london, julian jessop, chief economist and jennifer mckeown. thank you both for joining us. when you look at these tensions, they are counterproductive compared to the relative calm after the u.s.-china partnership. can this go ahead? how much of a threat is it? jennifer: i think it is a significant threat. imposed of our amounts to a small share of important exports for these countries. that looks like we could be heading into escalation. that would be a serious threat. particularly for germany which has been left out of this conversation so far. for germany, car exports are vital. spread, thereto

julian jessop and jennifer mckeown still with us.the next one will take place? jennifer: august, followed by another in november. that will be depending on the flow of data. retail sales data this morning help to support that in august. they will be looking for confirmation that q1's weakness was temporary. is a firm sign of that and encouraging. guy: what are the hike spaced on? the idea that supply is tight and the central bank should raise rates or that demand is coming in and as a result of which, they should raise rates? what is the basis for the arguments for raising rates in the u.k.? jennifer: the economy is operating around capacity at the moment. there are signs that the man should pick up, real income positive. wage growth picking up, relatively positive. there are signs inflationary pressure should be coming through more in the u k francine: how do you demodel brexit? there are reports theresa may may ask for another 23 month extension. what does that do to the economy? julian: the things i would be looking at in the bank