jerome powell known _ impact the market. jerome powell known for _ impact the market. jerome powell known for his - impact the market. jerome iell known for his nuanced speed. this meeting comes at a time when we are seeing a lot of economic data pointing to a rather sharp slowdown in china's economic growth. the world also trying to rely less on chinese growth? it is world also trying to rely less on chinese growth?- on chinese growth? it is the delicate balancing _ on chinese growth? it is the delicate balancing act - on chinese growth? it is the delicate balancing act mr . delicate balancing act mr powell is facing. 0n the one hand he has the us and on the other hand the second largest economy. the issue for example that china is now facing stagnated inflation, record unemployment, declining trade, lower exports and imports and the government having to raise interest rates twice in the last couple of weeks in china. challenges facing the world's second—largest economy. and as governments around the world tried to bring production and manufacturing either back at home or tried to diversify the supply change will impact the

jerome powell today? good morning, good to _ jerome powell today? good morning, good to see - jerome powell today? good morning, good to see you. | jerome powell today? good | morning, good to see you. ierome powell today? good - morning, good to see you. i am hoping and expecting we don't see very much. i would say i'm not expecting to see too many fireworks one way or the other because the market has been doing well, the economy itself in the us has been holding up much better than i think most people would have expected so far this year. and inflation is coming down. i thinkjerome powell has to continue to thread a very fine needle with respect to trying not to rock the boat too much. but recognise and give the message that rates have to remain higher for longer. that rates have to remain higherfor longer. i don't higher for longer. i don't expect higherfor longer. i don't expect he wants to give too much away one way or the other. the big takeaway is going to be dated dependency going forward that we really truly are going to focus on how the data will come on in the next month as to what the federal reserve is done with hiking or perhaps have one more left.- done with hiking or p

what do you think we can expect from jerome powell tomorrow? i fromjerome powell tomorrow?s cards relatively close to his chest, historically, especially in the last 15 years, there has been occasions when the jackson hole event the big keynote speech has been used as a platform for a big policy shift. there has been a couple of occasions with ben bernanke you when that was the case. i don't think we can expect the same, the federal reserve has been cautious over the last 12 months, hawkish talking up the prospects of interest rates rising then markets expect and staying longer than they expect, i do not expect to see a significant change of tone from jerome powell, they have made significant progress but there is still more to be made and he will be wary of how carried away markets can get at the slightest hint that interest rates could stop rising, even start falling next year. it is not 'ust start falling next year. it is not just him _ start falling next year. it is notjust him all— start falling next year. it is notjust him all eyes - start falling next year. it is not

so i don't necessarily support jerome powell's view that that's necessarily a positive. so, i think all of those things are reasons we might be a little bit concerned here. >> are the oil shocks of the '70s reflected in those charts that you just showed us, that mr. summers was pointing to? >> yeah, so what we were looking at right there was basically cpi. so, you know, a lot of people will look at inflation, and they will, you know, they will pull energy out, they'll -- in fact, it's very frequent that people will say, you know, "x," "x" food and energy, because those commodity prices tend to be a bit more volatile. the thing is, though, we need to bear in mind, and we are actually seeing, we saw some big increases due to a refinery outage and energy prices today. so those things do impact the consumer. you know, we want to take out volatility. but we can't ignore entirely the fact that they affect consumer spending. >> yeah, all right, brian, welcome, good to see you, you're looking at rates. what are you seeing? >> just to kind of tie this together, you have to look at

the final inflation has | been the defining moment in jerome powell's post pandemic helm at the fed. what ild be looking for is, given the recent progress in the data where core inflation in the us has fallen significantly from the highs of 2022, willjerome powell be ready to declare victory and recognise the progress that has been made so far? and in this way indicate to financial markets that we are quite close to the end of the tightening cycle. my own expectation is he will not be ready to do that yet because there are still some uncertainty when we are now in the final mile of bringing inflation from over 3% to 2% which is the fed's actual inflation target. i think he will be ready to say they remain data dependent well saying some progress has been done so far. the other thing i am looking for is how will jerome powell define data dependency? what will be the milestone he will be looking at right now as they make the decision about the last few hikes of this tightening cycle? the chip designer nvidia said it will buy back $25 billion more of its shares, saying it stop flying after hou

i believe what jerome powell says, first of a i don't think that -- all.arget inflation rate and then on top of that, and probably more importantly for everybody, i think that interest rates remain higher for much longer. i'm talking about a number of years. unless we see a massive collapse of the economy, unless we start talking about recession and recession plus, i don't believe that we're going to see a backing off of high rates and for that reason i have said and i will continue to say that investors need to understand that we are going to get into a tale of two cities. city one is going to be those businesses that can go ahead and flex along with the rise in rates and alternatively we're going to get to assets and enterprises that are ham strung with the interest rate. so folks that are out there that are going ahead and borrowing at rates that are very high, that have levered capital structures, junk bonds, those companies are going to come into the market with needs to refinance. they're going to have an incredibly difficult time. interest expense i

i don't necessarily support jerome powell's view that's a positive. all those are reasons we might be concerned here. >> are the oil shocks of the '70s reflected in those charts you just showed us that mr. summers was pointing to? >> yeah, so what we were looking at right there was basically cpi, so, you know, a lot of people will look at inflation and they will pull energy out. in fact, it's very frequent that people say, you know, x food and energy because those commodity prices tend to be a bit more volatile. the thing is, though, we have to bear in mind -- we saw big increases due to a refinery outage in energy prices today. these things do impact the consumer. we want to take out volatility, but can't ignore they affect consumer spending. >> brian, welcome, good to see you. you're looking at rates. what are you seeing? >> just to tie this together, you do have to look at interest rates. have to look at where the ten-year note was today, was back then. mike's chart ends at what would be this 1975 late half of the year, just after i was born in fac

what is jerome powell signaling here? i always think you rise to short stocks right before it speaks because there's such a thing is the powell put but what do you think? >> telegraphed another rate hike in the next meeting or after that but i can't begin to tell you how depressing that he thinks strong economic growth equals inflation. it is printing to $9 trillion, a lot of control with spending, that's the inflation point, what has to get under control or else. as far as i'm concerned, he can raise rates or not. watch the ten year yield, if it keeps going up, bad, hitting a 15 year high before backing up and i have to tell you under the surface, so many things because of the cost of capital going up, whether it is the credit cards, the latest that just came out is people for the first time ever, rolling over their debt instead of paying it off the first time ever, it is worrisome across the board and next coming up, massive amounts of debt coming to do from the government that has to be done at higher rates which means d

we will get the latest i friday we will get the latest unemployment data in the us the non—farm payment as well we will get a good picture as to how the us is doing, jerome powell pains to say i'm not necessarily saying i am done yet and it comes to raising the cost of borrowing? that's right, at the end of last week market participants leave the week feeling i think jerome powell has just said at the jackson hole summit he is probably not feeling like he's ready stop just yet, he says inflation is too high and he will raise interest rates of appropriate if he has to. the narrative has changed this week, he says ok i hear you mr jerome help we know you will raise interest rates if you have to but the jobs market is turning and the economy is turning and the economy is turning and the economy is turning and turning to the fabled soft landing everyone was hoping for, the federal reserve can get on top of inflation but without breaking the army, that is what everyone hopes for and that is what now looks more likely at —— than at the end of last week. looks more likely at -- than at the end of last week.— looks more likely at -- than at the end of last week. hence

jerome powell as head of the fed. you said you would consider it. do you still have that position? would you keep jerome powell? has he done a good job? >> ielected president, jerome powell would probably jump off the same bridge bill barr talked about. look, anybody who doesn't do exactly what donald trump says exactly when he says it goes from being brilliant, which is what he called jerome powell when he appointed him, to someone he wouldn't reappoint. >> what do you think? is he brilliant? does he stay? >> i don't know if he's brilliant or not, but i will tell you this, he's starting to bring inflation down, which is the job of the fed. and all of us knew that when joe biden went crazy with his spending, even larry summers said that it was going to create big inflation, and it did, and it left the fed with no choice but to raise interest rates in order to bring that inflation back under control because inflation is the hidden tax that kills every family in this country when they go to the gas station, to the supermarket, to pay for their educational costs, to pay for clothing for their kids. that's the pain americans are still feeling

say that will pick up not this month but next month new numbers, ramping up balance sheet i think jerome powellring down average balance sheet substantially what room to add more. cheryl: bothering me i am curious what panel thinks four of six major grocery store footed groups indices zreefd month-to-month meat poultry fish eggs up a half a percent beef up 2.4% i don't know if energy story if that is a demand story are we hilth the barbecue more >> ho not trying to be glib about it but does bother me because we've been seeing food inflation decrease over the left several months i don't -- that is something hits every american's pocketbook especially lower income group, that is kind of getting me right now. >> bread up 9 1/2%, meat, burgers up a couple percent, tyler your assessment. >> on food front i was back from london, there is a big, big food inflation going on in europe in part because of ukraine situation we are somewhat insulated as net food exporters with this report we knew 11 hundreds 12 almost pound to pick up when i zoom out i still see inflation expectations, 3 to 3 1/2% consumers

landing and it could also be a hard landing. >> i look at the financial conditions index and if i am jerome powellere i want to be. >> that's great. the answer is there's a crew looking for a higher yield environment. john is waxing philosophical about the journey and the destination. baloney. the bloomberg financial conditions index is in no way restrictive. why? >> that is because real yields have not gotten there yet. that is the next mountain to climb for the fed. loretta was talking to mike mckee at jackson hole and she was talking about that as doing the heavy lifting to the degree that we don't get inflation going down over the near-term, i.e., all the base effects have been baked in and we are going to see inflation go higher, it's not going to be able to do that heavy lifting, so it's not a done deal that we do the rate cut for september or november. i think november is the key. we could get another rate hike, rather, indicative 2023, specifically because we need to get at least according to the dot plot .3 percent per month on the back half of this year on inflation and we may not get th

jackie: i agree jerome powell broadcast there a said in order to get spending to pull back a little bitt have a paycheck definitely spending less, that is sort of you know, the not happy ending of how this may go, second-quarter earnings on deck ueli lilly your thoughts. >> one thing we forget earnings are downer 5% so far this quarter, revenue is pretty flat, especially most gains we've seen so far this year come from multiple expansion, a.i. hype rally started in march, expectations are going higher means higher hurdle to jump interest rates go up cost of capital goes up we also found out stocks don't like ten year treasury yield notes above 4% we that had comra day move up 1% to down 1% once ten year note above 4% price action tells stories, the story anyways when money market yields are as high as right now, earnings as much as it is right now it is headwind to the market not a tailwind everyone pointing out record money market funds, helping stock market if you have any drop no one rushing to apply market when they earn risk free, 4, 5, cash what happens when yields go down the cau

fed shared jerome powell will give a big speech. iect him to say everything is still a little bad, but not as bad as it was a year ago. don't expect great cuts. don't think or feel anything. [laughter] >> hoping elizabeth can be a little bit more definitive. a longer fan of housing. >> that is right. we learned that berkshire hathaway bought a stake in dr horton. the country's largest homebuilder. up about 40% for the year as buyers have flocked to new construction. anybody that is looked for a home knows there is not much inventory out there. sellers have sat on the sidelines. people with the mortgage rate of 3% are not too eager to trade that for 7%. dr horton chairs fell later in the week as we learned and hit a record year high. homebuilder stocks and learn to shrug it off. it seems like it finally caught up to them. >> recommending homebuilders as early as last year. >> indeed. bullish on homebuilders. he named toll brothers one of his pics. homebuilders bottom-line has had a good run. a little too late for a bit -- a little too

i think jerome powell will sit back we're probably pretty good here. let's see how things play out.harles: we should not get the same kind of pain, pain speech we got last year. he was angry, he was upset the marketing weren't listening. he made sure he came with a club. hopefully he will come nicer this time. lance, appreciate it. the "bric" nations we heard about it, we thought they went away. they're no joke, they asked six countries to join the group. this would shift the world order. this will ultimately i am make everyone on the show. if they mull this off but first though, you heard lance talk about the adjustment. how about private sector down 3 58,000 jobs. that is how much they overadded in the first quarter alone. what are the implications there? the great mike green is next to break it all down for us. ♪. i'm saving with liberty mutual, mom. they customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. you could save $700 dollars just by switching. ooooh, let me put a reminder on my phone. on the top of the pile! oh. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty.

powell? tom: i don't envy jerome powell. no matter what he does the markets will move. there is more work to be done which i think is what he will suggest, then you will see likely the treasury curve moves higher, risk assets wobble in particular, discretionary spending sectors. if he comes out and somehow suggests we are coming to an end of the tightening cycle and we ca light of the end of the tunnel, he everything except the u.s. dollar is going to rip higher area that is a problem in and of itself because that means easing financial conditions when it is clear to us we are not getting close to the end of the tunnel, we are at a point where inflation is getting sticky and could easily wreak celery, especially when you see crude higher and wages continuing to remain 4.5 to 5%. no matter what he does, the market will move. my hunch says he will side toward the hawkish side and say we have more work to be done which we know for the most part but he will leave it open-ended what that means. in particular what that means rate hikes could happen, they are probably done but

extent, if energy up seven days straight and you and i are having a conversation about it, i guarantee you jerome powell and others know income, commodities increasing food stuff, for example, definitely going to be impacted near-term that's also leading me to believe september we're actually going to see another 25 basis points. >> wow so critical. people don't realize it. think about oil and driving a car. half of oil is autos the other half is everything else roofing materials. plastics pharmaceuticals. tires, asphalt this is -- oil, back up. probably close to 100. pray no more storms in gulf of mexico any more exposure? >> we do own chevron and exxon. not too far out there. however, consumer is more sensitive to gasoline prices than they have been to interest rates. so it will be interestiing to se the economic slowdown everybody talked about actually starts to happen if we continue to have oil prices go higher. >> steph >> i am -- 1,000 basis points overweight energy. i own chevron but also like this company slb. my biggest -- >> formerly known at schlumberger. >> and massive technology company tot

i think the fed will counter that narrative. he will have a jackson hole speech from jerome powell before the end of this month and i suspect thathe message he will be trying to give to people is to be patient. we have got rates up to a high level and we have not yet dt in the inflation curse yet. the employment situation is very strong and the message he will give is wants to hold rates at a high level for a very long time. i suspect at the moment that the fed do not even know when they are going to be lowering interest rates. they would not want to put a date on it. they will not be so confident as goldman sachs. they would really want to see inflation cooling and maybe some weakness in the jobs market. neither of those are happening very much at the moment so the message will be that we are going to stay the course, keep rates up, and the market will have to wait. we are not going to give you any messages for the time being but there is time to lower rates. lizzy: thanks to mark cranfield for that update. coming up, gas supply risks are mounting as europe heads towards autumn. we will discuss the outlook, next. this is bloomb

i love that shot from the airport. a beautiful shot >> it is >> what do you think last year was an eight-minute speech out of jackson hole from jerome powell. and it was -- >> similar but i think they have some run -- well, no pun intended, some runway to sort of -- i think they can start to put some test balloons out there just to see, especially given what's going on with the bank of japan, their bond market, yield curve control seemingly losing a little bit of control, and what's going on in china that may give them air cover to talk a little bit more dovish than they've been, so, we'll see, but it can go either way. i'll tell you, in my opinion, closing above 4.25 in the ten-year yield is a big deal these are levels we saw in october, and if you recall where the equity market was in october, it wasn't particularly good >> i think -- to think about this in the context yesterday, the intraday was 4264, and for us to close at that level is kind of psychologically important. karen? >> i'm starting to think, you know, if they do hike, then it will be a little more dovish if they don't hike, it will be a little more hawkish. just trying to,

were a lot of interesting line items that came out not just out of fed chair jerome powell but christine lagarde as well. i think one of the takeaways is higher interest rates seem to be with us for a while longer, are going to be with us for a little while longer. many bangs have noted they're in restrictive territory, but they'll have to stair there until the fight against inflation has been victorious. so how does that change the investing landscape knowing the backdrop for interest rates is probably for at least the time being structurally going to be a bit higher? >> i think first of all it will lead to a change of asset allocation. i think the returns you can expect from the bond markets are going to be, again, gaining act activity. i think the sectorial rotation will also happen on the markets, meaning those sectors that can pass along their costs to the customer would probably do better. i think in general we should be very careful not to neglect the fact that growth is going to be the name in some of the economies we're traditionally looking at in the u.s., et cetera. in general there's a new situ

so, i think in his heart, jerome powell is hoping things stay soft over there. >>> let's look at how traders are positioning themselves chris has all the action in kweb >> hey, so, yeah, what's interesting, cpi and ppi fell in china, and this will help continue the narrative that there will be governmental stimulus that will support the economy. so, in the options market, we saw most participants placing bullish bets in the middle of the term structure, which is generally three to six months out. we saw a lot of scattered buying in kweb, and most of the activity today was on the november 33 call the calls outpaced the puts by a ratio of 4 to 1, and to give viewers a comparable relationship, if you look at the floating strike terms, three-month 10% out the money call on spx is trading at a ten-ball, where kweb is trading at 43. so, quite high there overall, this feels like more so retail participation, or rias. the more sophisticated shops will have their exposure in a more complicated manner. but no doubt, people are buying china, making a higher move in the options market >> chris,

i don't think it makes a difference it's about messaging right now, and if jerome powell feels like he needs to continue to send the message they might hike again in order to not let financial conditions loosen too much he will keep sending that message i don't think it makes much of a difference whatsoever. i think the damage or at least the hiking that's been done, is really it, right we went as far as we could as fast as we could the idea is to constrict capital and demand it hasn't happened in its entirety yet and i think there's more to come. >> let's bring in brin talkington you heard the case liz made. do you agree or disagree >> well, you made a few cases. let's start with the recession -- >> she's cautious, no question about that. >> let's start with the yield curve inversion. that was the last comment. as an asset allocator if you look back through time, when the yield curve invertsz, you look at the 10 and i3-year the averae recession starts 589 days later. you've had 1,000 days on the long end, 300 on the short end i think that looking at the yield curve ultimately the data

i know that janet yellin and jerome powell are now saying they are not expecting a recession, the us might just be able to avoid it. but the markets right now need to be priced at perfection in the united states was up all of the good news is price to an end none of the bad news seems to an end none of the bad news seems to be. we see that china is having a much harder time bouncing back after covid. that is a big driver of the global economy, that will affect us trade patterns. we see that there are big dangers from the fight with russia that is going on right now, we see massive indebtedness that's getting harder to service in terms of their interest on the parts of the poorer countries around the world. some of which may well collapse in the next 12 or 18 months. i do think that given where the consensus of the economists in the stock because are right now there is probably a little bit more downside to the us economy in the next 12 months spent upside. but evenif next 12 months spent upside. but even if the biden advisers are right and the united states can avoid a downturn and i

jerome powell said. david: we have time for one more follow-up and i will let you take your pick.e talked about this pullback we are seeing in cg be's and what ueda gave yen bears. take your pick. garfield: i think ueda's in his short tenure so far has shown he is interested in giving very little way. he is facing a difficult situation, trying to deal with the legacy that kuroda has left to him. on the face of it, he could go either way. i think he wants to keep the market guessing. and again, i do not think, in particular because the fed signaled that its hiking cycle was not over, that yen bids and jgb bids got enough encouragement out of jackson hole to stick with their expectations. because it does not look like ueda is in a rush to take the sort of measures that would substantively turnaround that effort. david: garfield reynolds on all things rates fx and equities talking to us what was said and what was not said at jackson hole. preview of the week is coming ahead. we have pmi's coming out of china tomorrow. that is about thursday. we have inflation numbers out of australia

jerome powell do now? does he take a victory lap? i don't think he will. does he set us up for another tightening or does he simply kmoun indicate the message that interest rates are going to stay higher for longer? that's where i think he's going to land, the higher for longer case. if that's going to happen, the softer markets are going to continue to unravel to a softer place so that it works with current interest rates. >> i mean, vance, same question. you're 95% invested in the market. how do you see the next few days playing out and beyond? >> i think it's going to be incredibly sloppy. i think nvidia's earnings today is probably the most anticipated earnings release we've seen in a long time. i think that's going to cause a lot of volatility. i think on a short-term trade, if you want something very interesting, look at tlt, the 20-year treasuries. if powell comes out with anything dovish, i think you'll get a really good spike in that trade. >> you're looking at bonds. you're so deeply involved in the bonds, i want to pull on that string. gina, ais

powell. stuart: he has a way of speaking, do you think it's time for new leadership. >> i think you can always infuse new leadership in breakout of change. jeromeowell has made mistakes he thought it was transitory, and his defense the reason he thought that he did not the democrats are going to pass $6 trillion of spending through congress. if you had a crystal ball, you would know and if you didn't you relate to the game, that'll happen here. one thing i will say about jay powell when he raced rates during the trump administration he was doing to because the economy was growing in the right reasons. actually thought that was okay. what we we're going to be a 0 forever you have to get the market accustomed to it. for the reasons that were doing it now to tamp down the crazy spending nightmare that we have on our hands at the moment the 11 rate hikes and more to come is a lot for the market to digest. if he would've started sooner perhaps things would've came in a little bit better. stuart: jackie we have to watch on the big money show at 1:00 o'clock eastern on fox business. thank you very much. look at this, bitcoin tumbling last night, 29000

. >> i think it is important to think about what jerome powell said last week, what he said, he believedt inflation was not cooling as much as people think and he cited the housing numbers he said there was some resiliency in the housing numbers but what it really is is a labor market, the labor market is extremely tight, we've seen a little bit of a takedown in past months but what i think we will see on friday, we will see the labor market take up even higher than it anticipated and i think we will see when you have companies like ups that approve 49, 50 an hour for their drivers and then united airlines who approved a 40% raise over three years, the labor markets are tight and you will see wages increase somewhat and that's going to be a cause for concern. >> it's not what's happening, china has a lot of problems right now how do their problems affect us. >> china is in a complete disaster right now, they have become a disaster. everybody knows about the aging population, everybody knows about the youth unemployment, really what's going on in china, where all the chaos is coming from

i said it's hard to see how the rate hikes -- jerome powell has been very clear from the beginning, heay we have about a year and a half of tightening our belts and you look at the economy, investment is in a kind of boom. inflation has been coming down growth is up the atlanta fed's real gdp is tracking 4.1% for the third quarter of this year so if the rate hikes are in fact working as they're supposed to do on the demand side of the economy, what i'm saying is i just don't see a whole lot of evidence for that. and let me just add that one of the things that the rate hikes do that doesn't i think get nearly enough attention is that they work in part through the fiscal side. so the rate hikes are pushing because rates go up and they pay more on interests on reserves and the government is paying more to bond holders so net interest expense is exploding -- >> guys, we are out of time but a great discussion thanks to you all for joining. >> real quickly, portfolio management think portfolio management why was it up? the rate hikes think about the banks that went up portfolio management is

>> he has to dive in and pick out the bad -- >> i know you know the answer. >> what is jerome powellyear on year. but the hope is that as the number -- as the number of jobs created slows, therefore, this clearly is a cooling in the work force, and inflation's coming down anyway, that will moderate and will break the spiral of wage inflation. i would say the federal look at this report, and be very smug about the way things are moving forward, it suggests the soft landing, despite what fitch said earlier in the work. it suggests the soft landing. what they will be worried about, is this doesn't accelerate into job losses. >> the president wants a one-handed economist. economists aon the one hand, on the other hand -- >> yeah. >> thank you, richard. what a delight to have you here with us in the morning. >> a cup of coffee. >> come back with your coffee. come back for more. cheap skates. >>> this just in. republican presidential candidate chris christie an unannounced visit to ukraine, meeting with president zelenskyy. visited sites near kyiv. he also visited bucha, where russian sold

great interview there with jim bullard and i wonder what we can expect today from -- for tomorrow from jerome powell -- or tomorrow from two more -- jerome powell. if you look at the minutes, the fed considers its rate restrictive already. michael: exactly and the point jay powell will make tomorrow is the one he has been making for some time, the fed to keep rates high and assume that will help bring inflation down. if it doesn't, they could raise rates again. that depends on the inflation dating -- data. i don't think he will go out on a limb and make any promises about what will happen next? . we had two other fed officials saying the same thing. one person saying they have done enough and they should think about pausing and susan collins says she could go either way so that -- so at this point, there is not much percentage in pricing a whole lot more -- matt: we know from janet yellen that the minutes can be massaged and the fed may be split until it makes a unanimous decision at the end. are they all at the same page? michael: there's a difference between strategy and tactics. the strategy, the

i will give you the last word -- we have jackson hole next week and we get to hear from jerome powell himself in the fed minutes we got this week, it seemed like the market took that to skew hawkish. when we hear from powell next week, will he try to walk that back? >> no, we think the risk is that he sounds more hawkish. recent fed speak as sounded more balanced. you've heard that balance from powell at the joint press conference and saw in the minutes as well and the balance i'm referring to is a fed that's been more cognizant of rick's that -- of risks that they might over tighten given that was seen progress on inflation. we don't think powell will sound that balanced. that's primarily because the data flow since the july fomc has been strong. we had a strong retail sales print and financial conditions had been easing further so we think he will reiterate the fact that the job is not done, they cannot declare premature victory, and they will see this through. that will be heard from the market is a slight change in tone. will he generate a major rate selloff like he last year at j

host: before you run out of time, i want to bring you the information from the federal reserve chairman jerome powelliscussed the economic outlook and monetary policy at the federal reserve bank of kansas cities economic policy symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. he is talking about inflation and the possibility of more interest rate hikes. >> at last year's jackson hole symposium, i delivered a brief direct we will do so. we had tie-in policy significantly the past year. although inflation has moved down from its peak a welcome development, it remains too high. we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. we intend to hold policy at a restricted level. until we are confident inflation is moving down towards our objective. host: let's eat with our social media followers are saying about their top new story of the week.

tom: jerome powell, is a central banker to the world? pooja: i be watching him clearly to see what he has to say. it is great for them to outline help they are thinking about policy at this stage. a lot of people seem convinced they can engineer a soft landing. we will look for clues to see how they are looking at the economy. tom: thank you. we've got to go back to markets on the move. equities peel away bit. we have the vic's up, 15 point 92. we've got sterling off a cliff, 1.27. these are little moves, but in the doldrums of august, they are tangible. where does it stop? lisa: at what point do they intervene? i am watching the front end of the yield curve. in light of the selloff has been at the back end, but today we are seeing it at the front end, a bit more. but at what point does the that have to consider getting more restrictive? if there rate hikes have not had the impact. you are pointing to earlier today, 7.35%? tom: on the 30 year mortgage. lisa: when does that affect home prices more? tom: i would look into the oddities of urban idio

i don't think they want to go to a target -- gina: but how may times -- matt: but how may times has jerome powell stop until he gets below 2%? gina: there's the language around this i think is meaningful because the fed specifically does not want to become the ecb with an inflation target per se. they have a dual mandate, they are careful about this and anything near-ish to percent has historically been fine. closer to 2% is the latest linkage of the day. the 3%, was compelling. if they moved to some 3% level, i think that would really create massive riffs. matt: in that case, think i we have tom, jon, and lease sat jackson hole and michael mckee who we sent out there. that would be genuine news. let's take a look at what is going on. if you're joining the program, we are looking at rates rising again, tenure about 421 and the s&p 500 futures up .6%. coming up at 8:30 a.m., michael darla, chief economist at macro strategist of roth and cam partners will join us. i have to ask him about the bill because surely in michael dart's career, he have seen the importance o that. i wonder whether convictio

i just think the run-up in the nasdaq was unsustainable. >> these guys mentioned positioning and next week is a big week for a couple of reasons. jerome powell speaks on the 25th. that will be key. we've got video on the 23rd, so these are two different events that will have a big impact on the markets individually. >> let's reference the miley climb. i would argue that apple has taken the miley climb, even though it is steep, but it seems it is taking the elevator down and we have seen that with a bunch of other stocks. semiconductor's outperformed the other groups, which are down 10% now. if you look at that gap, it feels the s&h wants to trade down to 135. in terms of yields were not necessarily positioning for higher yields and that is where equities are starting to take a tumble. if you look back, i know we just quoted we are at 15 year highs, and if you look back just two years, we've moved up 300 points. that is your discount rate. what are the equities work with 300 basis points higher than years ago? by the way, when markets were at their high, multiple stocks were at their highs and the market was close to making all time highs. if

spending pivin washington, d.c., i mean this is a for the most part, most tried to stay out of politics at the same time, there have been subtle hints from jerome powell do so much they are responsible for monetary policy but when it comes to fiscal spending out-of-control under president joe biden be clear here they can only do so much to deal with inflation, does he go there, ross? >>s i don't think so you said jay powell, like fed chairs before done more to stay apolitical, i think will avoid talking to that stick to talking points over the last year going to do everything in power part of mandate to procure price stability useful extent of toolbox might get commentary on quantitative tightening i think will stare clear of politics. thank you so much for being with us this morning we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me, we've got more coming up we are recapping the first gop presidential debate with one candidate who is actually on that stage, former vice president mike pence joins me in a moment, back. ♪ ♪ ♪ my relationship with my credit cards wasn't good. i got into debt in college, and no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. th

i want to remind viewers of that. >>> elsewhere, the fed is set to release the minutes of its july meeting today, with chair jerome powelleeping his options open on the banks next move. the next meeting is scheduled for mid-september, and wall street is betting on the central bank closing its rate hike cycle after strong jobs data and a sharp decline in interest rates. >>> meanwhile, minneapolis fed president says the fed may need to hike rates further. he said, quote, i'm not ready to say we are done highlighting the importance of considering more data before deciding the next move despite signs that inflation is slowing. >>> and, this is a look at how u.s. treasuries are trading today, a bit firmer action on the session. 10 units at 4.19%, and we are really sitting at some very high levels versus where we were, the highest levels for the year. 4.19, very impressive price action going on, there, especially because so many people have come on this show and have been quite bullish about the direction of travel. we will talk about that shortly. the two-year note sitting at 4.91, as well, just shy of that key 5% level. happ

i know you'll be following that breaking news. all right, tom, thank you. >>> we're going to turn now to the federal reserve chairman jerome powell'sassessment on the economy and what the central bank is ready to do to fight inflation. it could mean another boost to interest rates, and abc's morgan norwood is following it all. good morning, morgan. >> reporter: hey, good morning to you, gio. we've seen signs inflation is cooling, but the fed chair says there's still more work to do and that additional rate hikes are still on the table in the coming months. now, he pointed out that the economy has been doing better than expected and that consumer spending has been robust. that is great, but the economic indicator that fed officials are really worried about is the cpi, that's the consumer price index, which signals how much americans are spending on everyday goods. so for july, let's take this, for example, we were down to just over 3%. that's from 9% last year, but it's still above that targeted 2% rate that the fed really wants to see, and the fed's rate hikes to lower inflation have been wallet busters for americans who are strugg

i think it is a big problem. mr. thomas gift, thank you for your analysis. >>> and we're also looking at hoinvestors are reacting looking for direction on u.s. interest rates from jerome powell who is set to speak today in wyoming. wall street hoping to recover from down day on thursday. and so far looking positive with major indices up slightly in terms of futures. the markets have closed for the day across the asia pacific region. they were pretty negative, actually the nikkei was down more than 2% even the hong kong and shanghai shares were down around 1%. still early in the day for markets across europe. and they have a mixed picture. >>> mortgage rates in the u.s. have hit their heiighest level rates will likely stay where they are or could go even hire in short term. just a year ago 30 year fixed rate was 5.55%. >>> we like our fast food news. and subway has a new owner basically. they saw raw capital is buying the chain for around $9.6 billion according to the "wall street journal." >> and it already owns arby's, buffalo wild wings and sonic among others. they bring in about half a million dollars per location each year. >>> and still ahead, the apparent death of form

i don't know how they do that. it's really good stuff. good stuff at the corner of wall and broad finally. stocks jumping on the notion that maybe jerome powell not even a politician, but man, oh, man, hard to nail him dunn. he seems to show that the economy is improving and inflation so far is improving as well. that doesn't mean he still can't raise interest rateses one more time, which would spook him earlier and added the word cautious at the end of his remarks. everybody said bye-bye. go figure, after this. h the sam, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. (light acoustic music plays) (eagle scre

i think bloomberg economics has his right and is more greenspan. greenspan was known as someone who achieved while fed chairman, the fed achieves a soft landing for the u.s. economy. jerome powelleems to be on that same path right now. it looks as though he will achieve that. last year story was all about eating inflation with things have changed. the dynamics are more international than they were a year ago. he will be very conscious of the fact that the european economy is slowing really fast and the chinese economy clearly is struggling in not performing as it should be. the international factors will weigh on his thoughts more than than they did a year ago. you will probably see that he sounds more cautious than he did and if anything, he may start telling people he does not want the fed overtightening compared to last year when they could not tighten fast enough. a different scenario compared to 12 months ago and by the end of the week, christine lagarde speaks and she will probably some dovish. by the end of the weekend, traders will probably get the idea that the central banks around the world have done most of the heavy lifting that they are going to do and they will no

i put all of that together and say that that's a pretty strong macro economy. laura: some of that is due to the federal reserve, which, under chairman jerome powell, has steadilyes to cool inflation, and operates independently from the administration. but economists like tyson also point to the president's push for legislation on manufacturing and cutting costs for americans, like the inflation reduction act, an expansive law designed to boost clean energy projects and lower prescription drug prices. and, the bipartisan chips and science act, which the white house says spurred over $166 billion in private sector investment into the semiconductor industry and helped add 800,000 manufacturing jobs in the u.s. since the president took office. shea: manufacturing construction is significantly increased. some of the infrastructure projects are in place, are being done. some of the climate investments are starting to be made. these are things which are going to take some time to affect the economy. laura: that's in part why the steady stream of strong market and labor numbers have not helped improve president biden's standing. his approval rating is stuck in the low

i isn't. it's good to have a friday song. a new friday song. good morning, everyone. happy tried. it's 10:00 eastern time and it's a very busy day and jerome powellalking any moment now and a preview of what he's going to say and how it'll affect the markets. i'm david asmund in for stuart varney and mr. powell is due to talk at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and that's when he's talking to folks in jackson hole and we've got it all covered for you. the 10-year treasury looking at a positive day for the markets and just went negative. it was up positive in the first half hour of trading. now it's down just a tick. almost flat but it is down 0.6 basis point-blank layupses and oil we saw before was up to 80 and come down a little bit and just over $80 a barrel and now $79.83. still up a percentage point from where it was. bitcoin was up as well. let's see if it stayed there. no, that's come down a little bit. we got the latest read on consumer sentiment. lauren, do we have the number s? lauren: yeah, jay powell is watching this report. how do consumers feel about inflation and the state of the economy? final number for august, 69.5, less than expected and

tom: i guess it is there, but did not come up at jackson hole as jerome powell is central banker to therde made a splash. you showed up. give us the level of international-ness of jerome powell after jackson hole. is he really central banker to the world? sonia: well, he has to be to some extent. 2013, we saw considerable outflows from the emerging markets when the balance sheet tightening started getting discussed. again, into thousand 18, when the fed began raising rates. i think emerging markets for us are better prepared today than in those two previous instances, but it is still a risk. kailey: what about china, specifically? you mentioned how the u.s. is doing better than europe and china. given efforts we have seen and efforts trying to stimulate the equity market or put a floor underneath, how much further you think china actually needs to go to accomplish that goal? sonia: it is a very difficult situation they are in. they are trying to deliver in an orderly fashion, which is always difficult to do. it is especially difficult to do in an economy that is not especially market or