jeffrey dunlop out. talk about the s&p. all recession indicators are flashing no recession which means it is priced in. i like this flash backward to january of 2017. it's like the same thing. >> he believes that if the tenure treasury yield breakthrough 2.63% -- alix: how do you come up with that level by the way? >> he's old-school. >> if treasury yields rise above a certain point this will start to negatively impact the s&p 500. we are already seeing 10 year treasury yields climbing above dividend>> yield on the s&p 500. at what point do people stop buying stocks and just say we can actually get value in bonds again? he's one of the few market prognosticators whose predictions tend to actually redeposit investment results. >> you mean who is right. who tends to be right. >> that was my fancy way of saying that. alix: what i'm really excited about is oil. $63 a barrel. brent almost $70. i don't buy it. i don't understand how you will not have a surge in u.s. production and i'm worried about the potential shakeout. of citi

>> quick background on that, two years ago on this day, jeffrey dunlop said a guy named donald trumpould win the primary and win the election. most of us thought that was pretty crazy. neil: right. >> now what does he say? he is happy with the animal spirits that have been created. very few financial people are big fans of a lot of regulation and high regulation. he doesn't like the tax bill. he feels the most powerful lobbyists got their say and it is kind of a jumble and favors some industries over others but the general consensus you put a little more money back into the economy you will see a little bit of a benefit in terms of gdp growth. the question sis -- >> the corporate cut is pretty big. >> it is massive. neil: it could have a lot of ancillary. >> the question where does it go? does it go to buybacks or dividends or go to salaries? neil: a lot is going in the form of bonus checks to workers. >> that is a very good thing. if you put more money in pockets of people going to spend it that is a big positive. neil: what about the view that the president is nuts according to mic

. ♪ alix: jeffrey dunlop says the s&p will have a negative rate of return this year but commodities mayorld economic forum thought couple u.s. cabinet secretaries would attend davos. president trump is heading there with his america first agenda. i'm alix steel all alone in new york city. david westin is in washington today. david: i miss you. there's a lot going on here in washington. later this hour we are going to talk with greg valliere. we will talk about the government shutdown and the issues looming on capitol hill. we will talk with david perdue about the