newshour weekend special correspondent jeff greenfield is here to help us make sense of things. jeff? >> reporter: thanks, alison. on tuesday night, watching the election returns come in, what should you look for, hour by hour, as the polls close from east to west? we're going to take you through the night as it might unfold, but one key caution: polls closing don't necessarily mean we'll know who won; that can take much more time. >> reporter: at 7 p.m., we're using eastern standard time throughout, polls close in six states. indiana-- where running mate mike pence is governor-- will almost surely go for donald trump. but indiana could tell us something important about later states as sean trende, senior election analyst for real clear politics, notes. >> that's a state that mitt romney won by eleven points in 2012. so if donald trump is over that, if he's up around 15%, 16%, maybe even approaching george w. bush's 20% win from 2004, then we'll know we've got a race on our hands. >> reporter: indiana is also the site of one of the key u.s. senate races: democrats need to gain fi

partly because of what jeff greenfield is describing. nate silver's website put the odds at 70% and trump's victory at 30%. five thirty eight may have gotten it less wrong. so i talked to nate silver from what he learned from this experience and what's going to happen going forward. >> was this the greatest polling failure of modern times? >> no. this is why we think some of the discourse both before and after is a little bit irresponsible. the national polls are going to wind up being off by only two points, which is less than they were actually in 2012. in the states you see bigger polling errors in the midwest. you see clinton beat her polls in new york, in california and in oregon and washington. >> now that's interesting. i've been focusing on how state polls underestimated trump support by 7, 8%. that's way beyond the marginal of error. >> that means you rack up a huge number of popular votes and almost match obama's match popular vote so it's not simply a matter of the polls underestimating trump, not catching up to the demographi

. >> for more analysis of the presidential transition i'm joined from santa barbara by jeff greenfield. jeff, mr. trump and mr. and mrs. obama have struck a gracious tone, but this is an ugly campaign season and seems like passion is taking a little bit of a break. do you think it is going to be these passions and ugliness will bubble up again? >> you're right, donald trump and hillary clinton had gracious statements but out going senate leader, harry reid, said he fueled his campaign with bigotry and heat. kellyanne conway said there might be a lawsuit at that one. saying there's an enemies list that they have and it's also interesting to me that the transition may get ugly or even within the republican party because of some hard feelings. trump has reached out to speaker palm ryan but newt gin gingrichs supposed to play a role in this be transition, pretty hard feelings not just between republicans and democrats, but even among republicans that i'm not sure have quite called down yet. >> stewart: well if the administration starts to take shape and we start to get clues about who will

molly hemingway, senior editor at the federalist and political analyst jeff greenfield. great to have you here. dan, did journalism properly serve the public this year? >> no. not enough investigative reporting, not enough hard questioning and not enough listening p particularly throng that part of america which is called flyover between the two coasts. it was a failure, ours was not the only failure but it was a very important failure and going forward instability requires, particularly with new nations, and our nation is still a new nation from a broad historical sweep, it drives institutions to help keep the equilibrium and the press is an important institution and it needs to examine itself -- and i include myself in this -- didn't ask enough tough questions, didn't do enough deep investigative reporting. we didn't do our job as well as we could have and should have. >> doddi, do you agree? was the work not noticed by some voters? >> i believe there was a lot of work done and i think right now we're unfortunately dealing with a situation where people don't trust the

jeff greenfield in new york, thank you.body around this table there's consensus now that whether donald trump wins tonight or not he is certainly giving hillary clinton a much bigger run for the money than anybody expected. and she may lose. >> yes. the last time to jeff's point that party democrats got the candidate they wanted is 1980 if you recall. they were terrified jimmy carter was terrified that republicans could nominate howard baker who was appealable or even george h.w. bush only nominate this guy with prematurely orange hair from hollywood, reagan i think his name was and 44 states later, of course, the democrats paid dearly for it. there's no question. they wanted to run against trump. >> talk about civil war in the democratic party. i see one in the republican party. just take trade, just focus on that this issue that supposedly proceed filled donald trump. none of them agree with donald trump on trade that i'm aware of. it's been sort of a disconnect between where donald trump was and where the senators were.

jeff greenfield of "politico" and pbs newshour weekend. curt anderson, host of wnyc studio 360 and cocky roberts of abc news. i make this point, we are doing this on monday afternoon before the nation votes on tuesday. we do this not knowing who will be elected president, but we do this in the spirit that the problems and the challenges are the same for whoever is lengthed. we have significant challenges. it is an important time, and i have asked these people to come here and think about the future regardless of who hell the oval office. i begin with walter isaacson. tell me where you think we are, walter and whoever the new president is, what are the lists of challenges that he or she face. >> you know, one of the things that happened now is that for really the first time in our history, our parties are so idealogically dividerred it used to be the the liberal republicans or conservative democrats or whatever. and you didn't develop a partisan bitterness to the other side. i think we have demonized the other side in politics, and that's g

jeff greenfield, politico, and kurt andersen, wnyc, and cokie roberts. we are doing this on monday afternoon, before the nation votes on tuesday. we do this not knowing who will be elected president but we do this in the spirit that the problems and the challenges are the same for whoever is elected. we have significant challenges, it is an important time, and i've asked these people to come here and think about the future rarmdregardless of who held thel office. i begin with walter isaacson. what do you think walter whoever the new president is what is the list of challenges he or she face? >> one of the things that happens now is really for the first time in our history our parties are to ideologically subdivided and it used to be you know the liberal republicans or conservative democrats or whatever, and you didn't develop a partisan bitterness to the other side. i think we've demonized the other side in politics and that's going to be the thing that has to be healed. you know, it really does demand saying okay i'm going otry to do a team of rivals as

charlie: jeff greenfield is shaking his head. i don't know whether he was pessimistic or simply a skeptic. jeff: i am pessimistic. and thinking of f.d.r., one of the things perhaps you know a little bit more about this than i do, doris, is that when he came in the country was ready to -- let him do everything. if he wanted to be a dictator, people like william randolph hurst was saying please, go ahead. that's 180 degrees from where we are now. and one of the reasons i am pessimistic is that come january, whatever the makeup of the senate is, to try to imagine either the new president or the new congress crossing the line given the pressures on them from their base is to me to create almost an illusion. in other words, i know what the words are that everybody thinks they ought to say. but the minute that the base of the republican party says to their leadership, you've betrayed us before and we know what sean and rush are telling us and if -- if somebody wants to cross party lines for the democratic side, and the sanders-warren w

jeff greenfield has an hour by hour guide.the popular vote ever replace the electoral college? next on "pbs newshour weekend." >> pbs newshour weekend is made possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. judy and josh weston. the cheryl and philip milstein family. the john and helen glessner family trust-- supporting trustworthy journalism that informs and inspires.

here are historian doris kearns goodwin, walter issacson of the apten institute, jeff greenfield of pbsrt anderson of npr, and cokie roberts of abc news. >> i think if you ask the country, "do you want bipartisanship? do you want a cooperative political system?" the overwhelming majority will say yes. they even say yes, they'd like to see a new political party. but people also say they want to exercise more, watch documentaries and eat broccoli. ( laughter ) how they behave in the voting boothing has not yet borne that out. maybe there is-- there are people who i respect who do think at this point the disaffection may be sufficient that some kind of new political force can emerge. >> that new political force is called women. yes, because women-- >> hooray! >> rose: how can women make a difference as leaders? >> they do, in legislative bodes, they do come together, and we have lots of data on this, much more than men do. >> rose: because they listen? >> because they cooperate with each other. they particularly do on issues having to do with women, children, and families, but on other iss

. >> rose: jeff greenfield is shaking his head.w if it's because he's pessimistic. >> i'm pessimistic. try to imagine the new president or congress crossing the line given the pressures on them from their base is to me to create almost a-- an illusion. in other words, i know what the words are that everybody thinks they ought to say. but the minute that the base of the republican party says to their leadership, "you've betrayed us before. we know what russia is telling us." the minute-- "if somebody wants to cross party lines to the democratic side, and the sanders-warren wing says, no, no, no, now you're a corporate centrist. >> rose: like said in the campaign. >> the difference between where the parties were and where they are now and the belief that the other side is not just wrong but evil has permeated this political system. and that's why i'm a pessimist. >> that's-- i-- i hate to agree but-- ( laughter ) >> there's a first time for everything. >> it's not that i'd hate to agree with you, but i'd hate to agree with that set o

david brooks and jeff greenfield will join us with a look at the math just six days to the election. e to remind you that the last candidate to win the white house without those two states was jfk in 1960. before danny got what he was dreaming about for the holidays. before his mom earned 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback. [music] jess: hey look, it's those guys. shawn: look at those pearly whites, man. [music] bud: whoa, cute! shawn: shut-up. jess: are you good to drive? shawn: i'm fine. [music] [police siren] jess: how many did you have? shawn: i should be fine. jess: you should be? officer: sir, go ahead and step out of the vehicle for me. shawn: yes, sir. bud: see ya, buddy. today, shawn's got a hearing, we'll see how it goes. good luck! so, it turns out buzzed driving

and from wnet in new york, jeff greenfield, who has been reporting for the newshour weekend throughoutcampaign. so thank you to all of you for being here. i'm going to turn to you, david brooks. you just heard the democratic leader of the house of representatives talk about, frankly, the problems democrats have in states that used to be all blue. >> yeah. and it struck me that she didn't claim they were going to take over the house. a bit of realism there from nancy pelosi i think but optimism and maybe well-earned. it is still a problem for the party that white working-class voters are more and more heavily republican. one of the exciting things that happened, whether you like it or not, this year is the white working-class took over a party, and they took over a party that had formerly been a party of the rich and elites. that's an amazing thing that happens rarely in american history. >> woodruff: we have a problem with your make phone, david brooks. we'll fix that and come rights back to you. amy walter? >> hi, judy. hello. and i think this may play out in the house tonight, as we'

as jeff greenfield said, it looked like a bernie sanders or elizabeth warren ad.d off a lot of people at the "wall street journal" as well saying republicans need to start talking like that. but the conservative populism is something that wins states like michigan or pennsylvania. >> yeah, but maybe not for the reason. look, it can't be a reflection of reaction every time. if people know your record, they shouldn't be saying that you're anti-semitic. we should base our opinion based on someone's whole -- the whole record or body of work. >> right. >> i think with conservatives, see, i have always believed the conservative message can win, because if the democrat liberal message is, you know, we'll give you food stamps, how can we not beat that message? >> that's what i'm saying. that's my argument. the republican message has been the aei message. pull yourself up by your own boot straps. the invisible hand. cut taxes for corporations. that ain't doing anything. it's for people dying in michigan or pennsylvania who have seen their jobs go away and keep falling behi