phenomenon, i am joined from santa barbara, california, by "newshour weekend" special correspondent jeff greenfield. >> jeff let's give this a little bit of historical context. when has an october surprise affected the results of a presidential election? >> well, can you go back to 1960, whether john and robert kennedy got martin luther king out of a rural georgia jail where his family feared for his life. king's father had endorsed nixon, there was spike in big cities and very close states like new jersey, il90, might have changed because of that event you could quoth henry kissinger, nixon was probably headed for a landslide. the use of george w. bush's youthful drunk driving arrests, his camp, and 2004 hurt him. the most on point example of example was back in '92 when a special prosecutor, looking at reagan's dealings this iran, pointed a finger to george bush who was up for reelection, citing he might have known, he was very angry about that. we never know with had those october surprises could have made a difference but those are plausible candidates. >> there are contenders, and could there

more analysis of the presidential race, i'm joined now by newshour weekend special correspondent jeff greenfield, who is in santa barbara, california. so, jeff, given the topsy-turvy nature of this campaign cycle and really that the news seems to be what happens off the trail not necessarily what they're doing as they campaign, are there still factors that could impact the election in the the next couple of weeks? >> there are times when we've seen late-breaking events change the outcome. i think the one regan-carter debate in 1980, which happened just a week before the election, helped turn that into a landslide. the campaign of george w. bush has always argued that they lost the popular vote because of a late-breaking story about bush's youthful drunk driving arrests that cost him, they think, a few million evangelicals. but by and large, this is the period-- debates are over-- when the race stabilizes, which is why a five-point lead with one week to go means much more than a five-point lead with a month to go. so the hope of the trump campaign is that there are these people who have not told

analysis of the presidential race, i am joined now by "newshour weekend" special correspondent jeff greenfield, who is in santa barbara, california. jeff, it seems in the past few news cycles, we've kind of seen donald trump take center stage for all the allegations and accusations made against him. and we've actually seen hillary clinton kind of quietly drift off to the side. now she's in debate prep mode. >> it may be she's following an old line, m napoleon said it ner interfere with your opponent when he's in theçó process of destroying himself. it's not hopeful to the trouble campaign to have endless allegations. the question is just how much he's been hurt. this is one of the areas if you're obsessed with this campaign and read every pole your head's going to explode because the washington point has trump only 4 points down and the journal poll has him more. the question is what's going on in the states. if you're a trump support you take in in a, ohio and iowa he's relatively close. if you're a clinton supporter she seems to be opened up a huge lead and more to the point, if you look at

in tonight's signature segment, special correspondent jeff greenfield looks at toomey's challenge to win a second term, and particularly the dynamic of being on the ballot the same time as donald trump. >> reporter: this is trump country: wilkes-barre, in northeast pennsylvania-where his fervent backers offer cheers for the republican presidential nominee. >> everyone in pennsylvania wants trump you know. ( cheers ) >> reporter: but outside the event, trump backers offer tough words for the party's incumbent republican senator, pat toomey, who is the only senator running for reelection who hasn't said whether he supports or will vote for trump. >> he should endorse trump. he's a republican. he should've done it. >> he's not listening to the will of the people. >> i don't like the arrogance, and he's part of the establishment. >> reporter: a day later, at a toomey breakfast 100 miles to the south, in the philadelphia suburbs, the senator offers them no comfort. >> i had hoped that donald trump would persuade me to be an enthusiastic supporter. that had been what i hoped. i've supporte

newshour weekend special correspondent jeff greenfield reports, that format has tripped up many candidates in the past. >> reporter: this is what most debates look like-the candidates at a lectern. and many recent presidential debates have featured the candidates and the moderator sitting down at a table. but tomorrow's debate features a very different format: a "town hall" meeting, in which undecided voters-selected by the gallup organization-put questions directly to the candidates. it's a format that offers special opportunities-and pitfalls. for instance, a question can sometimes be unclear, as in this example from 1992. >> how has the national debt personally affected each of your lives? and if it hasn't, how can you honestly find a cure for the economic problems of the common people if you have no experience in what's ailing them? >> reporter: president george h.w. bush was clearly confused by what she was asking. >> well, i think the national debt affects everybody. >> you, on a personal basis-- how has it affected you? >> has it affected you personally? >> i'm not sure i get-- help

to go to jeff greenfield's point, i think what republicans negative campaign trump's running might endtheir vote more than it hurts the democratic vote, because you have suburban women in philadelphia who say, i am sorry, i will not vote for him. those who might not have -- those who might have voted for cap to me are not voting. and those who are mad at him for notfully -- mad at him for only supporting donald trump will not vote for him. as a republican, i am worried about the senate. even i, who am pretty panicked or as others call me, a bedwetter, i am not worried about the house. republicans can lose a lot of seats in the house, but had democrats known they would be in such a strong position on year ago, they could have really raised a war chest and recruited great candidates to run in districts to come into play because the top of the typical -- ticket would do so badly. no one anticipated this. candidates weren't recruited. there just aren't real democratic candidate. al: i agree. i do think it is even a topic of discussion today, shows what does raise has become. charlie: i wil

is conventional norms apply, and i remember jeff greenfield california -- but if they do, trump has had a terrible three days. she's renewed his attacks on miss universe, angry at his advisors, and nothing has gone right. that's the state of like if conventional norms apply. this electorate is not like a speedboat. it is like a battleship. it does not move quickly. i don't think there is a huge change from monday night. i think the two things encouraging to the democrats are that he has so turned off a number of young people. i was at a college in philadelphia. certainly soldiers. they were unimpressed with her but they were really impressed , with him. secondly, i think he offended more african-americans who have been reasonably more passive. he is attacking barack obama who , has a 52% approval rating. in that sense, it has been a good week for hillary clinton. i don't want to exaggerate. it's still a close race. she has the advantage, but 72% makes sense, but that means there is 28% that could go the other way. charlie: what about this notion this notion that he knows that he did not

jeff greenfield, what are you looking for tonight? the media expectations game here is crucial?uperficial, the first thing i'm looking for is the handshake. whether it happens. >> yes, me too. >> yeah, because in 1990, ann richards won the governorship because her opponent refused to shake hands at a debate. on the other hand what we saw at the first debate, the smiles and the pat on the back donald trump gave clinton, i think -- i actually think, having been in rooms of debate prep, they are devoting seriesus attention to just how formal that handshake could be and how quickly she could disengage. and i know it sounds trivial but that first impression visual is very significant. and the second thing that i'm really, as a former debate preparer, really puzzled about is what does hillary clinton say, if donald trump goes full bore after the accusations of bill clinton's predatory behavior. not affairs, but the paula jones and juanita broad drick and others. what does she say and we need an answer. >> and it is putting fact into fiction in context. i'm out of time, carol, you've b

but i would also suggest as jeff greenfield recently commented, it's pretty important to show you're nonsupporters of people that didn't vote for you. that they're important too if you're going to unified the country and govern. thirdly, there is all of you, the press. you're expected, you're expecting to be engaged in presidential transition in the first 100 days. that's critical. and then there is foreign leaders. because the new president is stepping on the world stage, in governor clinton's case kind of for the first time. that's critical. threaten is the governors, which i think increasingly play an important role in our governance, our country and so forth. max and have i talked about when we engaged with the national governors association quite interested in the transition. and then there is the washington, what i'll call establishment for lack of a better way to refer to it. and that's a mirriat of operation, not just industry and business, but myriad of organizations that have their own specific focus and agenda that have to be engaged during the transition and during the fi

jeff: that's the core thesis when you think further out. once you get to that state you are talking about, it's probably 2019-2020. overall supplies from the low-cost greenfield the sweet spot is 17-18. they start to taper off in 2019. the other source of supply is shale. the marginal barrel, and that is what response when you get to the $50-50 five dollars barrel range. we are years off from that stage you are talking about. inhow many producers are shale? do you have a better grasp than we do last year and what they are endgame is? jeff: what we do know is that you can separate them into three buckets. the low-cost, holiday -- high-quality assets. there is a higher cost, lower quality assets in the bucket. but the permian guys are becoming competitive even against the low-cost players. that is where we have seen response and drilling activity. what is slowing declines in production in the u.s. in the ones that opec cut are likely to see in market share into 2017. >> within this range, wind you know which way it will break? do you just have to wait to see price? or there's some come the other indicator that will tell you below the moving average of 43? have

jeff is widely seen to be a shrewd businesses. -- businessman. is it no coincidence that he is a seller now? >> if you follow rich greenfieldt saying he's wrong. to some degree the evidence is right there. the ratings for these cable networks consistently go down. the general trajectory is down much across the board. there is clearly pressure from hulu to getand content elsewhere from cheaper. time warner is a legacy media company to some degree. this was a great offer price, way higher than the $85 per share offer. this is even beyond that. shareholders should to some degree say he did up the evidence in front of us. >> if at&t were here they would say wait a second, that's true for the turner, but this is got hpo and warner and those things are really valuable -- hbo and warner and those are valuable. >> i think we all believe that for a long time now and it feels is the next leg of that trade of the media consolidation. david: to be fair i do see this from both sides. at&t also bought directv 18 months ago and i thought mike white, the ceo directv did great job of selling at that price. i thought oh my god, this is a dec