we will speak to scott sheffield, ceo of pioneer natural resources, and jeff currie of goldman sachs. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this tuesday, march 31. congratulations. we made it through a terrible first quarter, and we could be ending on something of an up note. futures dipping into positive territory after the first quarter since 2008. yields down by about three basis points, but in europe, still seeing some selling. nice pop after yesterday's disastrous performance, but still, you can't call any kind of victory within the crude market. time now for today's top market moving news from our washington and new york bureaus. congressional republicans and democrats are preparing for a fourth round of stimulus. joining me is kevin cirilli. the ink hasn't even dried on third stimulus package. what are we talking about for phase four? kevin:kevin: i was speaking with sources on both sides of the aisle, and the conversations are starting first and foremost on where the holes are left as a result of the latest round of economic stimulus. they want to see how quickly they a

jeff currie in the 7:00 hour across bloomberg. please stay with us. from london, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> banks are reacting positively and taking responsibility. that is an important step for their own protection, ensuring corporate responsibility in a difficult time for our economies. if banks decide not to comply with the conditions, we will decide on taking other measures. we can take measures in italy. francine: that was mr. enria of the ecb. that is about what europe asked banks to do on friday, pushing back dividends and buybacks at least until october. a number of banks complied with that, in upper have yet to do so. you modelback to how the economy in this unprecedented epidemic let's get back to erik nielsen of unicredit. lasts, the this lockdown and what we are seeing right now for 3, 6 months, is it inflationary, or could it be deflationary for the world? you: that depends on if think that the policy measures will do too little or too much, in a sense. if you come through, then forget about the next few months, where we will

what happens to the houston economy is oil stays at $45 a barrel or goes to high pau 30s as jeff curry suggested last hour it could. >> we're not seeing that much of an impact. but one thing we're hearing and obviously brian bought it up is the sarah conference was canceled i know with our firm and others we talked to, investors we talked to, behavior is going to be changing here over the next couple of months and so we expect demand is going to be down that's not good for pricing. that's probably not good for houston real estate. definitely is going to be b a change in consumer b hab er hab the next several months. >> i'm not surprised because in a way this move in the oil markets has happened so quickly. it's been a month or two of this plunge so i'm just curious what happens when we get down to this level because for the u.s. overall, low gas prices don't help as much they did for the consumer and low energy prices do hurt one of the stronger parts of the economy >> yeah, well you look at it right now. there's going to be a big benefit for consumers. when the lower natural gas price

joining me now is jeff currie, goldman sachs head of commodities research. de surplus by april. bulltick's kathryn rooney vera with us as well. crude in the teens, can that really happen? jeff: crude somewhere in the world is likely to hit those numbers. it is critical to make the point that the market is going to be indiscriminate who gets hit. to understand whether this dynamic is likely to entail, we expect a crude build of 6 million barrels per day in april. we have never seen a build of this magnitude or this velocity, and as it hits the system, the ,uestion will be the logistics pipelines, storage facilities. if it hits a bottleneck somewhere along the way, where it hits the bottleneck is where you see the real downside risk. in2016, will prices minnesota actually went negative. why? because the producer had to pay somebody to get rid of it. you couldn't push another barrel into the system. when francisco makes that point about prices dipping down in the teens, what he's indicating is when the system blows out, you breach capacity to be able to deliver

jeff currie of goldman sachs, thank you so much. me in new york is mark rossano of c6 capital. would you be buying here? mark: at this point, i think gold, i do agree. i have been a gold bug for a while, and i think you will continue to see this go. the biggest knock on gold has always been that there is no yield. when you have negative rates, central banks being so we continue to see inflation creep higher, all of a sudden that you will look better and better on a real-time basis, which is why i think gold is going to continue to see that person to the upside. alix: do you feel like oil has a bottom here? mark: i think you do get that continued deterioration in pricing. i don't believe in a v-shaped recovery. we've heard about a v-shaped recovery since 2015, and we have just never really gotten it. to go back to 2019, we had a demand problem, which is why we already had a 2.1 million barrel a day cut. so the demand problem was still there. it was a supply problem, but more because you had a demand issue. the demand issue continued

we'll speak with jeff curry about that there's a record amount of trading in 401(k)'s right now, we'll get you the numbers and have the latest on the robin hood outage today. we begin with this big rally and bob pisani has the numbers for us >> we are at the highs for the day, up almost 800 points. and i want to show you a chart of the dow futures prior to the open here, we went from 26,000 earlier on, to 25,000. a 1,000 point move in about 3 hours, back to 26,200. you just don't see that very often. in terms of what was really moving, take a look at the dow movers they had the stuffing kicked out of them last week. visa, look at microsoft, microsoft has regained not quite, but almost half of the losses in the last week and a half or so one sector really not participating in the same way is some of the big bank stocks. somewhat flattish compared to everything else. extreme oversale conditions, and hopes for fiscal and monetary stimulus around the world. >> we'll dig into that in a moment >> let's turn to rates now 30 year yields hitting fresh record lows. now we're seeing a bit of a re

we'll speak with jeff curry about that there's a record amount of trading in 401(k)'s right now,

. >> jeff, i appreciate you bearing with us today, being patient, we'll talk to you again soon jeff currie of goldman sachs our breaking news conch will continue tonight i'll see you on our special report tonight at 7:00 p.m that does it for us. kelly, i've done it again, but i so much appreciate you bearing with us there as we got through these interviews >> it's great stuff, all week, as always, scott wapner. appreciate it. i'm kelly evans. we do have a rare up session on wall street today, but not without plenty of drama. the dow fell more than 700 points at the lows we've rallied more than 500 at the highs and up 219 right now tech, interestingly enough is the big driver of today's move higher take a look right now. the s&p -- for the dow, that's 1% gain, s&p, a little less than that and also rebounding strongly today. we just heard jeff currie of goldman's thoughts on this oil is up after hitting the lowest level in almost two decades yesterday. that said, wall street now not so bullish, i should say, on earnings estimates as you can see, now bracing for an earnings recession with pre

we will speak to scott sheffield, ceo of pioneer natural resources, and jeff currie of goldman sachs.break: americas" on this tuesday, march 31. congratulations. we made it through a terrible first quarter, and we could be ending on something of an up note. futures dipping into positive territory after the first quarter since 2008. yields down by about three basis points, but in europe, still seeing some selling.

we appreciate it >> thanks, scott >> that's chamath palihapitiya i want to jump quickly to jeff curry, as oil is on its betts day ever with goldman sachs, the head of global commodities it's good to have you back so now what in oil >> i think we have more downside when you look at the demand losses, they're unprecedented. not only in oil, but in the entire commodity complex, and particularly those commodities that are more leveraged to this whole idea of self-isolation you look at not only is oil down, because we're not moving arou around, but also things like beef that are leveraged to restaurant douemand, they're do, day after day. when we look at the entire commodity complex, what we're arguing now is that prices simply need to go to cash support. to go down to those levels where you begin to shut in production. we saw wpi go down to $20 a barrel yesterday, actually, midland, the wti that's further west in texas went in and had a teen handle on it yesterday, which just underscores the type of price levels we're going through to force that correction there's another dynamic that's a

haidi: that was the head of recessions, jeff curry speaking with us. mobile is cutting back it is another sign of the effect of falling oil prices. they will cut production by about 10% but sticking with the long-term plan to triple output by 2024. exxon fell more than 5%, making it one of the worst performance is on the energy index. 737 makes a step towards reinstatement saying the certification fight could be a few weeks away. the regulators said the last software reviews are almost complete and pilots will test the new system soon. haidi: before we get over to the china open, let's get a quick look at how markets are trading at the moment. catch up orplaying catch down to those hefty losses in the wall street session overnight. we are looking at six and seven month lows. japan is tightening border restrictions with south korea. we are seeing further downside. we have seen,hat a mixed bag of retail sales continuing to see weakness. new zealand also coming under pressure. have the china open in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> 9:00 a.m. in beij

alix: totally, although i have seen jeff currie warning of an oil rate shock.arry knapp, ironsides partners managing partner, and simona mocuta, state street global senior economist. basically, at some point, you are going to see higher public debt levels that will become a permanent feature of our economies and be accompanied by private debt cancellation because there would be so much loss of income that these private sector companies just cannot pay it back. what do you make of this as related to, say, down the road years?w months, a few barry: well, i think we reached a major inflection point. i tried to write about five macro themes i thought would persist as long as the decade. one of those was over the last 30 years, we had this massive labor supply shock. the entrance of china and the soviet bloc into the industrialized world increased the supply of industrialized labor from 750 million workers basically 2 billion by 2010. all of that labor supply and the demographic changes, that really diminished or increased the demand for capital. we reached an infle

alix: jeff currie had a really provocative note out on goldman sachs.ne call was 92% of world gdp is in some form of shutdown or lockdown. that to me was really staggering. michael: that is what it leads to in the oil markets. they are predicting 22% decline in global demand, more than the united states produces, so it is not just canada that has a double shock. the u.s., we talked with brock kaplan last week, his district is going to get really hard. it is shutdowns in the midwest and the permian that sent us into a mini recession that people didn't completely notice, but we are facing that again. we are facing the double whammy of the economy shut down and a lot of projects in the oil patch that are not going to start up again until oil prices get much higher. that is going to lead people out of work in a situation where the government can't lift them up by providing bridge loans because there just won't be the demand afterwards. alix: let's wrap it up here. what is the trade, the thing you are watching and recommending most? fxssili: i think in the m

jeff. >>> well, up next, steph curry one-on-one with dr. fauci, the highlights of their very enlightening chat. when we face adversity, we find a way through it. it's about taking care of each other. it's the small parts that make a big difference. at chevy, we promise to do ours. we're offering chevy owners complimentary onstar crisis assist services and wifi data. if you need a new chevy, interest-free financing for 84 months - with deferred payments for 120 days on many of our most popular models. you may even shop online and take delivery at home. it's just our way of doing our part... ♪wild thing, you make my heart sing.♪ ♪you make everything... groovy...♪ done yet? yeah, yeah, sorry, sorry. you sure? hmm.mmm. ♪come on, come on, wild thing. if you ride, you get it. geico motorcycle. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. >>> the world of basketball and coronavirus collided today, this morning, steph curry doing his part to spread accurate information. curry interviewed dr. anthony fauci, the country's leading immunolog

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jeff. we'll see you soon. >>> up next at 11:00, want to hang out with stephen curry tomorrow? you can chat with him. we'll tell you how. and a bright idea from the oakland a's. and it's all about your kids. >>> happening now, san jose earthquakes player has created his own stay at home challenge to keep kids active. defender tommy thompson posted a soccer trick on his social media. he told kids to try to replicate it, did some creative things with it. full video's on our website. check it out. we'll be right back. can we go get some ice cream? alright, we gotta stop here first. ♪ ♪ from smarter atms, to after hours video tellers ♪ ♪ comcast business is connecting thousands of banks to technology that turns everyday transactions into extraordinary experiences. hi there. how are you? do you have any lollipops in there? (laughing) no, sorry. we're helping all kinds of businesses go beyond customer expectations. how can we help you? we find a way through it. it's about taking care of each other. it's the small parts that make a big difference. at chevy, we promise to do ours. we're offering chevy owners

curry goldman sachs jeff says oil has more downside risk, highlights from our interview ahead.omberg. ♪ >> this is not a bailout. this is considering providing certain things for certain industries. >> our government understands the disruptive impact the virus is happening -- having on businesses and workers. >> activity is likely to weaken materially in the u.k. over the coming months. >> monetary policy still works. >> the bank will take all necessary further steps to support the u.k. economy and financial system. >> we cannot do anything about what the effects are on the supply, but we can help sustain demand. >> our government will be creating a billion-dollar covid-19 response fund. haidi: the policymakers around the world speaking about what they are planning to do to sustain their economies in the face of the coronavirus impact. australia and the u.k. are set to roll out massive stimulus plans to confront the coronavirus. the effectiveness of the plans will be a key factor in the near term economic impact of the virus. jenny zeng joins us now out of hong kong. great to h