matt: it is no surprise to hear that jeremy grantham's parish and he thinks we are coming out of a big -- bearish, though we are coming out of a big bubble. goldman sachs are bringing their precision forecast to 15% which is pretty much nothing. they do not think there will be long and variable lags that will hit us down the line after the fed is raising interest rates so far, so fast. what is your view on that? >> first of all, let me clarify, i think it is at 3.15. i met 435. there are going to be some long lags. i think that the economy is going to continue to progress forward. one of the things you have seen thus far this year is that anyone who has been calling for a recession or especially an earnings recession, that it has not panned out. we have seen earnings revision upwards. i think that from a recession probability standpoint, i would put the probability of a recession especially within the next 6-12 months. probably around 10% at this juncture. jon: as for the markets, looking at the s&p 500, we are entering this period were september can be challenging, i would say since t

jeremy grantham of boston and conversation with david rubenstein. about the joy of leaves changing. you were up at the lake this weekend. lisa: yes, i saw a red trees and i saw the red leaves fall. tom: david rubin side joins us from the carlisle group. including stacking duke football. how did you contribute to this? >> i was calling the signals and from the sidelines. if they listen to my signals earlier they would've been a better team all along. tom: did you hear the d1 resurgence story? lisa: i love the thought of your hand signals. >> i have a lot of respect for mr. grantham how did you address the three year, four year hush this is had on the financial american experiment. >> jeremy grantham is a financial analyst that has been prescient in predicting bubbles bursting he is good at that and he has predicted many bubbles as a result he has a terrific record us and investor but now he spends most of his time investing in climate change, climate tag. the greatest challenge is the climate problem. most of his money is in a foundation that goes to

haidi: we've heard from a wall street bear, jeremy grantham, warning the slow-moving influence of risinge u.s. economy. in a conversation with david rubinstein, he told us this could trigger a recession by year end and take the stock market down with it. >> the deflationary faucets from the tech stocks breaking in 2021, probably. too big. . . the power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market, very negative, slow-moving influence. i suspect they will once again dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year. and an accompanying decline in stock prices. >> the recession you are predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023. >> it may start in 2023. >> the federal reserve has said we have cleared the recession recently, the hurdle, and they don't project a recession any longer. do you disagree with the fed on that? >> the fed's record on these things is wonderful. it's almost guaranteed to be wrong. they have never called a recession. particularly not the ones following the great bubbles. they pride themselves in stimulating the bubbles

jeremy grantham is brilliant and we respect his views deeply. more so on the bears side.nd you cited goldman sachs on the opposite side who has brought down their expectations and calls for a recession. i would say ubs as of now more so lies with goldman sachs. our economists are calling it a soft-ish. there could be some bumps in the road. when we look at the economic data, a has been surprisingly resilient. you look at labor data, inflation data and so far the economic data does support the soft landing scenario. so we do believe the risks of a recession have receded and we are calling right now for this type of lending. >> if that is the case, what will happen with inflation? will consumers continue to hold up? we know excess savings has been dipping maybe to a concern in extent. cracks in the housing market as well. >> our view is bad disinflation will likely continue. that is why our economists expect we likely have seen the end of the fed's tightening cycle. by the time november rolls around, it is likely we will continue to see inflation softening. economic data po