jeffrey lacker joins us.threw have my books out because i'm blind, i kept all of the textbooks. there all of these great books, including what you studied at wisconsin. is any of this fed moment theory, is any of this fed process in the textbooks? jeffrey: i think so. i think the empirical record of the federal reserve for the last 100 years or more shows repeated instances of them pivoting from concern about promoting demand and growth to concern about trying to fight inflation. there record is not that great. less than half of the time have they done it without successfully reduced inflation without pushing the economy into a recession by overdoing it. it is hard to do because of the lag involved they have set a course for themselves this year and they have a tough job this year. tom: are they going to move forward and you have confidence they can move forward and recalibrate and adjust with stability, or do you suggest there is instability risk? jeffrey: i think they are threading a needle. i think they ha