our guest host, jeff sachs. let's get to our morning brief.m. >> overnight, german industrial output dropped the most since 2009. stimulus of $550 billion a year. here in the u.s., economic data, to numbers, the jolt jobs out at 10:00, and earnings, yum! brands after the close. .amsung earnings fell few items of note -- treasury secretary jack lew speaking on the economy and washington, d.c. at 8:45. president obama in new york city this afternoon for a fundraiser. do not try to drive in midtown. nobel prize for physics was announced earlier this morning. we want to point out three japanese scientists won for led lighting, which is all about efficiency. there you have it. >> a nurse in spain has been a first-person to be infected outside of africa with ebola. health workers are trying to compile a list of people she came into contact with. president obama has pledged to boost screening for affected air passengers. an iconic new york city hotel gets new ownership from china. it has a great to pay hilton worldwide $2 billion for the waldorf-asto

special advisor and columbia university and -- professor of health policy, jeff sachs.starts next. i want to take a look at the top stories we are

and now we have people like joe stiglets, paul krugman and jeff sachs who are saying if you look at investment protections and the imbalance for investors and workers, there are some real concerns here. and we need to think about it again. so that's the good news is that we are ready. politically speaking, in congress, we have some great champions. nancy pelosi and harry reid have done a great job in putting the stops, the brakes on fasttrack for now. but they're going to need a lot of support. and the people like chery brown, elizabeth warren, keith ellison have been tremendous champions for fair trade. but too many democrats, too many wishy washy democrats, they want to keep getting the campaign contributions from big business. they want the elite media. they want to stay respectable in the cocktail party circuit. and they hope their base doesn't notice. but our job is to notice. but even more important is the republicans in congress. as said and many polls have shown, the republican base agrees with us. we need a different kind of trade policy. and maybe even more so. but the problem is tha

but jeff, bob just showed had board of the financials. we heard from not only the ceo of goldman sachs but the president of blackstone. the fundamentals haven't changed, just the psychology they said. is that true? >> i think the fundamentals are changing a little bit. europe is on the cusp of its third recession in six years. maybe you could say that is more of the same since they haven't gotten that far away from it. but as the serious threat to global growth. the retail sales report was weaker and walmart had weaker things to say about the consumer as well. if we see global weakness begin to effect the u.s. that is not business as usual and we could see further downside. >> but the industrial production figures are very good to counter that. the philly fed has countered expectations. if they were to extend qe purchases beyond this month, what would that do for the market? and why would they be doing it? >> it might be a short-term shot in the arm. really we need nor action from the european central bank. but bully's a dub. he's not a voter. so i'd watch where oil is headed. that's b

. >>> goldman sachs compiled a list of stocks it thinks will under perform and those who will outperform the market as interest rates supposedly creep higher next year. jeff has the breakdown for us. >> thanks, bill. consider it a shot across the bow for a new policy regime. as the dollar strengthens and the fed tightens goldman sachs is cautioning a change is afoot, specifically talking about a shift from companies with a lot of debt on their balance sheet to those with strong balance sheets. compared to so-called weak balance sheet companies but that's about to change and then might consider this that moment and the tide goes out and find out who's swimming naked. companies are shoring up the operations and the dollars are weak and normalization in sight but the tide is leaking out for a stronger picture and taking a look at the weak versus strong balance sheets names, strong like facebook and chipotle, weak ones are campbell's and dr pepper. goldman said it won't abandon the high debt companies just yet. i think the timely one at that and investors look at things in a little different light. back to you guys. >> i guarantee swimming naked turns people

sachs cutting its oil forecast next year. a global swoon in prices that is well under way. we have kate kelly with a first-on interview with a man behind the controversial report jeffu for joining us. this has been quite a reversal in the markets from a bullish period to an incredibly bearish one. why cut your forecast now? haven't these dynamics been in play a few months here? >> you look at these dynamics, they've been in play going back since 2012. we've been long-term bearish for quite some time. our target going into this was $90 a barrel. we just gained more confidence in that longer term bearish story. there are three key reasons. one, the forward outlook on growth weakened substantially. not so bad today but took down expectations on china in europe going forward. libya came back. they are producing 900,000 barrels a day the third fact is the u.s. has been surprising to the up side in shale production. the u.s. creates each year the equivalent of a libya. it recreates a libya each year. >> in growth. overall production is much more, about 9 million per day? >> 9 million barrels per day if you look at crude. all the liquids in, 13 million barrels a day. >> y