interesting with the sound we got from jeremy grantham.ow let's talk to danielle dimartino booth, former advisor to the dallas fed. what do you expect from jay powell and company today? danielle: powell is in a tough spot. there's a lot of hocks, -- hawks, including christopher waller who is on the board, and they are very much intending for jay powell to be really hawkish. the balance sheet has not been as reported on as need be. i think that would be the primary tool going forward because officials are concerned about how close the two year and 10 year are trading towards one another and they do not want to the yield curve to invert. matt: we have seen in times of rising rates, at least over the last 20 years, i have looked at rate rising environments and you do see a narrowing of the spread. sometimes you do see inversion. is that the main fear? danielle: yes, and at is what makes interest rate hikes a blunt tool, instead of trying to control the balance sheet into this hiking cycle. i think they will lean on that. it wouldn't surprise

it's not just jeremy grantham. it is individual investors. the most net bearish since 2020. who has the rains? it's those who think this market will turn lower. manus: you have to look at the bond market. there is something a little bit strange in the bond market because i have seen futures rise 10, 15, 30 seconds. yields are rolling down. is it pimco's who are correct? it's coming to fair value. are they correct where he says these bonds, they are just not a haven at all. you can debate the fed puts at any moment. dani: here is your risk look this morning. nasdaq, euro stocks, bitcoin. bitcoin down almost 6%, the lowest since august. it is a big day for risk off. second day in a row. manus: oil crumbles. there is something malevolent in the world. oil dropping. oil rallied away on the back of equities actually declining. now, there is a moment in the oil market, down by 2%. yields roll down. dollar yen, is that your haven? let's talk about japanese tech. juliette saly is standing by in singapore with a continuation of the wreckage. carnage. carnage. juliette: indeed, manus.

jeremy grantham is a numbers man and this is a statistical argument.says stocks have deviated greater than two sigma from trent. that has only happened three times before in u.s. history, in 1929, 1999-2000, and in 2007-2008. each time, the market followed a pattern that resulted in a crash of 50% or more, and because the fed posco tools are much more limited now that we have inflation, it will not be able to forestall this plunge he predicts. >> talk to me about the fed because i would argue there's a structural shift underway, even during his lifetime career, where the fed has been less tolerant of these big drops. what is to say the fed could not come in? >> well, one would presume that this fed chairman, jay powell, would do would ben bernanke and alan greenspan did in another way, come in with monetary easing, but when your job at the fed is to keep prices from rising, more liquidity in the market and economy is gasoline on the inflation fire. >> i love how we also talked about the death of the 60-40, which we have talked about, where even bonds a

there is an interview with jeremy grantham. coming up, we are watching the impact of the russian ukraine tensions on the market. a senior em strategist will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. >> i guess we have to do something. >> we have to be ready for things. >> the ruston size is in relation. i hope they also realize that the gains of corporations outweigh the price of confrontation. >> russia's actions have cost us. and it is on russia to de-escalate and give diplomacy a chance to succeed. any use of force against ukraine will be severe. a serious mistake. it has to be a consequence. russia will have to pay a high price. >> we don't threaten anybody, but we do hear the threats to us. >> it is going to be a disaster to the russians if they engage and invade ukraine. our allies and partners are ready to impose a significant harm on russia and the russian economy. very important leaders, intentions on russia. we want to bring in the correspondent. we had antony blinken, the secretary of control -- the greatest take of dam

tom: by immense affection and respect for the gentleman from boston, jeremy grantham.conversation. front row wednesday at 10:00 a.m.. they'll be on the terminal like global wall street. whether you are cautious or not, it is must listen. it is must listen on this time of day when every jeffrey lacker considers 4% inflation, that lisa and i should parachute in will kennedy. he is in houston with our leading texas oil team. we are near $90 brent. is that an important benchmark? will: i think it will be quite a signal to go through $90 for the first time in eight years. it would get people talking about the possibility of $100 oil it will mean the cost of oil and the cost of gas will come straight back up the political agenda. tom: it is something in the vicinity of $110 a barrel. his oil elevating near $100 or 110 for the same reasons since last time? will: slightly different reasons. last time was before shale and what ended that period was the shale revolution in texas and elsewhere in the u.s. that revolution is still going in u.s. production is rising. the problem th

alix: that was jeremy grantham, gmo cofounder, sink the historic collapse in stocks is underway.hat leads to the question of the day. tech is wrecked, buy bonds? callie cox from utah real -- from etoro joins us now. our bonsai safe haven? >> that is the question. if you look at the everyday investor, bonds can be a great tool to get you to your go, especially -- get you to your goal, especially when stocks are selling off. but there are a lot of structural forces at play right now, so they look incredibly overvalued. there is international pressure. it just depends on which sector you're coming from. guy: what do you make of the price action this week? let's start there. we started with bonds pushing equity markets. equity markets look like they are now pushing bond markets. as you'd he's -- as you sit here this friday watching the price action, what are you thinking about where we are in the cycle, where we are in terms of understanding where we should be positioned with our portfolios? what are you thinking? >> thinking worst case scenario, there was the check -- chance for a f

haslinda: we are talking about jeremy grantham. he has gotten the market's attention. he is sending an alarming message the world needs to prepare for a future with high inflation and slower growth. he spoke to erik schatzker in a front row interview. >> i have not written about inflation for 20 years. when i did quarterly letters, i never featured inflation. i did not think it was on the radar screen. it is now on the radar screen once again. it is not that inflation will go roaring back to 1972 or 1982. instead, it will always be part of the discussion from now on in my opinion. instead of forgetting about it, it will be spiking and irritating and falling back and spiking again. it will be part of the scenery in the way it used to be in the second half of the 20th century. there is a lot about this economy i think that will be dragged back into the light 20th century. we have had a very abnormal honeymoon cody locks period for 20 years, which i think is ending. let me put it this way. in the early stages of running out of raw materials. we live on a finite planet. th

we have the likes of jeremy grantham saying that we are in a super bubble.hy stay there when you can get value elsewhere, especially in asia? hou: so, our bible approach would be, like i said -- our bible approach would be a long -- our barbell approach would be on the secular growth companies. there are pockets of asia which are good for dividend yields. china large banks. in europe, we like the european integrated oil companies. so the portfolio income generators would give you about 5% yield. that construct, to us, is optimal, superior in this situation. whenever the fed raises rates, normally, the u.s. /european developed markets will do better than emerging markets, and that includes asia, as well. rishaad: very quickly, with that in mind, what does better in 2020 emerging markets or developed? hou: clearly, some part of asia, in particular china, is trading very attractively. we are awaiting catalysts. clients are really exposed to china internet stocks. what we are seeing here is -- what we're seeing here is, wait for the catalyst before you average d

. >> cofounder jeremy grantham speaking exclusively with bloomberg's editor-at-large.modities. oil the big one. really seeing brent breakthrough $90 a barrel. now hovering just below. oil trading near a 70 year high expectations of global demand picking up and stockpiles dropping. the u.s. stockpiles falling again this week. the lowest at this time of year for almost a decade. pretty much everything rallying. nickel certaiis higher than -- a little more than 2%. a part of the rally, the commodity spot index tracking 23. including energy, metals, and crop futures. fresh record as concerns over inflation continues. shery: take a look at how lg's energy is doing. paring back from earlier gains. pretty impressive, given the kospi down more than 1% at the moment. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. >> the kospi up, samsung after missing the fourth quarter expectations on profits. lg energy solution doing pretty well on its trading debut. rising more than 60%. markets coverage continues heading to the start of trade in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. this is bloomberg.

always pumped up markets in times of emergency and in times of huge losses, we have the likes of jeremy granthamill take another 20% slide before the fed links. what do you think? >> we cannot just look at it as the fed and markets. the fed will also be looking at economic data, too. they have to. i think as we see inventory buildup continuing, as we see slowdown, one of the most worrying things this year is that the u.s. government is going to put about $1.5 trillion less into the economy than it did last year, so we had that happening at the same time that the fed are tightening, and we have seen that bank lending has turned negative. all these things are leading indicators for a really big recession, so i think the fed might have to react to the economy as much as it has to react to markets. on the markets, pick a number. jeremy has been around a long time. if he says 20%, that's good enough for me, but i think it is a combination of what happens to the markets and what happens to the economy. haslinda: we have seen u.s. consumption dropped in the fourth quarter. it has traditionally been key

are leading the market lower, that don't have a lot of earnings -- >> when you see someone, lie jeremy grantham. >> he's been talking about it for a long time. he's always worth listening to. >> i'm watching "yell ojackets" worth watching am zoom, google, meta, apple, microsoft spent $280 million last year just on r&d. i want to go with those companies. they're done they're the dot-coms. >> how about never say, jim, i'd like to have dinner with you on thursday. >> next wednesday, no, how's never? good for you >> i like that never? really never >> they're starting to sell multiples, and this is the time to -- are you telling me that it's -- you're saying time to buy 23 -- >> you want to buy up? >> no, i want to bike down. >> how about hyln? >> how about union pacific, where lance came on and said they had an unbelievable quarter? one of the things we learned -- just all these corporate companies is your hair looks great, cut it out. what if i did like this -- >> i have a -- listen up, yeah >> is that gray? is that gray >> oh, my god. hair care for men, with you? the quarantine, that's what's cau