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this is jeremy segal, look back 30 years he did the original research going back into the 1800s about inflation and how it impacts the stock market >> meantime, to morgan's point about mike wilson faster than your costs slow and that's going to create risks for earnings, that's how they get to bearish earnings numbers, at least for the first half of this year. >> that's right. the problem here is the analysts generally are behind the curve by the time the analysts stop, the market has already smelled this and turned around the debate is how long is it some people think there's a drag of ten months. by the time the analysts stop cutting their numbers in the second quarter of this year, the market bottomed in october of 2022 that's why the stock market is a forward-pricing mechanism. it tries to outguess everyone. that's what we love about the stock market it keeps us all employed. >> 40/50, is that the key level to watch >> start going above 4,000, going into 18 times forward earnings at 4050, you'll get people really screaming. very few times in the last 30 years has the s&p traded at a forward multiple above 18. that usually has ended badly >> okay. bob pisani, great to kick o