we'll have jeremy siegel in a bit. go back to mandy, but for now right here, me, you, all of us together getting ready for the big game on sunday. but we're talking super bowl stocks because this is cnbc. the next chapter in our epic battle pitting new york against boston in the big arena of wall street. what city has the best performing stocks? ( [ male announcer ] to the 5:00 a.m. scholar. the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. >>> nobody does it like sara lee. not lately anyway. shares of sara lee trading at new 52-week highs. the company report d better than expected earnings from continuing operations. later on this year it's splitting in two, separating europe focused coffee and tea unit and north american meat business that makes the delicious jimmy dean sausages as well as

that's what jeremy siegel says. >> happy to be here. >> we are talking about dow 13,000. you believe the odds are in favor of the dow hitting 15,000 over the next two years and there is a 50/50 chance of 17,000. >> right. 15,000 seems like a dream but truth of the matter is it would only mean another 7.5% this year and 7.5% in 2013 which aren't gigantic gains. so it's certain not out of the question. in fact, i think as you mentioned it is very possible that we are going to get to that 17,000 level by the end of next year. we get a lot of historical analysis. once you have had a bad five year period like we have had before, the following two years tend to be very, very good with gains that have averaged almost 20% a year. so when we looked at all the different probabilities of what history and there is a lot of history. we are going back 140 years, has told us it seems like i wouldn't call dow 15,000 a slam dunk but 70% of the time we will have reached that and 50% of the time we will have gotten as high as dow 17,000. >> let me ask you about this situation sort of feedin

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>> i'm not buying into what jeremy siegel is saying. he's a brilliant guy, but i've never found economists or strategists can make me any moan unless it's james renaissance. so buy the cyclicals as well. >> retail's on fire today, too, coach rising to a report, hitting fresh 52-week highs, include dollar tree, limitedbrands. anybody buying any of these names today? there's a lot of names here, it's coach, dollar tree. >> if you look at home depot, what we've been looking at is a recovery in housing. i've seen money flowing in. >> it all has a space. >> dead on correct, the home builders have anticipated a massive recovery. i'd much rather be in home depot than those. >> the home builders probably are at a point where they flattened out. heap dao po, lowe's, all of those. >>> up next, a prolific deal maker gives us the lowdown on his next flay. floyd wilson is on deck. >>> much more "halftime report" is on the way. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the bi

tim, 17,000 by the end of next year wouz jereas jeremy siegel'. does 20,000 sound reasonable or crazy to you? >> well, i'm certainly not going to see 20,000 and then raise you. but, mandy, when we look at what we see at the company level and at tamro capital we're stock pickers. it's come in better than expected. companies with great balance sheets, profitability moving higher. and demand is pretty good. if the market follows fundamentals, the expectation is you'll continue to see the broader averages move up. >> but we can't even get to close above 13,000. what's going on there? is there a real commitment phobia out there on the street to actually making certain levels that would give us the catalyst to move to whatever, whether it be 14,000 or 17,000? >> sure. it's sort of funny to me. people get fixated on big, round numbers. i remember way back in 2000 when we were trying to get to dow 10,000 and the former head of the nyse, dick grasso, was handing out dow 10,000 hats. we finally got through that. we had a nice move up and two bear markets. i

jeremy siegel's work about undervaluation. dividends do matter. i also want to point out that david mentioned italy. the ten-year in italy rallied last night. we are now around 5.5%. we're not in a situation where italy is worrisome for the moment. if you think back to november when our market declined 400 dow points off of italy going to 7%, it's just not as big a deal italy being the third largest bond market in the world. >> that's part of the arguments of our making. the s&p looks a lot like it did this time last year. >> a lot of people got whacked. david, a lot of people were positioned very bullishly last year because they figured everything looked good. i don't hear the bullishness. a lot of data says there's a lot of people in. i don't know anybody who just likes it. i see a lot of bears -- except last year when some uberbears converts. i expect to see them convert back to bears. >> you hope they do, because it's a bad sign if they don't. >> yeah, but people are flip-floppers. we used to call these people -- i'm searching once again now t

jeremy siegel over the last week on cnbc and for his prognostication to occur, for markets to rally toll time highs, a lot has to go right. it's going to require reviable spirits. and striding valuations back to over 15 times. it's not an impossible feat. but given the last financial cycle, given our balances, it's not likely based on what has occurred both economically and geopolitically in the past couple weeks. >> good to speak with you. doug cass of seabreeze. you agree with doug? >> i do. it's not like we haven't talked about this. we said starting late fall given what was transpiring, there was no reason to believe there was no trend up to 1350, 1370 may highs. now it's really incumbent to really ratchet it through. and given the action the last couple days, i'm not sure that's going to happen. i don't think the world's coming to an end, but we can trade back down to 13 and a quarter. but there are levels that work. given a lot of things doug just talked about, i think it's pretty -- i said it last night. for the first time in a long time i think there are opportunities to trade

jeremy siegel, gabelli? byron wing? no. the immortal words of stock historian pit bull. you want to picture this market with a kodak or times square where the nasdaq is and take picture of me with a kodak. how fitting is that since the nasdaq is finally back to where it was a little more than ten years ago, perhaps signaling the end of one of the longest bear markets on record. how does e.e. cummings' bull get to rhyme kodak with kodak? we have to take a minute to describe right now how out of the blue shocking is so much what happened today. i got to tell you guys, this is a revelatory kind of day. first, we hear from case-shiller that your house is losing value by the nanosecond. my house in summit, new jersey, dropped since "squawk on the street" this morning. so given the supposedly horrible state of housing, wouldn't whirlpool be the most ideal short in the world? other than a frat house trying to figure how many hazed freshmen can survive a spin cycle, why would you ever buy one if your house is like an hourglass with sand going from top to bottom while you live in

i'm concerned that jeremy siegel suddenly is very bushel on stocks. >> speaking off the barron's coveriously. >> absolutely. but i'm concerned that i got bullish on stocks. i'm concerned that i got interviewed two weeks ago by another -- by part of the press, and it says gartman is wild-eyed bullish of stocks and it got carried in the newspapers two days ago. that's probably as good an indication as any -- >> that was a top. >> protracted run to the upside it's probably wise to say you know what? i still want to remain bullish of stocks. i still wish to remain long. but i want to take a little bit off the table. when you've had this kind of a move that's, i believe, the prudent thing to do. >> where would you take it from? where are you doing that? >> well, to be honest, the biggest positions that i have for myself are long shipping stocks. i don't even want to touch my shipping stocks because they're breaking up to the upside. so i think the easiest thing for me to do is to sell s&p futures against them so i've reduced the size of the trade by just selling a third of the dollar value

we saw larry -- investors should be 100% in equities article and jeremy siegel was on tv yesterday saying't be surprised if the dow 15,000 happened this year. there's a level of optimism and conversely that's pushed whack by a number of clients that have said, wait a second here, how do we get there other than just cuts? a lot of the argument is predicated on expansion. the bearish argument is not. and so there's a widening gulf opening up now between further appreciation. >> and you bring up many, many great points there. i want to bring in mickey cargil of car gil investments. let me ask you your feelings as we weigh the news out of europe, what's going on in our domestic economy. we'll have some data points out today. the retail sales numbers will be quite big. how are you looking at those numbers as a measure of consumer sentiment and domestic growth on the domestic economy here in the states? >> corporations have just done a great job of taking their sales and translating them into greater earnings and so they've become very, very efficient, returns on investment capital is high righ