jeff gundlach says this paints a negative picture. slope of the curve, which is the difference here. look how precipitous this is. look how graduate -- look how gradual this is. matt: it does not change the fact that every time we have seen a 60 basis point drop, we have had a recession, with the exception of 1985, the year jon was born. 513 is where you get my daily stolen from jeff gundlach chart. jon: the big question at the turn of 2016 is where the markets have detached from economic fundamentals. your charts say maybe not, that there is negative news, particularly and earnings recession. the big question for the ecb is qe actually working. the reason jeff gundlach did your homework, david westin gets the vote. david: thank you, john. julie: i might have to agree here. i like matt's chart very much, but i like the timeliness of david's chart as well. the problem is there has not been enough quantitative easing. buy thatknow that i argument, but i am going to give it to david. jon: i am going to give it to david as well. david: i

's happy jeff gundlach face, and also an important idea from jeff gundlach on the probability of exitingth of your skeptical. let me start with you. why is jeff gundlach right? dan: i do not think it is unlikely that we will exit the bear market. s&p, at theat the low as well, down 14%, 15% -- we come back through the correction phase. dan: i think we will see higher highs, i think it is just too early to call for those highs now. i think a lot of the rally that we have had is justified given the inflection you have seen in the data. but looking forward, there is still some headwind to the ,arket, particularly credit which i think will continue to tighten. we are still at the cycle lows. i think that bodes poorly. tom: when you look at the chart, the 10-year price, we typically look at the 10-year yield, or you look at the spread market between the two asset classes, what do you see? jeff: i see recession. tom: can you call recession off that? you have the flattest yield curve since 2008, and with spreads,have corporate which have improved in the last three weeks. but overall, three week

jeff gundlach predicts those assets will struggle in sympathy with oil, calling crude the key to everything. >> i know there's a lot of belief right now in risk markets. i think risk markets now have a very poor risk-reward setup. if we use the stock market as a proxy, it seems to me that the s&p 500 maybe has 2% of upside and probably 20% of downside for a 10-to-1 risk-reward ratio. >> last week he said double line was planning on closing out some of its stocks purchased in february. he suggests unless oil rallies another $10 a barrel or more, in his words, a lot of companies are going to go under, which will kill the banking system. on gold, he predicts prices will continue to rise and hit $1400 an ounce. gold prices today, let's have a look. just below flat. he's calling for 1400. we've seen resistance. every time we got closer to 1300, we haven't managed to push through it. generally quite bearish comments. >> and he characterizes what we've seen over the last three weeks, which the s&p has rallied, as a classic bear market rally, which is an interesting question, given we are at the se

>> i would say the markets are completely dependant on oil just like jeff gundlach said yesterday. the central banks say they adjust and i think we'll be adjusting along the way. when you look at price of oil, what really led the s&p? whether you look at the dow, it didn't do much and the s&p was up ten points, and why? energy absolutely underneath this market. f-chevron, go through the list, the refiners, what's pushing this market right now. i think jeff is right and oil is still in command of the market. >> 5% move on wti is half a percent move on the s&p 500 and you say oil is driving this market? >> well, yeah. look what's going on at least in theesing up of credit concerns. in a place here where this move in oil is now no longer a one-day move and oh, wow, sure, oil is going to rally but it's a sawtooth kind of a move and actually going to go significantly lower. if you look at the charts on oil they have now i think started to change at least their character. oil is now not only above the 50, above the 200 and you're seeing an upward sloping 50-day moving average and the lon

double line capital's jeff gundlach says the recent prices is nearing an end.a lot of risk right now in the markets. if we use the stock market as a proxy, it seems to me that the s&p 500 has maybe 2% of upside and probably 20% of downside for a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. >> gundlach likes gold, calling the commodity a good holding for those who have lost faith in central bank policies. >>> stocks to watch this morning, dow component pfizer has struck an accelerated share repurchase program with goldman sachs, amounting to $5 billion. that represents a significant chunk of the current $16.4 billion authorization. and this just in. valeant pharmaceuticals is appointing three new board members, as soon as this morning. one of the new members is a representative of bill ackman's pershing square. pershing is one of the drug company's biggest investors. >>> yelp downgraded to sell from neutral at ubs. the firm says that the consumer review website operator has lagged peers in user growth, product innovation, and technology investments. >>> and ubs also cutting groupon

we do have a news alert on jeff gundla gundlach. >> reporter: it's been reported he hasn't altered hissh outlook singling out risk-year assets by saying the attitude towards the investors seems similar to the attitude towards ted cruz and the people that think both are stronger than they are and that has negative implications for stocks. here's what he had to say. >> i know there's a lot of belief right now in risk markets. i think risk markets have a very poor risk-reward setup. if we use the stock market as a proxy, it seems to me that the s&p 500 maybe has 2% of upside and probably 20% of downside for a 10-1 risk-reward ratio. >> that being said gundlach saying he doesn't think there's a risk of recession in the u.s. so he is monitoring it. he also warnings that china appears not to be growing towards forecast and that in turn will hurt global growth and he believes it's very risky for the fed to raise rates in march and he expressed hopes that the fed doesn't go negative on interest rates saying it would be hugely harmful to the financial system specifically, of course, the banking