tom: jeff currie will be out on digital with francine at the 5:00 hour. the idea that copper is the oil of 2002. it is like oil, it has a life of its own. it has massively different investment issues versus peak oil and the ability to bring on shale. there is no shale for this copper. jonathan: there is no shale. there is no dogecoin for this. that is a great elon musk impression. tom: i don't have a checkbook. jonathan: you should do s&l. we would all love that. tom: the only way i would get away with it. there is dr. weinberg. jonathan: let's start with payrolls monday. what explained that massive mess? carl: i think we were too optimistic. people saw the growth in demand and thought supply was going to grow. what do we do? we look for alternative sources of stuff. part of it is bidding up prices of the stuff we have. going back to david hume, we are going to see an increase in imports. we are seeing an increase in imports in countries and its stimulus and monetary policy to bridge this gap. that is where we go. stuff becomes a little more expensive for

how do you adjust to what jeff currie talks about? is not clear it has a major impact on gdp. there are positives and negatives from changes in commodity demand supplies in some areas, positive, in other areas negative. clearly there is a reason to expect much higher inflation numbers in the short-term. that is particular true for headlines. it is true for core as well. over the next couple of months we will see stronger inflation. 2.5% for core pce, maybe 2.7% in may for core cpi. i do think that is one of the reasons why the markets are having a difficult time at the moment. weaker numbers on payrolls, at the same time the highest inflation numbers are just ahead of us. i think ultimately it will be more temporary. a lot of drivers of inflation, not just commodity numbers, but also things like the base effect and some of the impact of reopening on server prices, a lot of those are short-term. it does not tell you a lot about inflation in 2022, when we think we will probably be back to about 2% for core pce. jonathan: in the meantime

jeff currie have been talking about this for a while.re always talking about the character of the commodity market, the energy market, compared to equities, and why we can't price in this demand shock you expect right now. can you run us through that? damien:damien: let me give you one example. airline stocks in the u.s. are back to pre-covid level. jet demand in the u.s. is only halfway back to its pre-covid levels. the commodity has to reflect that. if jet prices had recovered, we would be swimming without the need to demand. so commodity markets are real assets, and a price today's mismatch between demand and supply. so demand rising next month is very important to months rally in commodity prices, but you couldn't have tried not to months ago. i think that is a critical one -- tried that one two months ago. i think that is a critical one. it is lumber, steel, iron ore, corn, retail gasoline on the east coast. that is what the next few months in commodities or lightly to deliver. tom: shale and technology came to the rescue. i'm going

jonathan: that is the line jeff currie of goldman is pushing, too.ead a of any three aspects -- amrita sen of energy aspects. thank you. they go on to say, "it is often better to travel than arrive from an investment perspective. we think it is better to be more selective and a tad more defensive." tom: i would say on this monday after jobs there's 14 opinions out there. the bulls reaffirm, the bears reaffirm. as we heard from our guest an hour ago, it is going to be a lot of fun the summer. jonathan: i agree. the line from morgan stanley was execution risk. going into the data, exit cushion risk. i think we sought -- the data, execution risk. i think we saw that in a lot of places, and we saw it on the data friday, too. tom: how do you recalibrate your gdp guess? the morgan stanley call is boom gdp, then it gets slow somewhat quickly. amrita pushed against that. jonathan: i don't think demand is the question. it is executing the supply side of the story that gets a little trickier. tom: fair. jonathan: there's a seasonal factor in the friday point a

jeff currie spoke to bloomberg earlier about the dynamics at play in the commodity market. ities depend on the level of demand, not the growth rate. to be bullish on commodities it is the level of demand versus level of supply. the growth rate on steel demand in china is down. you see that down 7%. the reason why it is bullish is because of issues around emissions they have cut supplies so demand is down, but the supply is now more, which has created the bullish dynamic. alix: joining us now is tyler broda. a lot to unpack. the first question is the fade we saw today. normal fade or something else? tyler: i think it is normal fade. we have had such a strong move over last 48 hours this kind of reaction is normal market behavior. look at the charts for anything longer than a week. a pretty sharp bottom left to top right movement. guy: normal market behavior. does this feel like normal market do you? tyler: i probably should not have used that term. if you are look back two months ago to $230 iron ore, it is a nonsense number. we also look at this number at this point and see

mike santoli on the market action and jeff curry from goldman sachs. mike, start us off with this big move higher we are seeing. it looks pretty broad. >> yeah, sara, pretty decent levitation today the growth stocks are doing more than their share today but the s&p 500 is only 1% from the old highs. we had two weeks of pressure we got down to a 4%, 4.5% pullback from the peak is that enough we'll see. last time it didn't take much longer than six weeks of this kind of range before you pubustd out of it to the upside. right now it's low volume. i usually don't make a fuss about low volume this is much more about sellers not taking the opportunity to jump in with the s&p at 4200, at least not very observedly. but nasdaq 100 here, obviously the laggard by 12 or so -- by 6 or so percentage points year to date take a look back here, march, april, when you had that pretty big gap between the dow and nasdaq 100 banks leading, tech down here you have it again so maybe this is a little catch-up move by the ndx it was not a return to leadership in the big cap gr

that is the goldman argument with jeff currie. that is why they are thinking perhaps a move to $80 on crude. lisa: the other side of that is that all of the suppliers are ramping up production, and that will come online just as the demand shock, the actual increase in demand shock, decreases later in the year, when people get back to normal. jonathan: coming up, congressman warren davidson from ohio. from new york city this morning, good morning. equity futures unchanged. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden says he's open to compromise on raising the corporate tax rate. the president has called on congress to boost the rate from 21% to 28%, but he now says he doesn't have to be exactly what he says. democratic senator joe manchin has said he could support a 25% corporate rate. the u.s. will support a proposal to waive intellectual property protections for coronavirus vaccines. the u.s. -- the u.s. trade rep is in it

tom: shout to jeff currie of goldman sachs, who just nailed this call.e said we are going to go higher, and we did that. let's get right to it with jack fitzpatrick. there's 14 things to talk about in washington, including the brawl last night between the washington capitals and the new york rangers. we will skip that. i want to go to the unspoken, which is the first 100 days of malarkey of people like you. how were the first 100 days of citizen trump? jack: of citizen trump, not well. we have seen a ton of statements that he would probably like to put on facebook and twitter, and will not be able to for at least the foreseeable future. but he's putting much in control of the republican party still, and we are seeing that in the fight between liz cheney and who could replace her in the house republican leadership position. so trump is still trump within the political party. he is still the leader of the party effectively, but clearly doesn't seem particularly happy with development on social media. tom: let's get out front of the story. how will he and h

the supply response on the crude side might be quicker, what even goldman sachs and jeff currie's pushbackinst that, that it will not spohn quickly enough. tom: the shock on a jobs friday is the rate of change. let's go to the rate of change in washington right now, with emily wilkins. my have to go to the voting rights story. florida, -- i'm confused, who loses from vote restrictions? i'm seeing percolation that obviously democrats and liberals lose, but even republicans may lose from voting rights changes in the southern part of the nation and ohio. is that true? emily: well, look at exactly what they are changing here, tom. a number of these bigger restrictions -- they are restrictions that would impact mail-in voting, one of the ones that we are seeing go through the texas legislature right now is saying that local officials cannot preemptively mail out absentee ballots, even those who apply for them. who mailed them out in the last election? it was more democrats. you say way more -- you see way more democrats -- you also see restrictions in urban areas, limiting the amount of polling

jeff currie's view earlier on. memorial day is not that far away.to get back together. -- to get its act together. i appreciate we have a short-term issue with the pipeline, but nevertheless, driving is coming forward. people are flying. jet fuel demand is going to start picking up. the demand story is certainly beginning to line up pretty sharply now. alix: that demand story picking up because of supply issues in brazil. goldman sachs has an $80 call on brent, and $1100 now for copper. what is interesting about that call is they don't see that as a china led sorry. different from what we are used to seeing. that is -- china led story. that is not what we are going to see this time. guy: you're starting to see china substitution. that is already starting to come into the story, too. alix: another part of the oil and gas world's consolidation. the latest example is today, bonanza creek energy announced they will merge to form the biggest pure play in commodities. joining us now is been -- is ben dell, kimmeridge energy co-founder, who will now serve

jeff currie was here with francine, of goldman sachs. i like what you said about iron ore, which is quoted in shanghai, and singapore, i believe in australia as well. iron ore is sort of the china commodity that really indicates this boom. jonathan: the aussie doing nicely as well in the fx market. cable up by 0.8%, through $1.40. tom: that surprises me. all of a sudden, we pop up three big figures. one dollar 41 cents, even $1.42 in the last few minutes. in the yield space, just as importantly, that dynamic between longer-term yields, what they did, and shorter-term yields, what they did not do is key. tom: the fed going nowhere -- jonathan: the fed going nowhere anytime soon. on the s&p 500 would look like this. in the bond market, coming in almost a basis point now. prude, $65.19 -- crude, $65.19 on wti. you mentioned this over the last couple of weeks. when does the noise really start? tom: sooner than we think. i think people were humbled last time around. stronger euro, what does that mean for the europe export juggernaut? jonathan

jeff. >>> high stakes tonight. we were talking about this, a spot in the playoffs is on the line between the warriors and lakers. we'll hear from steph curryoach kerr right before tip-off. ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. or visit and xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. >>> we're saying this a lot the last couple of months. the giants just keep winning. pretty amazing. tonight in cincinnati, kevin gossman was the story. he gave up just one hit in six innings with eight strikeouts. fifth inning now, the relative newcomer, came over from the yankees, he knocks in the first run of the game with this rbi single. the giants add three more runs in the ninth inning. this game just now final. giants beat the reds 4-0. they