let's bring in the blackrock chief investment strategist jeff rosenberg.ers, a little disappointment. put it together, you are allocating for the u.s. economy currently? jeff: you get a mixed message between cap and durable goods. the initial jobs claims figure was good. feed into expectations for more important data releases next month, the payroll report. that will set up expectations and janet yellen will have a speech on june 6 that the market will focus on. it will be the summation of this economic data into the june 15 meeting. you put it together, and what we got last week and what the data keeps the momentum towards is raising odds for some kind of action by the fed either in june or july. there is a debate as to exactly when. what we are seeing is strengthening market expectation. in the last two-minutes you mentioned the decline in the lastear, but in the two-weeks strengthening expectations for fed action. jon: looking at the treasury policyhow monetary expectations are playing out. the curve shifted higher, but we stay pretty flat. 96 currently

jeff rosenberg, when we -- when do we get back to the redline? not clear we will ever get back to the redline. that is the cover station of growth terms are lower, savings are higher, the demographic shift, and maybe the redline is no longer the normal level or the equilibrium or the neutral level. maybe zero is that right level. that is a consequence of this low growth environment. until we see some fundamental changes with respect to where we can get to growth, you will not have interest rates at a real basis before inflation getting back to that 2% level. francine: where -- vonnie: where are we seeing the major capital flows? jeff: the issue is in this low interest rate environment, where can you find yield? we have been in this environment of reaching for yield, and as long as central banks are backstopping the risk in terms of accommodated monetary policy, seeing this movement out the risk curve. tom: the ultimate gloom is that the party is going to stop. the central banks will stop, as you beautifully put it, back stopping. do you see any in

joining us to discuss that and this market setup jason pride and jeff rosenberg, chief investment strategistock. jeff, are there any policy implications from the fed from this consumer price data? >> certainly the story has been that what has allowed the fed to stay on hold for a very long time is missing on the inflation side. what we've seen out of this report and some reports for some time now is that inflation and signs of inflation increasing are starting to show up. and so the concern in the markets are particularlnot out of today's report but what we've seen out of wage inflation that you're starting to see the inflation pressures build. and that this might begin to be recognized by the fed and put some more pressure on expectations for fed to resume normalization. >> i mean, the data's been okay, if you look at it. jason, underlying inflation is building, construction is coming back, better starts this morning, retail sales beat for april. how do you square all of these reports if everyone still feels so lousy and corporate profits are not growing? >> i think what you need to look at

. >> jeff rosenberg, npr. one of my jobs and my -- in my 38 years there was as head of npr worldwide, which is the international distribution side. it doesn't come to -- as david can tell you, it doesn't come to the attention of the government unless it's occasionally has some friction with the government. >> that is an interesting way of putting it. >> fortunately, that hasn't happened in quite a while. but my experience does bring to mind the question i thought i heard early on that you -- i thought i heard the word "commissi "commissioning." did i not here that? commissioning. >> not commission in a commission that is hearing as a testimony, commissioning as in causing things to happen. >> as in having someone make something for you. >> yes. >> good. all right. the point being there, i was very pleased to just hear that slide by because the experience with particularly the bbc domestic product in radio and television, that is the product that is being turned out for them by very, very talented people, there

that is a warning sign that we have gone on to the end of that particular -- tom: yesterday with jeff rosenbergeturn. write that down and look at the thickness of zero return within repression.l is janet yellen going to adapt and adjust to the outside negative rate world? think the united states is going to move to negative rates because i think we will continue 1% to 2% growth. the fed will consider that better than a negative rate regime. if you were to move to negative rates, i think we would have a vast increase in the price of risk hedges like tips, like the yen, like gold, and that would give us a situation where risk would become unmanageable and markets would have a crisis. francine: seth, i guess this is the biggest concern, right? know much -- no matter how much research and no matter how much you know a company inside out, at the end of the day it is policy mistakes that will impact you and her you the most. david: i agree with you completely. world trade volume is 0% growth year on year. price terms, they get a 12% year on year. that is a recession by any other name, and the thing t

david: jim mccaughan and jeff rosenberg.e house, we go to jason furman, chairman of the council of economic advisers. to what waseaction perceived as the headline this. this is a more solid report that initially thought, make the case for us. the most important thing at this stage of the recovery is wage growth and in april we saw wages up 3/10. up at this year wages are 3.2% annual rate. that is what i thought was most important in this report. the unemployment rate stayed low at 5%. we had job growth above what we need to keep the unemployment rate their. themost important thing is consistency, the 74 straight months of private-sector job growth. megan: do you think we can just no longer continue to add jobs as a rate -- at a rate of 200,000? does this show that we have moved to full employment and the new normal will be around 150,000 or lower? jason: really high rates of monthly job growth are in some senses a function of economic problems. when you have a high unemployment rate that is a problem and it is coming down. t