saudis shouldn't have done what they did to khashoggi. this goes on and on. it's a moment and either we're going to grab this moment a

brian: keep in mind, jeff flake's main problem with the tone and tenor of donald trump, we know that. brett kavanaugh is a busht trump going too traditional, too mainstream republican with this safe pick. jeff flake would have to go against himself to vote against this. murkowski is moderate. collins is moderate. i never label jeff flake as moderate. >> before forget collins and murkowski were not yes a month ago. in private kavanaugh convinced them that he believed roe v. wade was settled law. pro-choice republicans and murkowski and collins seemed to be assuaged and concerned. it's a whole different ball game, in the end, collins and murkowski are important but it comes down to jeff flake. pete: got it. we'll follow the cloture vote in two hours. >> maybe two hours. 10:30 eastern roughly, give or take. brian: big risk by blue or red state democrats, when donnelly said good-bye. tester said i'm not going to do it, heidi heitkamp, said i'm out. only democrat standing is manchin. >> what grassley told you last hour is news. look in the fbi report can't get into details there are multiple of occasions people on

jeff flake said there's no additional corroborating information about the kavanaugh allegations. but alaska's lisa murkowski is the most difficult to read saying she's made no decision. all have been personally lobbied by george w. bush and condoleezza rice who worked closely with kavanaugh and are trying to close the deal. at this critical stage all are reading body language and listening to every single word from the undecided senators. the emotions are clearly running high ahead of a make or break vote tomorrow on the senate floor. lou? lou: thank you very much. as the kavanaugh confirmation process has now moved into its final stages, a handful of key senators hold the key to his fate. and here as best we can determine is how they're likely to vote. as we just reported, north dakota democrat heidi high camp said she's vote no. she's i in so much trouble in hr campaign for reelection that she's simply given up hope and doesn't care much about what north dakota voters are thinking. so much so that she's called off a debate that had been scheduled for tomorrow. west virginia democrat john manchin appears positive saying he's looking at kavanaugh, not as a high school or college kid but as an adult. and his years in

jeff flake, arizona, susan collins from maine. brad blakeman is with us, former deputy assistant with bush 43. you have any reading on those three senators because they hold the nomination in the balance? >> i don't but only republicans can stop kavanaugh taking the bench. if that were the case, for november. we would blame republicans. we elected a majority for very purpose to get us conservative judges not rule from the bench, will interpret the law. that doesn't happen i think there will be huge backlash on republicans. but if it does happen i think wind will be at our backs. people will be excited. democrats will be demoralized. as you pointed out in your commentary the american people are fair, just, don't like what is being done to kavanaugh. democrats way overstepped their bounds. american people saw it. they don't like it. stuart: what about red state democrats? three in the senate, joe manchin, west virginia, joe donnelly indiana, heidi heitkamp in north dakota, they all voted for who is now justice gorsuch. donnelly is already a no. what about the other two? do you think they have go

bush they looked into the background and went ahead. give them five days to look at this and go forward. everyone is praising jeffnd al all of a sudden reprieve on the kavanaugh nomination. red state democrats who haven't committed yet. predictable the democrats say i have a problem with the time frame. steve: we need to know about the scope. it shouldn't be so limited and the white house is calling the shots according to the democrats. the president yesterday tweeted this out. wow, just starting to hear the democrats, who are only thinking obstruct and delay are starting to put out the word that the time and scope of the fbi looking into judge kavanaugh and witnesses is not enough. hello. for them it will never be stuff. stay tuned and watch. there was some word yesterday that the white house had said okay, you are only going to talk to those four people that dr. ford had mentioned. and, yet, we already know that is not true because apparently the fbi interviewed debra ramirez who was at yale and has suggested that mr. kavanaugh exposed himself. ainsley: she is the avenatti client? steve: no. that is the second

jeff flake could do surprisingly well. they could at least embarrass and perhapsrt him cause them to lose in november, which is the effective previous insurgencies we have seen. kathy kennebunk against george h.w. bush1992 -- patty cannon run it -- pat buchanan against george h.w. bush in 1992. certainly given what we know now, far in some radical shift in the political climate. example, a blockbuster report from robert mueller that could force trump out of office. barring that, whoever runs will not win but it is a race worth doing to affirm conservative principles and acute that flame alive that can to keep that flame alive for future generations. host: would you rather have a democrat then president trump? guest: absolutelyguest:. i voted for hillary clinton in 2016. the first time i ever voted for a democrat in my life. i'm certainly not going to vote for donald trump. i open to alternatives. -- i am open to alternatives. i would hope they would nominate someone like michael bloomberg, and i would not be happy if they nominate someone like bernie sanders or elizabeth warren. i have vast disagreements with bernie sanders and elizabeth lauren, but i would vote for them over donald trump because th