so does jerome powell know something we don't know? the official number that might prove we're in a recession doesn't come out till tomorrow morning. here's powell sounding like the president showing no such concern today. so what to make of it? we're all over it with connell mcshane on how americans don't care what they're calling it, this recession is real and they're having a devil of a time dealing with it. edward lawrence on how the fed plans to handle it. and michael moore on how if a hard landing can be avoided. welcome. i'm neil cavuto. first to lawrence on the move that a lot of people expected but the reaction that many did not. edward? >> it's very interesting that the federal chairman saying that we're not in a recession and we can avoid a recession and taking the same talking points that we've been hearing out of the white house. we saw a 75 point move. it's the first time the fed made back-to-back moves of this side in 40 years, when they began targeting the federal funds rate to 2% dealing with inflation. the federal chai

shery: jerome powell said he did not think we were in a recession in the u.s..hat was he thinking of as a characteristic of a precision for him to think we are not there yet? do you agree? >> he is thinking of something that is very broad-based and a fairly long duration that leads to a couple of quarters. he is thinking of an employment market that gets hammered pretty badly by the performance of the economy. i thought in his comments he put a lot of emphasis on a positive employment market and that is the principal reason why i think he can deny that we are in a recession at the moment. heidi: how tricky is this effort? [indiscernible] >> get into the treasury and protected securities. they are focused on that. going forward, i think that dependent on how stubborn this inflation is, they will continue to monitor expectations. it will be an important factor in their decision making >>. >>what about the risk of recession? jerome powell has acknowledged that those risks are rising. the fed has to keep hiking rates. until it sees the economy slowing down. they hav

did _ cars from overseas. jerome powell did something i cars from overseas. jerome powell dide i powell did something he hasn't done since rate hikes begun in much he avoided putting exact numbers on the size of the next rate hike. that's not stopping the likes of you guys from filling in the blanks question. absolutely. that was a big surprise the need for guidance on future rate hikes, did tip the markets off they will continue to raise rates and he might even do another unusually large one according tojerome powell. but they are not tipping their hand yet another month and a half before the cpi reports before then so they want to keep options open. i think they will raise it by a few basis points in september and may be two more court—appointed rate hikes in november and december leading us up to four point 4% on the target rate by the end of the year. target rate by the end of the ear. �* , year. after this interview i will talk — year. after this interview i will talk about _ year. after this interview i will talk about meat i year. after this interview i will talk about

so is this job too big for her and is it too big for jerome powell? should both of those people be replaced? >> the job is too big for anyone who wants to be honest, unfortunately, you know, i'm not sure why, you know, she is suck cupping to the pressure. it's amazing and maybe everyone is piling up on her. the last couple of weekend, she didn't make the rounds and acceptability a whole lot of other people out. they put her on the bench that and i probably gave her a talk k to, if you want to be out there and face of the economic and face of the administration, you got to get on board but you know what you're saying is wrong. looks like she did it and it's unfortunate. jay powell, yesterday again he was so pained at what he has to do. he mentioned how great the economy was right at the beginning of the pandemic and you can tell, august 27, 2020, kennedy, he wrote a special paper, and that's when he made the shift to the social justice fed. whether you think it's right or wrong, he said, listen, in the past we've looked at unemployment numbers say 4% a

really indicates the two americas jerome powell deals with at 2:00. lisa: the two americas on main street and in the corporate world. the ones that have, the ones with the biggest war chest that you track, and those that are more speculative, growing quickly in the pandemic. you are starting to see them cut back and cut jobs. we have heard from a number of companies. how much does that become an escalating trend? tom: 2/10 spread, -27 basis points. to me that is front and center. jonathan: equities up .8% on the s&p. 10-year yield lower by a basis point. 2.7959. the euro, 1.0138. i am getting a ton of emails. tell tk we are waiting for him to come to melbourne. great barefoot vibes. how much of this stuff am i going to get now? tom: 7:00, we are out there in the beautiful melbourne summer, which is january or february. jonathan: i am aware we have some audience down there. good evening to you. tom: we can watch cricket and fall asleep. alicia levine is with the ny management -- bny wealth management. a prodigious mathematical foundation. with the math

reporter: the chairman of the federal reserve, jerome powell, discuss that very issue.ed that there may be further increases but would not state specifically. he said in september when the fed meets again, then a decision will be taken on the available data. but the fed is made very clear that the point is to drive down the inflation rate which is now over 9%. the fed insists it's got to get inflation down to it least 2%, and this is the intention of this interest hike. this is the fourth and this year, 2.5% is the highest the interest rate has been since 2018. some have welcomed this, the markets have soared in the wake of jerome powell's announcement with the dow has gone up by 400%. there has been a sentiment on wall street that the fed is to be welcomed in terms of its aggressive action. however, some economists are arguing that pushing the interest rate to this extent could result in a recession down the line. that is something that jerome powell was asked about as well, but he said the indices and the market at present, if you look at the drug market which is incr

it is what jerome powell wants to happen. because when people have less money, the theory is they spend less money and when people spend less money, inflation goes down. that is whatat we are talking about when i we say that the federal reserve is raising interest rate. there is a case to be made that is the kind of tough medicine our economy needs right now to keep prices from continuing to soar. which is ace real problem that needs to be addressed. but there are also those who think wet may be on the verge taking it too far. one of those people is senator warren. this week, she published this op-ed in "the wall street journal," jerome powell's fed pursues a painful and ineffective inflation cure and the senator writes quote, when the fed raises interest rate, increasing the cost of borrowing money, it c becomes more expense for businesses to invest in theirst operations. as a result, employers will slow hiring, cut hours and fireworkers, leaving families money.ess in the floodless language of economists, that's referred to

jerome powell and they. >> you have jobs averaging 400 a month. we know that markets are worried about the yield curve, there is no long and variable lag when it comes to the job in yields. what it has done to the u.s. are zinc market -- to the u.s. housing market. jerome powell also said job markets felt robust, he thinks it is possible there is a path to a soft landing. they think they can get it done. when he to see growth potential. -- we need to see potential. after the fed presser, they said the fed would have to hike rates quite a bit more than markets expect. may be the markets are over anticipating the fed and i would say that is one of the key takeaways from today. heidi: let us get you the latest market reactions. we are looking at this rally where just 85% of the companies actually rose overnight. how long current and resilient what this rebound be -- how long-term and resilient what this rebound be? >> the market was looking for anything positive from this decision. there were certain grounds throughout for investors and that is what

and jerome powell said this yesterday, the u.s. economy is massive, dynamic, complicated.he envy of the world. takes a lot to figure out those little changes. this is a number that could turn positive, could turn more negative. there are two more reads on this. >> thank you very much. >>> this just in, jetblue announcing a new deal to buy low cost carrier spirit airlines, potentially creating the nation's fifth largest airline. the agreement comes after spirit canceled its merger with frontier because it didn't have the support of shareholders. jetblue has made an all cash offer of almost $3.8 billion, significantly more than frontier's bid. experts say the deal could lead to higher fares for the industry. >>> also just in, new cnn reporting on the proposed prisoner swap with russia. the biden administration frustrated at moscow's lack of response to the offer to trade eye russian arms dealer for brittney griner and paul whelan. >>> comedian, actor, now shark expert tracy morgan, now his daughter maven, they're here previewing their new show for shark week. ♪ it wasn't me

. >> federal reserve chairman jerome powell standing firm on the state of the u.s. economy. it comes as the fed again hikes interest rates in hopes of slowing inflation. and this morning, a key report could provide a better outlook on our economy's health. >>> meanwhile on capitol hill, senator joe manchin finally agrees to a major deal on climate, health care, and taxes, and we'll break down what's in that reconciliation package. >>> and potential prisoner swap for brittney griner, the state department says there's a substantial offer to bring the wnba star, and another american, back home. >>> good morning, and welcome to "way too early" on thursday, july 28th. i'm jonathan lemire. thanks for joining us. >>> after nearly a year of, a year and a half of on and off negotiations, democratic senator joe manchin says he has reached a deal with party leaders on a sweeping reconciliation package. in a statement yesterday, that surprised even most democrats on the hill, the west virginia lawmakers announced an agreement on what is being called the inflation reduction act of 2022.

jerome powell answered questions about taming inflation without tipping into a recession. >> joining us now, cnn's matt egan who is at the federal reserve, and cnn economics and political commentator, catherine rampell, what did jerome powell say about the fed's decision? >> jerome powell is acknowledging that inflation remains way too high, and more work is needed to get it back under control. powell even said that the fed quote wouldn't hesitate to make an even bigger move if one is necessary, but the next fed meeting isn't for eight weeks, and that is an eternity in today's economy. powell left himself plenty of wiggle room to see how the economy e voefls, what happens to johns and inflation. the fed is conceding they are ramping up interest rates at a time when the economic environment is darkening. the fed in their statement downgraded their view of the economy. they pointed to softening indicators, and during the press conference, powell weighed in on the question that's on everyone's minds right now, is a recession coming or are we already in one. listen to what he said. >> i

wall street and others will be paying very close attention to the exact wording fed chair jerome powell uses at his news conference to see if he reveals any clues as to what the federal reserve has planned beyo day's expected hike. the federal reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate again today. officials have signaled the hike will be at least three quarters of a percentage point. >> the cost of everyday food costs has gone up. the cost of luxury goods has gone up. everything has gone up. >> reporter: the goal is to curb inflation, now at its highest level in over 40 years. >> the typical american household needs to spend almost $500 more a month to buy the same goods and services that they were buying a year ago. that's a lot of money. >> reporter: economic adviser brian deese says the biden administration is committed to getting soaring prices under control. >> it's our view that inflation is the top economic priority that we need to be focused on as a country. >> reporter: experts say the fed has to be careful not to trigger a recession by making it too expensive to

fed chair jerome powell says the goal of the rate hike is to fight inflation which is now at 9.1%, the highest in four decades. the federal reserve's hefty rate hike is aimed at giving americans a break from inflation levels last seen during president reagan's first term in office. >> a dozen eggs is like $5 now compared to like last year being $2. >> reporter: boston area grocery store owner chris waller says he can't offer the sales he used to. >> we used to get deals from the vendors where we'd be able to offer these boxes for $1 each, so ten for $10. but now it's four for $5. >> reporter: after the fed announced it's raising its benchmark interest rate by .75% point, chairman jerome powell said he'll keep working to bring down inflation. >> we understand how painful it is particularly for people who are living paycheck to paycheck and spend most of that paycheck on necessities such as food and gas. >> reporter: the fed's move will raise its key rate which affects many consumer and business loans to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. its highest level since 2018. >> people who have adjustabl

with the chair of the federal reserve jerome powell is another unusually large rate hike could follow over the coming months, we will look for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down conservative with inflation returningo 2%. we anticipate that ongoing increases in thearget range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate. the pace of those increases will continue to dend on the incoming data and evolving outlook for the economy. >> while, i got a reaction from the economist mickey leavy. >> they need to hike rates to restrain inflation. >> talk us through what that relationship is, why has the fed got to do that. >> sure. in the united states, of course, there is very high inflation, but really unlike europe, the inflation in the united states is driven by a combination of strong demand that was driven by excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus and supply constraints. so the fed has hiked rates now and its target ranges 2 1/4 to 2 1/2. every time in the past to really rein in inflation, the fed needs to race it's federal funds rate above the underlying rate of inflation.

jerome powell did not frighten the market and expressed hope for an early price reduction.in the coming months, we expect to see strong evidence that inflation is declining, which will mean a gradual return to two percent. we expect the pace of rate hikes for open market committees to be appropriate. markets breathed a sigh of relief after such announcements, we showed a real rally in the broad market index. the mark of 4,000 points would return, however, the further decision of the us federal reserve system will depend on incoming macroeconomic statistics. the economic recession in the united states is already reflected in the reports of the largest companies; figures for the second quarters of such flagships as microsoft and google turned out to be worse than forecasts. and today , the results of their work will be presented to apple. in conclusion, let me remind you of the exchange rates for today dollar 60 rub. 21 kop. euro 61 exactly, and that 's all for now. roman thanks will briefly talk about some of the central topics of private allied troops of russia dpr liberate

jerome powell told us it's not a common thing. will be the last one, last hike of the magnitude before the increment start getting smaller through the rest of the year. i think the big question for investors is when the feds start to cut rates. a lot of people are starting to expect the fed to cut in early 2023. it looks like that is probably too soon. >> yeah. might be. i want to show lisa's piece from this morning in barren. youd" the head of global policy who says, this makes perfect sense requesterring what happened with wal-mart last night, the markets are underappreciating that inflation is much higher than at any time in the modern fed era. the labor market sure is much tighter than normal, but to that point, andy, and lisa's point she highlights here, where do we see the real danger still ahead? we want to prepare our investor audience. >> liz, the biggest thing the fed can do is overtighten and as much as i think they're going to be hawkish tomorrow because they're window is limited, if they send the economy into a spiral

now, jerome powell's speech has become the catalyst for a powerful rally in the high-tech nasdaq stockmediately by 4%. and the s&p 500 broad market index at 2.5, thus players expressed hope that the fed will abandon its commitment to excessive tightening. lowered expectations of another rate hike by 75 points next year the market. now there is an active policy easing. however, these hopes may not be justified. as it was after the previous two meetings, when the rally soon turned into a bear market. rustam kasumov igor nedelkin lead bonds in yuan found their investor rusalo's debt securities in chinese currency caused a rush of demand for the yield of the debut issue. decreased to 3.9% during the subscription everything was so successful that the aluminum the next day the giant decided to collect applications for another issue with similar parameters. interest in such instruments will grow, as many banks and brokers introduce commissions for keeping dollars and euros in accounts, there are no such restrictions for yuan. but deposits in this currency bring no more than interest. experts

. >> jerome powell said while consumer spending and production are slowing, unemployment remains near 50-year lows. that suggests the u.s. is not currently in a recession. >> i do not think the u.s. is currently in a recession. >> whatever we're in today, whether you want to call it a recession or not, doesn't feel like a natural recession, at least a classic recession as we have had in previous periods. >> trevor: oh! it's a recession! possibly! but buy everything! we're all going to die! at some point. america might be in a recession or not. some signs say no, but some signs say yes. as we found out today the gross domestic product has gone negative for two quarters in a row. and that's generally a sign that you are in a recession. you be, it's like when you say i love you to your partner and they respond, "great." ( laughter ) that's a sign that your relationship is in a recession. ( laughter ) and in case you're wonder yg they call is "gross domestic product," it's because most of the economy is pretty gross. you see, a big chunk of america's g.d.p. comes from steve bannon's onlyf

at least give jerome powell credit for saying he botched it. it was president transitory. janet yellen has acknowledged the same. a lot of people say it's hard to orchestrate a soft landing. the fact of the matter is, rarely have we seen it in history and always the fear that in tightening to stamp out inflation, you stamp out the economy as well. >> martha: that's the tricky spot. that's is soft spot we're in right now. that's what matters. thanks, neil. happy monday. >> you too. >> martha: one of the most widely red stories calls for the president to quit his job. a few folks out there seem more than ready to sweep right in. gavin newsome, j.p.prisker and the vice president trying to straighten her approval numbers when we come back. fishing helps ease my mind. kinda like having liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. woah! look out! [sfx: submarine rising out of water ] [ sfx: minion spits bobber ] minions are bitin' today. [ sfx: submarine hatch closes, submarine dives ] ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ hello! minion

. >> federal reserve chairman -- jerome powell says he does not think the economy is in recession.

>> well, not too cheered when jerome powell says that were not facing a recession.is the same guy that a year ago was saying for the last 12 months that we weren't facing an inflation problem. remember, he was the one saying it was transitory, the inflation got worse and worse. track record of predicting things has been pretty woeful. i do think that we are in a soft recession right now, mike. will find out the real answer tomorrow at 8:30 in the morning when that official report comes out on the gdp, but most economists think it's going to be zero or negative and now will be two straight quarters of negative growth for the u.s. economy, but i would say the bigger problem right now for american workers, the reason that you have 80% of americans say the economy is on the wrong track, is because of that inflation dragon out there right now that is just bringing people's paychecks month after month. we estimate that about -- the average worker has lost about 3500? $4,000 and purchasing power because inflation is running so much faster than people's wages. three to imag

jerome powell has actually admitted that in testimony before congress, and yet he continues to driveo far having historically fast, aggressive, high interest rate increases if it's not going to help bring down a lot of the prices in our economy, what it can do is actually pitch this economy into a recession. so, i think that that's something the fed should consider and i think they should mott rate this aggressive attack >> you're right that the chairman has said that rates really can't affect supply, but they can affect demand, and wacker demand ostensibly lowers price. there seems to be some iota of effectiveness in that. >> sure, but what we're really talking about is the fed is trying to sharply raise rates so that businesses will contract, so that they will either cut hours for employees or lay employees off. that means a lot of pain imposed on people. look, think about it this way, with the interest rate increases. if they can't address a whole lot of the reasons that we have this inflation, but they can force a lot of people into layoffs and no income coming in, look at the br

we heard jerome powell talk about how pete doesn't think we are in recession and we have heard a lot about their focus on inflation and acknowledgment of the weaker data, maybe dovish straws. do you think then the fed, how far off, how far away is any fed pivot around the weakness in the data given the political pressure built. meghan: i think that's a very important question. i would say that we are beginning to hear signs of the pivot. right? how really endorsed the message of data dependence. not a like march 2 higher policy rates -- not a blind march the higher policy rates. they will have to be more thoughtful here about whether or not they can continue to deliver supersized rate hikes. we saw the market can interpret -- market interpret the message that way yesterday and that steepening of the treasury curve is really reflecting that. the uncertainty around what the fed is necessarily going to have to do. alix: at the same time you refer a summary of economic ejections from the last meeting with rate hikes when the market isn't expecting it. i get to some extent why it took a d

and fed chairman jerome powell says there could be more coming. >> inflation has obviously surprised over the past year and further surprises could be in store. we therefore will need to be nimble in responsing to incoming data. >> analysts say this means higher borrowing costs for many americans. >> going to make getting a mortgage more expensiexpensive, payments, et cetera. so those pressures, particularly for people that have any debt at all, are going to rise. >> rising interest rates have already been jacking up the cost of our mortgages for months. in the week ending july 21st, the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the u.s. averaged 5.54%. last year at the same time, it was under 3%. analysts say the effects of this latest rate hike on homeowners or prospective home buyers could be mixed. one expert says those people may not feel the pinch immediately because many banks had already figured these latest interest rate hikes into the rates they were charging. >> if you're a homeowner in the market today, you have already seen your opportunities limited by what's gone on. h

what chair jerome powell will say. there is a lot of uncertainties, things that the market and traders are bracing for. this is of course later in the week. annabelle: when markets were still relieved to have the fed's and put, we see the debate whether it is for the markets or economic health. what is the best course for the federal reserve? >> two high-profile wall street strategists were highlighted in a very important blue brick story today. morgan stanley and jp morgan, they have completely different views. sticky inflation will keep the fat on a hawkish path. they will hike right into a recession. you will not get a bullish stock signal. jp morgan sees inflation peaking now or soon, labor market softening. it can move to more bonds and a balanced path. they see a better chance in the second half of the year. what about u.s. recession risks? it is up 47.5%. moving up according to our latest bloomberg survey. according to the forecasters, these people determine the recession, they look at at incomes. you can see th

i don't go beneath the headline data, i stay with the headline data because that's where jerome powell is going to be. jonathan: the head of global rates, is this labor market data going to keep the light green for the fed to go 75 at the end of the month? >> we think so. the labor market is slowing. we are looking for 350,000. the fed wants the economy to slow. all the recession talk is premature right now. inflation is still a problem. they are emphasizing inflation right now. i would say the green light for 75 is done. the next meeting, we expect 50 basis point hikes. i don't think the fed will change their view. they want it to slow. tom: we are the only two on the planet, we looked at fixed income theory. what is the attribute that helps you determine your terminal rate gas? is it a finance attribute? is it an economic attribute? >> i'm glad you bring that up. where the fed ends up is an economic attribute. it's not just the economic view. when you talk about finance, that curve has been flattening. i think it's going to continue to flatten. this is all about the dominant rate as

the chairman of the fed jerome powell said he didn't believe the us was currently in recession, despitenomy, but added — the path to avoiding a recession is narrowing. today's increase is in the target range and the second the five basis point in as many meanings. while another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting, that is a decision that will depend on the data begets between and then. inflation is at a ito—year high in the uk, too — where big name brands including mcdonald's, coca—cola, and unilever are putting up prices in response. mcdonald's has raised the price of cheeseburgers for the first time in 14 years — as companies grapple with the impact of higher costs. here's our consumer affairs correspondent colletta smith. big names are putting prices up. over recent weeks, we have heard from huge household brands saying they are charging us more. today, it was mcdonald's.— was mcdonald's. what can i get a few? cheeseburger, _ was mcdonald's. what can i get a few? cheeseburger, please - was mcdonald's. what can i get a few? cheeseburger, please type| was

this is perhaps indicating that the markets do indeed trust the federal reserve and fed chair jerome powell and tammy inflation, which is raging across the united states right now. but let's remember that the stocks have rallied after several of these fed meetings, and that doesn't necessarily indicate that these gains will actually hold the question now is tomorrow, what we'll see, what the g d p figure figures. markets are still haven't forgotten about that. are we're recession. we'll see where the wind blows, powell of coursing, we are not in the recession, but as we say, there's not, that's not the only thing going on in markets right now. the big foreign tech are releasing their earnings this week. what do we heard so far? well, the talk of the town today is the meta figures. we are actually seeing that better has done its 1st revenue decline in its public history as a company. so this is coming after microsoft an alphabet doing better than had been anticipated. sending stocks rallying, but we'll just have to see what amazon, what, what apple, what into qualcomm have in store for the r

jerome powell saying another rate hike is it -- is possible while denying the u.s. is in a recession. treasuries advancing, they begin higher against the dollar. u.s. chipmakers get closer to a windfall in government money. david: am supposed to be doing the market update and the lights are about to turn on. there we go. the lack of forward guidance hopefully will offset the lack of lights we have previewed we will get to that nuance in a bit. as you can see, this weakness is suddenly coming through in the u.s. dollar, led by the strength were seeing in japanese currency, opening up a window for another matter all together. yields are continuing to fall. australia with a 20 basis point drop on the short end maybe because of that inflation makes we had yesterday. so it is a risk on session, i've yet to look at evidence of how much conviction the move is. yvonne: i think jay powell is probably patting himself on the back, talking about the supersize jumbo hikes and dropping the forward guidance. markets seem to be cheering the fact that they've really downplayed the r

the degrees of freedom, the optionality of jerome powell, trade on the back end of the gdp equation andmatters on consumption, a wall of tourism we have this year. we need a stable europe for all sorts of reasons. forget the heatwave, that is a one-off, we need your up to get its act together. jonathan: we talked about it a few times, the double-headed you get out of europe from weaker earnings and a weaker euro. it is something francine said earlier this morning, going through italy this summer, every second person, every second tourists, and american accent. tom: no question about it. greg told me on wall street week, you go to paris and there is basically an american outpost, the asians are not there because covid. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world with the first word, i'm the cook of debt. the european central bank on the verge of doing so big and has not done in 11 years, raise interest rates. policymakers may deviate from guidance of a court appoint hike and increase rates by twice that amount in the euro zone, se

they keep talking about the jobs numbers, but jerome powell said the job market is un-sustainably hot. that means employers will continue to have to raise wages in order to attract workers, which will only raise prices further, which just makes inflation worse and the looming recession that much more certain, charlie. >> yeah, no, it's -- the only thing that's worse than paying $6 a gallon of gas and getting a grocery bill for $500 is being told by the white house and other politicians and people like jay powell that oh, no, no, we're not in a recession. get over it. it's not that bad. it really is that bad, and i think you're so -- you're so right to point out the issue of what it puts a family through in order to get a mortgage to buy a house. the super rich, the people paying all this money to the democratic party, they're not affected by this but if you try to take out a mortgage to buy a home or refinance your house to get money to pay tuition for your kid, you're paying monstrously more money and people feel it and insulting them telling them it's not that bad is not a good stra

how fragile is jerome powell's bangkok? how fragile is his jakarta?eoffrey: all roads lead to beijing. there are no chinese tourists. it is still going to be a struggle. countries anticipating reopening , you cannot stand around an economy like that from service based into something more reliably contained. it is still going to be quite tricky. a lot are hiking. tom: on a relative basis, with the arthur burns like magnitudes of american central banking it witness banking of canada, how does e.m. adapt to that besides lifting rates like we saw the philippines this week? geoffrey: there were two ways. what is you have to move on rates which has been seen above and beyond market expectations. you have to realize how the rest of the world is doing. we are in a world of deglobalization. your previous sources of revenue will not be there anymore. invest domestically. no talking about 1998. there is no dollar leverage globally. as that barbell with u.s. equities on one side and u.s. dollar cash on the other side is this if the middle, e.m. in asia will be in

it will be interesting whether jerome powell signals that maybe they need to pull back and see how thesel hit the economy. if he comes out of the hawkish viewpoint, all systems go for jumbo size rate hikes, that will certainly unnerving investors and add to the view that the economy is heading for a steep slowdown headed by the u.s. anna: enda curran with your set up for the fed. >> bloomberg has learned that president biden will speak with the chinese leader tomorrow. the call comes amid fresh tensions over taiwan and the fresh possibility of a visit by house speaker pelosi in early august. beijing has warned it will take strong measures against any visit. a district on the outskirts of who had -- of wuhan has been locked down affecting more than a million people. authorities gave the order after four asymptomatic cases were found in the area. coca-cola has matched estimates or -- smashed estimates for second quarter sales, a 6% increase in organic revenue growth, twice as much as forecast. mcdonald's also reported second quarter sales topping estimates as consumers continued eating out

moments ago, damien published a note on the carnage this week in jerome powell's emerging markets. the basic idea is that in bond flows, price is down, five years of ian profitability, and it is wiped out. we think lawrence mcdonnell for attendance. he was just brilliant. do we agree? we've ignored china this week. i think we can agree. lisa: we've talked about as a peripheral story but it is more central. tom: i would say so. a busy half-hour -- were joined by our agent economics correspondent. what was the surprise here? it is always squishy with china data, but walk was -- what was the distinctive surprise? >> it was left by a big long dance in april and may. second-quarter growth came in at 0.4% it it was lower than expectations, and it really works the idea that china is possibly achieving his 5.5% of growth target. we've had a lot of other numbers as well. we just went over some of them. retail sales a minute 3.1% for june. then the headline for consumers recovering, but negative inflation effect for consumer rebound was actually quite soft even though unemployment fell, usef

abramowitz and tom keene, thrilled to be with you, looking into a critical week next week and for jerome powell and certainly for germany its fragmentation friday. jonathan: i would go further, it is the brink of recession thursday. in looking to the front end of the german bund curve, down 25 basis points is a big move. tom: copper does not come in, i am looking at chicago and copper tells me something different. oil giving the economic slowdown indicator. jonathan: the next talk, pmi's, and the date has not been terrific. down eight basis points on the 10 year periods to 79 on a 10-year yield. tom: again, we saw massive curve in version two -225 basis points. i believe we have a fed meeting coming up on thursday, but the yield dynamics seem so separate after what we missed -- witnessed yesterday, but -- all of us picking up the debris. jonathan: i think we are all confused about that news conference. just getting some numbers from twitter coming in at $1 billion, and adjusted revenue of 1.870 billion. that is a downside. the average monetize a bull daily average user, did i do that right? tom

it's jerome powell going to 3%, or institutionally, does he have to stick with 2%? >> he's going to have to stick with 2%. what i've been hoping is that we would have a little bit of inflation, and that would allow him to opportunistically say, we are above three, were not going down to two. given the credibility concerns which are overdone, but are real, they're not going to be able to say that. they can't say that until the next strategic review, which is 20 242025. what they can do is what is likely to happen is that they will bring inflation down, and maybe in the second quarter of 23, and maybe third quarter, they will get it down, so it down, so discerning with a three. there may be a recession echoes with it, and at that point, they're not going to ease up before that, but they will ease up, and it will do factor look like three. >> have to be careful here, but we have a cardinal surveillance rule. we don't do differential equations with the white house in the background, ever, but it is really important. 9% inflation. it is highly nonlinear, highly non-smoot

by the way, prudently kept silent to put out this fire, her successor in federal reserve system jerome powell, who has already raised the key rate of a good option three times. they don't have either to sacrifice growth for inflation reduction or inflation for growth, the dual threat posed by an economy that is noticeably slowing down while simultaneously struggling with skyrocketing prices has split administration allies, senators, elizabeth raven, many economists on the left, fear that rate hikes could result in job losses and reverse the gains made under the biden administration. while as others say the white house must step back as the fed takes drastic measures to bring down scorching inflation. in general , nothing else. cunning language, if everything is so good, then why are white house officials trying to rewrite the definition of a recession, no, we are not changing the definition of a recession. yes, you go to wikipedia, you could add jean-pierre corinne, a real battle of edits unfolded there in a day. the page about what a recession is was changed 47 times. as a result, the admini

all it comes down to is jerome powell says a strong economy, but he needs a weak job market. i do not get it. jonathan: 265 is the estimate for this morning, that will allow them to focus on inflation next week. we talked about it the last 24 hours, 8.8%, the median estimate for cpi, headlined next week. tom: we dovetail into the labor data, and drive forward to next week. forward to the july 27 fed meeting what does the jobs report mean to the fed meeting? 75 or 50 beeps? jonathan: 75 is the view from -- cursed. the fed president argued we could have that soft landing. i'm not sure how many people see it that way anymore. for percent on fed funds, but ultimately, a recession in the not-too-distant future. tom: we are confident -- the confidence is not there. the michigan confidence numbers and the others are, grim is the right word. how can we have a strong economy and grim confidence numbers? kailey: the dismal conference -- confidence numbers haven't translated to a serious reduction in activity. you are starting to see some sign of spending slowing down, but that is the f

chairman jerome powell says he doesn't think that the u.s. is in a recession but curbing inflation may bring some pain. >> we're trying to do just the right amount. we're not trying to have a recession. and we don't think we have to. we think that there is a path for us to be able to bring inflation down while sustaining a strong labor market. as i mentioned, along with in all likelihood some softening in labor market conditions. so that is what we're trying to achieve and we continue to think that there is a path to that. we know that the path has clearly narrowed really based on events that are outside of our control. and it may narrow further. >> the rate hike was welcome news on wall street with the dow and nasdaq each gaining more than 400 points. more now on the impact of the rate hike from brian todd. >> reporter: at his pawn 1407 in the kansas city area, denny russell sees a lot of new customers, people dealing with runaway inflation, selling off their personal items just to make ends people. >> people come in every day that they have

rally coming after the federal reserve chairman jerome powell suggested that the central bank could, is what investors heard on wall street from all of that talking yesterday. a key measure of america's economic growth gdp is due out in less than three hours, a second straight quarter of declining gdp could rev up the worries. forecast is for slight growth in the second quarter after that worrisome contraction there you see in quarter one. let's bring in john lear, chief economist at morning consult. welcome to the program. so nice to see you. these numbers will almost certainly be revised, but there is so much scrutiny. remind our viewers that recession is about more than just that gdp number. >> that's right. recession takes into account a wide range of factors, most notably i think jobs, payroll growth and consumer spending. and both those have held up relatively well thus far. so a little premature to say that we are in a recession although it is the case that certain pockets of americans out there are likely feeling as if we were in a recession gjust because of how elevated purc

they look through to jerome powell maybe pivoting and taking his foot off the gas here.we can proceed. >> you can look through the earnings. i think you have seen enough now that it's -- [inaudible] as there has been a -- as for looking through the fed. i think that it'll be a resounding no for me here. i think that people -- generally kind of look through and heard what they wanted to hear. i think the general idea is that he had a bit of a devilish tone. i heard aspects of it but he repeated dedication of fighting inflation. he mentioned that there would likely be weakness in the labor market. he continued to say that in order for us to move forward in the right direction you need this to see growth, well below. i think that i -- below potential for a protracted period of timeo for for a long period of time. something of that nature. all of the things -- all things there and then you couple in the fact that -- despite the two readings we aren't in a recession. the labor market remains strong. we will continue to focus on inflation and while we continue to see this stre

. >> reporter: chairman jerome powell says more hikes are likely. >> we understand how difficult it isparticularly for those living paycheck to paycheck. >> reporter: far higher than the fed's 2% target. that's forced kristin to cut back on her family's groceries. from >> we are not buying anything extra. >> reporter: jill schlesinger says the fed's action should have an impact soon. >> what is clear is that prices are heading lower. how fast that happens is unknown. >> reporter: on thursday, the commerce department released its new quarterly gross domestic product figures. wall street expects to see negative growth. a traditional sign of recession. >> we can label it whatever we want. >> reporter: schlesinger says the strong job market can protect consumers. >> what we really have to keep an eye on is the labor market. that is an indicator of where we head next. all right federal reserve's next chance to raise rates will be at a september meeting. >>> and a live look from capitol hill where senate democrats cleared a key hurdle in funding you climate programs. west virginia senator jo

in fact, fed chair jerome powell told lawmakers last week that the war in ukraine is not the primaryt we are seeing today. charles? charles: all right. hillary, thank you so much. all right, folks, i want you to check out this tweet. former obama economic adviser robert wolf says he supports a a federal gas tax holiday as long as it's tied to the, quote, putin price hike. now the author of that tweet, robert wolf. robert, you know, even if i was naive must have to think gasoline only started to skyrocket with the invasion of ukraine and president biden didn't declare war on fossil fuels, would it really be smart though to get to our roads get worse than they are because of vladimir putin? >> charles, thanks for having me on and, of course, you're not naive. i wouldn't want to be the one that said that. listen, i support a federal gas tax holiday for two reasons, one it would pass on to the consumer 18 cents, and if states followed, it would almost be 50% which is 10% of where gas is today. also i'm not only the only one that supports it. yesterday morning 72% of americans support it.

the federal reserve even though it did the supersized rate hike jerome powell hinted those rate hikes could slow down in the market adjusted its estimates to the rate hikes ending by the end of the year which would be a big deal considering the ongoing 2,023 and a second thing is earnings, they haven't been great and did better than a market thought and we are seeing big moves from companies like amazon and that is helping investor confidence. these things are pushing markets up. jack: you were joking about recession. the fed is using 75 basis points to slow the economy. by some data it is succeeding. everyone is asking are we in a recession? if not will we be in recession soon? ben: the market is acting like we had a recession and it will end. we saw a lot of industrial stocks with massive moves over the past few days and two quarters of negative gdp which is a technical definition of recession but not really one. it is too early to say. it will come down to the fed and whether it is tainted inflation. if it has in this rally, it will probably last and the economy will be doing fine

now, jerome powell's speech has become the catalyst for a powerful rally in the high-tech nasdaq stockediately rose by 4%, and the broad market index s&p 500 by 2.5 in this way, players expressed hope that the fed will abandon its commitment to excessive tightening, and in the rate market, expectations of another 75-point rate hike for next year's market have sharply decreased. now there is an active policy easing. however, these hopes may not be justified. as it was after the previous two meetings, when the rally soon turned into a bear market. rustam kasumov igor nedelkin to lead and complete the issue, i will remind you the exchange rates for today dollar 60 rubles. 21 kop. euro 61 exactly, and on this is all i have for now. roman thank you now with the latest message, the allied forces of russia dpr liberated the ugolgorsk thermal power plant, the ukrainian soloist has been holding the test since the end of may, turning it into a fortified area. our fighters recaptured the object extremely carefully without damaging the infrastructure. the russian foreign ministry said that they ha

jerome powell's fed pursues a painful and ineffective inflation cure. the senator writes quote, when the fed raise interest rates, increasing the cost of borrowing money, it becomes more expensive for businesses to invest in their operations. as a result, employees will slow hiring, cut hours and fire workers, leaving families with less money. in the bloodless language of economists, that is referred to as dampening demand. but make no mistake, she continues, if the fed cuts too much or too abruptly, the resulting recession will leave millions of people, disproportionately lower wage workers and workers of color, with smaller paychecks or no paycheck at all. is that where we are headed? and if so, what do people like senator warren think we should do to -- stem rising inflation? joining us now is massachusetts senator, elizabeth warren. senator, thank you for being on the show tonight. let me start by asking you. good to see you too. let me start by asking you what you make of the seemingly major, major deal announced by senator schumer and manchin. a,